Macro
BTC MACRO - Short to Long - My TakeHello everyone,
This is a result of about a year of analysis on Bitcoin, and I will explain my take.
First and foremost let’s understand the timing of the market - we have several large conduits this week - most importantly the NVIDIA earnings report in just a few hours. This news conduit should be fuel to see volatility enter the bitcoin chart.
Bitcoin has been in a steady upwards trajectory for 1.2 years now - without any major retracement to the downside.
We must ask the question - why? It’s of my opinion that what really moves bitcoin is the stop losses of leveraged positions. Think of these stop loss orders as buy / sell orders that are in place - without automatic fulfillment of price is above / below. In other words, the leveraged (key word) limit orders are in the chart already - as a result of stop loss orders of a direction of trading. Here we have a massive order block below us of long position stop losses - not only are these orders (sell orders) in place - they are leveraged. Meaning a trader with $100 in a long - using 100x - is creating a SELL order for $10,000 below his entry.
If we understand the current chart this way and look at the massive open gaps below us - we can view this as “propellant” to drop the price at incredible speed and distance. Think of this as a chain reaction of orders - not ordinary orders, but leveraged and multiplied orders. With liquidity leveraged, we can translate this into leveraged speed and distance as well.
At precisely the 21,500 to 22,000 location there is a bullish retest as I show with a pair of trendlines. We have the appearance of a bear trap (shown via the pair of bearish parallel lines) - and a measured pole height (shown) taking bitcoin to that exact location - 21,700 approximately.
This is a very large bull flag pattern that can execute a measured move to the 70-80k range following - as we know this is a range of great interest for bitcoin.
So while I do see us hitting this all time high - I don’t see that happening before the 22k zone is tapped very quickly. Not only is this a bullish retest with supporting patterns, we have massive order blocks in the chart to support this, and a substantial news conduit to support this event occurring.
This is my take on key bitcoin levels - and I trust I provide to you enough supporting evidence in the chart to demonstrate this is a product of many months of time and effort.
God speed and good luck to all. We all share the same goal - to understand this bizarre marketplace.
BTC Macro Halvings interpolated - 2020 cycle LOW is IN days awayFib time from previous cycles says - 2020 cycle LOW is IN or days away (by the end of 2022).
The interpolations says:
MAY-JUNE 2023 - BTC at 45 000 $ to 48 000 $
FEB-MAR 2024 - BTC at 15 000 $ to 16 000 $
NOV 2025 - BTC at more than 100 000 $
':)
U.S Core PCE Price Index (MoM)ECONOMICS:USCPCEPIMM
Core PCE prices in the US, which exclude food and energy,
rose by 0.2% from the previous month in December of 2023, aligned with market estimates, and picking up slightly from the 0.1% increase in November.
From the previous year,
Core PCE prices edged 2.9% higher,
undershooting market estimates of 3% to mark the lowest reading since February 2021.
The data extended the disinflation trend in prices measured by the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, consistent with previous signals of rate cuts to be delivered this year. Regarding the whole national PCE that includes energy and food, prices rose by 0.2% from the prior month and 2.6% from the prior year, consistent with expectations.
Prices for goods rose by less than 0.1% from 2022, while those for services remained elevated at 3.9%.
source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
ETH - TRIO RETEST 3️⃣Dear TradingView community and fellow traders,
I find the daily chart for ETH to be interesting as it appears to be forming one of my favorite patterns. What I call TRIO RETEST
Here is why the purple circle is a strong zone to keep an eye on:
1 => Overall Trend
ETH is bullish medium-term trading inside the rising broadening wedge in blue and now approaching the lower blue bound / trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
2 => Demand Zone
The green zone at 2250.0 is a strong demand.
3 => Oversold Zone
ETH is bearish short-term trading inside the falling channel in red and now approaching the lower red trendline which I consider an oversold zone.
As per my trading style:
As ETH approaches the purple circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break, and so on...)
📚 Hope you find this post useful. It's important to always adhere to your trading plan, including entry points, risk management strategies, and trade management techniques.
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard
Disclaimer: The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. It is important to do your own research and make informed decisions before entering any trades. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always be aware of the potential for losses, and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
ETHBTC is about to make a historical moveAnything that follows is not to be taken as financial advice.
This is the Binance weekly chart for ETHBTC, with a single indicator loaded on: the Bollinger Bands Width Percentile.
The BBWP is a volatility indicator that measures whether or not we should be looking for the price action of the examined asset to contract or expand in relation to its own past volatility, calculated by the BBW.
Simply put, it tells us if we should be expecting the asset to be in a mostly sideways price action, or if it's appropriate to look for expansion.
Make no mistake, volatility is a direction-neutral indicator, meaning it's inherently neither bullish nor bearish.
We can see some flashing red and blue bars in the background, they're there to warn us about an extremely high (red) volatility environment, or an extremely low (blue) one.
Generally, when the asset is in an extremely high volatility environment, it's wise to expect it to cool off, therefore looking for price action to generally reduce its turbulent behavior.
This implies the exact opposite for when the volatility is extremely low.
With default settings, which I'm running, extremely high volatility is considered to be between 98% and 100%, while extremely low volatility is found between 0% and 2%.
Let's focus on the blue bars for this analysis.
Only once in the history of this chart, two weeks straight of extremely low volatility can be observed.
From there, the expansion led to an initial move up, and then ultimately a move down of -26.95% from the open of next week to the lowest point of the move.
Right now, ETHBTC is waiting for a massive expansion after twelve weeks straight of extremely low volatility.
If it was to expand to the downside from this point, a move of roughly the same impact would see this asset retest the june 2022 low.
However, spending more time contracting, usually means having a more explosive move when the time comes.
In the case of a downside move, I don't think it would be too crazy to look for a retest of Q1 2021 highs, anywhere around the 0.045 level.
That would make for about a -33% move from here, but I'd say there's fair concern for said move ending up being more destructive than that.
This could happen along with BTCUSD breaking into a new bull market while ETHUSD fails to catch up just like it did in the past, although that's just speculation on my part.
Remember, volatility is direction-neutral, while price action might look bearish right now, there is no way to tell where a future sustained volatility expansion might lead this asset to.
Personally speaking, I believe that if it were to expand to the upside, a retest of the ATH would definetely be within reach, seeing as ETHBTC has been consolidating for about 22 months.
It would certainly result in a massive move, more than a 2x from here, since the ATH is around 0.15 and the asset is now trading at around 0.067, but we've seen crazier things in crypto.
Whenever the expansion happens, and wherever it brings ETHBTC to, good luck and stay safe.
AAPL TA 1-5-24 + MACRO OUTLOOK on STONKSAn outlook on Apple for the short term and long term outlook. As well as Macro Outlook on Stock. How will January play out. Will that give us a good read on the rest of 2024. How should we navigate the 1st and 2nd half of the year
EURJPY - Following The Bulls ↗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
📈 EURJPY has been overall bullish, trading inside the rising channel in blue and it is currently approaching the lower blue trendline.
Moreover, the zone 150.0 is a robust round number and demand zone.
🎯 Therefore, the highlighted blue circle represents a significant area to consider for potential buy setups , as it marks the intersection of the green demand and lower blue trendline.
📚 As per my trading style:
As EURJPY approaches the blue circle zone, I will be actively searching for bullish reversal setups to capture the next bullish impulse movement.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
Will History Repeat With LTCLtc is riding a macro support while coming to the end of this correction/ bear phase. RSI is at a historic value that has resulted in reversal highlighted by the white vertical lines.
Both downtrends have nearly identical timeframes.
This could be a place to take a small position in LTC.
This also seems like a make or break position for Litecoin in the PA.
I am also going to add a chart looking at the Ltc/btc pairing.
NFA
Do your own DD
Novice here
The most important chart in your trading career.Merry Christmas to all, I hope you and yours are well.
My present to you this year is the one chart you should ALL be watching. SPX/GOLD
Risk On (Equities), Risk Off (Gold). It will save you a TON of time/headaches, if you follow this chart.
In this video I go over why you should use it. How your portfolio would have been managed the last 50yr, and at the end give a quick method for managing your ratio between Risk On/Off.
As always, good luck in your trading, have fun, and practice solid risk management.
LONG a Falling Interest Rate! - TLTNASDAQ:TLT is an ETF that tracks value of United States Treasury Bonds in the time range of the 20-30-year bonds. With this ETF tracking the bond value it will rise with the decrease in these bond yields as the previous bonds offering higher % rates increase in value.
I am bullish on TLT for a few reasons that are summarized in the bullets below
- Interest Rates are at their highest levels in around 20 years and history would show that following these peaks in the 5.5%-7% range tends to be a sharp fall of interest rates usually due to a general moderate or severe economic downturn needing economic stimulus with low rates
- Along with the peak thesis, in the current economic state of America, it has been generally discussed by Fed Presidents that rate slowdown / rate hike pauses are starting. The FedWatch tool from CMEGroup shows that traders predict the highest rates will not go any higher, and actually start being cut in Early Spring 2024. Due to this data, it is definitely important to realize the risk/reward of this trade on how the downside is minimal with the current economic conditions proving interest rates will likely not move higher, and definitely not more than a last 25bps hike for this rate cycle considering no unprecedented events occur.
- Another staple to this bullish thesis is against the Federal Reserve. I strongly believe the Federal Reserve bluffs intentionally during their public conferences and talks. Recalling the inflationary period following COVID, the Fed repeatedly spoke out on this inflation being transitory while CPI rocketed to record highs in decades. I believe they like to not inform the public to the 100% truth and locked room talks. The Fed has came out and said they are quite against publicizing a rate pause officially / begin cutting rates and I believe this is a bluff. As the Fed claims to wait for data, I believe that data is showing, and will continue to show stronger economic struggle from the effects on high-interest rates. As unemployment just ticked up and probably will continue, rates will start to drop fast as soon as the Fed starts. Treasury Yields would likely dump prior to all of this as the anticipation begins to flow into the markets. Lastly, I think the Fed tends to deceive the public to try and not heavily move the markets in a short time.
- Overall the data should start to pour in on economic slow down as student loan repayments resume, credit delinquencies continue to rise, housing market cools, unemployment ticking up, and more can feed to a sharp drop in CPI as aggregate US demand settles.
The Fed will act on this slowdown and will need to sharply cut interest rates, especially if they wait too long.
- Technicals on NASDAQ:TLT also look strong with a major demand zone, a dailydouble bottom and a diagonal trendline supports the price level. TTM_Squeeze also backs up a possible end to the downside. Below 89 area could be a solid Exit area for risk-management.
Any Cut in Rates, or anticipation in rate cuts can send TLT flying with bond yields tumbling.
Bonus: NASDAQ:TLT also provides a safe hedge to a market collapse or recession. Because market recessions would spark a cut in rates to help fuel a recovery, while stocks may tumble, this ETF would rally on a decline of interest rates to help stimulate a falling economy.
Thesis : long Commons or 2025 dated Credit Spreads
Head and Shoulders Pattern Forming on the DXY Dollar IndexWhen the dollar is running, most other assets are dropping. This has been my experience in the markets and is why the DXY is on my watchlist and is ALWAYS one of the first charts that I check before jumping into the markets. When the DXY is high, that means that people are demanding dollars, and when it's dropping, those dollars are flowing into other assets.
Learning to watch the DXY and it's movements will give you some good edge in the markets. Not everything will be effected. There are always other market conditions to watch for, news, etc that can move the markets as well, but keeping your eye on what the USD is doing is certainly something you want to add to your trading routine.
So the Head and Shoulders pattern is a strong reversal pattern in the markets. Nothing is ever 100% and the pattern could fail, so you always have to be ready for that. The regular Head and Shoulders is a bearish reversal pattern meaning we have found the local top in that market at that time. An Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is the opposite. It usually shows at a market bottom and indicates the possibility of bullish movement.
What we see here is that the DXY is knocking on the door of a breakout of this pattern and if it keeps going up, well, you will want your trading account to be in the dollar, or looking for shorting opportunities in other assets like crypto and FOREX pairs, that is if you are trading futures or options. If you are trading spot, this is the time to be in the dollar and waiting for your chosen asset to hit a fire sale clearance price, then go in an scoop up what you can with what you have!
Of course none of this is financial advice, just some things I have learned along my journey in this crazy world of trading that has helped me make some successful trades.
As always make sure you have a solid risk management plan before diving into the deep end! Doing this will help you gain some edge in the markets and trade logically!
Respect the pump - USDT.D breaking supportTime to get off the sidelines and respect the pump.
If the ongoing L2 rally isn't enough of a wake-up call, check out USDT Dominance, which is putting in lower lows and breaking through a significant previous resistance level with increasing volume to back it up. Also, looking at VPVR, there's also very little volume to stop this trend at least until it retests the 200 SMA, which is not far off.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce off of that corresponding with a slight retrace for some of these coins as traders take some profit, but at this point my bias is bullish.
We are so back.
Happy trades,
CD
BTC - Still Strong 🏆Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
🏹 After breaking above the orange symmetrical triangle, BTC initiated a new parabolic impulse and has been bullish trading within the ascending red channel.
Presently, BTC is hovering near the upper boundary of the channel, which could potentially lead to a bearish correction.
📉 In such a scenario , as BTC approaches the intersection of the lower red trendline and $40,000, we will be on the lookout for trend-following buying opportunities.
📈 Concurrently , for the bulls to assert dominance aggressively, a decisive break above the current minor high at $44,500 is crucial. In this scenario, a movement towards the $48,000 resistance level can be anticipated.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
Let's see how this gold chart plays out over the next six years!Here's a long-term perspective I have not seen and will be interested to follow.
I think bias needs to be removed. The bulls will see a potential shot to the MOON. The bears will see a likely hard spill.
NEWS FLASH: This is a new and crazy world! EVERYTHING IS IN PLAY!
If this gets above $2200 in 2024, it could be the start of something epic.
If we see the $1700s in 2024; then (eek) I'm nervous.
All I know for sure is I look fwd. to watching this every quarter for the next several years.
Bitcoin - Back Inside The Range? 📦Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
📌 on Weekly: Left Chart
As per my last analysis, BTC is still hovering around the 38,000 - 40,000 resistance zone.
🏹 To sustain bullish control and assert dominance from a macro perspective, a crucial requirement is a weekly candle close above 40,000. Such a development would likely lead to a parabolic movement, aiming for the 50,000 resistance level.
📌 on H4: Left Chart
Meanwhile, considering BTC's proximity to a resistance zone, there remains a possibility of bearish intervention, potentially pushing it back into a range reminiscent of the 30,000 to 32,000 range.
📉 To trigger the bearish scenario, a break below the last significant low in red at 35,670 is required.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
Gold - Macro View 🌎Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📌 Monthly: Left Chart
From a macro perspective, Gold has been generally bullish, trading within the rising brown channel.
For the bulls to maintain control, a break above the 2075.0 level is essential. In this scenario, a continuation toward the upper boundary of the brown channel can be anticipated.
📌 Weekly: Right Chart
Meanwhile, from a medium to long-term perspective, Gold appears to be confined within a range, currently nearing its upper boundary.
As long as the 2075.0 resistance holds, the possibility of a bearish correction persists. Confirmation of a bearish reversal setup would depend on lower timeframes.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
GREED, GREED, GREED but what follows?About a month back, I made a solid move in the market that sparked a strong rally. Now, as we near the end of a strong earnings season, I'm in a neutral position, but I'm taking steps to secure gains by trimming my positions. I reckon a decent pullback would be beneficial before considering further upward movement. There's quite a few gaps to fill due to some impulsive buying, and I believe reallocating capital is crucial for a healthier market, especially considering how much weight big tech holds in the SPY.
NVIDIA's earnings showed remarkable strength. They surpassed already optimistic expectations by a significant 10%. The $600 target set by premium sellers seemed overly ambitious, yet those sellers managed to benefit from the earnings report released last week.
Many institutional investors are operating under the assumption of a smooth landing in 2024, envisioning reduced rates, a depreciating US Dollar, a weakened Chinese macroeconomy, and sustained dominance in Large Cap Tech. The consensus among fund managers leans towards the belief that the Fed's rate hike cycle is nearing its end, with expectations of forthcoming decreases in short-term rates. Additionally, there's a noticeable shift of interest towards Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and Japanese stocks.
(Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, BLOOMBERG)
A Bearish case for USDINRUSDINR : A probable lower high in the India's Forex Reserves, indicating that RBI is offloading dollars. A case for move down in the USDINR, thus the appreciating local currency.
Foreign flows into India to strengthen further.
#Nifty #BankNifty #StockMarket
Are Recession Fears Still Looming? Gold is Flying
Gold has enjoyed an impressive rally over the last 5 weeks - up 6% in the month of October. Historically, gold has always been the quintessential “flight-to-quality” asset. Whenever there are geopolitical or macroeconomic fears permeating financial markets, gold has outperformed. As it stands, December gold is on the brink of retesting the psychologically significant $2,000/oz level. So is the recent price strength evidence of investors’ fears of a looming recession? What other evidence would support this?
www.tradingview.com
Crude Oil is Crying
Crude oil has fallen as sharply as gold has rallied. Since the swing high to 89.85 on October 29th, crude oil prices have fallen more than $13/barrel - settling at $72.90 on Thursday. Price contractions of this magnitude are typically demand driven, which would be another feather in the cap of demand growth fears on behalf of market participants. But, how could you explain the recent performance of the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000? In short - interest rates. As we near what is expected to be the end of the Fed’s rate hike cycle, equities have performed very well in anticipation of rates eventually coming down. The primary reason that the Fed would halt rate hikes, or begin lowering rates would come as a result of economic slowdowns.
Stocks Are Strong
All in all, the American economy has proven resilient. The rally underway in the equity markets has been substantiated by strong economic data, and disinflationary CPI readings. The proverbial “canary in the coal mine” could be consumer credit and lower-than-normal personal savings rates. However, there are very few signs of a robust economic breakdown coming in the immediate future in the United States.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
BTC - Macro View 🌐Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
📈 Following the rejection of the 25,000 support, BTC experienced a significant 50% surge , forming another bullish impulse that confirms the ongoing upward trend.
Consequently, we've identified and outlined a rising channel in orange.
BTC is currently approaching the upper boundary of the orange channel, coinciding with the 40,000 resistance zone.
🏹 To sustain bullish control and assert dominance from a macro perspective, a crucial requirement is a weekly candle close above 40,000. Such a development would likely lead to a parabolic movement, aiming for the 50,000 resistance level.
📉 Meanwhile , considering BTC's proximity to a formidable resistance zone, there remains a possibility of bearish intervention, potentially pushing it back into a range reminiscent of the 25,000 to 30,000 range.
This scenario's confirmation would depend on lower timeframes, especially if a bearish reversal setup is triggered.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
ebay is on sale 🛒Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 EBAY has exhibited an overall bullish trend , trading above the orange and blue trendlines.
At present, EBAY is undergoing a correction phase and it is currently approaching a strong support zone 30 - 34
🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green support and lower blue and orange trendlines acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #EBAY approaches the lower red circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
JNJ - Macro View 🌐Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 JNJ has exhibited an overall bullish trend, trading within the ascending wedge pattern outlined in blue. It is presently nearing the lower boundary/blue trendline.
At present, JNJ is undergoing a correction phase and is trading within the descending red channel. It is currently approaching the lower limit and a highlighted demand zone in green.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green demand and lower blue and red trendlines acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As JNJ approaches the lower purple circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
