Get started

Macro

GBP/JPY Outlook (25 January 2022)Overall, GBP/JPY is ranging across. Recently, GBP/JPY broke the support zone of 153.800. The UK flash PMI data released yesterday indicated a slight slowdown in business activities in both the manufacturing and services sectors. Flash Manufacturing PMI (Actual: 56.9, Forecast: TBA, Previous: 57.9 revised from 57.6) Flash Services PMI (Actual: 53.3, Forecast: TBA, Previous: 53.1 revised from 53.2) Currently, GBP/JPY is testing the resistance zone of 153.800 and the next support zone is at 151.000. Look for short-term selling opportunities of GBP/JPY if it bounces off the resistance zone of 153.800.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
1
GBP/USD Outlook (25 January 2022)Overall, GBP/USD is ranging across. Recently, GBP/USD broke below the key level of 1.35. The UK flash PMI data released yesterday indicated a slight slowdown in business activities in both the manufacturing and services sectors. Flash Manufacturing PMI (Actual: 56.9, Forecast: TBA, Previous: 57.9 revised from 57.6) Flash Services PMI (Actual: 53.3, Forecast: TBA, Previous: 53.1 revised from 53.2) GBP/USD’s next support zone is at 1.33800 and the next resistance zone is at 1.36000. Look for short-term selling opportunities of GBP/USD.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
EUR/JPY Outlook (25 January 2022)Overall, EUR/JPY is ranging across. The series of eurozone flash PMI data releases yesterday indicated that business activities continue to expand. Also, the services sector in Germany has rebounded from contraction into expansion. French Flash Manufacturing PMI (Actual: 53.1, Forecast: TBA, Previous: 55.6 revised from 54.9) French Flash Service PMI (Actual: 55.5, Forecast: TBA, Previous: 57.0 revised from 57.1) German Flash Manufacturing PMI (Actual: 60.5, Forecast: TBA, Previous: 57.4 revised from 57.9) German Flash Services PMI (Actual: 52.2, Forecast: TBA, Previous: 48.7 revised from 48.4) Flash Manufacturing PMI (Actual: 59.0, Forecast: TBA, Previous: 58.0) Flash Services PMI (Actual: 51.2, Previous: 53.1 revised from 53.3) Currently, EUR/JPY is testing the support zone of 128.800 and the next resistance zone is at 130.000. Look for short-term selling opportunities of EUR/JPY if it breaks the support zone of 128.800.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
EUR/USD Outlook (25 January 2022)Overall, EUR/USD is ranging across. Recently, EUR/USD bounced up from the key level of 1.13. The series of eurozone flash PMI data releases yesterday indicated that business activities continue to expand. Also, the services sector in Germany has rebounded from contraction into expansion. French Flash Manufacturing PMI (Actual: 53.1, Forecast: TBA, Previous: 55.6 revised from 54.9) French Flash Service PMI (Actual: 55.5, Forecast: TBA, Previous: 57.0 revised from 57.1) German Flash Manufacturing PMI (Actual: 60.5, Forecast: TBA, Previous: 57.4 revised from 57.9) German Flash Services PMI (Actual: 52.2, Forecast: TBA, Previous: 48.7 revised from 48.4) Flash Manufacturing PMI (Actual: 59.0, Forecast: TBA, Previous: 58.0) Flash Services PMI (Actual: 51.2, Previous: 53.1 revised from 53.3) Currently, EUR/USD is trading down towards the key level of 1.13. Its next support zone is at 1.12000 and the next resistance zone is at 1.13800. Look for short-term selling opportunities of EUR/USD if it breaks below the key level of 1.13.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
AUD/USD Outlook (25 January 2022)Overall, AUD/USD is ranging across. Recently, AUD/USD bounced off the support zone of 0.71000. The Australian CPI q/q data (Forecast: TBA, Previous: 0.8%) will be released later at 0830 (GMT+8). Australian banks will be closed tomorrow in observance of Australia Day. Expect lower trading volatility and volume during the usual Australian market hours. AUD/USD’s next support zone is at 0.71000 and the next resistance zone is at 0.73000. Look for short-term selling opportunities of AUD/USD.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
USD/JPY Outlook (25 January 2022)Overall, USD/JPY is trending downwards. The Japanese Flash Manufacturing PMI data (Actual: 54.6, Forecast: 55.0, Previous: 54.3 revised from 54.2) released yesterday indicated a slight slowdown in the manufacturing sector this month. The Bank of Japan Core CPI y/y data (Forecast: 0.7%, Previous: 0.8%) will be released later at 1300 (GMT+8). Currently, USD/JPY is trading towards the resistance zone of 114.200 and its next support zone is at 112.800. Look for short-term selling opportunities of USD/JPY if it bounces off the resistance zone of 114.200.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
1
USD Overview (25 January 2022)Yesterday, USD strengthened against all major currencies. The flash PMI data released yesterday indicated that business activities expanded at a slower pace in January. Flash Manufacturing PMI (Actual: 55.0, Forecast: TBA, Previous: 57.7 revised from 57.8) Flash Services PMI (Actual: 50.9, Forecast: TBA, Previous: 57.6 revised from 57.5) The Conference Board Consumer Confidence data (Forecast: 111.9, Previous: 115.8) will be released later at 2300 (GMT+8).
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
GBP/JPY Outlook (24 January 2022)Overall, GBP/JPY is trending upwards. Recently, GBP/JPY traded into the support zone of 153.800. The UK flash PMI data will be released later at 1730 (GMT+8). Flash Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: TBA, Previous: 57.9 revised from 57.6) Flash Services PMI (Forecast: TBA, Previous: 53.1 revised from 53.2) Currently, GBP/JPY is bouncing off the support zone of 153.800 and the next resistance zone is at 156.000. Look for short-term selling opportunities of GBP/JPY only if it breaks the support zone of 153.800.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
1
EUR/JPY Outlook (24 January 2022)Overall, EUR/JPY is ranging across. The French flash PMI data will be released later at 1615 (SGT). French Flash Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: TBA, Previous: 55.6 revised from 54.9) French Flash Service PMI (Forecast: TBA, Previous: 57.0 revised from 57.1) The German Flash PMI data will be released later at 1630 (SGT). German Flash Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: TBA, Previous: 57.4 revised from 57.9) German Flash Services PMI (Forecast: TBA, Previous: 48.7 revised from 48.4) The eurozone flash PMI data will be released later at 1700 (SGT). Flash Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: TBA, Previous: 58.0) Flash Services PMI (Forecast: TBA, Previous: 53.1 revised from 53.3) Currently, EUR/JPY is bouncing off the support zone of 128.800 and the next resistance zone is at 130.000. Look for short-term selling opportunities of EUR/JPY if it breaks the support zone of 128.800.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
2
EUR/USD Outlook (24 January 2022)Overall, EUR/USD is ranging across. Recently, EUR/USD bounced up from the key level of 1.13. The French flash PMI data will be released later at 1615 (SGT). French Flash Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: TBA, Previous: 55.6 revised from 54.9) French Flash Service PMI (Forecast: TBA, Previous: 57.0 revised from 57.1) The German Flash PMI data will be released later at 1630 (SGT). German Flash Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: TBA, Previous: 57.4 revised from 57.9) German Flash Services PMI (Forecast: TBA, Previous: 48.7 revised from 48.4) The eurozone flash PMI data will be released later at 1700 (SGT). Flash Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: TBA, Previous: 58.0) Flash Services PMI (Forecast: TBA, Previous: 53.1 revised from 53.3) EUR/USD’s next support zone is at 1.12000 and the next resistance zone is at 1.13800. Look for short-term selling opportunities of EUR/USD.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
AUD/USD Outlook (24 January 2022)Overall, AUD/USD is ranging across. Recently, AUD/USD broke below the key level of 0.72. The Australian flash PMI data released earlier today indicated a contraction in the services sector while the manufacturing sector slowed down in January. Flash Manufacturing PMI (Actual: 55.3, Forecast: NA, Previous: 57.7 revised from 57.4) Flash Services PMI (Actual: 45.0, Forecast: NA, Previous: 55.1) The Australian CPI q/q data (Forecast: TBA, Previous: 0.8%) will be released tomorrow at 0830 (GMT+8). Currently, AUD/USD is trading up towards the key level of 0.72. Its next support zone is at 0.71000 and the next resistance zone is at 0.73000. Look for short-term selling opportunities of AUD/USD if it bounces down from the key level of 0.72.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
USD/CAD Outlook (24 January 2022)Overall, USD/CAD is trending downwards. Recently, USD/CAD broke above the key level of 1.25. The Canadian retail sales data released last Friday indicated a slowdown in overall retail sales in November. Core Retail Sales m/m (Actual: 1.1%, Forecast: 1.1%, Previous: 1.5% revised from 1.3%) Retail Sales m/m (Actual: 0.7%, Forecast: 1.2%, Previous: 1.6%) USD/CAD’s next support zone is at 1.24500 and its next resistance zone is at 1.26100. Look for short-term buying opportunities of USD/CAD.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
Stocks/Macro - SPX Blowoff Top of the Debt BubbleIdea for Stocks: - I think we will decline to Q2 2022 at the least. - IMO, Market participants have completely misjudged inflation expectations and currency devaluation and mispositioned. Market seems largely positioned for goldilocks/reflation, inflation and growth, but nothing could be further from the truth. Inflation fears will not be talked about in 2022. - Therefore, the next reflexive move will be volatile. We are likely to have a significant drawdown by EOY. Systemic Liquidity: - Credit contraction has already begun. Monetary tightening began long ago, and QE tapering (which is undeniable tightening) is about to begin. It is credit inflation which drives both risk asset prices and inflation, while systemic liquidity flows are the transmission mechanism. These things are declining and have been for a while. - TGA Balance is now at pre-covid levels (inverse of TGA is correlated with equities, as this is a source of liquidity of the Fed), as well as RRP over $1T, to mop up liquidity (no credit is created based on that). - China's Credit Impulse peaked in Q3 2020, making a double top (surprise surprise), and turned negative in Q2 2021. CCI takes about 4Q for negative impact of outflows to impact the market + economy. - Which lead to a quarter later, C5 Central Banks' balance sheet flows (growth rate) peaking. These liquidity outflows have a 3Q delay in affecting Core PCE (inflation) + equities. - CCI + C5 Central Bank Balance Sheets liquidity flows (2nd derivative): - QE Taper is expected to end by mid 2022, and interest rates are expected to be raise then, which coincides with Q4 delay of CCI turning negative. Interesting how everything is timed together, perhaps Fed want to appear in control, when this was pre-ordained more than 4Q ago. Macro Drivers: - FB misses revenue. Snap drops 30% after earnings. Growth to decline and tech misses to be a trend. - FOMC and NFP upcoming, taper likely to be announced for November or December. - Market is also continues to pull forward the pricing in of rate hikes, starting in 2022. - Many, if not all market components are at their 100D 2 Std Deviations: - Small Caps, have not broken out but rather likely to test the lows next: - Oil will likely pullback, and experience a glut in 2022: - Copper, early double top, and likely to lead down: - Gold, Wyckoff Distribution. Sorry, but there will be no hyperinflation and USD will not devalue for the time being: - Crypto, the futures ETFs likely marked the top. Negative roll yield will kill the price for a few years: - Credit, never really confirmed any high but remained at lows: - Yields, real rates will do a headfake and reverse, while sentiment seems to be that treasuries will collapse. On the contrary, I think treasuries will likely be the best performing asset class for the next few years: A good top signal is when DXY, VIX, front month VX has positive correlation with equities, which is happening now. - DXY refuses to decline and found a base for the next leg up: - VIX + MOVE. Volume stopper on 100D -2 Std Dev, high degree of spread with front months and with UST vol. We're waiting on the yields reversal and bond options traders have already predicted it. Transmission mechanism to equities UST -> MOVE -> VIX -> ES. Likely to recapture this support and re-test the highs. We will soon get to the promised land of VIX compression unwind: Market Pulse: - Pension fund allocations are largely over, as well as tech earnings to end this week + the stock buybacks. Real earnings yield is negative. - Bearish seasonality of Oil, which largely has been driving the market. - In this last stage, the gamma squeezes in TSLA seems to be driving up the markets, but obviously this isn't to last. GLHF - DPT
SP:SPXShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
23
SP 500 large count, Primary count 4 wave of the 5thThinking out loud trying to make sense of it all.. Still thinking we have another push up to come before the market makes a larger top. The move could certainly blow off more but I think 5400 range is conservative if we do have a 5th to come. Growth sector is the most beat up and the value rotation doesn't make sense as they are over represented by businesses that will be deeply disrupted by exponential technologies(EV/Hyrdogen/Solar/Biotech/Crypto/3d printing/AI). That seems the best long term sector to rotate to in my opinion. Either way everything will be affected by the massive shift in the underlying and antiquated finance system underpinning everything. Some are calling tops now but historically the market still rises for the first rate rises. But the slowing economy and likely peak in inflation over the last month may tip the feds hand early and maybe they only get a couple of hikes in. If there is a surprise to be had its more likely dovish than hawkish. And it seems unlikely we get concensus to spur growth in government. Deflation likely wins on multiple fronts before inflation gets another hand when the system breaks. The major unknown is exponential growth and the pivot to it...growth will be massive when it ramps up the curve, half of the growth occurs in the last doubling. Many forces colliding. Good luck out there. Cash flow is king.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by jlantrip