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Macro

GBP/JPY Outlook (20 December 2021)Overall, GBP/JPY is trending downwards. Recently, GBP/JPY broke the support zone of 151.000 The UK Retail Sales data (Actual: 1.4%, Forecast: 0.8%, Previous: 1.1% revised from 0.8%) released last Friday indicated that consumer spending rose more than expected in November. Currently, GBP/JPY is trading down towards the key level of 150. Its next support zone is at 148.900 and the next resistance zone is at 151.000. Look for short-term selling opportunities of GBP/JPY if it breaks below the key level of 150.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
USD/JPY Outlook (20 December 2021)Overall, USD/JPY is ranging across. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept interest rate unchanged at -0.10% during their monetary policy meeting last Friday. The central bank decided to extend its Special Funds-Supplying Operations to Facilitate Financing in Response to the Novel Coronavirus by 6 months until end of September 2022. The BoJ also tapered its coupon payments and corporate bonds purchases. Starting from April 2022, the central bank will be purchasing an amount of coupon payments and corporate bonds at an amount similar to the pre-pandemic period. USD/JPY’s next support zone is at 112.800 and the next resistance zone is at 115.300. Look for short-term buying opportunities of USD/JPY.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
GBP/USD Outlook (20 December 2021)Overall, GBP/USD is trending downwards. Recently, GBP/USD broke below the key level of 1.33. The UK Retail Sales data (Actual: 1.4%, Forecast: 0.8%, Previous: 1.1% revised from 0.8%) released last Friday indicated that consumer spending rose more than expected in November. Currently, GBP/USD is testing the support zone of 1.32200 and its next resistance zone is at 1.33800. Look for short-term selling opportunities of GBP/USD if it breaks the support zone of 1.32200.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
1
NZD/USD Outlook (20 December 2021)Overall, NZD/USD is trending downwards. Recently, NZD/USD rejected the resistance zone of 0.67900. The New Zealand Westpac Consumer Sentiment data (Actual: 99.1, Forecast: NA, Previous: 102.7) released earlier today indicated that the surveyed consumers are turning pessimistic on the economic conditions of the country. NZD/USD’s next support zone is at 0.65400 and the next resistance zone is at 0.67900. Look for short-term selling opportunities of NZD/USD.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
Bitcoin – Significant RSI and OBV bullish divergencesHey everyone. Please note that this is NOT financial advice. So after the FED announced in November that they would begin tapering sooner than expected and might raise interest rates sooner as well, institutions and investors started de-risking, US stocks started dropping and Bitcoin corrected 38% from its all-time high of 69k to 42,8k. Bitcoin has then recovered some of its losses and entered an accumulation phase that has been lasting for the past two weeks. As of late, Bitcoin has been highly correlated to the S&P 500. This is mainly due to the fact that it is treated as a high-risk asset. So if institutions and investors are de-risking because of the upcoming tighter monetary policies, this means stocks and Bitcoin will inevitably be dropping. But since markets and Bitcoin are forward-looking, de-risking had already begun when the FED made its announcement and is probably close to being completed. Yesterday, JPMorgan quant guru Marko Kolanovic made a prediction that short sellers will get squeezed soon. He based his prediction on the fact that hedge funds are de-risking and shorting the market while liquidity is drying up and large short positions will likely need to be closed before January. This means that an end-of-year rally for stocks and Bitcoin could be around the corner. To further support this macro bullish prediction, I have found on the Bitcoin daily chart 2 bullish divergences, one on the RSI and the other on OBV. As you will notice from the chart, during the past two accumulations (July and September), Bitcoin has printed OBV bullish divergences just before rallying. This time around, an RSI bullish divergence has also emerged, which creates a strong confluence between both indicators. I know many of you may have turned bearish recently as the markets in general are painting a pretty gloom picture. But I believe that an epic end-of-year rally is still possible considering the macro conditions that seem favorable, the Bitcoin on-chain and futures data that is very bullish and the indicators that seem to point in the same bullish direction. So for now, I say patience and hodl. Christmas is right around the corner. Cheers.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by janvitos
3
EUR/JPY Outlook (17 December 2021)Overall, EUR/JPY is ranging across. The series of eurozone flash PMI data released yesterday indicated that overall business activities in the eurozone continue to expand. However, the services sector in Germany contracted due to the fourth wave of COVID infections. French Flash Manufacturing PMI (Actual: 54.9, Forecast: 55.4, Previous: 55.9 revised from 54.6) French Flash Service PMI (Actual: 57.1, Forecast: 55.9, Previous: 57.4 revised from 58.2) German Flash Manufacturing PMI (Actual: 57.9, Forecast: 57.0, Previous: 57.4 revised from 57.6) German Flash Services PMI (Actual: 48.4, Forecast: 50.9, Previous: 52.7 revised from 53.4) Flash Manufacturing PMI (Actual: 58.0, Forecast: 57.8, Previous: 58.4 revised from 58.6) Flash Services PMI (Actual: 53.3, Forecast: 54.2, Previous: 55.9 revised from 56.6) Also, the European Central Bank (ECB) held its monetary policy unchanged during their meeting yesterday. Regarding the central bank’s Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP), it will slow down the pace of asset purchases before ending it in March 2022. The ECB will also be purchasing €40 billion of assets in the second quarter, before toning down to €30 billion of assets purchase in the third quarter and €20 billion of assets from October 2022 onwards. ECB President Lagarde mentioned during the press conference that it is unlikely a rate hike will take place in 2022 given the under circumstances. Currently, EUR/JPY is trading up towards the key level of 129. Its next support zone is at 128.500 and its next resistance zone is at 130.000. Look for short-term buying opportunities of EUR/JPY if it breaks above the key level of 129.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
GBP/JPY Outlook (17 December 2021)Overall, GBP/JPY is trending downwards. Recently, GBP/JPY broke the resistance zone of 151.000 The Bank of England (BoE) surprised the market with an interest rate hike of 0.15% during their meeting yesterday. Eight out of nine committee members voted for a rate hike. Also, all nine members voted for QE to remain unchanged. The UK Retail Sales data (Forecast: 0.8%, Previous: 0.8%) will be released later at 1500 (GMT+8). GBP/JPY’s next support zone is at 151.000 and the next resistance zone is at 153.800. Look for short-term buying opportunities of GBP/JPY.
Long
by JinDao_Tai