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Macro

USD Overview (17 December 2021)Yesterday, USD weakened against all major currencies. The housing data released yesterday indicated an increase in the number of issued building approvals and the number of residential buildings that began construction. Building Permit (Actual: 1.71M, Forecast: 1.66M, Previous: 1.65M) Housing Starts (Actual: 1.68M, Forecast: 1.57M, Previous: 1.50M revised from 1.52M) Also, the flash PMI data released indicated a slight slowdown in business activities in December. Flash Manufacturing PMI (Actual: 57.8, Forecast: 58.6, Previous: 58.3 revised from 59.1) Flash Services PMI (Actual: 57.5, Forecast: 58.9, Previous: 58.0 revised from 57.0) FOMC committee member Waller will be speaking tomorrow at 0200 (GMT+8). During this time, there may be volatility in USD.
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
EUR/JPY Outlook (16 December 2021)Overall, EUR/JPY is ranging across. Recently, EUR/JPY broke the resistance zone of 128.500. The French flash PMI data will be released later at 1615 (SGT). French Flash Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 55.4, Previous: 55.9 revised from 54.6) French Flash Service PMI (Forecast: 55.9, Previous: 57.4 revised from 58.2) The German Flash PMI data will be released later at 1630 (SGT). German Flash Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 57.0, Previous: 57.4 revised from 57.6) German Flash Services PMI (Forecast: 50.9, Previous: 52.7 revised from 53.4) The eurozone flash PMI data will be released later at 1700 (SGT). Flash Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 57.8, Previous: 58.4 revised from 58.6) Flash Services PMI (Forecast: 54.2, Previous: 55.9 revised from 56.6) The European Central Bank (ECB) will be announcing their monetary policy decision later at 2045 (GMT+8). The central bank is expected to keep monetary policy unchanged. Nonetheless, pay attention to the ECB’s plan on the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) after it ends in March 2022. A press conference will be held at 2130 (GMT+8). During this time, there may be volatility in EUR. Currently, EUR/JPY is trading up towards the key level of 129. Its next support zone is at 128.500 and its next resistance zone is at 130.000. Look for short-term buying opportunities of EUR/JPY if it breaks above the key level of 129.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
GBP/JPY Outlook (16 December 2021)Overall, GBP/JPY is trending downwards. The UK CPI y/y data released yesterday indicated that prices in the UK rose to the highest level since September 2011. CPI y/y (Actual: 5.1%, Forecast: 4.8%, Previous: 4.2%) Core CPI y/y (Actual: 4.0%, Forecast: 3.7%, Previous: 3.4%) The UK flash PMI data will be released later at 1730 (GMT+8). Flash Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 57.2, Previous: 57.8 revised from 57.7) Flash Services PMI (Forecast: 58.2, Previous: 59.1 revised from 58.0) The Bank of England (BoE) will be announcing their monetary policy later at 2000 (GMT+8). It is expected that the central bank will be holding its monetary policy unchanged. Pay attention to any changes made to the number of committee members who voted for a change in quantitative easing or interest rate. Currently, GBP/JPY is testing the resistance zone of 151.000 and its next support zone is at 148.900. Look for short-term selling opportunities of GBP/JPY if it rejects the resistance zone of 151.000.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
GBP/USD Outlook (16 December 2021)Overall, GBP/USD is trending downwards. Recently, GBP/USD bounced off the support zone of 1.32200. The UK CPI y/y data released yesterday indicated that prices in the UK rose to the highest level since September 2011. CPI y/y (Actual: 5.1%, Forecast: 4.8%, Previous: 4.2%) Core CPI y/y (Actual: 4.0%, Forecast: 3.7%, Previous: 3.4%) The UK flash PMI data will be released later at 1730 (GMT+8). Flash Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 57.2, Previous: 57.8 revised from 57.7) Flash Services PMI (Forecast: 58.2, Previous: 59.1 revised from 58.0) The Bank of England (BoE) will be announcing their monetary policy later at 2000 (GMT+8). It is expected that the central bank will be holding its monetary policy unchanged. Pay attention to any changes made to the number of committee members who voted for a change in quantitative easing or interest rate. GBP/USD’s next support zone is at 1.32200 and its next resistance zone is at 1.33800. Look for short-term selling opportunities of GBP/USD only when it breaks the support zone of 1.32200.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
1
AUD/USD Outlook (16 December 2021)Overall, AUD/USD is trending downwards. Recently, AUD/USD bounced off the support zone of 0.71000 The Australian flash PMI data released earlier today indicated a slight slowdown in business activities in December likely due to the COVID Omicron variant. Flash Manufacturing PMI (Actual: 57.4, Forecast: NA, Previous: 59.2 revised from 58.5) Flash Services PMI (Actual: 55.1, Forecast: NA, Previous: 55.7 revised from 55.0) During his speech earlier today, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe said that he does not expect the condition for an interest rate hike to be met in 2022. However, one of the monetary policy considerations that the RBA has is for bond buying to end next year. Also, the Australian employment data released earlier today indicated a strong rebound in the number of jobs created in November. Furthermore, unemployment rate continued to decline. Employment Change (Actual: 366.1K, Forecast: 200.0K, Previous: -46.3K) Unemployment Rate (Actual: 4.6%, Forecast: 5.0%, Previous: 5.2%) AUD/USD’s next support zone is at 0.71000 and the next resistance zone is at 0.73000. Look for short-term buying opportunities of AUD/USD.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
EUR/USD Outlook (16 December 2021)Overall, EUR/USD is ranging across. Recently, EUR/USD bounced down from the key level of 1.13. The French flash PMI data will be released later at 1615 (SGT). French Flash Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 55.4, Previous: 55.9 revised from 54.6) French Flash Service PMI (Forecast: 55.9, Previous: 57.4 revised from 58.2) The German Flash PMI data will be released later at 1630 (SGT). German Flash Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 57.0, Previous: 57.4 revised from 57.6) German Flash Services PMI (Forecast: 50.9, Previous: 52.7 revised from 53.4) The eurozone flash PMI data will be released later at 1700 (SGT). Flash Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 57.8, Previous: 58.4 revised from 58.6) Flash Services PMI (Forecast: 54.2, Previous: 55.9 revised from 56.6) The European Central Bank (ECB) will be announcing their monetary policy decision later at 2045 (GMT+8). The central bank is expected to keep monetary policy unchanged. Nonetheless, pay attention to the ECB’s plan on the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) after it ends in March 2022. A press conference will be held at 2130 (GMT+8). During this time, there may be volatility in EUR. EUR/USD’s next support zone is at 1.12000 and the next resistance zone is at 1.13900. Look for short-term selling opportunities of EUR/USD.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
USD Overview (16 December 2021)Yesterday, USD weakened against most major currencies except JPY and CHF. The Federal Reserve kept its interest rate unchanged at the targeted range of 0-0.25% during their meeting earlier today. The central bank doubled the pace of quantitative easing tapering from the current $15 billion per month to $30 billion per month starting from January 2022. All members of the committee expect at least one interest rate hike in 2022. The Retail Sales m/m data released yesterday indicated a slowdown in consumer spending in November. Core Retail Sales m/m (Actual: 0.3%, Forecast: 0.9%, Previous: 1.7%) Retail Sales m/m (Actual: 0.3%, Forecast: 0.8%, Previous: 1.7%) The housing data will be released later at 2130 (GMT+8). Building Permit (Forecast: 1.66M, Previous: 1.65M) Housing Starts (Forecast: 1.57M, Previous: 1.52M) Also, the flash PMI data will be released later at 2245 (GMt+8). Flash Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 58.6, Previous: 58.3 revised from 59.1) Flash Services PMI (Forecast: 58.9, Previous: 58.0 revised from 57.0)
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
GBP/JPY Outlook (15 December 2021)Overall, GBP/JPY is trending downwards. Recently, GBP/JPY bounced up from the key level of 150. The UK employment data released yesterday indicated further improvement in the job market from the previous month. Average Earnings Index 3m/y (Actual: 4.9%, Forecast: 4.6%, Previous: 5.9% revised from 5.8%) Claimant Count Change (Actual: -49.8K, Forecast: -31.5K, Previous: -58.5K revised from 14.9K) Unemployment Rate (Actual: 4.2%, Forecast: 4.2%, Previous: 4.3%) The UK CPI y/y data will be released later at 1500 (GMT+8). CPI y/y (Forecast: 4.8%, Previous: 4.2%) Core CPI y/y (Forecast: 3.7%, Previous: 3.4%) GBP/JPY’s next support zone is at 148.900 and the next resistance zone is at 151.000. Look for short-term selling opportunities of GBP/JPY up until the release of the U.S. FOMC monetary policy decision tomorrow at 0300 (GMT+8).
Short
by JinDao_Tai
GBP/USD Outlook (15 December 2021)Overall, GBP/USD is trending downwards. The UK employment data released yesterday indicated further improvement in the job market from the previous month. Average Earnings Index 3m/y (Actual: 4.9%, Forecast: 4.6%, Previous: 5.9% revised from 5.8%) Claimant Count Change (Actual: -49.8K, Forecast: -31.5K, Previous: -58.5K revised from 14.9K) Unemployment Rate (Actual: 4.2%, Forecast: 4.2%, Previous: 4.3%) The UK CPI y/y data will be released later at 1500 (GMT+8). CPI y/y (Forecast: 4.8%, Previous: 4.2%) Core CPI y/y (Forecast: 3.7%, Previous: 3.4%) Currently, GBP/USD is testing the support zone of 1.32200 and its next resistance zone is at 1.33800. If GBP/USD breaks the support zone of 1.32200, look for short-term selling opportunities up until the release of the U.S. FOMC monetary policy decision tomorrow at 0300 (GMT+8).
Short
by JinDao_Tai
1
AUD/USD Outlook (15 December 2021)Overall, AUD/USD is trending downwards. Recently, AUD/USD traded into the support zone of 0.71000 The Australian flash PMI data will be released tomorrow at 0600 (GMT+8). Flash Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: NA, Previous: 59.2 revised from 58.5) Flash Services PMI (Forecast: NA, Previous: 55.7 revised from 55.0) Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe will be speaking tomorrow at 0730 (GMT+8). During this time, there may be volatility in AUD. Also, the Australian employment data will be released tomorrow at 0830 (GMT+8). Employment Change (Forecast: 200.0K, Previous: -46.3K) Unemployment Rate (Forecast: 5.0%, Previous: 5.2%) Currently, AUD/USD is testing the support zone of 0.71000 and the next resistance zone is at 0.73000. If AUD/USD broke the support zone, look for short-term selling opportunities of AUD/USD up until the release of the U.S. FOMC monetary policy decision tomorrow at 0300 (GMT+8).
Short
by JinDao_Tai
USD Overview (15 December 2021)Yesterday, USD strengthened against all major currencies except GBP. The PPI m/m data will be released later at 2130 (GMT+8). PPI m/m (Actual: 0.8%, Forecast: 0.5%, Previous: 0.6%) Core PPI m/m (Actual: 0.7%, Forecast: 0.4%, Previous: 0.4%) The Retail Sales m/m data will be released later at 2130 (GMT+8). Core Retail Sales m/m (Forecast: 0.9%, Previous: 1.7%) Retail Sales m/m (Forecast: 0.8%, Previous: 1.7%) The Federal Reserve will be announcing their monetary policy decision tomorrow at 0300 (GMT+8). It is expected that the central bank will be holding interest rate unchanged at the target range of 0-0.25%. The Fed is also expected to speed up the tapering pace of its bond buying programme. Pay attention to the released economic projections on whether members of the committee have shifted their interest rate projection by looking at the dot plots. If the Fed increases the pace of tapering and members of the committee shifted their timeline for rate hikes earlier, USD may strengthen as a result of the hawkishness. The central bank will also be holding a press conference at 0330 (GMT+8). During this time, volatility is expected in USD.
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
AUD/USD Outlook (14 December 2021)Overall, AUD/USD is trending downwards. The Australian NAB Business Confidence data (Actual: 12, Forecast: NA, Previous: 20 revised from 21) released earlier today indicated a decline in the level of optimism from the surveyed businesses on the business conditions in Australia. The Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment data (Forecast: NA, Previous: 0.6%) will be released tomorrow at 0730 (GMT+8). Currently, AUD/USD is moving towards the support zone of 0.71000 and the next resistance zone is at 0.73000. Look for short-term selling opportunities of AUD/USD if it breaks the support zone of 0.71000.
Short
by JinDao_Tai