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EUR / USD - IS THE UPWARD FLIGHT COMING TO AN END?My analysis today deals with how the further course of our popular currency pair "EUR / USD" could look. > The technical analysis and selected indicators, confirm the thesis of an imminent correction. = Why this is so, that I explain after the introduction. The DXY / USD has a non-negligible impact on EUR /USD, as the whole economy depends on its behavior. > Meanwhile, this seems to take run-up, for a final upswing, which could bring the precious metal under massive selling pressure. > Regardless of these selling pressures coming from the USD, SILVER has been somewhat caught at a very strong resistance, which foreshadows a falling price. In the following, the analysis goes into detail, so that the significant levels and areas are known to you. For this purpose, I have performed a "MULTI-TIME-FRAME" analysis, which refers to the higher time units (month & week) and thus makes the big picture visible. Normally all time units below "1h" are called noise, but even a - 1h-4h - analysis is of no use to you, if the knowledge about the big and whole is missing. > We traders know that no one can predict the future and that is exactly why you have to be prepared for all initial situations. > If the DXY should rise again, that means "BLOOD" for the traditional and crypto markets. > This creates dangers, but also opportunities - it is important to look at the big picture. > Which levels are RELEVANT, I have explained in detail in the following pages. Table of contents 1st part = INTRODUCTION 2nd part = TECHNICAL ANALYSIS = Monthly - Time frame = Weekly - Time frame 3rd part = CONCLUSION PART ONE "INTRODUCTION" After "EUR/USD" formed a top at - 1.235 - in January|2011, a strong sell-off has been unleashed after a retest of the level. > This sell-off completed in September|2021 and formed our current bottom. > That the pair was in a "Symmetrical Triangle", many seem to forget at the moment, which is why I hereby again explicitly refer to it (marked in purple in the picture.). > The breakout of the triangle was the reason for the strong sell-off and is just challenged by the price again. > In recent weeks, we have seen a very strong upward movement, which I believe could be on the verge of a correction. = We are at the lower resistance line of the previously mentioned "symmetrical triangle" which played a major role from 2017 to 2022 |. = Significant FIBONACCI levels and SUPPLY zones, are located in the zone and thus represent a magnet for institutional investors. = This means translated that the price can bounce off the "Symmetrical Triangle". However, it cannot be ruled out that the institutional investors, will take the liquidity located at the "magnet levels." = To get some clarity, we must wait for the reaction of the DXY, which will decide the following course of the EUR and the economy. = The "DAILY" - MACD + RSI - both show divergences, which further strengthens the correction thesis. > This divergence is seen in many other pairs trading against the USD, which further supports the thesis of a sell-off. > Once you look at the DXY (USD index) on the higher timeframes, the further sell-off in the traditional markets becomes even more likely. (My DXY analysis is linked below this post, for confirmation purposes). SECOND PART TECHNICAL ANALYSIS For the analysis of the higher time levels, I proceed according to the onion-skin principle. > MONTH - level > WEEK - level > DAY - level These are divided into > SUMMARY > CHARTS The charts are presented in logarithmic scaling, as the given information can be visually presented in a more harmonious way. (This also refers to Fibonacci levels.) 1st MONTH – Time frame SUMMARY The trend channel shown in the chart, in turquoise, was formed since 1978 and since then it was able to maintain itself as a legitimate trend channel. Its mid-trend line showed reactions when confronted and was respected by the market. > The price is outside and had given up in 2018 after unsuccessful attempts to recapture the channel, initiating the MAKRO sell-off. The earth colored trend lines drawn, formed in 2003 + 2008 and served as support or resistance since then. > Price is running into the resistance line (2008) and may be facing the next major task with it. The in the chart, drawn in purple - "Symmetrical Triangle", formed since 2017 and directed the price since then. > The price broke through the triangle in April | 2022 and is currently demanding recovery. The red colored trend line formed in 1992 and represents an inconspicuous but relevant level. > If you look at the past of this trendline, you can see quite quickly what strong influence it played. When we go into more detail about the "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones, you can look at the "DEMAND" + "SUPPLY" zones I highlighted on the chart. > D|1 - Zone | STRONG = followed a strong move + bounced off lower support line. > D|2 - Zone | VERY STRONG = followed extremely - Strong move + origin 2001. > D|3 - Zone | VERY STRONG = followed extreme - Strong move + origin 2001 + quarterly zone > S|1 - Zone | WEAK = occurred during sell-off, not the trigger. > S|2 - Zone | STRONG = followed a strong move + prominent FIB level + symmetrical triangle + quarterly zone > S|3 - Zone | STRONG = followed a strong move + prominent FIB level + symmetrical triangle + quarterly zone > S|4 - Zone | VERY STRONG = followed extremely - strong + macro FIB level Fibonacci retracements should serve us as additional confirmation, and have been considered in past movements (last decades). > FIB 1 | will serve as the strongest resistance should the price attempt another run up. > FIB level > FIB 2 | are the possible resistance targets, which would be feasible in case of a successful breakout of the "Symmetrical Triangle". > In combination with the 0.328 FIB from the MACRO FIB Level a very strong resistance. > FIB 3 | are the next correction targets, which become relevant in case of a direct sell-off (immediately after this analysis). > FIB 4 | is a strong MACRO support level (0.88), for a further sell-off. Past highs and lows usually serve as resistance/support, one of which we have. > HIGHER HIGH Some levels of interest are in front of us, which in the last months + years, played a strong role for the market. > The currently most relevant - POI (1.145 USD) - represents an important mark already since the year 1980 and thus takes a currently very strong resistance role. > The other POIs are by no means negligible and will play a role in the price development in the coming days, weeks and months. (Therefore, take your time and transfer the ones that are relevant for you into your chart). CHARTS Overall picture Overall picture without POIs + MSBs ATTENTION In the following time levels, I will only deal with the NEW, added elements. . 2nd WEEK – Time frame SUMMARY The monthly "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones are joined by others from the weekly view that coincide with other resistance / support elements. > D|1 - Zone | WEAK = is a Rally-Base-Rally Zone, but additional resistance support by MSB (2020) + Trend line (Red) > D|2 - Zone | STRONG = followed a strong move + prominent FIB levels > S|1 - Zone | STRONG = followed a strong move + prominent FIB level + MACRO FIB + trend line resistance (earth colors) > S|2 - Zone | VERY STRONG = followed extremely - strong + macro FIB level + "symmetrical triangle" resistance line *** In addition, no further addition is needed, as the levels from the monthly level also cover the weekly perspective. THIRD PART CONCLUSION "And all without need - the euro is the EU's death." If necessary, this saying refers to the fact that the EURO was never intended to be a permanent currency, but only a transitional one. What this could mean on the future course of the exchange rate, everyone should think about. In summary, it can be said that based on the technical analysis, there are strong reasons for a long-term - falling EURO rate. > Since the price top in Jan|2021 - the quarterly candles were dominated by bearish and the current movement looks more like a rebound. > A possible breakout of resistance elements is possible, but should meet strongest resistance at 1.131 - at the latest. (I have marked this "death zone" with a "purple" area in the cover image). > The divergences in the daily RSI + MACD, suggest a bearish sell-off. For this reason, I assume a weak EURO exchange rate and a strong USD and an accompanying bloodbath in the traditional and crypto markets. > Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = SHORT . If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive an evaluation of the idea. Thank you and happy trading! ZIEL IST DIE AUTARKIE | THE GOAL IS SELF-SUFFICIENCY
Short
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
12
BTC - Are You Ready ? 📊Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 🗒 As per my last educational post, we know that the bulls took over after breaking above the falling flag #4 📌 BTC has been sitting inside a strong rejection zone: 1- Round number => 30,000 2- Classic Weekly Support Zone Turned Resistance 30k - 32k 3- Supply zone 🏹 For the bulls to take over from a Marco perspective, we need a weekly break above 32,000 Meanwhile , the bears can still kick in for one more bearish correction before the bullish take over again. We will be monitoring price action on lower timeframes to confirm it. Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen first? and why? 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
18
ETH is back to challenge BTC Since progressive negative views about the world economy - altcoins have underperformed significantly against Bitcoin. This includes Ethereum, which many thought would have been a lot closer to overtaking BTC by market cap at this point. The following fundamental and technical reasons are behind my bullishness on ETH/BTC: 3 main TA points - Bullish ETH/BTC weekly graph - Low RSI on ETH/BTC - Last candle closed above critical Fib level on ETH/BTC 3 main FA points - Central Banks world-wide are about to start cutting interest rates, therefore - higher rate of return asset alternatives (bonds) will yield less = additional capital inflow from those assets to crypto - AI hype to spill over to crypto markets - ETH in particular has various uses for AI and/or due to AI hype will be more rapidly utilised. Ethereum trade set-up: Entry: 1916 t/p 1: (25%): 2032 t/p 2: (50%): 2269 t/p 3: (25%): 2439 s/l: : 1784 Thanks for reading. Feel free to leave a comment :)
INDEX:ETHUSDLong
by Sanzhar_m
2
$EUR50 - Recession - Eurozone OANDA:EU50EUR is officially in Recession due to two consecutive negative quarters in a row. The Euro-Zone entered a Recession in the first quarter of this year and economists are not optimistic for the coming months. Having said that, its Index OANDA:EU50EUR continues to hold its head up high, but the question is, how much longer will it maintain to do so ? Will the situation get better for Europe or domino effect has just gotten started ? TRADE SAFE *** NOTE that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research and consult your Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activity based solely on this Idea .
OANDA:EU50EUR
by Mr_J__fx
SPY Plan 2023-2026This is my Funnel setup for the run up. Im watching the 443 range now to the 448 trap. If theres volume at ths price point we are gonna keep an eye on breaking out of 453 to retest 458-463 range where I see we will see some sell offs. But there is a continuation to watch for for a new ATH if we break and maintain the 450 range Im watching the 473 481 489 493 503 513 top ranges if we do break in this next few years. 2024 we must be above 460s to be good for this projection
AMEX:SPY
by EMC2PRoPheT
AAL - Like An Eagle 🦅Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. on MONTHLY: Left Chart After rejecting the 26.0 resistance zone, AAL has been overall bearish. However, AAL is now sitting around a strong support zone and round number 10.0 on WEEKLY: Right Chart For the bulls to take over, we need a break above the last major high in gray. Meanwhile, until the buy is activated, AAL can still trade lower inside the 10 - 12 support zone where we will be looking for short-term buy setups on lower timeframes. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
NASDAQ:AAL
by TheSignalyst
4
BTC MACROTrend Following is a trading strategy used in all trading markets, including stocks, futures, and currencies. It relies on technical analysis, as opposed to fundamental analysis, to identify potential trading opportunities. The principle behind trend following is quite straightforward: it's based on the premise that prices tend to move in a particular direction (upwards or downwards) over time. A trend follower tries to take advantage of these market trends by observing and identifying these price movements, then making trading decisions based on the direction of the trend. Trend followers typically use a variety of indicators to help identify and confirm the direction and strength of trends. These might include moving averages, relative strength index (RSI), and MACD among others. The key is to determine when a trend has established, and then to hold onto the trade until there is a sign that the trend is ending. One of the main benefits of trend following is that it doesn't require traders to predict or forecast specific price levels; rather, it simply involves identifying the direction of a trend and trading in alignment with it. This strategy can be applied over any time frame - short, medium, or long term.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by AURUM_INDICATORS
Weekly Momentum On Major Pairs (Week 22/2023)First Thing First: This analysis is for “general overview only” as it is solely based on price action. That’s why it is called momentum analysis in the first place. Support/Resistant, Volume Macro view nor any other factors are not used during write up. Refer to the individual pair analysis for a more comprehensive write up. XXX/USD: Very Bearish Gold & Silver: Very Bearish XXX/JPY: Slightly Bullish Stock Indexes: Bearish BitCoin: Neutral WK 22 (27 May 2023)
by SonicDeejay
2
Pound Weakness After U.K. InflationAs a young trader (21 years old), I see my trading style as more of an art than a science. I don't understand patterns, and I don't use technical analysis. I am a macro trader. I take information from various sources (WSJ, Twitter, Investing.com, Trading Economics, ect.), and my instincts kick in. I understand where assets should be moving on data releases. The U.K. pound has been on a monster rally in the past month and change. Expectations for the U.S. Federal Reserve to pause rates, with some saying cuts later into the year, has simmered the red hot U.S. dollar. The Bank of England on the other hand, is expected to continue hiking rates in the midst of the highest inflation in recent memory. When yields rise on the U.K. Gilt, that makes their debt more attractive to foreign investors, making their currency appreciate against the greenback. This past Wednesday morning, at 1:00AM (CST), U.K. inflation came in hotter than consensus estimates (8.7% actual versus 8.2% consensus), as did core inflation (6.8% actual versus 6.2% consensus). I would have expected the pound to appreciate against other currencies as their currency becomes more valuable as Gilt yields rise. The opposite happened, FXB has now fallen two consecutive days. I was building up my short position against the pound, but we must remember U.S. data sets can affect currencies across the globe. I exited my FXB position before the open today with the intention of hopping back in after said release. Tomorrow (5/26), before the bell, we have U.K. retail sales MoM, U.S. durable goods orders MoM, core PCE prices MoM, personal spending MoM, and personal income MoM. There's no telling where any of this data will land us, especially the U.S. data, and that is why I closed out of my position today. As far as I can see, we have no upcoming U.K data that would affect the pound. That is why I'm confident in this trade. The market will have time to digest what has transpired, and my hope is that it will come to the same conclusion that I have. I have full intentions of getting back into my trade after this data is priced back into the stock. The most important lesson I've learned in my very young trading career is protecting your capital and letting the trades come to you, don't look for them, they will find you ;) fyi - this is my first writing and any feedback is appreciated! Thanks
Short
by UnknownUnicorn22408063
FXB downside after U.K. inflationAs a young trader (21 years old), I see my trading style as more of an art than a science. I don't understand patterns, and I don't use technical analysis. I am a macro trader. I take information from various sources (WSJ, Twitter, Investing.com, Trading Economics, ect.), and my instincts kick in. I understand where assets should be moving on data releases. The U.K. pound has been on a monster rally in the past month and change. Expectations for the U.S. Federal Reserve to pause rates, with some saying cuts later into the year, has simmered the red hot U.S. dollar. The Bank of England on the other hand, is expected to continue hiking rates in the midst of the highest inflation in recent memory. When yields rise on the U.K. Gilt, that makes their debt more attractive to foreign investors, making their currency appreciate against the greenback. This past Wednesday morning, at 1:00AM (CST), U.K. inflation came in hotter than consensus estimates (8.7% actual versus 8.2% consensus), as did core inflation (6.8% actual versus 6.2% consensus). I would have expected the pound to appreciate against other currencies as their currency becomes more valuable as Gilt yields rise. The opposite happened, FXB has now fallen two consecutive days. I was building up my short position against the pound, but we must remember U.S. data sets can affect currencies across the globe. I exited my FXB position before the open today with the intention of hopping back in after said release. Tomorrow (5/26), before the bell, we have U.K. retail sales MoM, U.S. durable goods orders MoM, core PCE prices MoM, personal spending MoM, and personal income MoM. There's no telling where any of this data will land us, especially the U.S. data, and that is why I closed out of my position today. As far as I can see, we have no upcoming U.K data that would affect the pound. That is why I'm confident in this trade. The market will have time to digest what has transpired, and my hope is that it will come to the same conclusion that I have. I have full intentions of getting back into my trade after this data is priced back into the stock. The most important lesson I've learned in my very young trading career is protecting your capital and letting the trades come to you, don't look for them, they will find you ;) fyi - this is my first writing and any feedback is appreciated! Thanks
AMEX:FXBShort
by UnknownUnicorn22408063
1
DIE HARD (BITCOIN) Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that was created in 2009 by an anonymous person or group of people using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. It operates on a technology called blockchain, which is a distributed ledger that records all transactions made with Bitcoin. There are several benefits to using Bitcoin. Firstly, it allows for peer-to-peer transactions without the need for intermediaries like banks. This means that individuals can send and receive payments directly, reducing the reliance on traditional financial institutions. Additionally, Bitcoin transactions are generally faster and can be completed within minutes, especially compared to traditional banking systems that can take several days for international transfers. Another benefit of Bitcoin is its potential for increased financial privacy. While Bitcoin transactions are recorded on the public blockchain, the identities of the parties involved are not directly linked to the transactions. This can provide a level of anonymity, although it is not completely anonymous since transactions can be traced through blockchain analysis. If everyone were to use Bitcoin for transactions and everything became decentralized, it would have both positive and negative implications. On the positive side, a decentralized network would reduce the control and influence of centralized authorities, such as governments and banks, over the financial system. This could potentially lead to greater financial inclusivity, as individuals who are unbanked or underbanked could access financial services through Bitcoin. Moreover, a decentralized network would make transactions more resistant to censorship and control, allowing for greater freedom in conducting financial activities. It would also enable cross-border transactions to be more efficient and cost-effective, as there would be no need for intermediaries or currency conversions. However, there are also challenges and potential drawbacks to consider. One major concern is the scalability of the Bitcoin network. Currently, the Bitcoin blockchain has a limited capacity to process transactions, which has led to issues with network congestion and higher transaction fees during periods of high demand. If everyone were to use Bitcoin, the network would need to scale significantly to accommodate the increased transaction volume. Additionally, the lack of centralized control and regulation in a decentralized network can pose challenges related to security, consumer protection, and legal frameworks. Without a central authority, it becomes more difficult to address issues such as fraud, disputes, or illegal activities conducted using Bitcoin. In summary, Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that offers benefits such as peer-to-peer transactions, increased financial privacy, and potential for financial inclusivity. If everyone were to use Bitcoin and the entire financial system became decentralized, it could bring advantages like reduced control by centralized authorities and increased financial freedom. However, challenges related to scalability, security, and regulation would need to be addressed to ensure the stability and viability of such a system.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TrojanBible
#BTCLIVE | Bitcoin Getting Serious Now | Bull's Be Bouncing | Don't Forget To Hit Follow To Never Miss An Idea | | Please Support By Giving This Idea a Boost | #BTCLIVE - Bitcoin Getting Serious Now - Bull's Be Bouncing Macro Analysis Using a combination of a bespoke Bitcoin Log Curve that has worked brilliantly for us in the past (as per chart) we nailed the recent bottom (at least we hope its the bottom), with a daily CVD Trendline Breakout strategy and finally the Pi-Cycle Reversal strategy - everything is lining up for Bitcoin to be confirming its move into a bullish trend. We have held well within the BTC Curve model along with holding the macro trendline now we are looking at making that move up and confirming the trend change which after the Pi-Cycle Reversal signal is looking like it is happening - once we breakout of this next Daily CVD Trendline break then things could start to rocket up. Keep your eye on BTC as we might be starting the pre-halving run up pretty soon!!!
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Kryptochristian
Wyckoff Cycle - Practical Example 📚Dear TradingView community and fellow traders, I am Richard, also known as theSignalyst. I find the BTC weekly chart to be intriguing as it appears to be following the famous Wyckoff Cycle. I would like to apply Richard Wyckoff's four market stages/phases to this chart for analysis as a practical example. 1️⃣ Distribution BTC appears to have rejected the 68,000 level and is now in a distribution phase 2️⃣ MarkDown After breaking below 56,500 back in November 2021, BTC entered the MarkDown phase and began making lower highs and lower lows. 📉 The bearish impulse movements were initially large and steep. However, starting in July 2022, the bears seem to have exhausted themselves, resulting in a flat and small impulse movement. According to Charles Dow, this signals an early alert for a potential shift in momentum, which brings us to the Accumulation phase as per Richard Wyckoff. 3️⃣ Accumulation BTC is currently trading within a big range between 15,500 and 25,000 in the shape of an inverse head and shoulders as it forms a minor lower low followed by a higher low. 4️⃣ MarkUp BTC broke above the previous major high marked in gray, indicating that the bulls may finally be strong enough to take over for the first time since late 2021, thus entering the MarkUp phase. 🏹 BTC is now approaching a key resistance/supply zone. For the bulls to remain in control from a long-term perspective, we need a weekly candle close above 32,000. Alternatively, the bears may still form one last HL before BTC breaks above 32,000. I hope you find this post useful, and I would appreciate your likes and support. Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen first? and why? 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard
by TheSignalyst
132
Macro Bitcoin Market Cap Ratioed through Halving prices Bitcoins halving in 2020 was priced at 150 Billion dollars . Since the supply was cut in half, you could've expected 600 billion because that is 150 billion times two . We pumped double (150 to 600) and doubled from (600 Billion to 1.2 Trillion.) This was a big pump and we just bottomed at 300 billion and have just hit 600 billion . Notice the pattern in ratios . Send me your thoughts and comments below thanks for reading.
CRYPTOCAP:BTCLong
by MichaelBsul
1
Bitcoin by end of June - 48k?Bitcoin looks like it would like to reach up and touch 48-50k..maybe even a little higher. People are calling dooms day for all markets..dooms day for everything every day, but what they forget is that Bitcoin is one of the only places to store your wealth in these uncertain times. With a world banking crisis, inflation, war, and economic trouble looming around the globe, people will run to Bitcoin as a safe haven that the globalist banking crime syndicate can't dilute or rig to steal from you. What do you think? Let me know..
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by WillTMoney
2