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Pound Weakness After U.K. InflationAs a young trader (21 years old), I see my trading style as more of an art than a science. I don't understand patterns, and I don't use technical analysis. I am a macro trader. I take information from various sources (WSJ, Twitter, Investing.com, Trading Economics, ect.), and my instincts kick in. I understand where assets should be moving on data releases. The U.K. pound has been on a monster rally in the past month and change. Expectations for the U.S. Federal Reserve to pause rates, with some saying cuts later into the year, has simmered the red hot U.S. dollar. The Bank of England on the other hand, is expected to continue hiking rates in the midst of the highest inflation in recent memory. When yields rise on the U.K. Gilt, that makes their debt more attractive to foreign investors, making their currency appreciate against the greenback. This past Wednesday morning, at 1:00AM (CST), U.K. inflation came in hotter than consensus estimates (8.7% actual versus 8.2% consensus), as did core inflation (6.8% actual versus 6.2% consensus). I would have expected the pound to appreciate against other currencies as their currency becomes more valuable as Gilt yields rise. The opposite happened, FXB has now fallen two consecutive days. I was building up my short position against the pound, but we must remember U.S. data sets can affect currencies across the globe. I exited my FXB position before the open today with the intention of hopping back in after said release. Tomorrow (5/26), before the bell, we have U.K. retail sales MoM, U.S. durable goods orders MoM, core PCE prices MoM, personal spending MoM, and personal income MoM. There's no telling where any of this data will land us, especially the U.S. data, and that is why I closed out of my position today. As far as I can see, we have no upcoming U.K data that would affect the pound. That is why I'm confident in this trade. The market will have time to digest what has transpired, and my hope is that it will come to the same conclusion that I have. I have full intentions of getting back into my trade after this data is priced back into the stock. The most important lesson I've learned in my very young trading career is protecting your capital and letting the trades come to you, don't look for them, they will find you ;) fyi - this is my first writing and any feedback is appreciated! Thanks
Short
by UnknownUnicorn22408063
FXB downside after U.K. inflationAs a young trader (21 years old), I see my trading style as more of an art than a science. I don't understand patterns, and I don't use technical analysis. I am a macro trader. I take information from various sources (WSJ, Twitter, Investing.com, Trading Economics, ect.), and my instincts kick in. I understand where assets should be moving on data releases. The U.K. pound has been on a monster rally in the past month and change. Expectations for the U.S. Federal Reserve to pause rates, with some saying cuts later into the year, has simmered the red hot U.S. dollar. The Bank of England on the other hand, is expected to continue hiking rates in the midst of the highest inflation in recent memory. When yields rise on the U.K. Gilt, that makes their debt more attractive to foreign investors, making their currency appreciate against the greenback. This past Wednesday morning, at 1:00AM (CST), U.K. inflation came in hotter than consensus estimates (8.7% actual versus 8.2% consensus), as did core inflation (6.8% actual versus 6.2% consensus). I would have expected the pound to appreciate against other currencies as their currency becomes more valuable as Gilt yields rise. The opposite happened, FXB has now fallen two consecutive days. I was building up my short position against the pound, but we must remember U.S. data sets can affect currencies across the globe. I exited my FXB position before the open today with the intention of hopping back in after said release. Tomorrow (5/26), before the bell, we have U.K. retail sales MoM, U.S. durable goods orders MoM, core PCE prices MoM, personal spending MoM, and personal income MoM. There's no telling where any of this data will land us, especially the U.S. data, and that is why I closed out of my position today. As far as I can see, we have no upcoming U.K data that would affect the pound. That is why I'm confident in this trade. The market will have time to digest what has transpired, and my hope is that it will come to the same conclusion that I have. I have full intentions of getting back into my trade after this data is priced back into the stock. The most important lesson I've learned in my very young trading career is protecting your capital and letting the trades come to you, don't look for them, they will find you ;) fyi - this is my first writing and any feedback is appreciated! Thanks
AMEX:FXBShort
by UnknownUnicorn22408063
1
DIE HARD (BITCOIN) Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that was created in 2009 by an anonymous person or group of people using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. It operates on a technology called blockchain, which is a distributed ledger that records all transactions made with Bitcoin. There are several benefits to using Bitcoin. Firstly, it allows for peer-to-peer transactions without the need for intermediaries like banks. This means that individuals can send and receive payments directly, reducing the reliance on traditional financial institutions. Additionally, Bitcoin transactions are generally faster and can be completed within minutes, especially compared to traditional banking systems that can take several days for international transfers. Another benefit of Bitcoin is its potential for increased financial privacy. While Bitcoin transactions are recorded on the public blockchain, the identities of the parties involved are not directly linked to the transactions. This can provide a level of anonymity, although it is not completely anonymous since transactions can be traced through blockchain analysis. If everyone were to use Bitcoin for transactions and everything became decentralized, it would have both positive and negative implications. On the positive side, a decentralized network would reduce the control and influence of centralized authorities, such as governments and banks, over the financial system. This could potentially lead to greater financial inclusivity, as individuals who are unbanked or underbanked could access financial services through Bitcoin. Moreover, a decentralized network would make transactions more resistant to censorship and control, allowing for greater freedom in conducting financial activities. It would also enable cross-border transactions to be more efficient and cost-effective, as there would be no need for intermediaries or currency conversions. However, there are also challenges and potential drawbacks to consider. One major concern is the scalability of the Bitcoin network. Currently, the Bitcoin blockchain has a limited capacity to process transactions, which has led to issues with network congestion and higher transaction fees during periods of high demand. If everyone were to use Bitcoin, the network would need to scale significantly to accommodate the increased transaction volume. Additionally, the lack of centralized control and regulation in a decentralized network can pose challenges related to security, consumer protection, and legal frameworks. Without a central authority, it becomes more difficult to address issues such as fraud, disputes, or illegal activities conducted using Bitcoin. In summary, Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that offers benefits such as peer-to-peer transactions, increased financial privacy, and potential for financial inclusivity. If everyone were to use Bitcoin and the entire financial system became decentralized, it could bring advantages like reduced control by centralized authorities and increased financial freedom. However, challenges related to scalability, security, and regulation would need to be addressed to ensure the stability and viability of such a system.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TrojanBible
#BTCLIVE | Bitcoin Getting Serious Now | Bull's Be Bouncing | Don't Forget To Hit Follow To Never Miss An Idea | | Please Support By Giving This Idea a Boost | #BTCLIVE - Bitcoin Getting Serious Now - Bull's Be Bouncing Macro Analysis Using a combination of a bespoke Bitcoin Log Curve that has worked brilliantly for us in the past (as per chart) we nailed the recent bottom (at least we hope its the bottom), with a daily CVD Trendline Breakout strategy and finally the Pi-Cycle Reversal strategy - everything is lining up for Bitcoin to be confirming its move into a bullish trend. We have held well within the BTC Curve model along with holding the macro trendline now we are looking at making that move up and confirming the trend change which after the Pi-Cycle Reversal signal is looking like it is happening - once we breakout of this next Daily CVD Trendline break then things could start to rocket up. Keep your eye on BTC as we might be starting the pre-halving run up pretty soon!!!
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Kryptochristian
Wyckoff Cycle - Practical Example 📚Dear TradingView community and fellow traders, I am Richard, also known as theSignalyst. I find the BTC weekly chart to be intriguing as it appears to be following the famous Wyckoff Cycle. I would like to apply Richard Wyckoff's four market stages/phases to this chart for analysis as a practical example. 1️⃣ Distribution BTC appears to have rejected the 68,000 level and is now in a distribution phase 2️⃣ MarkDown After breaking below 56,500 back in November 2021, BTC entered the MarkDown phase and began making lower highs and lower lows. 📉 The bearish impulse movements were initially large and steep. However, starting in July 2022, the bears seem to have exhausted themselves, resulting in a flat and small impulse movement. According to Charles Dow, this signals an early alert for a potential shift in momentum, which brings us to the Accumulation phase as per Richard Wyckoff. 3️⃣ Accumulation BTC is currently trading within a big range between 15,500 and 25,000 in the shape of an inverse head and shoulders as it forms a minor lower low followed by a higher low. 4️⃣ MarkUp BTC broke above the previous major high marked in gray, indicating that the bulls may finally be strong enough to take over for the first time since late 2021, thus entering the MarkUp phase. 🏹 BTC is now approaching a key resistance/supply zone. For the bulls to remain in control from a long-term perspective, we need a weekly candle close above 32,000. Alternatively, the bears may still form one last HL before BTC breaks above 32,000. I hope you find this post useful, and I would appreciate your likes and support. Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen first? and why? 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard
by TheSignalyst
132
Macro Bitcoin Market Cap Ratioed through Halving prices Bitcoins halving in 2020 was priced at 150 Billion dollars . Since the supply was cut in half, you could've expected 600 billion because that is 150 billion times two . We pumped double (150 to 600) and doubled from (600 Billion to 1.2 Trillion.) This was a big pump and we just bottomed at 300 billion and have just hit 600 billion . Notice the pattern in ratios . Send me your thoughts and comments below thanks for reading.
CRYPTOCAP:BTCLong
by MichaelBsul
1
Bitcoin by end of June - 48k?Bitcoin looks like it would like to reach up and touch 48-50k..maybe even a little higher. People are calling dooms day for all markets..dooms day for everything every day, but what they forget is that Bitcoin is one of the only places to store your wealth in these uncertain times. With a world banking crisis, inflation, war, and economic trouble looming around the globe, people will run to Bitcoin as a safe haven that the globalist banking crime syndicate can't dilute or rig to steal from you. What do you think? Let me know..
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by WillTMoney
2
TRX Could Drop to 3.3 cents Following Failed Breakout (EW)Based on the severity of this pull back It seems like the breakout for TRX has failed, and based on the macro environment the probabilities are mounting we may briefly see new lows this year before pushing towards all time highs. This seems to be coinciding with a crash in the US banking system, which will eventually lead to a fast response by the Fed to turn the printers back on to save the banks and prop up asset prices. At first TRX could get a quick drop to 3.3 cents as asset prices depress almost across the board. Following the inevitable Fed intervention, TRX and most cryptos should push towards new all time highs. At a minimum TRX should go to over 60 cents in the following year as the money printers get turned back on again. The very recent collapse of multiple banks in the US could lead to system wide contagion in the US banking system that will only be stopped by massive intervention and money printing by the Fed. A systemic bank run could lead to a dollar liquidity crisis and temporary demand spike for dollars as depositors can no longer get their dollars out of banks and will need to sell off other assets to pay their bills, this selling will continue up until the central bank is able to effectively deal with the situation and extinguish the fire by throwing freshly printed money on it. The Fed typically keeps tightening until they 'break something,' and things are definitely starting to break now.
KRAKEN:TRXUSDShort
by Intuit
15
#SPX500 8.5 YEAR EXPANDING FLATThe market moves in waves and patterns. This is a macro expanding flat on the #SPX500 that corrected for 8.5 years! During the A and C wave of the expanding flat, there were so called "recessions", the 2002 and 2008 recessions. Or were they just A and C waves of a macro expanding flat? It is interesting how the patterns a chart makes predicts the future of reality on a macro level. The rules for an expanding flat is that the top of the B wave pops above the top of the preceding impulse and the bottom of the C wave pops below the low of the A wave. It is at that moment you can start to look for buys for an expanding flat and hold on to an extension of the impulse!
FX:SPX500
by optimizedtrading
1
BTC Diametric Ending, Long-Term Bull Market Beginning?BTC has reached the end of a diametric pattern which began at the highs in early 2021. In a diametric there must be at least 5 waves that are similar in time and 2 waves that are different. That has manifested here perfectly, orange boxes are the same time, green boxes are the same time. This implies that we have just ended a nearly 2 year pattern and we should be entering into a bull market that takes at least as much time as the bear market and will probably go past all time highs. BTC could be over 250k by next year. Many alts will see even larger percentage gains. Money will be flowing in from China and Asia which was a key factor in both the 2017 and 2013 bull runs, which were arguably much bigger and more profitable than 2021, which was mostly pumped up on fraudulent money from FTX, Luna, 3AC, DCG, etc. Now that all the fraud has been exposed we are ready for a recovery from this mess and a "real" bull market forming in 2023. Momentum also looks really good here and ready for a big move up. Right when all the headlines are about FTX collapsing and "Binance being insolvent" (they're not), and other FUD that has been polluting the headlines, much of which is completely baseless, we are ready for the market to start ripping up. Media manipulation is in full swing to get people to sell their coins for dirt cheap right before the giga pump.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Intuit
8
Fibonacci Time Cycles and Price Action: Analyzing SPX CorrectionIn this idea, I will dive into the fascinating world of Fibonacci time cycles and how they relate to price action as the cycles reduce to zero. We will examine the current correction in the S&P 500 (SPX) index from the perspective of the 2008 lows and discuss the potential impact of interest rates and inflation on the market. By analyzing Fibonacci retracements and time cycles, we can gain a better understanding of the market dynamics and make more informed trading decisions. Understanding Fibonacci Time Cycles Fibonacci time cycles are a technical analysis tool used to identify potential turning points in the market based on the Fibonacci sequence. The sequence is a series of numbers in which each number is the sum of the two preceding ones, starting from 0 and 1. In the context of time cycles, traders apply the Fibonacci ratios (such as 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and so on) to the time duration between significant market highs and lows to predict future turning points. Analyzing the SPX Correction with Fibonacci Retracements When looking at the SPX from the lows in 2008, we can see that the current correction is only a part of a larger trend. Bigger corrections took place in 2018 and 2020. Although the current correction appears more natural, the combination of low-interest rates and rising inflationary costs of goods could create significant problems in the near future. The SPX has the potential to reach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which is around 4300. However, I believe it's highly possible that we could see the index drop to 3200 by late August. This current correction can be seen as a retracement of the bull run from 2008 to 2022, during which the SPX rallied by 622%. Fibonacci Time Cycles and the 55-Year Bear Market My analysis of Fibonacci time cycles suggests that we are currently at the end of a cycle that ended in ~2021/2022. This could potentially mark the beginning of a 55-year bear market. It's important to note that a 55-year bear market doesn't imply a constant decline for that duration. Instead, it suggests that we can expect many ups and downs over the next 55 years. While my prediction of the time frame could be incorrect, I will adjust my analysis accordingly if needed. Given the current market conditions, I believe it's more likely that the SPX will drop to 3200 by late August, rather than reach new highs in the same time frame. Fibonacci time cycles offer valuable insights into potential turning points in the market, and when combined with price action analysis, they can enhance our understanding of market trends. By examining the SPX correction through the lens of Fibonacci retracements and time cycles, we can better anticipate the potential impact of interest rates and inflation on the market. It's essential to remain vigilant and adapt our analysis as needed, while considering the myriad factors that influence market dynamics.
SP:SPXShort
by bitdoctor
BTCUSD: Targeting $146,387.66 According to Volatility IndexesBVOL (Realized BTC Volatility) has a huge gap implying an eventual 758% Upside within the index while at the sametime DVOL (Implied BTC Volatility) has a Bearish 3 Line Strike which is a very Bullish Pattern implying upside in it aswell. The last time BVOL rallied by 615% it was coupled with BTC itself going up about 610%. Applying that same logic to the current price action; If BVOL goes up 758% then BTC will go up about 750% from where it was which would take us all the way up to a macro target of about $146,387.66
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by RizeSenpai