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Macro

MACRO BOTTOMSWHY? I worked lately on finding the macro tops and bottoms. The reason why was to always have macro signals in mind before deciding to buy/sell a single stock as the macro always influences the price trend for individual stocks. This idea talks only about the Macro bottoms. Be on the look out later for finding Macro Tops! HOW? You can see when the first buy signal (GREEN TRIANGLE-UP) is flashed, it indicates the start of bull trend is looming around the corner. When you get the second buy signal (GREEN DIAMOND) , it indicates the start of a bull trend in all the bear markets. PREDICTION? We have now got the (GREEN TRIANGLE-UP) first Buy signal . This could indicate the bull trend could be around the corner. BUT, we still need to wait for the (GREEN DIAMOND) second buy signal to confirm the bull trend. Usually in a week or max 4 weeks from the first buy signal, we probably can expect the second buy signal to flash. Well, since it has been two weeks since the first buy signal has flashed, based on past history, there is a probability for the second buy signal to flash by March 17, 2023. If the second buy signal does not flash by March 17, 2023. Then, I think we should wait until we get the second buy signal for the bear market to be over. Do you think we will get the second signal by March 17, 2023?
SP:SPXLong
by naveen31491
1
A macro bottom on Bitcoin is either close or already in- MAIN INFORMATION - Everything that follows is merely a simple study and does not constitute financial advice. Every first of the month, over the past few years, I take a look at a useful free indicator on the index chart of BTCUSD called "Accumulation/Distribution - with markers" to determine whether the slope is going up or down. When the indicator goes up, BTCUSD is generally in a macro bullish trend, when it reverses, BTCUSD is in - or is soon to be in - a correction territory. Keep in mind this is a monthly chart, and as far as I've witnessed, while I believe this analysis to be extremely valid on this timeframe, you'll find it losing its value on lower ones. All four red lines plotted mark the beginning of a downwards movement of this asset. The magnitude of each correction is measured from the close of the candlestick where the signal is fired off, to the wick of the following ultimate bottom. When does the signal fire off? On the candlestick closure matching the change in direction of the indicator, specifically in this case, when it reverses to the downside. The point of this analysis is not to be able to sell the exact top of a bull market, so don't get distracted by the timing imprecision of the signal, although it's still generally fairly on point with such expectation in mind as well. What brings us the most value here is the actual average retracement, that helps us to determine whether to look for a reversal to the upside relatively soon. Note that while there still is no guarantee that BTCUSD has indeed put a macro bottom on November 2022, I included the current correction this asset is experiencing in the calculation of the average retracement. Without taking this running fourth iteration into consideration, the result would be extremely similar, being a -69.08% instead of a -68.60%. The ultimate point of this analysis is to be wary for when the indicator slope changes to the upside, which would signify a very high chance (technically 100% for now, but there are just four iterations available, so take that with a grain of salt) that the bull market is officially resuming, and another macro bottom is finally in. - ADDITIONAL INFORMATION - While I don't think it's necessary to turn this into a more complex study, if you wish to look for additional information, check out the YouTube channel "Eric Krown Crypto", he has a slightly different approach than mine on this matter but has a lot of valuable knowledge to offer. I want to clarify that I'm not affiliated with the person running that channel, but I've learned a lot from him over the last four years, so I'm giving credit where credit is due, while - hopefully - helping you.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Andewyl
2/27/2023 (Monday) SPY Analysis and Market Deep DiveMonday 2/27/2023 - In this Video I discuss The technical analysis of the SPY ETF which is a proxy the S&P500 that is often a tell on general market movements. I also discuss broader market Macros I have been watching including last week's and next weeks economic events. We also discuss some recession indicators, and other charts that show headwinds and tailwinds to equities. In the Trading View App, You can use the links below and hit play, so you can see the action from the dates the charts were published. I will keep this going so we can follow outcomes to analysis! SORRY I RAN OUT OF TIME, I ONLY HAD a minute to go and I would have had to start from scratch as TV tools dont edit. Sorry!
AMEX:SPYLong
by Markets-Sniper
Fundamental and Technical Analysis | FebuaryTable of Content: 1. Eurozone Inflation Data 2. US Economics Growth 3. NVDA 4. Commodities 5. Technical Analysis 1. Eurozone Inflation Data The Eurozone's inflation for the month of January has exceeded the previously estimated figures, as reported by MarketWatch on February 23. It has been emphasized by policymakers that the economy is undergoing a disinflation process, and a soft landing has been achieved. However, the recent surge in inflation within the European Union implies a substantial escalation in interest rates. 2. US Economic Growth The US economy experienced a less robust economic expansion than previously estimated in the fourth quarter, as evidenced by a downward revision in consumer spending. This adjustment has resulted in weaker economic growth (Bloomberg). The total amount of outstanding credit card debt in the United States has reached $986 billion, with an average interest rate of 20%. This marks the highest level of credit card debt since the 1980s and translates into an interest payment of $200 billion per year. These figures do not include other forms of debt such as mortgages, student loans, and car loans, which are likely to exacerbate the situation. At the same time, the US government is paying over $200 billion in interest payments The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index has risen from 5.3% to 5.4%, however, this data alone is insufficient to support the notion of disinflation. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been revised downwards from 2.9% to 2.7% (a decrease of 0.2%) from the preceding quarter. According to Bloomberg, the US economy experienced a weaker expansion than originally projected. Revised fourth-quarter inflation figures have been adjusted upward. Additionally, JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon stated that "The Federal Reserve has lost a little bit of control of inflation". He has been warning about the economy for a while and I believe that he knows something is cracking as we speak. 3. NVDA The stock price of $NVDA experienced double-digit growth. The stock price has risen by 100% since the beginning of the year. Revenues and profits have both decreased by 21% and 52% respectively on a year-over-year basis, and every segment of the business has exhibited a decline over the same period. The CEO placed significant emphasis on the importance of Artificial Intelligence, yet he sold stocks worth over $100 million prior to the market's significant downturn and may presently be engaged in additional sales. 4. Commodities The statement suggests an anticipated appreciation in the value of the US dollar, which is reflected in the downward movements of gold, silver, platinum, copper, and various grains such as corn, rice, and soybean. Conversely, energy commodities are experiencing an upward trend, with natural gas exhibiting a significant increase. 5. Technical Analysis The 21-day weighted ratio of equity-only put-to-call options is suggestive of a preponderance of puts in the market and indicates a significant degree of buying pressure. This metric has demonstrated a high degree of efficacy in identifying market highs and lows by suggesting a move in the opposite direction to the put/call ratio. Notably, during the present bear market, the ratio has achieved a 100% success rate. Furthermore, the current volume of call options is the highest on record, and retail investors are contributing $1.1 billion daily to the market. -Momentum indicators: RSI and MACD moving downwards and volume remain below average (bearish) As previously stated, " I will take the opportunity of a rise in equity markets to short BTC at higher levels". I have now filled all my short position on BTC in a confident manner. Below is my BTC outlook Conclusion: The recent market rally, spurred by technical indicators, high-quantity puts, and government emphasis on disinflation, has led to a surge in retail investment. As a result, prices for some assets have skyrocketed, and the quantity of long positions in the market has reached alarming levels. This suggests an overabundance of buying and a lack of liquidity that could cause the market to dip and potentially result in retail closures, as inflation has proven to be more persistent than anticipated by governments. I remain committed to my long-term investment plan, I am acknowledging the growing fissures in some economies that could lead to a catastrophic downturn. It is essential to remain vigilant and prepare for potential market turbulence in the future. As previously mentioned, my portfolio consists of short-term bonds, USD, SPX shorts, BTC Shorts, small quantity gold, and just acquired Natural gas contracts. For personal records but feel free to discuss or argue.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by ssavi
2/20/2023 (Monday) SPY Analysis and Market Deep DiveMonday 2/20/2023 - In this Video I discuss The technical analysis of the SPY ETF which is a proxy the S&P500 that is often a tell on general market movements. I also discuss broader market Macros I have been watching including last week's and next weeks economic events. We also discuss some recession indicators, and other charts that show headwinds and tailwinds to equities. In the Trading View App, You can use the links below and hit play, so you can see the action from the dates the charts were published. I will keep this going so we can follow outcomes to analysis!
AMEX:SPYLong
by Markets-Sniper
Nasdaq, massive distribution? Nasdaq have been in sideway for the first half of Feb 2023 During this period we have 1) FOMC meeting 2) CPI data 3) PPI Data 4) Unemployment Data 5) Retails During the FOMC on the 1st of Feb 2023, Powell was confident of a soft landing. He mentioned the word "disinflation" approximately 20 times. He gave the green light for the market to rally by stating he does not think the financial conditions have eased since Dec 2022's FOMC. The market rejoiced and rallied.... for one day and then proceed to go sideways for the next 2 weeks. During these 2 weeks, all economic data show signs that there was no sign of disinflation. MoM CPI was revised higher for Dec 2022 from negative 0.1% to positive 0.1% Jan 2023's MoM CPI went back up by 0.5% YoY PPI went was 6% compared to the consensus of 5.4% MOM PPI went up by 0.7% instead of the consensus 0.4% (HOLY SHIT!!! F ME! IT IS almost doubled the consensus) Unemployment went down to 3.4%, the lowest since 1969 (low unemployment equates to higher consumer spending equates to higher inflation) MoM Retail sales went up 3% instead of the consensus 1.8& (HOLY SHIT!!) If the critical support is broken, we have a long way down. Much like inflation in 2021, maybe this "disinflation" is also transitory
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by NimbusCapital
US Market, Short retrace or all the way down?10YY is back at Dec 2022 high, yet S&P is far from Dec 2022 low. 100Y has broken out above resistance. The dollar continues to show strength. No doubt, there is bound to be a market retracement coming up. If you FOMO during the last week, you may want to trim some long positions. The next question is, will a new higher low be created? There are 2 possible scenarios ahead 1) S&P bottom at a level higher than 3800 (Dec's 2022 low), hence a higher low. Inflation continues to decline. The dollar continues to weaken. Soft landing and bull market is confirmed but it won't be as strong as the 2020 post covid. 2) YoY Inflation creates a higher low and rises back above 6.5%. The dollar continues to rally. 10YY continues to rise and retest the high at 4.3%. Then we may see S&P breaking 3800 and maybe even restest 3500. Our portfolio is neutral for Feb 2023, but we may start pivoting to short bias. We have shared a few potential shorts ($AAPL and $HD). However, a short bias portfolio does not mean the entire portolio is filled with SQQQ or CFD S&P short. By playing a careful selection of individual stocks, we can choose the degree of our bearishness. We are still carrying some long positions in the utility/clean energy and shipping sector. As we see more data, we will get more bearish or less bearish. DYODD
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by NimbusCapital
1
Bitcoin Bull Trap??? Bitcoin blasted thru all bunch of major resistance then sells off like crazy.... Bull Trap!!? Bitcoin needs to hold the yellow trend line, at least. Not surprised to see Bitcoin doing this here. Upon all seriousness the markets are still uncertain due to the Macro economic environment. I think the reason for the BTC upside is the fact that a lot of Shorts got liquidated (Short Squeeze) plus there are some positive stuff happening in Crypto in other countries. All this Celsius, BlokFi, FTX, Voyager, 3 Arrows Capital and probably a bunch I missed, has already been priced in IMO. This is a very interesting time in the world with one of the biggest shift in monetary policy we will ever see in our life times. Any who, hope you are positioned well as we head into uncharted territory as the World is changing faster and faster by the days passing. Good Luck Out There!
by BuddaCo_LifeStyle
2
Don't Fight The FedU.S. CPI inflation data was published on Tuesday. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, inflation data came in hot at 0.21% above expectations. Despite inflation slowing YoY, expectations had been that current data would come out lower. Consequently, risk assets and equities have taken a short-term hit whilst the dollar gained some bullish momentum as this data increases the possibility of future Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes. What matters more in trading is often how the market reacts to news rather than the news itself. And at least for now, markets did not take the news too badly. Meanwhile, US January Retail Sales came in >1% above expectations. Is this bullish because the economy is doing better than expected? Or bearish, because the Fed will have more reason to hike? It remains to be seen. A further signal will be how markets react to the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) announcement that they are suing a stablecoin issuer. This time, Binance is in the firing line as the SEC labelled Binance’s stablecoin BUSD as an “unregistered security” and announced legal proceedings against its issuer Paxos. The interesting point is that to be labelled as a security, an asset must meet the Howey Test criteria. Part of this criteria requires that there must be an expectation of profit when buying an asset. How the SEC has established that an “expectation of profit” is present when purchasing a stablecoin remains to be seen. One clear thing is that since the FTX debacle, there has been a profound push from U.S. authorities towards regulating and restricting the crypto industry. Just last month, Binance was forced to terminate their USD on and off-ramps. So far, the market is taking the news well. From a technical perspective, the Bitcoin daily chart looks healthy. The market is in the midst of a small correction following the rally from the beginning of January. The bulls will hope that the 0.382 Fibonacci level holds as strong support before the rally can continue up towards the next key resistance at around $25,000. An important note is that MA9 and MA50 are beginning to converge. The bears will be hoping for a death cross where MA9 crosses below MA50, likely providing the market with some short-term bearish momentum. In order for a new bull market to begin, the technical setups must align with the broader macroeconomic perspective. Although the technicals look good on various timeframes, economic factors, Fed policy and U.S. authorities like the SEC waging war against the industry make it unlikely that the market will get a convergence of both technical and macroeconomic indicators until after the 2024 election. Until we get an alignment of these perspectives, it seems wise to keep the words of famed investor Martin Zweig in our minds: Don’t fight the Fed.
by Coinrule
2/13/2023 Upcoming SPY and Market diveIn this Video I discuss upcoming events quickly, then dive into the weekly analysis of the SPY ETF which is a good proxy for the S&P500 that is often a tell on general market movements. We also discuss some recession indicators, and some pattern analysis. Also dont Forget CPI is released on the 15th. You can jump to the below links and hit the play from the dates submitted and it will play out the bars from publishing until now. I will keep this going so we can follow outcomes to analysis!
AMEX:SPYLong
by Markets-Sniper
My thoughts about BTC bottoming Last several years I've been using many tools to analyze, and try to take advantage of opportunities in terms of long-term market structure on BTC . One of the main tools I really like to use and came with the most reward so to speak, is a specific Fib level. It proved to read with a very good probability the potential bottom of BTC ( especially BTC ) on the higher timeframes. As you can see on the chart, each cycle has a corresponding fib plotted which starts at the H and goes to the L of that particular cycle. The fib levels presented are only 2, with the green one being the "default", and the gray one being a secondary, only touched once, after a crisis-like moment in 2011. I believe this year we will be seeing it again, so the chart plots both levels and my expectation is that the bottom would be somewhere inside the range of $8K to $13K by end of Q3 2023. The projection coincides with a potential additional drop of the stock market this year, and the overall macroeconomic conditions we are living through. We will see how things play out, but I am building confidence on the usefulness of these levels.
BNC:BLX
by rafblz
$SPY Long Term Chart - Possible Downtrend Breakout$SPY Long Term Chart - Possible Downtrend Breakout Not a recommendation, just an observation. This could be the beginning of a new long term uptrend - though it's dependent on a lot of different macro & geopolitical factors in the next 3-6 months. (i.e. inflation readings, FED actions, war in Ukraine, etc) Q1-Q2 2023 could begin to see a rotation out of defensive/value stocks and back toward growth stocks. Possible SPY breaks $500 mark by year end. (long-shot) *This is NOT financial advice. Opinion only.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Triple_Barrel_Capital
Bear Markets are for Building?Friends, fundamentally things could not be looking any better for Ethereum. Multiple Central Banks are now building on Ethereum infrastructure. (1)(2)(3) Treasury Tokenization thanks to Blackrock (will increase TVL ) (4) Circle launching a Euro Stable Coin - which will increase adoption. (5) Additional stable coins to follow! Uniswap entering the FX market , slashing costs by a projected 80%! (6) European Investment Bank (EIB) launches successful digital bond on Ethereum Blockchain (7) Ethereum crossing over 100 million unique wallets (8) Ethereum has more developers working on it then any other chain, with 16% of all new entrants building on ETH Ethereum validators surged to 500,000 ! Shanghai upgrade is not even out yet. The ETH protocol is not censor resistant , so while there are many OFAC-compliant blocks- validators are not forced to comply. ETH is ESG Friendly , while Bloomberg warns Bitcoin is still being powered by China Coal (bad optics with energy prices in Europe recently) (9) ETH is deflationary (Bitcoin & the USD are INFLATIONARY) (10) The good news goes on & on - as I have not even gone over ZK Rollups, Scaling, Sharding etc. Scarcity + Demand = Prices Rising So what does all this mean fundamentally? Due to the burning mechanism in the protocol - with heavier adoption their is more burn. More burn means more scarcity. Inflation increases supply, this protocol decreases the supply through swaps. With central banks and 9 TRILLION moved on chain from USDC alone (not even accounting for DAI, USDT, or BUSD - the Binance stable coin is a also an ERC-20 token) adoption is rising We will see more stable coins continuing to increase adoption resulting in more eth burning. When it comes to price: Deflation>Inflation Adoption is growing on this network. There is real value, there is real TVL. Since the merge... -->BTC Supply GREW by 110 BTC ($2.5B) --> ETH Supply SHRUNK by 2,830 ETH ($4.5M) Bitcoin/Ethereum Commentary I have had angry direct messages in the past advising how Bitcoin is PROTECTION against inflation, how could it inflate if the supply is capped? Even with a capped supply that will be targeted in 140 years (generations) the BTC inflation rate is +1.716%/year. To make the situation graver - the miners create constant selling pressure powering the energy intensive network, coupled with physical hardware that has to be purchased & maintained. This equates to costs. To pay for costs, miners must sell bitcoin to keep the network safe - creating constant selling pressure. If you have made it to this point, please let me know your thoughts! If I am missing a key piece of information, or you find something shared as inaccurate, please point it out so the whole TradingView community can benefit from it. Citation 1 - www.bloomberg.com 2 - www.rba.gov.au 3 - www.centralbanking.com 4 - www.investing.com 5 - www.circle.com 6 - uniswap.org 7 - www.eib.org 8 - www.tradingview.com 9 - www.bloomberg.com 10 - ultrasound.money
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by ZenMode
6