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Macro

Crypto/Gold AnalysisCurrent economic and political general dismay impacts the valuation of different fiat currencies, specifically the USD(DXY). This is due to: Lower global trade activity (recession) = lower dollar supply = USD price increase Demand for USD increases for the safe haven currency = USD price increase Worldwide investors' stakes in equities and cryptocurrencies have been shortened. The price of Bitcoin is declining further with the US dollar substantially rallying. Nevertheless, its arguable intrinsic value may be better approximated through spread graphs, particularly - BTC/GOLD; as it omits the mentioned political and economic supply/demand effects for a more precise analysis. This may be recognised through technical analysis of past prices The main graph presents GOLD/BTC breaking out its long-term resistance; which logically makes sense. history reminds us: The upcoming recession doesn't look promising for such volatile securities with (arguably) no intrinsic value Inflation = Gold is Bullish Potential Trade Short BTC: Entry Price:16,700 TP:15,515 SL:16,920
TVC:GOLDShort
by Sanzhar_m
4
BTC HTF OUTLOOKBTC retesting downtrend resistance after an initial breakout. Since the confirmation of a top in bitcoin and a confirmation of a lower high and therefor downtrend, almost exactly a year later BTC broke out of the downtrend and rallied to 21.5k before a macro news event causing fear and mass selling back down to local lows of 17k. which also coincides with a retest of the trendline. If BTC can hold and rally off these lows it would be a strong place to start building for the next bull market. However if this area of support fails then a further drop down to 14k is possible. Not financial advice
by ProR35
1
Watching EURUSD After a Historic CrashThe EURUSD is down 13 of the last 15 months. That is red after red after red. The bearish sentiment is about as extreme as I can remember, ever, for any currency. I usually do not trade FX and I should be clear, I do not have a position in the Euro at this moment. But I do want to write about a few things that have caught my attention. Foremost, I think it is pretty interesting that the EURUSD is not only at parity, but also slightly below parity. This makes capital flows rather easy, if not effortless for Americans to invest in Europe or want to get involved in Europe. It also makes exports more competitive for Europe to other countries. There is a point where these levels just do not make sense from a broad, macro standpoint. The strength of the Dollar makes investment into Europe that much more attractive. If you have dollars, you can now afford more. I would add that there are 764 million people in Europe, with many of the greatest cities on Earth. Actually, that is something that I do find interesting. I follow many smart investors/traders on social media. The majority of them are extremely bearish on Europe and the Euro. I have seen it all from them - social disparity! energy crisis! bad leadership! And the list goes on. HOWEVER, when I see that they are on vacation, with the family or taking time for themselves, where do they go? Pictures of Italy, Greece, and more. I find this to be a tad ironic, and also interesting. What I mean is, to be so bearish about a region, but then for that region to also be your number one vacation spot. I myself need to get back to Europe - I really love French organic wines! One more important thing about a weak Euro: it makes European exports far more competitive. When they produce goods, relative to the Dollar, it now does not cost as much. In addition, that means they can sell their product for less. This means they can compete with more brands and services. It will lower prices, thus, make the product more attractive and easier to consume. Exports can be a great thing for a country! In this case, it's for many countries across Europe. There are many more interesting developments that I am thinking about - for example home buying the region, but that is for another post, and let me not waste any more of your time. Let's talk trade levels! The levels in yellow that I marked are from 2001/2002. That happened after the tech crash. If this is another tech crash, well we have further to go. In addition, that kind of pattern, and price behavior might be something to WAIT for. Hey, what's the rush. Lastly, I did highlight the extent of this sell-off. Month after month of selling. Even as a mean reversion trade I would wager there is some potential to return to rather significant moving average. The 200 day moving average is at 1.24, for example! Could it ever return there? If you do your own research, check out where the 50-day and 100-day moving averages are. You may also find that interesting. Okay that's all for now! Thanks for reading and good luck.
by scheplick
5
BTC, Is the Bear Market Over?BTC looks like it has completed a triangle for the final wave of a diametric pattern which began in mid 2021. We will likely see a rapid melt up from here. Targets are well above all time high if we can confirm the end of this bear market. Macro LARPers will get rekt trying to short into extremely high and sticky inflation. Alts will outperform BTC because of regulatory changes coming in the next year that will clarify securities laws and end SEC manipulation of crypto markets.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Intuit
Pain is just starting for crypto - 3k area at play?! for Pain is just starting. The US treasury bonds are decreasing as the debt to GDP ratio is going through quantitative cumulative tightening resulting in increased pressure on subscription prices and falling demand for butter cookies and other commodities. This will only worsen as the BOJ (Bank of Japan) is issuing rate hikes at a pace of 75 bipperinos per hike, eventually leading to a bottleneck in its economical orbit. This could lead to two scenarios : recessional (unilateral) crash or hyperdeflationary catalytic sme-GMA event as seen in 1945. As of now, any long is destined to be a losing trade. The probability of a bottom across US equities is low as they're indirectly correlated to the rate of growth in Brazilian government subsidized index KRVM4GA , which has been seeing major bearish divergences as the ambassador of Peru declared Brazil to be debt-solvent, meaning that its portfolio of foreign asset is absorbing damage at unsustainable pace, with no sign of improvement until FY2036. Furthermore, FAANG companies are set to launch a global campaign in support of Ukrainians, which puts pressure on Kremlin forces currently controlling the black sea canal ; all of this could lead to a shortage in wheat and forced selling on the BVT-PLU5 index , possibly impacting the life of millions of Europeans, thus directly decreasing their income and risk appetite when it comes to volatile assets like BTC. Overall, this puts global macro conditions in a dangerous spot as they are set to worsen by EOY, possibly reaching a doomsday-level bankrun scenario. For those reasons, I will be looking for shorts (and shorts only) until we hit the 3k area (possibly marking the bottom for this cycle).
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by deathtotrade
12
DXY vs BTC - MACRO 2013-2022 Cycle Hi/LoDXY vs BTC - MACRO 2013-2022 Cycle Hi/Lo ______ DXY US Dollar Index , Weekly chart vs Bitcoin . Again, I'm banging the table how important the DXY is and how it inverses Bitcoin . I'm looking at going back to 2013, but you can go back to 2010 as well. We'll go back to 2013 here. BTC cycle top 2013. DXY hanging around the lows. DXY went on a bull run. Bitcoin went on a bear run. Bitcoin dropped roughly 86%. DXY topped out, 2016 2017. DXY dropped bear market for the DXY - Bull market for BTC . BTC ran into December, 2017 to 20K, roughly 2500% gain. Again, DXY went on a run into Covid. Bitcoin went bear, roughly 80% drop on Bitcoin . DXY topped out. Bitcoin went on a bull run Bitcoin up 1400% into 65 K, 69K cycle tops. DXY went parabolic as we see now into current market conditions. Bitcoin , roughly 75% bear market. DXY possibly topping out at 114. Overbought on the weekly turning over, overbought on the monthly turning over, overbought on the three month turning over...BUT the daily is getting oversold rather quickly. So, keep an eye on the DXY .! If this is cycle top for the DXY = near or at cycle bottom for Bitcoin . If the DXY continues to run, Bitcoin's going to possibly hang around this 18 to 20K support or even go to new lows (watching those BTC CME Futures gaps below us all the way down to 9700) Keep an eye on the DXY . Stay chill!
TVC:DXY
by UnknownUnicorn7216011
BTC is ready for a BIG MOVE in the next monthThere are eery similarities to the 2018 bear market with BTC having gone quiet for 129 days, since this year's low on the 16th June. In 2018, we had a period of 143 days from the local low on the 24th June, to the capitulation triggered on the 14th Nov. A further move down of -46% was the result. However, history rhymes but doesn't usually repeat. So could we in fact be in the accumulation phase, similar to 2018 directly after the capitulation? Have a look at the 108 day period from the 2018 low on 15th Dec to the breakout on the 2nd Apr 2019, where there was a period of relative inactivity, just like the one we're going through now. When we look purely at like for like similarities, the capitulation scenario seems more likely. But that seems all too easy to anticipate. With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both finding potential macro lows in the last two weeks, perhaps we are coming to the end of the accumulation phase, and about to make a big move up? Either way, I'm going to be ready for both scenarios!
BNC:BLX
by kevlar23
3
Pine Editor Shortcuts Hotkeys (All Hidden Included)For Those who have not explored, Here is the list of All the shortcut keys available. Very useful for Macros 'show settings menu' - "CONTROL - ," "command - , 'go to next error' - "ALT - e" "F4" 'go to previous error' - "ALT - SHIFT - e" "SHIFT - F4" 'select all' - "CONTROL - a" "command - a" 'center selection' - "CONTROL - l" 'go to line' - "CONTROL - l" "command - l" 'fold' - "ALT - l |or| CONTROL - F1" 'unfold' - "ALT - SHIFT - l |or| CONTROL - SHIFT - F1" 'toggle fold widget' - "F2" "F2" 'toggle parent fold widget' - "ALT - F2" "ALT - F2" 'fold all' - "CONTROL - command - option-0" 'fold other' - "ALT - 0" "command - option-0" 'unfold all' - "ALT - SHIFT - 0" "command-option-SHIFT - 0" 'find next' - "CONTROL - k" "command - g" 'find previous' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - k" "command-SHIFT - g" 'selector find next' - "ALT - k" "CONTROL - g" 'selector find previous' - "ALT - SHIFT - k" "CONTROL - SHIFT - g" 'find' - "CONTROL - F" "command - f" 'overwrite' - "insert" 'select to start' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - home" 'go to start' - "CONTROL - home" "command - home |or| command-UP" 'select UP' - "SHIFT - UP" "SHIFT - UP |or| CONTROL - SHIFT - p" 'go lineup' - "UP" "UP |or| CONTROL - p" 'select to end' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - end" 'go to end' - "CONTROL - end" "command - end |or| command-DOWN" 'select DOWN' - "SHIFT - DOWN" "SHIFT - DOWN |or| CONTROL - SHIFT - n" 'go line DOWN' - "DOWN" "DOWN |or| CONTROL - n" 'select word LEFT' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - LEFT" "option-SHIFT - LEFT" 'go to word LEFT' - "CONTROL - LEFT" "option - LEFT" 'select to line start' - "ALT - SHIFT - LEFT" 'go to line start' - "ALT - LEFT |or| home" 'select LEFT' - "SHIFT - LEFT" "SHIFT - LEFT |or| CONTROL - SHIFT - b" 'go to LEFT' - "LEFT" "LEFT |or| CONTROL - b" 'select word RIGHT' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - RIGHT" "option-SHIFT - RIGHT" 'go to word RIGHT' - "CONTROL - RIGHT" "option - RIGHT" 'select to line end' - "ALT - SHIFT - RIGHT" 'go to line end' - "ALT - RIGHT |or| end" 'select RIGHT' - "SHIFT - RIGHT" "SHIFT - RIGHT" 'go to RIGHT' - "RIGHT" "RIGHT |or| CONTROL - F" 'select page DOWN' - "SHIFT - pagedown" 'page DOWN' - "option - pagedown" 'go to page DOWN' - "pagedown" "pagedown |or| CONTROL - v" 'select page UP' - "SHIFT - pageup" 'page UP' - "option - pageup" 'go to page UP' - "pageup" 'scroll UP' - "CONTROL - UP" 'scroll DOWN' - "CONTROL - DOWN" 'select line start' - "SHIFT - home" 'select line end' - "SHIFT - end" 'toggle recording' - "CONTROL - ALT - e" "command-option-e" 'replay macro' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - e" "command-SHIFT - e" 'jump to matching' - "CONTROL - p" "CONTROL - p" 'select to matching' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - p" "CONTROL - SHIFT - p" 'expand to matching' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - m" "CONTROL - SHIFT - m" 'remove line' - "CONTROL - d" "command-d" 'duplicate selection' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - d" "command-SHIFT - d" 'sort lines' - "CONTROL - ALT - s" "command-ALT - s" 'toggle comment' - "CONTROL - /" "command-/" 'toggle block comment' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - /" "command-SHIFT - /" 'modify number UP' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - UP" "ALT - SHIFT - UP" 'modify number DOWN' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - DOWN" "ALT - SHIFT - DOWN" 'replace' - "CONTROL - h" "command-option-f" 'undo' - "CONTROL - z" "command-z" 'redo' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - z |or| CONTROL - y" 'copy lines UP' - "ALT - SHIFT - UP" "command-option-UP" 'move lines UP' - "ALT - UP" "option - UP" 'copy lines DOWN' - "ALT - SHIFT - DOWN" "command-option-DOWN" 'move lines DOWN' - "ALT - DOWN" "option-DOWN" 'del' - "delete" "delete |or| CONTROL - d |or| SHIFT - delete" 'backspace' - "SHIFT - backspace |or| backspace" 'cut or delete' - "SHIFT - delete" 'remove to line start' - "ALT - backspace" "command-backspace" 'remove to line end' - "ALT - delete" "CONTROL - k |or| command-delete" 'remove to line start hard' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - backspace" 'remove to line end hard' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - delete" 'remove word LEFT' - "CONTROL - backspace" 'remove word RIGHT' - "CONTROL - delete" "ALT - delete" 'outdent' - "SHIFT - tab" "SHIFT - tab" 'indent' - "tab" "tab" 'block outdent' - "CONTROL - [" "CONTROL - [" 'block indent' - "CONTROL - ]" "CONTROL - ]" 'split line' - "CONTROL - o" 'transpose letters' - "ALT - SHIFT - x" "CONTROL - t" 'to uppercase' - "CONTROL - u" "CONTROL - u" 'to lowercase' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - u" "CONTROL - SHIFT - u" 'expand to line' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - l" "command-SHIFT - l"
BEducation
by kaigouthro
Dollar slows for Thanksgiving or Christmas 2022Jerome Powell is the #1 Financial terrorist on Planet Earth right now, soon the powers above him will demand an end to his regime of Maximizing damage upon Working People around the globe Hyper financialization of all goods and services has proven to be a failed experiment. the global economy needs to organically re-organize and re-energize itself. One single un-elected US bureacrat is not suited to fix this calamity - and based on FED predications, analysis, and results of their actions - they are incompetent to the challenge at hand
ICEUS:DXYShort
by noam_chom
btc/usdtBitcoin is in a bad shape which it means cheap BTC. Death Cross can spot the bottom based on history. Of course I can get wrong and BTC do the opposite. The right mindset is to be aware of both scenarios. And this time the economy overall is looking weak. Once Macro will improve, the BTC price will increase. Everyone is expecting lower prices for BTC right now and calling road to 10-12-14k. Usually when the majority is bearish the markets are doing the opposites. !!! Not financial advice.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by cryptoforevery1
(1D) S&P500 WXY DOUBLE ZIGZAG CORRECTIONPossible Double Zigzag (WXY) pattern playing out on S&P500, which started from the ATH in January and is still on going. In my previous analysis from 2020 (linked below), I proposed that the ENTIRE history of the S&P500 so far is simply part of a 5 wave bull Impulse, which is still on going. Within this bull Impulse, we are currently in Wave 3, which itself is turning out to be an 3rd Wave Extension made up of 9 waves. This Wave 3 started at the end of the Housing Market Crash in early 2009. Of this Extended 3rd wave, the current WXY correction we are in represents Wave 8 before we resume the bull trend to complete the extended Wave 3, which will then start the 2nd major correction on the bull impulse mentioned before on the macro scale. The first major correction (Wave 2) was a 3 wave correction consisting of the Dot Com Crash and Housing Market Crash. According to this analysis, we are still in for some pain well into the new year, so hang tight! Trade responsibly. #EverythingIsAlreadyWritten
OANDA:SPX500USD
by PHICAPITALINVESTMENTS
1
ETHUSD - will it bottom in 90 days?I guess that ether will build an inverse head & shoulders pattern in its bottoming process with the lower head happening in early 2023 - somewhere in the range of 677 and 725. The right shoulder will be complete by the summer of 2023, and a new bull market will begin by the fall of 2023. This should align with the macro environment as rate hikes should slow and gives time for the fed to pivot and begin pulling the economy out of recession with inflation and the war calming down.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by learningedge
1
Bitcoin Trend Analytics October 11 BTC is about to leave the downward channel. After that, the trend will develop into new patterns. It is likely to go sideways based on the current data. Strength is contracting, cultivating a breakout. Yesterday short-term pressure forced the price down to test the speculative capital inflow at $19109.80-$18798.44. After testing twice on $19109.80 at 16:00 and 00:00 (UTC+8), BTC closed an intraday low at $18950, which is now under testing. This area is not replenished with new capital inflows. The remaining capital sustains the price. We should monitor this area - if it’s broken down, BTC could slide down. Set protections. $19882.81 is still a battleground. Only by taking hold of it could it reach neutral or the movement is still bearish. The market expected interest rate hike in November: 75bp(78.4%),50bp(21.6%)
by BitMidas
3
Macro Bear Market JUST beginning??BTC is in a very dangerous spot right now, people aren't losing their jobs fast enough (unemployment at 3.5%!!) and Netflix keep on raising subscription prices in Ukraine (war!!!) The FED might have to issue more hikes all the way to 2024, mid terms are also coming which is historically bearish for extreme risk assets (BTC??!!) TA wise, BTC is forming an extremely BEARISH descending triangle (explosive move?,!!) which could see 3k target in no time Trade wisely and close any longs, cut your losses if required as this will get MUCH much worse Macro-economical factors seem to be pointing to a structural bear market could take up to 111 months for full recovery (according to Goldman Sachs) Please share this idea as I will be providing more tips on how to navigate a full blown financial collapse!! CAREFUL
Short
by deathtotrade
5