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Macroanalysis

NZD-USD Fundemental and Macro AnalysisThis weekend's market is expected to be relatively quiet. They will not produce large effects or move, and they will most likely not affect all pairings. We should proceed with caution, but the New Zealand dollar and the United States dollar have a very high possibility of gaining ground because of recent performance and statistics that I have obtained. After that, I'm going to stick with this currency pair for the weekend. Everyone should use caution, even if they have high expectations.
Long
by Idealadvantage
BTCUSD Big PictureBTCUSD price started for as low as $0.00008, while it was initially released on the 9th of January, 2009. Just like the Evolution of the Earth, it moved gradually pip by pip until there was a major outburst from August 2017. December 2017, BTCUSD price crashed from $20,000 to estimately $3,000 by January, 2019 through March 2020. The Demand for Bitcoin really increased which pushed the price to $67,000 last month, making it the All time high and ever since then it is in the $60,000 range. Looking forward to see BTCUSD at $1,000,000 comes next decade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by OceanMan1000
Thoughts on macro conditions for European banksIt is no secret that in the Basel III era, the core profitability of European banks has not been satisfactory. While European banks' return on equity is not even close to the pre-07 levels and falls short on their cost of capital, US banks enjoy double-digit ROE and significantly higher valuations. This mismatch made me wonder whether the current macroeconomic landscape gives EU banking some hope for a rebound and closing the US-EU profitability gap. At the first sight, forward-looking macro indicators seem to be favourable for EU banks. GDP growth rapidly accelerated after the 2020 slump, inflation is remarkably high and the central bank will have to increase interest rates sooner than later. But still, return on equity and consequently, valuations of European banks still look quite modest when compared to their US equivalents. The underlying problem behind the profitability underperformance of European banks is overcapacity. Competitive pressure is high and additionally, banks have to deal with the increasing fintech sector. The problem could be targeted by the supervisors (higher capital requirements for new entrants, lack of “credible integration plans'' etc) but market forces are necessary to successfully combat low concentration. Historically, the years following implementation of more strict regulation (Basel III) should result in decreased profitability of banks (no surprise) and consequently more movement towards higher market concentration. However, last year M&A volume in European banking was far from impressive. According to the KPMG European Banking Consolidation report, the volume of mergers and acquisitions involving European banks in 2020 reached its lowest level since the 07-08 crisis. To be clear, a strong downtrend in the M&A volume has been observed since 2010 so the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 was not a direct cause. The current financial landscape seems to be favourable for mergers and acquisitions volume increase. Low interest rates, relatively cheap bank equity, loosening of M&A regulation and need for restructuring in response to digital transformation. Thus, forecasts for the M&A volume in banking are relatively generous. The exogenous determinants I described are only a fraction of the whole banking landscape. Bank-specific factors and digital transformation are equally valid components. Nevertheless, bearing in mind the historical tendency of banks to concentrate more in response to new regulations and promising M&A volume outlook, I am optimistic.
XETR:CXPBLong
by UnknownUnicorn27189777
Macro analysis of the Crypto market in relation to equities/DXYIn order to go long: I want to see COINBASE:BTCUSD push through the .5 fib convincingly as well as test that incoming pitchfork after yesterday's doji candle. You can see that I have overlayed BTC shorts on the same chart. They were inching up earlier, but have resumed the floor it's been testing. The AMEX:SPY seems confused going into the weekend (won't let me tag ES). Holding 4093 which was a major support this week, along with 4085, even though the waters were tested this AM in the futures market. The Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements on the bottom show that the Treasury is not done and supporting this market heavily still. If equities can hold off from dumping, we may see the Crypto Total Market Cap test it's Spring highs this upcoming Winter. Right now that CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL is meeting resistance around 1.5T. The DXY has rallied slightly off COMC news on Wednesday that inflation is still transitory, despite missing projections. If we can see the dollar lose some strength here we would see the S&P rally like we saw from Nov-Feb as well as in April, which would be fantastic. We can see the BTC.D is rising and it is yet to be seen if BTC.D will bounce off of 50%. If BTC.D can rage along with the Total Crypto Market Cap, I expect alts to be okay and BTC fomo to take place. Idiots that are holding too many alts and bought all the alt dips after purchasing the top will probably get burnt and I wouldn't be surprised to see something similar to what we saw around Thanksgiving 2020 when the Crypto market sold off prior to it's massive growth in late 2020 into early 2021. Lastly, pending the EIP1559 upgrade on Aug 4th, I projected a price of 2500 a week or so ago on COINBASE:ETHUSD (not on here, but I don't really give a damn - that's still my target). I expect volatility that day and for many traders to take this upgrade as a "sell the news" opportunity. However, if BTC breaks through the pitchfork as I alluded to in the first sentence, this 2500 target may be smashed through and CRYPTOCAP:ETH.D might give BTC.D a run for it's money if the news really picks up on it. I would love to see 1559 force ETH to challenge previous ATHs, but we will have to wait on the market to open Sunday, in addition to what Crypto has in store for us over the weekend. For awhile, the only thing certain was a crypto sell-off during the weekend, but last week the market really recovered into what we have at the moment.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Abstractions
Ethereum it's prepare for the grow up in the next weeks!!!In this macro-analysis looking in weekly timeframe. Ethereum make the confirmation in the past weeks and we see a good signal that Ethereum it's extremely bullish in the next weeks. I apply the Fibonacci and we see another extra confirmation above of $1,400 USD that was an important support to valid that the Ethereum bull run it's true. And looking the monthly timeframe, remember that Ethereum it's so bullish in this timeframe and I have my targets at $10,000 USD, $20,000 USD and also $30,000 USD it';s possible huge objective. Now, if you see in medium term, we have the $3,000 USD, $4,000 USD and $5,000 USD for the Ethereum price. That it's in weekly timeframe and I have these targets that we can to see around o this next bullish movement on Ethereum, but obviously we are approaching to $2,000 USD. Guys, if you like this idea and you found out good contents in my Ethereum macro-analysis. I invite you to share this analysis with others traders, Ethereum enthusiastic and people who want to know the Ethereum trend, and the rest o crytpo-community.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by harisonhbn9718
6
I will going to bougth Silver!!! Why?Hello, in that analysis on macrotrend and dedicated more to invest for commodities, specially Silver. We see that monthly timeframe it's so bullish in long term toward to reach up new higher price. So, Silver show us a good opportunity to continue bought Silver contracts in any broker. I use Prime XBT and with Prime XBT you can to multiply your bitcoin and apply this strategy, So, for that reason, I foudn out this analysis very interesting if you want to invest in Silver for bought assets or bought by contract just the increment your capital. But for that reason, Silver it's a metal very important and the use it's money like Gold to protect and store your money value in the hard assets that are autonomous, soberany and solid assets that they'll protect your money agains the inflation. In that case, the U.S. Dollar it's the unique currencies that has been devaluated their value in front of other assets, specially Bitcoin. So guys, I say you again, the U.S. Dollar it's not support for much, this will be weakness as central bank create and print out more money incontrolable, for that you need to wake up in this situation on how the central bank of your country it's be benefited throughout of the ignorance that people don't know it how monetary system work. For that, I bought Silver oz to multiply my Bitcoin quantity in Prime XBT. So, you can to buy Silver becuase in the monthly timeframe we confirm that Silver goes to up. But my own reccomendation it's to put a buy order limit. In my case, I put a buy order limit at $24.40 USD with a SL at $20.70 USD and my own target profit will be the maximum price that are the $50 dollars.
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by harisonhbn9718
Overview Market Analysis: Great Britain Pound still bullish!!!In this macroanalysis, we see that Pound still bullish against the U.S. Dollar and then, the inflation of the U.S. Dollar it's another siganl that FED ccontinue unstable the U.S. policy market. That it's a big warning to invest in United States, as the correlation on Bitcoin it's the same of Great Britain Pound that continue bullish. So, we are in the bearish cycle for the U.S Dollar and bullish cycle for the Great Britain Pound. Now, looking in weekly update, I put a new important key trend line support that Pound still bullish. My next target will be the $1.43 USD. That it's so amazing to know it and put a long position in GBP/USD with good lots to make near of 800 pips. But,if you're looking in monthly chart, the trend on Pound it's so bullish and I have a forecast that Pound could reach up toward the $1.62 USD. What do you think about this overview? Could Pound continue agains the rival U.S. Dollar, and America could to have an issue to collapse the economy based in the more inflation?
Long
by harisonhbn9718
1
BTC- PayPal hype could be as big as BTC ETF hypeThe drop to 9.2k-9.5k never happened and the recent consolidation above 10k demonstrated bull's conviction. I expect the incoming shallow pullback and it will be even more bullish if weekly candle can close between 12k-12.5k. First MicroStrategy, then Square and now PayPal. PayPal supports 26 millions merchants and has 300 millions + customer accounts. Its announcement to support crypto payment couldn't come at better time. Moreover, JPMorgan jumped on the bandwagon by making optimistic prediction of BTC's upward price potential this week. Other on-chain indicators also point to the increase of whale hodlers. Furthermore, institutional demand continues to go up while exchange reserve continue to drop. Overall, I think BTC is making a steady progress and we are finally getting one step closer to break through the 3 year consolidation.
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by Libratus
Possible Channel Trend over next 2 weeksI'm in the view that there is still too much uncertainty in the market for there to be a clear breakout in any direction from the obvious triangle pattern others have pointed out. This pair being risk sentiment linked and closely correlated to China would warrant a gradual bullish channel trend in the immediate 2 week term due to the gradual recovery of both AU and China's economies. Event risk is not in upcoming macro releases but rather COVID resurgences, stimulus intervention and policy globally. Also not expecting any major investment inflows after end of financial year in AU and yield curve control (YCC) via RBA open market operations effectively pinning down bond yields. While political tension between Australia and China is a real risk here, the current rhetoric is not close enough to a boiling point to warrant a noticeable shift in sentiment towards a broad off-risk environment for any AUD pairs. Conservative trade strategy is to wait for channel support to be confirmed before longs are entered but a market entry following a minor retracement to around 74.4 can be attempted if intraday position is being managed actively.
Long
by kiwiwalnut