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Macroecomonics

LONG a Falling Interest Rate! - TLTNASDAQ:TLT is an ETF that tracks value of United States Treasury Bonds in the time range of the 20-30-year bonds. With this ETF tracking the bond value it will rise with the decrease in these bond yields as the previous bonds offering higher % rates increase in value. I am bullish on TLT for a few reasons that are summarized in the bullets below - Interest Rates are at their highest levels in around 20 years and history would show that following these peaks in the 5.5%-7% range tends to be a sharp fall of interest rates usually due to a general moderate or severe economic downturn needing economic stimulus with low rates - Along with the peak thesis, in the current economic state of America, it has been generally discussed by Fed Presidents that rate slowdown / rate hike pauses are starting. The FedWatch tool from CMEGroup shows that traders predict the highest rates will not go any higher, and actually start being cut in Early Spring 2024. Due to this data, it is definitely important to realize the risk/reward of this trade on how the downside is minimal with the current economic conditions proving interest rates will likely not move higher, and definitely not more than a last 25bps hike for this rate cycle considering no unprecedented events occur. - Another staple to this bullish thesis is against the Federal Reserve. I strongly believe the Federal Reserve bluffs intentionally during their public conferences and talks. Recalling the inflationary period following COVID, the Fed repeatedly spoke out on this inflation being transitory while CPI rocketed to record highs in decades. I believe they like to not inform the public to the 100% truth and locked room talks. The Fed has came out and said they are quite against publicizing a rate pause officially / begin cutting rates and I believe this is a bluff. As the Fed claims to wait for data, I believe that data is showing, and will continue to show stronger economic struggle from the effects on high-interest rates. As unemployment just ticked up and probably will continue, rates will start to drop fast as soon as the Fed starts. Treasury Yields would likely dump prior to all of this as the anticipation begins to flow into the markets. Lastly, I think the Fed tends to deceive the public to try and not heavily move the markets in a short time. - Overall the data should start to pour in on economic slow down as student loan repayments resume, credit delinquencies continue to rise, housing market cools, unemployment ticking up, and more can feed to a sharp drop in CPI as aggregate US demand settles. The Fed will act on this slowdown and will need to sharply cut interest rates, especially if they wait too long. - Technicals on NASDAQ:TLT also look strong with a major demand zone, a dailydouble bottom and a diagonal trendline supports the price level. TTM_Squeeze also backs up a possible end to the downside. Below 89 area could be a solid Exit area for risk-management. Any Cut in Rates, or anticipation in rate cuts can send TLT flying with bond yields tumbling. Bonus: NASDAQ:TLT also provides a safe hedge to a market collapse or recession. Because market recessions would spark a cut in rates to help fuel a recovery, while stocks may tumble, this ETF would rally on a decline of interest rates to help stimulate a falling economy. Thesis : long Commons or 2025 dated Credit Spreads
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by ZachSap
6
Modeling a shift in SRAS and AD over the past year, I think. I used the U.S PCE YoY as the base, I then overlaid the M1 YoY and Real GDP YoY. I used the beginning of this years as a reference point as that is roughly when the fed began increasing interest rates. As the price level declines demonstrated by a decline in the money supply and PCE YoY declining Real GDP YoY is seen increasing To my understanding this visualizes how SRAS and AD have shifted to the left over the past year
ECONOMICS:USPCEPIACEducation
by MostlyFXcharts
DXY might influence every risky market According to the macro indexes during last months, FED increase interest rate and profit of ten years bond yield. so it's obvious that the inflation still a big problem for US and world economy. next week more inflation indexes would be published and declare that high risk market enter a winter or fiat shows a little weakness. technically DXY is in a trading range for more than a month and if it continue, next week it would be reach the lower band of parallel channel which I declare in the PIC. this parallel channel have been valid since may 2021!!! I believe more probable scenario is that DXY increase until contact with the resistance(97.79) , in such a case stock and crypto market might face another short bounce, then DXY finally shows weakness and decreasing. both stochastic and RSI indicators are in the middle.
TVC:DXYLong
by behzadjl
🚨⛈ SPX: 17-SEP-21 Weekly Review, Forecast & Analysis ⛈🚨Short-Term & Macro Analysis: In this quick video, I cover this week’s price action, the state of technical indicators and provisional forecast for the coming week on both low & high timeframes considering impacts of the macro economic cycle. In case you want to just quickly glance at the chart, see the key notes and snapshot below. You'll find a summary of each major data point from each timeframe assessed. What are your thoughts for the upcoming week? yemala Monthly: Bullish, but minor correction expected - Ichimoku: Tekan above Kijun, riding above bullish green cloud - MACD: Post COVID bullrun breakout finally reversing - RSI: Overbought limits, reversal imminent Weekly: Unclear, likely bullish, if Tekan Sen (blue ichi line) acts as support - Price Action: Closed below and broken yearly support trend - MA: Well above Weekly 50 MA - Ichimoku: Tekan above Kijun, riding above bullish green cloud, Tekan may be tested as support in the coming week - MACD: Significant downward breakout - RSI: Broken crucial support D1: Unclear, likely bearish if Daily 50 MA broken - Price Action: Open and closed below yearly support trend - MA: Tested Daily 50 MA - Ichimoku: Tekan (blue) reversal, closed below Kijun (red), likely heading to test bullish green Ichi cloud - MACD: Clearly downwards, no sign of reversal - RSI: Second test of support, if broken in coming week, will signal weakness in the market H4: Bearish, more down next week - Price Action: Closed below daily support, likely test of previously monthly support - MA: Possible test of H4 200 MA - Ichimoku: Broken support of bullish Ichi cloud, - MACD: Continued negative - RSI: Second test of support, if broken in coming week, will signal weakness in the market, but since overbought, can expect multiple tests H1: Bearish, imminent tests of crucial supports - Price Action: Failed to regain against daily and weekly low, closed below supports - MA: Imminent death cross of H1 50 MA with H1 200 MA - Ichimoku: Significant bearish red Ichi cloud formed, all indicators suggest more down next week
SP:SPXShort
by Yemala
2
DXY: Snap, Crackle PopDXY has definitely snapped to the downside right to the brink of the pattern. Pattern could fail and we'll see it crackle lower or Pop to the upside. 90.1 is the level I'm watching. IF it falls below its over and I'd expect DXY rest of the year in the 80's with SPY jumping to 454. IF DXY pops I expect a broad market correction. What happens to CAPM when there is no risk in Market premium, assets are prices on Beta, or momentum only. Issue with that is that there is no discount and growth is capped by inflation alone. However, no one can beat inflation in the end as it will always out pace asset prices in a "riskless" market. Let me hear your thoughts. Going to be an interesting summer no?
TVC:DXY
by deadsquare214
How I work in Forex: Nzd-Usd analysisIn this article, I show you my way of working in Forex, starting with the choice of the currency pair, passing through all aspects of the operation (position size, maximum loss, etc.), until the analysis of the currency pair and the strategy to be adopted (entry-level, stop-loss and target). Looking at the table of currency pairs I follow, the one that caught my eye was Usd-Nzd. The price is at a level that is not sustainable in the long run for the New Zealand economy. In the last few years, the area 0.72300/0.72800 has been a very important level for Nzd-Usd and above that, the currency pair would be in an area of excess price (actually, already above 0.70000 Nzd-Usd is in an area of excess price). The operation that I am going to open has an optical of the medium-long period, if you are not in a position to hold open the position also for several months, do not replicate it. Let us proceed. The first thing I decide in each of my operations is how much I am willing to lose. My maximum loss is not equal for all the operations, with some more "particular" I have a smaller propensity to the risk. An example is precisely this operation. Although Nzd-Usd belongs to the currency pairs so-called "Majors," the New Zealand dollar is very similar to an "Exotic" currency, therefore with less volume and consequently more volatile and easily speculate. And besides, I already have other long positions on USD. For these reasons, I have decided that my maximum loss on the whole operation is $ 500, and based on the stop-loss, I will decide the position size to open. I now analyse Nzd-Usd trying to understand how it might move in the coming weeks and establish the type of trade and the entry-level. Above, you can see the daily chart with the Nzd-Usd sensitive levels highlighted. New Zealand had less impact from the covid-19 pandemic and this allowed its economy to be less affected. This led to a strong rise in its currency to the 0.75000 area against the US dollar. New Zealand, however, has a strongly export-based economy and a currency so strong, as mentioned earlier, is not sustainable in the long run. The New Zealand dollar also strengthened as many expected the central bank to intervene with a rate hike, "the Committee agreed that the risks to the economic outlook remain balanced, conditional on ongoing stimulatory fiscal and monetary policies. The Committee agreed that, in line with its least regrets framework, it would not remove monetary stimulus until it had confidence that it is sustainably achieving the consumer price inflation and employment objectives. Given that uncertainty remains elevated, gaining this confidence is expected to take considerable time and patience." However, this is currently unlikely, at least in the short term. Also because in recent months the New Zealand economy has slowed down, "Economic activity in New Zealand slowed over the summer months following the earlier rebound in domestic activity. December quarter GDP was weaker than expected and more recent indicators suggest that momentum has reduced. Some members noted that supply chain disruptions could potentially constrain domestic activity in the near term. In addition, business credit growth and investment remain subdued." As for the US, the focus in recent weeks has been on inflation following the entry into force of Biden's economic stimulus plan, "with inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal (2%), the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 per cent for some time so that inflation averages 2 per cent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well-anchored at 2 per cent." In the March "Summary of Economic Projections," the PCE inflation forecast for 2021 rose to 2.4% from 1.8% in December, and the Core PCE inflation forecast rose to 2.1% from 1.8% in December. Inflation is forecast at 2.0% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2022 for both. In the same document, you can see (you can find it on the Federal Reserve's website) that in March compared to December the GDP forecast was raised (to 6.5% in 2021 from 4.2% in December) and the unemployment rate lowered (to 4.5% in 2021 from 5.0% in December). Macroeconomic analysis shows what has already emerged above with New Zealand's data deteriorating in recent months while US data is improving almost steadily. If the vaccination continues apace, the US economy will recover quickly, as the UK economy is doing in Europe. Once the analysis is complete, how do I intend to proceed? I do not want to open the operation at once. The moment is particular and I would not be surprised to see Nzd-Usd go up even 300 pips. So, I decided to open a spy order at 0.72400 to see how the currency pair will react to that level. I will place the primary order, which is larger in size as it is closer to the stop-loss, at 0.73700. For both orders, spy order and primary order, I destine the same maximum loss, which I had decided to be $ 500, so my maximum loss for the two types of orders is $ 250 each. Now with the Value-at-Risk, I calculate the stop-loss and with the stop-loss, I calculate the size of the two orders. To be precise, I use CVaR to calculate the stop-loss (it is all explained in my book on fundamental analysis in forex) and the calculation gives me a stop-loss at 0.75200. I now calculate the two position sizes. Ultimately, I will open a short position of $ 9,000 at 0.72400 (spy order) and a short position of $ 17,000 at 0.73700 (primary order), with a stop-loss at 0.75200. As for the target, I always like to see how the currency pair moves to assess where to take profit. This, somewhat summarised, is how I work in Forex, how I analyse a currency pair and how I organise the whole operation.
Education
by TradingwDavid
2
Home Depot should be in your WatchListThere is a macro narrative underway that is wildly bullish for Home Depot. The fuse being lit here under a MASSIVE bull run evident within the latest WSJ article. Get ready for a flood of improvements and investments in homes. Keep in mind how cash flush consumers are, and how pent up they have been in their homes. The WSJ certainly made the case when they said: "The estimate represents a 52% rise in the nation’s home shortage compared with 2018, the first time Freddie Mac quantified the shortfall." “We should have almost four million more housing units if we had kept up with demand the last few years,” Mr. Khater said. “This is what you get when you underbuild for 10 years.” Housing my friends is about to get red red hot. www.wsj.com Let's also take a peek at flatbed capacity folks. Flatbeds provide capacity for the construction sector and massive commodities within the logistics sector. New truck sales are up ...gulp 424% in march! www.ttnews.com Demand is wild, but who are going to drive all of these trucks with a driver shortage underway at exactly the same time? Load postings (loads shippers need transported) are up +129.9% Y/Y Truck postings (trucks available to haul loads) -6.9% Y/Y -Stats provided by DAT Let's drill in a bit further folks! This upcoming ratio is a bit like saying... the average temperature in North America is 70.7 degrees Fahrenheit, or 21.5 degrees Celsius for our friends across the pond. Not very helpful if you are trying to zero in to the Florida market vs the Alaska market. But regardless this data is stunning as the current load-to-truck ratio for flatbed is over 80 loads per trucks. In some very hot markets it is well over 120 loads per truck. Think about what that means! The average driver has over 80 loads to select from before hauling his freight. This enables him to bid himself much higher. Obviously this cost to manufacturers and distributors or even those providing raw goods in lowlier verticals all can not just shoulder this costs - it must get passed on to consumers. Clearly this will result in further inflation pressure. It is stunning if you think of it that Dr Michael Burry predicted that the inflation pressures would be observed initially within supply chains...and yes he nailed it. Citation of chart displaying Load-to-truck ratio: www.facebook.com There are many ways to monetize the current situation. And I recommend a plethora of strategies to diversify risk. And this includes exposure to transportation equity products, building materials, commodities, construction starts, and yes Home Depot. The final comment I have - and please keep in mind I do not subscribe to political tribalism, I play it monk like focused on how we can be opportunistic in any environment-if Biden passes the infrastructure package again this would lead to a massive supply crunch in many of the areas outlined above. Especially flatbed capacity. Keep in mind flatbed seasonality typically does not kick up until May-June when housing and construction starts are heating up. As always dear traders if you found this content helpful please be sure to like, share, and perhaps tell me what I may be missing in my content here. Final content share that is a MUST READ. Manufacturing PMI is at 64.7% ... So for those unfamiliar with what that means if the PMI index is under 50 we are in a state of contraction, growth mode is evident with numbers above 50. A reading of 64.7% is frankly remarkable. www.ismworld.org Pivot Points Bollingers/EMA/Volume Can you see the trend friends? Home Depot is great as well because keep in mind on days equities sold off in the broader market, they continued to march higher as well. Let the roaring 20's commence! And please be sure to follow me on TradingView as I will let you know any helpful content I can find as we navigate through the rest of this decade. Good fortunes to you dear traders!
NYSE:HDLong
by ZenMode
2
BTP BUND SPREAD - A MACRO INDICATIONThe effects of the spread on the national deficit and public debt are not immediate, but they are seen when the next BTP is issued. If the spread is high when a new BTP is issued, the new bonds will probably adapt to the performance of the secondary market, costing the Government more. A BTP-Bund spread may also affect businesses and households, not just the government coffers. Indeed, a high spread mostly likely translates into higher interest rates. Banks would suffer the consequences, as they would then be forced to pay more to raise funds and would earn less on the government bonds that they own, driving them to charge more for financing and loans.
B
by ayush.aggrwl
The downtrend is coming, not yet!Last week's macroeconomic announcements created support at the price level of 1.1870, which is the lower limit of the downtrend channel. So, from a technical analysis point of view this was almost to be expected. Then looking at the indications of the Stochastic it seems that the upward movement still has a lot of room for development because the index has just come out of the oversold level. In the case that the downtrend that has been created is valid, and it is not a downward corrective move of the main upward trend, a rise of prices up to the resistance point of 1.2070, so that prices cover almost the entire range of the downtrend channel, it is very likely to be verified. In the case, now, that the movement within the downward channel is a correction, the point 1.2070 and the possibility of its breaking is the first indication for the future upward movement.
by UnknownUnicorn214400
XL: Real Revenues, Real Product, My Favorite EV SPAC PlayXL is a maker of hybrid and fully electric engines for trucks and cargo vans. The company sold over 4,000 units in 2020 and are projecting 9,200 this year. They do not however only sell hybrid/electric engines, they also recently got into the charging market. They announced a partnership with UBS arena (NY Islanders stadium) to deploy 1,000 charging stations in the parking ramp. This is a first of it's kind deal in the industry, and I believe this is just the beginning for XL in terms of partnerships with large event venues. Anything tied with EVs and SPACs has been absolute mania recently. The pullback across the board though has given great buying opportunities into well run, real revenue producing companies however. And I strongly believe XL is one of them. Technically looking at it as well, it broke it's $18 support level when the entire market tanked late February. It now is showing signs of a reversal coming of a Tom Demark niner as well as momentum picking up after the company appearing on Mad Money. I believe the stock will quickly get back to it's $18 support level, and eventually make a push back to the $26-28 range. I am using that $26-28 range as a 6-month price target.
XLong
by RobertTheTrader
3
Could It Really Be? DXYSo. With everything going on in the Yield Bonds market, it begs the question of what is to occur in the Stock market. Generally, as money moves away from this market and into T-Bills we can observe a liquidity shortage. With high demand, price pushes high. I believe we can expect a market move downwards to complete our trend move downwards. Major divergence on the 3 Day chart is one excellent indicator that can be observed. All the signs are pointing to a rally. With a rally on DXY, reversals in many areas will be inevitable. I mean, come on. Looking at the overextension of US30, of the stock market as a whole. A correlation can be made between USD and the market's movements. Through and through, we are seeing currencies looking extremely exhausted. A correction is coming. Be cautious in these times of certainty. Nothing can be guaranteed but if one this is observed; history repeats.
TVC:DXY
by A5u5Ra23rH3r0
A Perfect Storm US30So. With everything going on in the Yield Bonds market, it begs the question of what is to occur in the Stock market. A correlation can be made between DXY and the US30 movements. When is to come of this Daily Engulfing candle we have just observed? Nothing can be guaranteed but if one this is observed; history repeats. The last time we saw an engulfing candle such as this was Sept 3, followed by a significant ABC correction. Notice in the DXY analysis that there are EXTREMELY close time and price moves that can be correlated with this US30 analysis. We will have to see how things play out. The Fib Speed Fan is a relevant indicator of price moves through time. With every major reversal point being layed on the chart, we can see an equal and opposite move on the other side of the 1/1 ratio line. There are significant mirroring patterns from the .75, .618, .50; on the upwards correction out of the gulley, into the uptrend, and now to the downward correction. The trendlines have been confirmed. Through and through, we are seeing currencies looking extremely exhausted. A correction is coming. Be cautious in these times of certainty.
OANDA:US30USD
by A5u5Ra23rH3r0
GBPCHF POTENTIAL SCENARIOSGiven the recent market moves and macro economic factors surrounding the GBP, we have outlined two potential scenarios for GBPCHF given the current levels that are in play. The 1.22 level has not been broken since September 2019, if we see a bullish weekly close above the level as well as a retest, we can expect price to move (Long Term) to around the 1.27 region with areas of resistance coming it at 1.24. If price is to respect the 1.22 once again as previously done, we can expect price to push further back down to our 1.19 / 1.18 region once again. The first entry that was taken at 1.18 has been closed partially at 1.22, with currently 40% of the initial position running. (Stop Loss running at +200pips)
by umayrashrafi
2
Copper futures at 9 year highs, FCX SCCO HBMCopper futures at 9 year highs and all time high is around $4.65, FCX is the world's largest publicly traded copper producer. It is following the price of commodity. Demand for copper from renewable sector is growing as new power generation capacity addition renewable energy (China/India). Options - The March 19 $38 calls traded over 11000 times, over 34,000 in Open interest. The march put call ratio is .46. April options put call ratio - .76, probably a pull back at some point after strong move friday.
NYSE:FCXLong
by hockeysniper
1
VWO - Emerging Market Macro Analysis The macro data from this month's Markit PMI's is sending a bit of mixing signals from the countries that VWO has the most exposure to, but I am still optimistic as to the near-future performance of the emerging markets. Before going into the macro analysis, whats the market allocation of this ETF. The 80% market allocation is the following: - China -> 42.5% - Taiwan -> 16.5% - India -> 11% - Brazil -> 5.9% - South Africa -> 4.1% After a quick look at the list above, we can see that China and Taiwan are almost 50% of the market allocation, so it is important to follow their situation closer. China Macro Overview China PMI's are sending mixed signals regarding the growth of Chianese economy, with a possible hint as to slow down in the next few months. The manufacturing report is showing a slow down in growth in the production and new orders. The new export orders are declining again below the 50 level, which indicates a possibility of contraction, there is also an indication of rising costs. And that's likely to reflect in the results of Q2, or even in the Q3. Taiwan Macro Overview In comparison to Chinese PMI's, Taiwanese reports are much more optimistic, with strong growth in the last months. January Manufacturing PMI is reporting growth in Output and New Orders, which are leading indicators in themselves. Employment has increased substantially, which is a good indicator as to the health of the Taiwanese economy in the current situation. In my opinion, the Taiwanese companies will lead the performance in the VWO for the next few months. Indian Macro overview India is another country reporting growth in January if we keep in mind the allocation size in this country in this ETF, it gives an optimistic outlook for its performance. New Orders, Exports and Outputs are rising for another consecutive month. The employment situation is still contracting but at lower levels than before. That may be an indication of possible employment growth soon. The overall outlook for the Indian economy is positive and in conjunction with positive data from Taiwan, that's good news for the emerging markets. Additional Macro overview Brazil, South Africa are other countries in the top 5 of the allocations for this ETF. Their allocation size is reasonably smaller than the countries above so I won't go into much detail. Brazil situation is not very bright, as to the information provided by PMI reports, even that manufacturing showed slight improvements, the services are contracting again. The situation in South Africa seems to expand but at a slow pace, there are still many concerns as the effects of the pandemic on the overall economy. Final Opinion. As we can see from the macro overview of the countries, which are the key components of the market allocation of this ETF, the outlook is mostly positive. Some may be concerned by the mixed data from the Chinese PMIs since China is the biggest player in this ETF, it may affect the performance. However, there is a positive outlook for Taiwan and India. I believe they will compensate for the possible slow down in China, and it'll drive the EM performance for the next few months. Sources: - Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI - Caixin China General Services PMI - IHS Markit Taiwan Manufacturing PMI - IHS Markit India Manufacturing PMI - IHS Markit India Services PMI - IHS Markit Brazil Manufacturing PMI - IHS Markit Brazil Services PMI - IHS Markit South Africa PMI
AMEX:VWOLong
by jaymastero
ETH/USD - KRAKEN - 1WOn the weekly ETH/USD chart; the rise came to a hold last week at the yearly R2 Pivot from 2018. This is a strong resistance to break through. Hard to tell if it's able to reach this years R3 Pivot anytime soon (I highly doubt it). More likely scenario would be a revisit to this years R2 Pivot first. Wave Trend is pretty much in overbought area but it still has a bit of headroom left when looking at the previous ATH red crosses in 2017 and 2018 (red dashed lines). More concerning to me is the Squeeze Momentum Indicator below, which is already above the 2018 high level (purple dashed line). So it's questionable if it has more room to rise higher from here atm as it's in uncharted territory ~ indicator-wise. When/if price drops to this years R1 Pivot it could become more interesting. Because when the R1 holds as strong support I can see it turn into a giant C&H play on the weekly. With the potential to slingshot PA into price discovery as soon as it breaks through the Yearly 2018 R2 Pivot. Overall: The fact that price is already dangling between this years R2 and R3 Pivots so early in this year is something I find quite concerning in this current momentum. But as Duke Ellington's wise words go: "It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing ".
KRAKEN:ETHUSD
by Popcornsupply