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Macroecomonics

Modern Monetary Theory Explained: Will Gold Skyrocket?Our Economic Research Report(Updated monthly)-(important) drive.wps.com Trump’s tariff tax obsession may be somewhat comical, but it is creating substantial weakness in China’s currency. That’s because foreign and domestic investors are moving significant amounts of money out of Chinese risk markets and into dollar-denominated safe havens like T-bonds, gold , and the yen. on the other hand, US services growth slows to the weakest level since 2016. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its non-manufacturing activity index fell to 53.7 from 55.1 the month before. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a reading of 55.5 for July. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector. Growth in the U.S. services sectors decelerated in July to its weakest level in three years as trade worries weighed on business orders and the outlook for the overall economy, a private survey released on Monday showed. Slower growth in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, comes at a time that the U.S.-China trade war has been squeezing manufacturers.(New research will be published tomorrow) Top Hedge fund comment Morgan Stanley: If the trade war escalates, a recession will be here in 9 months Morgan Stanley thinks a global recession will come if the trade war escalates through the U.S. raising tariffs to 25% “on all imports from China for 4-6 months.” “As we view the risk of further escalation as high, the risks to the global outlook are decidedly skewed to the downside,” Morgan Stanley chief economist Chetan Ahya says. China has promised to retaliate to new tariffs that President Donald Trump said will begin on Sept. 1. ADVICE AND RECOMMENDATIONS With gold’s impressive rally this summer, prices might be too “pricey” for some investors, which is why We advise buying cheaper precious metal alternatives like platinum and silver . “Gold has had a great run over the last year, up 17%. It’s been a perfect storm of sorts for gold , especially on the interest-rate front. With long-term interest rates declining globally, gold has been an attractive alternative to debt,” Gold is a great alternative to any kind of risk, including economic instability and geopolitical tensions, But, at these levels, gold is just too expensive. “As an example, the 10-year German Bund now yields -0.44%. Investors now pay to invest in German government debt. The advantage of holding gold is that it is a country and government agnostic. Gold can sometimes be viewed by investors as a hedge against governments that might be fiscally/economically irresponsible,” “Yes, the world has added more negative-yielding debt recently, and more will likely follow. But, $1500 gold , we feel, takes into account all of that and then some. One year ago, just prior to global yields falling, gold was trading closer to $1200,” LaForge wrote. Platinum and silver offer much more advantageous hedge solutions to investors, added the bank. “The two we recommend considering are platinum and silver . Both are historically quite cheap versus gold , and in our opinion, may offer more upside potential should gold keep grinding higher,”. “The price of platinum has mostly traded above the price of gold , but that is not the case today. For those looking for an alternative to gold , we recommend consideration of platinum and silver ,”
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldSilverAnalyst
2
US OIL SHORT TRADEThe price made a nice correction after a strong impulse. its give us a good RR to enter the short trade. _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Traders! if you like my ideas and do take the same trade like i do, please write it in comment so we can manage the trade together. join my free telegram channel link in Bio ___________________________________ Thank you for your support! LamchiuFX
TVC:USOILShort
by LCFXpro
2
US OIL LONG TRADE (2nd attempt)The price made another visit to the demand zone and us another attempt to go LONG. _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Traders! if you like my ideas and do take the same trade like i do, please write it in comment so we can manage the trade together. join my free telegram channel link in Bio ___________________________________ Thank you for your support! LamchiuFX
TVC:USOILLong
by LCFXpro
3
AUDUSD MACROeco + govt bonds. read to understand the chartAiming to support employment growth and to provide economic support RBA cut its cash rate by 25 bps to a low of 1% at the july meeting. The Australian economy grew below trend at 1.8% this was followed by low consumption and income growth. while increased investments in infrastructure is providing a pick up in activity in the resources sector. a pickup in growth in household disposable income is expected to remove the uncertainty involves outlook for low consumption. employment growth is continuing strong while wages growth remains low. mortgage rates are at record lows and the housing market is stabilising. big surplus in trade, while higher petro prices the last couple of month could have supported the growth rate for the H1 of the year. with stabilising housing market, and further rate cuts that will support the economic conditions " credit markets, employment, consumption and so on..", i expect upside moves for the aussie, while slower growth for the US. AU10Y yield have been moving down, which means an increase in buying of government bonds, and therefore increased demand for aussie dollars. Long at spot, for the rest of the year, and looking for hedging opportunity at 1:1
Long
by Fx-AlphaStrats
How A Rise In Initial Jobless Claims Could Trigger A RecessionThis chart aims to delve into the probability of the next U.S. led recession beginning this year. Lets get started. This chart takes the S&P 500 Index (America's main market index) in yellow and compares it to the Initial Jobless Claims Data (direct from the Federal Reserve) in grey. We also take two very standard moving averages of the Initial Jobless Claims data set which are the 50 week moving average and 100 week moving average. What we can see is that as the 50 week moving average crosses over and above the 100 week moving average (Indicated by the vertical red line) this confirms a trend of rising initial jobless claims has begun and a recession is imminent. This moving average crossover preceded the 2000 recession and the 2008 recession and it is getting close to crossing over again now, hence the title of this post "How A Rise In Initial Jobless Claims Could Trigger A Recession". Along With this data I have also shown a common pattern that the S&P 500 Index displays as it is topping out. This is the infamous volatile double top formation which occurred in 2000, 2008 and is happening again now as we speak on a massive scale. Add to that my related article linked below that outlines how the 3 month treasury yield is predicting the next recession and you can begin to see multiple factors lining up all pointing to the same recessionary outcome. Combining all of this information we determine it is likely that the next U.S. led global recession could begin as soon as October this year (2019). A recession of course means two consecutive quarters of negative GDP, so if the first negative quarter is Q4 2019 and the second negative quarter is Q1 2020 then the data required to officially confirm and announce a recession will not be available to the public until the end of Q2 2020. Meaning if the next recession starts in October of 2019 we will not officially know about it until mid 2020. Prediction: The next U.S. led global recession could start as soon as October 2019 and wont be officially acknowledged and announced until mid 2020. This is not financial advice, just general economic analysis.
FRED:ICSA
by Markster
4
Exceptional speculation from mid April '18 onwardsUsing an updated chart of earlier posted opportunity around AUDUSD (AU) I like to highlight and illustrate the exceptional speculation that has been going on since mid April onwards. The first and many incidence of the same speculation has often seen coming in very sudden which indicates a single source instead of graduate forming of buying/selling pressure you see normally when larger long term trends are forming. Only news events cause such sudden incoming interest in the buying or selling of an asset when it's coming from a group, but then there have to be a profound reason for it been in the news and it always dies out within a few hours. Quite often we have seen USD buying surges since mid April not complying with any of these rules on top of that these volumes were sometimes hidden from public pools and planned very timely to exactly block a USD bearish cycle from bringing down the value of USD or a potential opposite interest such as London open. The latter is just too silly to observe, suddenly on Tuesday morning Asia timezone when there are normally low volumes until one hour before London open, there would be a ridiculous sudden surge of GU and EU selling at a time it was never seen before. There is simply also no reasonable explanation for anybody selling GU and EU at that time other to stopping GBP and EUR from being appreciated. Nobody says a word and nobody writes about it since that I have noticed these out of place events. There are some economists speaking in youtube videos but searching for manipulation of USD returns litle results on Google and first few entries are about China manipulating their currency and Google's very nice suggestion list doesn't show a single entry when typing it out into the search field. Well, everybody knows that every single central bank is doing it, all of them. They call it market operations and it published on their websites. Look at the implementation notes published by the FED May this year or read on about RBA market operations published clear in public, just to name two examples but all central banks list it as normal operational tasks as part of their portfolio of services. Yet search seems to return limited results, making everyone believe very few people are interested in this business. Something so important as a ring-network of almighty controllers manipulating the financial market on a daily basis and nobody would be interested. That doesn't glue very well with me, censored it is, big time, for only one reason, this network of market operators have a lot to hide. More than they trying to let the everyone believe with their website publications. The dangers are that like this year the speculators are all making to believe the sudden interest is genuine, just to grow a large group of supporters because the FED know it can't beat macroeconomic cycles. At one the these will overpower the built up speculative forces against the macros over 6 months and that contr force will be stronger than ever seen on the market and speculators will realise that at one point in time and start selling on top of the macro selling pressure. That combined could give us the strongest ever seen sling back down from high up reaching far below it normally would go, the so called overshoot could reach the opposite side of the market at USDJPY 67...
Education
by Deep-Peat-Shark
USDCHF Brexit and ItalySNB have cited multiple times, that they are not afraid of intervening their currency. According to SNB, the CHF is highly valued and there could be something about the talk. But With brexit around the corner + italy budget crises, CHF could be lifted even more. on top of that, some German banks cited that Germany have higher risk of entering a recession. I am betting against a brexit deal, and we could see that brexit will be delayed. + italy not accepting the budget adjustments by the EU and the EU not accepting the italian budget. On the flip side.. There could be some agreements regarding the Italy budget from both sides and Uk´s brexit. which could expose CHF to the downside + SNB intervening at the same time. adding shorts at 1.01516 target around 0.97900
Short
by Fx-AlphaStrats
Is this an opportunity on USD/CAD ?The price has invalidated the uptrend in the very short term, going to break down the level placed at 1.317, that was a static support that should have rebounded the price and continue the long trend. After Powell’s words, investors continued to sell the US dollar, making it weaken against all the majors. The Fed has been clear: at this moment it is difficult to think about further increases in interest rates, as the US economy is responding well at these levels (2.25 / 2.50%). At least for the entire first half of 2019 it will be difficult for him to return to his steps. The market will be hostile to a strengthening of the US currency. This pair is particularly uncertain because the Bank of Canada also does not intend to change its monetary policy, so it is very likely that it will continue to proceed sideways for the next few months in the channel between the support at 1,298 and resistance at 1.33. It is advisable to remain flat until the fundamentals change or one of the two levels mentioned above is broken. It should be noted that on a daily tf, the price has reached the dynamic support identified by the EMA200, which seems to have held: it could be a good opportunity to enter the market from here with target the level of minor importance placed at 1.326 with a “buy“ order.
by BFCMInvest
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 313)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: P < S MA < M MA < L MA = fully bearish Patterns: Phase 7 of hyperwave | Bear channel Horizontals: Kind of in no mans land after closing below $3,500. Next area of support is $3,200 Trendline: Bear Channel Parabolic SAR: $3,527 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 2.72% spread | Tightening spread as we near support is bearish and I will be watching for that to flip back to Contango. BTCUSDSHORTS: Higher lows and higher highs. Making another higher high while capitulating makes a lot of sense. Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0008% TD’ Sequential: R5 Ichimoku Cloud: Tenkan-Sen continues to act as strong resistance Relative Strength Index: Lower lows and lower highs Average Directional Index: ADX crossing 20 with -DI > +DI indicating the potential start of a new bear trend. Price Action: 24h: -2.9% | 2w: -6.1% | 1m: -9.4% Bollinger Bands: Close below bottom band and now the BB’s are no longer squeezing. Stochastic Oscillator: Watching for D, 3D and Weekly buy signal. Summary: I am finding the XAU:BTC ratio very interesting right now. Throughout the first 11 months of the 2018 bear market BTC barely lost value against gold and the ratio remained below 0.2 during that time. However there was a sudden and drastic change that occured in November. Gold found a bottom and Bitcoin continued to sell off. The ratio currently sits at 0.387 and it is threatening to retest 0.5. This is alarming and has me wondering about the possible fundamentals behind the shift. Regardless the technicals indicate that Gold is on the verge of another massive bull run while BTC still appears to have a way to go before finding a bottom. Will be very interesting to see how this develops. From here I am expecting a retest of $3,200 and I think there is > 50% chance that it holds as support and provides a strong bounce to $5,200 - $5,800. If that happens it would form a Bulkowski Big W on the weekly chart. However if the market re enters Contango while retesting $3,200 then I will become bearish and will look for possible short entries.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
Respecting the bearish channel in SPX - SHORTS THROUGH 2685Trade set up: Our bias leans towards a short in the SPX, where we are looking for a break below the recent low of 2685 to enter the position. Upon this development, we would set a stop loss at 2725 and our take profit set at 2603. This profit target is subject to change and dependent on the price action, as a break of 2603 would hold huge bearish implications. We will update this idea as it plays out. Why we like it: Technically the trade is pointing to a solid short opportunity – with the stochastic momentum heading lower, and short-term price analysis showing a series of lower lows and highs. The 5-day EMA has acted as dynamic resistance and contained the rallies of late. We also note the recent 8% relief rally reversed off the 61.8% Fib level. Our view is to wait for a break of the 30 October high of 2685, as this would throw a probability of an extension of the bearish channel and suggest a move into the neckline of the recent double top at 2603. Disclaimer. Trading leveraged products carries a high level of risk and may result in you losing substantially more than your initial investment. Pepperstone Group Limited is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (AFSL 414530). Pepperstone Limited is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (FRN684312). This information not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation
SP:SPX
by Pepperstone
1
UJ Continuous IdeaI'm shorting UJ at the moment due to the 3 phases its rised from July low of 104.50 area, turning point turned out to be the 114.50 area as we predicted.. A very strong Supply Zone, Suppliers looking for sellers, and we got exactly what we wanted.. Decent Bat/Butterfly Harmonic Pattern, Can be seen as either one. RSI Helping us locate a Psychological Potential Reversal Zone... Always talk about PRZ's having good Price Action.. This one obviously gave us a turn around sign of RailRoads To the TOP.. and then to top it off to confirm Low buying power in the area, we have a really, really, Nice Inverted Bearish Hammer. Very Great detail in where the institution's might want to move UJ... Solid Sell in my Books, Wait for another retracement, and boom you're in! Thanks Ozark Trader.
Short
by TheOzarkTrader
EURUSD Weekly forecast, Fundamental and technical.Technical: On the Daily chart we have Intermediate, minor and minute waves. followed by Intermediate correctional waves. we also had a break to the downside from the symmetric triangle, where the support/resistance haven't been tested yet. The current price level/support is a support from 2004 and therefore have been tested many times and makes it a strong support/resistance area. The price have had a strong upwards momentum, and this previously fall could be seen as a retracement, which is also correlating with the correctional intermediate waves. The price action and the waves are in harmony with fibonacci levels. we also have a hidden bullish divergence, (marked with red rings in the chart and the RSI) Overall i see the EUR/USD bullish, with the technical and the fundamental taken in mind, i see that the data from the us is holding its pace, where the strong momentum of strong data, is set on a test in the coming period. if the price breaks current levels, i see a trend reversal to bearish, and the price could make some drastically falls. _________ a long position can be taken now, and there is opportunity for a tight SL around 1.18900. TP will be at correctional wave (B) between 1.22040 and 1.23060. which is 0.886 on fibonacci levels and the support/resistance line in the symmetric triangle. (If the price breaks the 1.19090 ish the price could go further down to 1.17200, before a retracement will occur) ______________________ A short position is possible in the levels between 1.22040 and 1.23060. ( look for entries between this levels, see the chart in smaller time frames to confirm a short entry) TP will be at around 1.17200 also the ending of the intermediate correctional wave (B) ( watch closely the (C) wave, as the levels can break for further upside) _________ Fundamentals: Monday the 7 May: German factories orders m/m Are expected to be 0,5% from 0,3% where last years numbers where 1.0% and from 2016 the numbers where 1.9% PMI for retail m/m in the Euro zone are also given where previously data was at 50,1. Last years numbers where 52,7. and from 2016 the numbers where 47.9 From the us we have 3 FOMC Members speaking and numbers from Consumer credit. Tuesday 8 May: German industrial production which is expected to rise 2.4% from -1,6% to 0.8%. where last years numbers where -0,4% and -1.3% in 2016 so definitely a rise YoY. From US we have Fed chair Powell speaking with the conference title "Monetary Policy Influences on Global Financial Conditions and International Capital Flows" We also have Jolts job opening which is expected to be 0,03m higher than previously, from 6.02m to 6.05m Wednesday 9 May: We have French industrial production numbers, Italian retail sales and and German 10Y bond auction. From the US we have PPI m/m which is expected to fall 0.1% from 0,3% to 0,2% where 2017 numbers where 0,5% and 2016 numbers where -0,4%. Wholesales inventories is expected to rise from 0,5% to 0,6%. the same day we will have the crude oil inventories, Thursday 10 May: French and German bank holiday. that can create low volatility on the dax. Economic bulletin is due, and Italian industrial production m/m. From US we have CPI m/m which is expected to rise from -0,1% to 0.3% where last years numbers where 0,2% and from 2016 the numbers where 0,4%. Core CPI m/m is also due the same day where the numbers are expected to be at a steady level of 0,2% where last years numbers where 0,1% and from 2016 0,2%. Unemployment claims are also due to rise from 211k to 219k Friday May 11: Draghi is speaking. from the US we have Prelim consumer sentiment. the numbers are expected to fall from 98.8 to 98.4.
Long
by Fx-AlphaStrats
USDCAD Technical and fundamental analysis.The price have been in a uptrend previously, that is followed up by correctional waves. The correctional waves have been in a strong downwards momentum with low momentum for the consolidation areas followed up by a strong retracement momentum. the price have resistance at 1.28025. while a break can drive the price to 1.28670 which is also 0.707 on fibonacci drawn from the red 0 to ((v)) If the price does not break the 1.28025 level we could se a confirmation on the bearish correctional trend, where 1.24472 and 1.22998 should be closely watched. We also have a bearish hidden divergence within the price chart and RSI. ______ Fundamental. Monday April 23: in the US we have Chicago fed national activity index (inflation pressure) which is expected to be 0,47 less at 0.41 where previously data showed 0.88. We also have market Service, composite and manufactoring PMI numbers which is expected to hold a steady level from last data release. where composite PMI is expected to be 55.3 from last data at 54.2. existing home sales (MoM) is also expected to hold a steady level where consensus is 5.55M from last numbers at 5.54M and last yeas numbers for Marts where at 5.48M. Numbers from Canada are very Thin, and no important numbers are coming out monday. Tuesday April 24: We have Housing price index (MoM) (Feb) for US. The index is expected to be 0.3% lower than previously from 0.8% and therefore consensus at 0.5%. Last years numbers where at 0.4%. S&P Case Shiller Home price indices (feb) is also released where consensus is 6.2% from last numbers at 6.4% and last years numbers at 5.6%. Thursday April 26: Continuing jobless claims from the US is released where it previously was at 1.863M, and a consensus at 1.835M for April13. We also have durable goods order for Marts which is expected to be 2.1% less than previously at 3.1% and therefor a consensus at 1.0%. last years numbers showed 1.7% for Marts. Friday April 27: GDP Price index (Q1) is released by US. where the previously numbers was 2.3% and have a consensus of 2.0%. and last years numbers at 2.2%. GDP Annualized (Q1) is also released where the previous numbers where at 2.9% with a consensus of 2.3% and last years numbers 0.7%. Core Personal consumption expenditures (QoQ) (Q1) will also be closely watched, where consensus is 1.5% down with 0.4% from last numbers at 1.9%. ______ We have for a long trade. 1. Break of the 1.28025 level could drive the prices higher, to 1.28670. 2. Easing Trade war tensions. 3. Decrease in oil-prices. 4. good data from US. ____ Short trade. 1. ending of impulsive waves and entered correctional area. 2. hidden bearish divergence. 3. Consensus of bad date from US 4. Price near resistance area. 5. dumping of US currencies from countries. 6. Geopolitical risks. 7. increasing oil prices, as a consequence of geopolitical tensions.
Short
by Fx-AlphaStrats
2
NZDJPY Updated version, fundamental and technical.UPDATED VERSION OF THE CHART FROM APRIL 15. there have been a strong gain in the NZDJPY last couple of weeks and i therefor see that the trend have turned from a longterm bearish trend to a bullish trend. i am awaiting further confirmation before a long entry is placed. The confirmation levels will be 77.044. if the price breaks this level, we could see the price testing the last low at 75.625 While a break of 78.300 can support further upside to the 80.020 level and a break of this level will drive the price back to between 80.989 and 81.608 We also have a hidden bullish divergence (marked with yellow rings) in the RSI and the price chart. _______ Fundamental. From April 23 to April 30 Monday april 23: All industrial activity index for Japan (feb). which is expected to be 1,7% higher than previously and 1,4% higher than last years numbers for feb. (This could drive the price down to 77.044) Tuesday April 24: CPI (YOY) 1Q for australia which is expected to be 0.1% higher. where the (QoQ) CPI data is expected to be 0,1% les than last years quarter. while the Trimmed mean CPI is expected to be 0,1% higher than last year quarter. Keep in notice that this is high volatile numbers and good numbers can drive the price up, and therefore break the 78.304 level Thursday April 26: import and export price index is given for Australia. the numbers are expected to be much lower than last months data. Where the export price index was previously 2.8% is expected to be -6,5% Friday April 27: We have Imports and exports (Marts) for New-Zealand. Tokyo CPI ex fresh foods (YoY) (April) is expected to hold the level from last, at 0,8% Where last years numbers was -0,3% and -0,4% Tokyo CPI is expected to be 0,2% higher than last numbers. We will also be given the numbers for Unemployment rate and job/applicant rate for Japan which is also expected to hold a steady level from last at 2.5%. while last years Marts numbers was 3% and 2.8%. Large retailers sales for japan is also released and is expected to be -0,9% lower than previously at 0,6% Friday April 27 we also have Interest rate decision which is expected to hold its levels at -0,1% BOJ outlook report (Q1) is also released following a Policy statement. _____ We have for a long trade: 1. hidden bullish divergence. 2. Correctional minute waves 3. broadening ascending wedge. 4. Higher high, higher low. 5. Resistance at 77.044 with fibonacci levels. 6. High volatile data from japan, that can drive the prices up where interest rate decision is closely watched. ______ Short trade. 1. if Break of the 77.044 level 2. Bad numbers from New-Zealand and australia, also trade war tensions between China and US.
Long
by Fx-AlphaStrats
Lets Talk About The Bloody Euro Shall We ? ......The beginning of QE saw the Euro stabilize and once the stimulatory effects of lower oil prices worked its way through the Eurozone we saw growth start to come back and the Eurozone bounce back in exports due to a weaker currency. Inflation in the Eurozone picked up and the growth spurt continued through 2017. QE and the stimulatory effects of low interest rates nailed German bund yields to the floor however this stimulation resulted in the appreciation of the Euro; the wheels of fortune had changed and the Euro was rebounding. Historically, the German 10 year US 10 year yield spread and the Euro have been correlated to each other. However recently it would appear that there has been a divergence in their relationship..... read more for free at www.patreon.com
Short
by couragepharm
NZDJPY Technical and fundamental The price is forming an anti new cypher, with fibonacci drawn from 0 to 1 Where a less risky entry will be at 80.430 which is also 1.618 on fibonacci. The price is also performing a 5 wave sequence where the Minute have enden and startet the correctional waves with Minuette and a W,X,Y,X,Z correction inside an ascending broadening wedge. A correction is in place for the Minute waves where 78.532 and 77.982 are support levels which is also ((x)) and (iv) waves 77.982 is 0.78 on fibonacci where 78.532 is 1.0 on fibonacci. If you draw fibonacci from ((iii)) to ((0)) the 80.430 level is also 0.786 on fibonacci drawn from that levels. ------- We have a lot of important macroeconomic data that can effect the price fluctuation. Tuesday economic numbers from china is coming out and Australia, New Zealand also. Thursday we also have a lot of volatile data coming out from australia and NZ Good numbers are expected both Tuesday and Thursday, which can drive the prices higher. while not so favorable numbers from china can drive the prices down eminently. This can support the retracement to 78.532 and 77.982. before further upside. Next week from 23 April to 27 April we also have high volatile numbers coming out with BOJ to release interest rate statement.
Short
by Fx-AlphaStrats
1
Gold Weekly outlook, Fundamental and technical analysisIf the price breaks 1329.33 area. we could see futter gains to 1340.64 If the price breaks the 1340 level area. 1353.90 level will be a good TP. which also are the resistance line in the trend channel. If the trend channel is broken we could see further gains to 1357.96 and above. (look at my monthly chart of gold 0.09% i postet 8 February.) We have some economic data, where we have PMI and manufacturing order Friday April 6, we have average hourly earnings which have a consensus of 0,1% higher than previously. Non Farm payroll consensus are 115k lev than previously. Previously: 313K. CPI 0.16% ex food and energy (YoY) will come out Wednesday April 11. where no consensus is made. I have my own consensus which is 1.8% (1,775) i am basing it on previously data, from 2010 until now. and calculated the average percentage for the given month.... _____ Konklusion: The price is in a trend channel, and have formed a daily morning star candle. which could trigger a bull run up towards 1340.50 level if the price don't break this area, a retracement back to 1334.92 should be watched. We are also in a very volatile market right now, where we have trade barriers implication/ trade war USA Vs. China. And selloff in the tech sector. this bring investors to the save haven ( Gold 0.09% ) and could drive prices higher the coming month and year. also this analysis is supporting my monthly chart from February 8 i postet her. ___ We have For long setup 1. 2 Trend channels, where the green channels support line have ben hit 2. a morning star have formed, after hiring the support line of the green trend channel. 3. Economical data, and uncertainty in the market right now, that can drive the prices higher. 4. a triangle on the monthly chart ( look back to feb 8 on my profile with posted charts.) 5. A weekly trend channel, ( the Orange channel) ( i will post this later on.) For Short setup. 1. if break of the green trend channel. 2. if failed break of the 1329.27 3. if failed break of the 1340 level 4. if failed break of the blue trend channel.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Fx-AlphaStrats
EURGBP 2 Week view. Fundamental and technical. If the price holds below the 0.88221 We could se further downside. Where the supportline in the trend channel will be the bottom While a break of the 0.88221 level Could trigger a run for the 0.88695 area. Before further downside. If the price breaks 0.88714 level . The resistance line in the trend channel will be the top at 0.89702. This level should be watched carefully, as the descending trend channel after a uptrend that started 2015/07 can be a midterm consolidation channel before further upside. If the price does not break the 0.87922 level Price might be heading to the support line of the trend channel where 0.86473 area will be the bottom ____ Fundamental: We also have a lot of macroeconomic data that is coming out the next 2 weeks, where the inflation reports ( Consumer price index Core) are in focus. The CPI - Core data have a 0,1% lower consensus than previously. this could help to support the analysis for a short setup, with break of the 0.87448 level, that could trigger a run to the bottom of the trend channel at 0.86473 We also have PMI numbers coming out for EURO zone, Germany and Spain. where the numbers have a consensus of stable data, that are equal to the previously data. while Spain's consensus for Service PMI have a consensus of being 1.3 point lower, than previously. Plus we have ECB Monetary policy meeting Thursday the 5 April. Also we have some macroeconomic data coming out for Great Britain, where PMI numbers have a consensus of being lower than previously. _______ Konklusion. While the EURGBP have had a strong selloff start March, we saw the price retrace a few pipes, and bulls tried to break the 0.88 level. this was not a succes and the price bounced back to the 0.87361 level, before moving up to 0.87897 and making a daily evening star. the price have already touched the support line in the trend channel, and is failed to break the 0,88 level for now. this could mean that the price is headed back for the support line before further upside. also we have macroeconomics data, that can drive the price in a range period. To support the break of the levels that are described previously, we need to look for the data, that Great Britain are realising the next 2 coming weeks, where lower PMI numbers can drive the EURGBP prices higher and break the levels as described before. _____ We have. For a long position 1. Trend channel, where prices are trying to move higher. 2. Bullish divergence. 3. Macroeconomia data For a Short position. 1. Daily evening star. 2. Fail of breaking the 0.88 level. ( important support / resistance) 3. Macroeconomic data
Short
by Fx-AlphaStrats