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Macroeconomics

Light Crude Oil Futures: Bulls vs. Bears – Big Moves ComingAlright, trading fam, let me set the scene. We’re sitting at $69.40 right now, and the market is coiling like a wave that’s either going to barrel or wipe out everyone trying to ride it. This is one of those setups that makes you lean in because, whichever way it goes, it’s going to be a ride. You ready? Bearish Path – Things Could Get Real Slippery If the price slips below $62.30, it could open up a steep drop to as low as $17.12. Yeah, that’s a long way down. It’s like paddling into the wrong break and realizing there’s no way out without eating sand. If the bears manage to break that key support, all bets are off. Think demand drops, rising inventories, or a stronger dollar that sends oil spiraling lower. Traders who’ve been short are already eyeing this level—if it breaks, they’ll be riding that wave all the way down. Bullish Path – Eyes on the Double Top But here’s the flip side: if the bulls show up and break through $89.10, we’re talking about a potential double top formation. And if that double top gives way? It’s all gas, no brakes, with $129.25 in sight. It’ll take some momentum to push through—maybe supply cuts or geopolitical tensions—but if the bulls catch that wave, it could be a smooth ride to higher levels. What’s the Move? Right now, it’s all about staying patient and reading the flow. If $62.30 holds, you know the bulls still have some fight in them. But if they lose that level, the bears are going to have a field day. On the other hand, if the bulls break through $89.10, it’s game on to higher highs. This is one of those trades where the chart is giving us clear levels, and now it’s just a matter of who takes the wheel. If this breakdown gave you some clarity, follow, share, and pass it along to anyone else riding these markets. Let’s keep an eye on these levels and catch the right wave when it comes. Mindbloome Trader
NYMEX:CL1!
by Mindbloome-Trading
Will the revealed labor data continue to support USDJPY?Macro theme: - The latest Sep NFP, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings have all surpassed market expectations. As a result, the CME FedWatch Tool shows that the 32% probability of a 0.50% rate cut in November has been eliminated, shifting the odds toward a likely rate freeze instead. - Japan's newly appointed economic minister expressed support for further interest rate hikes as long as they do not destabilize the economy or markets, signalling confidence in the BoJ's approach. - The yen's outlook remains uncertain, influenced by the robust US labor market and ambiguity surrounding the BoJ's potential rate hikes. Technical theme: - USDJPY quickly recovered from the previous downtrend and closed above both EMAs, indicating a solid upward momentum. - If USDJPY extends its gain to close above 149.25, USDJPY may retest the resistance around 152.00. - On the contrary, a failure to close above 149.25 may prompt a temporary correction within 147.30-149.25 until an apparent breakout occurs. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by DatTong
Global Liquidity Index Against BTCHeres the global liquidity index mapped against BTC and its past cycle data for reference. Im sure you can spot the positive correlation it has.... When global liquidity increases, risk on assets such as BTC increase due to an influx of new liquidity in money markets. We have been consolidating for 2 years in the global liquidity index in an ascending triangle. I am expecting it to push up, break out, retest similar to the prior cycle fractal and continue higher, in turn pushing money markets including BTC into ATHs
Long
by marshyyy
$EUIRYY -CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY (Eurozone Inflation Data; September/2024) source: EUROSTAT - Annual inflation rate in the Eurozone fell to 1.8% in September 2024, the lowest since April 2021, compared to 2.2% in August and forecasts of 1.9%, preliminary estimates showed. Inflation is now below the ECB target of 2%. Prices fell much more for energy (-6% vs -3%) and inflation slowed for services (4% vs 4.1%) while prices for food, alcohol and tobacco increased slightly more (2.4% vs 2.3%). Meanwhile, core inflation rate also eased to 2.7% from 2.8%. Among the bloc's largest economies, inflation slowed in Germany (1.8% vs 2%), France (1.5% vs 2.2%), Italy (0.8% vs 1.2%), Spain (1.7% vs 2.4%). The ECB expects inflation to rise again in the latter part of 2024, partly because previous sharp falls in energy prices will drop out of the annual rates. Inflation should then decline towards 2% over the second half of 2025.
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
IMPORTANT Macroeconomics: What is the trade balance?IMPORTANT Macroeconomics: What is the trade balance? The trade balance is an important economic indicator that can have a significant influence on the stock markets. Here is a simple explanation of this concept and its potential impact: What is the trade balance? The trade balance represents the difference between the value of a country's exports and imports over a given period. In other words: - If a country exports more than it imports, its trade balance is in surplus (positive). - If a country imports more than it exports, its trade balance is in deficit (negative). Impact on the stock markets The influence of the trade balance on the stock markets can vary depending on whether it is in surplus or deficit: Trade balance surplus A trade surplus can generally have a positive impact on the stock markets: - It indicates strong competitiveness of domestic companies in international markets. - It can strengthen the value of the national currency, which can attract foreign investors. -Exporting companies may see their shares increase in value. Trade deficit A trade deficit can have a negative impact on stock markets: -It can indicate a weakness in the domestic economy or a loss of competitiveness. -It can weaken the domestic currency, which can discourage foreign investors. -The shares of companies dependent on imports may be negatively affected. Important nuances It is crucial to note that the impact of the trade balance on stock markets is not always direct or predictable: -Overall economic context: Other economic factors can attenuate or amplify the effect of the trade balance. -Investor perception: The reaction of the markets often depends on how investors interpret the trade balance figures in relation to their expectations. -Specific sectors: Some sectors may be more affected than others by changes in the trade balance. In conclusion, although the trade balance is an important indicator, its influence on stock markets must be seen in the broader context of the economy and investor sentiment.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
Will the escalation of the Middle East tension boost the dollar Macro theme: - The dollar strengthened after Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a more hawkish tone last week, scaling back traders' expectations of another 0.50% rate cut at the next meeting. - The safe-haven demand following the possibility of Middle East escalation boosted the dollar. - The US Aug JOLTS data showed 329,000 more jobs, indicating a more robust labor market than anticipated. Technical theme: - From the 4-hour chart, DXY broke its Wedge pattern and closed above both EMAs with the golden cross. This indicates a potential recovery from its previous sideways-down trend. - If DXY breaks above 101.33, the index may strengthen to retest 101.80 resistance confluences with its descending trendline. - On the contrary, DXY may retest 100.90-101.00 before upward movement. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
TVC:DXYLong
by DatTong
Nvidia Go Bye Bye | Short or Take Profits Whenever news commentators feel the need to interview a CEO, and hail the CEO as some kind of benevolent "hero of the people", that is a pretty good indicator that something is awry. The same applies for rampant social media hype. At the end of the day, the chart & the macro backdrop tell the real story. NASDAQ:NVDA will collapse from here. Don't bother trying to buy any time soon, you will only be hurting yourself; this thing, along with the broader market has some significant adjusting (downward) to work through.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by ChiefMacro
Watch out as EURGBP net short positioning is reversing quicklyLeveraged money net positioning is reversing from extreme short levels in EURGBP futures. We do acknowledge the UK's recent positive political momentum amid political turbulence in the EU, however we believe the effect is in the price. On top of that, our fundamental macro model is slightly bullish EURGBP, certainly not indicating a further drop from these levels. This might indicate a rally in EURGBP towards 0.86 after a recent 2 standard deviation selloff.
Long
by bearwhispering
Will the theme of weak demand and oversupply dampen oil prospectMacro theme: - Oil prices have declined since last week as investors expect an OPEC+ supply increase in Oct and a potential deal in Libya to resume production, possibly adding over 500,000 barrels per day. - Weak economic data from China, including Tue's ISM Manufacturing PMI, highlighted the country's sluggish recovery, fuelling calls for more stimulus. - Concerns over China's weak demand and the prospect of increased supply are likely to keep oil prices under pressure in the short term. Technical theme: - USOIL tested EMAs' area confluence with 77.00 resistance before breaking below 71.50 support to maintain a bearish structure. - If USOIL maintains below the 71.50 level, the price may continue to decline to test 67.80 support. - On the contrary, if USOIL can close above 71.50, the price may retrace to retest its EMA21 along with the upper bound of its descending channel.
FX:USOILSPOTShort
by DatTong
Possible forecast for BTC (Long-Term Movement)Just simply using fractals of BTC's own movements to map out what looks like a good chance of happening over the next 6 years. Crash in 2030 allowing for a new cycle of investors to jump in? Teasing between 87K and 13K allowing for high volatility and short/long sweeps. Provides room and time for the web3 and alt-coin market to gain momentum, usage, and volume. We will see! *NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE | FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY The market is impossible to predict. Anything can happen in the next 5 - 6 years. This is the most level-headed and realistic forecast IMO. What do y'all think? :) Comment your thoughts!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by wavehellofriend
1
The case for investing in ChinaThe case for investing in China I have had discussions on this platform about my investments in China, the overwhelming response I get is negative. In this article I would like to try and provide an objective, data focused case to invest in China. In a soon coming article I will look at the opposite position and the potential risks of investing in China. Less competition The first reason to consider investments in China is that there are less people searching there, and as a result more opportunities. Approximately 10%-15% of Chinese citizens own or invest in stocks. With so few people even looking at the Chinese market the amount of stocks trading below fair value is greater than that in my home country of the United States. Valuations The idea that there are more opportunities is reflected in the average valuation of Chinese equities. A metric I like to use for broad valuations is the CAPE ratio. It can be understood as the P/E ratio using 10 years of earnings. This ratio is used in an attempt to disregard cyclical earnings changes. worldpopulationreview.com The above link is the current CAPE ratios of countries around the world based on the most recent available data. At the current date 08/23/2024 China has a CAPE ratio of 13. This is compared with a CAPE ratio of 28 in the United States. In the following article I often refer to is data showing the average returns when investing at different CAPE ratios. In short the data shows that there is a substantial correlation between valuations and subsequent investment returns. www.lynalden.com Economic Data Now there are many things to discuss in this section so I will do my best to keep it brief and to the main points on why I invest in China. Personal Savings Rate : China's personal savings rate averages around 40%. This is in contrast to the United States at 3.5% consistently. Balance of Trade: Since the year 2000 China has maintained large trade surpluses as a result of their massive manufacturing output (30% of global manufacturing capacity). This is a result of their hybrid state and market run economy. China's protectionist industrial policy allowed them to develop their own local industry offering the only real competitors to Silicon Valley tech firms. In contrast the United States has had a trade deficit since the 1980's forcing us to de-industrialize and in return create a fictionalized economy based on debt and speculation. The US system requires constant inflows of capital to maintain it's currency and economic supremacy. These are the two data points I would point to to get an idea of why China has overtaken the US as the worlds largest economy in terms of purchasing power parity (their local currency) as well as the two points I bring up the most. I hope I have given a different perspective of the Chinese economy. Stay tuned for the bearish case of investing in China, and have a great day!
SSE:000001Long
by sihen999
ETH - Macro Overview WATHOUT !!!Macro outlook remains BULLISH Previous report we mentioned RSI which broke bearish… It has now reached the 50 retrace which should act as support. Of course it could go lower but as long as we maintain RSI above 50 it's all good. For now, the price broke bearishly. It is crucial to reclaim back above $2,800 for further upside. If $2,800 acts as resistance then we could easily create a trading range from $2,800-$2,000 and dip as low as $1,600 and still be completely bullish (this will be the ONCE IN A LIFETIME LONG opportunity). Any trades to be made right now? NO, price looks like it wants to revisit $2,000 again. There are no clear trading setups right now. We’ll rather stay on the sidelines for now and jump in once we see more confluence.
BINANCE:ETHUSD
by ZelfTrade
Macroeconomic History Tells Us Rough Times Are AheadIn 2023, I did a write up on TradingView about how there is a positive correlation between interest rates and equities, meaning that equites tend to decrease when interest rates decrease. However, correlation does not equal causation. The real correlation is between poor economic data and the stock market, where the poor economic data spurs interest rate cuts and causes a fall in equities. The recent surprisingly bad July jobs report jolted the markets, and reasonably so. The Fed decided to hold interest rates steady in July, causing some to think that they may be behind the curve. Not to mention the Sahm Rule flashed positive; an economic observation that has never been wrong in being a precursor to a recession. fred.stlouisfed.org I am of the party that the Fed is behind the curve In the past, Jerome Powell has stated that he doesn't expect a "severe" recession, and that there could be a "softish" landing, hinting at the difficulties that the Fed faced in preventing a recession altogether. I believe that the stock market will continue to fall, mixed with large rallies (which will make buying the bottom difficult), and I think this will play out for many months. So what's my plan? I sold my LEAPS before the poor jobs market data was released, saving my bacon to be honest. I sold my HOOD profits as well, as I had made a 100% return. I then took both and dumped the funds into QQQ. I do not hold cash in case I am wrong. I would rather be wrong and invested than wrong and sitting on cash. I plan on waiting until the Q's drop another 20% or so before buying LEAPS. Typically, I advise only to put 10% into LEAPS, but this could be a rare opportunity where risk on could pay of in a big way. When I do decide to jump in, I will buy LEAPS with expirations two years out. I want to give them the longest time frame possible because I know I won't be able to time the bottom perfectly. The real risk is waiting too long Wait too long, and I miss a big opportunity. However, being exposed to equities, I'll still ride the wave up. If I'm wrong altogether, I'm still invested in equities and will ride the wave up. I will still be somewhat hesitant to invest into LEAPS through this rate cutting cycle considering history warns against leveraging into QE. Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk. InTheMoney
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by InTheMoneyAdam
2
Is This the Start of a Recession? Why You Shouldn’t PanicMarkets have been selling off amid the latest fears of a recession, with the NASDAQ dropping over 10% and Bitcoin dropping over 20% in just a matter of days. Last Friday’s unemployment report further affirmed investors’ sentiment, exceeding expectations by 0.2% and sparking one of the biggest rotations of capital since the COVID crash. Investors are gearing up for tough times by flocking to bonds and panic-selling risky assets, but has a recession really begun? Should you panic? Understanding the Economic Data Recent unemployment numbers have triggered the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator, created by Claudia Sahm in 2019 to identify recessions as they start. This indicator is triggered when the three-month simple moving average (SMA) of the US unemployment rate rises by 0.5% above the lowest rate observed over the past year. Despite its growing popularity, it’s important to note that this tool has never actually identified any recessions in real time, except for the 2020 recession. In contrast, more established indicators like the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities, developed by Marcelle Chauvet and James Hamilton in 1998, have not indicated that the economy is currently in a recession. Unlike the Sahm Rule, this nearly 26-year-old tool, which relies on complex calculations and various datasets, accurately identified the 2001 and 2008 recessions in real time. Moreover, recessions in the US typically occur when the US Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is on a downward trend, which hasn’t happened yet. This further suggests that other indicators besides the unemployment rate aren’t currently showing signs of concern. Even though the unemployment rate has risen sharply, other leading unemployment indicators, such as initial claims and continued claims, remain at historically low levels. Typically, these leading indicators rise sharply before a substantial increase in the unemployment rate, not the other way around. With the market pricing in substantial rate cuts following the unemployment numbers, yields have dropped, increasing the spread between the short and long ends of the yield curve. Historically, recessions haven’t usually unfolded during inverted yield curves. Additionally, expected looser monetary policy from the Fed combined with surprisingly tighter monetary policy from the BOJ pushed the DXY substantially lower. This resulted in a breakout in global liquidity, which is inversely correlated with the DXY and serves as a helpful indicator of future trends in risk assets. Understanding the Market Trends While the real economy hints that we are likely not currently in a recession, it’s crucial to examine the charts to better understand the downside risks and how to position oneself in order to stay on the right side of market risk. The spike in the VIX and the put-to-call ratio on Monday indicated extremely fearful sentiment, which historically suggests limited downside risk and the potential for a short-term rebound. The sudden surge in fear was reflected in the sharp increase in bond prices as investors shifted from high-risk to low-risk assets. With bullish short-term and long-term trends since early June, bond prices have reached overbought conditions, suggesting they are likely to slow down in the short term but continue outperforming in the long term, aligning with market expectations of future rate cuts. The inverse can be observed in the equity markets, with US indices in oversold conditions and exhibiting recent bearish short-term and long-term trends. This suggests that equities are likely to experience a short-term bounce but will continue to decline in the long term, providing a potential opportunity to sell. The cryptocurrency market tells a similar but much more pronounced story, with bearish short-term and long-term trends evident since late June. Despite being oversold, the future outlook for the cryptomarket remains pessimistic and is likely to underperform equities, especially if investors continue to reduce risk. This flight to the relative safety of mega caps has been a recurring theme since March 2021, when both the small cap and mid cap to mega cap ratios turned bearish, a trend that remains unbroken and is likely to continue unless a recession materializes and forces a shift to looser monetary policy. Similar trends are likely to continue in the cryptocurrency markets, as evidenced by the breakout in Bitcoin dominance, which currently positions Bitcoin’s market cap at 62% of the entire cryptocurrency market when stable coins are excluded from the calculation. Concluding Thoughts While the market is starting to panic amid recessionary fears, the data does not yet confirm that the economy is currently entering a recession. Investors should avoid panic selling, as a rebound is likely to occur in the short term given the current overextended conditions. For the mid to long term, the situation calls for a cautious approach, focusing on managing risk and gradually shifting from riskier to less risky assets, as indicated by longer-term trends in asset markets. Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.
AMEX:SPY
by ingeforberg
A Recession Is Coming - Brace for Impact First things first What is a Recession? A recession is a period when the economy isn't doing well. It means businesses are selling less, people are losing jobs or not getting raises, and overall, there's less money being spent. It's like a slowdown in the economy where things are not growing, and sometimes they shrink. This period of economic decline usually lasts for a few months or longer. Usually, when we have two consecutive quarters of negative Gross Domestic Product (GDP) we say that we are in a recession. Now, let's look at previous recessions to see if we can find some patterns that help us predict the coming one. 😊 This is how you can navigate through the chart: - past recessions are highlighted with orange colored boxes based on the data from "FRED economic data". - The purple line chart shows the US inflation rate. - The US GDP is shown in a green step-line chart. - The US interest rate is shown with an orange line. - The Yellow line chart shows the unemployment rate in the US. - The most important line chart here is the blue one that shows the spread between the 10-year bond yield and the 3-month bond yield (Yes we could also use 2-year instead of 3-month). This blue line, the yield curve, is important to us because it's a reliable indicator that almost every time gave us a heads up for a recession (if you were looking at it of course 😁). When it falls below zero, we call it the inverted yield curve and we hit a recession almost every time it gets back up after spending some time below zero. An inverted yield curve tells us that the market participants are concerned about future economic growth It can lead to tighter financial conditions, reduced lending, and lower consumer and business spending, which can contribute to a downturn in the economy. With that said, take a look at the chart and you can easily spot the repetitive pattern of interest rate hikes/cuts, unemployment rate, and the inverted yield curve just before each recession. With the strong possibility of having the first rate cut in September, and the patterns you see on the chart, can you say that we are going to have a hard landing and a recession? I would say yes. If you say we are not going into a recession and your counter argument is backed by a low unemployment rate and a positive GDP and a declining inflation rate, this chart does not support the idea. I know there are other factors that might support the soft landing scenario, and I would like to have your point of view on this. So, please share your thoughts in comments section if you are reading this post through Tradingview. 😊 For further research, you can pull up the charts of indices like S&P500 or commodities of your choice to see how they moved during each recession. This will help you find some patterns that might assist you in your future investments.
TVC:US10Y
by SamanFx0
UNEMPLOYMENT / FED FUNDS RATE - PLAY BOOKUNEMPLOYMENT / FED FUNDS RATE - PLAY BOOK This post I intend to explore with you the cyclic relationship we can observer between: 1) US Unemployment Rate (BLUE), 2) 21D SMA (Orange) based in unemployment data, and 3) Resultant Recessions (Gray Bars) Historically, the general play book / sequence of events suggest once we break the 21 Day SMA (orange line), it is the start of unemployment unwinding and we lead into a recession. As the 'FED FUNDs RATE' is the artificial tool used to 'Guide' the credit market (politically correct explination), the obvious question then is; "What is the relationship / behavior of interest rates historically with this trend? Are we experiencing similar behaviour to the last 30 - 40 years?" The Red line show the FED funds rate on the chart. The below sequence of events show how these variable play with each other: The story goes: the FED increases the 'FED FUNDS RATE' (aka interest rates) because low periods of interest rates is resulting in a 'HOT' economy and causing inflation (i.e. market forces the FEDs hand to raise interest rates as the return for lending money to credit markets does not match the current risks). At some point during interest rate rises: 1) FED rise in interest rates is held constant (the lagging effect of higher rates start to hit the economy resulting in slowing down economic activity - i.e. spending) 2) Record low unemployment starts to rise (Cross of 21D SMA historically has signaled a point of no return) 3) Fed start to drop rates due to employment increase, deflationary market disruption 4) Unemployment begins to rapidly increase 5) Recession WHERE ARE WE NOW? According to this play book, we are in currently in step 2 and approaching point 3 . If you find this post interesting, you may find my discussion around the 2 Year Treasury Bond Yield vs FED Funds Rate interesting. This relationship is what I was using to speculate interest rate rises before they happened, and that they would be higher than people were expecting when there was talk of rates rising... The Market in all cases will eventually win...
FRED:UNEMPLOY
by Brodie
1
$EUIRYY -EU YoY (CPI) source: EUROSTAT The inflation rate in the Euro Area declined to 2.9% year-on-year in October 2023, reaching its lowest level since July 2021 and falling slightly below the market consensus of 3.1% . Meanwhile, The Core Rate, which filters out volatile food and energy prices, also cooled to 4.2% in October; marking its lowest point since July 2022. However, both rates remained above the European Central Bank's target of 2%. The energy cost tumbled by 11.1% (compared to -4.6% in September), and the rates of inflation eased for both food, alcohol, and tobacco (7.5% compared to 8.8%) and non-energy industrial goods (3.5% compared to 4.1%). Services inflation remained relatively stable at 4.6%, compared to 4.7% in the previous month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices edged up 0.1% in October, after a 0.3% gain in September.
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Macro Monday 52 - Vietnam – The Global Food Supply Giant Macro Monday 52 Vietnam – A Global Food Supply Giant & Diverse Manufacturer According to a report by global wealth intelligence firm New World Wealth and investment, Vietnam is forecast to see a 125% increase in wealth over the next 10 years. This would be the largest expansion in wealth of any country in terms of GDP per capita and number of millionaires, according to the New World Wealth. “Vietnam is positioned to see the sharpest increase in wealth growth in the world over the next decade as it cements its status as a global manufacturing hub” New World Wealth. The GDP growth rate for Vietnam in 2024 is expected to meet the government’s target of 6.5% making it one of the fastest growing economies in terms of GDP growth, the GDP growth rate reached as high as 8% in 2022. Vietnam is also home to 100 million people with 70% of the population between the ages of 15 – 69 and 25% under the age of 15, offering some sustainability to the long-term workforce. Vietnam’s top exports: 1. Electrical machinery and equipment: Valued at $187.1 billion (40.8% of total exports). 2. Machinery including computers: Amounting to $40.1 billion (8.7%). 3. Footwear: Contributing $33.7 billion (7.4%). 4. Knit or crochet clothing and accessories: Worth $21.5 billion (4.7%). 5. Furniture, bedding, lighting, signs, and prefabricated buildings: Totaling $21 billion (4.6%). 6. Clothing and accessories (not knit or crochet): Representing $20.1 billion (4.4%) Footwear experienced the highest growth among these categories, increasing by 85% from 2021 to 2022. Additionally, machinery (including computers) saw a significant 66.3% advance in export sales during the same period. Nike and Adidas have established their main production bases in Vietnam. If there is one thing everyone needs, it’s a pair of shoes, a great staple for the country to specialize in. Food Produce In recent years, Vietnam has quietly transformed from a regional agricultural producer into a global food powerhouse. Its innovative food industry now plays a critical role in shaping the world’s food supply and that has not happened by chance. Vietnams food story is historic but has also been recently significantly leveraged through government incentives and investment. Vietnam’s impressive array of food exports includes rice, coffee, cassava, bananas, mangoes, and citrus fruits. These products not only sustain local communities but also have a substantial impact on feeding people worldwide. If you ate rice recently or had a robusta coffee, there is an increasing probability that it came from Vietnam. Lets have a look at some of the main Vietnamese food exports that are critical to the global food supply Rice Vietnam will likely become the 2nd largest rice exporter in the world in the 2024/25 season, over taking Thailand’s current 2nd place export volume of 8.2 million tonnes annually. Vietnam exported approximately 7.6 million tonnes in the 2023 to 160 countries. This is expected to exceed 8.5 million tonnes in 2024/25. The Philippines remains Vietnams largest rice buyer, accounting for 45.5% of the country’s rice export turnover. It is interesting to revisit last weeks Macro Monday Country, the Philippines and their close trade ties with Vietnam. The Philippines is one of the largest producers of coconut oil. It is starting to look like South East Asia is a diverse set of critical food producers and disseminators. India hold 1st place as the largest exporter of rice in the world, exporting 17 million tonnes annually. We must acknowledge China as the largest producer of rice in the world at 208 million tonnes, however China only exported c. 2.2 million tonnes, making China a lessor contributor to the supply of rice around the globe. Coffee Vietnam is also the 2nd largest coffee exporter in the world, exporting 1.5 million tons of coffee a year. It is their second most exported asset after rice. Vietnam is known as one of the world’s largest producers of the Robusta coffee bean. Remarkably, Vietnam contributes a significant 40% of the world’s overall Robusta bean production, renowned for its bitterness and suitability in well-rounded coffee blends. Similar to the Ivory Coast, the largest producer/exporter of Cocoa in the world that we covered a few weeks ago, there is also a strong French colonial connection in Vietnam. Vietnam was colonised by the French between 1858 and 1900. This is relevant because the exploitation of natural resources for direct export was the chief purpose of most French investments post colonisation. The robusta coffee in Vietnam was introduced by the French during this period which is the only reason the region has the unique robusta coffee production and export ability. Whilst this could be perceived as having a good long term impact on Vietnams economy, there was a segment I came upon which outlined how rice production was significantly increased as early as the 1900’s, then pushed by the French colonists. This segment paints a tragic picture whilst helping us understand how these countries with favourable land and climates where forcefully farmed and natives subjugated; “ Through the construction of irrigation works, chiefly in the Mekong delta, the area of land devoted to rice cultivation quadrupled between 1880 and 1930. During the same period, however, the individual peasant’s rice consumption decreased without the substitution of other foods. The new lands were not distributed among the landless and the peasants but were sold to the highest bidder or given away at nominal prices to Vietnamese collaborators and French speculators.” - Britannica Excerpt Considering the above, it is easier to understand how these countries have become major producers but also major exporters for Rice, Coffee and Cocoa. Robusta Coffee Background Coffea canephora, commonly known as Robusta coffee, has its origins in central and western sub-Saharan Africa. Dutch botanists discovered it in its native form in the former Belgian Congo, and it was later introduced to Vietnam in 1900 after specific coffee rust disease devastated separate plantations in Ceylon(Sri Lanka) and Java (Indonesia). You might recognise these names for the famous name sakes, Ceylon Tea and Java Coffee (Arabica). It appears South East Asias has a strong history of production in not just tea, but coffee also. Coffea canephora boasts several unique features. First, it contains nearly twice the caffeine compared to Arabica beans, contributing to its bold flavour and strength, making it ideal for espresso-based drinks and commercial blends. Second, Robusta plants thrive at lower altitudes (typically below 800 meters) and in hotter climates with ample rainfall. Their resilience against diseases and pests makes them a popular choice for coffee farmers in tropical regions. Lastly, Robusta beans deliver a pronounced bitterness and are less aromatic than Arabica beans, appealing to those seeking a powerful coffee experience. Now lets have a look at The Vietnam Stock Index which is valued in Vietnamese Dong. The Vietnam Stock Index - HOSE:VNINDEX - You can clearly see a long term ascending triangle and a rising 10 month moving average. The targets and trade structure is clear and presents a great long term potential upside over 5 – 10 year time horizon. VanEck Vietnam ETF - HOSE:VNM For a shorter term play, and to take advantage of this growing economy, you could invest in the VanEck Vietnam ETF between now and 2026. - Ideally you would want the price to break out above the red line (POC) and find support above the 200 Day SMA (Blue Line). Once the 200 Day SMA is sloping upwards it would be a matter of riding the trend. - Given price has been gradually making higher lows since 2020, we can presume that this is a long term increase in demand gradually pressing up price. We have a stop placed with a 6.5% downside risk with potential for 77% return or an earlier exit if you wish with lessor percentage gained. - The structure for the trade is clear on the chart and it is there to be played. We have economic information that suggests that Vietnam is going to have a good decade. Based on all our information above and the positivity around the Vietnamese economy, there is ample opportunity over the next few years to establish a good long term allocations in the above indexes or specific stocks in Vietnam. Getting exposure to South East Asia in general is starting to seem like a smart choice. The Vietnam economy, similar to the Philippine economy we covered last week, and the South Korean economy we covered weeks ago, are all signalling that they are likely entering into golden era’s of significant growth. All these charts are available on my TradingView Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next few years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide to see how the Vietnamese stock market has performed. I hope it’s helpful.
HOSE:VNINDEXLong
by PukaCharts
$DOGE Set for 3,000% Surge Dogecoin Set for 3,000% Surge Dogecoin, the leading meme cryptocurrency, is positioned for substantial growth. Although similar predictions have previously triggered FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) among investors, this time the potential upside appears more imminent. Key Points: Cycle Pattern: Dogecoin exhibits a distinct cycle pattern. It often remains flat for extended periods before breaking out and surging parabolically. Investors can either buy during the pump, taking a higher risk as momentum may soon decrease, or purchase during downturns and hold until the next significant surge, maximizing returns. The latter strategy presents today's opportunity. Memes on the Rise: As new meme coins emerge, investors hope for significant gains. However, Dogecoin remains the most established and reliable meme coin, making it a safer bet for substantial returns. Elon Musk's Endorsement: Elon Musk has indicated that Tesla will accept Dogecoin. Additionally, Dogecoin is set to be integrated into X.com, Musk's major social media platform. Notably, Dogecoin is the only cryptocurrency held by Musk, the world's richest person, underscoring its potential.
CRYPTO:DOGEUSDLong
by DracmaCapital
Trading Psychology: How to trade economic data.As traders, one of the biggest challenges we face is deciding what factors to consider when opening a trade: should we base ourselves on charts, news, macroeconomic data? Many opt for a combination of all these elements, and although all traders go through the same stages, there are different routes to success. The problem with following the crowd is that you end up doing exactly what everyone else is doing. The solution: forge your own path, with all the challenges this entails. Most traders follow the news, analyze the data and then compare them with the charts to try to determine the best entry point. And as if that were not enough, they often seek the opinion of other online traders to confirm their decision. However, consulting the opinions of others can be counterproductive, as they can alter, for better or worse, any personal opinion about the analysis we are conducting. We always tend to think that others know more than us and that if they think differently, it must be for some reason and that we will not be the ones who are right. This is just another example of market psychology and the human tendency to always follow the crowd, regardless of whether it is right or not. I believe that in order to make a living from trading, research must start with yourself, it is essential. And this is necessary to confirm or refute the information with which the market bombards us every minute. You need very intense training and experience to make a living from trading. How many traders trade intraday based on economic calendar data? How many really make money? It’s not worth it. Aware of the multitude of traders who congregate around the platform at key times, market makers have all kinds of tricks. Their favorite; the sweep. Up, down and both sides at the same time. Is a mental stop better? In my case, no. I don’t know how mentally strong you are, but the word says it all: mental-stop. When you expose yourself to letting the mind think, you are entering dangerous psychological terrain and it is very difficult, if you are losing, to close with discipline in each and every operation. Notice that I say in each and every one, because with not respecting a single one and that the price does not return in that operation to the entry point, it will be your elimination as a trader. Therefore, anything that can cause a loss is worth discarding. Greed doesn’t let you, we know that with a data in favor of our position you can make a lot of money but if the data is contrary and also forms a gap, no one will save us. And let’s not talk about if you are leveraged. Being leveraged and having the position run against you is one of the hardest experiences a trader can have. Seeing how your capital is destroyed at forced marches, how losses increase, how you are not able to close because you expect a recovery to do so is dramatic. Realizing that first loss, which at first seemed big to you and now doesn’t seem so much. You would “kill” to lose only that. Then, once you are losing a lot you will no longer be able to close. There comes a time when you assume it and let the losses run as far as they go. You have accepted it. You risk the account in the hope of recovering. This means hours of waiting for the desired recovery. In addition, the market is very rogue. After the fall comes the rebound, usually up to half. You get the idea that it is going to recover completely and instead of closing you hold on to see if the moment comes when you no longer lose anything. The market will make you believe that this is going to happen. You may even average (add more positions) so that the recovery is faster and by the way, if the price goes beyond where you have opened the first operation, you even come out with profits. But, as I say, the market is very cruel and when you start to dream and have hope again, it turns around and falls with even more force if possible, crushing your account and destroying your morale. The result we all know. If the account does not have enough capital to withstand the bleeding, margin call will “come to see us”. And if it does, it will take you days, weeks, months or even years to recover your capital, if you do. Days, weeks, months and even years without liquidity to do what you like the most, trading. In view of this, stoploss, as well as avoiding any situation that makes you lose is more than justified.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by CryptoCoBit
MACRO MONDAY 21~NAHB Housing Market IndexMACRO MONDAY 21 NAHB Housing Market Index The NAHB Housing Market Index (HMI) is compiled from a monthly survey issued by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) to U.S. builders in order to measure the current and forward looking sentiment for single-family homes being built or with the prospect of being built in the U.S. In the survey builders rate their current single-family sales, sales prospects over the next six months, and the traffic of prospective buyers. The NAHB Builders consists of more than more than 700 state and local associations with 140,000 members. According to the NAHB these builders account for some 80% of the new homes built in the U.S. Correlation with U.S. Housing Starts The HMI displays a close correlation with “U.S. Housing Starts”. U.S Housing starts are a broader measure of new residential construction for privately owned homes which includes multi-family housing (units & apartment complexes). U.S. Housing Starts is supplied monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau from surveys conducted and is considered a key economic indicator of the overall housing sector. The release of U.S. Housing Starts is the day after the HMI, so the HMI gives us a day head start on the 11thbusiness day of each month (16th Nov), with Housing Starts released on the 12th business day (17th Nov). The correlation between the HMI and the U.S. Housing Starts: The NAHB release on Thurs 16thNov (11th Business Day) came in at 34 ▫️ HMI readings above 50 reflect a generally favorable market view and outlook in the housing sector whilst a reading below 50 indicates weakness in the housing sector. ▫️ Since July 2023 the HMI has fallen from 56 down to 34. ▫️ The HMI registered an all-time high reading in November 2020 at 90 and since then has made a series of lower highs over 32 months. These lower highs combined with a reading below 50 do not bode well on the recession front as you can see from the below chart (red arrows). Similar to recent months, from May – Aug 1989 the HMI peaked its head above the 50 level for these four summer months before tanking down to 20. From May – Aug 2023 the HMI briefly rose above the 50 level in similar fashion and appears to now be reducing at a rapid rate. An interesting level to watch will be the diagonal support line at approx. 31 (dashed line). If held it would be a higher low and could indicate a pause in the decline. A level to keep an eye on because if lost it means we have consistently made lower lows and lower highs. Not a good look at all and we would be eyeing the 20 level in such a scenario. US Housing Starts ▫️ US Housing Starts release on Friday 17th Nov (12th Business Day) which provides for Octobers figures came in higher than expected at 1,372K vs the 1,350K estimate. Building Permits came in higher than expected at 1,487K vs the 1,450K estimate. ▫️ Given that the HMI is in less than favorable territory at 34 (HMI only accounts for single family homes), the higher than expected US Housing Starts could be an indication that larger multi-family housing (units and apartments) are being built at a greater rate than single-family houses. In any event US Housing Starts has been in decline since April 2022 In summary the charts suggest the long term trend for both the NAHB and US Housing Starts are in decline with multi-unit properties (Apartments) being more rapidly built in recent months than individual homes. We will keep an eye on the these metrics going forward and are now aware we can get a days advance indication from NAHB ahead of US Housing Starts being released. PUKA
ECONOMICS:USHMI
by PukaCharts
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