US500 short ideaI know a lot of people want the stock market to crash and burn, and for the US economy to go into a recession.
Well here is my idea of what to look for in a short trade on the US500, ES, SPX etc.
But be warned, after this tax drain, if the US Congress lifts the debt ceiling, your shorts will be blown out of the water.
There will be more and more positive fiscal transfers as the level of interest rate as seen in the EFFR stays high and even goes a little higher.
Macroeconomics
US Dollar looks bearish stillAfter examining the Weekly chart for the DXY, it appears to me that the dollar flow is likely to continue downward for some time. Today's Advance GDP q/q reading is expected to be 2.0%, following the disappointing last reading of 2.6%. Additionally, the US Unemployment Claims are anticipated to be higher, at around 247K.
In my recent blog posts, I discuss the current tax drain in the US, which is an annual occurrence that typically results in assets such as the S&P decreasing in value. However, this year is different as we have reached the debt ceiling, and there is a possibility that things could become precarious if the spending limits are not raised. While there is certainly uncertainty in the US political process, some financial media outlets and fintwit users are discussing the possibility of recessions and de-dollarization. While I agree that there is a flight from the greenback, this trend could easily reverse if a political resolution is reached.
For each of the yen crosses that I have been following I'll wait to see where they are at when we get the news. I am not looking for trades before then.
Here are the levels I expect us to touch at some point in the near future.
USDJPY
GBPJPY
EURJPY
Gold: Long term Buy Short term NeutralLong Term Bull run is intct, thougfh short term the wave cycle can still take it to sub 1900 levels.
Wait for the big signal to go Long. Resistances Galore at teh current levels.
Fundamentals & Technical AnalysisHow to apply fundamental analysis and macroeconomic trends to complement your technical analysis and trading strategy
Fundamental analysis and macroeconomic trends are important tools for traders who want to understand the underlying forces that drive the market. Technical analysis, on the other hand, focuses on the price action and patterns of the market. By combining both approaches, traders can gain a more comprehensive and balanced perspective on the market and improve their trading strategy.
Fundamental analysis of the macroeconomic environment involves studying the economic, political, and social factors that affect the supply and demand of an asset. Some of the most relevant fundamental indicators are:
- Gross domestic product (GDP): This measures the total value of goods and services produced by a country in a given period. It reflects the economic growth and health of a country. A higher GDP indicates a stronger economy and a higher demand for its currency and assets.
- Inflation: This measures the change in the average price level of goods and services over time. It affects the purchasing power of money and the interest rates. A moderate inflation indicates a healthy economy with stable growth. A high inflation indicates an overheated economy with excessive money supply and a lower demand for its currency and assets.
- Interest rates: This measures the cost of borrowing money. It affects the profitability of investments and the exchange rates. A higher interest rate indicates a tighter monetary policy and a higher demand for its currency and assets. A lower interest rate indicates a looser monetary policy and a lower demand for its currency and assets.
- Trade balance: This measures the difference between a country's exports and imports. It reflects the competitiveness and demand for a country's goods and services in the global market. A positive trade balance indicates a trade surplus and a higher demand for its currency and assets. A negative trade balance indicates a trade deficit and a lower demand for its currency and assets.
To complement technical analysis and trading strategy, traders can use fundamental analysis and macroeconomic trends to identify the long-term direction and strength of the market, as well as potential opportunities and risks. For example, suppose a trader wants to trade EUR/USD, which is the exchange rate between the euro and the US dollar. The trader can use technical analysis to identify the support and resistance levels, trend lines, chart patterns, indicators, and signals on different time frames. The trader can also use fundamental analysis to assess the economic conditions and outlook of both the eurozone and the US, as well as their relative interest rates, inflation rates, trade balances, and other factors that affect their currencies.
Suppose the trader observes that the eurozone has a higher GDP growth rate, lower inflation rate, positive trade balance, and stable interest rate than the US. The trader can infer that the eurozone has a stronger economy than the US, which implies a higher demand for the euro than the US dollar. The trader can also observe that the EUR/USD is in an uptrend on the daily chart, with higher highs and higher lows, supported by a rising moving average. The trader can conclude that the fundamental analysis confirms the technical analysis, which suggests that EUR/USD is likely to continue to rise in the long term.
The trader can then use technical analysis to find an optimal entry point to buy EUR/USD. For example, suppose the trader sees that EUR/USD is retracing from a recent high to test a support level at 1.2000, which coincides with a 50% Fibonacci retracement level and a rising trend line. The trader can also see that there is bullish divergence between the price and an oscillator indicator such as RSI or MACD, which indicates that the downward momentum is weakening. The trader can decide to buy EUR/USD at 1.2000, with a stop loss below 1.1900 and a target at 1.2200.
By applying fundamental analysis and macroeconomic trends to complement technical analysis and trading strategy, traders can gain a deeper understanding of the market dynamics and enhance their trading performance.
If you are stock trading, you should consider the following fundamental indicators which are all readily available as trends on the TradingView platform:
- ROE (Return on Equity): This indicator measures how effective a company is in generating profits for its shareholders. It is calculated by dividing the net income by the shareholders' equity. A high ROE indicates that the company is using its resources efficiently and creating value for its owners.
- EPS (Earnings Per Share): This indicator measures how much profit a company makes per share of its common stock. It is calculated by dividing the net income by the number of outstanding shares. A high EPS indicates that the company is profitable and can potentially pay dividends or reinvest in its growth.
- DYR (Dividend Yield Ratio): This indicator measures how much dividend a company pays per share of its common stock relative to its earnings. It is calculated by dividing the total dividends by the net income or the dividend per share by the earnings per share. A high DYR indicates that the company is rewarding its shareholders with a steady income stream and has confidence in its future prospects.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow): This indicator measures how much cash a company generates from its operations after deducting capital expenditures. It is calculated by subtracting the capital expenditures from the operating cash flow. A high FCF indicates that the company has enough cash to pay its debts, invest in new projects, or return money to its shareholders.
- PEG (Projected Earnings Growth): This indicator measures how fast a company's earnings are expected to grow in the future relative to its current price. It is calculated by dividing the price-to-earnings ratio by the annual earnings growth rate. A low PEG indicates that the company is undervalued and has strong growth potential.
These fundamental indicators can help traders to identify stocks that are overvalued, undervalued, or fairly priced based on their financial performance and future prospects. They can also help traders to compare different stocks within the same industry or across different industries and sectors.
DXY-- That candle, though! Reassurance, perhaps?Things are getting interesting! My colleagues don't
think it's time to start getting aggressive on the dollar,
with the main point of emphasis being that rate hikes are
supposed to slow, or not continue increasing as we continue
forward this year. I value my constituents opinions and will
consider it... But, no risk, no reward! Plus, I'm grateful to not
be so attached to my ideas. As long as we are extracting value
from the markets we participate in, who cares if we are right
or wrong in our guesses?
What markets are you focused on currently? Let me know!
As always, happy trading, and Godspeed.
OPEC’s supply cuts pre-empt economic weaknessThe Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+) producers surprised the market with a decision on Sunday 2 April 2023 to lower production limits by more than 1mn barrels per day (bpd) from May through the end of 2023. This decision was announced ahead of the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting scheduled on 3 April and was contrary to market expectations that the committee would keep policy unchanged. Over the prior week, OPEC+ ministers were giving public assurances that they would stick to their production targets for the entire year. This cut tells us that OPEC+ is pre-empting weaker demand into the year and was looking to shore up the market.
OPEC+ announcement may have caught speculators by surprise
It is evident Sunday’s decision caught the market by surprise evident from the commitment of trader’s report which showed net speculative positioning in Brent crude oil futures at -44k contracts were 146% below the 5-year average. Sentiment on the crude oil market had been weak prior to the decision.
Demand outlook remains soft amidst weaker economic backdrop
OPEC has been markedly dovish on oil demand for some time relative to other forecasters such as the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This cut helps solve the disparity that existed between OPEC and the EIA. OPEC expects oil demand to grow by around 2mn bpd in 2023. A significant portion of this growth (nearly 710,000bpd) is reliant on Chinese oil demand . Given that such a large amount of demand hinges on a single economy poses a risk to the demand outlook as the pace of China’s recovery post re-opening has not been as robust as previously anticipated. At the same time, tightening credit conditions owing to the recent banking crisis is also likely to weigh on growth forecasts in the rest of the developed world. Global Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI) indicators suggest manufacturing activity has contracted since September 2022.
Supply outlook will be driven by new OPEC+ cuts
Since Russia has been producing less than its notional limit, the reduction on actual production will be less than 1mn bpd. But with Saudi Arabia committing to voluntary reduction of 500,000bpd we would expect the overall decline in OPEC supply to be around 900,000bpd by the beginning of May 2023. Assuming OPEC production holding at the recent 28.9mn bpd for April, our balances would point to an equilibrium in Q2 and a return to a deficit in Q3 and Q4. This deficit is largely a function of OPEC+ cuts as opposed to stronger demand globally. The front end of the Brent crude oil futures curve remains in backwardation with a roll yield of +0.4%
OPEC+ producers can also cut without the fear that they will lose significant market share to non-OPEC members. Previously, OPEC+ would be reluctant to let prices rise too high, as it would incentivise a supply response from US producers. However, US producers today appear more focussed on capital discipline and maximizing shareholder returns. The US also has limited capacity to plug the shortfall created by OPEC+ cuts owing to last year’s unprecedented release from strategic US oil reserves (now at a 40-year low).
Conclusion
In the short term, OPEC production cuts are almost always supportive evident from the recent price reaction Brent crude oil prices have risen (+6.54% ). However, over the medium term, the price response to cuts have been more mixed as they do tend to signal underlying weakness in the supply/demand balance. Either OPEC countries are expecting demand to be significantly weaker or doubt oil production in Russia will decline as sharply as forecasted.
So, with speculative positioning at currently low levels alongside further inventory draws expected later in the year, the risks are titled towards the upside for crude oil prices. However, given the uncertainty in the macro environment, we expect the upside in prices to be capped at about US$90 per barrel.
DXY-- Longing opportunity Wednesday-FridayStill feeling very neutral regarding the US Dollar, but in order to extract value
from a market, you have to take risks, and manage those risks properly.
Consider waiting for more confirmation that we are breaking out from this
small timeframe downtrend, and entering on the retest..
Expect more volatility heading into the NYSE open Wednesday, followed by
a lot q/q news, etc. on Thurs & Friday.
As always, happy trading, and Godspeed.
BTCUSD-- First look in sometime.I thought I'd document my BTCUSD chart because its been
awhile.. I took hold of some way back in 2018, which seems like
another lifetime ago. Anyways, it's always fun to take a
peek whenever I have some time. I have another perspective
that I'm going to check out as well, I'll be sure to publish it
eventually, & that link will be down below.
I am not trading BTCUSD as I write this..
I had some time this morning before book club. We are
currently reading "See You at the Top" by Zig Ziglar. A
wonderful read so far.
What books do you recommend?
Leave a comment telling me any suggestions.
As always, happy trading, and to change things up for the
first time ever, instead of "good luck", I will be using "Godspeed"
from here on out.
As always, happy trading, and Godspeed.
DXY-- Last trading attempt approaching Friday's openPlease take a look, enjoy, and criticize the last few postings I've made regarding
the DXY this week. Traders know there is not much to say. This truly is a beautiful game we
play. A never ending game, at that. I'm still trying to find my footing, my balance,
if you will, on the TV platform. Who has a question? Who wants to discuss? My
main studies have been on Fibonacci levels, general/typical market structure,
and, of course, the infamous left-wing news power-structure and how it affects
participant sentiment. Go long, baby. He's about to throw it. Just my opinion.
"Keep it simple, stupid."
As always, happy trading, and good luck!
DXY-- Balancing risk management & your ideas!The next level to look for in my eyes if the USD continues to gain
strength (other than typical psych levels) is 100.0 ish.
Refer to this chart & other postings of mine regarding the DXY/USD if your
looking to get a better grasp of my perspective. (Links below) It is also important
to keep in mind the weight of the incoming news this week. Remember to
use discernment when deciding how you choose to risk your money, whether it be
day trading or investing. (Big news this week.)
I'm still long.. for what it's worth, but I'm technically neutral.
As always, happy trading, & good luck!
SIVB drop of 60% in one dayWhile everyone, including FED, is assuring that banks are adequately capitalised and there is nothing to worry about.
These are not good signs.
Manage your portfolio risk.
DXY-- Who's ready? >:) [Candle Alt. Version]Enjoy the ride everyone. Should be a fun year in this high volatility zone.
IYKYK, "makes sense, right?", etc. blah, blah.
Received some news letters on CMF's this week from investment affiliates.
Be sure to see what the 95 is being fed as we approach Q1/Q2.
3 Major talking points seem to be trending.
As always, happy trading, and good luck!
DXY-- Who's ready? >:)Enjoy the ride everyone. Should be a fun year in this high volatility zone.
IYKYK, "makes sense, right?", etc. blah, blah.
Received some news letters on CMF's this week from investment affiliates.
Be sure to see what the 95 is being fed as we approach Q1/Q2.
3 Major talking points seem to be trending.
As always, happy trading, and good luck!
Macro and crypto: What should traders and investors expect?Hello, everyone! Today we would like to discuss macro and crypto, what affects that, what depends on that and what to expect from the market and when the new bull cycle will start
A LITTLE BIT OF THEORY
1. US PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) – macroeconomic indicator that shows the level of business activity.
2. DGS 1&5 – average 1 and 5 year US Treasury yield.
3. FED Funds Rate – the interest rate at which U.S. banks lend their excess reserves for short terms to other banks.
Let’s figure out what's GOOD and what's BAD for the crypto market
1. PMI
Values above 50 are a good sign, the economy is growing, markets have more liquidity.
Values below 50 are a bad sign, the economy is shrinking, there is less and less liquidity in the market.
2. DGS 1/5
High rates are bad, people are used to investing where there is a clear yield and clear rules for receiving returns, where there is less risk.
Low rates are good, bonds do not bring profitability, people are forced to choose more profitable, and therefore risky instruments for the preservation and multiplication of capital
3. FED Funds Rate
High rates are bad, the interest on capital and liquidity is becoming more and more, the required level of profitability must be higher than the prime rate + the rate of the individual counterparty. Liquidity becomes less and less, access to it becomes more and more difficult.
Low rates are good, liquidity is available to everyone, everyone can take funds to realize their goals and objectives, the overall profitability of any business is quite low. Lots of free money in the market.
Which market can be called BULLISH?
1. US PMI values above 50
2. Low DGS values 1/5
3. Low FED Funds Rate
That's the kind of market we had from April 2020 until November-December 2021. At that point, many realized that the music was no longer playing. The FED hammered the last nail in the coffin of the bull market in February-March 2022, and that's when all the fun and the official bear cycle began.
How do we know if the market has flipped and we're growing up again? Recommendations for PATIENT TRADERS
1. US PMI will come out of the crisis – current values are ATL from May 2020
2. The FED will do a soft landing, beat inflation and start lowering rates – very bullish signal. The important thing is to beat inflation, otherwise our bull market will be very short-lived, or the next bear market will be super painful.
3. DGS 1/5 will fall to spring 2020 values
If you see all of this, then unpack your stackable piggy bank and get ready for a hot period, we will be back in the game and the market of universal profits. As practice shows, everyone will have 3 to 6 months to get into their positions and get ready to take off. Also, remember that the market can be irrational, the main thing for everyone is to let their strategy survive it. Markets are capable of being irrational longer than traders will be solvent.
What to do now?
We’ve tried to give an answer to the question in our previous article. And we still stick to this local position. This article will allow you to look at the crypto market within macro analysis and the overall picture. But then everything depends on you!
Tell us if you study the macroeconomics rates, which indicators you use and which topics you would like to discuss! Don't forget to check links below and check our trading terminal!
NFA & DYOR
Short-term up with range later in 2023Why market is entering into short-term bullishness again and latter uncertainty or range?
We will do both technical and fundamental analysis in this video tutorial, and we will see how both analyses can affirm each other.
Content:
. Why market is entering into a short-term bullishness? (Fundamental & Technical studies)
. Subsequently the market will enter into a range (Fundamental & Technical studies)
CME Micro Nasdaq Futures
Minimum fluctuation
0.25 = $0.50
1 = $2
10 = $20
100 = $200
1000 = $2,000
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DXY potential LONG SIDEAfter the last three CPI reports that reported better than forecasts, DXY start a corrective move so bad…but we thinks it’s over in view of the macroeconomic aspect as well as technical. Financial markets thinks we will have pivot on monetary policies of Central banks…it’s make not sense by any mean…here on technical we have an nice spike base at 105.500, and 101.400 was touched by a hunting formation and we can expect to THIS MOVE IN WEEK AHEAD.
Noia (Syntropy) - Next leg down target Bullish on this coin in the long term but as for now, the project being unfinished and macroeconomic factors imminent, another leg down is most likely. I will be buying on this level.
BTC - Next leg down targetMacroeconomic factors will not do Bitcoin any favours in the short term. I believe the recent spike was a consequence of short position liquidations (~600mln) and not new adoption or demand. Therefore another leg down is more likely than anything else.
DAILY SECTOR WATCH : Space boomingWhile had a bad year in the markets some sectors are giving signs of recovery.
One of them is the Space Industry which has seen explosive growth.
We also see some space stocks lagging behind the sector. Good buy while waiting for momentum pick up.
Crypto Market has also been in the lead but does not offer many undervalued projects and is still in a range.
Any sectors that are interesting please let me know.
TOTAL SECTOR VIEW:
🟢WEED STOCKS TOP 10
Teradyne
Curaleaf Holdings
Green Thumb Industries
Trulieve Cannabis Corp
Canopy Growth Corp
Verano Holdings Corp
Cronos Group Inc
Tilray Brands Inc
Cresco Labs Inc
SNDL Inc
🔴CRYPTO COINS TOP 10
Bitcoin
Ethereum
Binance Coin
XRP
Dogecoin
ADA
Matic
Tron
Dot
Solana
🟣INDEXES
US30
S&P 500
FRA40
GER30
NTH25
ASX200
EUSTX50
JPN225
HK50
Banknifty
🔵SPACE STOCKS TOP 10
Iridium Communications Inc
Ses
Rocket Lab USA Inc
Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings Inc
Viasat
Maxar Technologies
Eutelsat Communications
Astra Space Inc
Sats
Planet Labs
🟤RETAIL FOOD STOCKS TOP 10
Kroger Company
Albertsons Company
Sendas Distribiduira S A
Sprouts Farmers Market
Grocery Outlet Holdings
Weis Market Inc
Ingles Markets Inc
Arko Corp
Companhia Brasileira De Distribuidao American
Beyond Meat
DAILY SECTOR WATCH🟢WEED STOCKS TOP 10
Teradyne
Curaleaf Holdings
Green Thumb Industries
Trulieve Cannabis Corp
Canopy Growth Corp
Verano Holdings Corp
Cronos Group Inc
Tilray Brands Inc
Cresco Labs Inc
SNDL Inc
🔴CRYPTO COINS TOP 10
Bitcoin
Ethereum
Binance Coin
XRP
Dogecoin
ADA
Matic
Tron
Dot
Solana
🟣INDEXES
US30
S&P 500
FRA40
GER30
NTH25
ASX200
EUSTX50
JPN225
HK50
Banknifty
🔵SPACE STOCKS TOP 10
Iridium Communications Inc
Ses
Rocket Lab USA Inc
Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings Inc
Viasat
Maxar Technologies
Eutelsat Communications
Astra Space Inc
Sats
Planet Labs
🟤RETAIL FOOD STOCKS TOP 10
Kroger Company
Albertsons Company
Sendras Distribiduira S A
Sprouts Farmers Market
Grocery Outlet Holdings
Weis Market Inc
Ingles Markets Inc
Arko Corp
Companhia Brasileira De Distribuidao American
Beyond Meat
Q&As: non-market dataThere's some curious personalities that trade (at least claim to trade) based on news, fundamental metrics, alt data n stuff. I don't mean invest, I mean trade. Well that looks like a skill to be proud off, superstimuli always feels cool aye? Good thing tho there no real reason in doing it all.
The most precise term to explain non-market data is, well, everything that ain't have a direct involvement with what happens inside the order matching servers of a given exchange.
So open interest is in fact a great example of non-market data.
The one & only real purpose for using all this data is to know (not to guess/predict/forecast, not to even anticipate), but to understand when the ACTION is going to happen. If you think deeper, ultimately it's all about asset selection to satisfy whatever purpose you got. if you ever got caught yourself feeling fooled when media release a bad info but prices go up, or media release a good info but prices go down, it's ok. It doesn't work that way, direction of prices can't be affected this way. Direction of prices is the result of how buyers meet sellers which is based on +inf number of factors, where a non-market data is simply just one of these +inf factors. It exclusively provokes action, meat, hype, momentum, volatility, whatever you call it. What's happening is that things start to happen very fast. Without a trigger event, the trading activity would've been the same, it just would've take longer to unwind. News don't change the structure, they make it all happen faster, that's it.
Examples of non-market data that can be used to expect action:
1) Trading schedule, eg the US, EU opening times;
2) Economic releases;
3) Commitment of traders reports;
4) Significant news;
5) Changes in yield curves;
6) "Fundamental" stock data;
7) Open interest;
8) etc etc etc
One really important thing to add is that, just like trading activity is understood in context (other resolutions), sizing also includes context (equity control, market impact), the same way every non-market data event lives in the context (previous releases, other releases, overall economy). You're interesting not in a new per se, but rather in what does it mean in the world. For example, inflation reports don't mean much when the rates are low, but when the rates are high, they trigger significant activity.
That's the area where statistical learning, automated learning, "machine" learning, 'Really' starts to make sense business-wise. The ultimate goal is to create a system that will process every kind of data you have (NLP and TDA should help) and output the tickers with raising/already risen levels of interest.
BTC - Im Bearish TA: Elliott impulse wave (12345) - Elliott correction waves (ABC) - Falling Wedge Pattern - RSI in weakly time frame is still bearish . I can't see any bullish market structure
Macroeconomics: EUR problems bcz of Russia inflation - covid-19
I Smell a Santa Claus RallyWith inflationary expectations low, a decrease in CPI and Core CPI, a likely slowing in interest rate hikes, there's too much positive news in the short term to ignore the likelihood of a near-term rally. Still, some hinges on Jerome Powell's outlook tomorrow, but I expect him to keep language as soft as his last speech. Last month, he was still very domineering in his tone on inflation, but the last FOMC meeting was much softer. I expect that again with inflation ticking down as proof of low inflationary expectations.
I mean, you can hear people freaking out about the economy everywhere. I don't think inflationary expectations are high lol. Listen to his last speech and you can hear a dramatic tone shift.
Here's last FOMC Press Meeting After rate hike in mid November: www.brookings.edu HARD LANGUAGE
Here's his "Inflation and the Labor Market" speech on 11/30: www.youtube.com SOFT LANGUAGE
Long term? You'll have to look at my first post to see that.
Enjoy, and you can find a link to an Economic Release calendar down below for you to save.
InTheMoney
