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Short-term up with range later in 2023Why market is entering into short-term bullishness again and latter uncertainty or range? We will do both technical and fundamental analysis in this video tutorial, and we will see how both analyses can affirm each other. Content: . Why market is entering into a short-term bullishness? (Fundamental & Technical studies) . Subsequently the market will enter into a range (Fundamental & Technical studies) CME Micro Nasdaq Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.25 = $0.50 1 = $2 10 = $20 100 = $200 1000 = $2,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by konhow
11
DXY potential LONG SIDEAfter the last three CPI reports that reported better than forecasts, DXY start a corrective move so bad…but we thinks it’s over in view of the macroeconomic aspect as well as technical. Financial markets thinks we will have pivot on monetary policies of Central banks…it’s make not sense by any mean…here on technical we have an nice spike base at 105.500, and 101.400 was touched by a hunting formation and we can expect to THIS MOVE IN WEEK AHEAD.
TVC:DXYLong
by Dalltrade
3
DAILY SECTOR WATCH : Space boomingWhile had a bad year in the markets some sectors are giving signs of recovery. One of them is the Space Industry which has seen explosive growth. We also see some space stocks lagging behind the sector. Good buy while waiting for momentum pick up. Crypto Market has also been in the lead but does not offer many undervalued projects and is still in a range. Any sectors that are interesting please let me know. TOTAL SECTOR VIEW: 🟢WEED STOCKS TOP 10 Teradyne Curaleaf Holdings Green Thumb Industries Trulieve Cannabis Corp Canopy Growth Corp Verano Holdings Corp Cronos Group Inc Tilray Brands Inc Cresco Labs Inc SNDL Inc 🔴CRYPTO COINS TOP 10 Bitcoin Ethereum Binance Coin XRP Dogecoin ADA Matic Tron Dot Solana 🟣INDEXES US30 S&P 500 FRA40 GER30 NTH25 ASX200 EUSTX50 JPN225 HK50 Banknifty 🔵SPACE STOCKS TOP 10 Iridium Communications Inc Ses Rocket Lab USA Inc Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings Inc Viasat Maxar Technologies Eutelsat Communications Astra Space Inc Sats Planet Labs 🟤RETAIL FOOD STOCKS TOP 10 Kroger Company Albertsons Company Sendas Distribiduira S A Sprouts Farmers Market Grocery Outlet Holdings Weis Market Inc Ingles Markets Inc Arko Corp Companhia Brasileira De Distribuidao American Beyond Meat
OTC:ETCMY
by Honestcowboy
DAILY SECTOR WATCH🟢WEED STOCKS TOP 10 Teradyne Curaleaf Holdings Green Thumb Industries Trulieve Cannabis Corp Canopy Growth Corp Verano Holdings Corp Cronos Group Inc Tilray Brands Inc Cresco Labs Inc SNDL Inc 🔴CRYPTO COINS TOP 10 Bitcoin Ethereum Binance Coin XRP Dogecoin ADA Matic Tron Dot Solana 🟣INDEXES US30 S&P 500 FRA40 GER30 NTH25 ASX200 EUSTX50 JPN225 HK50 Banknifty 🔵SPACE STOCKS TOP 10 Iridium Communications Inc Ses Rocket Lab USA Inc Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings Inc Viasat Maxar Technologies Eutelsat Communications Astra Space Inc Sats Planet Labs 🟤RETAIL FOOD STOCKS TOP 10 Kroger Company Albertsons Company Sendras Distribiduira S A Sprouts Farmers Market Grocery Outlet Holdings Weis Market Inc Ingles Markets Inc Arko Corp Companhia Brasileira De Distribuidao American Beyond Meat
CSE:GTII
by Honestcowboy
Q&As: non-market dataThere's some curious personalities that trade (at least claim to trade) based on news, fundamental metrics, alt data n stuff. I don't mean invest, I mean trade. Well that looks like a skill to be proud off, superstimuli always feels cool aye? Good thing tho there no real reason in doing it all. The most precise term to explain non-market data is, well, everything that ain't have a direct involvement with what happens inside the order matching servers of a given exchange. So open interest is in fact a great example of non-market data. The one & only real purpose for using all this data is to know (not to guess/predict/forecast, not to even anticipate), but to understand when the ACTION is going to happen. If you think deeper, ultimately it's all about asset selection to satisfy whatever purpose you got. if you ever got caught yourself feeling fooled when media release a bad info but prices go up, or media release a good info but prices go down, it's ok. It doesn't work that way, direction of prices can't be affected this way. Direction of prices is the result of how buyers meet sellers which is based on +inf number of factors, where a non-market data is simply just one of these +inf factors. It exclusively provokes action, meat, hype, momentum, volatility, whatever you call it. What's happening is that things start to happen very fast. Without a trigger event, the trading activity would've been the same, it just would've take longer to unwind. News don't change the structure, they make it all happen faster, that's it. Examples of non-market data that can be used to expect action: 1) Trading schedule, eg the US, EU opening times; 2) Economic releases; 3) Commitment of traders reports; 4) Significant news; 5) Changes in yield curves; 6) "Fundamental" stock data; 7) Open interest; 8) etc etc etc One really important thing to add is that, just like trading activity is understood in context (other resolutions), sizing also includes context (equity control, market impact), the same way every non-market data event lives in the context (previous releases, other releases, overall economy). You're interesting not in a new per se, but rather in what does it mean in the world. For example, inflation reports don't mean much when the rates are low, but when the rates are high, they trigger significant activity. That's the area where statistical learning, automated learning, "machine" learning, 'Really' starts to make sense business-wise. The ultimate goal is to create a system that will process every kind of data you have (NLP and TDA should help) and output the tickers with raising/already risen levels of interest.
CBOT:ZN1!Education
by gorx1
I Smell a Santa Claus RallyWith inflationary expectations low, a decrease in CPI and Core CPI, a likely slowing in interest rate hikes, there's too much positive news in the short term to ignore the likelihood of a near-term rally. Still, some hinges on Jerome Powell's outlook tomorrow, but I expect him to keep language as soft as his last speech. Last month, he was still very domineering in his tone on inflation, but the last FOMC meeting was much softer. I expect that again with inflation ticking down as proof of low inflationary expectations. I mean, you can hear people freaking out about the economy everywhere. I don't think inflationary expectations are high lol. Listen to his last speech and you can hear a dramatic tone shift. Here's last FOMC Press Meeting After rate hike in mid November: www.brookings.edu HARD LANGUAGE Here's his "Inflation and the Labor Market" speech on 11/30: www.youtube.com SOFT LANGUAGE Long term? You'll have to look at my first post to see that. Enjoy, and you can find a link to an Economic Release calendar down below for you to save. InTheMoney
TVC:NDQLong
by InTheMoneyAdam
5
The Inflation of the 1980s Tells the Same Story: Pivot=DeclineI have heard both sides: 1) Historically, the Fed pivot will result in a decline in equities because they are pivoting in response to negative economic data which drags on equities, and 2) this time is different, negative economic data is positive for equites because it means inflation is on its way down. When people reference the former, for whatever reason, they don't take a look at the effective Fed Funds Rate in the high inflationary period of the late 1970's and early 80's and compare the Fed's pivot to equities. In the chart shown, you can see that once Volcker, the Chairman of the Fed, finally took a steadfast position against inflation and rose rates violently, inflation began to cool. Both in part of this raise in rates and the public's belief that Volcker had no intention of letting up, ridding the public of inflationary expectations. If you look at the charts, you can see that as inflation rose so did the markets. But as Volcker stamped his foot and pushed rates up, inflation began to cool. USIRRY, the third chart down, shows this. Equities began to decline due to this restrictive economic environment and belief the Volcker would not let up. Notice that, as a result, unemployment (bottom chart) began to rise. This had no positive impact on equities, contrary to what some might think because it would indicate inflation was being taken care of. Instead, the U.S. entered a recession and equities continued to decline. It was only once the Fed stopped lowering rates, unemployment peaked, and inflation neared their target rate did equities bottom. It is not fair to compare equities and pivots to the Great Recession or the .com Bubble, yet even in historical inflationary periods the same story plays out: the markets bottom well after the Fed pivots However, this time could be different in that Powell showed no hesitation in attacking inflation and destroying inflationary expectations. He has taken a direct lesson from history. As a result, unemployment could potentially peak faster than expected, inflation could decrease faster than expected, and equities could bottom faster than expected. I believe today's outcome will be similar to that of the early 80's, but that outcome will happen much, much faster. The markets have not bottomed in my opinion, but I expect them to in mid-late 2023. It's always best to keep equity exposure to avoid missing the bottom. Because you never know . InTheMoney
SP:SPXShort
by InTheMoneyAdam
6
Economic Outlook for 10-15 years aheadMy Economic Outlook for 10-15 years ahead The rare double-dip recession October CPI report shows Inflation slightly decreased to 7.7% and The Fed already made a statement to decrease The Fedfunds Rate. Potential Fed pivot approximately will occur in Q1 or Q2 of 2023. That will be the time of disinflationary period or maybe we are already in by now. What to be expected in disinflationary period is stock market drawdown will continue, rising unemployment, more business entities will collapse, fewer job openings, in short 2023 will be dark especially in the US. Technically it is a recession. The good news is inflation can be pushed back to 2% area and from there QE can be restarted. Most people that already tired by long economic drawdown are strongly craving for bull market. Productivity will rise again along with its economic and secondary leverage and a creeping up inflation leaving the 2% area. An inherent nature of capitalism. The question is what will be the destiny of Petrodollar as its losing control over the total international trade volume. The rapid change of global power dynamics which spearheaded by BRICS+ economy has substantially diminish the Dollar hegemony. The regional powers that have control over the world commodities are grouping up to create a new, commodity-backed currency. In addition to that there is a strongly rising tension between Russia and NATO. More than 50 years ago, the US left the Bretton-Woods System and to keep the US dollar relevant as global reserve currency, Petrodollar was introduced and rapidly embraced by the OPEC which consequently making the US Dollar became the world's most traded currency. That is the underlying value of the Dollar besides of debt. But the current astronomical $30+ Trillion of government debt and the weakening of Petrodollar globally has come to a critical question of what will be the next US decisive move? Chaos has to be applied first to disrupt any potential challenger to the US Dollar, and from there a revolutionary economic policy has to be implemented. Worst case scenario is the new Great Depression can manifest after almost 100 years since its first occurrence in 1929. Note: This economic outlook which also the same with any version of economic outlook is subject to a high degree of uncertainty. This post is mean for educational purpose only.
TVC:SPX
by derahmanov
The West Takes Aim at Russian Oil MarketsAs tensions continue to escalate between the West and Russia, a new development has emerged in the ongoing struggle over oil shipments. The West has been using shipping insurance as a tool to put pressure on Russia, but this strategy has had limited success so far. Insurance is only available for shipments valued at less than $60 a barrel, and as it happens, Russian oil already trades just below this cap. As a result, it's not yet clear how much of an impact this will have on oil prices. But this raises an interesting question: why would the West set the cap at this level? The answer, it seems, is that they've calculated it in such a way that it provides just enough incentive for Putin to keep pumping oil. This is because the West is understandably concerned that Putin might choose to remove Russian oil from the international market, causing prices to rise significantly. And if global oil prices do rise much above where they currently are, the situation could become much more heated. This is just one example of the complex dance that goes on between petronations and the West. On the one hand, the West has the ability to put pressure on petronations by limiting their access to the global market. But on the other hand, petronations have the power to put significant pressure on the West via energy prices. So it's a delicate balancing act, and it's not always clear who has the upper hand. But what does this mean for the future? Well, it's difficult to say for certain, but it's clear that the West is trying to find a way to put pressure on Russia without causing a major disruption in the global oil market. And if they're successful, it could have significant implications for the ongoing struggle between the West and Russia. Of course, there are many other factors at play here, and it's impossible to predict exactly how things will unfold. But one thing is clear: the discussion around this issue is only going to become more heated as global oil prices continue to fluctuate. So it's definitely a topic worth keeping an eye on in the coming months and years.
FX:USOIL
by JoelWarby
2
Bitcoin Trend Analytics October 28The breakout needs to be tested. $20102.02 is the support under test today. The center remains the axis of oscillation. Only by taking hold of the center for 24 hours could the price reach a height of $23780.49. When intraday support is not broken, it’ll hold up on the center several times. Otherwise, it’ll break down to $19600.41. The market expected interest rate hike in November: 75bp(81.4%),50bp(18.6%) Interest rate hikes are expected to slow down from December.
by BitMidas
Mid term electionsIn June’s masterclass I suggested the bottom of the crypto market wasn’t yet in. Since then a 40% mid bear cycle pump was profited from. Now we have a situation where volatility on the BBWP is at one of its most contracted states ever seen. Which heavily suggests a huge macro move pending. The world’s markets have been propped up for months... from Evergrand in China to Deutsche bank in Germany, or Credit Suisse in Switzerland and the Gilts in the UK. America has sold almost 90% of their strategic oil supplies just to get the price of fuel down to curb rising inflation and outrageously the definition of recession has been rewritten so as to ignore 2 quarters of negative GDP growth Oh... and repo market lending is reaching volumes similar to 2008 and 2020!! I am suggesting that the midterm election is of utmost importance to the Biden administration. Where 435 seats in the House of Representatives, and 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate are up for grabs. If the democrats lose the Senate then executive orders will be contested and historic mal decisions can be investigated, Inclusive of Hunter Biden’s laptop!! If the true state of the world economy was known by voters their decision making would be very different I believe. AFTER THE 8th WILL SOMETHING BREAK (MAYBE A GERMAN BANK?), WILL THE MARKETS CAPITULATE?, THE FED PIVOT? AND ASSETS BENEFIT FROM THE 18 MONTHS OF ANOTHER ROUND OF STIMULUS? WILL THIS PLAY OUT THE SAME WAY AS THE LAST MIDTERM ELECTIONS AND WE SEE AN 83% CORRECTION FROM BOTTOM TO TOP FINDING SUPPORT AT 12K WHICH HAS BEEN HISTORIC RESISTANCE? If this plays out it will be one of the best buying opportunities in crypto history. If it doesn't it is one of the best buying opportunities in crypto history!!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by MrGoose83
Bitcoin Trend Analytics October 21All the resistances are diverted downward. BTC keeps chopping. BTC runs in a narrow range, formulating a consolidation before a breakout. Breaking up the first intraday resistance for 4-8 hours will the chop come to an end; breaking up the 2nd intraday resistance for 4-8 hours will it gather more strength. Breaking down the intraday support will the price fall down further. Now BTC is under pressure. Before breaking up $19920.03, BTC runs under pressure. Taking hold of it for 24 hours, short-term bulls will drive the price up. It’s still a battleground today. The market expected interest rate hike in November: 75bp(97.5%),50bp(2.5%)
by BitMidas
2
BTC - Almost Halfway Through The Accumulation E've been comparing recent BTC capitulation and now accumulation at the lows with the one in 2015. They are very similar in accumulation structure as well a how deep both capitulations went. Don't get me wrong, i don't thing this is a true bottom formation like it was in 2015 leading to the next bull run, but only forming a local bottom that just happens to be very similar as one in 2015. After completing this accumulation i still expect BTC will go into a retracement that can still take us slowly back in 45-50k area, before continuing the falL. From the comparison with todays price action wth the 2015 one, we can also expect btc to still reach the top of the range, make even higher local high (green box) and still then fall down to the bottom of the range (orange box), before starting a long awaited retracement. It all depends on a macro picture of the economy by itself. Will see what the stock market does first, but charts do show a local bottom being set for now. DISCLAMER: I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. Be well.
by AVA37
4
Bitcoin Trend Analytics October 13BTC is about to leave the downward channel. If CPI is lower than expected, it will jump out of the channel; otherwise, BTC drops and prolongs the movement within the channel. Strength is contracting, cultivating a breakout that is likely to happen upon the release of CPI. Yesterday BTC ran between the speculative area at $18798.44 and intraday resistance at $19275.64. The capital inflow held the pressure from bears. This will keep going until a high volatility moment at 20:30(UTC+8). As volume shrinks, intraday support and resistance are fragile today, which is more prominent as the release time approaches. Use today’s intraday target points prudently. The expected CPI figure is 8.1%: if data <8.1%, BTC rebounds If data >8.1%, BTC drops If data =8.1%, BTC goes sideway The market expected interest rate hike in November: 75bp(15.2%),50bp(84.8%)
by BitMidas
1
Bitcoin Trend Analytics October 10BTC is about to leave the downward channel with the highest slope. After that, the trend will develop into new patterns. It is likely to keep fluctuating based on the current data. Strength is contracting, cultivating a breakout. $19882.81 is still a battleground, the price will oscillate around it, today concentrating between $19109.09-$19882.81. (breaking down $19109.09 will it drop to $18489.00; breaking up $19882.81 will it rise to $20454.33.) Short-term pressure remains, with shrinking liquidity and act of cautiousness. Speculative capital mostly concentrates between $18798.44-$19108.80. So monitor this area closely - if it’s broken, the price would slide further downward. The market expected interest rate hike in November: 75bp(82%),50bp(18%)
by BitMidas
1
An October perspective. 50%-67% drop potential. Worse case -94%As you can see each time we reached the first week of October we dropped a few times before going up But there are a few exceptions to consider. October 2020 up until 2021 was a year of stimulus checks. Many people who got them made sometimes more with the checks than their actual jobs. The last major rally was due to many factors. One major factor was Btc halving and the hype around it. but I will keep this short. But the key Octobers you want to be paying attention to are those in the year 2018 to 2019. These years we had interest rates from the fed at just 2.5% at its peak. As interest rates rose, Eth reacted negatively and also did BTC. To make matters worse., The macro environment of today is much worse than in 2018. Interest rates are expected to reach 4.5% by Dec. Also Russia's cuttings off oil to Europe as winter comes closer could cause people to not be able to afford risky assets while they focus on putting more of their money into other alternatives to stay warm. Now some will say BUT Look, 2018 RALLIED after the drop. Sure but this is more about rallies in October. I see no reason to be bullish this October with current macros. We cannot even compare 2018 to today's world, and things are just getting worse. I stand firm with my short position thesis for now. 50%-67% drop potential. Worse case 94% from ath (UNLIKELY)
Short
by Dtrader2020
4