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Macroeconomics

Cash Isn't Trash? Ray Dalio, legendary investor and founder of the world’s largest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, coined the term “cash is trash”. However, arguably over the past 8 months cash has weathered the economic storm the best, with the dollar being the strongest among the major currencies. This week we saw examples of multiple fiat currencies taking severe hits against the dollar. The Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which measures the strength of the dollar relative to six other currencies, reached its highest level since 2002 this week. The Turkish Lira was reported to have experienced annual inflation of 78.6% – the highest in 24 years resulting in a 3% decline against the dollar. Europe’s continued energy crisis has resulted in the euro also approaching parity with the dollar, with a 3.5% fortnight decline as investors seek safety. Argentinians have been trying to escape the Argentinian peso by swapping into Tether (USDT) as their economic minister was replaced by a candidate perceived to be less concerned with their 60% inflation. When denominated in Argentinian pesos, this drove the price of USDT up by over 12% from before the replacement. However, it is not all good news for Tether. USDT’s market capitalisation has taken a hit over the past two months, falling from $83 billion, at the beginning of May, by 19% to $66 billion. Meanwhile, Circle’s USD Coin (USDC) continues to make new all-time highs in market capitalization reaching $55 billion this week – suggesting we may have a stablecoin flippening on the horizon. Increasing energy costs combined with the declining bitcoin price has led miners to attempt to strengthen their balance sheets throughout the second quarter of 2022. In aggregate, miners sold more than the amount they mined in May and Core Scientific, who was the largest publicly traded bitcoin miner in terms of bitcoin holdings, released news this week that they have sold 7,202 bitcoin during June. This sale has reduced their holdings by 79% to cover debt repayments and invest in their infrastructure. Bitfarms also sold 3,000 BTC in June – reducing their holdings by 47%. Compass Mining was also reported to have lost one of its facilities due to not making electricity payments and hosting fees to its facility owner. Bitcoin miners are the most susceptible to the asset’s price swings with their revenue and profit margins being derived from bitcoin’s price. During a bull market, miners’ objective is to hold as much bitcoin as possible – increasing the value of their asset base and enabling them to raise additional finance. This incentive is even greater for publicly-traded miners as the value of their shares can also increase in tandem as their balance sheet grows. During bull markets, this acts as a positive and mitigates new coins entering the market acting as sell-side liquidity – prolonging the bull market and resulting in potentially higher valuations for bitcoin and thus the miner’s balance sheets. Conversely, when bitcoin is declining during a bear market, miners’ safest and most sustainable option is to sell their rewards for cash to pay debt repayments and operational expenses. They may also sell the bitcoin held in their treasuries, as seen over the past quarter, to ensure they have sufficient liquidity. During bear markets, this acts as additional selling pressure dampening price further and prolonging the decline as miners capitulate. The decreased demand for mining equipment, that miners classify as assets on their balance sheets, also causes them to suffer. Some miners utilise their equipment as collateral to access additional financing. When the demand and value of the equipment declines, they are required to post additional collateral to back their loans. This is a problem for participants who do not have access to additional cash – driving them to sell their assets, in most cases the bitcoin held in their treasuries. Alternatively, they can become increasingly levered and take on more debt with less attractive terms to pay off previous debt. It is reported there is $4 billion worth of these equipment-backed loans demonstrating the fragility of the industry if prices continue to fall. These factors appear to have contributed to the decline we have seen over the past quarter leading to bitcoin’s worst-performing quarter since 2011. The main question is whether miners will have sufficient income and cash reserves to survive further downside. The demise of less financially sound miners could lead to the consolidation of the industry. The most capitalised may survive and acquire the smaller entities whilst their valuations are reduced. In the long run, this could prove to be a benefit, leading to more financially strong miners potentially holding increased amounts of coins – further limiting additional coins from being sold on the market by retaining more of their rewards. Bitcoin’s hash rate, the total computing power dedicated to bitcoin mining, reached a new all time high of 237 EH/s in June, since then it has declined by approximately 15%. Bitcoin’s difficulty adjustment, a measurement of how hard miners need to compete for block rewards and is derived from the hash rate, dropped by 1.41% over the past two weeks and declined 2.35% the two weeks before that, suggesting mining activity is on the decline. Reviewing this could provide a good gauge of overall miner participation and some insight into the health of Bitcoin’s mining infrastructure. The miners’ short term move to cash may prove to be the wisest decision to survive these pessimistic times. However, over the long-run the trajectory of bitcoin’s price has demonstrated it is the superior asset in growing and preserving wealth. The next Bitcoin halving, less than two years away, will also affect the economics of mining. Miners will seek lower energy costs, increased efficiency of their machines and a higher bitcoin price to outweigh the lower block rewards. Until we see some strength in the price of bitcoin, maybe cash isn’t trash.
TVC:DXY
by Coinrule
Factors currently influencing the CHF and opportunitiesThe Swiss Franc has seen some crazy moves since April. In the last quarter, we saw the CHF weaken on the onset of the Russian invasion. Then the SNB raised rates by whooping 50 bps for the first time in years. This led the Swiss government bond yields to spike with USDCHF weakened in days. Since then, speculators have pulled back rate hike bets in the face of an economic growth slowdown in Europe. with the Swiss 2 year bond yields back below 0%. So what does this mean for Swiss Franc crosses? USDCHF I expect the currency to weaken against the USD as traders bet that the Fed will maintain their tightening policy until inflation is below their 2% target. AUDCHF The RBA is also on a tightening cycle with the RBA expected to hike rates further to the end of 2022. In addition to this, the Australian economy seems to be resilient with data coming out of the country being strong. China's PBOC and CCP support for the economy is expected to provide support for the Aussie. CADCHF The oil linked Loonie is having support from higher energy prices and a BoC that is also on a rate hiking cycle. Technically speaking, the pair has gone back above the 100Day moving average and I expect it to test the cluster resistance level 0.769xx from 2014-2019 Other pairs that are interesting are: CHFJPY Major risk to short-selling the pair is that bond yield differentials are expected to remain high hence JPY strength looks like a long shot for Q3 NZDJPY Recovery of the Chinese economy is going to support the commodity-linked Kiwi. However, strength of the pair is not expected to be higher than that of the AUDCHF Summary CHF weakness brings a lot of opportunities. However, it's important to note that tailrisk to these trades exist. In the current environment, FX volatility is high and could wipe you out. Be safe out there
Long
by GrizzlyBearBee
3
Bitcoin's Multiple Descending Wedge Setups provoking Rally?Macroeconomic backdrop:: With sentiment in markets rising slightly from peak fear, due to recession fear provoked significant pull backs in commodity prices. Providing a likely reprieve in expected rising inflation concerns. This might in turn, influence central bank interest rate decision makers, too slow the rate in which they hike rates. Although we can only speculate on their desired intensity to crush demand, growth and inflation. We can assume that some decision makers, will look for the right opportunity to ensure slowing growth rates globally do not over extend downwards. Likely pausing or slowing the tightening measure as inflation falls. This could provide the macro set up for a bear market rally to occur. Bitcoin Long Trade:: In the short term we see a relatively small neutral wedge. The upside currently being tested at the time of this published idea. I believe that a breakout will occur to the upside, made viable by neutral to slightly rallying equity prices. The next significant resistance will be the bearish descending turquoise resistance line, that has been created from April and June significant rejections. This resistance line will be bolstered slightly by the falling 50 day moving average, which is lying close to this turquoise trend line. Depending on the macro and equity set up at the time when/if BTC's price enters the orange circle area. Further progression to the upside or a strong rejection will occur. Although bear market sentiment might suggest the case for a rejection is more probable, a short squeeze could allow odd price action to occur. This trade idea is enveloped in the larger descending orange wedge line. That might suggest a controlled further fall in this bear market. I believe that it will remain resistance if the global macro climate continuous to tighten, regardless of worries of over tightening and causing significant recessions. Significant recessions might will naturally correlate with significant job losses. Further degrading global production levels and decreasing supply. It doesn't take a crystal ball or goats entrails, to forecast the enlarged social welfare programs that will arise to support the unfortunate of us that will lose our jobs, due to over vigorous tightening. Best of Luck in your trading!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by FortunaAlgoAnalytics
EURCHF breaks below parity. A further drop expectedThe last time this pair dropped below parity, investors chose the CHF over the Euro. However, the SNB was worried about the deflationary aspects of such a move and acted to reverse the move. This time, the fundamentals are more or less the same or different depending on how you interpret it. The Euro zone investors are worried about the block tipping into a recession due to high energy costs. In Germany, for example, regulators have warned that entire industries could come to a halt should Russia fail to reopen the Nordstream 1 pipeline gas flows. The Yamal pipeline has also seen huge drops in gas supplies. With this in mind for Euro fundamentals, the question remains whether the SNB is going to do anything. A stronger CHF is definitely going to the reduce inflationary pressures for Switzerland. In my opinion, I expect the pair to head lower toward the Jan '15 bottom. Risks to trade Historically, strong moves in one direction tend to reverse with similar momentum. The EURO - SWISS bond yield spreads show that the downward move may not be sustainable since FX tends to move in lockstep to spreads The SNB raised rates by a whooping 50bps for the first time in a long time. In typical fashion, Swiss bond yields jumped, some out of negative territory. However, the yields have retraced most of their earlier moves. This may imply that the markets are pricing that the SNB will not raise rates as much in the face of a recession in Europe. This might reduce the strength of the CHF with weakness showing up in the USDCHF. PS: I already have an open position ( This is not trading advice) With that in consideration, I'll be short the Euro for Q3.
Short
by GrizzlyBearBee
Full Fundamental & Technical Analysis - BTC We are living in arguably the most interesting time for all financial markets. Some economists, politicians, and business entities know the saying: “when America sneezes, the world catches a cold.” Now, no matter how you interpret this statement the U.S accounted for over 20% of the expansion in world RGDP during the past two decades. Moreover, U.S' correlation coefficient for Economic Growth compared with the rest of the world is over 0.8 (impying great significance). Thereby, I will use U.S bonds throughout my analysis to explain price changes in BTC. Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies are classified as high risk and volatile trading assets, and therefore the value/price of these digital assets is greatly exposed to exterior influences (news, Elon Musk's Tweets, and etc...). The chart above shows the Log(BTC): - Breaking-out it's long-term channel - Successfully retesting it's old support line (or new resistance) - Starting a new Bearish trend For Retest Zone 1: Global Investors' confidence has been decreasing. For maximisation of relevant content I have only attached Investor Confidence Index as proof. www.statestreet.com Macro analysis may potentially explain these changes: *** Short-term bond yield reflects Fed's Monetary Policy changes *** Long-term bond yield mirrors Inflation *** The Spread is the difference between the yield rate in the two bonds (10-2)yr From above we may derive: - Inflation's impact on Fed's interest rate policy - 4 cycles of an economy - Some use for predicting recessions Looking at the chart we are at risk of going into a recession. This analysis stresses the extent to which Macroeconomic indicators are important in explaining, evaluating, and predicting Investors' confidence. “Historically, a US recession tends to follow a year after the curve inverts, though the variance is large and there are occasional false positives,” said Priya Misra, head of global rates strategy at TD Securities. (Financial Times, APRIL 6 2022) Evidence of impact on BTC: (using average volume as an indicator of investors' confidence) When BTC's average volume started gradually decreasing - the 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread reversed direction, and started heading down to 0 (Figure 1). BTC dropped by almost 75% (from ATH) at the same time the spread dropped with great momentum (Figure 2). Figure 1: Figure 2: This is my first TradingView Idea, I'd really appreciate some feedback :) I enjoyed making this post and plan to conduct further analyses on retest 2 shown on the charts above (current retest). Thanks for your time! Stay safe
CRYPTOCAP:BTC
by Sanzhar_m
2
Opportunities aboundSo the 10Y Yield (USA) has a fib time zone that places a strong move in the afternoon of the 30th of this month. I feel like it goes without saying but this is when Q2 ends and if we have another quarter with a negative GDP - thanks to the braindead president's apocalyptic ineptitude - then we will enter a recession which for those unawares is just two quarters of negative GDP growth. This is also the date when the Personal Consumption Price Index data will drop which will give us a read on inflation. This particular index is the one that the FED favors for their inflation data. Needless to say this is going to be a huge huge move. I honestly cant imagine that the PCE is going to be in any way reassuring and I cant imagine that Q2 was profitable. The majority of rate hiking initiatives end in a recession and Powell was frankly far from reassuring when he said in the FOMC meeting that a softish landing is not guaranteed. Not a soft landing isn't guaranteed. A softISH. Without sounding like somebody's English teacher here reading a shit poem, this use of language shows where Powell - with his bedroom walls smothered with portraits of Paul Volcker - is at. He is clearly thinking - and has explicitly stated - that getting inflation under control is the top priority as much as this will be at the expense of the economy and the American people's purse which to the pessimist means purposefully inducing a recession. We should couple this with the fact that atm the downtrend in the SPX has been a pretty orderly sell off and hasn't really had that black candle to hell that we get from a major capitulation which is imo inevitable and the 30th would be absolutely perfect for that capitulation event so hold onto your hats folks and open shorts. As for Bitcoin though we are at an interesting and slightly unnerving crossroads. BTC was created in the wake of the 2008 Financial Crisis and since then the economy has been relatively ok in the most part. So if BTC fails 20k and falls below, not only does it fall below the previous market high which will be unprecedented in over a decade of its existence but also it will show that its not above a recession and will put the nail in the coffin in the "store of value" and "digital gold" camp for the foreseeable future and instead BTC will have proven not to fulfil its goal of being a currency that's recession and inflation proof and it will prove that it is just a speculative asset and a fad that will fade into nonexistence and the study of economics and computer science classes decades from now (probably taught in Russian). If it wasn't for the fact that a recession is unprecedently for BTC and that one seems inevitable, then I would be very bullish on BTC rn but I just cant afford to be. I do hope however that this will actually be the spark that ignites bull run and a decoupling from the stock market. This seems like an obvious time to be accumulating gold, silver and rubles and opening big fat shorts on the SPX. But this will definitely be a big oppurtunity for those will the balls and the brains to seize it if for the bullish or the bearish (more likely the latter imo).
TVC:US10Y
by Augustus_Flavius_IV
Terra FalloutArguably the number one saying to always avoid uttering in investing is “This time is different”. Usually, it is related to overly optimistic bullish expectations of future market highs due to global adoption finally taking place. Ironically, as this cycle continues it is proving to be different… In all prior market cycles, bitcoin never rested or went below the previous all-time high during following bear markets. Last weekend, however, we saw bitcoin cascade through the previous all-time high via a savage 6% decline within a 5-minute candle – reaching a low of approximately $17,600. A potential catalyst for the sudden drop was significant outflows from bitcoin funds on Friday 17th June, with the Canadian Purpose Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) experiencing its investors redeem approximately 24,500 bitcoin or 51% of its holdings. The majority of ETF investors are institutions, with the inflows and outflows from these funds giving a good gauge of the institutional sentiment around bitcoin and risk assets in general. The drop was also contributed to by the developing contagion from the Terra debacle. The demise of Terra has continued to claim victims who just a few months ago were renowned as being market leaders in their fields. Most notably this includes Celcius and Three Arrows Capital (3AC). These two previously regarded behemoths have come under heavy fire from the declining market prices. The depressed prices have further impacted their low liquidity and highly leveraged balance sheets. Celsius halted all $8 billion worth of deposits from being withdrawn from their platform and 3AC was allegedly liquidated by FTX, Deribit and Bitmex due to them failing to provide additional capital for their poorly performing leveraged positions. Voyager, a crypto exchange, was also affected by 3AC’s demise with them still being owed 15,250 bitcoin and $350 million by the fund. News of this caused Voyager’s stock to cascade 40% lower on Wednesday accompanied by their token depreciating by 25%. However, as one giant falls another grows. Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) has become somewhat of a liquidity-providing guardian angel for the crypto industry, with loans of $250 million to BlockFi, a centralised lending platform, and 15,000 bitcoin to Voyager via FTX and Alameda Research. Both of these entities SBF founded. FTX US has also utilised the depreciating market prices as an opportunity to sweeten their product offering through the acquisition of Embed Financial, an equities clearing firm that will provide custody and execution for FTX US’s newly launched feature to trade stocks – showcasing their eagerness to expand into alternative markets outside of crypto. Looking at the technical side, bitcoin appears to have found a range to consolidate within for the meantime, with support on the previous all-time high of approximately $19,800 and resistance around $21,300. Breaking out of the range, and making significant progress, may prove to be a challenge for bulls with the 200-week moving average looming overhead at around $23,300. The question on all traders’ minds is how long will this range hold and if $17,600 will be our local bottom for the foreseeable future? With the Federal Reserve’s Chairman Powell reiterating their hawkish stance and view for the increasing crypto regulation at Wednesday’s Senate Banking Committee hearing, it sounds like the potential relief we have seen over the past week should not be taken for granted. Additionally, further developments in the Terra fallout may be discovered further along the currently illiquid crypto path. This dark cloud will most likely keep all market participants with their tap-dancing shoes on and treading lightly as we further navigate these apocalyptic times.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Coinrule
BTC: Don't DCA YetMacro conditions couldn’t be any worse. Starting this month, the Fed unleashed its quantitative tightening (QT) plans, trimming the $9trillion balance sheet at an unprecedented scale (current run-off cap: $47.5bn/month initial; $95bn/month 3 month later; 2017 run-off: max $50bn/month). The last two quantitative tightening led to a sharp rise in yields in 2013 and a repo crisis in 2019 respectively. Unfortunately, this time around, the Fed has to deal with a much larger balance sheet and all-time high inflation rate since 1982. Without the ability to print real world supply of goods and services (factories, natural resources), the Fed has lever on the demand side, but lowering demand means hikes in unemployment (which the Fed is already targeting). With a 7% gap between short-term rate and inflation rate, can the Fed “just rise unemployment a little bit” without causing a recession? Extremely hard unless real world supply of goods and services picks up. For us crypto traders and investors, the question is - isn’t bitcoin an inflation hedge, and if global market enters a recession, wouldn’t bitcoin be the risk-off asset of choice? My take on this is not in this cycle. Bitcoin has not experienced a proper traditional finance bear market yet and has performed poorly during past tapering and quantitative tightening environments. Different phases of quantitative easing, tapering, and quantitative tightening are marked on the chart above. After three rounds of quantitative easing from 2010, the start of tapering in 2014 marked the beginning of bitcoin’s 2-year bear market. In 2017, quantitative tightening started in October, and the 2018 crypto crash soon followed. In other words, bitcoin’s inflation hedge narrative hasn’t been officially tested or widely accepted. With arbitrage opportunities, scams, hack risks, and run-on-bank fear, the crypto market is no doubt in its early stage. While superior security and scarcity give bitcoin the potential to replace gold in a new era of currency, early-stage demand side volatility makes bitcoin subject to wild price swings. The current reality is we see rising correlation between bitcoin and the equity market year after year, and the volatility is further heightened by the derivative market. In the current cycle, bitcoin’s inflation hedge value is overpowered by its volatility, and it is hard for bitcoin to rally under gloomy global macro conditions before the market matures and stabilizes. Do you agree? What’s your take on crypto under the current global macro? Support and comment below!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Phi-Deltalytics
18
Bitcoin needs to break the 200 week!Hello Friends! Traditional markets are closed tomorrow (6/20/22) and BTC might have an extra day for some positive gains/reaction rally. Be careful here, the macroeconomics are not supporting crypto or traditional markets. Let’s look at some levels to watch. The 200 week ($22350) is the biggest level for BTC to target in the short term. $19,800 (December 2017 high) must be held to support any traction up towards testing the 200 week. If $19,800 can hold support, keep an eye on $21,940 on its way to the 200 week. Also, keep in mind that this current drop is coming off a massive bear flag break. If this flag plays out fully, BTC can further drop to the $12K to $14K zone. As always thanks for your follows, likes, and comments. Let’s learn and grow together. Cheers! *This information and publication is not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice. Do your own research.
by MoneyFishing
Bitcoin Sell Off Realistic Price Deep DiveFinancial markets plummeting and macroeconomics hit with a torrent of shocking news what does this mean for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies? Before jumping into Bitcoins (BTC) price analysis it is important to understand the top reasons why markets are falling at an accelerated rate. Inflation throughout the world is at record highs with inflation in United States of America at its highest in 40 years 8.6% Interest rates are rising sharply with Fed increasing interest rates by 75 basis points this week the largest since 1994. Dollar strength index DXY is steadily increasing indicating investors are moving money out of risk assets to less risky ones e.g. bonds & cash Specifically, to cryptocurrency markets the crash of Terra’s $LUNA and $UST combined $50 billion spooked investors and raised concerns. Rumours of Celsius and Three Arrows Capital insolvency due to large exposure with Terra assets which leads questions to which other cryptos will fall in the domino effect creating further sell off panic. Many countries announcing and investigating new cryptocurrency regulations and laws. (Subscribe here to be notified of articles on latest regulations) Fear and greed index is at all time-lows of 7 this week and below extreme fear levels for the last month. Cryptocurrency total market capitalization has dropped from all time high of $3 trillion to below $1 trillion a $2 trillion decline in a few months. Specifically, Bitcoin has experienced 9 weeks of price decline the first time in history and continues with effectively 11 weeks of price decline. Bitcoin price has retraced below its previous all-time high for the first time. With the global financial market scene set above we can expect the following BTC price action in the near future. Looking at the area in box number one on my technical analysis chart above. Bitcoin weekly candle close broke 0.382 Fibonacci support level $28500 to the downside. 200 Day weekly moving average a significant indicator (green line) which has proven to be historical support for previous bear markets and signalling bottoms has breached $22000 level this week for the first time. In confluence price has fallen out of current trending channel illustrated as two yellow upward parallel lines. What does this mean for Bitcoins price and key levels? Next level of support which needs to hold is 0.236 Fibonacci around $19000 to prevent further downside. Sell off at $19000 level will take Bitcoin to the next significant level of interest by investors the $10000 red line in box number two. Failing the above levels of support $3000 is a very real possibility as final bottom since we have seen most significant key levels decimated over the past few weeks due to macroeconomic conditions. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below and if you would like to know what this means for altcoins in your portfolio. Till then stay safe and always remember to apply appropriate risk management to your investments. Legendary Investment Trader, Cryptocurrency & Web3 Master Boundless Lord
by boundless_lord
Long Bitcoin into this Volatility Spike It makes sense to Long Bitcoin Now that Volatility is finally spiking. Remember, Bitcoin has been on a consistent downtrend in volatility for years now. So nothing will change given the amounts in which more institutions invest; Volaitly will have to continue to go down due to price transparency in the marketplace. The opportunity I see here is to go long Bitcoin whenever volatility gets out of whack; people get scared, sure, but in reality, buying that volatility is betting that volatility 6-12 months from now will be much, much lower. The last time this happened bitcoin went from 9000 to 61000. My price target is at 78000-96000 within the next 6-12 months. Thanks for the time and good luck!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by v1equity
Relief Rally?Hello Traders, I will get straight to the point today. It looks like a bit of a reversal, or is it a bear market relief rally? What I'm looking at: If price moves above around 408.80-409.5 and keeps momentum, watch out for a gap up around 412. This is likely a relief rally, and we are probably just reverting to back to the trend because we were QUITE a bit oversold, but we are seeing a low volume move upward. Like I said before to those who follow me here and elsewhere, the downtrend is weakening, but lets not get ahead of ourselves. This isn't like after COVID hit or March '09 (the month the Bull market was reborn), we LIKELY won't have a recovery like that without a catalyst (i.e. Ukraine war end, steep inflation drop, steep oil demand decline/supply increase -aka priced too high/Saudi production increase). Technically speaking, we're hitting a small supply zone around 406 it might push back down a little then move upward to keep the trend pattern going. Around 410.90 another Supply zone on the chart. We don't hit the big ones until 417+ but I don't think it's likely we'll make it up that far. I'm getting a little ahead in this prediction, but this is for preparation for my followers or anyone who needs a little guidance. Cheers, Mike (UPRIGHT Trading)
AMEX:SPY
by UPRIGHTTrading
BTC Macros - Where is bitcoin heading?Whats up eveybody. Just wanted to make a quick update on the macros of BTC, where do we see a possible bottom. We know that BTC and USDT dominance have a strong correlation. We can see on the left chart that dominance is approaching a strong resistance at about 5.5%. We can have a double top there and dominance goes down, BTC goes up. On the right chart we have BTC on a log chart with the Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curves & Zones indicator which has been very accurate when BTC hits the last bands. historically we can see that it always held and bounced from the last bands. As we can see now we are approaching these same bands now giving a big support on BTC price. So having this in mind and seeing the USDT dominance also approaching a big resistance, we can see that the zone between 25k-30k is a strong support where BTC can potentially bounce from there. Let me know your thoughts on this, where do you guys think BTC bouncing point is? Cheers!!!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by sweeezy
Prediction of 4 Scenarios from Fed's decision on BTC From what I've managed to gather, 7 out of 9 governors vote for a +50bp hike; 8 out of 9 are in favor of reducing B/S. If the news to be released in 3.5 hours comes out with reducing balance sheet, which is likely to take effect in June, then highly likely we’ll see a black swan. +50bp is within expectation, but it’s still negative to the market. We can expect a pull back in 1-3 days but it’s not strong enough to reverse as liquidity is under the pressure of flowing out… Welcome your comment and ideas. Viva la Bitcoin. Safe trading, frens.
by BitMidas
2
US30Y: Rising Yield as the expectation of Rising Interest Rate?U.S. Inflation has surged significantly to 8.5% in March 2022, It hits a new forty-year high. As the Inflation keeps increasing month over month, The Federal Reserve is committed to tackling inflation by Rising Interest Rate, potentially 0.50% in May 2022. The rising interest rate will cause bond prices to fall. Consequently, The Bond yield will be increased. Chart Perspective: US 30 Years Government Bond Yield (US30Y) has broken out of the falling wedge pattern. US30Y is also accompanied by a golden cross on the MACD indicator. We conclude from the macro and chart perspective, That is a potential bullish outlook for US 30 Years Treasury Yield. The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the support/target area. *Disclaimer: The outlook is only used for Educational Purposes, The Creator doesn't responsible for any of your trade position or other financial decisions*
TVC:US30YLong
by financialfreedomgoals101
2
Global vision of BTC according to Market Phases TheoryHey mates, When the market behaves unexpectedly and many people lose their money it is the best time to calm down and take a look at the market globally and historically. Market Phases Theory comes from the roots of the Dow Jones theory of Stock Market Cycles. Basically, all markets are passing 4 constant market phases: 1. accumulation 2. uptrend or markup 3. distribution 4. downtrend or markdown Before making any decisions it's crucial to understand where we are now and we do we go. Let's use the method of elimination. So, today, on April 12th, we are obviously not in the Uptrend or Advancing phase. We are not in the Distribution phase too. Are we in a Downtrend or Declining Phase? Maybe, because 6 months ago we hit All-Time-High. Maybe not, because we are still in a macro bullish trend since 2020, for 2 years by now: higher lows - higher highs. Are we in Accumulation Phase? Highly probable. Take a look at the Chart. After a rapid downtrend, we stopped at a particular level of 33000-34000, and since then we're defending this level and moving to ascend. The Point-of-Control of the last 18 months shows us an important accumulation level on 38888, where we are today. Of course, the global economical and political state is not optimistic, there is big tension and uncertainty. We've got a Black Swan of Russian Military Aggression on Ukraine and the whole world. The US is trying to fix things it was done by printing unlimited money and ignoring inflation risks. So there are a lot of factors that can bring us to a continuous downtrend leading to the bottom of nowhere. But until we're in a macro ascending trend and holding above 35000 - we may say it's still an accumulation phase. Otherwise, we would say about degrading market and falling under 30000.
by nefyodov.artyom
1