Whatever your long term count, we just hit a golden zone.Pull from any major pivot and you get the same thing, golden zone. Does its really get much better? Plenty of other add ons too. Accumulate.
Macroeconomics
BTC Macros - Where is bitcoin heading?Whats up eveybody.
Just wanted to make a quick update on the macros of BTC, where do we see a possible bottom.
We know that BTC and USDT dominance have a strong correlation. We can see on the left chart that dominance is approaching a strong resistance at about 5.5%. We can have a double top there and dominance goes down, BTC goes up.
On the right chart we have BTC on a log chart with the Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curves & Zones indicator which has been very accurate when BTC hits the last bands. historically we can see that it always held and bounced from the last bands. As we can see now we are approaching these same bands now giving a big support on BTC price. So having this in mind and seeing the USDT dominance also approaching a big resistance, we can see that the zone between 25k-30k is a strong support where BTC can potentially bounce from there.
Let me know your thoughts on this, where do you guys think BTC bouncing point is?
Cheers!!!
Prediction of 4 Scenarios from Fed's decision on BTC From what I've managed to gather, 7 out of 9 governors vote for a +50bp hike; 8 out of 9 are in favor of reducing B/S.
If the news to be released in 3.5 hours comes out with reducing balance sheet, which is likely to take effect in June, then highly likely we’ll see a black swan.
+50bp is within expectation, but it’s still negative to the market. We can expect a pull back in 1-3 days but it’s not strong enough to reverse as liquidity is under the pressure of flowing out…
Welcome your comment and ideas.
Viva la Bitcoin.
Safe trading, frens.
US30Y: Rising Yield as the expectation of Rising Interest Rate?U.S. Inflation has surged significantly to 8.5% in March 2022, It hits a new forty-year high. As the Inflation keeps increasing month over month, The Federal Reserve is committed to tackling inflation by Rising Interest Rate, potentially 0.50% in May 2022. The rising interest rate will cause bond prices to fall. Consequently, The Bond yield will be increased.
Chart Perspective:
US 30 Years Government Bond Yield (US30Y) has broken out of the falling wedge pattern. US30Y is also accompanied by a golden cross on the MACD indicator.
We conclude from the macro and chart perspective, That is a potential bullish outlook for US 30 Years Treasury Yield.
The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the support/target area.
*Disclaimer: The outlook is only used for Educational Purposes, The Creator doesn't responsible for any of your trade position or other financial decisions*
Global vision of BTC according to Market Phases TheoryHey mates,
When the market behaves unexpectedly and many people lose their money it is the best time to calm down and take a look at the market globally and historically.
Market Phases Theory comes from the roots of the Dow Jones theory of Stock Market Cycles. Basically, all markets are passing 4 constant market phases:
1. accumulation
2. uptrend or markup
3. distribution
4. downtrend or markdown
Before making any decisions it's crucial to understand where we are now and we do we go. Let's use the method of elimination.
So, today, on April 12th, we are obviously not in the Uptrend or Advancing phase. We are not in the Distribution phase too.
Are we in a Downtrend or Declining Phase? Maybe, because 6 months ago we hit All-Time-High. Maybe not, because we are still in a macro bullish trend since 2020, for 2 years by now: higher lows - higher highs.
Are we in Accumulation Phase? Highly probable.
Take a look at the Chart. After a rapid downtrend, we stopped at a particular level of 33000-34000, and since then we're defending this level and moving to ascend.
The Point-of-Control of the last 18 months shows us an important accumulation level on 38888, where we are today.
Of course, the global economical and political state is not optimistic, there is big tension and uncertainty.
We've got a Black Swan of Russian Military Aggression on Ukraine and the whole world.
The US is trying to fix things it was done by printing unlimited money and ignoring inflation risks.
So there are a lot of factors that can bring us to a continuous downtrend leading to the bottom of nowhere.
But until we're in a macro ascending trend and holding above 35000 - we may say it's still an accumulation phase. Otherwise, we would say about degrading market and falling under 30000.
EURNZD - Macroeconomic, Global Macro...What I observe from technical analysis is that they have corrected the imbalance that was generated on Monday, and that they will go a little farther UP, at which time I will wait and ride with them.
If it hasn't reached that stage, I'm not expecting anything. After that, I'll embark on a market exploitation spree.
For the time being, I have a very solid figure for this currency pair, and we will see how the market plays out.
Everyone should have a wonderful time and good luck.
ADA EXITs the short-term ascending channelAfter a rapid growth following a full cup and handle pattern mattress, Cardano grew as sharply as expected. Following the negative fundamental news that caused a TVL 18% decrease, Cardano left the ascending channel and is expected to return to the top of cup.
Some of the negative macroeconomic news is as follows:
1-CHINA REPORTS 8,655 NEW CORONAVIRUS CASES, BIGGEST ONE-DAY INCREASE ON RECORD
2-ECB PRESIDENT LAGARDE: EUROPE IS ENTERING A DIFFICULT PHASE
3-FRANCE INFLATION JUMPS TO 5.1% IN MARCH, HIGHEST LEVEL ON RECORD
4-U.S. CORE PCE INFLATION JUMPS 5.4% IN FEBRUARY, LARGEST ANNUAL INCREASE SINCE 1983
5-EUROPEAN STOCKS SUFFER FIRST LOSING QUARTER IN TWO YEARS AS RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR, INFLATION FEARS RATTLE SENTIMENT
EURNZD - Macroeconomic, Global Macro...Prior to two weeks ago, I was looking for a new employment. I hadn't had good statistics for some weeks before to this.
However, the prior week, I received it once again...
Most of the time, when I get a foundational analysis, when I get solid statistics, and I know what should be... even if I go in SL, which is usual between Monday and Tuesday, and then already from Wednesday he is starting to travel in his direction, but it happened in 70% of the instances. That is why I have already opened a position on Monday, and I am not spending my whole day sitting in front of my computer waiting for the right opportunity for Entry, since I literally do not have that much time.
As you can see, I didn't have that type of trouble 5 weeks before on the same currency pair (EUR NZD), and we've gained more than 1500 pips in 3 weeks. That is very wonderful...
Now EUR NZD is doing the same thing, however this time I was moving my stop loss higher, till it didn't start going in the proper way...
If you understand what fundemental anaylisis is, and you see the down figures that I provide you, you will understand what I am talking about... and you will be able to see where they are going after I have posted them...
To be sure, numbers do not lie, and that is a fact :)
Thank you so much, and thank you for your confidence!
EURNZD - Macroeconomic, Global Macro...EUR is the most inflationary currency, whereas NZD is the most deflationary.
Based on Micro Bias, Global Macro Bias, and other factors... My strognerst number was never assigned to this pair....
Consequently, I will maintain my short position in the EURNZD, and based on current information, we might continue in this manner for another week...
Someone among you who has been following the previous three transactions on the EURNZD, Continue reading and don't shut your browser! :)
AUDNZD- Macroeconomic, Global Macro...Based on the numbers I see in the spreadsheet, I predict that this duo will continue to play in this manner for at least another week.
According to the macro facts that I have gathered, we might have at least more than 500 pips...
How the Fed's Rate Hikes Affect the Market (or Not)In this post, I'll be demonstrating how the Fed's rate hikes affect the equity market (or how they don't), through historical examples and analyses of market psychology. This is an issue that has been going on for a while, and one that has caught the attention of all market participants. Yes, tapering and rate hikes aren’t necessarily good news, but I don’t think that 1) they necessarily indicate the beginning of a bear market/recession, and 2) the Fed is as powerful and influential as we think they are.
This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
Introduction
- There’s a myth, a misconception in the market that the Fed allegedly rescues falling markets with rate cuts and easing measures, and vice versa for when the market is overheated.
- This myth began in 1987 during Black Monday, when Alan Greenspan’s Fed cut rates after the crash, creating an impression that the Fed was directly responding to the stock market.
- This is when the (mis)belief that the Fed would put a floor under a a falling market stuck.
- Nevertheless, if we analyze the data, it actually demonstrates that the Fed stood pat for most corrections, and cutting cycles typically arrive during bear markets, just as coincidence.
Historical Cases
- There are only two occasions in history where the Fed’s cutting cycles corresponded with market lowpoints.
- The first is the aforementioned Black Monday of 1987, and even for this case.
- If we take a look at the situation back then, it’s not so much that the Fed made international moves that contributed to history, but rather that the bear market started amid a global liquidity crisis.
- With excess liquidity, the rates should have been flat, or down, but that wasn’t the case.
- Thus, the Fed’s rate cuts were vital to unfreezing credit and ensuring banks and clearing houses would have access to liquidity they needed, while the market was under severe stress.
- The second occasion was the rate cut in 1998, when stocks were reacting to the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM).
- There was fear in the market that this collapse would lead to a domino effect, ending in a banking meltdown.
- Generally, when people fear a banking contagion, liquidity in interbank funding markets dry up.
- The Fed’s action to cut rates during this time helped keep money moving, and ensured that banks met their regulatory obligations.
Market Psychology
- In order to understand the recent discussion revolving around the importance of the Fed’s actions, we need to understand human nature.
- People love finding narrative threads and grand explanations because we’re biologically wired to make sense of the world that way.
- They confuse correlation and causation, and zero in on evidence that supports their view and shuns whatever suggests otherwise.
- But it’s important to remember that in most cases, a fact that everyone knows, tends to be closer to myth than reality, and even if it weren’t a myth, the fact that everyone knows it does not give us an edge in the market.
Summary
Market shocks are caused by surprises. News about a pandemic or cyber attack that catches investors off guard is much riskier than macro events that are predictable and can be anticipated. Given that the markets are efficient (which I believe they are), it's rational to assume that news about the Fed's rate hikes, and people reaction to it are already priced in. While short term volatility is definitely expected, I believe that the likelihood of this event becoming a trigger for a multi-year recession is extremely unlikely.
If you like this educational post, please make sure to like, and follow for more quality content!
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment below! :)
NZD-USD Fundemental and Macro AnalysisThis weekend's market is expected to be relatively quiet.
They will not produce large effects or move, and they will most likely not affect all pairings.
We should proceed with caution, but the New Zealand dollar and the United States dollar have a very high possibility of gaining ground because of recent performance and statistics that I have obtained.
After that, I'm going to stick with this currency pair for the weekend.
Everyone should use caution, even if they have high expectations.
EUR-NZD - Macroeconomic, Global Macro... FINALThis is the ultimate score of my previous three weeks; I'm not sure what will happen next weekend; I have a lot of work to do today... yet as I sit here and watch all of this, I feel stunder. I'm at a loss for what to say... is just untrustworthy.
EURNZD - Macroeconomic, Global Macro...I will simply follow up on the previous two weeks with fresh and stronger knowledge, which I will get at the Microeconomic Information/Fundamental Analysis stage of the process.
Things are rather straightforward; I don't need to say much since figures speak for themselves, and you can see my previous notion, which I have already shared...
If you see the same things I do, please share your observations.
Thank you very much!
BTCUSDT - UpdateHi All,
As we have discussed in our previous analysis (see the link below), BTCUSDT broke below the mini-bull uptrend line from January and bounced off the 1st support level at 38K.
Now, if BTC can break above the local downtrend line, would expect a move up possibly to 41,800 resistance line. Otherwise, it would break the 38K support line and sell to the 2nd support line at 35K.
Our overall market outlook is bearish due to macro economics and the world events.
Thank you for your support!
* Not a financial advice and please do your own DD.
Effects of Stimulus on Stock MarketHere is a quick chart that illustrates the effects of stimulus on the stock market. The influence that QE had on the market is painfully obvious. Will it be equally painful on the way down?
Bitcoin ongoing trendBitcoin is just forming a bearish flag, i don´t know why people are so bullish about this pump. The market needed to breath, obvious it pumped. Waiting for 40k-42k to short my position. People forget that Jerone Paul will not print more money and will raise interest rates. I dont know if we are in bear market but bitcoin will not be different from Nasdaq or S&P. Macro view in bearish in all markets. Dont be foolish. If you are not accumulating bitcoin, start it now in support areas.
SP 500 large count, Primary count 4 wave of the 5thThinking out loud trying to make sense of it all.. Still thinking we have another push up to come before the market makes a larger top. The move could certainly blow off more but I think 5400 range is conservative if we do have a 5th to come. Growth sector is the most beat up and the value rotation doesn't make sense as they are over represented by businesses that will be deeply disrupted by exponential technologies(EV/Hyrdogen/Solar/Biotech/Crypto/3d printing/AI). That seems the best long term sector to rotate to in my opinion. Either way everything will be affected by the massive shift in the underlying and antiquated finance system underpinning everything. Some are calling tops now but historically the market still rises for the first rate rises. But the slowing economy and likely peak in inflation over the last month may tip the feds hand early and maybe they only get a couple of hikes in. If there is a surprise to be had its more likely dovish than hawkish. And it seems unlikely we get concensus to spur growth in government. Deflation likely wins on multiple fronts before inflation gets another hand when the system breaks. The major unknown is exponential growth and the pivot to it...growth will be massive when it ramps up the curve, half of the growth occurs in the last doubling. Many forces colliding. Good luck out there. Cash flow is king.
Rekt City BishHere's where I'm supposed to put something meaningful in how I'm going to make an educated guess but I won't cause I'm guessing.
BTC Correction Cycle end Soon!!!According to Frost and Prechter Elliot waves, both progressive and correction waves are seems end already and BTC wondering begin a new cycle or not!
there is a possibility that BTC's new Progressive wave start soon.
by Observing ATR(Average True Range), the pattern is similar to what we have on 29th Sep 2021.
Price is exactly on a strong resistance point and with Inflation data which be released on Wednesday, Markets would get out of spider's web.
SUM UP:
I'm still very bullish at this moment and even we face another correction however we walked most of the road to the correction.
Bitcoin Mid-Week UpdateBearish structure continues... HOWEVER...
Exchange outflows are increasing, indicating "whales" are establishing a support level.
Macro-economic factors have major potential for crypto surge in Q1 2022 as a result of wealth preservation efforts.
Currently expecting continuation to bottom of channel ($13k to $16k)... BUT the likelihood of a near-term crash across the entire market is decreasing.
Many new emerging tech projects in crypto and in venture exchanges are at optimal entries (bottom of channels).
Market prediction confidence lower due to outside factors.
Evergrande's SelfdestructionEvergrande shares, symbol 3333, have been getting demolished as of late. On December 6th it broke past its all time lows of 1.88 HKD. This puts Evergrand's stock over 94% down from it's ATH of 32.39 HKD now at 1.77 HKD. The stock is no longer in free fall however, that may not last for long. On December 9th the real estate developer had defaulted on its debt for the first time. Despite the striking resemblance to the fall of Lehman Brothers, Evergrande has made strong efforts to distance itself from being perceived as fundamentally the same thing. Narratives around possible contagion to global markets have fuelled uncertainties and a possible run to risk off. Crypto could suffer due to offshore creditors to Evergrande such as Black Rock who also have exposure to BTC and ETH possibly selling to rebalance or cover losses. Please check out my previous analysis on BTC/USD where I predicted a retrace to $50k with support @ $47k. If you like my content, feedback, likes and coins are encouraged and appreciated! Thank you.
$ETH Market CyclesTime series analysis of Ethereum 2016-2018 bull market vs current 2020-2022 market cycle with confluence of US10Y yields. The US10Y reflect business cycles of inflation/deflation. Ethereum performs well during inflation as yields rise and the market environment becomes risk on. As inflation continues, high yields put strain on the economy and monetary policy makers tighten the money supply, causing deflation and deleveraging and Ethereum inevitably tops. I suggest the bull market will continue until Q2 2022. Until then, BTFD.
