DXY Weekly Update — July 14, 2025⌛ Timeframe:
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📆 Analysis Date: July 14, 2025
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🎯 Weekly Bias: Bearish-to-Neutral (Potential for retracement or reversal)
🔎 Market Overview:
⬇️ Persistent USD Weakness:
DXY has dropped nearly 10% YTD, marking the steepest half-year decline since 1986.
📉 Rate Cut Expectations:
Markets are pricing in a potential 75bps rate cut by the Fed in H2 2025, pushing yields and the dollar lower.
📦 Trade War Fears:
Renewed tariff risks (targeting EU, Japan, Mexico, South Korea) aren't boosting demand for USD — a signal of lost safe-haven appeal.
⚖️ Central Bank Diversification:
Global reserve managers are rotating into gold and away from USD, weakening long-term structural demand.
🌀 Sentiment & Risk Appetite:
💸 Liquidity Demand is Soft:
DXY is retesting a 4H fair value gap (97.10–97.30), suggesting potential short-term consolidation or correction.
🌍 Risk-On Mood Returns:
According to Goldman Sachs, the USD is trading more like a "risk asset" than a haven, aligning with rising equity appetite.
📉 Technical Landscape:
🟠 4H Structure:
If DXY breaks below 97.00, next support lies at 96.37, followed by 95.50–96.00.
Consolidation expected if price remains within the FVG.
🔻 Key Resistance:
97.70–98.20 zone. A break above this area could change the tone to bullish.
📌 Summary:
🔷 Fundamentals show long-term dollar weakening (rates, trade tension, reserve shifts)
🔷 Sentiment aligns with risk-on appetite and reduced USD demand
🔷 Technicals at critical level; break below 97.00 opens room for correction, break above 97.70 shifts bias bullish
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🟠 Bias: Bearish to Neutral
Watch Levels: 97.00 support, 97.70–98.20 resistance
⚠️ Note: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always apply risk management.
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