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Macrotrading

GBP/USD – Breakout Retest Setup🔍 Macro Fundamentals LEI improving → 86.8 → 90 Exo + LEI score = 78.5 → Healthy trend continuation bias Exogenous factors: April score 4.5 → positive skew USD macro weak & dovish, GBP maintaining hawkish tone 📅 Seasonality 📈 GBP bullish from April 24 onward 📉 USD bearish all month ✅ Perfect seasonality window for bullish GBP/USD swing 📊 COT Sentiment Both GBP and USD = ⚖️ Neutral → No positioning pressure, clean technical entry expected 📈 Technical Setup (4H Chart) Price has broken out of structure, now retesting resistance as support Structure forming above 1.32312, with a solid upside trend 🔁 Plan: Enter on breakout retest for trend continuation 📥 Entry: 1.32312 ⛔ Stop Loss: 1.31581 (below structure) 🎯 Take Profit: Trail or target based on 1.3550–1.3600 zone 🧮 R:R ≈ 1:2+
Long
by wajahatarif
EUR/USD – Pullback Entry After Weekly Breakout🧠 Macro View LEI rising steadily: 71.5 → 81.15 Endogenous strength improving each month Exo+LEI composite score: 498.65 → one of the strongest major FX models USD: Fundamentally weak with dovish Fed, neutral COT 📅 Seasonality 📈 EUR Index bullish throughout April 📉 USD Index bearish all month 🔥 EUR/USD seasonality = strong long bias into April 30 📈 Technical Setup (4H Chart) Price has broken weekly resistance → now acting as turncoat support Expecting pullback to 0.382 Fib level (~1.1462) before continuation Structure + macro + seasonality aligned for high-conviction long 📥 Entry: 1.1462 (Fib 0.382 retracement zone) ⛔ Stop Loss: Below (1.12424) 🎯 Take Profit: Retest high or 1.1583 and beyond (extension optional) 🧮 R:R ≈ 1:2.2+
Long
by wajahatarif
GBPJPY – Breakout Buy Setup (Macro Alignment)GBPJPY long setup backed by rising LEI, strong macro trend, JPY weakness, and bullish seasonal window approaching after April 24. Waiting for breakout confirmation above resistance to validate entry. 🧠 Macro + Model Alignment LEI score rising → 33 (April), macro outlook improving Exo+LEI = 1153 → strong bullish signal JPY COT: Overbought → reversal risk GBP fundamentals outperform JPY across April Seasonality: GBP bearish till April 24, then bullish into month-end 📌 Best entry window = April 25+ 📊 Technical Setup – 1H Chart Price testing key resistance zone ~190.00 Watching for breakout & candle close above resistance for confirmation Clear R:R with defined structure zones 📥 Entry: Break and close above 190.284 ⛔ Stop Loss: 187.414 🎯 Take Profit: 192.608 🧮 R:R ≈ 1:2+ Confirmation required before entry ✅
Long
by wajahatarif
4
CHFJPY – Bearish Reversal Setup (Mid-April)Summary CHFJPY short is supported by weak macro + divergence + seasonal timing. CHF is fundamentally the weakest major, while JPY is seasonally strong and technically aligned. 🧠 Fundamental & Seasonal Overview CHFJPY presents a high-probability short opportunity for the second half of April: CHF Fundamentals = Weakest among majors ↳ SNB recently cut rates to 0.25%, CPI down to 0.3%, GDP slowing ↳ Exo+LEI Score ≈ -1143 — highly bearish JPY Fundamentals Improving ↳ BoJ cautiously hawkish (wage growth + inflation rising) ↳ Seasonality favors JPY mid-late April COT: CHF near top → risk of unwind; JPY also elevated, but justified by fundamentals 📉 Seasonality CHFJPY is historically bearish from April 15–30 CHF flat to weak, while JPY typically strengthens in risk-off flows and Q2
Short
by wajahatarif
EURCAD Breakdown Watch–Bearish Divergence + Fundamental WeaknessEURCAD rallied into a key turncoat zone (former resistance → support) Currently consolidating within this zone and showing clear RSI bearish divergence on both 1H and 4H timeframes. Price is losing momentum while macro and seasonal factors align for a short bias. 🔍 Macro & Seasonality Confluence: EUR Fundamentals: Worsening LEI, Endogenous & Exogenous scores CAD Stability: Mildly bearish, but stronger than EUR Seasonal Bias: EURCAD turns bearish after April 15
Short
by wajahatarif
1