Macys
Macy’s stock Down 13.7% on Q2 Earnings ReportsMacy’s (NYSE: NYSE:M ) has been a staple of American retail for over a century, but in Q2 CY2024, the iconic department store faced a challenging environment that reflected the shifting dynamics of consumer behavior and broader economic trends. Despite delivering a robust earnings performance, Macy’s sales struggled, leading to a revised outlook that has left investors cautious.
Key Earnings Highlights
In the second quarter of 2024, Macy’s reported a non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $0.53, a significant 80% beat over the $0.29 expected by analysts. This marked a notable improvement from the $0.26 EPS in the same quarter last year. The company also generated $5.10 billion in revenue, slightly surpassing expectations of $5.05 billion, despite being 3.5% lower than the previous year.
One of the most encouraging signs from the report was the improvement in gross margins, which rose to 42.3% from 39.8% in the same period last year. This growth was driven by cost-cutting measures, including reduced promotional activity and better inventory management, resulting in a higher EBITDA margin of 8.6%, up from 6.5% in Q2 2023.
A Revised Outlook: Caution Amidst Uncertainty
Despite these positive earnings figures, Macy’s revised its full-year revenue guidance downward, projecting net sales between $22.1 billion and $22.4 billion. This is a decrease from the previous forecast of $22.3 billion to $22.9 billion, indicating a challenging environment ahead. The company also lowered its full-year EPS guidance to $2.72 at the midpoint, missing analyst estimates by 2%.
Macy’s (NYSE: NYSE:M ) CEO, Tony Spring, highlighted the difficulties the company is facing, citing selective consumer spending and an increase in promotional activities as key factors contributing to the lowered forecast. “As the quarter progressed, our customer became more discriminating, which we attribute to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and an increasingly complex news cycle,” Spring noted.
Consumer Behavior Shifts and Store Closures
The retail landscape is evolving, with consumers becoming more discerning about where they spend their money. Macy’s has been attempting to adapt to these changes by closing underperforming stores and focusing on more profitable locations. The company announced earlier this year that it plans to shutter about 150 of its namesake stores by 2027, while investing in the remaining 350 locations.
Technical Outlook
Macy stock, (NYSE: NYSE:M ), is presently experiencing a notable decline of 13.3%. This decline has resulted in the stock trading below several key moving averages, including the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. The daily price chart reveals a bearish symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating potential further downward movement. Additionally, the stock is currently oversold, which is reflected in a relatively weak Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 39.78. This low RSI suggests that the selling pressure may be dominating the market sentiment for Macy stock (NYSE: NYSE:M ) at this time.
Interestingly, while Macy’s flagship brand saw a decline in comparable sales by 3.6%, its beauty brand Bluemercury continued to perform well, with comparable sales rising 2%—marking its 14th consecutive quarter of growth. This highlights the divergent performance within Macy’s portfolio, with some segments thriving
M Macy's Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold M before the previous earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of M Macy's prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 17usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-8-30,
for a premium of approximately $1.47.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
MACY's season is coming -- and everyone knows it.As we approached the 2nd half of the year -- the season for buying personal stuff (and giving) is definitely ON.
And this past few days is a testament of that as MACY's is registering massive net buy volume.
On June 2, the stock net positive volume increased by a whopping +60% from its average numbers signifying an impending price shift to the upside.
Daily higher lows was created based on daily data. The stock re-touched the 1.0 FIB level -- the most discounted price you can get. Best price range to seed at this level.
Spotted at 15.00
TAYOR
Safeguard capital always.
M Macy's Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought M before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of M Macy's prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 17usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $1.49.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Arkhouse Pursues Macy's Amidst Talks for Higher BidIn a bid to secure a higher offer from Macy's ( NYSE:M ), investor Arkhouse Management has disclosed ongoing talks with the department store giant for access to due diligence materials. The move comes in response to Macy's characterization of the latest offer as "less than compelling," signaling a potential escalation in the battle for control over the iconic retailer.
Arkhouse, along with Brigade Capital, raised their offer to $24 per share on March 3, valuing Macy's at $6.6 billion. However, Macy's board expressed reluctance to transact at this price level, prompting Arkhouse to push for further negotiations and access to crucial diligence materials.
According to a regulatory filing, Arkhouse and Brigade have submitted a due diligence request list to Macy's, including customary items necessary to confirm or potentially increase the offer. Negotiations regarding the confidentiality agreement are ongoing, with Arkhouse Management and Brigade awaiting access to the requested materials.
With a 4.4% stake in Macy's ( NYSE:M ), Arkhouse Management remains determined to pursue its objectives. The investment firm has nominated nine director candidates, including executives with expertise in retail, real estate, and capital markets, in a move to reshape Macy's board.
The proxy battle initiated by Arkhouse underscores the intensifying competition within the retail sector. As traditional retailers grapple with evolving consumer preferences and the rise of e-commerce, strategic investments and boardroom maneuvers become crucial avenues for asserting influence and driving growth.
For Macy's, navigating this challenging landscape requires a delicate balance between preserving shareholder value and addressing the demands of activist investors. The outcome of the ongoing negotiations with Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital could significantly impact the future direction of the iconic department store chain.
M Macy's Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of M Macy's prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 20usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-8-16,
for a premium of approximately $2.36.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Macy's to close 150 stores Amidst weak 2024 salesMacy's Inc. (NYSE: NYSE:M ) announced a comprehensive restructuring plan on Tuesday, including store closures and cost-saving measures, alongside a forecast for annual sales and profit below expectations.
Store Closures and Cost-Saving Measures
The department store giant revealed plans to shutter approximately 150 stores through 2026, aiming to streamline operations and save $100 million in costs this year alone. Macy's ( NYSE:M ) shares surged 7% following the announcement, buoyed by quarterly profit beats, although they have trailed behind industry peers in recent times.
While the closures represent less than 10% of Macy's annual sales and predominantly target underperforming mall-based locations, the move underscores the retailer's proactive stance in adapting to shifting consumer preferences and economic challenges. CFO Adrian Mitchell emphasized that no additional layoffs were planned due to the closures, offering some reassurance amidst uncertainty.
Strategic Vision and Forecast
Macy's CEO, Tony Spring, characterized fiscal 2024 as a transition and investment year, expressing optimism for a return to consistent sales and profit growth by 2025. The company also outlined plans to open 15 Bloomingdale's locations and at least 30 new Bluemercury stores over the next three years, focusing on accelerating growth in its luxury brands segment.
However, Macy's holiday-quarter comparable sales saw a decline of 4.2%, although it surpassed analysts' estimates, attributed partly to steep discounts that drew in shoppers. Notably, net credit card revenue took a hit, falling 26%, signaling economic pressures among its customer base.
Financial Performance and Outlook
The restructuring efforts resulted in a $1 billion charge in the fourth quarter, reflecting the company's commitment to realigning its operations for long-term sustainability. Despite the charge, Macy's exceeded earnings expectations, reporting adjusted earnings per share of $2.45, above analysts' estimates.
Looking ahead, Macy's (NYSE: NYSE:M ) forecasts net sales between $22.2 billion to $22.9 billion for 2024, slightly below analysts' average estimate. Similarly, adjusted earnings per share are expected to range between $2.45 and $2.85, falling slightly short of expectations.
The announcement comes amidst heightened scrutiny from activist shareholders and proxy battles, underscoring the urgency for Macy's to implement decisive measures to reignite growth and regain investor confidence. As the retail landscape continues to evolve, Macy's ( NYSE:M ) remains committed to strategic agility and innovation in navigating challenges and capitalizing on opportunities in the ever-changing market.
Why Macy's Challenges Could Be a Hidden Opportunity Macy's have recently made headlines with significant job cuts, signaling a strategic shift amidst a rapidly changing market. While job cuts often raise concerns, savvy investors may recognize these moves as part of a broader transformation strategy. This article delves into the recent developments at Macy's, shedding light on the potential opportunities that lie beneath the surface for discerning buyers.
Macy's Adapting to the Changing Consumer Landscape
VIE:MACY 's, an iconic department store, is set to lay off approximately 2,350 employees and close five locations as part of a broader strategy to meet the evolving needs of consumers and the marketplace. This comes as no surprise, considering Macy's previous significant job cuts during the early days of the pandemic.
Investment Insight: Macy's commitment to deploying a new strategy demonstrates a proactive approach to stay relevant in the retail sector. While the short-term impact is reflected in a 3% stock dip, forward-thinking investors may see this as an opportunity to acquire shares at a potential discount before the market fully recognizes the benefits of Macy's strategic shift.
The Broader Retail Landscape
The retail industry has witnessed a wave of layoffs across various sectors, including tech, media, and hospitality. Companies like Google, Amazon, and LinkedIn have also announced job cuts in recent months, reflecting the ongoing challenges and transformations in the business landscape.
Conclusion:
While the immediate reaction to job cuts and store closures may instigate concerns, astute investors recognize that Macy's are not merely retrenching but strategically positioning themselves for sustained success. By understanding the underlying motives behind these decisions, investors can discern the potential for future growth and capitalize on the current market dynamics. In the ever-changing retail landscape, those with a keen eye for strategic opportunities may find this moment as a promising entry point into the stocks of companies poised for a resilient and prosperous future.
Looking for a bearish scalp on Macey's.
As you can see here, we are approaching a major imbalance on the hourly chart. I will be looking on the 15 minute chart for a heavy bounce off with good volume and hold it until close for a day trade. As always, thank you for viewing my analysis. #macys #puts #scalp
Macys an american institution is in a fight for it's life....if it takes out that neckline.
"Macy's founded in 1858.
It is the largest department store company by retail sales in the United States as of 2015.
Macy's operates with over 700 stores in the United States. Its flagship store is located at Herald Square in the New York City borough of Manhattan.
The company had 130,000 employees and earned annual revenue of $24.8 billion as of 2017. ". - wikpedia
#M
Target - Why Is Everyone Desperate To Long Disasters?Target is another example of the so-called "contrarian" trade that circulates on financial social media where, somehow, everyone puts on their VERY SMART PERSON baseball caps and gets long because it MUST BE TIME FOR THE MOTHER OF ALL SHORT SQUEEEEEEEEEEEZES.
And yet time and time again it never works.
Paypal is a really fine example.
Paypal - Going Long In a Bear Market?
I mean cool, if you bought at $59 in May (you didn't) and sold at $77 on the last two days of July (you didn't) then you made $18 a share and are a VERY SMART PERSON.
And then it gave it all back in a day on earnings and people are killing themselves buying the dips again.
Same with T-Mobile, Verizon, and Disney
Disney - Is Your Compass Upside Down?
It's at long time lows. Went up a bit on earnings. And then gave it all back over the span of a few days and people are still "buying teh dip," primarily because some Signal or Discord or picture of a girl on Musk's new Xeeeeeeeter app said "muchwow prize target nao $120 be a winner like me and BUY CALLS."
These are things that you need to stop doing. When something trades like a bag of doorknobs for a long period of time it's because it really is a piece of crap that will eventually go lower, and so instead of buying that dip, sell that rip.
Better yet, ignore this kind of junk and trade what is actually trending, the indexes, or just go outside for a month or two and come back when the chop is over and save your trouble.
Look at the monthly bars on Target. "Zoom out," they always say.
I understand this because in the first two months I wanted to go long on this thing for at least a retrace to $150 too.
But instead the old "support" has become new "resistance."
And this tells you that new lows are most likely coming.
And when Target flirts again with $100 people will go even more bigly long.
The longs trapped from $125 and $130 will double their position.
But this piece of crap probably won't bounce.
Have you actually been on their website and looked at the clothes they sell? Look at stuff like women's intimates (lol). Do you know they have an isle in the stores devoted to fleshlights?
Do you know that they allow people to steal?
That, my friends, is real "fundamental analysis". What's the bull case? That someone told you the EllLioT WaVeS SaId $160 MiniMum?
This is a chain that was bounced out of Canada because it was Zellers 2.0.
These markets, all the equities, all the commodities, the entire world is in for a rough future. The rough future might only last for a few months, but it might last for a few years.
If you don't "paradigm shift" ahead of schedule, by the time you do get your paradigm shifted forcefully, it will be too late for crying.
And so my only wish with these things is to wake you up. China is the world's central stage and what's going on with Xi Jinping, the Chinese Communist Party, and its 24-year persecution against Falun Dafa is the fundamental story that everything else is a slave to.
Time to wake up, my friends.
M Macy's Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of M Macy's prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 16usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-9-15,
for a premium of approximately $0.72.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Macys ( M ) Pre-earnings LongAs can be seen on the 2H chart, Macy's last earnings on June 5th was afavorble beat
resulting in first an uptrend and then a sideways price movement for a month and
a half. Earnings are expected on 8/22/23. Price has had dynamic support at the mean VWAP
anchored in April while the dynamic resistance has been two standard deviations above that
represented by the thin red line. Price is currently midway between resistance and support.
Additional support is the POC line ( with the highest trading volumes ) of the volume profile
beginning at the prior earnings date. Overall I see this as an opportunity to take an options
trade with an expiration a couple of weeks after expected earnings to strike the thin red line
of dynamic resistance at 17 expiring September 1st. Depending on price action in the days
leading up to earnings I may take off half the contracts if they are in decent profit while
letting the other half run through the post earnings period figuring that M could repeat
and jump after earnings.
MACY outlookTrend:
Below 50,100 and 200 EMA
ADX, DI below 20
Trend seems to be weak
Macro impact:
Consumer cyclical stock are not a good buy
Inflation impact on consumer purchase
High interest impacting credit buying
Recommendation:
Wait for price to cross above the resistance @ 24.95 for re-assessment
M Bearish inclined naked calls 13 May expiry (May Track 2)Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought
The Departmental Store sector was not one of my original shortlist. But I also do think my current method of shortlisting from the median of the monthly performance (both negative and positive), might not be the best. Even if the price performance meets my expectations on what I should be trading in a volatile ranging market.
Earning season did not help as part of my strategy is to stay away from earnings which are unpredictable
With nothing to show for my May shortlist. I was exploring my past trades and found that the Departmental Store sector had good prices and WAS close to how I wanted the price movement to be (within a range).
Macy’s had strong S&R lines at 28.54 and 22.97 and had lower high points
I sold calls on this as I expect it to range between the S&R points with a bearish inclination
I Feel
I felt good about this trade, confident as it met my expectations and what I was looking for.
Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side
With the lower highs I would be worried. Also i expect some bearish movement from the Fed announcements early May
We do know that while the overall consumer sentiment has been bearish, consumer spending is up and rising. This could drive some upside
Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer
Given that we feel that it is a Ranging market with Strong S&R lines. I think both could be right but with interest rate increases the probabilities are more bearish
Look For New Information
No new information that I could find on Macy’s
How Do I Feel Now
Post entering the trade, I feel good especially since prices have drop with Fed Powell’s announcement on the half-point hike. I was expecting this price drop to happen in May and not this week as the half-point hike is not a surprise and has been reported before
Trade Specs
Sold 290 Calls @0.26 - Strike 31
% to Strike is 15%
ATR is 1%
BP used 75k
Max Gain: 7540
Macy's Dim FutureBrick and mortar retail has been punished by online shopping advances.
$M has seen significant erosion since 2015 ATH.
Now seeing rejection on monthly chart by the 100 & 200 EMA, testing 50 EMA in coming months.
Now, in the face of economic slowdown it's increasingly likely that the retail giant will realize further losses given declining consumer sentiment and rapidly increasing prices.
Contracting labor, continued retail shift, inflation... $M will likely revisit $5 price level this year.