Nasdaq Fractal Blackswan Cycles 📈📉The average citizen lacks any real understanding of Central Banking all they know are uneducated talking point from 🐑 that have the same or less power over their lives & the system as a whole that gave rise 2 them at leverage while they are none the wiser they are referred to by the architects of the system as... 🤓👉 ( working class / human capital)
Scandals like Enron, Madoff, & now FTX are just bi-products of easy money policy that gives risk to excessive risk seeking behavior by the 🐑 which the FED understands most be corrected out of the system in order to maintain the 100 yr + trajectory they have done with the United States of America & ensure the survival of the livestock in the farm so the country has a stable to growing labor pool to remain an ongoing concern. There is a reason Steve Jobs didn't care what the peeps in the mailroom complained about and that is cuz its not their system and they have no idea how lucky they are to even be part of it 🧐
This cycle with FTX is just one more demonstration of just how much The Federal Reserve is the market & really knows what they are doing. As painful as the de-risking process the Fed puts the country through can be we can see on the macro that it is indeed a necessary evil to flush out back actors that form during easy 💰 policy cycles ♻️ & before they can grow even larger & more damaging to the system as a whole 🤓
Bear 🐻 markets end in mass graves 💀 so these events are 🔑 2 bringing aboutthe depression phase of the cycle & bottoming out the market before the Fed engineers new growth 📈 Patiently waiting for 2024 💡
Madoff
Prisoner No. 61727-054Bernie Madoff and the Split-Strike Conversion
Bernie Madoff used a strategy of buying put options in SPX and selling calls. Then, he bought stocks which he carefully selects.
This mixture produces very stable returns and is one of the best strategies in options and commonly used among hedge funds today.
Split-Strike Conversion is a dressed up name Madoff used for a simple collar strategy.
Essentially, collars limit both the losses and gains for an investor who has bought a particular stock.
Today, all firms and funds use similar strategies to maintain long term steady growth.
See my ideas on how a large equity fund (17 billion) use simple quarterly options to produce the same steady growth.
Rise to Fame
Madoff was not part of the Wall Street crowd and started his investing career in penny stocks the same way Jordan Belford did as portrayed in the Wolf of Wall Street.
Madoff became wildly successfully claiming his split-strike conversion was the best way to make large and steady returns.
Madoff was consistent in generating 10-20% per year in 1992 which wasn’t that far off the S&P 500 annual return.
Trouble started for Madoff when he was reporting an undisclosed commission instead of a standard hedge fund fee.
Madoff was active on Wall Street from 1960 until 2008 when his fund collapsed under the pressure of the Great Financial Crisis.
Deposits and Redemption, the Ponzi scheme
Madoff’s Ponzi scheme was simple. Claim big returns to investors to generate more deposits then redemptions.
His fund looked very enticing, I can see why he generated billions of dollars in inflows.
Bernie would simple pay people wanting to cash out with the money new investors would bring in.
It makes me think that Madoff would have been a crypto God had he not been so arrogant as to not expect a financial crisis.
Mark Twain said, “History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme”
How many other Madoff like schemes are out there today, just cruising under the radar until the next financial crisis.
Look what recently happened with all the crypto funds collapsing as bitcoins price bears down to lowest prices since its rise to glory.
Are these signs of a much broader problem or are they just the outliers getting their just deserts.
Thanks for reading, please boost if you enjoyed the idea and follow @spyvsgme for more ideas published regularly.
Reasons for Crypto-Optimism During the Next RecessionMade a list of a few things for crypto holders to be optimistic about the recession/depression about to unfold in the global markets right now.
- Crypto's market cap is less than 1% (possibly even less than 0.1%) of traditional stocks. If the stock market goes down,
- Banks are taking their time raising interest rates on savings accounts while pushing mortgage and loan rates up at the same time. This will make staking rewards (XTZ- 4.6%, ETH - 3.65%) look appealing.
- The 2008 recession coincides with a period where tech companies (Apple, Google, Facebook, Microsoft) took over the charts of the Fortune 500. We're likely to see a similar thing happen again - crypto is the industry most positioned to be in that category right now.
- Ponzi schemes exist in traditional markets too, and we're going to see Bernie Madoff-esque figures emerge as the market starts to dip. Madoff was able to keep his racket going for over 20 years just because the stock market kept on going up and up. When that stops, the scams will too. (Many of these practices have been "legalized" in the finance worlds at this point, but it won't change the fact that people will lose money and there will be a backlash against that.) This will further erode trust in the traditional markets as a whole.
People generally don't do research unless they're forced to, but the economic slowdown may force a lot of people to look further into the details out there. This generally works in favor of crypto assets since what they offer now is just a better deal for most people out there.
General Electric - Expect volatilityGE, America's sweetheart has been accused of fraud allegations before. This time though, it's by the same person who did it on the Madoff Scheme (Harry Markopolos)
Markopolos’ main points of contention are:
1) GE’s insurance obligations are woefully under-reserved and it has been lying to the Kansas Insurance Department
2) GE shouldn’t have consolidated BHGE’s financial statements, which are a source of confusion
3) GE’s evolving presentation makes it very difficult to evaluate GE’s operating performance.
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In response to the whole ordeal, General Electric's CEO bought $2million in shares.
Bitcoin , biased journalism ,C.C.N. BitscamLast night, a journalist from C.C.N., while Bitcoin was still in freefall, urged and ADVISED people to buy in. Explaining that at around 4600 (and change, who can keep track - unless it's your JOB) Bitcoin had found it's bottom. The piece was marked as an Op-Ed , a disclaimer indicating that he is not a financial advisor - this was not to be construed as advice , and everything else that is verse and chorus in the "please don't sue or prosecute me" song. "Buy the dip."
If you are still in H.O.D.L. , and bought the "dip," depending upon what amount you bought you have that much less wealth. If you set a stop loss, you have that much less wealth. Fool me again??
Once upon a time Journalism was an entirely different entity. Conducted with respect , integrity and FACTS. Last nights article brought me too a surety that is making my blood boil. I didn't buy the dip. I'm not drinking the Kool- Aid. I had to quit. WHY?
We who make up the community of Tech enthusiasts and /or investors have been done a GREAT INJUSTICE for about a year now , perhaps longer. It's like Bernie Madoff squared.
If an untrained, self taught observer like myself can see that the traditional weights and measures do not and can not apply to crypto , Journalists working under aid in this very esoteric sector most certainly should have come to the same conclusion before costing people their hard earned money day after day with their arbitrary analysis and predictions. My blood is boiling , why?
The people of this world have been subject to the biggest scam , ponzi pump and dump scheme in the history of man!!! Biased journalism , naked price manipulation that can be SEEN if you watch an order book , perpetuation of f.o.m.o. , fomenting gambling addiction , lies about price direction , support levels, resistance points. Constant prodding with the baseless claims of imminent breakouts. The sickest part of this is that people are behind what is happening and they have grown very , very wealthy. Bernie Madoff wealthy.
Not everyone is guilty , and I am quite sure that journalists who work for crypto new companies are under pressure to sell these stories. After all , an entity devoted to crypto news exclusively wouldn't thrive if they told the real truth. I suspect bribery in one or more forms , job pressure , and a herd mentality that tends to cause these writers to agree with each other. They probably just re-word another article half the time.
I DO believe that a digital currency will thrive based upon it's technological merits and use cases, but that is a product of research and I am not going to do this community the disservice of mentioning which one.
Nobody has been talking about the human toll. Disclaimers aside , there are a lot of dreamers in the world. During the Great depression , or as it ensued , people became so distraught that they were jumping from buildings often enough for it to be etched into human history. The stock market eventually put protections in place so those events would be less likely. THERE ARE NO PROTECTIONS IN THE CRYPTO MARKET.
There are people so deep into this downward spiral they cannot make themselves cut their losses. Insanity is defined by repeating the same cause and effect actions again and again , expecting a different result. There is a human toll , taken by greedy fat cats and scam artists who have no qualms about killing peoples dreams , savings , retirement resources etc.
I'm done. No more writing. I will not inadvertently cause any harm to this community.
Mining for nothing, hash wars , halving etc. - there are digital transaction networks and their tokens that don't require mining, but like I did , you'll need to research that if you don't already know , and while that may be an advantage , I'm only sure about the fact that I am very , very unsure.
Caveat Emptor.
Best of luck and fortune to all of you.
German coffers dry and flakey, pass the head & shoulders babyThe dax needs something wet, not dry powder,
this flakey stock market, is lookin shakey
you can kick and be yellin, it was greenspan who started
printed too much cash gettin of the lower bound,
aint as easy as ya think, no wages growth
or PMI steep slope,
and you'll sink in a blink, just relax and joke
you risk whiplash, lock up ya cash
just dont put it in crypto, especially not DASH
bring wolfgang and merkel and close up the boarders,
populist forces are gonna bring deglobal forces
de-railing the trump bull, like humpty dumpty off a stool
fuck this passive trade is crowded, not cool.
when ya go -15, you remember the cream
the good ol days, are never as good as they seem
so manage ya risk and lock in ya stops.
remember its the drop bears that collapse
The Big Leverage - lookin for a big yellow, in 6 inch stilettos Support $70
Bank housing loan book performance worst since the GFC
looks heavy AF, 10% gross yields might provide some support.
Plenty cockroaches in the kitchen from Money Laundering to Fraud, negligence and market manipulation
I will be shorting "The Big Leverage" until Sydney property bottoms out.