Magic
New month, who dis? 1d/4h with +/- 10%, 25%, 50% vola filter 🌭The What:
1d chart on left shows +/- 10%, 25% and 50% levels based on the monthly atr (roughly 450 pts) and the 4h chart on right showing +/- 10% and 50% levels based on the wkly atr (roughly 186pts).
The Why:
+/- %’s levels serve as vola filters to map directional trend of a move within a given range, as well potential markers to gauge an extension in pa. Levels can also be used to identify pivots within wkly/mnthly range.
1d chart on left showing pa above hma sup, with next cycle on hma and dmi being bullish. DMI also shows no hh on di- since 1d close @ 4292, thus presenting a bull div. Break above 4188 (1d hma rt) and Indies will roll into bull x.
On right, 4h showing bull div on dmi, with next cycle on hma and dmi also pending bull x.
Stay above 1d sup @ 4110 and 4h sup 4094, and pa to push upside for marginal pump towards wkly rt @ 4280.
Algo pivs enroute to wkly rt: 4172, 4179, 4194, 4266, 4277 with 4299/4303 as feasible extensions on the wkly atr. Mind the 200 hma on 4h (currently @ 4227) for safety, and never be the last one out.
Current bias: Bullish on 1d, Wkly still bear unless it sustains 4301.
Live chart showing 1d/4h levels based on monthly and wkly atr, to be updated wkly after 1st 8h candle from Sunday open.
www.tradingview.com
Live chart showing major algo pivs upside to ath and down to pre covid rt (and lower for giga bears) on 4h (updated daily, i mean, hopefully, daily, yah alright, updated daily.)
www.tradingview.com
appreciate the risk. 🎲
How to Catch a Falling Knife by the HandleI'm not suggesting here that the broader equity market is going to violently sell-off soon or anything like that. I figure that posting an idea on such a scenario might be useful just in case volatility picks up a few knots with some foreseeable seasonal headwinds.
Also, the broader equity market is probably going to sell off soon.
Now that the possibility of such an event has been thrown out there, I offer something that could make the whole experience even more fun than meme stocks. That would be the use of the 186-period exponential moving average to locate the approximate price level where the first safe area to take profits would be under a crash scenario. Typically, you don't want to "catch falling knives", or any other falling weapon because it is assumed that the trader catching said knife/weapon thinks he has caught the bottom. Of course, he has done the opposite and is in fact, holding a bag of something that will drop in value very soon and the hand he is holding it with can barely hang on because he missed the knife's handle on the way down.
While this scenario happens all too often, i believe that catching a falling knife can be done safely and profitably if using the 186 EMA and a SHORT position. What you are then catching is not the stock/derivative itself at a discount long, but rather closing out a short knife that you threw a while back for extreme profits. The key is that the 186 EMA offers you a nearly perfect target to safely exit an extreme short position, without using complicated time/price methods that are usually esoteric to some extent.
Just take a look at the chart displayed above, which offers a detailed look into the kind of weapons that SP Futures traders had to deal with over the years. To fully appreciate the results of this demonstration, you must understand the difficulty of trading this futures market. The degree of leverage is high enough to wipe out new entrants within hours and is also severe enough whereby the assumptions required to use Wave Principle cannot be relied upon.
In summary, the fact that this EMA either caught outright or was the cause of the first major bounce of ALL significant selloffs over the past 10 years is remarkable. On the weekly timeframe, it will undoubtedly prove useful for bearish swing traders using an intermediate time horizon. In a whipsaw scenario intraday, the 186 can be quickly applied in a pinch, which can prevent panic selling in all sorts of situations.
The uses for this tool are many and I am lucky to have randomly stumbled upon it about a year ago when messing around with pinescript for the first time. In fact - see for yourself how the 186 EMA somehow plays a structural role in at least one timeframe (even the 5-min at times) of any given price chart. The key is to find which timeframe the 186 is fitting most closely with at the current time.
Remember, use wisely when catching weapon-profits, not weapon-long-positions.
-PiggishMagician
AMEX:SPY
SP:SPX
GLOBALPRIME:US500
MAGIC Staking has Begun!TreasureDAO and Magic staking make me wonder....
Based off a fractal from earlier this year, the pumpamentals just make sense.
Also Metcalfe's law might apply with all the NFT collections (smols) and Play-to-earn games coming from the Treasure-verse.
Magic is the TOKEN of L2!
MAGIC ChannelChannel idea for the MAGIC token.
Check out:
$MAGIC, TreasureDAO, Smolbrain, Smolverse, Trove
#BTC big move coming January 2nd or 3rd! High Time FrameMoving Averages:
- Using the 400D EMA as support, which was held during the June/July 2021 markdown. By held I mean that we have not closed below it on the weekly TF since March 2020.
Patterns:
- Markdown structure is almost identical to last year's at a slightly smaller scale. Bitcoin will recover when most of the retail traders will (at least psychologically) capitulate as most of the support classic patterns and geometrical shapes will have been broken.
Fibonacci:
- Fib levels self explanatory (July 2020 bottom to ATH) we might ultimately hit the 0.702 level on full retracement or maybe below it at yearly RVL
Volume profile for the yearly range:
- Value area low could be touched in theory without breaking the ultimate support (39k). This is the REAL DEMAND zone, a zone where people will buy like there's no tomorrow.
We're just under yearly POC (48000) which is not great as it acts as massive resistance.
Black Magic:
- if you believe in moonphases.... there will be a New moon on the second of January. (It' annoyingly accurate for major moves)
If we break 39k....30k is the next support well... and see you in a few years. Don't forget to DCA.
Meanwhile we trade up and down.
Short Term Timed Predictive Analysis GannTime is the most important factor in determining market movements and by studying past price records you will be able to prove to yourself history does repeat and by knowing the past you can tell the future. There is a definite relation between price and time. By studying time cycles and time periods you will learn why market tops and bottoms are found at certain times, and why resistance levels are so strong at certain times, and prices hold around them. The most money is made when fast moves and extreme fluctuations occur at the end of major cycles.
- W.D. Gann
Enhanced Magic Formula for fundamental analysisThis is an experimental procedure based on fundamentals. Since, there isn't much option to backtest these methodologies, I am trying to create a trade and then measure performance over long period of time.
Magic Formula investing method is invented by Joel Greenblatt . In a nutshell strategy does following:
Rank all the stocks based on Return on Capital
Rank all the stocks based on Earning Yield
Add these ranks to come up with a combined rank.
Invest equally in first 10 stoscks of combined. Rebalance yearly.
Concept here is, earnings yield represents value whereas return on capital represents quality. Combining these two to get the stocks which have best of both.
More information on the methodology is present here: www.investopedia.com
Improved Method :
Since, tradingview does not allow comparing fundamentals or technicals of all stocks, I had to do this in python. Output report can be found here: docs.google.com
Basic Filtering of Stocks:
Basic filtering of stocks is done based on the methods as mentioned in quality screen indicator:
Since the financial data is taken from yahoo for generating report, some of the quality parameters are not included and there can be slight changes in the fundamental values present in tradingview. No other initial filtering is applied.
Derive ranks on several Value, Profitability, Growth and Cashflow parameters:
Value Parameters : P/E, P/S, P/B, P/C, P/FCF, PE-Forwarding, PEG Ratio
Profitability Parameters : ROA, ROE, ROI, GrossMargin, OperatingMargin, ProfitMargin
Growth and Momentum Parameters : Quarterly, Half Yearly and Yearly Performance, Upside Calculated from analyst valuation
Cashflow Parameters : Quick Ratio, Current Ratio, Debt to Equity, Long term Debt to Equity, Debt to Assets, Long term debt to assets.
Derive composite rank for Value, Profitability, Growth and Cashflow based on individual ranks:
For example, Add up all ranks of value parameter to come up with Value Score. And then sort value score in ascending order to get value rank
Derive combination ranks such as value/growth rank, value/profitability rank etc by similar method: Also create combined rank which considers all 4 ranks - value, profitability, growth and cashflow.
Sort the values based on combined rank to get top value/quality stocks - which represents lowest score.
Final stock selection consideration : Instead of picking first 10 stocks, I have picked stocks from different sectors thus sacrificing bit of Magic Formula edge. This is to avoid high concentration on single sector.
Final list of stocks selected:
SBSW - Basic Materials (Gold)
VALE - Basic Materials (Industrial Metals and Mining)
GOOG - Communication Services (Internet and Information)
CROX - Consumer Cyclical (Footwear and Accessories)
ENVA - Financial (Credit Services)
EVR - Financial (Capital Markets)
UTHR - Healthcare (Biotechnology)
LPX - Industrial (Building Products and Equipment)
TER - Technology (Semicondoctor Equipment & Materials)
AMAT - Technology (Semicondoctor Equipment & Materials)
long $CMPSLooks like the MACD is still heading down but curling up. RSI is bottoming out as it reaches an important level of support. I think the risk reward at the $28 level is optimal. If you have a high risk tolerance, buy now.
Shrooms are already decriminalized in Denver and are about to be in Detroit.
The TAM which was initially an imaginative number is now becoming real for Compass Pathways. Go long CMPS
www.freep.com
Looks ready to find a floor and launch on the weekly chart.
I put a $PELL on you Because you're mine [soundtrack]Comparing SPELL, OHM and ICE just for fun because there is no such realistic Price Action in real life. But, if I had to pick one, it would be SPELL.