MAGN - Setting up for advance in Q4 MAGN had a nice run since Oct22 advancing +157% since the bottom to recent Sep's top. Is the rally over, or do we have at least one more advance potential? My technical thesis supports the latter.
I don't have high confidence in my ElliotWave count on this chart, due to price extensions beyond classical fibonacci levels, but from pure price and volume dynamics, one may suggest that price is in a base building process for at least one more advance to 59-61 area and even above it.
Having a closer look on a Weekly chart, we may notice big green accumulation bars and good weekly bar closes during price advance and relatively low selling volume when price corrects. Notice how price gets supported every time it moves bellow this line - all that are signs of buyers proliferation and accumulation happening.
For the confirmation of my thesis, I need price to stay above previous low (49) and decisively move above 53.5 pivot with volume support. That would put me into the game with tight stop-parameters. If the price will dive bellow 49 area, than my short/mid-term bullish thesis is wrong and price needs more time to digest its advance (if not something major bearish is in the cards for Russian equities).
P.S. orange straight lines are my previous buy (bellow the bars) and sells points (above). Double bar above means complete exit from the position.
MAGN
Forecast of financial results for Q4`21 - an upside of 20%We calculate financial indicators for the 4th quarter of 2021
Revenue — $3163.3 million (3278*965)
EBITDA — $1250.2 million (3278*381.4)
Profit - $911M (1250-125)*(1-0.19)
Change in NCF - $125 decrease based on 12% of revenue (1643-3163.3*0.12*4)
FCF — $875.2 mln 92% qoq increase (EBITDA-change in PFC-CAPEX-taxes = 1250.2+125-286-214)
Dividend - 5.7 rubles. an increase of 214% qoq (875.2*73/11174.33) received more than the target of 4.5 rubles. that means there will be other regular expenses with an increase in CPAEX by $200 million.