Possible beginning of a new bearish leg for SPXSummary:
Main bearish trend (dotted teal downtrend line)
Reversal attempt in progress (purple uptrend line)
200-SMA breakout in jan-2023
Failure to continue the breakout (failed bull flag - orange lines)
Arrow #3 as a good entry option for a bear trade.
Possible beginning of a new bearish leg, aligned with the main trend
Possibility to surpass the last low (oct-13-2022). Set target @3,330.00.
Timeframe expected: 3 to 4 months.
Detailed explanation:
2022 was a very bearish year for stock markets, and prices have navigated under the 200-days simple moving average (200-SMA) for the most part of the year. On the other hand, the first months of 2023 had some attempts of breakout to this widely known indicator.
By December, 2022, prices tried to break-up the 200-SMA, but failed, then pulled back and tried a new breakout in January, 2023, that succeeded and provided some hope for a reversal. Arrow #1 is signaling the top of this bullish leg. After this, prices developed a little bull flag (orange lines) , near a resistance level.
I have been closely following the price movement on this flag, to try to catch a trading opportunity, bullish or bearish. The bullish case was the most evident, and would happen with the breakout of the flag, confirming the continuation of the main trend reversal. But if it didn’t come true, prices could continue on a longer range or even breakdown the 200-SMA, providing, hence, a bearish trade. It turned out that the second case is being developed.
On February 21st the bull flag was undone, by a very bearish -2% candle, then some days passed and the 200-SMA offered a support for the prices, this movement came along with some doubt candles (tiny ranges, long wicks), their in the area near arrow #2.
This arrow points specifically to a bullish engulfing candle, that signaled a possible return of the bull and that the 200-SMA would indeed sustain the prices. After that, a bullish candle confirmed the engulfing pattern, and I considered that now it was a “make or break” situation, that either had to continue with strong buyings or finally give away and return to the main bearish trend (dotted teal downtrend line) .
The second scenario happened, with a classical shooting star candle denoting a top, indicated by arrow #3 and followed by a relevant -1.53% bearish candle. I consider it can turn out to be the beginning of a new bearish leg in favor of the main market trend. If it breakdown the 200-SMA (and the previous bottom, of arrow #2) we will probably be full gas back to the bearish trend, reverting that secondary bullish trend indicated by the purple line.
Predicting the future is impossible, but trading is a probability game, and to my criteria the odds are high enough to make a bet now. So, I started a trade yesterday near the market close. The stop zone is a little above the high of the shooting star candle of mar-06-2023, and my target is @3,300.00, I chose this number considering that this is a movement with the main trend, and that the last low (oct-13-2022) is usually surpassed in this kind of situation.
PS: I know there’s a whole FED policy/interest rates discussion going on, and that it provides much of the ultimate reasons for the market movements I described, but I will stick to technical analysis here and to the principle that the chart sums it all up, hence I considered only price patterns in my analysis.
Maintrend
BTC/USD 1M. Monthly chart. Global trendHere's the global - main - trend of Bitcoin from the Bitstamp chart.
We see a channel forming here. Now Bitcoin is near the support zone. All the main details by my view are shown on the chart.
Still not all the details, not to make the chart messy.
Locally(from the perspective of the monthly chart) we see a down trendline forming here(orange). We can potentially reach and broke this trendline in the near future.
If we don't break it now - our potential then the nearest monthly support level, which is 13880$.
Still. If we break this local downtrend we can reach the monthly resistance zone which is 38500-45500$(shown on the chart). The POC of all distribution of 2021 is around 36000$. So this same zone might be the medium of the potential future distribution.
Eventually, we are still to reach 13880 support zone in my opinion. Also, if you pay attention, the same price movement that was in 2017, when we reached 20k$, might happen this time also, but this time in the other side. It's be a squeez from the support of the channel down. Exactly the same percent down, as it was up in 2017, is precisely the 13880$ level. You can check it by yourself.
So there are basically 2 main scenarios - break of a trendline and reach of 38-45k$ zone. Or not break of a trendline and then we reach at least 13880$. Everything is quite simple.
$PWR Potential Bullish & Bearish CaseNYSE:PWR
$PWR Analysis Breakdown:
11JAN2023
Relevant News : Quanta just scored a new contract for huge construction and optic fiber placement in Colorado.
Financials : Looking at statement of Cash Flows we see Quanta is using reinvested operating income into company asset's last year to pay current debt and lower debt-equity ratio, still exited with 30+ million in cash flow change. With new contract and reinvested capital providing cushion for incoming recession/bear market, this will probably be the last bull rally for awhile (probably until June or July once Fed pivots hopefully start) until project in Colorado starts and they can start seeing positive amounts in accounts receivable.
Daily Chart - Earlier this week $PWR fell below strong support 141.68 PL (price level), on 05JAN2023 $PWR bounces back from 134.41 PL establishing that PL as new support w/ good volume to confirm level. RSI shows momentum died 14DEC2022 where momentum bottomed out at -1.64 w/ MACD sell off dying out and buyers looking to enter market.
4hr Chart - confirms bounce from 134.41 PL , MACD shows steady buyer entry fighting off remaining sellers.
2hr Chart - RSI showing new bullish momentum verified by bullish cross and chart shows buyer/seller fighting started in 06JAN2023 now buyers are pushing forward.
Summary and Consensus :
If tomorrow (12JAN2023) $PWR can confirm a break past 141.68 PL & MACD buyers enter while RSI momentum makes a bullish cross with confirmation on 2hr/4hr chart then $PWR will enter 145 PL zone and hopefully create consolidation to verify new support. With a 1.13 beta rating on Darqube $PWR will flow it's own trend closely and accurately. Current Change = +0.65%
Possible sales positionsWe see a divergent pattern in terms of price in the main trend according to the higher time frames that after the last major bearish wave, we are retracing to the 0.78 Fibonacci level , which can give its last warnings to the buyers, before falling towards the main support areas, and in this case, we can only consider selling transactions when we see (BOS) in the areas mentioned in the chart.
Steps to invest successfully Hello guys, I hope you liked the video and you learnt something new.
Due the lack of time I didn't have the opportunity to talk in detail about everything I wanted. There are so many things to say and I would love to talk about them for hours.
Still, for any questions regard the video let me know in the comments. I will make sure to make more tutorial videos.
This video is meant to be a learning video and not a financial advise one.
ETHUSDT SHORT-TERM SHORT POSITIONGood day!
If ETH breaks below descending triangle, the price will very much likely re-test the main trend-line. It might re-test the support as a resistance and then fall back to the turqoise line in the bottom.
Please do your own research and as always,
HAPPY TRADING HUNTERS!