USD/CHF Short Setup – Institutional Flow & Liquidity TargetsUSD/CHF is setting up for a bearish move, with confluence from technical structure, order flow, and fundamental events. Here’s a complete breakdown of the setup, execution plan, and institutional positioning.
📊 Trade Execution & Technical Breakdown
🔹 Entry Zone: Price rejected from the 0.8786 - 0.8794 supply zone, aligning with 0.62 - 0.79 Fibonacci retracement levels.
🔹 Confluences:
✅ Bearish trend continuation – Lower highs forming.
✅ Liquidity grab above minor resistance, suggesting smart money distribution.
✅ Break & retest structure confirms potential downside.
🔹 Target Zones:
📉 First target: 0.8767 (previous low & liquidity area).
📉 Final target: 0.8750 (-0.62 Fibonacci extension).
📌 Market Structure:
Higher timeframe bearish bias remains intact.
Supertrend (4H) signals continued downside.
EMA alignment (1D) confirms selling pressure.
🏦 Institutional Positioning & Market Sentiment
📌 Commitment of Traders (COT) Report Insights:
📈 USD: Institutional long positions declining, indicating potential USD weakness.
📉 CHF: Increased net short positioning, suggesting institutional flow favoring CHF strength.
📌 Liquidity & Order Flow Data:
Market depth shows heavy short positioning near resistance.
Volume profile indicates a lack of demand above 0.8780, confirming weak bullish momentum.
⚡ Fundamental Drivers – Key News Events
📊 Macroeconomic Data Impacting USD/CHF:
📌 Employment Trends Index (108.35) – USD strength limited.
📌 T-Bill Auction & Treasury Buyback – Potential liquidity shifts affecting risk sentiment.
📌 Fed’s Beige Book & Policy Outlook – Key for USD direction.
🛑 Impact on Trade:
✔️ USD uncertainty fuels risk-off flows into CHF.
✔️ Short-term retracement provides an ideal short entry before further downside.
📈 Volatility & Liquidity Insights
📌 Prime Market Terminal Data:
ATR shows increased volatility, supporting large price swings.
Institutional short positioning rising, indicating strong bearish control.
DMX data suggests liquidity buildup below 0.8760.
🔥 Conclusion – High-Probability Short Setup
✅ Bearish trend structure aligns with institutional positioning.
✅ Liquidity grab above resistance confirms distribution phase.
✅ Confluence of technicals, fundamentals, and order flow supports downside movement.
📌 Short Bias: Targeting 0.8767 → 0.8750.
📌 Key Invalidations: A break above 0.8800 could shift sentiment.
💬 What’s your take on USD/CHF? Let me know in the comments! 🚀📉
Majorpairs
TYPES OF CURRENCY PAIRSWhen trading Forex, it is essential to know about the different types of currency pairs, as some pairs are much riskier to trade than others, especially for those with minimal trading experience.
Major Currency Pairs
Before we discuss major currency pairs, we should first list the major currencies individually. The eight major currencies are:
US dollar (USD)
Euro (EUR)
British pound (GBP)
Japanese yen (JPY)
Swiss franc (CHF)
Canadian dollar (CAD)
Australian dollar (AUD)
New Zealand dollar (NZD)
As listed above, there are eight major currencies but there are only seven major pairs because a major pair includes the U.S. dollar. Major pairs are the most traded currency pairs on the forex market. They account for the highest average trade volume and have the most liquid markets, as well as the lowest risks and spreads offered by brokers. The seven major currency
pairs are:
EUR/USD – Euro / US dollar
GBP/USD – British Pound / US dollar
USD/JPY – US dollar / Japanese yen
AUD/USD – Australian dollar / US dollar
USD/CHF – US dollar / Swiss franc
USD/CAD – US dollar / Canadian dollar
NZD/USD – New Zealand dollar / US dollar
Note that AUD/USD and USD/CAD are sometimes also referred to as commodity currencies.
Minor Currency Pairs
Minor currency pairs (also known as cross pairs or crosses) always include two major currencies but not the U.S. dollar. Crosses are not as popular and as highly traded as the major pairs. This means they can be riskier than a major pair and will attract wider spreads from brokers. Their liquidity can also be low at times, presenting a challenge for inexperienced traders in a thin volume environment. Here are a few examples of minor currency pairs:
EUR/GBP – Euro / British pound
EUR/JPY – Euro / Japanese yen
GBP/JPY – British pound / Japanese yen
AUD/NZD – Australian dollar / New Zealand dollar
NZD/JPY – New Zealand dollar / Japanese yen
GBP/CAD – British pound / Canadian dollar
Exotic Currency Pairs
Exotic currency pairs consist of a major currency paired with a currency from a developing and emerging nations as well as certain developed nations. These currency pairs trade in a far less liquid market compared to the majors and minors as they are traded less frequently. This causes their spreads to be much higher than those of the major and minor pairs. Here are a few examples of exotic currency pairs:
EUR/TRY – Euro / Turkish lira
USD/ZAR – US dollar / South African rand
AUD/MXN – Australian dollar / Mexican peso
USD/HKD – US dollar / Hong Kong dollar
NZD/THB – New Zealand dollar / Thai baht
CAD/NGN – Canadian dollar / Nigerian naira
Risks and Spreads
Major currency pairs have the most liquidity and as a result, attract lower spreads, whilst minor and exotic pairs are much riskier and attract wider spreads.
Liquidity & Volatility
Due to high liquidity in the major currency pairs market, they are consistent and predictable, whilst minor and exotic pairs can be volatile and extremely unpredictable at times.
Please also see images below for visual examples of the difference in price behaviour of the different pair types.
MAJOR PAIR & CROSS PAIR
MAJOR PAIR & EXOTIC PAIR
CROSS PAIR & EXOTIC PAIR
Which is the best currency type to trade for new traders? We will be a posting an educational article on this in the future delving into details regarding this question.
Trade safely and responsibly.
BluetonaFX
Aussie to 0.71000?Here on the D1 timeframe I see a fine Wyckoff schematic playing out (Accumulation), with just the Creek remaining to get taken out which would consequently resort to taking out the daily Highs. Just moments ago, the H4 Lows were taken, with price reacting perfectly to an M15 Point of Interest and shooting all the way up off the back of some inflation data from the United States. With this move we have a potential LPS to enter off of to take the prices long (on the H4) for a very good rally.
Why .71000?
Personally i see no sufficient imbalance on price action looking to the left that would solidify any potential reversal points before this price point; so in my eye, i see that as some buy side liquidity to be taken by the smart money up until the supply zone sitting just above the .71000 area
Hopefully this plays out beautifully, I would start looking for multiple entries once the D1 Highs are broken. Stay safe and trade safe.
And don't forget to give a follow and a like. OANDA:AUDUSD
GBPUSD adaptationThe market couldn't drop straight down to the order block at price 1.22896 because it respected the fair value gap area in order for buyers to take charge. Now we are currently within the 1h supply zone and strong reversal candlesticks are portrayed. We see both the doji and a shooting star, hence we are now interested in taking a sell to the stop order at 1.22800, however, let's wait for further information when the market opens...
Swing Idea for USDCADDisclaimer on this is not signal purely just for documentation
hidden supply zone found in lower timeframe. this supply zone also located on previous pivot making it perfect location for entry
and another odd enhancer also comes from crossing of EMA100 and 200 in 4h and 1w timeframe
Good Luck
NZDUSD Long Trade Plan✅ Potential long opportunity if we see price respect the bullish structure, preferably price remain trading above 0.69 major level.
❌ Long bias invalidated when price trading below 0.6870 level.
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Traders! if you like my ideas and do take the same trade, please write it in comment so we can manage the trade together .
Disclaimer
the content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions.
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Thank you for your support
Weekend Analysis + Market Re-cap First and foremost I hope you all had a great 2021, but I hope you have an even better 2022.
Here I am giving you my perspective on a few pairs on what I believe will happen.
I also run through AUDUSD that I am currently in.
Have a great evening and Happy New Year to you all.
Ben
Weekend Analysis + Market Re-cap Looking at a few pairs on the watch for next week.
A breakdown of a couple of trades I have taken throughout the week on EURJPY and GOLD
And we also take a look at the pairs I am looking at taking potentially for next week.
a lot of XXX?JPY pairs are on the watch for next week looking to see if we can get any long buy-side positions on them if the set up occurs.
Have a great weekend
Major Pairs Key Levels (Nov.29 - Dec.3)Hi everyone,
Hope you have enjoyed the weekend.
Every week, I mark weekly levels for each currency pair to see how price reacts to them.
As you see in the charts, I have marked the last Week's and Last Month’s Highs and Lows for the 6 major pairs (actually they are 7 but there was no room for NZADUSD, but you can do that one by yourself as a practice)
Why are these levels important to us?
Because they are kind of support and resistance levels and when price approaches to them, any breakout or rejection on these levels is very important:
(Lows act like support and Highs act like resistance)
So, take a note for yourself and apply them on your chart to have an efficient setup for key levels.
Mn : Monthly (Red Lines) , W: Weekly (Yellow Lines)
I have a bearish bias for US Dollar this week and I think we might see a weakness on it against the other currencies.
Weekend Analysis + Market Re-cap What's good traders hope you all had a great week in this video I will be breaking down some of the trades that I took and now closed, some trades that I'm still in, and some trades that I am still waiting for development to occur on before entering.
Looking at a few trades that I am currently in;
-GBPCHF
-GBPAUD
-EURUSD
Trades that I took a loss and break even on in;
Loss - EURAUD
Break Even - USDJPY
Trades Currently Looking at with potential for next week;
LONG
-AUDJPY
-AUDUSD
-CHFJPY
-NZDJPY
-USDJPY
SHORT
-EURAUD
Any questions please do let me know down below or in DMs
Have a great weekend
Market Re-cap & AnalysisWeekend analysis of the currency pairs i am watching for next weeks trading week.
Pairs I am looking at for longs are;
AUDJPY
AUDUSD
CHFJPY
NZDCHF
NZDJPY
Pairs I'm looking at for potential shorts are
EURAUD
EURNZD
USDCAD
If you have any questions about trading then I will be more than willing to give you a hand if I can just give me a message or comment and I will be sure to get back to you
Take care
Ben
Major Pairs Key Levels (Nov.8 - Nov.12)Hi everyone,
Hope you have enjoyed the weekend.
Every week, I mark weekly levels for each currency pair to see how price reacts to them.
As you see in the charts, I have marked the last Week's and Last Month’s Highs and Lows for the 6 major pairs (actually they are 7 but there was no room for NZADUSD, but you can do that one by yourself as a practice)
Why are these levels important to us?
Because they are kind of support and resistance levels and when price approaches to them, any breakout or rejection on these levels is very important:
(Lows act like support and Highs act like resistance).
So, take a note for yourself and apply them on your chart to have an efficient setup for key levels.
Mn : Monthly (Red Lines) , W: Weekly (Yellow Lines)