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EUR USD IdeaGreetings, traders! It's important to note that we're still witnessing divergences between EUR/USD and the Dollar Index. This discrepancy should serve as a cautionary signal when considering trade ideas. Our focus is currently on the 105.9 level, which corresponds to the weekly point of control. We're keenly observing this level to see if it triggers a downward reaction in the market. However, the situation remains dynamic, and there's potential for further market developments that could take us even higher. In these uncertain times, our aim is to provide you with peace of mind as you navigate the markets. Keep a close eye on the unfolding situation, and have a great trading day!
Short
by themarketknight
GBPJPY Sell This is a continuation of our GBPJPY short position , and for those of you that have followed on the previous trade this will be an extra way of further boosting your revenues. For new comers, that will be a great opportunity to further support your analysis and find some of our research and analysis useful in your trading. While analizing this currency pair we have applied support and resistence plus looked at the MACD indicator for further support to our analysis. We will be looking at a TP set to 154.191 with the possibility of adjusting the TP by applying partial closures and moving the SL to entry level.
Short
by Atlas-Horizon
2
How Inflation Affects Our Savings & Our LivesFor the past few months, we’ve heard a lot in the news about increasing living costs. The cost of our essential goods and services – from our food to our electricity bills, housing, and electronics – is constantly rising. And our salary increases (if any) aren’t enough to cover the increasing cost of our basic expenses. I wanted to write this article for several reasons. I’m not trying to paint a gloomy picture, but rather to help people better understand the situation and how increasing prices affect our lives. So, as trivial as it may sound, let’s start with the basics and the basic definition of inflation. What Is Inflation? Inflation is the decline of the purchasing power of a currency over time measured amongst a pre-selected basket of goods. Now, here’s where it gets more interesting. The root cause of inflation is an increase in the supply of money in an economy. Our local monetary authorities (Central Banks and Governments) can increase the money supply, either by printing and giving away more money to individuals, by legally devaluing the currency, or by loaning new money into existence and purchasing government bonds from banks on the secondary market. In all such cases, the supply of money increases. Thus, your living expenses increase, your purchasing power decreases, and you get less for your money. There are some exceptions to this – but we will get into that a bit later when we look at possible solutions to this phenomenon. So, now, let’s review what we’ve seen for the past year, how inflation has affected our lives, and what our governments and central banks have done about it. What Are Governments Doing? Europe – The EU member countries agreed on a Pandemic Emergency Program. It’s designed to support the economies of member countries, and it’s worth 1.8 trillion euros. That’s a little over 2 trillion dollars. America – The US has several programs designed to help its economy. The first was a 3 trillion dollar program designed to help the US overcome the difficulties of the COVID19 pandemic. There are also several other programs going to the Senate for approval, all of which will further fuel the current inflationary cycle. What Level Of Inflation Are We Currently Experiencing? Well, this is a great question. It’s also a bit tough to answer. You might think that the easiest way to measure price increases is by comparing prices at the grocery store, at the petrol station, or with your landlords. And that makes sense. But you might not all see the same level of inflation from one item to the next. This is because the official inflation figures are calculated slightly differently, and they’re based on a so-called basket of goods. In the US, this “basket of goods” is managed by the Central Statistical Office. They decide what items to include in the basket and how often to change them. So, when the US inflation was calculated at 7.00% last week (the highest recorded rate in the last four decades), this was based on that specific basket of goods. That said, we’re seeing sharp increases in the official inflation data in many countries – with the UK hitting 5.40%, 5.70% for Germany, and 36% for Turkey. This means, regardless of each country’s chosen ‘baskets’, consumers worldwide are experiencing sharp measurable price increases. The more we get into the new year, the more we find ourselves asking when this vicious cycle will end. Experts are yet to agree on what kind of inflation we’ll see in the months ahead. However, the one thing that they all seem to agree on is that inflation is here to stay for the next two to five years. What Can We Do To Protect Our Savings And Plan For A Better Financial Future? There are a few options that you can consider. For those of you who prefer to take a more traditional approach towards money, well, these options might not be for you. But let’s explore all the options available to you, regardless of your age: 1 – Savings accounts If this has worked for you previously, I’m sorry to tell you that it might not work this time. Unfortunately, putting your money in a savings account is unlikely to be your best option when it comes to protecting your savings and your hard-earned money. This is because of the meagre interest rates on offer. When measured against the official inflation figures, with a 1% interest rate, you are still likely to be losing at least 4% – 5% of your actual purchasing power. While the official inflation figures might be around 7%, the level of inflation for your specific purchases could be as high as 12% to 15%. For simplicity of calculation, let’s look at an example. Say you had 100,000 USD or EUR in a savings account with your favourite bank, you would be making a whopping 1,000 USD or EUR in interest in a year (that’s assuming you are lucky enough to get a 1% interest rate from your bank). With inflation ranging between 12% to 15%, this means that you will be down between 11% to 14%. That’s a loss of about 11,000 to 14,000 USD or EUR per year. You won’t see that reflected in your bank account as numbers, but you will feel it when you go out to purchase goods. And let’s not forget that we are entering the 2nd year of high inflation – and that means twice the potential loss in buying power. 2 – Real estate In my country, we have a saying that if a person doesn’t know what to do with their money, they put it into real estate. It might still be a good choice; it depends on how you look at money. But with real estate returning between 7% -8% gross per year and with rising maintenance costs, it still might not make up for the 12%-15% increase in inflation. You might help to make a complete evaluation – one that factors in increasing prices and that factors in the size of your investment. If there is further inflation, or if you find yourself in sudden need of money, you may find yourself selling at a less than ideal price. Again, this doesn’t mean that real estate isn’t a good investment; it can be, based on your financial goals and investment horizon. Another thing to consider when evaluating your investment options is your purchasing power. It might help to compare the purchasing power of your investment now with the possible increase in the price of the property in the future. It might also help to keep in mind that if inflation goes up by 20% over three years, for example, then your property will need to go up by more than 20% in value for you to benefit from the investment. 3 – Bonds The FED is on track to raise interest rates in 2022. So, could government bonds be the way forward? 10Y US Treasuries are often considered the benchmark for a risk-free investment. That said, they don’t usually bring high returns. Let’s assume that, in a best-case scenario, you get the kind of high annual return we saw at the beginning of the century (5%-6%). Unfortunately, it still wouldn’t be enough to beat inflation and increase your overall purchasing power. 4 – Precious Metals Precious metals, in particular gold, have always been considered a great way to protect against inflation. One thing to consider: the financial markets haven’t been reacting very well recently to the idea of the Federal Reserve keeping a hawkish mood for the next year to come. In recent years, we have noticed how the inverse correlation between the stock market and gold has partially vanished during “cold” periods of general selloff. To avoid getting liquidated on their positions on stocks, big players would rather start selling massively their positions on assets where they have gained substantial profits, as it could be on gold. The result: massive drops also on the precious metal. This means that the old-fashioned hedge against inflation might have severe volatility in price during a bear market. 5 – Cryptocurrencies Cryptocurrencies are considered the new store of value. They have recently been compared to precious metals and sometimes been referred to as digital gold, especially when we talk about the king of cryptos – Bitcoin. Bitcoin has proven to be a great store of value, providing stellar performances in the past years, closing 2021 with +57%. Investors who have been able to jump on crypto projects at early stages have been able to get stellar returns in the sphere of 3 to 4 digits percentage. The only tiny issue with cryptos is that they require a cold-blooded investor, being able to “hodl” during periods like the current one, where they have been losing across the board more than 50% of the picks. It’s an investment that requires a very high appetite for risk. Be sure to take a look at our blog for more content. And don’t miss out on our free webinars. Next up: “How to protect your crypto investment against adverse market movements”.
ECONOMICS:USCCPIEducation
by Atlas-Horizon
Bank Nifty 36300 PE 16 DEC 2021 . Dear Traders, This signal as we told yesterday is becoming zero. Many clients made huge profits. Bank Nifty 36300 PE 16 DEC 2021 . Talk to us for best signal services. Dear traders kindly follow our signals for maximum profits, our signals are based on analytics, algorithms, mathematical derivatives. Always be a responsible trader, kindly trade only when you have maximum opportunity in the market with minimum risk and with keynotes like data, analysis and proper strategies. Kindly message us for strategies and analysis.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by Tallastrading
Is there hope for Forex retail traders wanting to make money?The numbers are disastrous. Virtually all Forex retail traders lose money. Most of those that persist lose big. There is no improvement over time, no matter how many years they keep trying, and no matter how much help they get. There is no hope. How bad are really the stats? And why are they so bad? Let's look at the evidence. Citi 2014 presentation of the Retail FX market They say there are 4 million traders (implying FX), 1.6 million in Asia, 1.4 million in Europe, and 150,000 in the USA. Mainly male (shocker) and of an average age of 35. It does not add up. An AMF doc from the same period looks at 15,000 traders from intermediaries representing 50% of the market. So 30k for France and 1.4 million in Europe? Americans are into stocks so their number is much smaller as expected. An unsurprising quote from the doc: "FXCM accounts larger than $10,000 have profitability that are double the average. Part of it is likely due to the natural selection of profitable averaged-sized accounts surviving and becoming large accounts." And the CEO said in an interview the smallest accounts pushed the winrate down. This doc says "Strictly Private and Confidential" so I won't share it even though it is accessible on the ECB website. Conflicting evidence: The elusive profitable FX individual investors According to the paper linked below, a studied sample of 1,231 accounts were found to be profitable on average (0.2%). www.researchgate.net Most people feel bad, demoralized, sick to the stomach, when they hear everyone loses money trading. Me, I feel bad, disgusted, demoralized, when I hear that noobs have the ability to make money. Almost makes me want to cry. There is something really rotten about clueless casuals finding success. Yuck I can just picture them being joyful and euphoric. I don't know, I don't understand, where this data comes from. I need to wash my eyes with some IG, FXCM, and myfxbook client positions data :) I need to warm my heart by seing dumb monkeys constantly go against the trend and hold losers for weeks 😊 In this paper we do not know who the guinea pigs studied are, how long have they been in the business? What we know is how long they subscribed to a service. And the average was 0.27 years, or 3 months. Those are not your usual daygamblers as: - The average opening equity is $90,854.03 - Average Holding Time for Trades (in h) 1,508.48 (63 days or 2 months) - The average total net gain was $190.30 (0.2% of 91k), it might only be from interests So this paper does not look at average Forex retail traders at all. Stats change completely when you remove the degenerates. You look at FXCM and IG client stats, you might find 80% short on a big uptrend, then you look at myfxbook - which attracts all the "robot trading" clowns, and 95% are short! The more daygamblers and "automated expert advisor 🤡" and 800 leveragers you have, the worse the stats. Remove all these 🤡, and sure then you get a totally different result. Conflicting evidence: 99% of noobs lose money, now that's what I like to hear A Forex website with 120,000 subscribers at the time (mostly FX traders) surveyed in 2020 3,127 Forex traders from 32 countries. 97% of respondents trade Forex, 43% Gold, 24% stock indices, and 9% cryptocurrencies. Half of users surveyed are 25 to 34 years old, mostly men, and 1 in 4 is 35 to 44. Roughly consistent with other stats, a bit younger. 72% of the Forex traders surveyed are fresh noobs, they had no previous experience before FX. The retail "traders" surveyed are a tad bit delusional, as 50% of Americans, 59% of Asians, 44% of Europeans, 42% of Oceanians and aye aye aye 100% of Africans think they can achieve more than 5% monthly returns. Between 1 in 2 and 1 in 3, and even 88% of Africans, think they can make more than 10% monthly. Typical stats: 53% have been trading for less than a year, I assume those are the "5% to over 10% monthly" types? 39% have been trading for 1-3 years, 7% for 4-10 years, and 1% for more than 10. The success rates (I believe this is self-reported): Conflicting evidence: Run for your lives! Forex is an evil scam! This may sound like an exaggeration, but I have the video. A lady from the french regulator, on television, was screaming "YOU HAVE TO FLEEEE FOREX DON'T YOU GET IT. R.U.N. A.W.A.Y!!!" In the AMF report "Étude des résultats des investisseurs particuliers sur le trading de CFD et de Forex en France" they come up with scary stats. Close to 90% of traders lost money in the 2009-2012 period, and even the more experienced ones that traded for the entire period (48 months) lost money at 87.56%. They have a graph "losses by leverage" but nowhere on that graph is indicated leverage... And of course there is no distinction between day gamblers and the rest, as their goal is to scare people away. You cannot say I am biased towards defending Forex, you know how much I LOVE watching noobs break their teeth. Honestly, this doc is pretty bad, and just pointless fearmongering with nothing to learn that we don't already know (90% lose money). In a BOJ doc I saw that around 90% of individual "investors" were day gamblers. Explains why 90% lose money. Ok so retail loses money when day trading I get it, but then how do institutional traders make money intraday? What is their secret? Simple. They don't. That's the big secret. There are other sets of data, like what FXCM did for us a few years ago, showing that traders with a risk to reward of 1:1 or more were greatly more profitable than bagholders with high winrate (3.12 times as much): "Of the traders who traded 1:1 or higher risk-reward, 53% turned a profit; of those who didn't, 17% turned a profit." Also they show 40% of their traders with 5:1 or less leverage make money, compared to 17% of the ones with > 25:1, and the ones that do make profit with this leverage probably only made a small deposit compared to their net worth. For obvious reason you'll never hear from a broker the correlation between day gambling or not and profitability. I heard from someone that worked at FXCM that they tried looking for an edge from their biggest losers, all that they found is they overtraded, this is again something you'll rarely hear from brokers for obvious reasons. In the end all we can take out from all of this, is some win, most lose. There is at least some little improvement with experience. "Intraday" Gamblers and leverage gamblers are gigantic losers that destroy the stats, as most of us I am sure already knew. And as Locke and Mann (2000) show in a study "there is evidence that trading success is negatively related to the degree of loss realization aversion." Might also want to add: Be a one trick! Warren Buffett is one big fat OTP that only value invest in blue chip US stocks in sectors he understands. 1 market. 1 strategy. And he is doing rather well unlike all the loud mouths with zero life medals that say he "misses out".
Education
by MrRenev
4
Bitcoin Double Bottom continuesDear patrons, This is my new analysis and update on BTC moving up in the chains. We bottomed out at 17650. On my last post I noted that I entered this trade at 17850 to hopefully get some solid bounce to the upside, and set my stop losses in the 17650 area. Continued to today I am riding this upside, we clearly passed the neckline of the double bottom and now we have a new support. I moved my stop losses up to the zone where if the neck line breaks then we will have some profit. Currently we are testing the 18800 resistance. Wait for conformations on the four hour candles to assume breakouts, etc. Note: if you miss a double bottom, you can always purchase the breakout above the neckline (circled in purple). I also circled the zone of which I entered which is the bottom. Another thing to consider on the chart, Red is stop loss, Blue lines are key supports and resistances. hopefully we can get some more upside to this trend. Please like and share, my last analysis was pretty accurate, we can all make money together! happy trading :) When a man falls he can get up, when a leaf falls it is stepped on. -The one and only, fallingleaf
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Thefallingleaf
EUR/NZD: +65 And It's Still Melting! The Perfect SetupWrite to me guys in the comments if you entered with me and share your profits This is an educational + analytic content that will teach why and how to enter a trade Make sure you watch the price action closely in each analysis as this is a very important part of our method Disclaimer : this analysis can change at anytime without notice and it is only for the purpose of assisting traders to make independent investments decisions
Short
by FX_Elite_Club