The Liquidity GrabI'm going to do my best here at explaining the basics around a liquidity grab (some times called a stop hunt), why it happens and how it works (ignore the chart I'm using, I'm not saying this is a manipulated move just showing you an example of how it works)
I often refer to this in my playbook as an STL "Sweep The Legs" coupled with a picture of Johnny Lawrence from the karate kid lol
First you need to understand that Big money plays a different game to retail.
When you want to place a buy order at a specific price point, lets say your buying a thousands dollars worth of BTC @ $30,000, you can put an order in and boom it gets hit your filled and your ready to go to the moon.
Now imagine some bigger traders who play with a lot more money than you, lets say there order is more like a billion dollars.
Well in order for them to fill there position, there needs to be a large amount of selling at that level other wise they may only get a small piece filled...... theeeeeen of course the price moves away and your priced out of the market (imagine putting your $1000 order in, only getting $10 of it filled and then having the price moon....yeah it would suck)
They do not want to chase candles or buy up the order book, thats just not good business, and if you have to do that in order to get your orders filled thats a good indication that there is already liquidity issues within this market and you may have a similar problem trying to cover of your position later on.
So these players some times need to hunt down and find or even artificially create liquidity pools for them to take a big bite at like pigs at the trough.
One of the easiest ways to do that is to look for the most obvious levels of support with in a trend of sideways channel and look at the buying thats happening on that level.
If we dont get an instant recovery or bounce at that level it can normally indicate price being trapped or held down in order to encourage more retail to "buy the dip" or buy on support as these are some of the most basic tools and strategies taught to retail traders.
Now one thing to remember when all of these traders/investors are in there positions from this level, there will be a large number of these traders protecting capital with stop losses, normally under the level they where buying at.
This now created a liquidity pool...... You see every stop loss on a BUY order, becomes a SELL order, and with so many BUY orders created and entered at a specific level that means the stop loss orders are stacking more and more on top.
Think about it like this, if we hit 30k and someone buys $1m worth, that means there is possibly a SELL order (via a stop loss) of roughly 1m under that level.... now we hit that 30k level again, and someone buys some more, maybe another $1m worth... well now there is roughly $2m worth of SELL orders in that stop loss zone. Hit that 30k super sweet safe support level 5 or 6 times and all the sudden you could have 8-10m worth of SELL orders at a single price point below support.
Now if I wanted to enter this market long and I had 10m order to fill, it would make sense for me to run the price down to clip these stop losses creating a large amount of selling straight into my pig of a buy order.
Once my orders filled I can stop holding the price down and let the price begin to organically rise again, this often creates fomo for all the retailers who just got knocked out of there trades from "tight stop losses" to chase the market back in only adding to the momentum and mark up of my position.
The same thing can happen in vice versa when they are covering or exiting a position as well, and its often followed by a square up to reduce or remove the risk taken on to manipulate the price during there accumulation or distribution of there order, more specially into a short position as they take on more exposure to the underlying asset to manipulate the price, in a long there exposure is fiat and there isnt any need to cover. (ill explain square up in detail next time)
This is often what is referred to as a liquidity grab and its how big players enter the market, they do not chuck a limit order in on Binance and hope for the best...
I hope that made sense and added some value, but if you have any questions please chuck them below
Manipulation
GBPUSD Mid Term Directional Bias Following Consolidation
Expection : After manipulating major area of retail support, I believe that GBPUSD will reverse and target the areas of Equal Highs that has been left behind on top. Only if the level of Equal Highs on top is reached I will then be looking for shorting opportunity.
Supply&Demand Perspective : Area of strong demand which the market hasn't mitigated before is now approached. This hints towards a reversal. Beware, there needs to be shift of direction from bearish to bullish in Lower time frames to validify the Demand Zone. If correct conditions for buys are justified on Lower time frame then I will enter.
Fundemental Basis : Wednesday High impact GBP CPI news and USD FOMC Statement is going to provide gush of liquidity and major runs to the upside can be looked for. This is because USD fundamentals are dovish Long term. Optimistic GBP news as expectations are better for the CPI numbers also makes it likely to aid bullish run GBPUSD in the upcoming week or so.
Legal Risk Disclosure ❗❗
Trading foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors.
The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor.
BTC PATH TO SUCCESS? - CHECK THIS!How's it going, Alkalites! Today we bring you good news, as BTC crossed the $40k psychological area!
Regarding technicals, we can see that Bitcoin is fighting against retail oscillators sentiment, respecting our last psychological levels. We could expect some struggle with the 4H 200 EMA, if BTC closes above it, we could see some bearish relief.
Bitcoin fundamentals have played a big role in these green numbers. Elon Musk has gradually adjusted his sentiment from bearish to slightly bullish, and the last news about BTC being accepted by Tesla again just triggered some nice profits.
BTC.D has shown some strength in the last rally, which means that it is outperforming Altcoins. If it crosses the 50% psychological area, we may see a new cycle starting, which could be the greatest buying scenario for alternative projects.
In this scenario, we have released our exposure, as we were protecting it against bearish fundamental sentiment, which is vanishing. We advise our members to do it gently to avoid FOMOing into volatility. Alkaline Crypto will be releasing analysis and trade ideas about our new Altcoin Portfolio soon.
Wishing you a wonderful week, Alkalites!
BTC/USDT FUD vs NEWS = DIP... WHY? (ill explain)BINANCE:BTCUSDT
MAJOR HAPPENINGS FOR THIS WEEK (so far)
We received the head and shoulders that we thought will be the breakout to a bull cycle monthly back to bull season.
We did not make it we dip instead ABCDE Elliot contraction wave.
Then FUD came in how FBI tracked the wallets and crack the words
(STUP1D AF guys i've been in the crypto since 2013 no one did ever crack a wallet *proof go to deep web scammers are there saying they can hack wallets and shit but won't and they will say they can't; you are just that naïve that time and I as well got scammed back then for it 2014)
El Salvador - The #BitcoinLaw has been approved by a supermajority in the Salvadoran Congress.
I AM EXPECTING THIS
New FUD coming in; New personality will just emerge and say shit about Bitcoin.
We will not or may not break 36K that's why I am still bearish.
We will go back to 30K and why 30k is significant now? it is because it is where the market dump (zoom out check the Elon FUD)
I am still looking at the 24K. Why? because of the hype pump from 2000-3000 price BTC to upwards.
I cannot and will not be able to see things but these are all just Psyche.
One TOOL you need and for you sure that will work = PATIENCE...
I will never say on my charts to continue accumulating. But what I can only say is Continue being in the chart and continue playing with it.
You will learn by going through this hard times 1 month 2 months of pain and sorrow to Anger and then you would know something is coming HOPE after a long long depression...
I've been trading since 64K dump and failed to sell that point but sold at 56K when it traced back and never turn my back. you still won.
SO WHAT WE ARE NOW HAVING IS...
Weekends = Blood on the streets.
Dagger Hours are very critical. Watch out those VOL that will not support the 4HR and down 1HR 30min and 15min CHECK also the MA make sure to have 20 50 150 200
never let 200 and 50 Cross = Death cross.
TWITTER INTERESTING CHARTS - twitter.com = S2F Chart - Blackswan Momentum or pattern.
We are not in Bull nor Bear Market, we are in Elon MarketLet's thank another billionnaire for ruining our 21th Century's hope of Freedom !
Just like every Prophet, Satoshi Nakamoto gave us a chance to change our world in a better place, he vanished but his work stood.
People started to fight eachother to impose their vision of BTC. It was all about greed :
We got a useless copy of BTC : the LTC, then Bitconnect, then others useles copies, BCH, BSV...
We got altcoins,
We got shitcoin, many shitcoin.
Then we got leverage, people started being ultra greedy.
Then we got meme coins that people respect more than altcoins.
Finally a billionnaire came, and everybody listened to him blindly , it was the beginning of the end !
Satoshi Nakamoto wanted to give us freedom, but people prefered lambos, yacht, drugs, and women. At the end of the journey, all they got is liquidation, congratulation sheeps ! Karma always win !
Let me know your vision of the future of crypto !
CADJPY, Long Opportunity - 1:5 and 1:14 availableGood afternoon ladies & gents,
After spending 3 days in consolidation, accumulating and collecting orders. CJ is now ready to displace higher to take out the monthly equal highs where a large pool of liquidity lies around the 91.500-92.000 level.
I'm looking for price to trade back down into the H1 Bullish Orderblock, where I'll be looking for a long.
Initial target is the high of the H4 range, secondary target will be the Monthly Equal Highs.
Let's do this.
- AmplaFX
USDCHF Long, 1:6 availableGood morning ladies & gents,
I believe USDCHF is ready for its bullish cycle going up, although there are many significant targets to the upside, I will trade this pair in chunks as its better for capital efficiency.
After moving out of its low yesterday, USDCHF is sat in Level 1 Long.
Price has traded down into the H1 Mitigation Block which overlays with the M30 Bullish Orderblock, from here I'm anticipating a lower timeframe break of market structure to the upside, followed by a retest where I'll be looking to take it long with these 3 objectives above as my targets.
Let's see how it plays out!
- AmplaFX
Blatant markedmanipulation by norwegian newspaper FinansavisenThis stock recieved a unnatural "pump" after the norwegian newspaper Finansavisen published a "10x bull case" regarding this stock.
Public policy announcements as a market manipulation toolDear fellow investors,
As you have all noticed, the latest announcements from the CCP have had a material adverse impact on the price of BTC. However, let us all remember that the CCP has made similar announcements regularly in the past 8 years and that those have never been been followed by any form of implementation whatsoever. In fact, most Chinese retail traders, miners and crypto finance firms are currently consolidating their positions or entering into long transactions.
One can only question the regularity of the CCP's announcements regarding an incoming BTC ban:
- Once in a while, when the BTC price is high, the CCP announces a BTC ban and Chinese whales conveniently happen to sell whole chunks of BTC at the very same moment;
- BTC price plunges as a result of the CCP's announcements;
- The Chinese whales buy BTC back at a discount;
- The circus repeats itself.
This well-rounded process seems to be nothing more that a very easy way for CCP to transfer money from foreign investors' pockets to Chinese investors' pockets. One could almost say that false public policy announcements spread as fast as Covid-19 did.
Now, you know what happens next: buy the dip... and HODL!
USD/CAD manipulation shortwe all know markets tend to follow liquidity , situations like this happen much often on every time frame , mostly on key levels such as s/r levels , they could be small as 10-20 pips on small timeframes , but when we are looking at these major timeframes weekly and monthly , we should smell something fishy , I've noticed every idea regarding USD/CAD are long on this pair , now if a big bank , institution hedge fund etc... were to long this pair they would get a good price with all these long orders just sitting around?for sure no, they would receive the worst price, now in order to get filled in the best price they would have to get rid of those longs to open the road for their ''huge' orders , now since we are on a weekly TF most likely we have some big swingers on this pair and lets say on average they would place a 1:7 risk reward targeting the swing high , that would make their stoploss around 400 pips , now imagine of every 1 short there are 10 longs so we have majority of stops are at a -400 pip level , plus having those ''aggressive'' longs with a 600-800 pip stop loss , in my opinion we are most likely going to witness something close to the 2015 EUR/CHF situation where price flashed 2000 pips in a couple of minutes even those with stop losses didnt get triggered , if i were you i would stay away from this pair for a while cause if a sudden situation was to happen even your stoploss wouldn't save you.
BTC - The #@$*&@! is Over (We Hope) - So What is Next?Summary : Bitcoin is currently painting a short term bear flag within a long term bull flag. The correction of the past few weeks led Bitcoin to a strong support with the possibility of a bullish breakout, but no matter the direction of breakout, I envision some consolidation between the 30k and 40k ranges first as this is a very good opportunity for MM/whales to accumulate more Bitcoin before the next leg up. If we do see another prolonged accumulation, watch for occasional bullish breakouts, the well-timed fud in the news, and small corrections to shake off paper hands so they can accumulate more Bitcoin. This is invalidated if we close below 35k, which could lead to deeper corrections.
Details : Bitcoin is trending down in the final leg of a corrective five-wave pattern started in March. On a smaller timeframe it is painting a 2 week long series of corrections-turned-bull flag; and we are looking for Bitcoin to break above the resistance at the top of the channel but until it does expect it to continue down this flag.
Given that 38k is forming a short term floor in this range, the next drop down could bounce from there towards a potential bullish breakout from the bull flag. I don't envision a strong breakout in either direction and strongly suspect that no matter how it breaks, we'll see consolidation between one of two ranges. I provided a bearish and bullish scenario, each with a ~10% range of volatility to move within before it's next big move, probably not before June.
When will we leave the 30k-40k range? Bitcoin could consolidate here for anywhere from 1 week to several months. I say 1 week because historically the 4th week of the month, in this cycle, is when Bitcoin breaks bullish. I also say it could be longer because consolidating here is a very good buying opportunity that I don't expect MM to give up quickly. That said, there is a small possibility of an early bullish breakout over 50k this week, due to entering an aggressive correction a little earlier in May accelerating the monthly cycle and wiping some stagnation from the Bitcoin price actions.
What to watch for? First look for a breakout and confirmation from this bull flag. Once we break into one of the two ranges, look for the consolidation pattern to firm up before entering trades. Keep an eye on the 45k and 35k lines because breaking past either will indicate strong sentiment in that particular direction.
Note that long term I'm still bullish but never, ever rule out the possibility of deeper corrections or drops . While I think this is only a mid-cycle correction and dump, with the possibility of a short term bear cycle in the larger bull market, always trade safely. If you can't bring yourself to set a daily rolling stoploss, then once every few days/weekly set a stoploss at the high price from the week before.
BITCOIN PRICE REVERSAL INCOMINGGood morning, Alkalites! After the volatility faced because of Elon Musk speculation, we will show you our general analysis of the market.
Fear and Greed index is displaying 20% Fear right now. One of the lowest sentiment results recorded in the current bull run.
Algorithmic and retail trading induced by market sentiment is slowly dumping Bitcoin prices. So we analysed order books looking for long-term orders.
If the current sentiment continues, Bitcoin price should restart the previous trend in the long-term buy area between 43k and 38k. If not, we could see prices going further down.
As stated yesterday in our channel, CryptoAlkaline will do its best to protect our positions with hedging techniques if needed.
See you in our CryptoAlkaline Channel in Telegram!
BTC - Possible Recovery or Breakdown TargetsQuick Notes : I am providing potential bullish and bearish targets for the next 24-48 hours. Closing at or above bullish recovery targets today will signal the possibility of a mid-cycle correction and continuation of the bull market. Failure to close at or above the bullish targets will lend weight to the possibility of a bear cycle or full-on bear market starting. If the price breaks down further, I provided the next few targets/support zones but will be surprised if it closes below 40k in a bearish scenario.
------
What a rollercoaster ride. First let me say that this is a stressful time- everyone is wondering "is the bull cycle over?" "is this a mid cycle slump?" "is Elon to blame?" ... the answer to all of that is, in my opinion,"maybe... but it doesn't matter." We have to trade on the price action/charts at the end of the day. And right now the charts are presenting two possibilities, or directions from here:
>> Scenario 1- Bullish Recovery: I posted two targets that we need to close on to consider Bitcoin in a recovery mode. First is the 20/21w Bull Cycle MA; second is the support zone we blew past in our drop on the 12th around 52.8-53k.
Failure to recapture these targets make the possibility of a bear cycle or bear market much more likely. The first task is to recapture the 20/21w Bull Cycle supports (bull recovery target 1).Historically these are retested but respected in a bull market.
Interesting was seeing the daily candle close -exactly- at the 20w SMA, before continuing to drop, retest the 200 EMA and bounce. In earlier cycles we saw a lot of wicks under the 20/21w Bull Cycle MAs, but only a single instance with the daily closing under it, in 2013. The fact that we closed yesterday exactly at the 20w SMA indicates whales/MM may respect this support.
Bottom Line for a Possible Bull Recovery: Today is the real test- whales/MM don't want to buy into retail weakness if this is a mid-cycle correction, because they want to accumulate for the next leg of the bull market. So if we see the price stabilize over those MA, and we see healthy outflows, that will signal to me that the bull market is simply preparing for the next leg up.
>> Scenario 2- Bearish Breakdown: I posted the next target if the price continues to breakdown. Our next support is between 38-40k. This is where we broke out after the February "Tesla/Elon candle." It is also the next strongest support zone. Today I could see possibly wicking to that range and bouncing back, but failure to find support will see continued drops with 32-36k as our strongest support of this cycle and likely the lowest practical target for a correction or a bear cycle (in my opinion).
Given that we succesfully tested the 200 MA, we may see a double bottom there and bounce back to retest the 20/21w MAs, but with the possibility of rejecting there and dropping again. In any case be prepared for further drops if we close the day under the 20/21w MAs, and if we drop below 40k, look for support around 36k and lower at 32k.
Bottom Line for Possible Bearish Breakdown: The lower we go, or if we close below the 20/21w MAs, or if we break under the 200 MA, the odds of a bear market increase dramatically.
--
Other Notes :
First a little context, because I think this important- When Elon tweeted the other day, that wasn't the primary reason for the dump. In fact I would consider it less of a trigger, and more of something an insider knew of, and took advantage of; let me explain-
Unknown to a lot of traders is that hours before his tweet, someone moved ~20,000 Bitcoins to exchanges and started to quietly nudge the price down. This was the largest single inflow of Bitcoins to exchanges in over 3 years. That is a LOT of Bitcoin.
You can observe a gentle downtrend after those coins hit the exchanges, but interestingly BTC price actually appears to start recovering in the hour after Elon tweets, before an unexpected and very aggressive price drop that blew through multiple supports.
Of course its hard to prove anything, such is life when trading cryptocurrencies. Insider trading, pump and dumps, hackers, and the numerous challenges of regulating a decentralized speculative market. But if we were to speculate- someone with insider information either unknown to Elon/Tesla, or in coordination with them, setup the market for a significant drop.
i.ibb.co <--- brief summary of timelines for that dump on the 12th.
Now we have to acknowledge that Bitcoin was already struggling, its price action was weak after months of consolidation and a correction was probably due. But that dump was far from natural and almost certainly the result of that large inflow of Bitcoin.
Okay - so you are asking why dump big bags, are they offloading for bear cycle? Well oddly enough if you look at exchange outflows (meaning people buying Bitcoin and moving it off exchanges), and you look at the exchange reserves (meaning how much Bitcoin is sitting on exchanges right now), and you look at the industry investment (over the counter-OTC) purchases- it paints a mostly bullish picture.
You do not see big money offloading Bitcoin, you do not see a massive selloff and you see OTC investment continuing. I honestly think the MM saw weakness in the retail market, and needed to reset market sentiment, and take the opportunity for cheaper Bitcoin to stock up before the next leg. HOWEVER- that doesn't mean that I am right. I am not a financial advisor, I am not a 10 year Bitcoin trader. So apply risk management and trade only what you are comfortable with.
AMC (SHORT LADDER ATTACK)Just because the price is going down does not necessarily translate to retail investors selling. This could be due to short ladder attacks. Short ladder attacks are manipulation tactics used by hedge funds to engineer FOMO. It is done when hedge funds keep selling to each other back and forth giving the illusion that price is heading lower, but in reality they are buying and selling to each other and lower the bid each time. They are purposely. Buying at a high price, selling and re-buying at a lower bid to scare people into selling more. the fact that we even rose 20% is a testament to the fact that people still believe in this movement.
source:
marketrealist.com
seekingalpha.com
NANO MANIPULATION APPROACHYay, it's Friday! Our big-boys watchlist seems mixed today! Let's see how mid and low-caps tokens behave today!
This week, we have spotted big spikes in volume on some small-cap tokens. As we said yesterday, things are getting interesting. Those volume spikes may be responsible for the short-term manipulation that we were able to observe in BTC and ETH. That is blatantly occurring in other assets as well.
Today we are placing limit orders to start adding NANO. With a Fully Diluted Market Cap of 1Billion, we believe it has incredible long term potential since we have found an interesting use case for payments.
Through our manipulation approach, you can see where we expect whales to enter the market. You should follow the DCA strategy, but we have found that by providing manipulation insights, we can refine our entries as much as possible.
Nano offers secure and free transactions quickly. Would you use Nano on a daily basis?
Do your own research, Nano
Have a wonderful day, Alkalites.
Check our FREE Telegram Channel TODAY!