Manipulation
BITCOIN WHALES COME UP FOR AIR. #2021 has just begunHere you see what happens when we have a bitcoin shortage, and more whales are looking to enter the market. This seems to be pure manipulation so that whale cultists can get in at a lower prices. Price may keep going down, but I wouldn't panic folks, as it will most likely recover soon. HODL for the win baby!
GBP/JPY Long Setup / Trend Continuation / Retail ManipulationI am liking the look of this potential setup we can see retail accumulation in the form of relative equal highs and a consolidation range breakout. The target would be the 2 daily highs as many people would be leaving their stop losses above this area. Enter at your own risk.
Possible BULLISH and BEARISH scenarios for the CORN. Potential "W" formation forming here.
Looking for a bounce at 81.8% FIB RT, followed by a candle body close above the 50% ($34.5) to confirm a "W" bottom pattern and BULLISH CONTINUATION.
If PA does not close (1hr min) above the 50% (local) FIB RT, the probability of a move down to support at $19.5 becomes much more likely.
A 1hr close below the 81.8% FIB RT (local) would add confidence in the BEARISH SCENARIO playing out (Head and Shoulders) with a 34.5% corrective move.
There is a lot of confluence supporting the BEARISH CASE here with a retracement down to $20K, but the FUNDAMENTALS are screaming "THIS ISN'T OVER UNTIL THE FAT WHALE SINGS".
The only thing to do here is to WAIT for identifiable structure to develop. If this is indeed an ACCUMULATION CYLINDER prepping for a HUGE MOVE to the upside, PA should start showing some bullish signs soon.
Things to consider:
BULLISH:
- DXY rejected at the 90% resistance and is currently below the 21DEMA (90.2% INDEX) and could be headed much lower
- TOTAL MKCP has fallen under $1TRILLION
- BOND Market continues its DIVE to the downside, down 1.6% since 08JAN21
- Guggenheim Investments' N1-A is effective 31JAN21 (www.sec.gov)
- Retail FOMO is just getting started
BEARISH:
- MPI is showing a local top
- Last RE TEST of 21 WEMA was 21SEP20
- Strong (RSI) BEARISH DIVERGENCE on the weekly SPX
Can USDCAD break the upper structure?here we have a nice descending and condensing structure. a quick look at the MACD shows us that this sell off looks to be tiring.
We have already seen a break of the larger structure, now we need to see that the smaller patterns bottom holds, and find a break of the upper structure to look for long opportunities. Smaller targets are potential for now and can easily move should this smaller correction continue to form. If we see a new low form, then the larger targets will move down a little in ratio to the new low. Fibs will show us this and i will reapply them should I need to.
USDCAD - Liquidity AttackThis pair has been horrible to trade, it is caught in a very ugly looking range that keeps teasing us with structure shifts.
I won't be interested in trading this pair until we get a clear breakout or a scoop manipulation as illustrated. Until then we must sit on our hands and look for trades elsewhere.
The majority of retail is buying USDCAD according to sentiment, that is why I am more inclined on trading the manipualtion scoop.
GBPJPY - New TargetThe Brexit agreement created a lot of optimism for the pound which impacted the sentiment and introduced retail buyers into the market.
If you pay close attention, you will notice that two sets of liquidity have now been purged, potentially giving the banks enough volume to create the next upside move.
The first liquidity hunt was the push past resistance hunting sellers, then we had a push below resistance hunting break and re-test buyers.
Hopefully that will be enough manipulation for us to get a good opportunity next week to push the pound into the 142.500 region.
Solutions 30 - Recovery to 16€Since the "big short" from Muddy Waters Capital, Lansdowne Partners, and Gladstone Capital Mgt, Solutions 30 seen its market capitalisation divided by 2, based on an anonymous letter, targeting Mr. Gianpebbi Fortis (Solutions 30 current CEO) in some illegal activities (source AFP December 2020)
As a response, the company opened their door to independent audit and brought up a trial amendment to the AMF (French MArket authority) for market manipulations towards Muddy Waters.
As a matter of fact, this anonymous letter - true or fake - allowed several hedge funds to make a +50% profit in few days (www.quivad.fr) by short-selling the share shortly after the letter release.
As of now, short-sellers still have to unwind their short positions, totalling for up to 4% of total supply.
Moreover, even though the letter tends to turn right, at worst the CEO would face legal issues, but the company would still be operating.
Currently price recovery from 10 to 16€ is in progress, while independent audit to be released circa Q2-2021. At this point, a short-squeeze would be expected, and a price up to 20€ would be on the table.
BUY 10-11€ and wait for independent audit release + hedge funds to unwind their positions (see url www.quivad.fr to onitor short-sellers)
TARGET 16€ Q1-2020 to 20€ once audit released.
Bitcoin Correction DiscussionHope all your trading is going well
Trading is tough right now.. the dips are more shallow and direction does not always make sense.
Case in point, this morning's correction
IT WAS NOT DEEP ENOUGH
Reasons why the whales did not prevail... my theories:
Too much good news today
- Moderna Vaccine nearly approved
- Tesla about to be on Wall Street
- Endless news about institutional investors jumping in
- Their boasts of 400k BTC moonshot in 5 minutes (kidding, really 2 yrs)
- US Stimulus deal in Senate at zero hour
This means the insane retail bull investors.. like you and I... are fixated on UP UP UP
Yes, I think we will pass 25k.. but a pullback needs to happen now first
ETH??? Has no excuse not to run to $ 1000.
Even the Pro TA's on the best web sites, are scratching their heads.
I watched the fall in price closely
If the whales are involved.. they are using software with sparing coin amounts
It's like tickling the dragon of BTC price
EURUSD - the big shortThe institutional investors have being accumulating short positions since October 2020, now the price is located in a very important zone where a 1000 pip movement would be the maximum potential that I give to this short opportunity. This is the types of trades that could last several months.
Grayscale's Holiday Massacre of BTCA Bitcoin Holiday Massacre?
It's a Grayscale pump. Our team is willing to disclose it now.
All you need to do is dig through their 8-k reports and quarterly reports, then pair it up with price action. It takes a little work to match it all up, which is why you don't see anybody talking about it.
And frankly, the motivation to go that far was more from our ai trading machine Jarvis. It was basically telling us to look at something without saying it.
So here's what we found...
The market price we see today is a direct result of the massive inflow seen into Grayscale from six months ago.
But here’s the thing…
That effect from the massive inflow ends near the end of the year. Combine that with low levels of liquidity due to the very nature of the holiday season and profit taking before the year closes out… The stage is set for a Bitcoin Holiday Massacre.
Now to understand why inflows and the time period of six months matters, let's pull back the curtain on Grayscale a bit.
Grayscale is an entity of the Digital Currency Group who has cornered the market, accumulating a total of 536k BTC to date.
Their unique structure is what makes it possible. It’s essentially one way. BTC and USD flow in, and nothing comes out.
Here’s their holdings over time: www.theblockcrypto.com
The way they achieve this one way flow is in the way they dole out shares. Accredited investors or 'wealthy individual' can sign up for a Private Placements to receive shares.
These accredited investors can then give BTC or USD to Grayscale. In exchange Grayscale gives them equal value of shares. If each share equals 0.001 BTC (In reality it’s 0.00095085) then for every BTC handed over to Grayscale, the accredited investor receives 1000 GBTC shares.
The catch is the private investor must wait six months before selling the shares on the market… to the non accredited retail investor. The not so wealthy investor.
It might seem fair, the exchange of shares for BTC, but in reality its anything but fair. That’s because GBTC almost always trades at a premium. Retail non accredited investors looking for a pure play into BTC within the stock market are paying anything but fair value.
For example. Yesterday GBTC closed at $28.25. Bitcoin according to the BraveNewCoin Liquid Index closed at $22,830. At 0.00095085 BTC per share, fair value for GBTC is $21.71. That’s a 30% premium just because the buyer isn’t wealthy. And that’s a 30% premium going straight to the accredited investor who handed over their BTC.
It gets worse…
Periodically Grayscale closes its offering for some time before allowing more investors to buy new shares. Once these new offerings start, the six month countdown begins.
Once the countdown is over we see over the last two years solid evidence that the market suddenly jolts higher almost every single time. That’s right… the spot market gets driven higher shortly after the newly minted shares can hit the market.
Don’t believe me? Well, before I show you comb through the chart above and its 51 different lines and arrows (yes, I counted... but am a bit sleepy so could be off by a few) let me first add in that six months prior to bitcoin jumping past $14,000 the largest inflow happened at Grayscale. And it happened over months, not a week. That's what those boxes represent.
Now that the six months are up as of November 2nd the market has been rallying hard. Not to mention Wall Street fund managers are suddenly changing their tone.
Here's the thing. The large inflow of capital into Grayscale paused the week of June 29th. Meaning for most of July there were no inflows according to the most recent quarterly report. Six months from then is December 29th.
The holiday season might experience the first major correction of this bull market. Professional traders will be on break, market makers will be less active and Wall Street not in the office... It's a recipe for lower volumes and lower levels of liquidity. Combine this will natural profit taking measures that can happen before the New Year and no new shares getting dole out, we're setting up for an environment poised for a correction.
Key:
Blue vertical lines represent inflows resuming
Purple lines represent when the 6 month lock up is over from the date inflows resumed
White line is the pump after the lock up is over
The two boxes represent the largest inflow time period and unlocking period
Horizontal arrows help connect each blue line to the corresponding purple line.
ALTCOINS are not significantly different from Bitcoin as to TAMany traders avoid trading ALTCOINS altcoins (indecent title: SHITCOINS), because of their small caps, which are easily manipulated.
This is true in small time frames, such as 15 minutes and 30 minutes. In a higher time frames, it may be different. Because almost all crypto currencies are following Bitcoin in the first place for most of the time, manipulating currency prices does not always succeed.
Take TFUEL as an example, the blue->green signals have alerted three bottoms. It seems that to manipulate price is not always easy.
DISCLAIMER
This is only a personal opinion and does NOT serve as investing NOR trading advice.
Please make your own decisions and be responsible for your own investing and trading Activities.
Whales swinging BTC market to daytradeI watched these movements in real time on aggr trade. It is a few of the same large actors putting in large buy orders, spurring fomo so people buy the "breakout," then, at whatever seems the top, they sell all at once. We saw this at large scale several times recently near ATH pushes.
These are not organic price movements, it is the result of bored whales daytrading and scalping. Eventually, people are going to stop reacting to these false breakouts, and we will have to find an actual organic support.
Whales are taking profits. This means they intend to buy lower in the near future. Ergo, BTC price will correct lower in the near future.
Not financial advice. Not a professional financial adviser. Opinion and entertainment only.