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Pound falls, US inflation jumpsGBP/USD has reversed directions on Thursday, giving up most of the gains from a day earlier. In the North American, session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3132, down 0.41% on the day. In the US, headline CPI continued to accelerate, with a gain of 7.9% for February YoY. This matched the forecast and was up from 7.5% beforehand. With inflation running close to 8%, a rate hike is a virtual given at next week's Federal Reserve meeting. What happens after that is less clear, as the Fed has to worry about stagflation, given the massive upswing in oil prices. The markets had priced in six rate hikes this year, but the turbulence due to the Ukraine crisis and the staggering rise in oil prices will translate into the Fed being more cautious about future rate hikes. Earlier today, a meeting between the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine earlier today did not result in any breakthroughs, although the sides agreed to continue to meet. The fighting continues, and with the Russian invasion force appearing to have stalled, there are fears that Russian President Putin could double down in frustration and hit more civilian targets. This would exacerbate the massive humanitarian crisis due to the Russian invasion, which has already affected millions of Ukrainians. The markets will be treated to a data dump from the UK on Friday. The highlights include the January reports for GDP and Manufacturing Production. GDP is expected to jump 9.3% YoY, following a 6.5% gain in December. Manufacturing Production is forecast to accelerate to 3.1%, compared to 1.3% beforehand. Strong readings would be further indication that the UK economy continues to improve, with the next BoE rate meeting just a week away. GBP/USD has broken through support at 1.3146. Below, there is support at 1.3057 There is resistance at 1.3249 and 1.3380
by yesfish
1
NZ dollar slips, mfg. sales nextThe New Zealand dollar has started the week in negative territory. NZD/USD is down 0.50%, and is trading at 0.6825 in the North American session. The currency enjoyed its best week since August 2021, with gains of 1.75%. The war in Europe has drained risk appetite, but the kiwi, although sensitive to risk, is also a commodity-based currency, and has moved higher on the wings of soaring commodity prices. New Zealand releases Manufacturing Sales for Q4 on Tuesday. After a weak Q3 release of -2.2%, a positive reading could give NZD/USD a boost. The war in Ukraine has understandably taken over the news, overshadowing the economic calendar. Still, investors are also keeping an eye on key releases, and among the most important are US nonfarm payrolls. The news was good on Friday, as February NFP outperformed with a strong showing. The economy created 678 thousand jobs in February, crushing the consensus of 400 thousand and above the January reading of 481 thousand. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8%, down from 4.0%. With workers in short supply, pressure on wages will continue, and the Fed is likely to respond with a cycle of rate hikes, starting in March. Inflation continues to accelerate, and there had been talk of the Fed taking a drastic measure and imposing a half-point rate hike. However, the war in Ukraine and the stunning rise in oil prices has led to central banks showing an abundance of caution in this turbulent economic landscape. The CME's FedWatch is projecting a 94% likelihood of a 25-basis point rise at the March meeting. This will mark the liftoff of a rate-tightening cycle, as the Fed moves toward normalization. The US releases CPI on Thursday, which is projected to hit 8%. A release within expectations will raise pressure on the Fed to align their timeline more closely with market expectations of six rate hikes this year. The Fed was slow to react to high inflation, and faces a real challenge in raising rates enough to bring inflation down to manageable levels without choking off the recovery. 0.6803 is a weak support line and could be tested during the day. Below, there is support at 0.6733 There is resistance at 0.6931 and 0.7000
by OANDA
Japanese yen rises on Ukraine fearsThe Japanese yen has moved higher on Thursday, as tensions are once again rising over the Ukraine crisis. Invasions fears have ratcheted upwards after NATO warned that Russia could use a border skirmish as a pretext for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The US has rejected Moscow's claim that it is reducing its military presence on the border and Russia expelled a senior US diplomat from Moscow earlier in the day. There were hopes that the crisis was easing, but the latest moves indicate that it is far from over. With the rising tensions, risk sentiment has fallen and the safe-haven Japanese yen has posted strong gains against the US dollar and the euro. After a stellar retail sales report on Wednesday, today's US data has been softer than expected, which has also weighed on USD/JPY. Unemployment claims rose to 248 thousand, a three-week high, while housing starts and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index slowed in January and fell short of their estimates. There are no US economic releases on Friday, but we will hear from three FOMC members, which may provide some insight on the Fed's plans after the March rate lift-off. The FOMC minutes was a sleeper for the markets, as the release ended up more of a reminder that big things are coming from the Fed, which we all know. Officials discussed the need to raise rates, strongly hinting that lift-off will take place in March. As well, the Fed plans a significant reduction in the balance sheet, which has ballooned to nine trillion dollars as a result of aggressive bond-buying in an effort to stimulate growth during the Covid pandemic. The Fed will end its QE programme in March as scheduled, although some members at the Fed meeting wanted to wind up the program earlier. 114.79 is under strong pressure in support. Below, there is support at 114.15 There is resistance at 116.21 and 116.99 A major Fibo level is close by at 114.90 (50% of the 113.47-16.34 climb)
by OANDA
go long Desktop Metal $DMTechnical Thesis: -double bottom -20 day MA on the verge of a steep cross up through the 50 day MA -average volume is trending upwards -it broke out with significant volume Fundamental Thesis: -YoY Profit margins are trending upward -from 2018 to 2020 their debt to assets has fallen significantly -on the Macro side, with the ability of large-scale production and companies now needing to diversify their suppliers, Desktop Metal should benefit from growing their amount of clients, increasing cash flow allowing for more R&D, paying off debt, and improving margins. -possibility of being acquired, possibly by an automaker to improve the speed that they can produce. (like Tesla trying to acquire Velo3D) -currently the 2nd largest holding in Cathie Wood's PRNT ETF at the time of this post. in-flows will help the stock -they are figuring out a way to 3D print synthetic wood, which would make them an ESG play since it would reduce the need to cut down trees. Becoming an ESG play will only result in more in-flows. -Oppenheimer and Credit Suisse initiated coverage. The street is starting to take notice. Price Targets: Credit Suisse: $14 Oppenheimer: no target Sources: www.forbes.com www.dailyadvent.com www.streetinsider.com
NYSE:DMLong
by EBITDAtiger
$NVDA: Scoop There It Is ⤴️Recent political environments regarding Taiwan Semiconductors have highlighted the world's economy's need to wain from the dominance of TSM in the semiconductor manufacturing process, I think a great deal of money is going to come into NVDA both private and government as the US seeks to retain harmony with political rivals. This could greatly benefit Nivida's market cap, the stock has also shown how effectively it can move in massive cycle's so timing a perfect entry could be difficult through this range, but try scaling in and keeping your cost basis as low as you can.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by Fox_Technicals
Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) for SHORT Signals Position: short Entry price: 286 Target: 272 SL: 275 Indicators RSI is reversing from a position of overbought: good time for a short DMI - is reversing indicating a bearish trend Both Keltner channel and Bollinger bands indicate a strong trend Pattern The price is bouncing between the support and the resistance lines and the bearish trend has been confirmed Conclusions SWH develops, manufactures, distributes and sells paint, coatings and related products to professional, industrial, commercial and retail customers. Mostly based in the US. The number of of new residential sales has been decreasing since May 2020 in the US. The fundamentals of the company, the Q2 earnings released today and the candles themselves cannot carry to break the resistance.
NYSE:SHWShort
by vf_investment
CAD drifting, Manufacturing Sales nextOn Thursday, the Canadian dollar has posted small gains. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2147, up 0.11% on the day. The Canadian dollar has been on a tear lately. USD/CAD has fallen 1.32% in May and the Canadian dollar hasn't suffered a losing week since March. Canada's economic recovery has been bumpy and lockdown restrictions remain in place, but the Canadian dollar has jumped on the bandwagon and posted impressive gains against a wobbly US dollar, which has struggled in the second quarter. Canada releases Manufacturing Sales on Friday (12:30 GMT). The February reading hit a 6-month low, at -1.6%. However, we expect a strong rebound for March, with a consensus of 3.5%. If the release is within expectations, we could see the Canadian dollar respond with gains. We've been hearing about inflationary pressures in the US for months, and the April inflation report confirmed these concerns. CPI was much higher than anticipated. Headline CPI jumped 4.2% year-on-year, up from 2.6% and above the estimate of 3.6%. The surge in inflation has increased speculation that the Fed may consider reducing its asset-purchase programme of USD120 billion sooner rather than later. Such a tightening of policy would be bullish for the US dollar. Investors are clearly concerned that higher inflation is not temporary, but how will the Fed respond? On Tuesday, prior to the CPI release, Fed Governor Lael Brainard said that inflation risks are a "transitory surge" and urged the Fed to remain patient and continue its ultra-dovish monetary policy. Brainard pointed to the weak nonfarm payrolls report last week as an indication that the US recovery still has a ways to go, saying that, "today, by any measure, employment remains far from our goals.” There are voices calling for a re-examination of the Fed's current policy, as Fed member Robert Kaplan stated recently. For the time being, however, the Fed remains committed to its ultra-accommodative policy. If upcoming inflation reports show that higher inflation appears to be sustainable, the Fed may have to backtrack and take a hard look at tapering QE.
by OANDA
Impact of cold winter retreat, US durable goods new orders rebouThe year-on-year increase of US durable goods reached 25.02% (previously 3.2%), with an absolute value of $256.3 billion (previously $254 billion). Year-on-year increase of nondefense new orders for capital goods reached 11.59%, to $75.9 billion in March. MM Analysis As the impact of cold winter retreat, nondefense new orders for capital goods reached $75.9 billion in March. The gap between the annual growth rate of new orders and the uncompleted orders continued to expand, indicating a large amount of backlog orders, it is still in the stage of restocking. It is expected that in Q3, under a new round of 1.9 trillion fiscal spending, there would be a strong support (February savings rate: 13.6%). Driving companies to continue to invest in restocking inventory and continue the manufacturing restocking cycle as the March manufacturing PMI and retail sales data also set new highs at the same time.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MacroMicro_Global
Tenaris We are the leading manufacturer of pipes and related services for the world's energy industry and certain other industrial applications. Our manufacturing system integrates steelmaking, pipe rolling and forming, heat treatment, threading and finishing across 16 countries. We also have an R&D network focused on enhancing our product portfolio and improving our production processes. Our team, based in more than 30 countries worldwide, is united by a passion for excellence in everything we do. 4th quarter results have been released. Although financials are improving, I believe that price running too hot right now and is in need of a retracement soon. I have price testing up to $13/$14 dollars in a best case scenario. Looking for a possible put option for the short term. Need to witness price action on smaller time frame. Let me know what you think! Like, Follow, Agree, Disagree! *not investing advice
NYSE:TSShort
by Redimere_91
2
Allison at first buy levelAllison has been getting hit along with other manufacturers due to rising producer prices and steel shortages, but I continue to believe the company's prospects are impressive, with an overall quite positive outlook for earnings. And this sharp drop makes the valuation attractive too. I estimate Allison's forward P/E at less than 10, forward P/S at less than 1.5, PEG at about 2, and forward dividend yield at a respectable 2%. The stock has about 23% upside to its median multiple of the last 4 years. Sentiment on Allison is mostly positive. The average analyst rating is 6.5/10, up about half a point this week. There's about 20% upside to the average price target of $44. The put/call ratio is quite positive at under 0.5. In technical terms, Allison is hovering right above an important trend line support. If you set a stop loss at the trend line and target $40 per share, you've got about 8% reward - risk. I personally think Allison is good for a longer swing to at least $47, but it's also possible that this trend line support won't hold. I've identified four additional buy levels based on historical highs and lows. With everything so overvalued, I haven't seen many buying opportunities lately. So it's kind of exciting to finally see the market correcting a bit and offering up a few good deals for once. Admittedly, I run a screener for stocks that have suffered a correction and might be "on sale," and most of the stuff turning up there is still overvalued garbage, so the larger market correction may still have a ways to go.
NYSE:ALSNLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
5
Auto industry likely to inflect downward from hereManufacturing has been a red-hot sector lately, and the CARZ auto ETF has been a beneficiary of that boom. The latest manufacturing data out today show continued outperformance by this sector, which I suppose is why CARZ is up today: Empire State index: 17 Price of imported industrial supplies: +3.6% Manufacturing output: +1% When you drill into the data, however, it doesn't look as good for automakers. While overall manufacturing output is up 1%, output for auto manufacturers was down 3.7% in August. Another relevant data point from the August CPI report is that the price of used cars rose 5.4% in August. So it looks like the growing number of permanently unemployed workers, now deprived of stimulus checks and unemployment benefits, are starting to tighten their belts and reduce large expenditures. August credit card spend deteriorated in August, -13% YoY vs -12.3% the previous month. Consumer lending has tightened up as well, with banks opting to buy bonds rather than make loans.
NASDAQ:CARZShort
by ChristopherCarrollSmith