US Steel could pop on USMCA newsNews of the pending approval of the USMCA trade deal has been somewhat eclipsed by news of the signing of the Phase 1 China trade deal. However, the reality is that the USMCA deal has larger implications than the China deal, since we do a lot more trade with Canda and Mexico than with China. One sector affected by the deal is the U.S. steel industry, because the deal closes loopholes that foreign steelmakers have used to bypass steel tariffs when selling to U.S. manufacturers. That could give steelmaker stocks like X and AKS a nice bump when the media breaks the news of the deal passing in the Senate.
However, any bump in steel stocks may be short-term, because the loophole closure is scheduled to take 7 years to go into effect. So I suggest treating this as a quick scalp play, at least until the U.S. manufacturing sector starts to recover.
Manufacturing
CGNX Take-ProfitSell signal at 50.06 $
Timeframe - 1 week.
Cognex Corporation ( Cognex ) is a provider of machine vision products that capture and analyze visual information in order to automate tasks, primarily in manufacturing processes, where vision is required.
ATTENTION this strategy may has downtrend about 20%, so you can split your buy order, that you have not big downtrend.
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Earnings decides this markets fate.An earning over prediction has sent this market into a 'good standing' position for the neutral area. Assuming that earnings will not beat prediction, due to tariffs, I expect a major downtrend continuing. If we do not stay in neutral territory, expect a straight downward selloff.
PMI Likely Near 39 by Q2 2020Manufacturing numbers continue to be horrendous at best, and with recent escalating tariffs between US-China which will only seemingly get worse through time, manufacturing should inevitably decline even further through Q4 2019 and Q1 2020.
From number extrapolation based on key data I am targeting a PMI of around 39 late Q2 2020 or possibly Q3 2020. In the near term, we can expect around 45 PMI before Q1 2020. Since the tariffs begin in September however, I suspect August and September will likely only go down 0.5 month to month from July's value of 51.2.
As we move closer to the general election in the United States, I suspect there will end up being a trade deal otherwise Trumps chance of winning will be hindered significantly; as such I do not expect numbers to become as stale as 2008-2009 in the manufacturing sector, but likely be 4-5 points higher from the 35 value we saw back then (i.e. predicting 39 bottom).
Highlights (Predictions)
- Current (July): 51.2
- Fall 2019 (Sept/Oct/Nov): 49-44
- Winter & Spring 2019/2020 (Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar/April/May): 43-39
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I will be monitoring this situation very carefully and will update this post as newer information and data becomes available.
Please check back on a monthly basis as manufacturing numbers come out for the most up-to-date data and analysis!
- zSplit
MBUU upside breakout possibleMalibu Boats just got some big analyst upgrades on the strength of upward earnings revisions. It's been in a gentle upward channel, but I actually think it could break out and establish a steeper upward channel leading up to earnings in September. Watch for the upside channel breakout and then buy the pullback.
As always, this does not constitute investment advice, just an idea as to how the market will move. Full disclosure: I know the founder of this company.
Picanol, almost time to go long?This is a quality company but got sold off because of the cyclical nature of the business and the problems with the trade war.
50-40 range wouldn't be bad to pick this stock up.
BTCUSD | Manufacturing PMI Drops and is Short of ForecastsManufacturing sentiment data for April has fallen lower to 52.8 which is toward contraction territory (below 50), failing to meet industry forecasts of around 54.7. Currently forecasts for May are hovering around 53.6, but this would only be a bounce within the overall downtrend and actual data may be lower.
What does this mean? BTC prices are likely to sink lower as BTC manufacturers (miners) continue to express negative sentiment which may translate into negative prices. Also see this idea:
(2X-3X) $NCS Already showing signs for reversal? This could setup to be a big 2x or 3x move coming. $NCS is a metal building company and owns lots of components and products used by other companies. They had a big merger and are re-branding to Cornerstone. This will be huge for the company, and with steel prices looking to rebound a reversal is setting up nicely. Also, weekly bullish divergence is occurring (see previous chart).
Don't get in a Pickle!
Bitcoin & Manufacturing PMI | Market Trend and CyclesThe Bitcoin "mining" industry which sustains the infrastructure for the Bitcoin network can be compared to manufacturing. If we compare the price of Bitcoin to the Manufacturing PMI (which measures the sentiment among managers in the US) we can see a significant degree of correlation. While the potential causal mechanisms still require rigorous study, we can add this data to gauging trend reversals and cycles in Bitcoin along side other data sets like $BTC Dominance, $NVT , and other on-chain information.
Buy at 3.95 dipTA only, long term trade - look at this company for +/- related to accommodating Electric/ Autonomous/ AI trucking needs
Are ASPEN's Woes Nearly Over?Aspen is a global supplier and manufacturer of branded and generic pharmaceutical products as well as infant nutritionals and consumer healthcare products in selected territories.
ASPEN has been under the microscope over the past few years with various negative rumors and investigations driving the share price lower and lower. I believe that we haven't quite seen the bottom yet but that there is a possibility of strength to come soon. Perhaps a take over is what they need?
Technicals
The corrective structure has seen a break of the 61.8% Fib retracement level and is currently trading below it. I am expecting to see wave 3 end at the 78.6% level. In my opinion, it is likely that there will be a rally from that point onwards and that the structure will break to the upside. A larger retracement than that would indicate serious repercussions for ASPEN and I am certain that they will do everything in their power to avert a further decline in share price.
3M (MMM) Bear Flagging into EarningsIn this January bullish market, bear flag breakdowns have mostly led to flat lines rather than massive drops, but given 3M's China business, and a week already full of dismal earnings reports, it can be expected that this bear flag will play out as a minor decline in the short-term stock price. There is fresh demand in the low to mid 180's, and even if it falls below our target of 187 (very possible), it will likely bounce back into a mid-range demand zone.
I'd short it with or without earnings tomorrow.
Long @ 6.50 target $12.25NICE setup for counter market movement, if 2019 is a flat/ topping year
IPO price is $25 range, consider that the long term target
Buy on pullback at 2.65 Making money is art and working is art and good business is the best art.
Andy Warhol
Ford Chart: Different Trade IdeasThis chart shows a number of possible directions that price could take and is meant to spawn multiple trade ideas. I firmly believe in diversifying positions and trade ideas within the holdings of one individual asset, but I posted up an example with targets for a long trade that will help to manage risk by utilizing major resistance, as well as Fib levels, the Gann Fan (always a 45 degree angle), the Stochastic, and the Awesome Oscillator. I also tossed in an Elliott Impulse wave on the big spike so that you can see how you might trade a big breakout and know which phase you're in during the trade. Regardless, your satisfaction with this trade idea will depend on your fundamental views of auto-manufacturing. If you think American auto manufacturers are going to get crushed, don't buy it. I do not believe that that trend will continue on a long term basis. Happy Hunting Everyone.