Get started

Manufacturing

Keep care! Chinese manufacturing PMIThe Chinese manufacturing PMI will influence the market direction. If the PMI will be lower then the last time then we will have a breakout above the upper side of the triangle. The volume should increase around 28.11.2016. If the breakout to the upper side of the triangle fail we will retest the 4600-5800 yuan support zone which is also at the 50% Fibonacci retracement. RSI perfomed a bullish bounce, which indicades a bullish breakout by time.
B
by Gebbo
2
Crude Technical OutlookCrude started the new year with volatility, as prices initially rebounded into price resistance near $38/bbl on geopolitical tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia. However, the rally was short-lived and there looks to be no follow through in today's session. There are a few key factors to take into account: slow global growth, a decline in global demand growth and a supported dollar. As posted here and here , near-term resistance is near $38/bbl which has been tested and failed twice in the last two days. Technical breadth still remains negative, and the lower have of the demand zone is the next area of support between $33-34/bbl. If the bottom of the range breaks, $27 is open for the taking. As mentioned in August : "On a market technician's viewpoint, if fundamentals do not shape up quick with support from consumption economies, like the U.S. and China, crude could break 2009's low of $33.20 per barrel. I also expect the dollar to continue to rise, increasing deflationary pressure throughout 2016. Price support is currently $42.02, just $2.22 per barrel less from where it is trading today. 2008's high of $147.27 per barrel creates a "V" shaped support and resistance price channel, which will likely hold prices. If prices break through this key support level, selling could amplify if there is no catalyst to bring prices back north. A "demand" zone - an area where confirmed buying took place - between $38.34 and $34.04 will be the last line of defense for crude prices. A close below this level, and a target of $27.14 per barrel is initiated." Take it back further to last February : "A bottom in crude will be formed when a series of indicators and data show confluence." "Growth has been lacking, and it is concerning that China – the largest consumer of oil – is showing real signs of trouble. GDP recently hit two decade lows, and the most recent import/export data is troubling. China saw a 3.3 percent decline in exports and a whopping 19.9 percent decline in imports YoY, the worst since 2009. It was was 16 percent lower than the general consensus. There is also disinflation. Whether it is in the US, Eurozone, or China, prices for commodities will remain low. Crude is no exception. A bottom in crude will not likely begin until fundamentals mingle with price action. Inventory builds of 5, 6, 10 million barrels per week will not help the case for higher prices, and oil companies could be forced to further slash rigs, jobs and CAPEX. And considering the deteriorating economic data, more so in the US, 2008’s low could be retested." If bulls could retake momentum, upside potential could reside at $42.75 and, potentially, $48.55. The situation remains dynamic as an unexpected production cut from a large producer could spark huge short-covering (unlikely to change long-term sentiment). Although, OPEC and Russia look to remain active, while production in the US is still near historical highs . Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
NYMEX:CL1!
by CommoditiesTrader
21
AUDUSD Near-Term OutlookThe Australian dollar is coming off a sizable gain against the greenback, following an employment jump of 58,600. This pushed the unemployment rate down to 5.9 percent from 6.2 percent in September. Analysts are expecting this to hinder further rate cuts near-term, while economist Stephen Koukoulas believes the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may indeed raise rates. Before we jump off the deep-end, I noted following the higher than expected employment data that Australian employment from month-to-month is volatile and should be taken with a grain of salt. I have witnessed a gain of 70,000 one month followed by a loss of 20,000 the next. Furthermore, wage growth is rapidly contracting. Traders watch central banks fumbling with whether to continue on a path to ease or not. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) increased their key benchmark by 100 bps on a series of strong, albeit short-lived, data only to reverse course in less than a year’s time. AUDUSD is trading within a descending channel on the 4H chart leading into the RBA policy minutes on Monday. If the RBA can hold off on further easing, the pair could set up for a potential near-term trend break. Near-term resistance is located at .7163 and .7217, while if the RBA hints at further easing, AUDUSD could continue its path lower .7070. The week is chalk full of U.S. data, which could aid the Aussie dollar in either direction. If U.S. data is weak enough and triggers greenback selling, the pair could achieve near-term resistance targets. Moving average activity is looking like it is setting up for a 20/50-EMA bullish convergence, but until then they are merely minor support levels. Intraday momentum, as measured by the ADX, is rather weak at 14. The +/- DMI is suggesting bullish price action is still there, but the RBA could quickly jawbone a change. Please follow me on Twitter @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
by CommoditiesTrader
India Could Be the Most Resilient of the BRICSThe BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) are highly watched emerging markets because they represented roughly 22 percent of global GDP in 2014. However, the global economic slowdown and increased geopolitical tension has weighed heavy on these markets. Although, India may be the most resilient economy out of the BRICS. India has felt its share of the slower economic climate, as the Markit manufacturing PMI fell to a seven-month low in September, falling to 51.2 from 52.3. According to Markit, there are signs of sustainable growth but input costs decreased for two months consecutively, which has not happen since the financial crisis. Both manufacturing and industrial output have remained stable. Services PMI has seen improvement since late 2014. In relation, the Chinese manufacturing PMI clocked in at 47.2 and has been contracting since March while near the worst levels since March 2009. Due to the slack in the economy and less than expected inflation, the Reserve Bank of India cut the benchmark rate by 50 bps to 6.75 percent. This strengthened the rupee has investors look for it to hinder capital outflow. It also comes as the People's Bank of China (PBoC) devalues the yuan. USDINR is likely to fall further as I expect the dollar to remain weak following the onslaught of poor economic data. Friday's non-farm payroll print of 146,000 was well below the 201,000 general consensus. To add insult to injury, August's jobs number was revised lower by 50,000 which left mouthpiece economists in bewilderment. The Fed's inability to act, in regards to an interest rate boost, will leave the dollar on shaky ground. Fed fund futures traders are not pricing in a potential for Fed action until June/July of 2016 - although, I am forecasting a recession by then. The USDINR is trending within a descending channel with support at 65.28, but the pair will travel to the 50 percent Fib. retracement at 65.15 (with the 72-daily EMA as further support). Secondary target is 64.83. Resistance can be found at 65.6060, 65.8337 and 66.1374 Please follow me on Twitter @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
by CommoditiesTrader
DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTIL ON RISKIn line with Total Capacity Utilization index, Manufacturing Capacity Utilization index which measures the share of manufacturing capacities of US companies employed in actual production, has also nearly restored its crisis losses. However, the index has bounced down from the 78% mark in the recent readings, falling out of its ascending range. It is too early to conclude if it is the end of recovery in the index. The risk will be only confirmed if the data continues downward along its new descending trend line (marked orange on the chart)
FShort
by Killy_Mel
Is Lumber Signalling Bad News for US Manufacturing?Lumber is highly correlated to the ISM manufacturing index (or vice versa?). Nevertheless, the weakness in lumber prices is corresponding with the softening manufacturing data, although manufacturing data from Markit suggest manufacturing is weaker than ISM reports. New orders index collapsed from Nov/Dec 66 to 57. Prices have noticeably declined, too. Anyways, price action is nestled so snugly on price action support at $310.XX, while support was found on the uptrend channel support. This also aligned with a small asymmetrical triangle. A close below these levels, prices are likely to sell-off to $278, while $268 remains a possibility on weakening economic data. However, a rally from these levels could push prices to $326.
LShort
by CommoditiesTrader