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Manufacturingpmi

Euro extends losses as eurozone CPI slows to 1.8%The euro continues to lose ground and is trading at 1.1080 in the North American session, down 0.49% on the day. The euro is down for a third consecutive day and has declined 0.9% during that time. Eurozone inflation eased to 1.8% y/y in September, down from 2.2% in August and below the market estimate of 1.9%. This was the lowest rate since April 2021 and below the European Central Bank’s inflation target of 2%. The drop in inflation was largely driven by the sharp decrease in energy prices. Monthly, inflation declined by 0.1%, down from the 0.1% gain in August. Services inflation, which has been a headache for the ECB, dropped from 4.1% to 4.0%. The core rate, which is a better indicator of long-term inflation trends, fell to 2.7%, down from 2.8% in August and below the market estimate of 2.8%. Inflation declined across the bloc, with Germany, France, Italy and Spain all recording inflation rates below 2%. The ECB has approached the new rate-cutting cycle with caution, as high services inflation and wage growth are reminders that the battle against inflation isn’t over. The markets expect the ECB to remain on the sidelines at the October meeting and re-evaluate a possible rate cut in December. The Federal Reserve is expected to be aggressive in its rate-cutting cycle, which started last month with a large cut of 50 basis points. On Monday, Fed Chair Powell poured cold water on expectations for another jumbo rate cut, saying that the economy was in “solid shape” and that the Fed was not in any rush to cut rates quickly. Powell’s remarks have lowered market odds of a 50-bps cut to 40%, compared to 58% one week ago, according to CME’s FedWatch. EUR/USD pushed below support at 1.1096 and tested support at 1.1058 earlier. The next support level is 1.1001 1.1153 and 1.1191 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
China Caixin PMI SummaryChina Caixin PMI Summary Surveys completed by 650 SME's in China have indicated that China's smaller manufacturing and service providers remain in expansionary mode in April 2024 with all three data releases coming in as expected or higher than expected with readings >50 = Expansionary. Manufacturing - 51.4 Increased from 51.1 in Mar 2024 to 51.4 in Apr 2024 ✅Above expectations of 51 Services - 52.5 Decreased from 52.7 in Mar 2024 to 52.5 in Apr 2024 ✅In line with expectations of 52.5 Composite - 52.8 Increased from 52.7 in Mar 2024 to 52.8 in Apr 2024 ✅Above expectations of 52.5
ECONOMICS:CNCOMPPMI
by PukaCharts
ISM Indices vs. GDP YoY% - Leading Economic IndicatorsBoth ISM Manufacturing Index and Non-Manufacturing Index vs. GDP YoY% for the US economy. ISM Manufacturing: Yellow ISM Non-Manufacturing: Blue GDP YoY%: Green/Red ISM Manufacturing currently signaling contraction with a level below 50 and the momentum seems lower. Non-Manufacturing Index is likely to follow the same path although currently signaling growth, but less than before. GDP YoY% could potentially experience a slow-down within the next 6 Months to a Year. The FED has being somewhat more Dovish on the latest speech, as they're seeing a negative outcome in keeping Interest Rates higher for much longer.
ECONOMICS:USBCOI
by Kels
Macro Monday 34 ~ S&P PMI Composite FlashMacro Monday 34 S&P PMI Composite Flash This S&P PMI “Flash” Composite is a very useful and relatively new data set made available since Nov 2013 that is particularly useful at providing an advance indication of the ISM Purchasing Managers Index (ISM PMI Index) which is released a week later. We are aware from prior Macro Mondays that the ISM PMI index is based on data collected through surveys of over 800 companies in the U.S. and covers variables such as sales, new orders, employment, inventories and prices, all of which give us an indication of trends in the economy. S&P Flash Composite Main Benefits 1. The term "Flash" in the name refers to the fact that it is a preliminary or early quick estimate of the ISM Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) which is released later in the month. For example this month the S&P Flash Composite is released this week on Thursday 22nd Feb whilst the final ISM PMI reading is released Friday 1st March (both readings are for the month of Feb). 2. The S&P PMI Composite Flash is a “composite” insofar as it combines both the manufacturing and services sectors PMI’s into a single index. This provides a more comprehensive overview of economic activity compared to looking at either sector in isolation (however you can also view the flash PMI for Services and Manufacturing separately, these are released on the same day). So the S&P PMI Composite Flash consists of two main components: 1. Manufacturing PMI: Measures economic activity in manufacturing. 2. Services PMI: Measures economic activity in the services sector. Both components are based on surveys of purchasing managers and provide insights into factors like new orders, production, and employment. The Composite PMI combines these components to offer an overall picture of economic health, with readings above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 indicating contraction. How do we get an advance “FLASH” PMI reading and how reliable is it? The main difference between the data used in the S&P PMI Composite Flash and the final PMI figures lies in the sample size(smaller) and timing (earlier release with most recent data exclusion). According to Investopedia and a report from S&P Global Flash (Jan 2023), the Flash Composite PMI release is based on about 85% of total PMI survey responses each month. Clearly, a significant portion of survey responses are included in the Flash PMI which would lead you to believe that its reliable early indicator but how reliable has it been historically? In the aforementioned S&P Global Report it also provided the historical average difference between the flash and final PMI index values (final minus flash) since comparisons were first available, which are; Composite Difference = 0.1 Manufacturing Difference = 0.0 Services Difference = 0.2 We can see that the Manufacturing Flash PMI release readings are the most reliable and that the Services Flash PMI is less reliable. Whilst both are not far off the mark, it’s a notable difference for services considering that services represents over 80% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), thus small differences in services hold more weight. Regardless, we can be relatively satisfied that the S&P PMI Composite Flash Index is a very good and reliable early indicator of the Final ISM PMI. I will certainly be looking at this metric going forward so that I can have a great early indication of the ISM PMI. When you review the chart of the Flash PMI with the Final PMI, you'll see that the difference appears greater than the marginal difference discussed above. This highlights, how on a chart, the difference a week or a weeks worth of data can make to how a chart appears (with the absent or included 15% of data). You will also notice that the Flash PMI is more volatile with higher and lower swings. It reminds me a little of the CPI headline vs CPI core chart in this respect, as both ultimately move in the same direction but one oscillates less than the other. I hope the next Flash PMI released this Thursday 22nd Feb will help arm you with what is very reliable early indication of the ISM PMI (released a week later on the 1st March). Thanks for coming along PUKA
ECONOMICS:USCOMPPMI
by PukaCharts
NZ dollar dips after hot US Producer Price IndexThe New Zealand dollar has lost ground on Thursday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6136, down 0.33%. On Friday, New Zealand releases the Manufacturing PMI. It was a busy day in the US, and this writer expected that retail sales would be the highlight of the day. In the end, it was the Producer Price Index which stole the show and gave the US dollar a boost after a stronger-than-expected performance. PPI for February surprised with a gain of 0.6% m/m, up sharply from 0.3% in January and the market estimate of 0.3%. This was the highest rate since August 2023 and the primary drivers of the upswing were increases in the price of goods and energy. On an annualized basis, PPI jumped 1.6%, up from a revised 0.9% in January The Federal Reserve is unlikely to get worked up from the headline reading, as core PPI eased to 0.3% m/m, down from 0.5% in January but higher than the market estimate of 0.2%. On an annualized basis, core CPI remained steady at 2%, just above the market estimate of 1.9%. Retail sales rebounded in February with a gain of 0.6% m/m, following a revised 1.1% decline in January but shy of the market estimate of 0.8%. Retail sales rose 1.5% y/y, after a zero reading in January. New Zealand will wrap up the week with Manufacturing PMI. The manufacturing sector has struggled and has been mired in negative territory for eleven straight months. Still, there was some improvement in January, as the PMI rose from 43.1 to 47.3, its highest level since June 2023. The upswing is expected to continue in February, with a forecast of 48.1. NZD/USD is testing support at 0.6154. Below, there is support at 0.6092 There is resistance at 0.6240 and 0.6302
by OANDA
Macro Monday 35~Richmond Fed Manufacturing and Services IndexMacro Monday 35 Richmond Fed Manufacturing and Services Index (Released Tuesday 27th Feb 2024 @ 15:00 GMT or 9:00 CT) The Richmond Manufacturing and Services Indexes measures the conditions of each respective industry for the 5th Federal Reserve District which covers the District of Columbia (Washington DC), Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and most of West Virginia. Both the indexes are derived from surveys conducted each month of relevant businesses in each respective industry. ▫️ The Richmond Manufacturing Index survey focuses on questions related to production, new orders, employment, prices, capacity utilization, and future expectations within the manufacturing sector. ▫️ The Richmond Services Index survey, on the other hand, asks questions about business activity, new business, employment, prices, inventory, capital expenditures, and future expectations within the service sector. While the specific questions and data points might differ between the surveys, the basic structure and methodology for calculating the diffusion indices remain consistent; The Chart You can see that the green zone is expansionary and the red zone is contractionary. At present Manufacturing (blue line) is in fairly deep contraction at -15 and whilst Services (red line) has recovered from -22 (Apr 2023) to +4 (Jan 2024). Reading the Chart: 🟢Above 0 is expansionary (green zone) 🔴Below 0 is contractionary (red zone) Historic Recession Patterns I have highlighted some patterns on the chart (orange) which demonstrate that historically when Services and Manufacturing declined for a period of between 27 and 45 months a recession can follow such declines. Importantly there was a period of decline in from Apr 2010 – Dec 2013(45 months) which did not result in a recession. During this period Services remained elevated and only fell marginally into contractionary territory for brief spells (which could be a tell of some buoyancy in the market during this period). At present we are 32 months into a general decline in both manufacturing and services. Services have been on the incline since Apr 2023 and recently moved into expansionary territory at +4 in Jan 2024 which is promising and may indicate the beginning of a trend change, however until manufacturing follows this trajectory I believe we are still at risk of repeating history. Manufacturing is down at -15 at present and needs to start as sustainable recovery into expansionary territory. It has remained more a less in contractionary territory since Apr 2022. Why even consider the Richmond Fed index? I think the best way to outline the utility of the Richmond Fed is to compare it to the Dallas Fed Index which will be released later today (Monday). I have covered the Dallas Fed on a previous Macro Monday (link will be in the comments) and I will update you on this index when it is released later today also. Both the Richmond Manufacturing Index and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index are valuable indicators of regional manufacturing activity, each offering unique insights. Dallas Fed Index focuses on a major economic manufacturing hub – Texas (An estimated 14.4 million people are employed in the state of Texas) The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index covers manufacturing activity mainly in the state of Texas. The state of Texas ranks 2nd only to California in factory production & comes in at 1st as an exporter of manufactured goods, thus Texas is an important state for gauging manufacturing & production in the U.S. economy (not services is not included here). Texas also contributes an incredible c.10% towards the U.S. Manufacturing gross domestic product making the index an important metric to consider towards potential GDP trends in the U.S. So, the Dallas Fed is very good at gauging manufacturing in the U.S. simply because of the volume of manufactured goods from the region. Whilst the Dallas Fed Index focuses on a high volume of manufacturing activity and production within the state of Texas, it also specifically focuses on durable goods industries like aerospace, energy, and technology whilst the Richmond Index below is much more diversified in terms of its manufacturing industries, its services sector and regionally diverse. Richmond Index focuses on more economically diverse regions (inclusive of a large services sector) (An estimated 23 - 25 million people are employed in the fifth federal reserve district) This Richmond Index covers the Fifth Federal Reserve District, encompassing an incredibly diverse range of industries across six states. Its difficult to portray the expansive array of various manufacturing and services within these regions but I will try. This index goes far beyond the specific performance of durable goods in an isolated state like Texas and reflects manufacturing and services health across various sectors and regions. It offers economists a broader picture of manufacturing health in the U.S. compared to indices focused on specific industries or regions. To give you an idea of the diverse ranges here: In Washington DC you have a major corporate & services hub; think Accenture, Deloitte, KPMG, Capital One) combined with tech and comms center with the likes of Amazon web services, Verizon Communications & General Dynamics. You obviously have a strong political and legal presence in this region also. Maryland, Virginia and North Carolina appear to have a very strong healthcare dynamic with the likes of Bon Secours Mercy Health System, VCU Health System, Duke University Health System and Atrium Health. Baltimore in Maryland has the Johns Hopkins Hospital and Health System employing over 40,000 employees. All these states appear to have strong university presences also (offering education employment and services) which likely supply the necessary expertise for the medical manufacturing and services that are present across these states. South Carolina is known for having one of the major three Boeing aircraft manufacturing facilities and is also known the manufacturing of Michelin tires. Across all six states you have a rich and diverse farming and forestry industry, food production facilities and waste productions plants. Walmart, Home Depot, Target and Amazon are also present across all these states. You can clearly see why the Richmond Fed offers a more nuanced and complex picture of the U.S. manufacturing and services economy. This diversity in sectors, regions and employment demographic gives us a different insight against the more centralized manufacturing hub contained in Texas under Dallas Fed Index. Furthermore, in terms of employment the six states included in the Richmond Fed Index is approx. 24 million versus the approx. 14.4 million employed in the state of Texas (under the Dallas fed Index). Both indexes are very valuable and should both be equally considered in our assessments of the U.S. economy. Thanks for coming along and learning about the chart history on the Richmond Fed Index, the historic trends and the combined utility of both the Dallas and Richmond Fed Index . PUKA
ECONOMICS:USRFMILong
by PukaCharts
9
The Business Cycle is turning up ISM Services PMI Rep: 53.4% ✅ HIGHER THAN EXPECTED ✅ Exp: 51.7% Prev: 50.5% (revised down marginally from 50.6%) The reading for ISM Services PMI came in much higher than expected with services remaining in expansionary territory for Jan 2024 (>50 Level) Whilst ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.1 on the 1st Feb (<50 level) and in contractionary territory, it has made a higher low much like Services PMI. Manufacturing has increased from 46 in July 2023 to 49.1 currently. Services continues to outperform Manufacturing. Both Services and manufacturing appear to be making a series of high lows on the chart which may suggest that this business cycle is starting to turn and curl to the upside. PUKA
ECONOMICS:USNMPMI
by PukaCharts
Macro Monday 31 ~ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Key Levels)Macro Monday 31 U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index This Index is compiled from a monthly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas to assess the health of manufacturing activity in the state of Texas. It provides insight into factors such as production, employment, orders, and prices, offering a snapshot of economic conditions in the region. Why is the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index Important? ▫️ As stated above the index covers manufacturing activity in the state of Texas, the state of Texas ranks 2nd only to California in factory production & comes in at 1st as an exporter of manufactured goods, thus Texas is an important state for gauging manufacturing & production in the U.S. economy. ▫️ Texas also contributes an incredible c.10% towards the U.S. Manufacturing gross domestic product making the index an important metric to consider towards potential GDP trends in the U.S. ▫️ The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (DFMI) is one of several regional manufacturing surveys that feed into the national Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). The PMI is released later this week on Thursday 1st Feb thus the DFMI on Monday will give us an early indication of the potential direction of the PMI later in the week. FYI, I will be covering the PMI for you on Thursday so stay tuned for that. How to read the index? A reading above 0 indicates an expansion of the factory activity compared to the previous month; below 0 represents a contraction; while 0 indicates no change. The Chart The chart only dates back to 2005 so we have a limited dataset however we can still see definitive levels of importance and trends over this shorter historic backdrop. A few findings from the chart: The + 36.8 Level Since December 2005 any time we have hit the +36.8 level on the chart it has typically represented a peak in manufacturing and production signaling that a decline would likely follow. This has occurred 3 times and each time within 20 – 23 months of this +36.8 peak we had a recession or a financial crisis. 1) December 2005 21 Months later we had the Great Financial Crisis. 2) June 2018 20 months later we had the COVID-19 Crash. 3) April 2021 23 months later the U.S Banking Crisis occurred in March 2023 resulting in 3 small to mid size banks failing. - The remaining banks being saved by the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) which appears to have successfully contained the contagion for now. The BTFP is ceasing in March 2024 👀 ▫️ We can see above that in the event we reach the +36.8 level in the future, history informs us that within 20 – 23 months major economic issues will likely present. If we had known this back in April 2022. After April 2022 the S&P500 fell 15% to its recent lows. ▫️ The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) could declare the current period we are in as a soft recession. For the last six recessions, on average, the announcement of when a recession started was declared 8 months after the fact meaning we will would only get confirmation of a recession once we are 6 - 8 months into it. Its worth noting that some recessions were confirmed by the NBER after the recession was over. - 36.8 Level A reading below the -36.8 level has historically confirmed a recession. We have not hit this level since the COVID-19 Crash with May 2020 being the last time we have been at this level. Periods in Contractionary Territory There have been 2 previous periods where we have remained in contractionary territory for greater than 6 months. These are worth reviewing as we have been in contractionary territory for the 20 months now (April 2022 - Present). 1) Sept 2007 – Nov 2009: We fell into contractionary territory during the Great Financial Crisis for 26 months. From 2009 to 2016 the index seemed week oscillating around the 0 level and not really breaking out into persistent expansionary territory until 2017 forward. 2) Jan 2015 – Oct 2016: We fell into contractionary territory for 21 months however there was no recession. 3) Apr 2022 – Present: We are currently on month 20 of contraction. Now this could be just like point 2 above whereby we recover to expansionary territory in month 21 or 22 (Jan - Feb 2024) however if we do not, we are moving towards a timeline similar to point 1 which was the 26 month Great Financial Crisis. Q1 of 2024 will be very revealing in terms of what we can expect next. In the event we end up in contraction for 26 months or if we hit the -36.8 level we can presume, based on history, that we likely have a recession on our hands. And, if we recover into expansionary territory maybe we have got away with it this time 🙂 You can clearly see that the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is significant for assessing the U.S. economy because it provides timely insights into the health of one of the nation's key economic sectors: manufacturing & production. Since Texas is a major hub for manufacturing activity, trends observed in the Dallas Fed index can offer valuable indications of broader economic trends. It is one of several regional indices that contributes to a comprehensive understanding of the manufacturing landscape, aiding policymakers, investors such as ourselves, and businesses in making informed decisions about the state of the economy. The current economic environment just gets more and more interesting every week Thanks for coming along again folks 🫡 PUKA
ECONOMICS:USDFMI
by PukaCharts
Macro Monday 22 - ISM Services Vs PMI US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (ISM Services) Next Release: 5th December 2023 (released on third business day of each month) The U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Index (“ISM Services”) encompasses a wide range of services across various industries. The index is designed to measure the economic activity and health of the services sector in the United States some of which are professional services (accounting, legal, etc.), healthcare (hospitals, clinics & other practitioners), accommodation, leisure and food services. Similar to the ISM Manufacturing Index (aka as the Purchasers Managers Index) which surveys producers and manufacturers which we covered in Macro Monday 13, the ISM Services index is also based on surveys conducted on participants in the relevant services sectors noted above. Also similar to the ISM Manufacturing index, the ISM Services is reported as a diffusion index, where values above 50 indicate expansion or growth in the sector, while values below 50 suggest contraction. This makes both the ISM Manufacturing Index and ISM Services Index easy to compile onto a chart for comparison purposes. The ISM Services Vs ISM Manufacturing Chart The chart demonstrates the following: ▫️ At present ISM Services has been more resilient and is in expansionary territory at 51.8 (above 50) whilst ISM Manufacturing is in contractionary territory below the 50 level at 46.7. ▫️ Both the ISM Services Index and the ISM Manufacturing Index have been in a downward trajectory since 2021. - You can clearly see that since March 2021 the Manufacturing Index has declined from 64.5 down to 46.7 today (Red Line). - Thereafter from November 2021 the ISM Services Index declined from 67.5 down to 51.8 today (Blue Line). ▫️ As you can see on the chart a steep manufacturing decline can often provide advance an warning of a subsequent services decline (grey areas on chart). It’s important to acknowledge that the Manufacturing Index can lead the ISM Services Index. It is important because we discovered in Macro Monday 13 that the Manufacturing Index (AKA Purchaser Managers Index) reading below 42 can provide an advance/confirmation warning of recession, thus more weight could be assigned to the Manufacturing Index than Services Index in predicting a recession (as it appears to lead services direction). For this reason we will review the ISM Manufacturing Index (PMI) indications below. The ISM Manufacturing Chart The main findings of the ISM Manufacturing Index (AKA Purchaser Managers Index) From a Recession Perspective ▫️ 11 of the 12 recessions on the chart coincided with a PMI of less than 42. ▫️ 1 recession occurred that did not breach below the 42 level (No. 9 on the chart) From a PMI Perspective ▫️ 12 of the 13 times that the PMI moved below the 42 level, this coincided with a recession. ▫️ 1 time we have had a sub 42 PMI reading without a recession (Between 11 & 12 on the chart). At present we are at a level of 46.7 so we do not currently have a trigger event for a recession but we know exactly what to look for. Based on both historical perspectives, there is an c.92% probability of a recession should a sub 42 PMI level be established, or vice versa, in the event of a recession confirmation there is a c. 92% probability it would coincide with the sub 42 PMI level. Timing ISM Manufacturing Bottoms o 10 out of 12 PMI Bottoms occurred in Q1 and the remaining two bottoms were in Q2. 83% of the time the PMI bottoms occur in Q1 which is good to know and watch for with Q1 2024 approaching swiftly. o The average PMI Bottom to bottom timeframe over the past 6 cycles is 58 months (Min 37 – Max 86). We are presently at month 44 and month 58 is Jan 2025 (Q1) The ISM New Orders Index (30% of the PMI) Similar to the ISM New Orders Index Chart (covered in Macro Monday 6) which makes up 30% of the Purchaser Managers Index or Manufacturers Index (PMI), we have not reached below the 42 level on this chart either which has provided a 100% confirmation of recession when we have had a definitive move below the 42 level historically. At present we are at 45.5 on this chart and we seem to have a downward trajectory at present unless something changes upon the next data release. In summary, we now know now that the Manufacturers Index (PMI) often leads the Services Index, and we need to pay close attention to the 42 level on both the New orders Index (Makes up 30% of PMI) and the Manufacturing Index (PMI) as a breach below this level on these charts increases the probability of a recession upwards of 92%. We are also now aware that there is a high incidence of the PMI bottoming in Q1 (83% of the time) and occasionally in Q2. These are quarters we can be on high alert for a sub 42 level. The ISM Services PMI is released on the third business day of each month at 10:00 a.m. (EST) or 15:00 GMT. The next release will be on the Tuesday the 5th December 2023. Most of the ISM data releases commence within the first 5 working days of the month. As always folks, I will watch the numbers and keep you informed. All of the above charts are updated on TradingView as data is released. PUKA
ECONOMICS:USNMPMI
by PukaCharts
NZD/USD edges higher ahead of manufacturing PMIThe New Zealand dollar is in positive territory on Wednesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5926, up 0.26%. New Zealand's manufacturing sector has been in decline for seven consecutive months and little change is expected from the October PMI, which will be released on Friday. The market consensus stands at 45.0, compared to 45.3 in September, which marked a 2-year low. Business activity in the manufacturing sector has been dampened by weak global demand and elevated borrowing costs have exacerbated the prolonged slump. China has been struggling with a significant slowdown, which is bad news for the New Zealand economy, as China is New Zealand's number one trading partner. China is grappling with deflationary pressures, and the October inflation report was softer than expected due to a sharp decline in the price of pork. Inflation in China fell by 0.2% y/y in October, down from 0.0% in September and lower than the market consensus of -0.1%. Monthly, CPI declined by 0.2%, versus a 0.2% rise in September and below the market consensus of 0.0%. If deflation continues, it could cause a downturn in inflation expectations that could dampen consumer spending. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell didn't discuss monetary policy in public remarks on Wednesday, and the markets will again be listening carefully as Powell speaks later today. Earlier this week, two Fed members sounded hawkish about inflation. On Wednesday, Philadelphia Fed President Harker said he expected rates to stay higher for longer and there were no signs of rate cuts in the near term. This followed Dallas Fed President Logan, who said that inflation remains too high and looks to be trending towards 3% rather than the Fed's 2% inflation target. Logan warned that the Fed would have to maintain tight financial conditions in order to bring inflation back to target. NZD/USD continues to test support at 0.5929. The next support line is 0.5858 There is resistance at 0.5996 and 0.6069
by OANDA
EUR/USD extends losses, Fed meeting loomsThe euro is in negative territory on Wednesday after posting a losing session a day earlier. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0532, down 0.40%. The Federal Reserve makes its interest rate announcement later today and the markets have fully priced in rate pause, which would keep the benchmark rate at 5.25%-5.50%. Although the decision is practically a given, investors will be looking for signals as to what the Fed plans to do next. Fed Chair Powell has been hawkish about inflation and I wouldn't be surprised if he reiterated the same message at today's meeting. On the employment front, JOLTS Job Openings rose to 9.55 million in September, up from a revised 9.49 million in August and above the market consensus of 9.25 million. This was the highest level in four months, another sign that the labour market remains strong. The US releases nonfarm payrolls on Friday, with the banner gain of 336,000 last month still fresh in investors' minds. The market consensus for September stands at 180,000. Germany's economy has sputtered, and the once proud locomotive of European growth is looking more like the sick man of Europe. The manufacturing sector has been exceptionally weak and has posted three successive readings below the 40 level. A reading below 50 points to contraction, while above 50 signals expansion. Germany will release the Manufacturing PMI on Thursday. The market consensus for October stands at 40.7, which would be a slight improvement from the September gain of 39.6. There is resistance at 1.0595 and 1.0664 1.0495 and 1.0426 are providing support
by OANDA
NZD/USD rises on strong Services PMIThe New Zealand dollar has started the week with strong gains. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5919, up 0.55%. It was a miserable week for the News Zealand dollar, which fell 1.74%, its worst weekly performance since August. The driver for today's gains was the New Zealand Services PMI, which rose to 50.7 in September, up from 47. 7 in August. This reading is barely in expansion territory, but it indicates a welcome rebound after three straight declines - the 50 level separates contraction from expansion. As is the case with most major economies, the services sector is in better shape than manufacturing. Last week's Manufacturing PMI weakened to 45.3 in September, down from 46.1 a month earlier. This marked a seventh straight decline and was the lowest reading since August 2021. Inflation is still on everyone's mind and continues to have a strong impact on the currency markets. This was reiterated last week with last Thursday's US inflation report, which remained unchanged at 3.7% and was just above the market estimate of 3.6%. The release unnerved investors and sent risk appetite and risk currencies tumbling. The New Zealand dollar was steamrolled, sliding 1.54% on Thursday. New Zealand will release third-quarter inflation on Tuesday. The market estimate stands at 2.0% q/q, which would be a sharp rise from the 1.1% gain in the second quarter. The sharp rise in gasoline prices is expected to boost inflation. Core CPI, which excludes energy prices, will be closely watched by the central bank and policy makers will be looking for a decline on Tuesday. If that doesn't happen, expectations of a rate hike in November will likely rise. NZD/USD put pressure on resistance at 0.5942 earlier. The next resistance line is 0.5999 There is support at 0.5888 and 0.5827
by fisherkj4
New Zealand dollar rises despite soft Services PMIThe New Zealand dollar has started the week in positive territory. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5918 in the North American session, up 0.34%. New Zealand's Services PMI eased to 47.1 in August, down from 47.8 in July. The reading marked a third straight decline in activity and was the lowest level since January 2022. This comes on the heels of Friday's Manufacturing PMI, which fell to 46.1 in August, down from 46.6 a month earlier. This was the sixth consecutive month of contraction (the 50.0 line separates contraction from expansion). The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has been forecasting a recession and the weak PMIs support this view. New Zealand's economy has cooled down due to the central bank's steep tightening and global demand has weakened, most notably with China experiencing a slowdown and deflation. The RBNZ paused at the August meeting and interest rates may have peaked. If economic data remains weak, I would expect the RBNZ to prolong the pause at next month's meeting. The US ended last week with mixed releases. The Empire State Manufacturing Index surprised and jumped to 1.9 in September, up from -19 in August and above the market consensus of -10. The UoM consumer sentiment index slowed to 67.7 in September, down from 69.5 in August and shy of the market consensus of 69.1 points. Inflation Expectations fell to 3.1% in August, down from 3.5% in July and the lowest level since March 2021. This is another sign that inflation is weakening and supports a pause at the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. The markets have priced in a pause at 99%, according to the CME FedWatch tool, up from 92% one week ago. NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.5908. The next resistance line is 0.5936 There is support at 0.5871 and 0.5843
by OANDA
Australian dollar takes a tumble as RBA pausesThe Australian dollar continues to swing wildly this week. In Tuesday's European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6630, down 1.30%. On Monday, AUD/USD jumped 1% higher. There were no surprises from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which paused for a second straight month and maintained the cast rate at 4.10%. The money markets had priced in a pause but the Australian dollar still took a nosedive after the decision, as the money markets have lowered the probability of a rate hike in September to below 20%. Recent key data showed that the Australian economy has cooled off, with inflation easing in the second quarter and retail sales for June falling by 0.8%. These numbers provided support for the RBA to take a pause at today's meeting. Still, the argument can be made that with inflation at 6%, double the upper band of the RBA's target range, there is room for further rate hikes. The RBA did not change its inflation outlook, predicting that inflation would not return to the 2%-3% target range before late 2025. Services inflation, which includes rising rent prices, remains sticky and this is a key concern for the central bank. Governor Lowe's rate statement said that future rate decisions "will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks." This is a reminder that inflation and employment reports will play a key role in determining the RBA's rate path. There is speculation that the RBA is done with tightening, but with inflation still at high levels, Lowe's message to the markets was that further hikes remain on the table. In the US, today's key event is ISM Manufacturing PMI. The manufacturing sector remains in the doldrums and has been in decline since October, with readings below the 50.0 level. In June, the Manufacturing PMI slipped to 46.0, the lowest level since May 2020. Another decline is expected for July, with a consensus estimate of 46.8 points. AUD/USD has pushed below support at 0.6697. Below, there is resistance at 0.6573 There is resistance at 0.6771 and 0.6875
by OANDA
NZD/USD dips ahead of RBNZ rate decisionThe New Zealand dollar is lower on Tuesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6189, down 0.35%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be in the spotlight on Wednesday. The central bank holds its policy meeting and is expected to leave the official cash rate unchanged at 5.5%. The RBNZ has raised rates 12 consecutive times since August 2021 but has signalled that it's time for a breather. Shortly after the May hike, Deputy Governor Hawkesby said that there would be a "high bar" for the RBNZ to continue raising rates.  The RBNZ won't be issuing a rate statement and there may not be much for the markets to digest other than the expected pause. The decision to pause is certainly not a no-brainer, given current economic conditions. Inflation is running at 6.7%, more than triple the Bank's target of 2% and the labour market remains tight. At the same time, demand has slowed and economic activity has cooled as the RBNZ's relentless rate hikes filter through the New Zealand economy. RBNZ policymakers are confident that the economy has cooled and inflation, although high, is on the right path. If inflation continues to fall, there is a good chance that the pause could be extended - the central bank would clearly like to wrap up the current rate-tightening cycle, and unlike what we saw when the Fed took a pause, there are no signals to the markets that this pause will be a one-time occurrence. New Zealand releases Manufacturing PMI for June on Wednesday after the rate decision. The manufacturing sector has contracted for three straight months, with readings below the 50.0 line, which separates contraction from expansion. The PMI is expected to rise from 48.9 to 49.8, which would point to almost no change. NZD/USD tested support at 0.6184 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6126 0.6260 and 0.6383 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
GBP/USD pushes above 1.20The British pound has bounced back on Wednesday and recorded sharp gains. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2055, up 0.74%. Ask any British consumer, and they'll tell you that food prices have been going through the roof. The BRC provided data in that regard, stating that food inflation hit a record 13.3% in December, up from 12.4% in November. The BRC put the blame on the Ukraine war, which has resulted in higher prices for energy and raw materials. With the war dragging on and no end in sight, we're unlikely to see a drop in food prices anytime soon. High inflation and more expensive mortgage payments have squeezed British households, which have been hit by the worst cost-of-living crisis the UK has experienced in years. The OBR projected in November that real household disposable income would fall by 4.3% in 2022-2023. The rise in inflation has been accompanied by weak growth, and the UK is likely already in a recession. Goldman Sachs has forecasted the GDP will contract by 1.2% in 2023, the worst among the G-10 major economies. This is only marginally better than the forecast for Russia, with GDP expected to decline by 1.3%. The Bank of England has been focussed on inflation and raised rates by 50 basis points to 3.5% in December. Inflation eased to 10.7% in December, down from 11.1% in November, which marked a 41-year high. The BoE would prefer not to tighten in such a weak economic environment but has argued that it would be worse to allow inflation to remain at high levels. All signs indicate that the BoE will continue to raise rates in early 2023, starting at the February 2nd meeting. In the US, investors will have two key events to digest later today. ISM Manufacturing PMI fell into contraction territory in November for the first time since May 2020, with a reading of 49.0 points. Another weak reading is expected for December, with a forecast of 48.5 points. The 50.0 threshold separates contraction from expansion. The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its December meeting. At the meeting, Fed Chair Powell sent a hawkish message that interest rates could continue to rise and poured cold water on a dovish pivot. Investors will be looking for clues as to interest rate policy in 2023 and its outlook for the US economy. GBP/USD has support at 1.1949 and 1.1846 There is resistance at 1.2095 and 1.2198
by OANDA
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EUR/USD dips lower, German PMI improvesWelcome to the first trading day of the New Year. Trading remains thin, as most markets are closed.  In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0679, down 0.23%. I expect a quiet day for the euro. There are no US events on the schedule. German Manufacturing PMI improved to 47.1 in December, up from 46.2 in November and shy of the consensus of 47.4 points. Manufacturing remains below the 50.0 level that separates contraction from expansion, and expectations remain pessimistic. The silver lining to a gloomy situation is that the outlook has improved slightly, as the December release was the strongest in three months. It was a similar pattern in the eurozone, as the Manufacturing PMI rose to 47.8, up from 47.1 in November, also a three-month high. Manufacturing in Germany and the eurozone has suffered a tough year, and demand remains weak. The global outlook remains uncertain and with the ECB promising further rate hikes, the risk-to-demand outlook is tilted to the downside. Still, December showed an improvement, as concerns over an energy crisis have lessened and inflation has eased. We'll get a look at key inflation releases this week. German publishes December CPI on Tuesday, followed by eurozone CPI on Friday. Both indicators are pointing to inflation heading lower, which could have an impact on ECB rate policy. The ECB raised rates by 50-bp in December and meets next on February 2nd. If anyone needed a sober forecast for 2023, there was one today from the International Monetary Fund. The head of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, warned that 2023 would be tougher than last year, as the US, EU and China would see growth slow. Georgieva said that she expected one-third of the global economy to be in recession. In October, the IMF cut its growth outlook from 2.9% to 2.7%, due to the war in Ukraine as well as central banks around the world raising interest rates. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0674. Below, there is support at 1.0566 There is resistance at 1.0782 and 1.0852
by OANDA
GBP/USD slides after Fitch's downgradeGBP/USD is down sharply today. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.1150 down a massive 1.58%. The pound continues to exhibit sharp volatility, with swings of over 1% every day this week. The fallout surrounding Chancellor Kwarteng's ill-fated mini-budget just won't go away. After immense pressure, Kwarteng abolished the tax breaks for the top 1% earners in a humiliating U-turn that has badly damaged the credibility of the new government. The fiasco sent the pound to a record low and forced the Bank of England to step in after the bond market was close to crashing. On Wednesday, the Fitch ratings agency lowered its outlook for UK debt from "stable" to "negative", following a similar move by Standard & Poor's after the mini-budget. Fitch did maintain the UK's credit rating of AA-, but the lower outlook will not help Prime Minister Truss' beleaguered government. The pound was pummelled in September, losing 3.9%. The outlook for the pound does not look good, with soaring inflation and the new government's serious missteps after only a few weeks in office. Manufacturing PMI remained below 50, which indicates contraction. Today's Construction PMI rose to 52.3, up from 49.2, but much of the improvement was due to an easing in supply shortages, and new orders fell to their lowest level since May 2020. In the US, the spotlight will be on Friday's nonfarm payroll report. The reading is an important bellwether of the health of the US economy and can provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future rate policy. On Wednesday, the ADP employment report showed a slight improvement at 208,000, up from 185,000 (200,000 est.) The ADP release is not a reliable forecaster of the official NFP release, but ADP is now using a new methodology, which hopefully will improve its reliability. Non-farm payrolls are expected to decline to 250,000 in September, down from 315,000 in August. A reading that is well off the estimate could trigger volatility from the US dollar - a strong reading will raise expectations that the Fed will stay very aggressive, while a soft release could mean the Fed has to pivot earlier than it expected. GBP/USD is testing support at 1.1206. The next support line is at 1.1085 There is resistance at 1.1350 and 1.1486
by OANDA
This Week in the Markets (October 3-7)October 3 (Monday) German Manufacturing PMI UK Manufacturing PMI October 4 (Tuesday) US ISM Manufacturing PMI RBA Interest Rate Decision October 5 (Wednesday) US JOLTs Job Openings UK Composite PMI US ADP Employment Change October 6 (Thursday) US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Australia Trade Balance UK Construction PMI Eurozone Retail Sales Canada Ivey PMI October 7 (Friday) US Nonfarm Payrolls Canada Unemployment Rate What You Need to Know This Week: 🔸 The RBA Interest Rate Decision is expected to remain at 2.35% 🔸 Estimates have the Nonfarm Payrolls to add 250,000 jobs into the market. 🔸 No major earnings report this week. More information on Mitrade website.
FRED:CE16OV
by Mitrade_official
July PMI For 4 Major Economies (26 July 2021)Last Friday, IHS Markit released the preliminary PMI data for four major economies. Below are the key points from the individual reports. United States Services sector slowed down to a 5-month low pace due to labour shortages. Manufacturing sector expanded at record high pace. Prices of goods and services remained steep as firms pass on the high costs to consumers. Total employment growth eased to 4-month low. Business confidence declined to 7-month low mainly due to rising inflation, labour and material shortages, as well as rising concerns over the pandemic. Europe Services sector expanded at the fastest pace in 15 years due to reopening of economy from the lifting of COVID restrictions. Manufacturing sector expanded at a slightly reduced pace due to supply constraints, which led to an increase in backlogs of work. Employment continues to rise sharply. Prices for goods and services rose as demand surpassed supply. Business confidence declined to 5-month low as concerns over the COVID Delta variant grow. United Kingdom Business activities in the UK slowed down considerably due to shortages of workers and raw materials. Backlogs declined due to a slowdown in business activities. Business and consumer confidence fell due to the pandemic and Brexit-related difficulties with export sales. Employment growth eased to the slowest level since March. Australia Services sector slipped into contraction for the first time in 11 months. Renewed COVID restrictions caused by the spread of Delta variant affected demand and output in Australia. Decline in demand in the services sector led to a decline in work outstanding. Manufacturers continue to report shortages of supply, leading to an increase in work outstanding. Employment in both the services and manufacturing sectors continue to grow.
TVC:DXY
by GH_Lee
Pound rebounds as retail sales sparklesThe British pound has reversed directions on Friday and posted gains. In the European session, GDP/USD is trading at 1.3881, up 0.32% on the day. The pound has shown considerable movement this week. The currency started the week in fine fashion, climbing 1.11%. This marked its best one-day performance since January. After pushing above the symbolic 1.40 line, the pound proceeded to retreat and fell back into 1.38 territory. On Friday, GBP/USD has gained ground, buoyed by strong economic data out of the UK. Retail sales were outstanding in March, with a gain of 5.4% (MoM). This reflects the easing of Covid-19 restrictions on consumer spending. At the same time, retail sales for the first quarter of the year were down by 5.8% compared to Q4 of 2020 - again, this is reflective of the lockdown that was in place for much of Q1, which curbed consumer spending. As the government continues to reopen the economy, with another easing phase scheduled for mid-May, we can expect pent-up demand to translate into robust consumer spending in the coming months. Aside from Retail Sales, there was also positive news from the manufacturing and services sectors, which showed strong growth in March. Manufacturing PMI for March improved to 60.7, up from 58.9. It was a similar story for services, as the PMI rose from 56.3 to 60.1. Both PMIs beat the forecast of 59.0 points. These releases show significant growth across the UK economy, but the British consumer remains quite pessimistic about economic conditions. GfK Consumer Confidence came in at -15 in April, almost unchanged from the previous reading of -15. Taking the "glass half-full" approach, this reading was the strongest since the Covid-19 pandemic began, as the index has been moving higher as the government reopens the economy. GBP/USD is putting strong pressure on resistance at 1.3898, followed by resistance at 1.3956. There is support at 1.3726, followed by a support level at 1.3612
by OANDA
GBP fall below 1.38, Fed minutes loomThe British pound has fallen for a second straight day. Currently, GDP/USD is trading at 1.3717, down 0.28% on the day. The pair is down about 1 percent since Monday and has dropped into 1.37-territory. The pound is under pressure, and even a strong Services PMI was not enough to prevent losses on Wednesday. Service providers reported growth in March, with the PMI rising from 49.5 to 56.3. A reading over the 50-level indicates growth. The PMI reading was the highest in seven months, although it did miss the estimate of 56.8, which may have soured some investors. With the government gradually relaxing health restrictions, pent-up demand is now translating into economic activity and stronger business optimism.  Last week, Manufacturing PMI rose to 58.9, its highest level since 2011. Construction PMI will be released on Thursday (8:30 GMT), and expectations are for an acceleration to 55.0, up from 53.3 points. If the economy is improving, what's wrong with the pound? One possible explanation focuses on the EU announcement of an improved vaccination outlook. This led to stronger demand for the EUR/GBP cross and sent the pound lower. According to this scenario, the pound's current downswing should be temporary in nature. Recent employment numbers are pointing to a rapidly improving labour market. Nonfarm payrolls blew the estimate of 652 thousand out of the water, with gain of 915 thousand. This was followed on Tuesday by JOLTS job openings, which improved from 6.92 million to 7.37 million, well above the forecast of 6.91 million. This points to the labor market creating jobs at a much faster pace than expected. The Fed has repeatedly said that it would not raise rates until the labor market recovered, telling the markets not to expect any hikes prior to 2024. With that recovery looking like it could be ahead of schedule, will the Fed change its timeline for rate hikes? Investors will be looking for such clues in the FOMC minutes later today (18:00 GMT).  GBP/USD is testing support at 1.3742. Below, there is support at 1.3650. On the upside, 1.3889 is the next resistance line, followed by resistance at 1.3944.
by OANDA
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