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NASDAQ: Dancing on the Edge of a Techno-Financial TightropeMarket Overview The NASDAQ-100 (NDX) has recently corrected by approximately 5.5% from its all-time high of 22,133 on December 16, 2024. This comes after a historic rally driven by resilient megacap technology stocks, robust earnings, and the continued dominance of AI-led innovation. Despite the correction, the index remains up 18% year-to-date, outpacing broader indices like the S&P 500, fueled by optimism around productivity-enhancing technologies. However, macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds could temper this growth into 2025. Technical Analysis Trendlines Short-Term: The NDX remains in a rising trend channel since March 2023, with the lower boundary around 20,500 acting as critical support. A recent breach of its 21-day moving average suggests growing bearish momentum. Long-Term: The index's long-term trendline, extending from the pandemic lows in 2020, remains intact, underscoring investor confidence in the broader tech narrative. Key Levels Support Immediate support: 20,790 (50-day moving average). Strong support: 20,500 (trendline and Fibonacci retracement zone). Resistance Near-term resistance: 21,900 (upper boundary of rising wedge). Critical resistance: 22,133 (all-time high). Momentum Indicators RSI: Declining from overbought territory (currently at 64), signaling potential for further downside before resetting to neutral. MACD: A bearish crossover suggests weakening momentum in the near term. Macroeconomic Context Interest Rates The Federal Reserve has maintained its hawkish stance, with the terminal rate hovering around 5.75%. While inflation has moderated to 2.4%, core inflation remains sticky at 2.8%, keeping rate cuts off the table until mid-2025. Elevated borrowing costs could weigh on tech valuations, particularly for growth companies reliant on cheap capital. Economic Growth U.S. GDP growth is forecasted to decelerate from 2.6% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025, reflecting weaker consumer spending and tighter financial conditions. This slowdown could dampen earnings growth across the NASDAQ-100 constituents. Corporate Earnings Analysts expect NDX earnings growth of 8% in 2025, down from the blistering 14% in 2024, as cost pressures and a plateauing of AI-related tailwinds take hold. Geopolitical Landscape China-U.S. Relations Increasing tensions over Taiwan and heightened scrutiny of U.S. tech exports to China remain a wildcard. Any escalation could disrupt semiconductor supply chains and impact heavyweights like Nvidia and AMD. Europe Persistent instability in Eastern Europe and ongoing energy challenges pose risks to multinational tech firms with significant operations or customers in the region. Middle East Geopolitical uncertainty stemming from conflicts in the Middle East has kept oil prices elevated (~$95/barrel). Higher energy costs could indirectly affect tech earnings by squeezing consumer and corporate budgets. 2025 Outlook Base Case The NASDAQ-100 ends 2025 up 8–12%, driven by resilient demand for cloud computing, generative AI, and green technology innovations. Support from stable core earnings growth and moderating inflation provides a favorable backdrop. Bear Case Prolonged high interest rates, coupled with weaker-than-expected global growth, lead to a flat or mildly negative year. Key risks include geopolitical flare-ups, regulatory actions on Big Tech, and waning investor enthusiasm for speculative assets. Bull Case A dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve in H2 2025, alongside breakthrough advancements in AI or biotechnology, propels the index to new highs (~24,000). Conclusion The NASDAQ-100 is entering 2025 with a cautiously optimistic outlook, balanced between robust technological trends and mounting macro/geopolitical risks. Investors should monitor key support at 20,500 and resistance at 21,900 as barometers of sentiment. While near-term volatility is likely, the index remains a cornerstone for long-term growth portfolios. For 2025, the focus is on being smart: diligent monitoring, disciplined allocations, and adapting to shifting conditions. "There are three ways to make a living in this business: be first, be smarter, or cheat." – John Tuld – Margin Call (2011)
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by WHSelfInvest
The btcusd weekly on the CMEWeekly session just closed which erases the last four weeks of declines and uncertainties, the candle is larger and also seems to express decision. I think it is normal to see movements of this type after quite significant bearish pressure, it is not a clear signal that the correction is over, but we can see it as a beginning or at least an important rebound. The minimum at 56.5k USD therefore becomes the level where the margins of those who have gone long in recent weeks are placed. If I analyze the futures, it is necessary to think in these terms. On derivatives there is a technique of the large managers called "stop hunting loss or margin call", means that once the level in which the liquidations are concentrated has been identified, the price will go there and then resume the previous run or direction, after all, here we are dealing with brokers who trade against you , so for every user who gains, they lose. The CME is different but not so much, it is taking shares of open interest, as can be seen below, taking advantage of the moment in which others flee from the exchanges, maybe things are correlated or maybe not. It remains strange that once the institutions entered, the battles to regulate this and that began. Those who have known Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies for a while know well that they were created to improve old methods, but here we are witnessing a fusion between old and new, so the price movements we are seeing have become much more technical, yes says that the market has achieved more efficiency than in the past, perhaps, what has not changed and will never change is the method for taking money from all participants.
CME:BTC1!
by Melupira89
Q&A MARGIN CALL - Everything you need to know Today's Q&A I want to answer the most common questions I get about Margin Calls. Let's begin. Q. What is the Margin Call? A margin call is a situation where a trader does not have enough funds in their account to keep a trading position open. Your broker will either phone you or you'll receive an automated message with a margin call warning. Q. What can you do when you hit a Margin Call? If you are ever in this situation, you will be instructed to do two things. Deposit more funds into your portfolio to keep your trading positions opened. Close your current open position/s that are running at a loss, before your trading platform closes them out for you. Tip: When setting up a trading account with a broker find out what their minimum margin requirements are. Q&A: Can you show an example with a Margin Call? Let’s look at an example with a Margin Call Here are the specifics: Equity portfolio: R10,000 Initial margin deposit: R5,500 You buy a CFD trade which says you need to have at least 30% of the margin (initial deposit) in your account, to keep the trade opened. This means, you need R1,650 (30%) in your account to keep your trade opened. The next day comes and the market crashes below your stop loss. Your new account balance is now R1,500… Unfortunately, you’ll hit a Margin Call as your portfolio only has 27% of the initial margin of your trade. = Equity ÷ initial margin deposit = R1,500 / R5,500 = 27% 27% is less than 30% of what you need to maintain an open trade. The broker now has the right to close the trade and to send you a notification about what happened. You will receive a margin call to instruct you to deposit more money into your account or to close your trading positions. Q&A: What if I can't pay back the money when I hit a Margin Call? Essentially, you will be owing the broker as they will not be carrying the risk. If you cannot pay it or refuse to clear the negative balance, you will not be allowed to trade with the broker and/or trading platform again until you pay what you owe. Depending on the size of the debt, if you refuse to pay it then some brokers may have the legal right to pursue the outstanding debt through legal means. This means they could file a lawsuit. They could even take the matter to court, where a judgement may be issued where the trader will be required to repay the debt. What Q&A would you like to see next? If you enjoyed it or found this useful let me know so I can do more for TradingView... Trade well...
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
Avoiding and Managing Margin Calls Trading on margin offers a variety of potential benefits, as well as some additional risks, including margin calls. This lesson explains margin calls, your obligations, and what you can do to help avoid them. A margin call is a demand from your brokerage firm to increase the amount of equity in your account. You can do this by depositing cash or marginable securities to your account or by liquidating existing positions to generate cash. To avoid margin calls, you need to understand fully what triggers a margin call, along with the steps you can take to minimize the risk of a margin sellout. Margin calls can be a stressful experience with serious financial implications. Your brokerage firm may sell securities you own—without notifying you and without regard to tax consequences—in order to increase the equity in your account. Therefore, consider these suggestions to minimize the odds of experiencing a margin call: Prepare for volatility: Leave a considerable cash cushion in your account that protects you from a sudden drop in the value of your loan collateral. Set a personal trigger point: Keep additional liquid resources at the ready in case you need to add money or securities to your margin account. Monitor your account daily: Consider setting up alerts to notify you when the value of your positions declines significantly. If you fail to understand the concept of margin or not knowing what to do when faced with a margin call from your broker, you will definitely experience the shock of your trading account blow up. What do you want to learn in the next post?
TVC:GOLDEducation
by UnitedSignals
5
Don't Blow Your Account | Learn How to Avoid Margin Call Hey traders, In this educational article, I will share with you 5 simple tips that will help you not to blow your trading. 1️⃣Always Use Stop Loss. Let's start with the obvious - with the stop loss order. Never ever trade without that. Before you open your trade, plan in advance its placement, stick to it once the position becomes active and never remove it. 2️⃣ Manage Your Position Sizes I know that most of you are trading with a fixed lot. That is a bad habit. You should measure the lot size for each trading position you take. You should define in advance the risk percentage you are willing to lose per trade and calculate the lot sizes for your trades accordingly, then. 3️⃣Avoid Taking Too Many Positions Remember that in trading, quantity does not imply quality. The more trades you take, the harder it is to manage each position individually. I would suggest opening maximum 5 trades per day and holding no more than 8 trades simultaneously. 4️⃣ Avoid Trading Too Many Markets The wider is your watch list, the harder it is to focus on each individual element inside. Do not try to control as many markets as possible, instead, narrow your watch list and concentrate your attention on your favourite trading instruments. 5️⃣Remember About Volatility The more volatile is the market that you trade, the harder it is to trade it and the bigger stop losses you need to keep your positions safe. Remember, that the volatility is the double-edged sword. It can bring substantial profits, but it can also blow your entire account in a blink of an eye. Following these 5 simple rules, you will make your trading much safer. Study them and add them in your trading plan. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
11
QA WHAT is a Margin Call? QA: What is a Margin Call? You don't want this. It's an automatic instruction to close out your trade/s when you have insufficient funds in your portfolio. This is a safety mechanism for both you and your broker. It's also where either your trading platform, your broker or an automatic message via email will tell you to either deposit more funds into your account, close your trades or will warn you that your positions will be automatically closed. *DO YOU HAVE ANY TRADING QUESTION? Comment below or LIKE this post if you found it helpful. I've been trading for the last 20 years and it's my hobby to help provide analyses and help traders get on the right foot. I'm happy to have a platform like TradingView to do it :) Trade well, live free. Timon MATI Trader
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
Margin callWhen there are not enough available funds in your account to meet margin requirements, the broker issues you a warning, which is called a Margin Call. Your broker automatically sends a margin call when your free margin reaches $0 and your margin level reaches 100%. From now on, it will be impossible to open new positions. Thanks to leverage, traders get leverage that allows them to open positions that are several times larger than the size of their trading account. This helps to earn much more, but losses are also growing. It is at such moments, when you hold too large a position and the market goes against you, that you can get a margin call. This will trigger the automatic closing of all stop-out positions if the market continues to move against you. An example of a margin call. You open a forex trading deposit of $4000 and use a leverage of 1:100. As we know, the lot size on forex is equal to 100,000 units of the base currency ($ 100,000). When using the leverage of 1:100, you must deposit $ 1000 of your money as collateral for each open transaction in the amount of one lot. After analyzing the EUR/USD currency pair, you decide that the price will rise. You open a long position for two standard lots at EUR/USD. This means that you are using $2,000 of your funds as collateral. At the same time, the free margin will also be $ 2000. The cost of one item when trading one lot of software will be equal to $ 10. This means that if the price drops by 200 points, the free margin will reach $ 0, the equity level will be equal to the margin used, and you get a margin call. How can margin calls be avoided? To avoid margin calls, you need to follow the rules of risk management. Before opening positions, you need to know where your stop loss will be and how much it will equal as a percentage of capital. The distance from your entry point to your stop loss should determine the size of your position and, accordingly, your risk level. Do not do the opposite: the size of your position should not determine the size of the stop loss. You may have heard that it is not worth risking more than 5% of the capital in one transaction. Trading according to this rule is, of course, better than trading without rules, but an experienced trader will still say that it is too dangerous to risk 5%. Using the 5% rule, you can lose 20% of your capital in just 4 trades, which is too much. The more money you lose, the more difficult it will be for you to return to the previous level of your trading capital. Serious drawdowns are also psychologically difficult for most novice traders. You may even start trading out of a desire to recoup and start opening even bigger positions to try to recoup your losses. But this will no longer be a trade, but a gambling game. Never risk more than 2% of your trading account in any transaction. If you are just starting to trade forex, 1% risk will be even more appropriate. After you become confident in yourself and your trading strategy, you can slightly increase the size of your position. In any case, 5% is too much for most trading strategies. Even the best traders can make 4 or 5 losing trades in a row. If you want to trade using large lots, you must have the appropriate amount of capital. This is the only safe way to trade for large amounts. The number of positions you open at the same time determines your risk at any given time. If you risk only 2% of your trading account in one trade, do not think that you can open 10 positions at once — this is a sure way to get a margin call. Even if you only open two positions, but you are trading correlated currencies, you are still risking 2% in one trade. An example of this could be a risk of 1% on a long EURUSD position and a simultaneous risk of 1% on a long GBPUSD position. If there is a sharp jump in the market due to the US dollar, you will receive a loss on two positions and lose 2%. Therefore, try not to open multiple positions on correlating currency pairs, or at least be aware of the possible risks. Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
Education
by Lingrid
21
BTC: Further downside expected!!Bitcoin Intraday - We look to Sell a break of 19788 (stop at 20501) With signals for sentiment at oversold extremes, the dip could not be extended. We have a 78.6% Fibonacci pullback level of 17800 from 3850 to 69000. Trading close to the psychological 20000 level. 20080 has been pivotal. A break of the recent low at 19900 should result in a further move lower. Our profit targets will be 18051 and 17651 Resistance: 21000 / 22000 / 23000 Support: 20000 / 19000 / 18000 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’ ). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
VANTAGE:BTCUSDShort
by VantageMarkets
1
Ominous BTC Bars PatternRandom realization: If you take the region above the 52W MA during 2018-2000 (white line), take those candle patterns, and mash them together, you get a pattern which matches the current candles to a disturbing degree. The only difference being, of course, there wasn't a massive dump between the two pasted patterns. We dropped down multiple times in 2018 to test the 200W MA (light blue line). The market seems to be taking this as a bullish signal that we are still near the 52W MA, which seems reasonable: I was buying my ass off in Jan/Feb 2020 after bitcoin rallied from 7k to 10k, only to get burned. Whatever the market was doing near 7k, the herd sentiment was giving signals that it was the bottom. The market is giving us those same EXACT candlestick patterns right now around 38k, and I can't help but feel a sense of deja vu of identical market sentiment. My urge to "just make a trade" wants me make the trade, just like back then, and I can imagine mostly everyone else is doing so, but my gut is urging me not to fomo in without some sort of greater confirmation. These are certainly wholesale prices in this 35-50k range. I would expect it to fall somewhere between 10-25k, but I don't think it's going down much further than that, short-term. Current price to mine is about 12k. Long-term, however, unless there's some sort of destruction of USD supply taking place, which I seriously doubt will ever happen, it's not unreasonable to be extremely bullish. On the other hand, May seems like it could be a bullish month. April was certainly a disaster for prices, things seem awfully oversold. Maybe this is a good chance to follow my fomo for a short term position, similar to where bitcoin was ranging from 7-15k. But I shouldn't ignore my gut and become complacent with longs. How many taps does it take to break a glass floor? Especially with all these people jumping up and down on it, it looks kinda shaky, you know? With the FED meeting tomorrow, who really knows. It could go either way at this point. I hope you find this useful and thanks for reading! What do you think will happen? Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets ;)
INDEX:BTCUSD
by fringe_chartist
6
Are we the dumb one's? Don't think so...I know TA isn't always the best for AMC in the short term, but it helps to have an idea of what is coming in the next days/weeks/months. First, the chart respects Elliot wave with either 2 scenarios. A, we see a strong movement in the next few days since debt ceiling was supported till at least november/december, China Evergrande will not cause problems as we taught it would, regulations are "starting" to appear and will get into effect in the near term. With that being said, FUD is controled and people regain trust in the market slowly till the end of the year. Now B, it could happen that we see a more side ways movement respecting Elliot wave and Wyckoff accumulation which tells us that we are in phase c or d depending on your perspective and the time frame compared to the month of may run. Anyway... in conclusion i see a strong bullish movement since today a small break out confirmed that we are in a bull trend either than a bear trend on the daily and 4 hour charts. PS : I'm still eating green crayons till the day i see a million + dollars in my bank account. I'm not a financial advisor, this is not financial advice, i just like bananas and buying the dip. DD is pointless since we already know that are CEO A.A. is doing a fantastic job.
NYSE:AMCLong
by miheydudarevhec
1
Robinhood Traders Will pbly Hate Me for This.. Or Thank Me LaterWe all make mistakes, and we can either think it's unfair or we just grow up a better person... In this case apply it to investing.. Wouldn't you like to learn something ? I'm pretty rude in this one on purpose. But anyway my point here is that you need to understand that in a bubble... the last one standings are the one to pay the hard price or reality. Just make sure you're not among them... What happened within the bubble is not the point. I really hope you made money and that you'll be smart enough to don't try getting more at the risk of losing it all..
NASDAQ:AAPL
by PRO_Indicators
15
USDCAD Triangle To Push Prices Up, Up, Up!USDCAD holds above 1.4100 today which is an important level in the short term. The 4-hour chart is showing us that it is in a bullish triangle formation. The levels we must watch in mind are the following: 1.37865, 1.39588, 1.40548 - 1.42469, 1.43796, 1.45152 Note: If we lose the 1.39588 level, it is highly likely the next major support is around 1.37865. What do we have here? ✔️ Bull Triangle Formation ✔️ USDCAD- Holding Minor Support Level Thank you, Connor, Please feel free to follow me to get more analysis. On Tradingview I share 1hr, 4hr, 1D, 1W charting analysis across major instruments only. For more short term analysis and trading ideas please subscribe to The Margin Call.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn309537
Skulls, Bones And Candlesticks - The Margin CallIf you are a beginner in the wonderful world of charts, patterns and indicators, this post is for you... Almost all traders have on day faced an account crash and anyone knows that it is a damn bad moment to go through. My goal here is to identify what is the main reason leading to this morbid situation that make us crash our accounts...and provide some tips to avoid being in panic when the margin call happens. The leverage and margin level. The trading world is seen as an eldorado for most of people, especially because it seems so easy to make much money very quickly. It is also a path to financial independency which is a dream for many people. Working from home or simply working with only a smartphone and make money like that. It seems so nice. Let's be clear, If the leverage did not exist we would not be here on Tradingview. If trading knows as much succes, it is also because we can invest much more than we have in fact. With $1,000, we are able to invest up to $500,000 in the market... from our smartphone... Simply insane. Difficult to stay cold being aware of that. Who has never been in margin call here? This situation should never happen. If so, then your trading behavior is at risk and you will crash your account sooner or later. My solution: Always respect the 10% rule. Your overall margin including all opened position should never exceed 10% of your account. If your capital is $1,000 then your max margin would be $100. Even there it is only for agressive traders. Why the 10% rule can help you to succeed? In fact, you can use it as psychological barrier. As an example, you can face the case where you have a position in loss. I identify 3 main situations: A) You position is in an important loss. You are tempted to average down the entry price of the position by adding a new one on the same pair. Clearly the badest behavior. With the max margin at 10% you cannot add multiple positions without breaking the rule. It is your alert. B) You can also let the position run in loss without doing anything. Your stop loss? Psychologically, you are not able to handle such a loss so you pray for the market to reverse. It is possible depending of the fundamentals and technical configuration, if a huge support is broken, better worth closing the position. Letting the position run is risky but clearly much more acceptable than the A situation. C) Your position is in loss but you use a stop loss. The stop is hit but you accept this loss and look for a better opportunity to enter in the market again. Ideally on a support or a resistance. In definitive, being in margin call should warn you that your trading behavior is dangerous in a medium to long run. The probability for you to crash your acccount sooner or later is damn high.
Education
by Traderscope
1