$TSLA Down on Over-SpeculationNASDAQ:TSLA reported earnings after market close yesterday. Pro traders took profits before the close as the run became technically overextended. It gapped down today, but not on the extreme volume we'd expect from the usual HFT activity around earnings.
Profit and Operating margins are decreasing quarter over quarter, but revenues and net income are increasing.
This is not so much an onslaught of sellers but profit-taking along with a lack of buyers at this price range. As occurs often for this high-profile yet important EV company, the stock is over-speculated and needs to pattern out the excess. It could test the next support levels, but ultimately it's likely to head sideways as it challenges the resistance from Aug-Oct of last year...barring any surprises from Musk ;)
Dark Pool Buy Zones are in the bottom formation. The question is: will those buy zones be moved up or not?
Margins
Ant take this Jedi to the Moooooon!!!!The Force is super strong with Ant, Padawan, No need for my Lightsaber the Force is All i Need.
Supplementing Your Portfolio with NAIINAII is a sports nutrition and supplement company flushed with cash, no debt, and increased operating income over the last three years. Check out my latest analysis of the comp here: rockvuecapital.wordpress.com
The short of it: The market seems to be mis-pricing the tremendous margin and operating efficiency that NAII has compared to its peers. With higher margins, lower operating costs, and an peer leading ROA and ROE, I think the market is overemphasizing the recent downtrend in the company's earnings.
I entered at 11.35 with a stop loss at 10.00 in the paper account, risking 46bps of capital. I might add to this position if price advances in my favor.
Please be critical in your analysis, help me find my blind spots.
Always trying to improve,
Brandon
MSFT Microsoft - The Emperor Without (As Many) Clothes Maybe that is too extreme, but it hopefully caught your attention: I put a short sale recommendation last summer and MSFT and it had an excellent down-move from that publication. Now MSFT has made another earnings announcement and it has made a new high, it's time to revisit and see what valuation looks like. Well, the valuation is a problem.
The PSR or Price-to-Sales Ratio. The value of the company as a multiple of the underlying revenues of the firm is up to and above the peak of 4.77 times seen at the 2010 high. And back then MSFT had 25%+ and rising margins and today they have 13.5% and declining margins. That is a huge difference. Revenues are experiencing slower growth these days, far from the strong growth MSFT saw through the 1980's-1990's and 2000's.
I believe there is a time when you have to just vote with your feet and walk away from investments. Timing the ultimate demise (50% decline and no recovery) is a whole different business and one which I love to be part of and attempt to help you get in and get out investments at the right time to experience the least amount of stress, dissonance, doubt, or financial loss while at the same time getting the maximum gain possible given the risk taken.
MSFT 54.17 last, November 9th Monday's close.
I rate MSFT a "SELL" - "EXIT" - "UNDERPERFORM" the market going forward. If it doesn't underperform, the market must know something I don't or the people that buy MSFT just have more money than sense at this level. Ok, that sounds harsh. But, maybe I'll do even more research and see what I can find to prove myself wrong. Feel free to add your fundamental insights.
(Fundamental replies so far from users: Read the MSFT annual report to see their migration to the cloud from the desktop. Microsoft has been playing catch-up to Google-Docs.)
Tim
8:37AM - I published this Monday morning Nov 9th before the open for the KEY HIDDEN LEVELS CHAT ROOM and for TWITTER followers of @87spider, but made it "private" accidentally. I'm sharing it with the overall TradingView community now.