Hands off my bread! Let's go, Nintendo! The Age of Mar 10 is about to come and Q2 is about to begin! Why do I have a feeling that you will release the new hardware and games the day after Nvidia Reports its earnings!!?
Fundamentally sound.
IP alone is worth a billion dollars.
Handheld market will be back in the full swing w/ the new Mini console!
All indicators point to an oversold company.
The product line is solid; games have a very successful attachment rate; accessories are great additions; movie production swinging in gear, the amusement park in the works, summer Olympics of 2020 and toys toys toys!!
Lets go!
Mario
BUY EURUSD Good afternoon dear colleagues, investors and traders.
Your attention is given fundamentally - technical analysis of the currency pair: EURUSD.
"Mario Draghi - a volley of all weapons, sorry for that purpose by"
Last week Mario Draghi announced a comprehensive stimulus that should lead to a weakening of the single currency, as well as to an increase in inflation.
- Reduced refinancing rate to 0%.
- Increasing incentives on E. 20 billion.
- Reduction of the deposit rate to - 0.40%.
- Heightening tool purchases in QE.
- Valid TLTROII program.
These actions were predicted by us 28.02.2015
(Https://vk.com/wermelgion?w=wall-73415082_1811/all)
The first 3 steps lead to increased risks in the bond market and the creation of it, "Liquidity Risk" (uvelechenie Prize for it).
But the fourth measure gives life to financial instruments and banks to refinance their obligations under other long-term loans from the ECB at 0%.
QE program is not able to cause inflation to rise, even on the horizon of 3 - 4 years.
TLTRO - 4 summer program of cheap loans to banks, inflation is not dispersed, as all loans that banks get forwarded to the financial markets.
Reduced refinancing rate - lowers interest rates on the bonds: for example Germany's bonds:
2 - year - 0.46%
5 - year - 0.25%
10 - year: 0.31%
ECB actions will not lead to higher inflation and tools using the ECB is only stimulatory DCT.
As these actions are reflected in the German bond market:
Germany Sovereign Bond Index (index of sovereign bonds)
- Moved into negative territory before: -0.6%
Investment Grade European Corporate Bond Index (investment grade corporate bond index)
- Significantly increased up to: 4.91%
The graphs you can see from this link:
www.bloomberg.com ..
For the single currency, this means only one thing: the ECB plans to lower interest rates by increasing the money supply, as well as to spur business and consumption by providing cheap credits. However, this does not happen. We see a great example of the Fed, and perhaps it will spur job growth, but in order that it would stimulate inflation need a certain time after the unemployment rate closer to the conditions of full employment.
We continue to be bullish on the single currency is already causing 3 factors:
1) Basic fundamentals are at a height of:
• The dynamics of balance of payments 25 V.
• The dynamics of the trade balance 22 B.
As well as the previous data on the inflow of portfolio investments also provide the physical demand for the single European currency.
2) Technical Analysis:
Probable upward trend in more detail below.
3) Mooving average: 200 and 300 day moving averages crossed again, showing the change in trend in the short term.
We maintain our buy from:
1.0861
1.0932
1.1027
Also, we are opening a new deal:
#Buy EURUSD:
- Price: 1.1100 - 1.1110
#TP: 1.14
#SL: Not provided.
- Volume: 0.10% of the deposit.
••Technical analysis :
Well visible on the daily timeframe, the pair is in the uplink. In a more global sense in the pair has been observed for quite a long consolidation. Couple holding steady above the important support level of 1.08. The primary objective for the pair is the mark of 1.14, after its breakthrough is expected in the second goal of 1.20.
The CFTC has not yet had time to get data on the ECB: - the amount of net Short Euro looks small.
•• iWM levels: (Weekly)
Pivot price: 1.1061
If the price is above the H4 timeframe, then we recommend the purchase with the objectives of: 1.1300, 1.1465, 1.1695
If the price is below the H4 timeframe, then we recommend the sale with the objectives of: 1.0905, 1.0663
•• iWM levels: (Monthly)
Pivot price: 1.1023
If the price is higher in the D1 timeframe, then we recommend the purchase with the objectives of: 1.1227, 1.1582, 1.1789.
If the price is lower than on the D1 timeframe, then we recommend the sale with the objectives of: 1.0666, 1.0459, 1.0110.
wermelgion@gmail.com
Mixed situation after ECB's verbal interventionas you can see in my comments, I think we are now in a situation where we could potentially experience 3 outcomes to this macroeconomic puzzle.
Well now we have 3 possibilities
1) we start another rally up confirming the triangle and breaking to the up.. in that caseI can see ECB desperate in ecember increasing QE (25% chances)
2) we start plummeting, different figures will confirm the tech. side and yellen will come outwith FED rate hike and push the Euro to its lows of the year... we need big Rate hike for this... (25% chances)
3) we keep seen choppy mixed news from both sides, EU and USA suffering further from low inflation and unemployment slowing down with China playing a key paper (50% chances)
I am afraid that we will continue to see a mixed load of news from both sides of the atlantic, we will see good news from the USA strenghening the FED rate hike possibilities and also good news from EU that will push the euro up... unfortunatelly this will only maintain the fair price line as a pivot point that the euro will keep revisiting.
on another note, we are shifting north to this line so if this is not pushed further down, then i think this upper channel could end up confirmed and we will see an unstopable Euro.
ANOTHER THING... I nearly forgotten... just be vigilant of the SNB, the CHF is moving out of the "confort zone" and they could intervine like they have done in the past. Just protect yourself from extrain movements.
in summary,
- keep your eyes and ears on the ECB and FED future statements /Hints
- Maintain your risk low while there is no clear trend
- look for confirmation of levels, sacrifice 20 pips to gain confidence!
- use your common sense... dont buy the highs and sell the dips
- trade what you see.
- protect yourself from sudden moves but get used to volatility.
hope this helps all!!!
Natural Gas Major Pivot PointHi Traders,
The end of the line of the downtrend of Natural Gas (now at 3601) is very much in sight. This sputtering downtrend is to be followed soon by a significant reversal that would mark the beginning of a major uptrend.
The attached 1-hour chart displays the sub-minuette waves 1 and 2 (in green, bottom right) as part of a group of a 5 waves down that should be completed at the beginning of the week.
At weekly and daily level, this is the very end of a major A-B-C retracement.
TARGETS
first down to the area 3515-3475
then up to the area 4163-4187
Cheers. Mario D. Conti
au.linkedin.com/in/sydneytraders/