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Dangerous TOTAL2 PRZ?! Crypto market dump ahead? In order to have a bull market, it's essential to absorb more money; and I mean BIG MONEY! The main reason that crypto market made huge profits in 2021 was that more people understood what cryptocurrency actually is. This led to normal people (such as me and other new to crypto fellas) investing on this market hoping to get good profit and we got it! But how long would this bull run last? The answer lays beneath the TOTAL and TOTAL2 charts. These charts reveal how much money the entire market has absorbed. As I mentioned at first, the more money the market gains, the more it grows. But when the money slowly leaves, the Market Cycle Phase changes. You may ask what it means, so here's a simple explanation from Investopedia: 1. Accumulation phase: This phase occurs when the market has bottomed and the main investors such as big corporations, money managers and smart investors start buying. In this phase valuations are attractive, yet huge percentage of investors still consider the market bearish and the sentiment analysis say so. 2. Mark-Up Phase: During this phase, technicians see the movement in the market and other investors get on the bullish train and prices start to go higher and higher. This is investors favorite phase! No matter what you buy and when you buy it, you make great profits. 3. Distribution Phase: In this Phase, sellers start to dominate the market, the bullish sentiment changes to mixed sentiment and prices often move in trading range. As soon as this phase comes to the end, the prices start to reverse and classic patterns such as double top or triple top appear on charts. 4. Mark-Down Phase: Without any doubt, this phase is the scariest of all 4 and the nightmare of investors. During this phase, prices go lower and lower, the news would be all bearish. If we carefully observe the third phase and exit the market, our money can be safe but if not the nightmare would become real without any doubt. If you take a closer look you'll realize that the TOTAL2 was unable to go higher than the all time high. You don't even need to be a technician to notice that. I used the 4H time frame on purpose. It is possible to see bullish movements in short-term yet it all could just be a pull back in long-term. The market cycle I mentioned earlier is fractal which means there could be bullish mark-up cycle in 1H or 4H time frame but not in long term. In conclusion, this post wasn't here to scare you, but to inform you what could be awaiting us. The money I mentioned could leave one coin and be invested on another one, eg; from BTC to MANA or vise versa. This means it's still a very attractive market but you have to be more careful. Looking forward to hearing what you think!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2
by impressiveHero2001
UPST-- Time to go shortUPST-- bearish territory started. Might go down in waves. But the descend is on. The wild ride or more than 1000% gains since the beginning of the year are about to end. There will be a profit-taking cycle happening. Few data points, 1) 9 EMA crossing below 23 EMA 2) Price is not able to break above the trendline from recent highs. Forming lower lows on daily 3) Price is not able to break above 9EMA recently on 4hr and daily 4) 333 is acting as resistance from the left shoulder of the H&S pattern.... and in the distribution phase, as per stock cycles If you follow this chart, it is matching to the textbook representation of stock cycles. Will it go down before ER or after? Note: ER is on Nov 9th. It is time to watch this one. What do you guys think?
NASDAQ:UPSTShort
by nextgenm
1
DXY - Wyckoff Market Cycle Theory!Hello TradingView Family, this is Rich and I found DXY H4 chart interesting, following the famous/great Wyckoff Cycle as per Richard Wyckoff. First, What is Wyckoff Cycle? - Accumulation Phase The Accumulation stage is caused by increased institutional demand. Bulls are slowly gaining power and as a result, they are poised to push prices higher. - Markup Phase Bulls gain enough power to push the price through the upper level of the range. This is usually a signal that the price is entering the second stage and that a bullish trend is emerging on the chart. - Distribution Phase This phase is where the bears are attempting to regain authority over the market. The price action on the chart at this stage is flat, just like the Accumulation phase. - Markdown Phase The Markdown process comes as a downtrend and begins after the Distribution phase. It indicates that the bears have gained enough power to push the market downward. on DXY, the cycle phases are highlighted in the picture. In brief, we are now in the Distribution phase and we are waiting for a breakout below the last low for the bears to take over and the Markdown phase to start. Meanwhile, until the bears take over, DXY would be overall bullish and can still trade higher. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
TVC:DXY
by TheSignalyst
15
Part 1: A simple analysis of Wyckoff of Wall StreetWyckoff was a pioneer in the technical analysis of the stock market in the early 20th century. He established the Stock Market Academy in 1930. The main course is to introduce how to identify the dealer’s process of collecting chips and the process of distributing chips/judge. Second and third, in the basic law of "causality", the horizontal P&F count within the trading range represents the cause, and the subsequent price changes represent the result. Fourth, fifth, the relationship between price and volume on the candlestick chart to analyze the relationship between supply and demand. This law sounds simple, but it takes a long time to practice in order to accurately grasp the volume and price. I heard that Wall Street financial institutions are using Wyckoff's trading method to judge the trend of the stock market and look for opportunities. So what exactly is Wyckoff's theory? Today, I will introduce to you the famous Wyckoff transaction method. The background of the birth of Wyckoff theory Wyckoff's theory was proposed by Richard Wyckoff. He was a pioneer in the technical analysis of the stock market in the early 20th century. He and Dow Jones, Gunn, Elliott, and Merrill Lynch are considered the five giants of technical analysis. Wyckoff is good at summarizing his years of failures in stock investment and is committed to introducing individual investors to the rules of the game in the market and the impact of large funds behind them. In 1930, he established the Stock Market Academy. The main course is to introduce how to identify the dealer's process of collecting chips and the process of distributing chips. Till there are still many professional traders and institutional investors applying Wyckoff's method. Two Five Steps of Wyckoff Analysis (1) Determine the current state of the market and possible future trends. Judging the current market trends and future trends can help us decide whether to enter the market and go long or short. (2) Choose stocks that are consistent with market trends. In an uptrend, choose stocks that are trending stronger than the market. In a downtrend, choose stocks that are weaker than the market. (3) Choose stocks whose "reason" equals or exceeds your minimum target. An important part of Wyckoff's trading selection and management is his unique method of using long-term and short-term trading point forecasts to determine price targets. In Wyckoff's basic law of "causality", the horizontal P&F count within the trading range represents the cause, and subsequent price changes represent the result. (4) Make sure that the stock is ready to move. (5) When the stock market index reverses, there must be contingency measures Three-quarters of the stocks are moving in line with the market. Grasping the market trends can increase the success rate of transactions. Wyckoff's price cycle Wyckoff believes that through detailed supply and demand analysis, including research on price behavior, volume, and time. The market can be understood and predicted. Wyckoff's 3-Laws Wyckoff’s icon analysis method is based on three laws, which affect all aspects of stock analysis. For example, the forecast of the market and individual stocks, how to select stocks, and the appropriate points to enter the market. 1. The principle of supply and demand determines the direction of the price. When supply is less than demand, prices will rise; when supply exceeds demand, prices will fall. Traders can analyze the relationship between supply and demand through the relationship between price and volume on the K-line chart. This law sounds simple, but it takes a long time to practice to accurately grasp the relationship between volume and price. 2. The principle of causality can explain the magnitude of future price rises and falls. Causality can help investors predict target prices. Calculate the size of the future market by calculating the chips in the sideways interval. You can use a point and figure chart to analyze the cause and predict the result. The "cause" is the number of points in the horizontal interval in the point and figure chart, and the "effect" is the ups and downs of the stock price caused by these points. 3. The principle of inconsistent volume and price can provide an early warning of trend changes. Inconsistency between volume and stock prices is often a signal of a change in trend. For example, in the case of continuous heavy volume, the increase in stock prices is getting smaller and smaller. This phenomenon shows that the dealer is shipping. Application of Wyckoff Transaction Law Let's use the dollar index to explain some of Wyckoff's concepts. The long-term bear market after its peak in 2001 ended in 2009. The fall method without resistance from 2001 to 2005 has proved to be an oversold market, and then the rebound in 2005 was relatively large, which we call the market-to-sales ratio (PS), and the subsequent fall speed tells us that the trigeminal indicator (SC) occurred NS. Looking at the increase in AR, the loss of SC is almost flattened, and the resistance of the supply line is completely negated, which shows that demand has absorbed the selling in the supply area. Wyckoff believes that the popularity indicator (AR) is the beginning of the true volatility (TR). Whether this TR is distributed or demanded depends on subsequent development. During the development of TR, CM's methods began to show. From their behavioral characteristics, it can be seen that this TR is a collection and distribution. Of course, after knowing the accumulation or distribution, you also know whether the market outlook is entering a bull market or continuing a bear market. In 2009 and 2011, the position of the ST tells us that the demand is greater than the supply. Otherwise, the demand generated on the SC will be absorbed by the large supply, causing the bear market to continue. Based on these characteristics, we judged that the accumulation may be greater than the distribution. Because if it is a distribution, the supply is still surplus, then any demand accumulated by the rebound will not help, and the price can only continue to look for greater demand. In conclusion: For the Wyckoff transaction law, many professional traders are using it, but the retail public is still not widely used. The completeness, systematicness, and logic of Wyckoff's method, as well as the ability to find high-probability and high-yield transactions, make his stock selection method and investment strategy stand the test of time. Wyckoff’s training methods enable investors to make sensible, fact-based trading decisions without being disturbed by emotions. Using the Wyckoff method, traders can put funds on the side of the smart money that is the main force in the market. As the content of Wyckoff transaction law is more, more knowledge about Wyckoff transaction law, I will write another article to introduce to you.
NSE:SBINEducation
by forextidings
5
Wyckoff - Rally Back to the IceBreaking of the "Ice" (the ice was support throughout the distribution) happened the other day with that sharp drop from 43k to 30k. According to the Wyckoff distribution, there is always a rally back to test that break. This is to confirm that the demand is still scarce. I speculate if the price does not break and hold above 42.5k on the daily then the markdown will continue and this time the target could possibly be around 21.5k. The Wyckoff distribution has been textbook so far since it began, so I do not see any reason to doubt this. Other bearish signs include falling out of a rising wedge recently and leaving a graveyard doji behind on the 4H (4am UTC). Be very careful now trading during this time. ***Disclaimer: I am not a financial professional/expert and all ideas from me are all speculation based off of my own research. Please do your own research as well as I am not responsible for others when it comes to their financial decisions.***
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by WITSIT
2
Did you see that ?This is really interesting ... time to mark down ... Rsi divergence, price rectangle channel and we are testing the mid line ! We were in this channel for more that 2 weeks, we touched top of the channel several times and it rejected us ! we hit the bottom, it rejected us ! but mid line? it opened arms and she hugged us! we are going down ... I recommend to longs ... be careful on this one. If you liked it, please hit the like button, share and write your comments and follow me, thanks for reading. Take care, trade safe
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by AminHa4
10
JSE:TKG Telkom Great Wykoff StudyIt is not a good time to buy Telkom but it makes a good study of the Wyckoff principles. The first thing to notice is the pattern: Markdown - Accumulation - Markup - Distribution - Markdown - Accumulation - Markup and now potentially forming a range again. The next notice the two ways that markups and markdowns en: 1) The first Markup and Markdown ended by an inability to move to the oversold or overbought trend line, 2) The second two had over throws of the lines. Both these setup resulted in a trading range forming. The next thing is to notice how the trading range forms. Only the main labels are added to have less clutter. Volume increases on the Preliminary Supply (PSY) or Support (PS) and it is possible to even be the highest volume for the range as is the case in the Distribution Range. Next a Selling (SC) or Buying (BC) Climax is formed on volume stopping the trend (Phase A). After a Aromatic Rally (AR) or Automatic Reaction (AR) (Still Phase A) a period of low volume in the TR forms where the Composite Operator (CO) is carefully either Distribution or Accumulating stock (Phase B). Once this is done the TR ends in a Spring; Upthrust after Distribution (UTAD) or Last Point of Supply (LPSY) / Support (LPS) Before breaking the TR (Phase C). Once it has been marked out of the TR a backup to the trading range first takes place (Phase D) before the Markup or Markdown can begin (Phase E). Also notice how the Volume RSI can assist in providing a clue if an accumulation or distribution is forming.
JSE:TKG
by SteynTrade
4
Bitcoin Cause & EffectCause and effect the cornerstone of Wyckoff methodology. Time to get physical, Isaac Newton famously once said ‘For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction’. With that in mind, let's use it analyse the previous cycles on BTC… Aprils accumulation (cause) and markup phase (effect). Accumulation lasted 13days and markup lasted an equal amount of time. NOTE: dropping volume on markup Mays distribution (cause) and markup phase (effect). Distribution lasted 26days and markdown lasted 23days. :thonking June/Julys accumulation (cause) lasted 34days. Markup is yet to be defined but based on these findings I think there's a strong chance that this markup cycle lasts a similar amount of time. NOTE: Expanding volume on markup Obviously, this is highly speculative but most definitely worth keeping in mind when calling distribution, the top or have weak shakey childs like hands. :thonking Twitter feed here -> twitter.com
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by DickieWyckoff
3