$SOFI is poised to reach the $20 range following its correctionNASDAQ:SOFI 's price began 2025 at $15.40. Today, it traded at $15.56, marking a 1% increase since the start of the year. The forecasted price for SoFi at the end of 2025 is $41.23, representing a year-over-year change of +168%. The expected rise from today to year-end is +165%.
By mid-2025, the price is projected to reach $20-$29.56.
Strong Growth Prospects: NASDAQ:SOFI has shown significant growth in revenue and profitability. The company reported a 35.8% year-over-year revenue growth and a 45% net profit margin in 20241.
Positive Market Trends: Analysts are optimistic about NASDAQ:SOFI 's future performance, with some projecting a 72% upside potential, targeting a $25 share price.
Diverse Financial Services: NASDAQ:SOFI offers a wide range of financial services, including lending, investing, and banking, which helps diversify its revenue streams and reduce risk.
Member Growth: The company has been experiencing robust member growth, which is a positive indicator of its expanding customer base and market reach.
Buy NASDAQ:SOFI now and let's get wealthy!
Market
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.21.2025🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News:
🇺🇸🛢️ Trump Considers 25% Tariff on Imported Cars: President Donald Trump has announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on imported automobiles, aiming to protect domestic manufacturers. This move could impact global trade relations and the automotive industry.
🇷🇺🇺🇸 U.S.-Russia Diplomatic Talks: High-level discussions between U.S. and Russian officials are set to continue, focusing on resolving the ongoing Ukraine conflict. Outcomes from these talks may influence global markets and geopolitical stability.
📊 Key Data Releases:
📅 Friday, Feb 21:
🏭 Manufacturing PMI (9:45 AM ET): Forecast: 51.3; Previous: 51.2.
💼 Services PMI (9:45 AM ET): Forecast: 53.0; Previous: 52.9.
🏠 Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 4.13M; Previous: 4.24M.
📉 Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 71.1; Previous: 67.8.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.20.2025🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News:
🇰🇷📉 Samsung Share Cancellation: Samsung Electronics plans to cancel over 57 million shares, including 50.1 million common shares and 6.9 million preferred shares, on February 20. This move aims to reduce the total number of issued shares without decreasing the company's capital.
📊 Key Data Releases:
📅 Thursday, Feb 20:
🏭 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 19.4; Previous: 44.3.
📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 214K; Previous: 213K.
📈 Leading Index (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: -0.1%; Previous: -0.1%.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
XAUUSD ANALYSIS FOR THE WEEKXAU/USD (Gold vs. US Dollar) Analysis: February 17 – Febrauary 25, 2025
This analysis provides an in-depth evaluation of gold’s potential trajectory over the specified period, integrating fundamental drivers, technical indicators, and expert forecasts. Key factors influencing gold include geopolitical risks, monetary policy shifts, inflation trends, and technical patterns.
1. Fundamental Drivers
A. Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty
Trade Tensions: The U.S. administration’s recent tariffs (e.g., 25% on Mexican and Canadian imports, 10% on Chinese goods) have amplified global trade risks, increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Middle East and China Risks: Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a slowdown in China’s economy (evidenced by a decline in the Caixin PMI) are further driving investors toward gold.
B. Monetary Policy and Inflation
Fed Rate Cuts: Expectations of two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 and dovish stances from the ECB and BoE are weakening fiat currencies, boosting gold prices.
Inflation Hedge: Persistent inflation, driven by tariffs and supply-chain disruptions, enhances gold’s appeal. Analysts caution that U.S. inflation could exceed targets, forcing the Fed to reverse rate cuts, which may temporarily support the USD but ultimately favor gold.
C. Central Bank Demand
Central banks, notably China’s PBOC, are accumulating gold reserves to diversify away from the USD, creating structural demand.
2. Technical Analysis
A. Short-Term Signals (February–March)
Momentum Indicators: The RSI (26.05) and Stochastic Oscillator (14.5) signal oversold conditions, suggesting a potential rebound.
Key Levels:
Support: $2,830 (February 10 analysis) and $2,720 (ascending channel lower boundary).
Resistance: $2,887 (immediate target) and $2,900 (psychological barrier).
2. Key Technical Levels
Support Levels:
Immediate Support: $2,880 – This level aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the recent rally.
Critical Support: $2,850 – Represents the lower boundary of the ascending channel formed since late 2024.
Resistance Levels:
Immediate Resistance: $2,920 – A breach could trigger bullish momentum toward higher targets.
Key Resistance: $2,959 – The upper boundary of the channel and a major psychological level.
3. Momentum Indicators
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently at 62, indicating bullish momentum but approaching overbought territory.
Moving Averages (MA):
50-Day MA: Positioned at $2,910, offering dynamic support.
200-Day MA: Located at $2,780, signaling long-term strength.
Stochastic Oscillator: Signals potential upside as it exits oversold conditions on the 4-hour chart.
4. Chart Patterns and Trends
Ascending Channel: Gold continues to trade within an ascending channel, maintaining a bullish structure.
Bullish Flag Formation: On the daily chart, a bullish flag suggests a potential breakout if prices sustain above $2,920.
Candlestick Signals: Last Friday’s bullish engulfing pattern highlights strong buying interest.
5. Scenarios for the Week
Bullish Scenario:
A breakout above $2,920 could target $2,965 and $3,000.
Momentum indicators support further upside if geopolitical tensions persist.
Bearish Scenario:
A failure to hold $2,880 may lead to a decline toward $2,850.
Profit-taking or USD strength could pressure gold, particularly if U.S. economic data surprises positively.
Bullish Targets/ Resistance
2890
2906
2928
2934
2959
2972
2987
3023
Bearish/Support
2872
2857
2841
2807
2781
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.19.2025🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News:
🇺🇸🗣️ President Trump's Address: At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, February 18, President Trump is scheduled to deliver a speech that may provide insights into upcoming policy directions.
📱🍏 Apple Product Launch: Apple CEO Tim Cook has announced a new product launch set for February 19, 2025. Speculations suggest it could be the iPhone SE 4, featuring a 6.1-inch OLED display and an A18 chip with Apple Intelligence.
📊 Key Data Releases:
🏠 Housing Starts (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 1.390M; Previous: 1.499M.
📄 FOMC Meeting Minutes (2:00 PM ET): Detailed insights into the Federal Reserve's policy discussions from the January meeting.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
ETH Updated Building Blocks...Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
As per our last analysis, ETH broke below the $2,500 mark to enter long-term bearish territory.
Here is the updated Building Blocks:
📉 Short-Term Bearish:
ETH is currently trading within a short-term bullish block between $2,500 and $3,000.
📉 Long-Term Bearish:
If the $2,500 level is broken to the downside, a long-term bearish movement toward the lower bound of the long-term bearish block, around the $2,100 mark, is expected.
📈 Short-Term Bullish:
If ETH breaks above the short-term bullish block at $3,000, it will enter a short-term bullish block phase.
📈 Long-Term Bullish:
If the $3,500 resistance level is broken to the upside, ETH is expected to enter a long-term bullish block, initiating a new bullish phase toward the $4,000 mark.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Weekly Market Outlook: February 18 – 21, 2025🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News:
🇺🇸📈 U.S. Tariffs Implementation: President Donald Trump has signed executive orders imposing a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on imports from China. These tariffs are set to take effect on Tuesday, February 18, 2025.
🇷🇺🇺🇸 Diplomatic Talks: Senior U.S. and Russian officials are scheduled to meet in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on February 18 to discuss the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and explore potential resolutions.
🇩🇪🗳️ German Snap Election: Germany is set to hold a snap election this week, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) expected to perform well, potentially influencing European markets.
📊 Key Data Releases:
Tuesday, Feb 18:
🇺🇸🏭 NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (8:30 AM ET): Measures manufacturing activity in New York State.
🇺🇸🗣️ U.S. President Trump Speech (3:00 PM ET): Insights into potential policy directions and economic outlook.
Wednesday, Feb 19:
🇺🇸🏠 Housing Starts (8:30 AM ET): Data on new residential construction projects.
🇺🇸📄 FOMC Meeting Minutes (2:00 PM ET): Detailed insights into the Federal Reserve's policy discussions from the January meeting.
Thursday, Feb 20:
🇺🇸📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Weekly data on unemployment claims.
🇺🇸🏭 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (8:30 AM ET): Indicator of manufacturing sector health in the Philadelphia region.
Friday, Feb 21:
🇺🇸🏭 S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI (9:45 AM ET): Preliminary data on manufacturing sector performance.
🇺🇸🏠 Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET): Reports on the number of previously owned homes sold.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Forex: Why and How to Use TradingView
Dear readers, I am Trader Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about the reason why I use TradingView.
The Forex (Foreign Exchange) market is one of the largest and most dynamic in the world, with over 6 trillion dollars traded every day.
TradingView is one of the most popular platforms for technical analysis and chart viewing, particularly appreciated by Forex traders. In this guide, we will explore how to use TradingView to trade Forex, taking advantage of the tools and features offered by the platform.
What is TradingView?
TradingView is a technical analysis platform that offers advanced charts, drawing tools, customizable indicators, and an active community of traders. Among its main features:
Real-time charts on any timeframe, from 1 minute to daily or weekly.
Technical indicators such as RSI, MACD, moving averages, and much more.
Social trading to share ideas with other traders and learn from their analysis.
Drawing tools to plot trends, channels, and Fibonacci.
With its user-friendly interface, TradingView is ideal for beginner traders and those looking for advanced analysis.
How to Trade Forex with TradingView
1. Choose a Currency Pair
The first step to start trading Forex is to choose a currency pair to analyze, such as EUR/USD or GBP/JPY. Each pair represents the value relationship between two currencies. For example, in the case of EUR/USD, the base currency is the Euro and the counter currency is the US Dollar.
2. Use Charts
TradingView offers several views:
Candlestick Chart: Shows price movements in specific time frames. It is the most used chart in Forex.
Line Chart: Shows only closing prices, useful for observing general trends.
Bar Chart: Shows the open, close, high and low for each period.
These visualizations help you better understand the market trend.
3. Set Indicators
Indicators are essential tools in technical trading. On TradingView, you can use:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Shows whether a currency pair is overbought or oversold (levels above 70 indicate overbought, below 30 oversold).
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Provides trend reversal signals and can be used to confirm the market direction.
Moving Averages (MA): Helps identify the market direction and filter trading signals.
4. Customize Drawing Tools
TradingView offers powerful drawing tools such as:
Trend Lines: To plot support and resistance levels.
Fibonacci Retracement: To identify key price reversal levels.
Channels: To analyze price movements within a defined range.
These tools allow you to precisely track market entry and exit points.
5. Create Alerts
TradingView allows you to set custom alerts. You can receive notifications via email or directly on the platform when the price reaches certain levels. This is particularly useful for not missing important trading opportunities.
Forex Trading Strategies
1. Trend Trading
One of the most common strategies is trend following. When the market is in an uptrend (bullish trend), buy; when it is in a downtrend (bearish trend), sell. Use moving averages or the MACD indicator to identify the direction of the trend.
2. Retracement Trading
Retracements are corrective movements within a trend. You can use Fibonacci Retracement to identify support and resistance levels, and wait for the price to retrace before entering the market in the direction of the main trend.
3. Scalping
Scalping is a short-term strategy that aims to make small profits from rapid price movements. Use short timeframes (for example 1 minute or 5 minutes) and take advantage of spikes in volatility.
4. Breakout Trading
Breakout trading is based on breaking key support or resistance levels. When the price breaks these levels, a strong move in one direction is expected. Indicators such as ATR (Average True Range) help you monitor volatility and choose the right times to enter the market.
Forex Trading Tips
Risk Management: Forex is a highly leveraged market, so protecting your capital is key. Use stop losses and take profits to limit losses and protect gains.
Conclusions
TradingView is an excellent tool for Forex trading, thanks to its wide range of advanced features, ease of use and the ability to analyze charts accurately.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.14.2025🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News:
Trump Signs Reciprocal Tariffs Executive Order: President Donald Trump has signed an executive order imposing reciprocal tariffs on countries with trade barriers against the U.S. The tariffs will not take effect immediately, which has been well-received by the markets.
Potential Ukraine Peace Talks: The U.S. is initiating discussions with Russia and Ukraine to potentially end the ongoing conflict. This development has led to a decrease in crude oil prices and could influence global markets.
📊 Key Data Releases:
📅 Friday, Feb 14:
🛍️ Retail Sales (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: -0.1% MoM; Previous: +0.4% MoM.
🌐 U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes (8:30 AM ET):
Import Prices: Forecast: +0.5% MoM; Previous: +0.1% MoM.
Export Prices: Forecast: Data not available; Previous: +0.3% MoM
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #daytrading #charting #trendtao
what moved xauusd to 2940Gold prices have recently surged to a record high of $2,940 per ounce, driven by several key factors:
1. New U.S. Tariffs: President Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports has heightened concerns over potential trade wars and inflation. Investors are turning to gold as a safe-haven asset to hedge against these uncertainties.
2. Inflation Concerns: The impending release of inflation data has investors bracing for potential economic impacts. A weaker-than-expected reading could bolster gold's rally by increasing expectations of rate cuts, making non-yielding gold more attractive compared to interest-bearing alternatives.
3. Central Bank Purchases: Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, have been significantly increasing their gold reserves. This trend reflects a desire to diversify assets and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar, further driving up gold demand and prices.
4. Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing global uncertainties, including conflicts in the Middle East and tensions between major economies, have led investors to seek the stability that gold offers during turbulent times.
These combined factors have propelled gold to its current record levels, as investors seek security amid economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Scenarios for 2.11.2025🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News:
🇺🇸🏛️ Fed Chair Powell Testifies – Insights into economic outlook and monetary policy.
📊 Key Data Releases:
🏢 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (6:00 AM ET): Previous: 102.7.
📈 Redbook Index (8:55 AM ET): Previous: +5.7% YoY.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPX #SPY #daytrading #charting #trendtao
XAUUSD analysis for the weekLet’s craft a forward-looking analysis for XAU/USD (gold) based on plausible macroeconomic narratives, historical patterns, and potential catalysts. Keep in mind this is a speculative exercise—actual outcomes depend on unpredictable events.
Key Factors Shaping XAU/USD
1. Federal Reserve Policy
Bullish for Gold: Lower real interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
Risk: If the Fed pauses or signals a "higher for longer" stance due to sticky inflation, gold could face headwinds.
2. U.S. Dollar Dynamics
A weaker USD (due to rate cuts or fiscal concerns, e.g., U.S. debt sustainability debates) would amplify gold’s appeal.
A stronger USD (safe-haven demand during a global recession or Fed policy reversal) could pressure gold.
3. Global Recession Risks
If major economies (EU, China) slide into recession, gold may rally as a safe haven, even if the USD strengthens temporarily.
4. Geopolitical Landscape
U.S. Election Aftermath: Policy uncertainty post-2024 election (taxes, tariffs, fiscal spending) could drive volatility.
New Conflicts: Escalation in Taiwan, Middle East, or Russia-NATO tensions would boost gold demand.
5. Central Bank Demand
Continued diversification away from USD reserves (e.g., BRICS+ nations) may sustain structural gold buying.
6. Inflation Trends
A resurgence of inflation (e.g., energy shocks, supply chain disruptions) would reignite gold’s role as an inflation hedge.
Scenario 1: Bullish Rally (2900–3000)
Catalysts:
Fed cuts rates aggressively (150+ bps total) amid a U.S. growth slowdown.
China’s property crisis spirals, triggering global risk-off sentiment.
Middle East conflict disrupts oil flows, spiking inflation.
Technical Outlook: A breakout above $3,000 (psychological barrier) could trigger algorithmic buying and FOMO momentum.
Scenario 2: Bearish Correction (2800-2600)
Catalysts:
Fed halts cuts due to stubborn inflation (CPI rebounds to 3.5%+).
USD surges as EU/Japan face deeper recessions.
Central banks slow gold purchases, ETFs see outflows.
Technical Outlook: A drop below $2,800 (hypothetical 2024 support) could trigger stop-loss cascades.
Scenario 3: Sideways Churn (2750-2900)
Catalysts:
Markets digest conflicting data (mixed growth, moderate inflation).
Geopolitical “cold wars” (U.S.-China tech/trade) persist without escalation.
Technical Outlook: Range-bound action as bulls and bears await clarity.
Strategic Takeaways
Prepare for Volatility: Gold will react sharply to Fed policy shifts and geopolitical “surprises.”
Watch the USD: A sustained DXY breakdown below 106 could turbocharge gold’s rally.
Risk Management: Use options or trailing stops—gold’s moves could be exaggerated in thin liquidity.
Final Note
By February 2025, gold’s path will depend on how 2024’s unresolved macro risks (debt, inflation, elections) unfold. While the long-term bullish case for gold remains intact (debasement hedging, de-dollarization), short-term swings will hinge on Fed credibility.
PLEASE BOOST US FOLLOW US AND SHARE OUR ANALYSIS
XAUUSD WEEKLY WRAP UP
This week, Gold (XAU/USD) continued its upward trajectory, achieving a sixth consecutive weekly gain. The metal reached a new record high above $2,880, reflecting sustained bullish momentum.
Key Influencing Factors:
Federal Reserve Commentary: Remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell contributed to market optimism, supporting the rally in gold prices.
Technical Levels: Gold approached the significant psychological level of $3,000 per ounce, with analysts suggesting that surpassing this threshold could be a potential game-changer for the metal.
Outlook:
The market's focus is now on upcoming U.S. economic data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which could serve as a catalyst for further price movements. A higher-than-expected CPI reading may bolster expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve, potentially exerting downward pressure on gold. Conversely, a softer CPI could support continued gains in gold prices.
Traders are advised to monitor these developments closely, as they will play a crucial role in shaping gold's trajectory in the near term.
FOLLOW US BOOST US FOR MORE MARKET RELATED NEWS ANALYSIS AND UPDATES
NFP LESS THAN EXPECTED. KEY LEVELS TO WATCHThe U.S. Non-farm Payrolls Changed By 143,000 In January, Compared With Expectations Of 175,000 And A Previous Value Of 256,000
KEY LEVELS.
We expect a rise in xauusd value to 2894 .
2869
2874
2883
2889
2894
2910
Alternative scenario
if 2860 is broken it may fall to 2855 and 2840 can act as a strong support.
the ultimate support for current scenario is 2833.
follow us for further updates boost us so that we can reach more people
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Scenarios for 2.7.2025 🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News:
🇺🇸🤝🇨🇦🇲🇽 Tariff Developments: The U.S. has announced a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, set to take effect on March 4, 2025, following a 30-day delay after negotiations.
🇺🇸📈🇨🇳 Tariffs on China: A 10% tariff on Chinese imports was implemented on February 4, 2025. In response, China has announced retaliatory tariffs ranging from 10% to 15% on select U.S. goods, effective February 10, 2025.
📊 Key Data Releases:
🏢 Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +165K | Previous: +150K
📉 Unemployment Rate (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 4.1% | Previous: 4.1%
💵 Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +0.3% | Previous: +0.2%
💡 Market Scenarios:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ: A further gap up may lead to a rejection back down into the 6041 area.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ: Expect slight morning choppiness, followed by a significant sell-off either in the early morning or afternoon, dropping into 6025 before bouncing to close above 6041.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ: Consolidate lower and then pump back higher than 6025; that's the flip level.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPX #SPY #daytrading #charting #trendtao
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Scenarios for 2.5.2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News:
📊 Trade Balance: The U.S. trade deficit is expected to widen to $96.50 billion in December, up from $78.20 billion in November.
📈 Key Data Releases:
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (8:15 AM ET): 🏢 Forecast: 148K | Previous: 122K
Services PMI (9:45 AM ET): 🏭 Forecast: 52.8 | Previous: 56.8
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET): 📊 Forecast: 54.2 | Previous: 54.1
💡 Market Scenarios:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ: A further gap up will get a rejection below 6032.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ: Slight move higher as a continuation and drop down 1% off the HCZ.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ: Consolidate lower and pump back higher.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPX #SPY #daytrading #charting #trendtao
+55% in a day $CYCN compared $TSLA $NVDA -5% in drop marketWe can't be the only ones who actually made money overnight from Friday to Monday in this market?
This was the only daytrade held 🎯
NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:TSLA wake up into -5%
Woke up into +25% with NASDAQ:CYCN and continued to +55% from $4 to $6.25+
ETH 18000 DOLLARS BY SEPTEMBER 2025 God dam what a beautiful day it is , one dreams of such a entry in a bull market.
ETH will hit 18000 dollars by september 2025 there is nothing you can about it , this is the game, leverage wiped out and reset now we enter the "only up period" from this moment .
The key to finding out the next move was the USDT DOM like always pointing the way , the lower higher on the RSI showing divergence.
The money flow on MC indicator was very clearly showing this move , private indicator cant publish it on here.
The Fractal from 2020 on ETH is playing out FORGET THIS HAMMER WICK it is happening from here ETH will close in this channel and rally to 18k!
Do not give in to fear this is where you want to stack as much as possible . Invalidation of idea would be ETH closing a weekly candle under this ascending macro channel .
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Scenarios for 2.3.2025🔮
📅 Mon, Feb 3
⏰ 10:00 AM ET
📊 ISM Manufacturing PMI
Previous: 49.3
Forecast: 49.2
💡 Market Scenarios:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ:A further gap up would lead to it holding for a little, then chopping near the EEZ.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ:Breakout to the EEZ, make a higher push, and round out the top.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ:Due to the ongoing momentum, we will get a slight recovery but still drop and chop back down into the lower range.
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #charting #trendtao
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Scenarios for 1.31.2025🔮
📅 Fri Jan 31
⏰ 8:30am
📊 Core PCE Price Index m/m: 0.2% (prev: 0.1%)
📊 Employment Cost Index q/q: 0.9% (prev: 0.8%)
💡 Market Scenarios:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ:
A further gap up would lead to it holding a little, then chopping down into EEZ. Watch for resistance in the Hedge Pressure Zone before any reversal.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ:
Slight move higher from earnings, then drop lower into 6055. Expect some chop and potential liquidity sweeps before continuation.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ:
Consolidate lower into the Hedge Cushion Zone, then pump back higher. A strong bounce is likely if price interacts with the Weekly Hedge Cushion and liquidity builds up.
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #charting #trendtao
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Scenarios for 1.30.2025🔮 Nightly SP:SPX / AMEX:SPY Scenarios for 1.30.2025
📅 Thu Jan 30
⏰ 8:30am
📊 Advance GDP q/q: 2.7% (prev: 3.1%)
📊 Unemployment Claims: 221K (prev: 223K)
🌎Global Events:
🇪🇺 European Central Bank Meeting: The ECB is expected to announce its monetary policy decision, with markets anticipating a rate cut.
🇩🇪 Germany GDP Release: Germany will publish its GDP figures, providing insights into the health of Europe's largest economy.
💹 Market Insights:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ:
A further gap up would lead to it holding for a little, then chopping near the EEZ.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ:
Markets might overreact, but this meeting was void of new information. All things markets knew beforehand.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ:
We will likely bounce hard from these lower levels and hold higher.
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #charting #trendtao
2025 S&P500 Forecast Guess by Tim WestI included 2024's guess that I posted here in January last year which turned out to be quite accurate in terms of "action" and "direction". The volatility the market saw with wild swings back and forth was outlined on here as we reached the clusters of guesses from Wall Street estimates.
This is an old technique that I learned from Ken Fisher of Fisher Investments and from Forbes Magazine. His wise and witty insights were the foundation of my investment strategy when I started investing in the mid 1980's.
Basically, when you see what the "market expectations" are for a market like the FOREXCOM:SPX500 or S&P500 Index, you can then figure out what needs to happen to get the market to their estimates and realize the market will go to somewhere else other than their guesses.
With 2024 showing a majority of "less than historical average" forecasts and more downside forecasts, it was quite clear that the market could easily outpace or outperform those forecasts.
Now that 2025 shows that analysts are looking for an average year or more, I think it is safe to say that we won't get an average year.
We now have a rising US dollar, which hurts overseas earnings. We also have higher energy prices which also hurts earnings. And yet we have plenty of cash on the sidelines as everyone who missed the rally is hoping to buy on a decline and others are just happy to earn 5% on their cash balances thanks to an ultra-tight Fed (compared to the last 20 years).
So, I expect more of the same that we have seen in January and I also expect sharp declines if we get any moves above the highs and up towards 6500 on the SPX.