Market-analysis
USDCHF ANALYSIS Daily downtrend with break & retest just waiting for price to return to the resistance to then lower my timeframe to the H4 to start looking for entries! we also are in the golden zone of the fib levels I have marked blue
EURCAD shortEURCAD rejected his daily resistance, however, due to the volatility in the overall market, I was not tempted to trade where I would reject it. There was a retest and very clearly confirmed by the rejection of the dma 50 line, eurcad is creating a new HL location and I expect it to drop to 0.68 fib
DMART bulish swing setupDMART is looking bullish for a positonal trade. Giving a breakout with high volume then retesting the same levels and 20 EMA.
GOLD TO 2000.00 (PROBABILITY RATE 85%)GOLD'S RECENT CLOSING PRICE SIGNIFIES A BUYING PRESSURE IN THE MARKET WHICH MAY CAUSE THE PRICE OF THE COMMODITY TO RISE TO IT PREVIOUS SIGNIFICANT HIGHS 2000.00
CLOSING PRICE 1930.00 AREA, TENDS TO TAKE OUT RECENT SIGNIFICANT HIGH 1913.00 AREA CAUSING A CHANGE IN MARKET STRUCTURE.
THE CURRENT CLOSING PRICE ALSO SHOWS A BREAK OUT OF A TREND ON THE DAILIES CHART REPRESENTATION.
WE MAY SEE A PULLBACK AS IT OFTEN PLAYS OUT AFTER A STRONG PUSH BUT THE POTENTIAL DIRECTION PER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS BULLISH.
FIND A GOOD ENTRY POINT!
GOLD COULD BE IN A RANGE THIS WEEKHere is a trading idea of XAUUSD. the range is drawn in the form of a triangle. if this range is held. you will need to use a trailing stop if you take on a long position in gold because in a ranging market OF COURSE prices are not trending. the SL entry and tp targets are set. If you find my post helpful. please follow me here. I plan to post more ideas. My trading style is elliot wave influenced. As for the range for gold. i am expecting a long term up move. the red lined are last months high and low and ironically the upper red line is sitting at the previous all time high in 2011. if gold bounces off that area. we make see more uptrend movement. Thank you for reviewing my trade idea. please follow.
DMART Long Term stockDMART can be hold for long term as it has formed lower highs. 2000 would have been better but late than never.
Donot buy all at once... buy on every dip... simple terms buy at MACD levels below 30 and at support levels as shown in chart
EURUSD BREAK DOWN AND ANALYSIS FROM 7 AUG TO 13 AUG 2020This is my breakdown and technical analysis on EURUSD since last week Friday 7 Aug 2020
Still a new trader but i feel confident that i am getting the hang of it. All in good Time !!!!
Shorting opportunity - DMART testing its major support levelDMART has been testing its long time support level on the daily chart for quite some time now. A good momentum on the downside can lead to a major downfall. A strong bearish candle should be looked for in the coming days.
If the price closes above 2365, this study will stand invalid.
DHR: Long. With quick close conditionWill long DHR at open, and may very quickly close out the trade if the candle pattern and volume for the day invalidate my trade.
What I would like to see:
- a rejection pattern candlestick, or a big green candle tomorrow.
Stock Market Analysis - 4/23/2020 - $SPY $QQQ $IWM $VIXThe last two days of action in the indexes have definitely brought us, once again, to an important crossroads. Yesterday's bearish action broke down the short term uptrend on all major indexes meaning we are now in neutral territory on the short term trend. Now is the time for caution and to see what direction the markets are headed next.
After rolling over on Tuesday, SPY held support a 272 but held below the Anchored VWAP from the gap up two weeks ago that started this recent uptrend. Today's sharp retracement landed just below the falling 5DMA. We also broke that rising wedge pattern I pointed out on Monday. There are definitely signs that SPY is in trouble, but it is not yet clear if we are starting a new downtrend, or just relaxing in the intermediate uptrend. If we break down 272, this is will trigger a confirmed short term downtrend and I will get short some stocks and possibly long VXX. For a bullish case, I would want to see SPY retest the highs, pullback, then take off above the highs at 285.
QQQ broke down the rising wedge pattern from Monday but rejected the Anchored VWAP from the gap up. The current sharp retracement is just under a flat 5DMA. More information is needed to see where QQQ is going although it does seem it's just relaxing in the current intermediate uptrend. Remember, QQQ has not had a real pullback since bouncing from the lows up 30%. If QQQ breaks below 203, this will trigger a confirmed short term downtrend, although be careful of nearby support at the 200.
IWM looks like it is consolidating in a wedge pattern here and is current whipsawing the 5DMA. We shall see what direction IWM wants to go in the near term.
VIX had a nice little spike on Tuesday but ended up fading throughout the day today. The short and intermediate term trend has terminated with a rising 5DMA and flat 20DMA. Again, we shall see where VIX is headed from here.
Overall, if you currently are long, now is the time to tighten up stop losses. In case markets breakdown, you should be protecting those gains. I would not take any new long trades here until markets start to look productive above a rising 5DMA. Now is also a time to look for short ideas to take advantage of a short term downtrend.
Stock Market Analysis - 4/20/2020 - $SPY $QQQ $IWM $VIXBefore starting off this stock market analysis, I highly recommend listening a new podcast by Tom Canfield (@Canny4) and Joe Fahmy (@jfahmy) called The Market Rant. Very raw and informative. You'll definitely find some value in this podcast.
www.youtube.com
Since the last stock market analysis, I had thought markets were starting to rollover and the uptrend was waning. However, on Thursday after the close, we got news about the initial success in Gilead's remdesivir medication for treating COVID-19 and Trump's announcement about opening America. This caused markets to gap up on Friday above the prior highs and continued this uptrend. Markets are looking strong and I am sure there are a lot of people frustrated at this price action. If you are one of those people who think markets have gone up too far too fast, take a step back.
As a Trader, is it not your job to predict what will happen in the future. That is called gambling. Your job is to follow price action to determine what is most likely to happen in the future. Thinking that markets have to go lower because this virus is going to get worst and the economy is going to collapse due to horrid unemployment numbers is nonsense. It sounds terrible, however the reality is that markets continue to uptrend despite these prospects. Sure, I personally think that this bounce is very overextended, however I continue to stay long my stocks because I am following the price action rather than my personal views. My tip for today is to stay objective and remember that anything can happen in the markets.
First, looking at the SPY, we continue to trend higher with a close on Friday above the 50DMA. I expect this area to be a strong level of resistance therefore, unless we gap up on Monday, I could foresee some sideways chop to occur here. If we continue to trend higher, the next resistance will be 300 at the 200DMA. There is also a rising wedge forming which is a bearish pattern.
QQQ continues to be the strongest of the bunch as it has successfully reclaimed all major moving averages. The rise in QQQ has been quite steep and the rising wedge pattern forming is tightening quite a bit. QQQ is currently hitting resistance therefore price could find some trouble here.
IWM has not participated much in this current uptrend. Although we had an impressive gap up on Friday, IWM is still below the prior highs from last week. There is resistance at 125 therefore, like all the other indexes, IWM could find trouble here.
VIX continues to downtrend in a pretty obvious downward channel.
Stock Market Analysis - Uptrends in Trouble - $SPY $IWM $QQQThe last 3 trading days since the last analysis, we have seen more of the same bullish action. Many stocks, especially the NASDAQs, techs, and biotechs, were breaking out and running wild. I was able to catch some of the action with a DOCU long last week. However, there are some red flags popping up that could indicate that the uptrend is now terminating.
Starting out with SPY, since April 3rd, we have seen nice bullish action with higher highs and higher lows. Price was above the rising 5DMA (Green line) which is an excellent indicator of the short term trend. This was a time to get long in swing trades. Recently this pattern of higher highs and higher lows has been waning as SPY looks like it is about to rollover. The 5DMA has flatten out and price is now sitting right at this level. If SPY trades below 275 tomorrow, it is time to take profits on long trades and look to see where the markets are headed next. This is not an indication it is time to switch to the short side, this lower low just means it is time to be cautious about taking new trades.
During this market bounce, QQQ has been outperforming all other indexes by far and this action was reflected in the overall strength of the tech and biotech stocks. I am sure you noticed major strength in names like AMZN, MSFT, and NFLX for example. QQQ is currently uptrending and trading above all major moving averages. QQQ's uptrend continues to be healthy, however bearish action in the other indexes could start to weight QQQ down in the future. Despite the caution, strong action in techs and biotechs is good news for overall market strength.
IWM has always been the laggard index since the drop in February and continues to be so today. IWM has officially broken it's uptrend and it looks ugly. Price is now below the flattening 5DMA and I would not want to be long IWM right now. Whether this is an indication of future weakness in the overall market is yet to be seen. 112 is a level of potential support for IWM. Fundamentally, it makes sense for IWM to be the laggard as Small Cap companies are feeling the biggest hurt from COVID-19 and the economic shut down.
Despite the large gap up in VIX today, the downtrend in VIX is still valid. VIX is now trading right at the 5DMA and there is potential resistance at 45.
Right now is a time for caution. Although the bullish action and fading volatility has been a breath of fresh air, do not get complacent. We are still below a falling 200DMA which tells us the longer term market environment is still overall bearish. This is still considered a bounce from the lows and it is very extended. Thinking this is just another buy the dip event like December 2018 is a quick path to an account blowout. Buying the dip works great until it doesn't, at that point it becomes disastrous. Remember, when it comes to trading and market success, risk management is key. Control risk and practice proper risk management especially during uncertain times like these.
Stock Market Analysis - $SPY $QQQ $IWM $VIX - 4/13/2020Every few days I make it a habit to post my thought of the market conditions and my thought process as a swing trader. The point of this analysis is when I am analyzing my performance, I can look back to see what I was thinking and what kind of improvements should be made to my analysis. So far it has been extremely beneficial to write down my thought and publishing it on Tradingview forces me to care about the quality of each post. I highly recommend it even thought you may not be confident about your own analysis skills. Posting your thought is mostly for you as a journal - you could also make it a private post.
This past short trading week we had a very bullish continuation in this bounce. We managed to trend higher with a bullish short and intermediate term trend. Looking at SPY on the 65m chart, we are in a clear uptrend with a rising 5DMA and 20DMA. Both these moving averages indicate the direction of the short term and intermediate term trend respectively. We are still below a falling 50DMA therefore the overall longer trend is still bearish and I expect this area to become a level of resistance in the future. Last week I called out 260s as a level to watch and we clearly broke above and held this important resistance. I ended up going long ZS, DOCU, and AHPI last week due to this continuation move. Although the action is clearly bullish, I would be wary about how much further this can go. Right now, we are in a very extended bounce therefore although I am overall long, I am still taking smaller bites that usual in case this trend runs out of juice abruptly.
QQQ is currently hitting the all important 200DMA here. Like SPY, QQQ has been in a pretty extended bounce and I would not be surprised if QQQ starts to come back down from here.
Picture has improved on the weakest index IWM. IWM is currently up 29.5% off the lows, an already impressive bounce. Next important resistance to watch is 125s.
VIX continues to downtrend in a clear down sloping channel. This is continued action from last week.
Overall, long side trades should be taken but I would be careful chasing into this extended bounce. We are still long term bearish therefore start with small bites. I would want to see some kind of intermediate term pullback before we breakout again for some bullish action. Furthermore, the past few up days have been on relatively low volume. Bottoms are always marked by multiple high volume followthrough days which we have not seem much of yet.
Stock Market Analysis - 4/6/2020During the writing of this analysis, S&P futures are currently up 3.45%. We shall see where this potential gap up in the markets will take us tomorrow. In terms of fundamentals, nothing much as changed. I think markets are still trying to digest the effects of the stimulus and how the virus will impact the economy in the long term.
First lets look at SPY which is currently in a small range on the 30m timeframe. Friday I thought markets would breakdown however SPY was resilient throughout the day. With the potential gap up in mind on Monday, the key area to watch is the 20DMA at 253. If we can reject this MA, expect continued weakness. Otherwise if we break above, this is not a buy signal. The 20DMA is still falling and instead the short term trend is neutral. In order for a bullish case, I want to see the 20DMA rising as well as higher high and higher lows.
Like SPY, QQQ also rejected the 20DMA and looks like a Descending Triangle is forming on the 30m timeframe.
IWM is looking very interesting here for a bullish case. IWM has been the laggard during last weeks weakness but is forming a clear falling wedge on the 30m timeframe. Since a gap up is expected, IWM looks good till 109 where there is potential resistance at the 5DMA.
VIX looks like it's now in a clear downtrend. Despite the weakness last week, VIX continues to fade.
Stock Market Analysis - 4/1/2020Markets have shown us what direction it wants to go and the direction is down. Since the last analysis, markets were continuing an impressive but overextended bounce. The markets continued this action on Monday and through mid Tuesday. By late Tuesday, there were some big red flags that markets were cracking and this recent bounce may be over.
On the SPY I have been calling out the 260 area as a key level of resistance to watch. On Monday I had expected SPY to pullback to the 5DMA however what we got instead was a continuation move right below 260. Tuesday was a continuation of Monday's move, however SPY cracked when price fell below 260, retested it, and then closed LOD. Notice where we rejected; price rejected off a declining 20DMA, a clear signal that the longer term bear trend is still valid. This was actually an excellent area to get short after the 20DMA reject on Tuesday. For tomorrow, I expect SPY to continue this short term downtrend, however I will be watching the 237 level closely for support.
The action on QQQ is a reflection of SPY however QQQ suffered a little less pain in terms of downside. I'll be watching the 178 area as a level of support. Again, I won't go over IWM and DIA since the price action is pretty much the same as SPY. IWM did suffer the worst pain with a -6.81% drawdown.
VIX is probably the most interesting case study for today. Despite the impressive downside we experienced today, VIX did not react as severely as it did in the past. It seems as though volatility has already reached a peak - a good bullish sign. However, VIX is currently consolidating and could just be building up energy for a more powerful move in the near future. Tread carefully.
Overall, the short term trend is currently bearish. If you are bullish, I would not try to fight this trend till we see clear signs of bottoming. We are not guaranteed to see a retest of the lows however I would definitely not want to be long right now. Short trades can be taken however with tight stops and quick profit taking. Yesterday and today were perfect days to initiate a short trade (See my AMD short on 3/31/2020).
Stock Market Analysis - 3/30/2020Another action packed week in the books. The USA topped the leaderboard with the most cases on Friday and a 2$ trillion stimulus package has been approved by congress. This week we had a sharp retracement from the lows with a nearly 18% bounce from the lows to the highs, the sharpest in fact since 1933. It seems as though the things are looking hopefully and we should all just buy this dip... right? To be blunt, I have no idea where this market is heading at the moment, however I can tell you for sure we are at an important inflection point and caution should be taken.
For context, the recent decline since February has been the steepest in history, quite literally. We went from highs to down 35% in just 23 trading days. In comparison, a 35% drop during the Financial Crisis took nearly 5 months. Now that been said, what do you think follows the steepest decline in history? Well, just like Newton's Third Law of Motion, we would expect an equally impressive bounce; and this is exactly the price action we saw. However this is just that, a bounce; this does not mean the bear market is done. We could easily come back to the lows and continue the longer term downtrend. This is why we are at an important inflection point.
First lets look at SPY. Friday, following a gap down, SPY trended back up to resistance at 260 and rejected it was a big selloff in the last hour of trading. Notice price also rejected the top of the HVN. The short term uptrend seems to be terminated which would make sense after such an extended and steep bounce. For a bullish case, I would want to see SPY retest and reject the 248 area where support and the 5DMA align. 260 is definitely the area to watch for a breakout. If SPY looks like it's about to break above this important resistance, I plan to start loading up on longs. Otherwise, we may either trend sideways or retest lows.
Next, QQQ is looking seriously weak. QQQ underperformed compared to the other indexes and the "bounce" does not seem like much on the 30m timeframe. QQQ is currently rejecting the falling 20DMA which is not a good sign for a bullish case. QQQ looks like it's heading back to the 5DMA for a retest similar to SPY. The 20DMA is the area to watch for a breakout for a bullish case.
Despite the big bounce in the indexes, we have not seen VIX fall off a cliff yet as we would expect. This might be a signal that the bloodbath is not over yet. VIX is currently trading sideways and consolidating right under the 20DMA. It seems a breakout might be imminent.
Overall, despite all the good news and bullish price action lately, I would not start getting long here. We are in an overextended bounce and the short term and intermediate term trend is neutral. However watch the price action closely this week as we will definitely get some clues as to where this market is going.
Stock Market Analysis - 3/25/2020 - $SPY $DIA $QQQ $VIXIt seems like the overall market outlook has changed and for the better. With a looming $2 trillion stimulus on the horizon, markets have broke the intermediate trend and looks to be in a stage of recovery. Since my last analysis, I expected markets to start to consolidate at this level and this looks to be the case. Although the downtrend has terminated, this does not mean a uptrend has started. The intermediate trend is now neutral and we need to start looking for clues (higher lows and higher highs) that could initiate a new uptrend. Fundamentally, we still do not know what toll this virus will put on the economy. This will become more clear as unemployment, consumer sentiment, and industrial numbers for the quarter are released in the near future.
First, lets look at the SPY. Yesterday, SPY gapped up and broke above the downsloping trendline and closed at HOD - a good sign for a followthrough day. Today we got a somewhat flaky followthrough day as we closed at the middle on the range following a large selloff at the end of the day. The intermediate term trend is currently neutral. For a bullish case, I would like to see SPY test the 235-238 area where the 5DMA and Anchored VWAP from the lows align. Otherwise we could easily a retest of lows.
I won't go too in depth with QQQ and DIA today as they all look very similar to the action on SPY; however it is important to note today's changes in each index. QQQ closed red at -0.74%, DIA closed green at +2.54%. Notice the relative strength in DIA and relative weakness in QQQ. During Bear markets, it is common to see rotation out of previous leading sectors such as Technology (QQQ) and into utilities and industrials (DIA). A quick google search about Sector Rotation can better explain this phenomena. This type of price action are clear indicators we are in a bear market and until we see rotation back into leading sectors such as technology, this bear market will continue to persist.
The price action on VIX is quite telling for what the future could hold. Although we had a nice reaction bounce yesterday and today, VIX recovered it's initial gap down and closed green today. VIX looks like it is consolidating and could breakout tomorrow. I expect VIX to retest highs.
Overall, the intermediate trend and the short term trend are both neutral and volatility is still high. These are not favorable conditions for the swing trader. Until we see trending conditions, now is not the time to put on new trades. Instead, as a swing trader you should use this time to start looking for new long or short ideas. When markets start to trend, you will be ready to take advantage of the new leg up or down.
Stock Market Analysis - 3/18/2020The past few days since the last analysis I've made has been stunning and literally historic. As the coronavirus continues to threaten the American economy, POTUS and the Federal Reserve has made multiple attempts to shore up the economy is the face of a possible recession. The Federal Reserve for example has cut federal rates to nearly 0% as well as promised billions in money market purchases in order to keep interest rates low. POTUS has been focusing on emergency funding for small businesses, airlines, energy, and for the average American. All this "good" news and the stock market is still selling off! It seems nothing the feds and POTUS does will prevent the inevitable selloff.
As a stock market participant, you should not be despairing. Regardless of the catalyst, bear markets are essential for a healthy market. The recent bull market has been running for the past 11 years while the average bull market duration is only 3-4 years. Bear markets allow a lot of the dirt (AKA bubbles) to clear out and for new major trends and stock market leaders to emerge. The most lucrative bull trends will arise after the dust of the bear market clears. Be patient and a lot of money can be made.
SPY: SPY is in a clear downtrend with lower highs and lower lows. We are still below a declining 5DMA and the decline seems to be accelerating. A short term bounce seems imminent. SPY recent undercut the December 2018 lows but closed above it. I expect SPY to start relaxing and consolidating down here. However this is not to say the bottom is in as the downtrend is still valid.
QQQ: We are seeing some major relative strength in QQQ as QQQ has not undercut the December 2018 lows as other indexes have. Like SPY, QQQ is still in a clear downtrend below a declining 5DMA. The downtrend seems orderly and has no signs of stopping yet.
IWM: The weakness in IWM has been stellar as the downtrend continues. The downtrend has been very orderly but seems extended. A short term bounce or consolidation seems imminent.
VIX: Although VIX continues to climb, the increase as of late has been slowing down. This is a very good sign as we may start to see "normal" volatility in the future. I believe when we start to see VIX and the market decline concurrently, we can start to look for a bottom. For now, VIX continues to be at 52 week highs and circuit breaker halts are the new normal everyday.
Overall, now is not the time to put on new long or short positions. We are currently overextended on the bear side and the market is still in a clear downtrend on the bull side. The best course of action is to stay on the sidelines and watch. On a side note, Coronavirus related stocks such as GILD, APT, APHI, COST, WMT, CODX and more are exceptions to this rule. These stocks are likely to move regardless of market movement due to hype and speculation surrounding these stocks.
Stock Market Analysis - 3/12/2020The markets continue to accelerate to the downside as volatility continues to run higher. As a swing trader, there are three things I am doing in order to protect capital.
1. Lower risk - If you are putting on trade at this time, do so with reduced risk. Reduce your risk more than usual to protect yourself from the unusually large price swings that are common place in the current market.
2. Follow the 5DMA intermediate trend - Last week Friday and this past Tuesday, the markets closed bullish hinting to a possible reversal. Although a reversal was possible, the markets were still below a declining 5DMA, meaning it is not yet bullish. If you follow the 5DMA, you could have avoided these two bull traps. Here is an example by Brian Shannon: twitter.com
3. Staying on the sidelines - Aside from small bites here and there, I am typically staying on the sidelines. There is no reason to attempt to catch a falling knife; doing so in this current market conditions will simply leave you frustrated and emotional. It is much easier to just wait until the current market volatility subsides and a real bullish trend emerges.
The current market is for Day Traders. If you are day trading, you should be keeping risk small and avoiding overnight holds. If you do not have any day trading strategies or have not day traded before, you have no reason to do so now. Sleep in, wait on the side lines, and go have a beer.
SPY: Price action seems to be accelerating to the downside hinting at a possible exhaustion move in the near future. We are in a clear downtrend and SPY closed LOD meaning we are likely to see more selling tomorrow.
Stock Market Analysis - 3/10/2020The past 2 days of trading have been quite spectacular. We started Monday with a quick 7% limit down, recovered, trapped bulls, then collapsed again closing at the LOD. Monday's price action was fueled by continued Coronavirus fears over the weekend and collapses in world markets before the US open. Today we had the complete opposite price action and closed near HOD printing a Hammer on the Daily Chart. The end of day push today was fueled by possible payroll tax cuts and the Trump Administration's continued support of the US Stock Markets. Monday's price action showed us that although technical analysis is a good predictor of future price action, it cannot predict significant breaking news releases. The current market condition are unpredictable and volatile with lots of overhead news risk.
The first thing I want to note on the Daily chart of SPY is the RSI divergence. Although SPY made new lows on Monday, RSI did not make a new low. This is the first evidence of a possible bottom.
On the 30m timeframe, we managed to hold the 273.50 lows three times before breaking through resistance at 285 and the down sloping trendline on high volume. This was impressive price action for a bullish case however I would be careful. SPY is still below the 5DMA (Short term trend bearish) and there are some strong overhead resistance SPY still needs to get above to show strength. If SPY can break and hold above 294, I think this could be the start of a bullish trend.
Stock Market Analysis - 3/6/2020As a background, I do this type of analysis daily to gauge sentiment in the market. The reason for this analysis is to be on the right side of the market whenever I put on new trades. Have you even tried to run with the wind behind your back? Going long a stock when the general market supports a bullish sentiment is what it means to trade with the wind behind your back. Generally, 80% of stocks follow the general market direction therefore, although that stock you've been watching has a beautiful breakout pattern, if the general market is breaking down, that breakout pattern will probably end up being a fake out.
The markets this week have been a complete roller coaster. If you went long one day, you probably got stopped out the next day and vise versa. This is precisely what happened to me today as markets gapped down 3% today but closed strong and this is what occurs in high volatility market conditions. This type of price action is a day traders dream but a nightmare for swing traders like me. The best thing to do right now, if you are a swing trader, is simply not participate.
