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Market-analysis

Market Cycle of an Emotional Roller CoasterWhen things are great, we feel that nothing can stop us. And when things go bad, we look to take drastic action. Because emotions can be such a threat to an investor's financial health, it is important to be aware of them. This awareness can then protect you from the negative consequences of impulsive and irrational reactions to these emotions. 1: Optimism, thrill and euphoria Investors all start with optimism. We commonly expect things to go our way, or we tend to expect a return for the risk of investing. As expectations are met, it is common to get excited about the possibility of even greater returns and the excitement becomes thrilling as the returns exceed expectations. At the top of the cycle is when investors experience euphoria. But it is here where investors are at the point of maximum financial risk. When we believe everything we touch turns to gold , we fool ourselves into believing we can beat the market, we cannot make mistakes, that excessive returns are commonplace and that we can tolerate higher levels of risk. 2: Complacency, denial, hope The second phase of the cycle occurs when the market stops meeting our new lofty expectations and begins to turn. At first, we anxiously watch the market for any signs of direction. Anxiety turns to denial and then quickly to fear, as the value of the investments decline. Many people will then start to act defensively and may think about switching out of riskier assets to more defensive shares or other asset classes such as bonds. 3: Panic, capitulation, despondency In the third phase of the cycle, the realities of a bear market come to the fore and an investor may become desperate. Many panic and withdraw from the market altogether – afraid of further losses. Those who persevere become despondent and wonder whether the markets are ever going to recover and whether they should be there at all. Ironically, at these times, an investor will commonly fail to recognize they are actually at the point of maximum financial opportunity. 4: Skepticism, caution, worry In the fourth stage of the cycle, investors may experience some skepticism when markets start to rise. They often have a sense of caution or worry, wondering if market growth will last.—and may be reluctant to invest money in the market at a point when prices are still relatively low and opportunities are attractive. What are the consequences of this emotional roller-coaster?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Kolin-Lukas
GOLD TO 2000.00 (PROBABILITY RATE 85%)GOLD'S RECENT CLOSING PRICE SIGNIFIES A BUYING PRESSURE IN THE MARKET WHICH MAY CAUSE THE PRICE OF THE COMMODITY TO RISE TO IT PREVIOUS SIGNIFICANT HIGHS 2000.00 CLOSING PRICE 1930.00 AREA, TENDS TO TAKE OUT RECENT SIGNIFICANT HIGH 1913.00 AREA CAUSING A CHANGE IN MARKET STRUCTURE. THE CURRENT CLOSING PRICE ALSO SHOWS A BREAK OUT OF A TREND ON THE DAILIES CHART REPRESENTATION. WE MAY SEE A PULLBACK AS IT OFTEN PLAYS OUT AFTER A STRONG PUSH BUT THE POTENTIAL DIRECTION PER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS BULLISH. FIND A GOOD ENTRY POINT!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn4475781
1
GOLD COULD BE IN A RANGE THIS WEEKHere is a trading idea of XAUUSD. the range is drawn in the form of a triangle. if this range is held. you will need to use a trailing stop if you take on a long position in gold because in a ranging market OF COURSE prices are not trending. the SL entry and tp targets are set. If you find my post helpful. please follow me here. I plan to post more ideas. My trading style is elliot wave influenced. As for the range for gold. i am expecting a long term up move. the red lined are last months high and low and ironically the upper red line is sitting at the previous all time high in 2011. if gold bounces off that area. we make see more uptrend movement. Thank you for reviewing my trade idea. please follow.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Investatrade-Charts
Stock Market Analysis - 4/23/2020 - $SPY $QQQ $IWM $VIXThe last two days of action in the indexes have definitely brought us, once again, to an important crossroads. Yesterday's bearish action broke down the short term uptrend on all major indexes meaning we are now in neutral territory on the short term trend. Now is the time for caution and to see what direction the markets are headed next. After rolling over on Tuesday, SPY held support a 272 but held below the Anchored VWAP from the gap up two weeks ago that started this recent uptrend. Today's sharp retracement landed just below the falling 5DMA. We also broke that rising wedge pattern I pointed out on Monday. There are definitely signs that SPY is in trouble, but it is not yet clear if we are starting a new downtrend, or just relaxing in the intermediate uptrend. If we break down 272, this is will trigger a confirmed short term downtrend and I will get short some stocks and possibly long VXX. For a bullish case, I would want to see SPY retest the highs, pullback, then take off above the highs at 285. QQQ broke down the rising wedge pattern from Monday but rejected the Anchored VWAP from the gap up. The current sharp retracement is just under a flat 5DMA. More information is needed to see where QQQ is going although it does seem it's just relaxing in the current intermediate uptrend. Remember, QQQ has not had a real pullback since bouncing from the lows up 30%. If QQQ breaks below 203, this will trigger a confirmed short term downtrend, although be careful of nearby support at the 200. IWM looks like it is consolidating in a wedge pattern here and is current whipsawing the 5DMA. We shall see what direction IWM wants to go in the near term. VIX had a nice little spike on Tuesday but ended up fading throughout the day today. The short and intermediate term trend has terminated with a rising 5DMA and flat 20DMA. Again, we shall see where VIX is headed from here. Overall, if you currently are long, now is the time to tighten up stop losses. In case markets breakdown, you should be protecting those gains. I would not take any new long trades here until markets start to look productive above a rising 5DMA. Now is also a time to look for short ideas to take advantage of a short term downtrend.
AMEX:SPY
by Trader_Kaji
Stock Market Analysis - 4/20/2020 - $SPY $QQQ $IWM $VIXBefore starting off this stock market analysis, I highly recommend listening a new podcast by Tom Canfield (@Canny4) and Joe Fahmy (@jfahmy) called The Market Rant. Very raw and informative. You'll definitely find some value in this podcast. www.youtube.com Since the last stock market analysis, I had thought markets were starting to rollover and the uptrend was waning. However, on Thursday after the close, we got news about the initial success in Gilead's remdesivir medication for treating COVID-19 and Trump's announcement about opening America. This caused markets to gap up on Friday above the prior highs and continued this uptrend. Markets are looking strong and I am sure there are a lot of people frustrated at this price action. If you are one of those people who think markets have gone up too far too fast, take a step back. As a Trader, is it not your job to predict what will happen in the future. That is called gambling. Your job is to follow price action to determine what is most likely to happen in the future. Thinking that markets have to go lower because this virus is going to get worst and the economy is going to collapse due to horrid unemployment numbers is nonsense. It sounds terrible, however the reality is that markets continue to uptrend despite these prospects. Sure, I personally think that this bounce is very overextended, however I continue to stay long my stocks because I am following the price action rather than my personal views. My tip for today is to stay objective and remember that anything can happen in the markets. First, looking at the SPY, we continue to trend higher with a close on Friday above the 50DMA. I expect this area to be a strong level of resistance therefore, unless we gap up on Monday, I could foresee some sideways chop to occur here. If we continue to trend higher, the next resistance will be 300 at the 200DMA. There is also a rising wedge forming which is a bearish pattern. QQQ continues to be the strongest of the bunch as it has successfully reclaimed all major moving averages. The rise in QQQ has been quite steep and the rising wedge pattern forming is tightening quite a bit. QQQ is currently hitting resistance therefore price could find some trouble here. IWM has not participated much in this current uptrend. Although we had an impressive gap up on Friday, IWM is still below the prior highs from last week. There is resistance at 125 therefore, like all the other indexes, IWM could find trouble here. VIX continues to downtrend in a pretty obvious downward channel.
AMEX:SPY
by Trader_Kaji
Stock Market Analysis - Uptrends in Trouble - $SPY $IWM $QQQThe last 3 trading days since the last analysis, we have seen more of the same bullish action. Many stocks, especially the NASDAQs, techs, and biotechs, were breaking out and running wild. I was able to catch some of the action with a DOCU long last week. However, there are some red flags popping up that could indicate that the uptrend is now terminating. Starting out with SPY, since April 3rd, we have seen nice bullish action with higher highs and higher lows. Price was above the rising 5DMA (Green line) which is an excellent indicator of the short term trend. This was a time to get long in swing trades. Recently this pattern of higher highs and higher lows has been waning as SPY looks like it is about to rollover. The 5DMA has flatten out and price is now sitting right at this level. If SPY trades below 275 tomorrow, it is time to take profits on long trades and look to see where the markets are headed next. This is not an indication it is time to switch to the short side, this lower low just means it is time to be cautious about taking new trades. During this market bounce, QQQ has been outperforming all other indexes by far and this action was reflected in the overall strength of the tech and biotech stocks. I am sure you noticed major strength in names like AMZN, MSFT, and NFLX for example. QQQ is currently uptrending and trading above all major moving averages. QQQ's uptrend continues to be healthy, however bearish action in the other indexes could start to weight QQQ down in the future. Despite the caution, strong action in techs and biotechs is good news for overall market strength. IWM has always been the laggard index since the drop in February and continues to be so today. IWM has officially broken it's uptrend and it looks ugly. Price is now below the flattening 5DMA and I would not want to be long IWM right now. Whether this is an indication of future weakness in the overall market is yet to be seen. 112 is a level of potential support for IWM. Fundamentally, it makes sense for IWM to be the laggard as Small Cap companies are feeling the biggest hurt from COVID-19 and the economic shut down. Despite the large gap up in VIX today, the downtrend in VIX is still valid. VIX is now trading right at the 5DMA and there is potential resistance at 45. Right now is a time for caution. Although the bullish action and fading volatility has been a breath of fresh air, do not get complacent. We are still below a falling 200DMA which tells us the longer term market environment is still overall bearish. This is still considered a bounce from the lows and it is very extended. Thinking this is just another buy the dip event like December 2018 is a quick path to an account blowout. Buying the dip works great until it doesn't, at that point it becomes disastrous. Remember, when it comes to trading and market success, risk management is key. Control risk and practice proper risk management especially during uncertain times like these.
AMEX:SPY
by Trader_Kaji
Stock Market Analysis - $SPY $QQQ $IWM $VIX - 4/13/2020Every few days I make it a habit to post my thought of the market conditions and my thought process as a swing trader. The point of this analysis is when I am analyzing my performance, I can look back to see what I was thinking and what kind of improvements should be made to my analysis. So far it has been extremely beneficial to write down my thought and publishing it on Tradingview forces me to care about the quality of each post. I highly recommend it even thought you may not be confident about your own analysis skills. Posting your thought is mostly for you as a journal - you could also make it a private post. This past short trading week we had a very bullish continuation in this bounce. We managed to trend higher with a bullish short and intermediate term trend. Looking at SPY on the 65m chart, we are in a clear uptrend with a rising 5DMA and 20DMA. Both these moving averages indicate the direction of the short term and intermediate term trend respectively. We are still below a falling 50DMA therefore the overall longer trend is still bearish and I expect this area to become a level of resistance in the future. Last week I called out 260s as a level to watch and we clearly broke above and held this important resistance. I ended up going long ZS, DOCU, and AHPI last week due to this continuation move. Although the action is clearly bullish, I would be wary about how much further this can go. Right now, we are in a very extended bounce therefore although I am overall long, I am still taking smaller bites that usual in case this trend runs out of juice abruptly. QQQ is currently hitting the all important 200DMA here. Like SPY, QQQ has been in a pretty extended bounce and I would not be surprised if QQQ starts to come back down from here. Picture has improved on the weakest index IWM. IWM is currently up 29.5% off the lows, an already impressive bounce. Next important resistance to watch is 125s. VIX continues to downtrend in a clear down sloping channel. This is continued action from last week. Overall, long side trades should be taken but I would be careful chasing into this extended bounce. We are still long term bearish therefore start with small bites. I would want to see some kind of intermediate term pullback before we breakout again for some bullish action. Furthermore, the past few up days have been on relatively low volume. Bottoms are always marked by multiple high volume followthrough days which we have not seem much of yet.
AMEX:SPY
by Trader_Kaji
Stock Market Analysis - 4/6/2020During the writing of this analysis, S&P futures are currently up 3.45%. We shall see where this potential gap up in the markets will take us tomorrow. In terms of fundamentals, nothing much as changed. I think markets are still trying to digest the effects of the stimulus and how the virus will impact the economy in the long term. First lets look at SPY which is currently in a small range on the 30m timeframe. Friday I thought markets would breakdown however SPY was resilient throughout the day. With the potential gap up in mind on Monday, the key area to watch is the 20DMA at 253. If we can reject this MA, expect continued weakness. Otherwise if we break above, this is not a buy signal. The 20DMA is still falling and instead the short term trend is neutral. In order for a bullish case, I want to see the 20DMA rising as well as higher high and higher lows. Like SPY, QQQ also rejected the 20DMA and looks like a Descending Triangle is forming on the 30m timeframe. IWM is looking very interesting here for a bullish case. IWM has been the laggard during last weeks weakness but is forming a clear falling wedge on the 30m timeframe. Since a gap up is expected, IWM looks good till 109 where there is potential resistance at the 5DMA. VIX looks like it's now in a clear downtrend. Despite the weakness last week, VIX continues to fade.
AMEX:SPY
by Trader_Kaji