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Stock Market Analysis - 3/30/2020Another action packed week in the books. The USA topped the leaderboard with the most cases on Friday and a 2$ trillion stimulus package has been approved by congress. This week we had a sharp retracement from the lows with a nearly 18% bounce from the lows to the highs, the sharpest in fact since 1933. It seems as though the things are looking hopefully and we should all just buy this dip... right? To be blunt, I have no idea where this market is heading at the moment, however I can tell you for sure we are at an important inflection point and caution should be taken. For context, the recent decline since February has been the steepest in history, quite literally. We went from highs to down 35% in just 23 trading days. In comparison, a 35% drop during the Financial Crisis took nearly 5 months. Now that been said, what do you think follows the steepest decline in history? Well, just like Newton's Third Law of Motion, we would expect an equally impressive bounce; and this is exactly the price action we saw. However this is just that, a bounce; this does not mean the bear market is done. We could easily come back to the lows and continue the longer term downtrend. This is why we are at an important inflection point. First lets look at SPY. Friday, following a gap down, SPY trended back up to resistance at 260 and rejected it was a big selloff in the last hour of trading. Notice price also rejected the top of the HVN. The short term uptrend seems to be terminated which would make sense after such an extended and steep bounce. For a bullish case, I would want to see SPY retest and reject the 248 area where support and the 5DMA align. 260 is definitely the area to watch for a breakout. If SPY looks like it's about to break above this important resistance, I plan to start loading up on longs. Otherwise, we may either trend sideways or retest lows. Next, QQQ is looking seriously weak. QQQ underperformed compared to the other indexes and the "bounce" does not seem like much on the 30m timeframe. QQQ is currently rejecting the falling 20DMA which is not a good sign for a bullish case. QQQ looks like it's heading back to the 5DMA for a retest similar to SPY. The 20DMA is the area to watch for a breakout for a bullish case. Despite the big bounce in the indexes, we have not seen VIX fall off a cliff yet as we would expect. This might be a signal that the bloodbath is not over yet. VIX is currently trading sideways and consolidating right under the 20DMA. It seems a breakout might be imminent. Overall, despite all the good news and bullish price action lately, I would not start getting long here. We are in an overextended bounce and the short term and intermediate term trend is neutral. However watch the price action closely this week as we will definitely get some clues as to where this market is going.
AMEX:SPY
by Trader_Kaji
5
Stock Market Analysis - 3/25/2020 - $SPY $DIA $QQQ $VIXIt seems like the overall market outlook has changed and for the better. With a looming $2 trillion stimulus on the horizon, markets have broke the intermediate trend and looks to be in a stage of recovery. Since my last analysis, I expected markets to start to consolidate at this level and this looks to be the case. Although the downtrend has terminated, this does not mean a uptrend has started. The intermediate trend is now neutral and we need to start looking for clues (higher lows and higher highs) that could initiate a new uptrend. Fundamentally, we still do not know what toll this virus will put on the economy. This will become more clear as unemployment, consumer sentiment, and industrial numbers for the quarter are released in the near future. First, lets look at the SPY. Yesterday, SPY gapped up and broke above the downsloping trendline and closed at HOD - a good sign for a followthrough day. Today we got a somewhat flaky followthrough day as we closed at the middle on the range following a large selloff at the end of the day. The intermediate term trend is currently neutral. For a bullish case, I would like to see SPY test the 235-238 area where the 5DMA and Anchored VWAP from the lows align. Otherwise we could easily a retest of lows. I won't go too in depth with QQQ and DIA today as they all look very similar to the action on SPY; however it is important to note today's changes in each index. QQQ closed red at -0.74%, DIA closed green at +2.54%. Notice the relative strength in DIA and relative weakness in QQQ. During Bear markets, it is common to see rotation out of previous leading sectors such as Technology (QQQ) and into utilities and industrials (DIA). A quick google search about Sector Rotation can better explain this phenomena. This type of price action are clear indicators we are in a bear market and until we see rotation back into leading sectors such as technology, this bear market will continue to persist. The price action on VIX is quite telling for what the future could hold. Although we had a nice reaction bounce yesterday and today, VIX recovered it's initial gap down and closed green today. VIX looks like it is consolidating and could breakout tomorrow. I expect VIX to retest highs. Overall, the intermediate trend and the short term trend are both neutral and volatility is still high. These are not favorable conditions for the swing trader. Until we see trending conditions, now is not the time to put on new trades. Instead, as a swing trader you should use this time to start looking for new long or short ideas. When markets start to trend, you will be ready to take advantage of the new leg up or down.
AMEX:SPY
by Trader_Kaji
2
Stock Market Analysis - 3/18/2020The past few days since the last analysis I've made has been stunning and literally historic. As the coronavirus continues to threaten the American economy, POTUS and the Federal Reserve has made multiple attempts to shore up the economy is the face of a possible recession. The Federal Reserve for example has cut federal rates to nearly 0% as well as promised billions in money market purchases in order to keep interest rates low. POTUS has been focusing on emergency funding for small businesses, airlines, energy, and for the average American. All this "good" news and the stock market is still selling off! It seems nothing the feds and POTUS does will prevent the inevitable selloff. As a stock market participant, you should not be despairing. Regardless of the catalyst, bear markets are essential for a healthy market. The recent bull market has been running for the past 11 years while the average bull market duration is only 3-4 years. Bear markets allow a lot of the dirt (AKA bubbles) to clear out and for new major trends and stock market leaders to emerge. The most lucrative bull trends will arise after the dust of the bear market clears. Be patient and a lot of money can be made. SPY: SPY is in a clear downtrend with lower highs and lower lows. We are still below a declining 5DMA and the decline seems to be accelerating. A short term bounce seems imminent. SPY recent undercut the December 2018 lows but closed above it. I expect SPY to start relaxing and consolidating down here. However this is not to say the bottom is in as the downtrend is still valid. QQQ: We are seeing some major relative strength in QQQ as QQQ has not undercut the December 2018 lows as other indexes have. Like SPY, QQQ is still in a clear downtrend below a declining 5DMA. The downtrend seems orderly and has no signs of stopping yet. IWM: The weakness in IWM has been stellar as the downtrend continues. The downtrend has been very orderly but seems extended. A short term bounce or consolidation seems imminent. VIX: Although VIX continues to climb, the increase as of late has been slowing down. This is a very good sign as we may start to see "normal" volatility in the future. I believe when we start to see VIX and the market decline concurrently, we can start to look for a bottom. For now, VIX continues to be at 52 week highs and circuit breaker halts are the new normal everyday. Overall, now is not the time to put on new long or short positions. We are currently overextended on the bear side and the market is still in a clear downtrend on the bull side. The best course of action is to stay on the sidelines and watch. On a side note, Coronavirus related stocks such as GILD, APT, APHI, COST, WMT, CODX and more are exceptions to this rule. These stocks are likely to move regardless of market movement due to hype and speculation surrounding these stocks.
AMEX:SPY
by Trader_Kaji
Stock Market Analysis - 3/12/2020The markets continue to accelerate to the downside as volatility continues to run higher. As a swing trader, there are three things I am doing in order to protect capital. 1. Lower risk - If you are putting on trade at this time, do so with reduced risk. Reduce your risk more than usual to protect yourself from the unusually large price swings that are common place in the current market. 2. Follow the 5DMA intermediate trend - Last week Friday and this past Tuesday, the markets closed bullish hinting to a possible reversal. Although a reversal was possible, the markets were still below a declining 5DMA, meaning it is not yet bullish. If you follow the 5DMA, you could have avoided these two bull traps. Here is an example by Brian Shannon: twitter.com 3. Staying on the sidelines - Aside from small bites here and there, I am typically staying on the sidelines. There is no reason to attempt to catch a falling knife; doing so in this current market conditions will simply leave you frustrated and emotional. It is much easier to just wait until the current market volatility subsides and a real bullish trend emerges. The current market is for Day Traders. If you are day trading, you should be keeping risk small and avoiding overnight holds. If you do not have any day trading strategies or have not day traded before, you have no reason to do so now. Sleep in, wait on the side lines, and go have a beer. SPY: Price action seems to be accelerating to the downside hinting at a possible exhaustion move in the near future. We are in a clear downtrend and SPY closed LOD meaning we are likely to see more selling tomorrow.
AMEX:SPY
by Trader_Kaji
Stock Market Analysis - 3/10/2020The past 2 days of trading have been quite spectacular. We started Monday with a quick 7% limit down, recovered, trapped bulls, then collapsed again closing at the LOD. Monday's price action was fueled by continued Coronavirus fears over the weekend and collapses in world markets before the US open. Today we had the complete opposite price action and closed near HOD printing a Hammer on the Daily Chart. The end of day push today was fueled by possible payroll tax cuts and the Trump Administration's continued support of the US Stock Markets. Monday's price action showed us that although technical analysis is a good predictor of future price action, it cannot predict significant breaking news releases. The current market condition are unpredictable and volatile with lots of overhead news risk. The first thing I want to note on the Daily chart of SPY is the RSI divergence. Although SPY made new lows on Monday, RSI did not make a new low. This is the first evidence of a possible bottom. On the 30m timeframe, we managed to hold the 273.50 lows three times before breaking through resistance at 285 and the down sloping trendline on high volume. This was impressive price action for a bullish case however I would be careful. SPY is still below the 5DMA (Short term trend bearish) and there are some strong overhead resistance SPY still needs to get above to show strength. If SPY can break and hold above 294, I think this could be the start of a bullish trend.
AMEX:SPY
by Trader_Kaji
Stock Market Analysis - 3/6/2020As a background, I do this type of analysis daily to gauge sentiment in the market. The reason for this analysis is to be on the right side of the market whenever I put on new trades. Have you even tried to run with the wind behind your back? Going long a stock when the general market supports a bullish sentiment is what it means to trade with the wind behind your back. Generally, 80% of stocks follow the general market direction therefore, although that stock you've been watching has a beautiful breakout pattern, if the general market is breaking down, that breakout pattern will probably end up being a fake out. The markets this week have been a complete roller coaster. If you went long one day, you probably got stopped out the next day and vise versa. This is precisely what happened to me today as markets gapped down 3% today but closed strong and this is what occurs in high volatility market conditions. This type of price action is a day traders dream but a nightmare for swing traders like me. The best thing to do right now, if you are a swing trader, is simply not participate.
AMEX:SPY
by Trader_Kaji
Stock Market Analysis - 3/4/2020Yesterday's ugly selloff, following news of a big federal rate cut, was completely erased by today's solid gains and a followthrough day, but on lower volume. Although it is not yet entirely clear if this current selloff is over, today's price action showed some bullish signs that should have the average trader leaning towards the bull side. SPY on the 30m Timeframe is currently in an uptrend. Today we clearly held above the Anchored VWAP from Friday's lows (Cyan Line) and the 5DMA. These are all productive clues to raise a bullish case. Interestingly, we are currently right at the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the all time highs to Friday's lows. Tomorrow, if SPY cannot break today's highs and breaks below the up sloping trendline, the short term trend turns neutral which is a cause for caution. Currently, I am in small long positions as the short term price action looks bullish so far. We are now entering a critical moment in this bounce. All market bottoms end with at least one followthrough day and the most powerful followthrough days occur within Day 4 through 7 after the bottom was made. Tomorrow will be Day 4.
AMEX:SPY
by Trader_Kaji
Stock Market Analysis - 3/2/2020After Friday's gap down, reversal, and strong buying into the close, today we had the first followthrough day. A short term bottom looks confirmed as all indexes rallied higher into the close on strong volume. The picture on SPY is looking very bullish into the close. We held the Anchored VWAP from the December 2018 lows (Magenta Line) which has been acting as a key level of support during this entire bull run. SPY is currently sitting above the rising 200DMA meaning we are still within a bull market. The 20DMA and 50DMA seems to have flatlined therefore the intermediate trend is neutral and caution must be taken for a possible change in the longer term trend. The 30m timeframe is looking even more productive. Throughout the day, SPY had been struggling to breakthrough the 305.25 level where three lines of resistance (200DMA, 5DMA, and Anchored VWAP from start of selloff) were intersecting. In the last 30m candlestick, we blew through this level on strong volume and closed HOD. I would be careful buying into this bounce tomorrow however. The right time to buy was Friday or this morning and if markets gap up tomorrow, this scenario seems overextended. Volatility is currently at extremes therefore large swings, up or down, can occur at anytime. In the future I would want to see price retest the 305-306 area and then run higher with a V-shaped recovery to highs. If we start to chop sideways, I would expect more downside to be possible.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Trader_Kaji
Stock Market Analysis - 2/27/2020This is what real panic selling looks like. SPY just blew through all important Anchored VWAP and moving averages. SPY is clearly in a downtrend and I would not be a buyer anytime soon until the trend termination is confirmed. "A trend is innocent until proven guilty". Don't try to fight this trend or you will get burned. Of course we are getting to extremely oversold conditions and this selloff has expended too much energy to sustain this current trend. My plan is to not take any new positions and manage my current shorts by moving stop losses down as the trade works. Putting on new shorts or taking longs hoping to catch some meat off the bounce seems silly to me in terms of Risk vs Reward. Next important level to watch is 295. SPY is currently stuck in a HVN therefore a real flush in the morning would need to occur past 295 for continued, sustained selling. Otherwise if we gap up or stay flat, expect some consolidation within this HVN between 301-295.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Trader_Kaji
Market Analysis: Bearish outlook continues - 2/25/2020Today we saw continued weakness in SPY after yesterday's gap down and consolidation move. SPY closed today at Low of Day (LOD) meaning sellers are still in control coming into tomorrow. I believe more downside is still possible as the RSI on the Daily Timeframe is not yet oversold. I've noticed a lot of people attempting to look for bottoms this morning, however I would not be a buyer anytime soon nor would I be interested in catching the inevitable bounce. My plan is to let the market find the bottom, then get in when the dust settles. This means when the trend reverses with higher high/higher lows, a blow off bottom, or price holds above a rising 5DMA. These are all clues that a bottom has been made. I am current short this market. The current market is not in bear market territory yet therefore any short trades should be kept short-term with tight stops. I believe overall picture is still bullish above a rising 200DMA. The current dip has expended too much energy too fast and is looking similar to January 2018. I am expecting a bounce in the market this week where I plan to cover any remaining shorts.
AMEX:SPY
by Trader_Kaji
Global Market fundamental and technical analysisThe SPGI continues bounce on the 30 week moving average. Now the S&P 500 is doing well. There are many things covered by the media that are anomalies in life and not true reality for the world in the large scale. With the understanding of the big picture, the world is progressing forward with better policies and a reduction in conflict. Things will never be perfect but at this moment in time markets are rising . A lot of the smaller cap international stocks have pulled back from their initial rise with volume on the breakout the SPGI had in October 2019. The RSI seems to have momentum left in it, would be better if it was centered but it looks positive. This will eventually drop like it always does but right now I believe it will continue to go up along with the S&P 500.
NYSE:SPGILong
by eneakume
ETHUSD Retrace Before Breaking Resistance !?Hello Traders! Welcome to another update, This will be a quick one on ETHUSD, potential 10% trade setup! Points to consider, - Bullish on 240 timeframe - Price testing major resistance - Stochs showing downwards momentum - RSI reaching overbought territory - EMA’s holding price as support - Volume is picking up - Double bottom wicks (bulls strong in this area) ETHUSD has had a break from support testing lower regions around the $165 area, where bulls were then able to push price back into the now resistance zone. Bulls are currently being faced with this new resistance, where if it is able to break, then we could see a potential 10% trade! The indicators however do look quite bearish; the RSI is currently in overbought regions, with the Stochs showing downwards momentum. The EMA’s however is currently holding price as support but this is not enough to justify with a high degree of probability that we have further upside momentum. It would be healthy for the price to retrace back to the trend line from here, to allow the RSI and stochastics to cool down. This will allow the bulls to have greater momentum when breaking the next local resistance… What are your thoughts? Will ETHUSD retrace before breaking resistance? Please leave a like and comment, And remember, “A peak performance trader is totally committed to being the best and doing whatever it takes to be the best. He feels totally responsible for whatever happens and thus can learn from mistakes. These people typically have a working business plan for trading because they treat trading as a business.” – Van K. Tharp
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by The_Alchemist_Trader_
THE SHARP SILVER STILL STANDING STILL :} how?The finest industrial metal of the world refusing to give up its value on the daily chart. With the growing demands of material goods, made out of industries in this digital saga: It is used for jewellery and silver tableware, where appearance is important. Silver is used to make mirrors, as it is the best reflector of visible light known, although it does tarnish with time. It is also used in dental alloys, solder and brazing alloys, electrical contacts and batteries. Entry on every support terrain wont need vaccination later for this future gold class asset.
TVC:SILVERLong
by TheSouthernRock
An update to my weekly time frame (bounce off 13880 complete)Here is an update to my weekly chart. I haven't changed anything The price wicked off 13880 exactly as expected At this point I'm still expecting this rollover to take place into Sept. The 5,6 and 7 you see were drawn on the monthly and show up here on the weekly as well about where they should be. Disregard the yellow arrow you see in the bottom panel, it means nothing on this time frame. I drew in my own volume profile because I'm using the free version of Tradingview. The higher time frame Stochastics are opposing each other meaning, the weekly and daily are pointing down, while the monthly is pointing up. And the mid to lower TF's are on a hunt right now. The RSI is still very much in bullish control on the higher TF's We are seeing some divergences on the higher TF's I put a lot of emphasis on balance I did a not-so-great job of explaining that in my video. I will try to touch on it again to give a better understanding in my next video. There could be some wild wicks that don't fit in, but the price should return back to my rollover area. It's the monthly that I'm waiting for ultimately to create a bullish entry. As I mentioned, around September It's going to be a sideways moving market looks like for while, but there will be some short term opps in there I made a video on my youtube channel explaining things a little further: channel name "Kick Back Time" and I will make more as more establishment takes place Of course, this is not financial advice. Patrick @ Kick Back Time and I'll be kicking back time
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Kick_Back_Time
2
EURUSD WATCH THIS PAIR! EURUSD ANALYSIS So on the EURUSD we have had some interesting action happening in the past couple weeks. If you look on the weekly chart of this pair you will see we made a nice head and shoulders and about 2 weeks ago the right shoulder (where it is now) had breached to the downside and broke recent significant structure on the daily timeframe. What we saw last week was some decent strength from the buyers come in and pull price back and above that structure level of 1.15500 area. I didn't like how this looked so im posting this analysis because before that had happened I was on the short side bias for this pair, and I think it could still be a possibility of happening. BUT we need to see that seller interest come back in and play a role in this downside momentum. So lets break it down. 1D Chart: *on this timeframe you can see that price broke recent significant structure at 1.15500 level *did price hold? not very well. Due to this fact we want to just be watching this pair on the daily timeframe at this moment. *if you look at the daily chart you will see that ther IS descending trend line that has been holding since beginning of June *watch this pair once it comes into that descending trend line and if we start to see some signs of buyers dying out and strong sellers coming in, we may have some probability and sentiment to support a short on this pair *there is also significant structure at 1.17500, watch this level too in case EU tries a fakeout above the trendline 4H Chart: *on this chart it will give us a better idea of the momentum going on on the smaller scale *this chart still represents a good amount of data but gives us a little better look into the buyers and sellers strength *watch this chart for buyers to die out and strong seller strength to come in ALWAYS have a trading plan when approaching the markets. Stay disciplined to this plan and make sure to always use proper risk. Never risk more than 2% of trading capital per trade and make sure you have a back-tested systematic approach in which you apply to the markets. If you come un-prepared then the markets will own you. Cheers! Keep your eyes out !
Short
by JosePips
3
BTCUSD Momentum Flagging but unable to push lower for nowSorry if you're getting spammed for alerts. For some reason TradingView is not publishing my idea properly I've had to attempt a few times now. Based on RSI , market geometry and EW, I think this may be a probable path. The bear trend seems to have reached exhaustion and bulls are willing to buy below 6k but unwilling to chase the price up. We will encounter stiff resistance at the ichimoku cloud and 200 SMA (not shown on chart) as well as the upper trendline of the falling wedge . I have found a lot of confluence at the 5880 level as well as 4800 but it seems we are unable to push much lower than we are for now. We could very well go sideways for a few days before any substantial movement, but I think we need some fresh FOMO before we can make a new low. We could fall further than 5880 but in the immediate term it seems unlikely given the lack of momentum in either direction. The daily MACD histogram is slightly ticking up and RSI continues to show a slight uptrend. We are likely to overshoot the bottom trendline of the wedge when we get there sometime in a couple months. VPR shows 4800 as a strong level of support. If we shoot past and don't form a bull wick and see it quickly bought up it would be very bearish . We could spend months in that range. The indicator I'm using at the bottom is RSI candlesticks provided by my friend @cI8DH Check out his page and give him a like. RSI Candles Here is the bigger picture, I think there are a lot of confluences supporting this view
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by DennisLeeBTC
16