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Stock Market Analysis - 3/10/2020The past 2 days of trading have been quite spectacular. We started Monday with a quick 7% limit down, recovered, trapped bulls, then collapsed again closing at the LOD. Monday's price action was fueled by continued Coronavirus fears over the weekend and collapses in world markets before the US open. Today we had the complete opposite price action and closed near HOD printing a Hammer on the Daily Chart. The end of day push today was fueled by possible payroll tax cuts and the Trump Administration's continued support of the US Stock Markets. Monday's price action showed us that although technical analysis is a good predictor of future price action, it cannot predict significant breaking news releases. The current market condition are unpredictable and volatile with lots of overhead news risk. The first thing I want to note on the Daily chart of SPY is the RSI divergence. Although SPY made new lows on Monday, RSI did not make a new low. This is the first evidence of a possible bottom. On the 30m timeframe, we managed to hold the 273.50 lows three times before breaking through resistance at 285 and the down sloping trendline on high volume. This was impressive price action for a bullish case however I would be careful. SPY is still below the 5DMA (Short term trend bearish) and there are some strong overhead resistance SPY still needs to get above to show strength. If SPY can break and hold above 294, I think this could be the start of a bullish trend.
AMEX:SPY
by Trader_Kaji
Stock Market Analysis - 3/6/2020As a background, I do this type of analysis daily to gauge sentiment in the market. The reason for this analysis is to be on the right side of the market whenever I put on new trades. Have you even tried to run with the wind behind your back? Going long a stock when the general market supports a bullish sentiment is what it means to trade with the wind behind your back. Generally, 80% of stocks follow the general market direction therefore, although that stock you've been watching has a beautiful breakout pattern, if the general market is breaking down, that breakout pattern will probably end up being a fake out. The markets this week have been a complete roller coaster. If you went long one day, you probably got stopped out the next day and vise versa. This is precisely what happened to me today as markets gapped down 3% today but closed strong and this is what occurs in high volatility market conditions. This type of price action is a day traders dream but a nightmare for swing traders like me. The best thing to do right now, if you are a swing trader, is simply not participate.
AMEX:SPY
by Trader_Kaji
Stock Market Analysis - 3/4/2020Yesterday's ugly selloff, following news of a big federal rate cut, was completely erased by today's solid gains and a followthrough day, but on lower volume. Although it is not yet entirely clear if this current selloff is over, today's price action showed some bullish signs that should have the average trader leaning towards the bull side. SPY on the 30m Timeframe is currently in an uptrend. Today we clearly held above the Anchored VWAP from Friday's lows (Cyan Line) and the 5DMA. These are all productive clues to raise a bullish case. Interestingly, we are currently right at the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the all time highs to Friday's lows. Tomorrow, if SPY cannot break today's highs and breaks below the up sloping trendline, the short term trend turns neutral which is a cause for caution. Currently, I am in small long positions as the short term price action looks bullish so far. We are now entering a critical moment in this bounce. All market bottoms end with at least one followthrough day and the most powerful followthrough days occur within Day 4 through 7 after the bottom was made. Tomorrow will be Day 4.
AMEX:SPY
by Trader_Kaji
Stock Market Analysis - 3/2/2020After Friday's gap down, reversal, and strong buying into the close, today we had the first followthrough day. A short term bottom looks confirmed as all indexes rallied higher into the close on strong volume. The picture on SPY is looking very bullish into the close. We held the Anchored VWAP from the December 2018 lows (Magenta Line) which has been acting as a key level of support during this entire bull run. SPY is currently sitting above the rising 200DMA meaning we are still within a bull market. The 20DMA and 50DMA seems to have flatlined therefore the intermediate trend is neutral and caution must be taken for a possible change in the longer term trend. The 30m timeframe is looking even more productive. Throughout the day, SPY had been struggling to breakthrough the 305.25 level where three lines of resistance (200DMA, 5DMA, and Anchored VWAP from start of selloff) were intersecting. In the last 30m candlestick, we blew through this level on strong volume and closed HOD. I would be careful buying into this bounce tomorrow however. The right time to buy was Friday or this morning and if markets gap up tomorrow, this scenario seems overextended. Volatility is currently at extremes therefore large swings, up or down, can occur at anytime. In the future I would want to see price retest the 305-306 area and then run higher with a V-shaped recovery to highs. If we start to chop sideways, I would expect more downside to be possible.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Trader_Kaji
Stock Market Analysis - 2/27/2020This is what real panic selling looks like. SPY just blew through all important Anchored VWAP and moving averages. SPY is clearly in a downtrend and I would not be a buyer anytime soon until the trend termination is confirmed. "A trend is innocent until proven guilty". Don't try to fight this trend or you will get burned. Of course we are getting to extremely oversold conditions and this selloff has expended too much energy to sustain this current trend. My plan is to not take any new positions and manage my current shorts by moving stop losses down as the trade works. Putting on new shorts or taking longs hoping to catch some meat off the bounce seems silly to me in terms of Risk vs Reward. Next important level to watch is 295. SPY is currently stuck in a HVN therefore a real flush in the morning would need to occur past 295 for continued, sustained selling. Otherwise if we gap up or stay flat, expect some consolidation within this HVN between 301-295.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Trader_Kaji
Market Analysis: Bearish outlook continues - 2/25/2020Today we saw continued weakness in SPY after yesterday's gap down and consolidation move. SPY closed today at Low of Day (LOD) meaning sellers are still in control coming into tomorrow. I believe more downside is still possible as the RSI on the Daily Timeframe is not yet oversold. I've noticed a lot of people attempting to look for bottoms this morning, however I would not be a buyer anytime soon nor would I be interested in catching the inevitable bounce. My plan is to let the market find the bottom, then get in when the dust settles. This means when the trend reverses with higher high/higher lows, a blow off bottom, or price holds above a rising 5DMA. These are all clues that a bottom has been made. I am current short this market. The current market is not in bear market territory yet therefore any short trades should be kept short-term with tight stops. I believe overall picture is still bullish above a rising 200DMA. The current dip has expended too much energy too fast and is looking similar to January 2018. I am expecting a bounce in the market this week where I plan to cover any remaining shorts.
AMEX:SPY
by Trader_Kaji
Global Market fundamental and technical analysisThe SPGI continues bounce on the 30 week moving average. Now the S&P 500 is doing well. There are many things covered by the media that are anomalies in life and not true reality for the world in the large scale. With the understanding of the big picture, the world is progressing forward with better policies and a reduction in conflict. Things will never be perfect but at this moment in time markets are rising . A lot of the smaller cap international stocks have pulled back from their initial rise with volume on the breakout the SPGI had in October 2019. The RSI seems to have momentum left in it, would be better if it was centered but it looks positive. This will eventually drop like it always does but right now I believe it will continue to go up along with the S&P 500.
NYSE:SPGILong
by eneakume
ETHUSD Retrace Before Breaking Resistance !?Hello Traders! Welcome to another update, This will be a quick one on ETHUSD, potential 10% trade setup! Points to consider, - Bullish on 240 timeframe - Price testing major resistance - Stochs showing downwards momentum - RSI reaching overbought territory - EMA’s holding price as support - Volume is picking up - Double bottom wicks (bulls strong in this area) ETHUSD has had a break from support testing lower regions around the $165 area, where bulls were then able to push price back into the now resistance zone. Bulls are currently being faced with this new resistance, where if it is able to break, then we could see a potential 10% trade! The indicators however do look quite bearish; the RSI is currently in overbought regions, with the Stochs showing downwards momentum. The EMA’s however is currently holding price as support but this is not enough to justify with a high degree of probability that we have further upside momentum. It would be healthy for the price to retrace back to the trend line from here, to allow the RSI and stochastics to cool down. This will allow the bulls to have greater momentum when breaking the next local resistance… What are your thoughts? Will ETHUSD retrace before breaking resistance? Please leave a like and comment, And remember, “A peak performance trader is totally committed to being the best and doing whatever it takes to be the best. He feels totally responsible for whatever happens and thus can learn from mistakes. These people typically have a working business plan for trading because they treat trading as a business.” – Van K. Tharp
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by AzizKhanZamani
THE SHARP SILVER STILL STANDING STILL :} how?The finest industrial metal of the world refusing to give up its value on the daily chart. With the growing demands of material goods, made out of industries in this digital saga: It is used for jewellery and silver tableware, where appearance is important. Silver is used to make mirrors, as it is the best reflector of visible light known, although it does tarnish with time. It is also used in dental alloys, solder and brazing alloys, electrical contacts and batteries. Entry on every support terrain wont need vaccination later for this future gold class asset.
TVC:SILVERLong
by TheSouthernRock
An update to my weekly time frame (bounce off 13880 complete)Here is an update to my weekly chart. I haven't changed anything The price wicked off 13880 exactly as expected At this point I'm still expecting this rollover to take place into Sept. The 5,6 and 7 you see were drawn on the monthly and show up here on the weekly as well about where they should be. Disregard the yellow arrow you see in the bottom panel, it means nothing on this time frame. I drew in my own volume profile because I'm using the free version of Tradingview. The higher time frame Stochastics are opposing each other meaning, the weekly and daily are pointing down, while the monthly is pointing up. And the mid to lower TF's are on a hunt right now. The RSI is still very much in bullish control on the higher TF's We are seeing some divergences on the higher TF's I put a lot of emphasis on balance I did a not-so-great job of explaining that in my video. I will try to touch on it again to give a better understanding in my next video. There could be some wild wicks that don't fit in, but the price should return back to my rollover area. It's the monthly that I'm waiting for ultimately to create a bullish entry. As I mentioned, around September It's going to be a sideways moving market looks like for while, but there will be some short term opps in there I made a video on my youtube channel explaining things a little further: channel name "Kick Back Time" and I will make more as more establishment takes place Of course, this is not financial advice. Patrick @ Kick Back Time and I'll be kicking back time
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Kick_Back_Time
2
EURUSD WATCH THIS PAIR! EURUSD ANALYSIS So on the EURUSD we have had some interesting action happening in the past couple weeks. If you look on the weekly chart of this pair you will see we made a nice head and shoulders and about 2 weeks ago the right shoulder (where it is now) had breached to the downside and broke recent significant structure on the daily timeframe. What we saw last week was some decent strength from the buyers come in and pull price back and above that structure level of 1.15500 area. I didn't like how this looked so im posting this analysis because before that had happened I was on the short side bias for this pair, and I think it could still be a possibility of happening. BUT we need to see that seller interest come back in and play a role in this downside momentum. So lets break it down. 1D Chart: *on this timeframe you can see that price broke recent significant structure at 1.15500 level *did price hold? not very well. Due to this fact we want to just be watching this pair on the daily timeframe at this moment. *if you look at the daily chart you will see that ther IS descending trend line that has been holding since beginning of June *watch this pair once it comes into that descending trend line and if we start to see some signs of buyers dying out and strong sellers coming in, we may have some probability and sentiment to support a short on this pair *there is also significant structure at 1.17500, watch this level too in case EU tries a fakeout above the trendline 4H Chart: *on this chart it will give us a better idea of the momentum going on on the smaller scale *this chart still represents a good amount of data but gives us a little better look into the buyers and sellers strength *watch this chart for buyers to die out and strong seller strength to come in ALWAYS have a trading plan when approaching the markets. Stay disciplined to this plan and make sure to always use proper risk. Never risk more than 2% of trading capital per trade and make sure you have a back-tested systematic approach in which you apply to the markets. If you come un-prepared then the markets will own you. Cheers! Keep your eyes out !
Short
by JosePips
3
BTCUSD Momentum Flagging but unable to push lower for nowSorry if you're getting spammed for alerts. For some reason TradingView is not publishing my idea properly I've had to attempt a few times now. Based on RSI , market geometry and EW, I think this may be a probable path. The bear trend seems to have reached exhaustion and bulls are willing to buy below 6k but unwilling to chase the price up. We will encounter stiff resistance at the ichimoku cloud and 200 SMA (not shown on chart) as well as the upper trendline of the falling wedge . I have found a lot of confluence at the 5880 level as well as 4800 but it seems we are unable to push much lower than we are for now. We could very well go sideways for a few days before any substantial movement, but I think we need some fresh FOMO before we can make a new low. We could fall further than 5880 but in the immediate term it seems unlikely given the lack of momentum in either direction. The daily MACD histogram is slightly ticking up and RSI continues to show a slight uptrend. We are likely to overshoot the bottom trendline of the wedge when we get there sometime in a couple months. VPR shows 4800 as a strong level of support. If we shoot past and don't form a bull wick and see it quickly bought up it would be very bearish . We could spend months in that range. The indicator I'm using at the bottom is RSI candlesticks provided by my friend @cI8DH Check out his page and give him a like. RSI Candles Here is the bigger picture, I think there are a lot of confluences supporting this view
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by DennisLeeBTC
16
BCHUSDBITSTAMP:BCHUSD started a very good bullish run in the past 14 days. If you look at the daily chart you see that the price reached resistance at 1500.00 and was rejected. We can see the yellow zone, lower point was resistance BITSTAMP:BCHUSD pushed through and will now act as a support at 1175.00 level. The price correction is in play for 2 days already. I think support at 1175.00 level will be strong enough to hold the price up. The whole market seems to be bullish and I think that it shows the real strength of bulls. Based on past days market signals, I think we should expect for further upward movement to 2000.00 level after this minor correction and if the market stays bullish. Other option is that the BITSTAMP:BCHUSD support will not uphold the movement. If this happens, the price could drop at lower level. I think to at least 920.00 level. And from there on we will see new up movement. If 920.00 support can’t hold the market, the price could go even lower. Remember always tend to buy on supports and sell at resistances! Please share your thoughts or tap like button if you like my idea!
BITSTAMP:BCHUSDLong
by iglanbo1899
4
Bitcoin Market Outlookhello traders well bitcoin finally had a week with some sign of the bulls returning from christmas and new years holidays. we just tested a previous resistance at the 17000 mark. We will probably see a shallow pullback but i don't expect it to go lower than 15500-16000. remember these pullbacks are essential to the long term health and growth of this market. for the coming weeks ill be paying attention solely to the volume that is coming into bitcoin. Hopefully we can start getting new institutional money pumped into the market as the new calendar year has gotten into full swing. if that plays out we should see bitcoin get back to 20000 and probably to the 25000 psychological resistance. All in all everything is looking juicy and appears to be getting primed for historic run. 2018 should be an epic year for bitcoin and crypto in general. ill be touching base here and there. till then good luck to all.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by LadenStanford