U.S. Stocks final peakThe graph presented analyses SPX, IXIC and IWM; by valuing them against bonds adjusted dollar and gold. For explanation refer to the graph tagged.
Thanks!
Market
U.S. National Debt U.S. default
A topic that has been stirring people's minds in recent months is the U.S. debt ceiling. The general public is asking the question:
"Will the national debt ceiling be raised or will the U.S. default?"
The national debt is the result of the government's financial borrowing to cover the budget deficit. And, as you might have guessed, these borrowings must be paid for.
For the last ~100 years, the U.S. has existed on borrowed capital by placing Treasury bonds. And there is a purely nominal borrowing limit, which in fact America has raised 45 times in the last 40 years so that it can borrow more and more and more. And if they don't, the Treasury will no longer be able to issue debt securities and will only have to cover their expenses with cash balances from their balance sheet.
Spoiler: no money to pay off your own debt
💡Logical conclusion.
The national debt ceiling will be raised anyway, and all the current discussions have only political overtones and have nothing to do with the real economic model of the states. Consequently, no teeth-grinding default and collapse of the global financial system should be expected
How will the increase in state debt affect the cryptocurrency market?
-If you're interested, put +
www.usdebtclock.org
Best regards EXCAVO
🔥 CAKE = 💀Last month I made an analysis on CAKE and the fact that it was selling off severely. My 2.50 support was the last hope for the bulls, which inevitably failed.
Fast forward to today, and we're trading at 1.50, a truly abysmal feat. Short-sellers are happy, stakers and investors are either exiting in droves or seeing their funds evaporate.
I think that there's little hope for CAKE to ever recover from this. Unless they make some drastic changes to the tokenomics of this token, I don't see it ever taking off again. Keep in mind that this is normal for a lot of tokens. The good ones survive the bear market, the bad ones die.
We might see some kind of pump occurring over the next year, but I'd be surprised if this token will go above 3.00 ever again.
Basic Understanding of Market StructureWelcome to the Game Of Resilience .. Structure is the King structure tells everything that you can go for buy or sell trades . sometimes structure will confuse you too so understanding the structure is some what tricky point all over the internet because everyone have a different perspective so coming to the point just this post is to understand the basics of what is market structure and what strong highs and low .
NVIDIA Core Wave MetricsRelationship between ATH, Local bottom and first pullback in fibonacci ratio lines. Testing Buying Pressure / Selling Pressure volatility based indicator of measuring relationship between metrics of green and red candles separately. That's why there is 1 dashed line to indicate when they balance. Red line is SP / BP to see ongoing change in sellers' aspect.
Left part of the chart:
Bitcoin AnalyzerTradingView has excellent tools and scripts to monitor any market. Here some to track the move of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Bearish for rest of year. Buy in DecemberAs much as I love BTC for a insurance policy against government debt, it is still subject to human nature. Fear and Greed. And with proxy exposure to the function of all financial markets, liquidity. I want to believe that we have seen the worst that is to come for now but at this point it feels like sticking my head in the sand.
How can we not see a correction in the markets that is one for the history books after the swings we have experienced over the last few years? Or was there just SO much liquidity in the system at basically 0% interest rates for a decade that even after an increase of FED fund rates (10 fold of anything we have seen, ever) we have just made up for lost time and its now time to carry on as per schedule.
The trade:
- Short any pops (ie retest of trendline) until later this year
-All in again in Nov 2023 to Feb 2024 (debt crises should have sorted itself out by then)
ACA/USDT 1D. Fall out of channel. Manipulation.Here's coin in DOT ecosystem - Acala network.
Though it has problems with its stable coin etc. there's space for earning money. Here's how.
There was an accumulation channel(logic of the current movements). In it the volume was accumulated.
Now there;s a break down of this channel. Price is dumping. The meaning of it - is how i've already described - collection of stop losses.
From the support price has now dropped 37% down. We've come to the first support and potential reversal zone 0.545$. Yellow level.
The second one is on the chart.
When dropping out of that horizontal channel we had - the downtrend channel started to form, this is when we speak about technical side of this potential manipulation.
Now as you can notice on the chart - the price is on the support of this downtrend channel.
Hence we can at least work locally from the support considering potential bounce of the price.
The market will begin recovering soonThe market is still in a bearish trend. However, the BEAR cycle will soon be over. Keep an eye on the 1000x indicator. Wait for the green zone to go long with your fav coins and tokens!
LTC & ADA Will Crash 90% – Bear Market Has Not Even Begun Yet!The bear market has not even begun yet for 99% of altcoins, such as Litecoin (LTC) and Cardano (ADA).
I expect these coins to crash at least another 90% from where they currently are.
I agree with people such as Big Cheds, Bob Loukas, Benjamin Cowen, and others that altcoins are far from having bottomed and in fact that the bear market has not even begun yet.
Anyone using leverage of 1.01x or higher and who is long will surely get liquidated within the next 1-3 months.
Bitcoin will crash to sub $10k as well.
EURNZD - Video Top-Down Analysis!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
Here is a detailed update top-down analysis for EURNZD .
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? and Why?
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good Luck!.
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
USDCHF to find sellers at market?USDCHF - 24h expiry
Daily signals are bearish.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
20 1day EMA is at 0.8982.
0.8996 has been pivotal.
We look for a temporary move higher.
We look to Sell at 0.8989 (stop at 0.9019)
Our profit targets will be 0.8919 and 0.8909
Resistance: 0.8960 / 0.8976 / 0.8995
Support: 0.8930 / 0.8910 / 0.8900
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
BTC - Ready Steady Shoot 🎯Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
As per my last analysis, we know that BTC rejected 30,000 resistance and now trading lower for a bearish correction.
Now what?
🏹 Here is why the 25,000 zone marked by red circle is a strong support:
1- Round number => 25,000
2- Classic Resistance Zone Turned Support
3- Lower red trendline acting as a non-horizontal support
4- Lower orange trendline acting as a non-horizontal support
5- Demand zone
📈 As per my trading style:
As BTC approaches the red circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
S&P MAJOR Pivot Point back to 2009 LOW - LOWER Prices likely!!Markets are at MAJOR Pivot point around this Trend Line connecting 2009 GFC Low at 666 to today's CLOSE and last DECEMBER 2022 High.
Markets typically get rejected off this resistance and have been rejected every time since 2009 EXCEPT when we had LOW Interest Rates + PPP after Covid. That is ONLY time markets broke ABOVE this line. We broke Below this line in 2022 drop and its proven to be a major pivot point with prices struggling to stay above it. Most recently Price was rejected from this line in Dec 2022. We are retesting it again after Breaking the Downtrend Line from 2022 that everyone thinks means that we now have a "melt up".
Current S&P Price is at May 2021 levels when we had ZERO Interest Rates and PPP. We are ON this Resistance/Pivot Line. CPI Data comes out in the morning.
Probabilities suggest the market gets rejected and goes LOWER not higher. Despite the break in downtrend.
For those of you that think Breaking a down trend and melt up is imminent go back and look at S&P chart in March - May 2008. The SAME Exact pattern as is being formed today occurred before the market tanked lower for next 12 months from May 2008 to 2009 low.
Trade what you see...
AMZN - From A to Z Analysis ✈️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
As per my last analysis (attached on the chart), we were looking for buy setups short-term as AMZN was sitting around a strong support.
AMZN rejected the 80.0 support and traded higher. However, we are still overall bearish trading inside the falling channel in blue.
🏹 For the bulls to take over long-term, we need a break above the upper blue trendline and blue zone 110.0
📉 Meanwhile, the bears can still push lower for a higher low . In this case, as we approach the 80.0 again we will be looking for new short-term buy setups.
Which scenario do you think will happen first? and why?
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
CADJPY Long Trade?On CAD/JPY, there is a great long opportunity. I have identified a demand zone in which the price has made a spike, effectively validating the zone in question. Following my strategy, I will open a long trade targeting the level 100 with a risk-reward ratio of 1:4.
Let me know what you think in the comments.
Have a nice trading week!
🟨 SPX Mega cycleHere is a picture of the mega cycle of the SPX from 1988 to 2032.
I am inherently bullish but I am also prepping for a longer sideways action.
GBPJPY Technical Analysis 19.04.2023 1h chart– Previous Daily candle closed Bullish at 166.530 breaking above the previous Weekly High.
– Buys on close above 166.900 targeting 30min Resistance formed on 16th December 2022 at 167.230, Leaving Runners to the Daily previous Support formed on 14th December 2022 at 167.660.
– Sells on close below 166.450 targeting 4h Support at 166.240, Leaving Runners to the Daily Support formed at 165.930.
– High Impact News data ahead for the Pound Sterling at Pre London for the CPI y/y forecasting 9.8% / Previously was 10.4%, High Volatility expected at the London Open.
SHORT BTC - huge R:RShort idea for BTC/USD.
It looks like we hit a big sell-zone.
This recent uptrend might take a turn and go a bit lower.
Targets 22K-ish, but we look to take profits early ofcourse.
SPXShort opportunity coming soon. It is in best interest to throw caution into the wind going long. The market is likely to reverse to the downside soon as now we are economically news sensitive.
Quick overview of banking results: JPM, Citigroup, WFCThe last week brought earnings from three major U.S. banks, including Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase & Co., and Wells Fargo. Overall, the results for the first quarter of 2023 were mixed, with indicators pointing to positive and negative trends. All three banks showed solid growth in revenue and non-interest income. However, declining deposits and loans paint a worrisome picture for the industry (together with rising provisions for credit losses). As a result, we believe the theme of banking earnings will be “big capitalized banks that can make money even in the current environment versus small, less resilient banks facing obstacles ahead.”
Citigroup
Citigroup Inc. reported a net income of $4.6 billion (up 7% YoY but down 19% YoY when excluding divesture-related impacts) for the first quarter of 2023, compared to $4.3 billion for the same period in 2022. The bank’s revenues grew 12% YoY (or 6% YoY excluding divestiture-related impacts) and 19% QoQ. Operating expenses rose by 1% YoY and 2% QoQ. Citigroup's end-of-period loans were $652 billion at quarter end, down 1% YoY. Deposits remained unchanged versus the prior year, standing at $1.3 trillion.
JP Morgan Chase & Co.
For the first quarter of 2023, JPMorgan Chase & Co reported $12.6 billion in net income (up 52% YoY and 15% QoQ) and record managed revenue of $39.3 billion (up 25% YoY and 11% QoQ). Its noninterest expenses rose to $20.1 billion (by 5% YoY and 6% QoQ). The Consumer & Community Banking division had an ROE of 40%, with average deposits down 4% YoY and client investment assets down 1% YoY. The Commercial Banking division saw its average loans grow 13% YoY and 1% QoQ. However, it experienced a decline in average deposits of 16% YoY and 5% QoQ. Meanwhile, the Asset Wealth Management division saw average loans drop by 1% YoY and 1% QoQ, with average deposits declining as much as 22% YoY. The bank’s total deposits dropped by 7% YoY and average deposits by 14% YoY and 3% QoQ.
Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo reported $4.9 billion (up 32% YoY and 52% QoQ) in net income and $20.7 billion in total revenue (up 17% YoY and 3% QoQ) for the first quarter 2023. Net interest income rose by 45% YoY, while noninterest income dropped 13% YoY. Period-end deposits decreased by 8% YoY and 2% QoQ. Furthermore, period-end assets fell by 3% YoY.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Bitcoin market cycles leading into 2025Here it is crypto fam. Here we have the market cycles for Bitcoin and in color. We begin with the year of the bull run then we have the bearmarket year then the year that no one likes which is the year of Pain. After pain we have the famous and most anticipated Bitcoin halving year then the most exciting time in crypto is the Bullrun year. We have had three of these cycles already and the fourth is coming upon us soon. Before we have fun though we will be going through the year of Pain this year because even though Bitcoin is climbimg beautifully now we are expecting another test to the bottom which we call Pain. The year of the halving in 2024 will be a great time to buy up your favorite projects and then when 2025 comes we have a beautiful Christmas.
EURUSDMarket in uptrend on daily and 1 hour time frame
Monthly resistance did not hold
waiting on pullback to support zones marked on chart
once market reaches support I will wait for wick rejection before entering bullish
Retail sentiment is bullish on USD, as we know most retail traders lose money this is therefore bearish for USD
Fundamentals still in favour of USD, however with lower than expected CPI numbers yesterday we
can expect FEDS to pause or slow down on interest rate hikes
Stop loss will go below structure
Take profit 3x risk
