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NDX vs XAUThis analysis is very rough, but if we go by the 2000 recession, NDX took 17 years to recover. In the meantime, between 2001and 2011while the ND went nowhere in terms of value, gold shined (golden line chart below) as it doubled in value, doubled again, and then again from about USD250/oz to 1570/oz. If this is in any way a repeat, as I am afraid this time we might potentially be facing a depression and not a recession, if the current support is broken, the next recovery point of the "critical long term support" line will be in 26 years, Meanwhile, XAU has hit a predicted low and bounced back 200$, a level that i believe will never drop to again. What are your thoughts? Let's discuss.
TVC:NDQShort
by siacovides
1
Q&As: non-market dataThere's some curious personalities that trade (at least claim to trade) based on news, fundamental metrics, alt data n stuff. I don't mean invest, I mean trade. Well that looks like a skill to be proud off, superstimuli always feels cool aye? Good thing tho there no real reason in doing it all. The most precise term to explain non-market data is, well, everything that ain't have a direct involvement with what happens inside the order matching servers of a given exchange. So open interest is in fact a great example of non-market data. The one & only real purpose for using all this data is to know (not to guess/predict/forecast, not to even anticipate), but to understand when the ACTION is going to happen. If you think deeper, ultimately it's all about asset selection to satisfy whatever purpose you got. if you ever got caught yourself feeling fooled when media release a bad info but prices go up, or media release a good info but prices go down, it's ok. It doesn't work that way, direction of prices can't be affected this way. Direction of prices is the result of how buyers meet sellers which is based on +inf number of factors, where a non-market data is simply just one of these +inf factors. It exclusively provokes action, meat, hype, momentum, volatility, whatever you call it. What's happening is that things start to happen very fast. Without a trigger event, the trading activity would've been the same, it just would've take longer to unwind. News don't change the structure, they make it all happen faster, that's it. Examples of non-market data that can be used to expect action: 1) Trading schedule, eg the US, EU opening times; 2) Economic releases; 3) Commitment of traders reports; 4) Significant news; 5) Changes in yield curves; 6) "Fundamental" stock data; 7) Open interest; 8) etc etc etc One really important thing to add is that, just like trading activity is understood in context (other resolutions), sizing also includes context (equity control, market impact), the same way every non-market data event lives in the context (previous releases, other releases, overall economy). You're interesting not in a new per se, but rather in what does it mean in the world. For example, inflation reports don't mean much when the rates are low, but when the rates are high, they trigger significant activity. That's the area where statistical learning, automated learning, "machine" learning, 'Really' starts to make sense business-wise. The ultimate goal is to create a system that will process every kind of data you have (NLP and TDA should help) and output the tickers with raising/already risen levels of interest.
CBOT:ZN1!Education
by gorx1
Flawed concepts: the way they sell volume & market profilesImagine daily profiles put on each day on the chart, and let the words in purple provoke some fruitful doubts in your mind. The presented and advertised way of using volume & market profiles is essentially a way of approximating the real levels. This way is very bad. 1) The most fundamental and very obvious flaw is that it disregards the sequence of events. You can take a chart, reshuffle bars in order, or lol, just invert it horizontally. and you'll end up with different charts that have the same profile. All good bro? It's time series lol, sequence does matter. That's why you can't use profiles and non-weighted stats unless you have a very specific goal; 2) 70% rule, normal distributions & standard deviations have nothing to do with aggregated tick data. As a process, it can all can be modeled as a morphing distribution, a constant fight between normal and uniform distributions, the double auction dynamic distribution. But yeah, ofc course you can't read it in a book, gotta think for yourself a lil aye? In normal distribution 70% make sense, in the uniform one it makes sense to consider 100% (the whole distribution) as the area of interest. So overall it's somewhere in between 70 and 100. Also, confirmed with my R&D, bots give the best performance when a price channel includes 80-90% of data (mostly 80), best metrics converge around this number; The real way to use profiles is when you consciously need to disregard an order of events within a certain period and have some kind of summary of it. It's applicable when a certain period has some distinguishable significance: when levels are formed, positioned and cleared. There, you are not really interested in order of things within these events, rather in summaries of these events, there you're doing the right thing. Otherwise, POCs of 'every' period doesn't have equal significance. Summarizing volumes within a week/day/months etc, making a profile & taking 70% so you gonna get VAHs and VALs of it won't magically calculate you the real levels, only approximate em, but 4 real there are better and less computationally intensive ways of doing it, just get a box plot with 10th and 90th percentiles. This video might be really mind opening for you, I really respect it & its creator. If you wanna know how to find levels 4 real, check the linked ideas & use it with pleasure.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by gorx1
The unknown obvious: fundamental state of a market...... of individual assets Is always a directional movement, never a range, mean-reversion or whatever you call it. It’s very easy to prove, you can divide every range by trends, but you can’t divide trends by ranges. Even with a help of some mental gymnastics and self-lies, by telling yourself, “I can divide this trend segment by several ranges one after another'', by continuing doing so, going higher and higher in resolutions, at some point you’ll reach ticks that can’t be divided further. Here you can say that every tick is a tiny range of its own. However, suddenly you remember that every tick is either up or down, which is a tiny trend of its own, and from this point you ‘really’ can’t divide it further. So, DSP mindset is conceptually wrong and not applicable to the markets, unless you're trading composite assets (pairs, spreads, whatever), where range IS the fundamental state. Market Is not a signal there’s no noise there lol , use DSP for music to make dope EQs and saturators, and use the real technical & real quantitative analysis for trading;
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by gorx1
3
BTC Market Structure Changing - What to watch for Understanding price action and market structure is one of the most valuable concepts in terms of keeping your head straight in this market. Bitcoin recently printing a couple signs of changing market structure and I wanted to share because sometimes this stuff is almost too simple that people overlook it. The chart above is showing that after the enormous BTC drop in November, we started to print some higher highs and higher lows. In other terms, the 4hr chart was showing a bullish uptrend. This uptrend is shown by the orange line on the chart. All of this is great and wonderful, but this is where things start to change. About a week ago, BTC price action pushed through this uptrend and closed a strong bearish candle. This was our first sign that something in the structure/trend is changing. This is an important thing, so I'll repeat it; The price action breaking through the orange trend line DOES NOT mean the market is reversing but it's a great warning sign that it's time to pay attention and be cautious with trades. This price action continued to drop far enough that we have already printed a lower low, which is also marked on the chart. And yet again, this does not mean that the market is reversed and going down, but that it's time to pay close attention to the price action coming up. So the question is what's next? That is impossible to predict perfectly, but I'd like to share what is incredibly possible using similar market structure and ideas: If the market structure is actually changing like the warning signs have been saying, then it's fair to expect a lower high to be printed as the market moves in waves. The question is simply where to expect a lower high. It can occur anywhere, but what I have marked on the chart is what I would consider to be a highly likely area for a lower high. This would be retesting a level of strong resistance for BTC. This also overlaps nicely with the Fibonacci golden pocket retracement that BTC loves to follow. That's really all there is to it, just support and a couple Fibonacci levels. This may change as more data comes in the next couple weeks but this is on my radar right now. Happy trading! And keep an eye out for a lower high in the near future! Slight word of caution: Volume will likely be very low in the coming 2 weeks due to holidays so don't get caught up too much in the noisy data and price action that occurs between now and the new year
by Obscure_Trading
How to Choose the Right Indicator?Many traders, especially when starting out find themselves in a constant search of the best trading strategy. A quick Google search is enough to scare anyone starting out, as the number of indicators and strategies to use under different market conditions is overwhelming. 🗒In this article, we will discuss *1* indicators nature and the correct way to use it, *2* how to choose the right indicator, and most importantly *3* how to know if the indicator is reliable or not. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 📌 First, what are indicators? Origin and Nature Indicators are statistical tools that digest price data, OHLC of each candle, add a formula to it, and then convert it into visual information such as graphs or oscillators. Indicators provide information about the strength of a trend, momentum, and possible reversals. When it comes to indicators, we can divide them into four classes: Momentum indicators, Trend indicators, Volatility indicators, Volume Indicators. Knowing which one belongs to which category can help you make much better trading decisions. On the other hand, combining indicators in a wrong way can lead to a lot of confusion, wrong price interpretation, and, subsequently, to wrong trading decisions. 📌 The correct way to use indicators. Indicators don’t provide signals. Most traders never look at the indicators they are using and even less have ever tried to understand the formula the indicator uses to analyze price. They then use their indicators in the wrong context and wonder why nothing works. 🗒Indicators don’t tell you when to buy or when to sell. They don’t even tell you when something is overbought or oversold. Indicators are great tools if a trader understands their true purpose. Indicators provide information about price, how the price has moved, how candles have shaped, and how recent price action compares to historical price action. Again, not a direct signal to buy or sell. Thus, the job of a trader is to interpret the information on their indicators in a meaningful way and turn it into a story about price action and buying/selling pressure. Who is in control right now? Is the market ranging or trending? Is price losing strength or gaining momentum? 📌 How to choose the right indicator? That suits your trading style and personality ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 📕 * Meaningful: Represents important information. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Your indicator choice should match your trading style. The purpose of indicators/strategies is to offer a way to identify clues and to provide a framework for traders to work in. Our main job, as traders, is to collect clues and combine them in a meaningful way to have an edge over the market. 🗒 Only add indicators that help you put the odds in your favor. -- If it doesn’t, you don’t need it. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 📕 * Objective: Has a clear operational definition of what is being measured. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Indicators are ideal for rule-based trading as indicators take out the guesswork by providing information that is totally objective especially for newbies who are struggling with discipline. The most successful strategies/indicators are those where not a lot of individual interpretation is required. 🗒 Only use indicators that help you make objective decisions. -- If it doesn’t, you don’t need it. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 📕 * Understandable: Easy to comprehend and interpret. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Indicators are great tools especially for amateurs who do not know how to relate price data into meaningful relationships. Indicators' main purpose is to make your life easier, not more sophisticated. 🗒 Remember: K.I.S.S. Keep it simple stupid! -- If it is complicated, you don’t need it. 📕 Last but not least, less is more: The problem with indicator redundancy is that when a trader picks multiple indicators that show the same information, he/she ends up giving too much weight to the information provided by the indicators. 🗒 “All Strategies / Indicators are good; if managed properly.” ~ Richard Nasr --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 📌 How to know if the indicator is reliable? Cheat Sheet Checklist 📕 * Does it repaint, disappear or recalculate? We have all been there. An indicator looking good /profitable on the chart, but perform horribly under live market conditions. Most indicators are designed to only show/keep winning signals. Do not, ever, include an indicator in your trading plan before testing it on a demo account. 🗒 Here is a simple step by step guide on how to test indicators: - Attach your indicator to any chart. - Keep your trading platform running for a while for the indicator to plot a couple of signals. - Take a screenshot of the chart. - Refresh by switching between the timeframes. - Compare your chart with the screenshot If the indicator’s signals /drawings change location or disappear, then it is a red flag. Such indicators are not reliable and shouldn’t be used in any way. 📕 * Does it lag? In general, indicators are lagging, but so is price action. An indicator can only analyze what has happened already. Just as a candlestick or chart pattern only includes past price data. Nothing to worry about so far, as we mentioned above, indicators only provide information and do not offer signals. However, some indicators are too lagging. This kind of indicators looks good on historical data but appear too late under live market conditions. 🗒 Pro Tip: Always take into consideration when, where, and how does the signal appear. 📕 * Is it TradingView friendly? 90% of custom indicators do not work on TradingView, because PineScript does not allow recalculation. Thus, the signal/drawing can’t be modified once it is generated by the indicator. Therefore, indicators that are available on TradingView stand out from the crowd, and they are considered more reliable. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 📌 In brief, indicators are very famous tools and used by millions of traders. However, often traders don’t really know what their indicators are doing or how to use them. Always be aware of the objectives of your trading style and what you are trying to accomplish with the indicators. Then, adjust accordingly. Once a trader can stop using indicators as signal-tools, he will be able to transform his trading to new heights. Happy trading! Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. ~Rich
Education
by TheSignalyst
42
BTCUSDHello everyone! Hope you doing well, I closed my Short positions yesturday and currently im waiting for a next #Long move to get liquidity at the upper border, after which the fall will continue, my on-chain metrics at very high values, which signals a short position, I think that when it reaches 17300-17400, the indicators will strongly signal the opening of a short position, after a successful withdrawal of liquidity, we will sink to the bottom. At the moment I opened a Long position with a short stop at 16300
by MMJtop
SPXHello everyone, I drew you my medium-term plan for SPX for 3-6 months, this week we saw a false takeaway, just like on bitcoin, which I wrote about earlier and warned you, the markets are not ready to start rising, we have not fallen to the bottom, you can see According to the reaction of people on Twitter, any growth of 5% on any active is perceived by society as a reversal, and this just means that people are still hoping for growth. Remember, we never grow due to the belief in growth and never fall due to the belief in falling, the market always goes for liquidity. I wish you a wonderful Sunday, write your ideas in the comments, I will be extremely interested in talking with you
TVC:SPX
by MMJtop
BTCUSDTwelcome everyone! Well, another week is coming to an end. I'll be happy to share my thoughts. Last week gave us quite a strong volatility, last night I decided to close my short positions in Bitcoin. At the moment, we have formed a range of two price levels 17300-16600. Since we all know that the market is always looking for liquidity, I think it is extremely important to test the level of 17300 initially before continuing the dive. At the chart I also displayed my entry and exit at the asset. I will try to entry short position at 17300 with a short stop Write your thoughts in the comments I will be glad to talk with you
Short
by MMJtop
2
SOL is still retracing support.Today's Solana price analysis is pessimistic. The most resistance is found at $14.57. At the time of writing, SOL was trading at $12.31. Solana's price analysis for December 17, 2022, suggests that the market is completely bearish; however, Solana has achieved enormous negative momentum, indicating a decrease in the SOL market. Solana's pricing has stayed negative in recent hours. Today, the price dropped from $13.06 to $11.94. However, the market began to rise in value again soon after, since the cryptocurrency had already gained more of its value. Furthermore, Solana has surged to $12.31, barely shy of the $12.50 level. Solana's current price is $12.31, with a trading volume of $383,744,102. Solana has been taken ill. This gives us 8.37% in the last 24 hours. Solana currently ranks at #15 with a live market cap of $4,510,324,801.
BITTREX:SOLUSDLong
by DEinvestment
🟨 Recession = More VolatilityWHAT IS IT Modelling previous moves of the S&P500 Recession & Non-recession moves, we can create a model for 2 scenarios: Non-recession Bull *Cyan* Recession Bear *Orange* HOW TO USE IT Bear markets have never ended before the start of recessions, so a recession would likely mean new lows in the market indexes. The stock market tends to lead the economy out of a recession, too, by an average of four months. Absent a financial crisis, the recession should be shorter than recent cases. The orange line in the chart below shows the average performance of the S&P 500 nine months before the end of a recession bear to three months after, which would align with a 9/30/2023 recession end date. The average recession bear decline is 34.6%, but a milder recession could equate to a smaller-than-average drop. To date, the 2022 decline is in line with the average non-recession bear. The market took the Fed’s threat to push the economy into recession seriously, so for now, the policy mistake scenario is in play.
SP:SPX
by TintinTrading
ETH bearish today AGAIN!!!The most recent update to the price analysis of Ethereum is negative. The price dropped to $1,271 today, but the $1,268 support level is still in place. Due to increased selling pressure from the negative side, the price analysis of Ethereum is bearish. The currency saw tremendous value growth over the last two days as the market followed the bullish trend, but a correction was necessary to allow for the subsequent continued rise. As a result of the bears resisting further upward rises today, the situation has altered, and the cryptocurrency pair has begun to fix itself. The team is currently looking for support just below the $1,268 level. Resistance to the move-up was noted at $1,336.
CRYPTOCAP:ETH.DLong
by IPatrice