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General Market commentYesterday I cut half of my open positions. Namely the digestion I was looking to get, in the obvious line of resistance (200DMA) is not acting as per model. Historical Precedent What is different is the way that the market digested the correction. I was expecting much more the a tight sideways digestion on low volume (green) but the action is not tight (purple). Now the low volume is there (red) ! However, this makes me much more cautious about the bullish scenario. The model we wanted was a much tighter action. Do not let low volume mislead you! Check out the correction in 2007. We started on low volume but then on the bottom the down volume picked up. To be honest we never really got to "panic" mode in this bear market. The PutCall, VIX - never really showed panic markers, on the top of that the meme stocks are breaking out. Point being is that it is not impossible to bottom without these but it is unlikely.
SP:SPXShort
by TintinTrading
ARE THE BEARS GOING TO FULLY TAKE AUDUSD ?Pair: AUDUSD Timeframe: 1D , 4H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, pennant pattern, ascending triangle ————— Key Takeaway: Saw a big pullback today for this pair up to resistance. We are seeing strength in USD which tells us the pair is going to drop. We want to see a break of bottom pennant and dynamic support before we enter short again ————— Level needed: need a close by 0.68795 ————— Trade: Short RISK:REWARD 1:8 SL: 25 TP: 195 ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
Short
by TheGoldRoom
US500 - Reversal or Continuation?Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst. US500 is overall bearish trading inside that giant falling broadening wedge pattern. Last week, US500 rejected the upper bound / brown trendline and traded lower. For now, the first rejection is around the 3950 zone. The 3950 zone is actually a support zone as we had many rejections from it previously, and also a demand as lately we had an aggressive movement upward from it. As per my trading plan, as US500 approaches the blue zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups on lower timeframes. Unless the blue zone is broken downward, in this case, a movement till the lower green zone (3700.0) would be expected. Which scenario do you think is more probable and why? Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
U
by TheSignalyst
17
TOTAL CRYPTO MARKET CAP LOOKING BEARISH!The market is currently on route to levels lower in the following days to come. This statement will be justified in the paragraphs that follow. Flag break: The market was trending in a bearish flag formation starting on the 18th of June and has recently broken out on the 19th of August. The breakout target levels for this flag formation puts the total market cap at prices as low as $618b, however there are a few strong levels of support that will prevent a sudden drop in price which will result in a hopeful healthy decline in price. It could be argued that the $765b support could be a bottom for this move as there should be a huge buy back at these levels as it does pose as a strong support, being the intraday low of the flag formation. EMA: Following the break from the flag formation, the price has fallen below the 100 Ema again, after peaking above briefly. This adds additional confluence for the bears to continue strong. Looking back at the previous brief break above the 100 EMA followed by a sudden break under, the current price seems to be playing out similarly to the past move. The following attachment is the example of the similarities of the current price movement. RSI: The RSI is looking slightly oversold however still has some way to go in relation to the previous bottoms at 21.74. This indicator strengthens my predictions on a potential consolidation area in order to build up for another bearish move. My opinion over a consolidation area will be discussed below. Support, Resistances & Fib: The price has broken below a previously strong level of support at $960b, therefore it could be argued that the price will consolidate below this level to recreate the support as a prominent resistance. This level of now resistance is also a 50% fib retracement level further strengthening is position as a key level of support and resistance in the future. The red circle displays the break from the key support: The 61.8% - 65% level is approaching and should hold the price up for some time. It could be argued that the price has fallen into a consolidation area between $972b and $911b. This potential consolidation area would further create health in the price action by making sure the market does not overextend, however due to the current news regarding inflation reduction by the fed could result in the price falling straight through these levels due to massive sellouts however this is all speculative at the moment. I shall be looking into the matter which will be discussed in an article that follows. Feel free to give me your most honest opinion on the current market. Thank you
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by Crisp_Flow
RLinda ! EURUSD -> Review for the new weekEURUSD is trading in a global downtrend, currently the price is in the critical zone for the last 20 years. After a false breakdown and a test of 0.99000, the price forms a local rise. I have drawn a local support trend line on the chart, which shows how price is behaving. We have a local uptrend, but it is under a strong support level of 1,000, it is hard to speculate what will happen next. I assume that there are high chances that the falling trend will continue, but what the price shows now, can be a precondition for further growth. Regards R.Linda!
by RLinda
8
You Can't Trade on Indicators Alone - Watch the TriggersYou cannot trade on technicals alone. One has to watch the triggers and wait for them to conclude. This was a case in point on Friday 26th August 2022, after the Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chair Jay Powell. Bulls drove the market up just prior to the speech thinking that released economic data was good for a continuation of the bear market rally. Then Chair Powell came on and in a few minutes the market tanked, BIG!!. The big shorts scored here. The bottom line is don't trade on opinions or technicals alone. Watch for the triggers. Triggers are events, economic data and Fed decisions that sway the direction of the markets.
U
by tonyescorcio
BTC market cycles...Anger or Depression Stage 4? Look up that infamous "Wall Street Cheat Sheet, psychology of a market cycle" diagram The 4th stage is the markdown and downtrend. In the very first cycle it looks pretty textbook where stage 1 is a consolidation box but crypto does crypto things...by the time COVID came the stage 4 into stage 1 is a WIDE and volatile type of consolidation which lead to the 2nd markup to ATHs. This year we have inflation, another macro event! Stage 4 into a theoretical stage 1 could end up doing the same, it's definitely not clear cut or this stage extends further down first before a basing type of consolidation. But...the clue is to watch the 40 ma cross/rejection and what happens on this broadening pattern. A clear cross on the ma and pattern break could signal a new stage 1 (can have intermediate steps) in which a new set of unpredictable and volatile patterns form! Btw this is speculative. I could redraw this as well and this could very well still be gigantic top on stage 3 (like cycle 1 pattern breakdown, this entire top here could also be a larger broadening pattern with a failed breakout) But I am looking at it in terms of smaller cycles and patterns but I will keep updating this analysis on it. *** currently *** 1. bear flag 2. 3rd touch on broadening support bounce 3. price moving towards the 40ma 4. will it swing up to test resistance? 5. what/when/if will the next stage 1 base look like? 6. the last cycle just take notice the wide and sideways 1a/1b I pointed out. 7. last cycle lasted 700d, I duplicated that period of time to current cycle. What if it repeats and it lines up right to where the bear flag could hit (channel upwards) the resistance? 8. the 40 ma cross/reject will be something interesting to watch. ...past performance is not indicative of future results...but sure lines up nice!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by kenloi
THE BEST PLACE TO BE SHORTING GBPNZDPair: GBPNZD Timeframe: 1D , 4H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, trend channel ————— Key Takeaway: GBP has significant weakness as it is and have been down trending for some time. We have just bounced off the top of the trend channel, high volume level and rounded number level which tells us we are in for another bearish swing ————— Level needed: need a close by 1.90325 ————— Trade: Short RISK:REWARD 1:4 SL: 40 TP: 150 ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
Short
by TheGoldRoom
2
USDCHF ARE WE ABOUT TO SEE A REVERSAL?Pair: USDCHF Timeframe: 1D , 4H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, ascending triangle pattern, pennant ————— Key Takeaway: We have broken our upwards trend line and seen a bounce off our resistance levels. We now need to see a push through support and rounded number and we will then be entering short ————— Level needed: need a close by ————— Trade: Short RISK:REWARD 1:11 SL: 20 TP: 220 ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
Short
by TheGoldRoom
VIX has a death cross on the dailyWhat Is a Death Cross? The "death cross" is a market chart pattern reflecting recent price weakness. It refers to the drop of a short-term moving average—meaning the average of recent closing prices for a stock, stock index, commodity or cryptocurrency over a set period of time—below a longer-term moving average. The most closely watched stock-market moving averages are the 50-day and the 200-day. Despite its ominous name, the death cross is not a market milestone worth dreading. Market history suggests it tends to precede a near-term rebound with above-average returns. (investopedia) Historically what happened when VIX has a death cross: Death Cross Date. Spike date Range 8/20 2020 9/3 2020 21 to 41 11/17 2019 12/2 2019-2/25/2020 11-85 3/18 2019 3/22 2019 11-24 7/6 2018 10/10 2018 11-35 4/8 2016 6/24 2016 12-26 4/14 2015 5/6 and 6/30 2015 11-27 5/6 2014 8/1 2014 10-17 11/22 2014 2/3 2014 12-6 So statistically, When death cross is observed, VIX tend to bottom at 11's. After the bottom we tend to see a meaningful spike. Get ready for a great bull run for days/weeks.
CBOE:VIXShort
by aaronrtan
3
NZDUSD CONTINUATION SETUPPair: NZDUSD Timeframe: 1D , 4H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, Fibonacci retracement ————— Key Takeaway: Seen price break trend line and test support, we have also seen a bounce off 0.5 on the fib retracement level. As USD strength is still all there we will be shorting this pair as we are starting to see signs of a continuation of bearish movement ————— Level needed: need a close by 0.61945 ————— Trade: Short RISK:REWARD 1:7 SL: 15 TP: 100 ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
Short
by TheGoldRoom
AUDNZD DOUBLE TOP Pair: AUDNZD Timeframe: 1D , 4H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance ————— Key Takeaway: Seen alot of resistance against trend line and a double top form on the 1H chart, once we see a good amount of bearish momentum we will be looking for short entry ————— Level needed: need a close by 1.11460 ————— Trade: Short RISK:REWARD 1:13 SL: 10 TP: 130 ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
Short
by TheGoldRoom
1