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Devil's Advocate Analysis of Prior AnalysisI mentioned an analysis would be published in the event the market has not topped. This analysis can be useful if the market abides by it we could return up, otherwise it can help confirm the market top did occur on June 16. If the top from June 16 was not the market top we are likely in Intermediate wave 4 and may have possibly finished the bottom with the low on June 23. Based on waves ending in 2BC4, the quartile levels for retracement (light blue lines) are 13.73%, 15.06%, and 74.64%. The duration for Intermediate wave 4 is either 2 or 12 trading days based on model agreement. Second most model agreement is at 15 and 20 days. Based on waves ending in BC4, quartile levels (yellow on chart above) are 23.9%, 46.49%, and 55.05%. Majority of models point to a duration of 2 trading days long, with second most at 3 trading days. Third model agreement is 12 days and fourth agreement is 7 days. The broadest dataset is models ending in C4 wherein the quartile levels are 27.2%, 42.48%, and 55.05%. Trading day duration have most models agreeing with 12 days. Then the models agree on duration in the following order: 5 days; 1 & 7 days; 2, 4, & 6 days; and 8 & 14 days. The original analysis when forecasting Intermediate wave 4 had the same levels for retracement while the lengths were shorter. The most accurate levels based on specific relational data has already been surpassed when the market dropped beyond 3 days and the lowest level was well below 4388.20 (15.06% retracement). It is still possible for Intermediate wave 4 to go below 4388.20 and beyond 3 trading days in length (4 days at the time of writing). My other indicators at the bottom of the chart indicate a near term bottom is not likely in which further indicates the market will still achieve a new low soon. A wave 3 signal did occur inline with the June 16 market top which could have indicated the end of Intermediate wave 3, however, it also signals the end of a 2, 4, or B wave. My initial analysis has this as the end of a macro wave B. My SAG Gauge indicates more down days are record to pull the market back from an overbought territory that always corrects. I still believe the market topped on June 16th and we will be heading down for at least the next 14 months. This analysis of being in Intermediate wave 4 will only be proven accurate if a new high above 4448.47 is achieved while invalidated below 4048.28.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
Looks like two weeks left of the bear market nowThe end is coming in focus. We have re-adjusted some key points and placed the next estimates on the chart. The biggest question was the placement of Minor 1 (yellow), once Minor 2 jumped. We are breaking down the future on the hourly chart to make it easier to follow along. We are in Minor wave 3, a day later than originally expected. The index dropped after the inflation report as expected, but the nearly 200 point rise was surprising. We called the low on the morning of the inflation report the end of Minor 1 and the top occurred early Friday to end Minor 2. We are now in Minor 3. Based on waves ending in 553, models have highest agreement on a length of 1, 2, and 4 days long. Second highest agreement at 5 days and then it drops to 3 and 7 days. Movement extensions based on waves ending in 553 have 1st quartile movement at 124.33%, median at 158.475%, and 3rd quartile at 1.7654%. These levels are plotted with the light blue lines on the chart. Based on waves ending in 53, models have highest agreement on 4 days, second highest on 5 days, then 7 days, 3 days, and 1 day rounding out the top 5 potential lengths. Movement extensions on the same data has the quartiles at 147.99%, 167.45%, and 201.7%. I am looking for a target of about 5 trading days. My models do not count the day Minor 2 ended (Friday October 14) as day 1. This means day 5 would be this coming Friday. Five trading days consist of 32.5 trading hours, and I will round this wave out to around 35 trading hours. Six of those hours has finished and occurred on Friday. Minor wave 3 is composed of 5 Minute waves. Minute wave 1 tends to account for 21% of the overall length of the wave it resides in, Minute wave 2 is around 11%, 3 is 40%, 4 is 9%, and 5 is 25%. Based on these values and an estimated total for Minor wave 3 to be near 35 trading hours, I am projecting Minute wave 1 to last around 7 hours, meaning we may bottom within the first 2 hours on Monday October 17. We would then rise over the next 4 trading hours. I rounded this out to align near the end of trading on Monday, meaning we could top and end Minute wave 2 late tomorrow. Minute wave 3 could last 14 hours. This means the market will likely drop on Tuesday and Wednesday (accounting for around 13 hours). Thursday could begin Minute wave 4 up for around 3 hours. This means we may start Thursday on an upward trajectory but top midday and begin the final wave 5 decline. I have wave 5 running through the close on Friday. These dates, times and projected levels are outlined on the chart above. I have also adjusted the end points and levels for Minor waves 4 and 5. Minor wave will be the bottom of the market for 2022. We will see how it pans out but I think the bear market is nearly over….for now. We have done well forecasting these past few months and will see what the future holds. The biggest indicator to our system would be the indeed short-term bottom occurring around the end of this month and a massive reversal to follow. Let us know what you think
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
2
Bottom in sight; bull trap aheadThus far, Primary wave C is difficult to determine where the internal waves are located. We have either seen the end of Intermediate waves 1 and/or 3 or something else. The projection is for Primary wave C to last 37-46 days while it drops 863.93-1117.41 points. If this range is valid, where should each intermediate wave end? This analysis will determine potential identifiers for tracking the downward movement. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 1 LENGTH In general, Intermediate wave 1 typically contributes 11-30% of the larger wave’s length it resides in with a maximum contribution of 53%. This means wave 1 could last 4 to 14 days and up to 24 days at the most. Waves ending in C1 (Primary wave C, Intermediate wave 1) typically make up 11-34% with a maximum of 41%. This means wave 1 could last 4 to 16 days and no more than 21. Waves ending in 2C1 typically make up 11-33% with a maximum of 39.77%. This means wave 1 could last 4 to 15 days and no more than 18 days. Cumulatively, wave 1 could last 4 to 15 days and no more than 18. MOVEMENT Through similar considerations, wave 1 tends to contribute 33-59% of the larger wave’s overall movement with a maximum of 104%. This means wave 1 could drop 292.48 to 669.10 with a maximum drop of 1162.11. Waves ending in C1 typically move 26-66% of the larger wave with a maximum at 91%. This means wave 1 could drop 227.64 to 735.48 with a maximum of 1016.84. Lastly, waves ending in 2C1 move 31-77% with a continued maximum of 91%. This means wave 1 could drop 272.65 to 867.64. Using these ranges, Intermediate wave 1 could bottom between 3769.66-4409.66 with middle ground between 3968.2-4409.66. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 2 LENGTH In general, Intermediate wave 2 typically contributes 5-12% of the larger wave’s length it resides in with a maximum contribution of 35%. This means wave 2 could last 1 to 6 days and up to 16 days at the most. Waves ending in C2 typically make up 6-12% with a maximum of 25%. This means wave 1 could last 2 to 5 days and no more than 11. Waves ending in 2C2 typically make up 8-15% with the same maximum of 25%. This means wave 2 could last 2 to 7 days. Cumulatively, wave 2 could last 2 to 7 days and no more than 11. MOVEMENT Through similar considerations, wave 2 tends to contribute 16-30% of the larger wave’s overall movement with a maximum of 93%. This means wave 2 could gain 139.74 to 339.64 with a maximum gain of 1047.57. Waves ending in C2 typically move 18-32% of the larger wave with a maximum at 73%. This means wave 2 could gain 156 to 358.80 with a maximum of 819.96. Lastly, waves ending in 2C2 move 19-56% with a continued maximum of 73%. This means wave 2 could move 166.05 to 628.57. Using these ranges and considering Intermediate wave 1 will likely bottom between 3968.2 – 4409.66, Intermediate wave 2 could top between 4134.25 – 4602. Stronger consideration and likelihood places the top between 4200 – 4602. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 3 LENGTH In general, Intermediate wave 3 typically contributes 27-43% of the larger wave’s length it resides in with a maximum contribution of 66%. This means wave 3 could last 10 to 19 days and up to 30 days at the most. Waves ending in C3 typically make up 29-44% with a maximum of 59%. This means wave 3 could last 10 to 13 days and no more than 27. Waves ending in 2C3 typically make up 26-42% with a maximum of 45%. This means wave 3 could last 9 to 19 days and no more than 20 days. Cumulatively, wave 3 could last 10 to 18 days and no more than 20. MOVEMENT Through similar considerations, wave 3 tends to contribute 45-70% of the larger wave’s overall movement with a maximum of 107%. This means wave 3 could drop 396.50 to 780.57 with a maximum drop of 1203.33. Waves ending in C3 typically move 60-87% of the larger wave with a maximum at 99%. This means wave 3 could drop 517.32 to 973.60 with a maximum of 1106.91. Lastly, waves ending in 2C3 move 60-82% with a maximum of 88%. This means wave 3 could drop 519.76 to 921.67. Using these ranges and considering Intermediate wave 2 will likely top between 4200 and 4602, Intermediate wave 3 could bottom between 3278.33 – 4082.24 with stronger consideration between 3680.33-4082.24. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 4 LENGTH In general, Intermediate wave 4 typically contributes 5-14% of the larger wave’s length it resides in with a maximum contribution of 34%. This means wave 4 could last 2 to 6 days and up to 16 days at the most. Waves ending in C4 typically make up 5-16% with a maximum of 26%. This means wave 4 could last 2 to 7 days and no more than 11. Waves ending in 2C4 typically make up 6-20% with the same maximum of 25%. This means wave 4 could last 2 to 9 days. Cumulatively, wave 4 could last 2 to 8 days and no more than 11. MOVEMENT Through similar considerations, wave 4 tends to contribute 19-34% of the larger wave’s overall movement with a maximum of 85%. This means wave 4 could gain 164.45 to 379.14 with a maximum gain of 958.18. Waves ending in C4 typically move 22-37% of the larger wave with a maximum at 46%. This means wave 4 could gain 191.45 to 416.90 with a maximum of 512.44. Lastly, waves ending in 2C4 move 22-36% with a continued maximum of 46%. This means wave 4 could move 191.71 to 405.76. Using these ranges and considering Intermediate wave 3 will likely bottom between 3680.33 – 4082.24, Intermediate wave 4 could top between 3872.04 – 4487.24. Stronger consideration and likelihood places the top between 3900 – 4300. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 5 LENGTH In general, Intermediate wave 5 typically contributes 12-29% of the larger wave’s length it resides in with a maximum contribution of 51%. This means wave 5 could last 4 to 13 days and up to 23 days at the most. Waves ending in C5 typically make up 10-21% with a maximum of 37%. This means wave 5 could last 4 to 9 days and no more than 17. Waves ending in 2C5 typically make up 9-21% with a continued maximum of 37%. This means wave 5 could last 3 to 10 days. Cumulatively, wave 5 could last 4 to 9 days and no more than 17. MOVEMENT Through similar considerations, wave 5 tends to contribute 33-56% of the larger wave’s overall movement with a maximum of 90%. This means wave 5 could drop 288.55 to 631.56 with a maximum drop of 1003.99. Waves ending in C5 typically move 40-47% of the larger wave with a maximum at 60%. This means wave 5 could drop 349.11 to 533.56 with a maximum of 668.66. Lastly, waves ending in 2C5 move 40-47% with a maximum of 55%. This means wave 5 could drop 351.73 to 529.15 and no more than 618.49. Using these ranges and considering Intermediate wave 4 will likely top between 3900 and 4300, Intermediate wave 5 along with Primary wave C and Cycle wave 2 could bottom between 3370.85 – 3950 with stronger consideration between 3550-3771. OVERALL PICTURE The potential tops and bottoms have been plotted on the chart above for reference. We can see these targets based on the purple boxes. I laid these independent of the movement thus far. When considered with the movement we have observed I have roughly plotted where waves 1 and 2 have now likely ended. Wave 3 may have ended today with the low, however, I dislike calling the day of analysis as an actual wave end point. If 3 did not end, we may drop within the next 2 days to a very short-term bottom. Wave 4 will not be long, but there could be very large moves as another bull trap is set. This analysis does push wave 5 a little further beyond my original May 20 starting point, but it does help narrow the final market bottom. My original target is the green box, while the wave 5 box from this analysis can be found inside of it. This pending bull trap could see the market drop 400+ points inside of less than 2 weeks. A quick drop could cue additional margin calls and be the capitulation stage of this bear market correction. Hang in there! If you have been following my analysis during this entire correction, you know the end actually is near despite the talks of long term recession. The only thing capable of giving hope and slowing inflation is if the war in Ukraine ends. My money is on something happening to Putin and Russia backing down. This immediate jubilation would provide hope that war-related supply chains for food and energy will be reversible (It won’t be quick but the market does not care). This will begin to correct some inflation which also means the Fed will not have to raise as fast or as many times as originally projected hence keeping borrowing costs lower than they would otherwise rise to by year’s end. But this is just my guess at what bottoms the market. I could be way off.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1