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Turn and burn? Or 4100?Good morning! Well, the last 4 days we've been in a high base and futures are currently trading lower around 3925ish. Still somewhat basing. Or is it turning over? It already touched the 200 day so now we gotta see if the bulls have any more in them to pierce through it. And that could happen. Last week I had mentioned that the markets like a divided congress. GOP took control of the house. Not by much, but just enough. This could give the markets a reason to celebrate in the short term and could cause the market to pierce through to 4100. That would be like an exhaustion finish or max pain for the bears. With the way these markets have been acting this year, I wouldn't be surprised if that happened. Just remember, we are in a bear market. Plan for today: I entered in a low risk diagonal call spread on Tuesday with the anticipation that we would run to 4100 by EOW. If the markets turn over, I'll just let that expire worthless and enter in a short position. Ideally, I wanna see this run to 4100 and then get short. So, I'll just have to wait and see the price action these next two days. Be patient, stay disciplined, control your emotions, trade the market in front of you. Happy Trading!
SP:SPX
by MMOTA_
Monday RecapSo a little selling yesterday. But that was expected after Thursday and Friday. Clearly these new levels we're at have many traders scratching their heads trying to figure out what's next. As of yesterday, we had 65% of stocks trading above their 50 day. Charts are telling you to be bullish. But it's more like cautiously bullish. We can probably continue to base here a couple more days before we go test 410. At the time of writing futures are up over 1%. Generally the week before Thanksgiving is a strong up week so let's see what happens this year. Don't predict....react. Plan for today: Just going to sit on my hands again and wait for a good short entry. Be patient, stay disciplined, control your emotions and trade the market in front of you. Happy Trading!
AMEX:SPY
by MMOTA_
General US Market Update - HeatmapHeatmap SP500 ...looks quite red but is less concerning than one might think. The pullback after the giant gains last week did not come unexpected. Also, the low volume indicated that the big institutions are not in selling mode. All good signals for a continuation of the resumed uptrend. General Market Update Stock Market Pauses After 2 Big Days The stock market wavered Monday, taking a needed pause following the biggest two-day rally since 2008. The Nasdaq composite was down as much as 1.4% early in the day, but then bounced back. After spending part of the day in the black, the main indexes faded in late trading. The Nasdaq closed with a 1.1% loss. The S&P 500 fell 0.9% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.6%. But selling picked up in the last hour of the session and indexes closed at the day's lows. It was bearish action, although not a surprise. Stock Market Looks For Leadership While the major indexes are in confirmed uptrends, investors still need stocks to break out and make gains. In that regard, the picture is still mixed. The energy sector has been leading the market for much of the year and continues to provide opportunities. Remember, the bear market destroyed the leadership — much of it in tech — that led the prior bull market. Fresh leadership could take time to develop and prove itself. With the amount of breakouts and bases investors have to work with right now, an exposure level of 20% to 40% seems adequate.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by JS_TechTrading
Bitcoin and rest of the market in accumulationHi guys lots of mixed signals going around the market at the moment ,which generally indicates big investors wanting to buy in at a cheap price as it shows we have already hit the bear market bottom and through some TA and FA we can make a call that our position is long -RSI has a hit a strong oversold region and is also indicating a strong bullish divergence in the 4 monthly -Market cap has hit the top of the 2018 market and therefore the bottom cap for the 2022 of 850bil -Overall volume is indicative of Huge amounts of oversells leaving bears liable for long positions within 4-8 month positions overall expect all short positions in the next 6 months to get absolutely lit up current volume depth is growing alt market will be prime for yearly long positions entrys right now with most coins being able to 4-8x within the next bull market.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Glo1235122
Is it Time to get Bullish?Man...what a crazy week last week. With the Elections, CPI and the drama with FTX, it was a rollercoaster for sure. The FTX story was something else. But you know, during recessions, entities get exposed. Same thing happened with Enron in the 2000 bubble, the banks in 2008-2009 and now crypto. As the famous Warren Buffett quote says: "A rising tide floats all boats....only when the tide goes out, you discover whos been swimming naked.". So let's recap a little what happened last week. I've been bearish the last few weeks and I had to be since we are in a bear market. With the Elections, FTX and the CPI report, the market was going to make a decision on the direction and the CPI report was what did it. With the gap up and 7% day on Thursday, it broke out of resistance and the downward trend line. The Dollar got crushed and bonds declined by 7%. That's mostly what fueled the rally. The market has been longing a reason to party because inflation peaked. Did they party to hard Thursday and Friday? Thursday, markets chugged 3 beers.Friday, took a shot of whiskey and said "I'm ready for more next week". So look, I know inflation is still at 7% and we still need a ways to get down to the Fed's 2% target. It's a tough pill to swallow if you were bearish. But, you gotta trade the markets in front of you. Especially if the charts are telling you to go bullish. Generally the week before Thanksgiving is a good week for the markets, just not sure how much higher we can go this week because the markets used up A LOT of energy Thursday and Friday. It needs to take a break. If the market wants to party the rest of this month, I don't see why it could crawl it's way to 4100 before the next CPI report. One thing to note is tomorrow's PPI report. If this report comes in hotter, everyone who bought last week might step back a little. So if that happens, this would pull back the markets. If it doesn't come in hot, then we might head higher at a slow pace the rest of the month. Plan for today: Going to sit on my hands today and wait for tomorrow. If PPI comes in hot and we get a big downward reaction in the markets, I'll watch the price action to see if this is a Bull pull back or not. Come Wednesday or Thursday, I'll see if there's a good entry for a bullish position. Be patient, stay disciplined, control your emotions and trade the market in front of you. Happy trading!
SP:SPX
by MMOTA_
ZZZzzzZZZzzz at 3800Good morning! Here we are, Election Day has passed and we get the CPI report tomorrow. Couple things about the Mid Terms. Generally, the markets like it when Democrats have partial control and Republicans partial control. The expectations are, that the Republicans will win the House. If that happens, that could be a good thing for the markets. At the time of writing, Republicans have 199, Democrats 172 and 64 are undecided for the House. Gotta see how that plays out. Because here's the thing. Let's say the Republicans take the House and the Democrats keep the Senate, the markets might actually like that. And with Big Tech taking a beating after all these earning announcements, they're low enough to bid on and that could push the markets higher. Whoever that dude at Morgan Stanley was last week, saying that we could see 4000 or 4100 in the near term, might actually be right if it plays out this way. But remember, longer term, we have significant headwinds and this is still a Bear Market. CPI report is accumulative, like a moving average. If you add up all the monthly CPI numbers, it gives you the annualized CPI. It's going to stay high because at the beginning of this year, we were seeing CPI numbers at about 1%. So when we add all these monthly's up, we're going to get a high number. Obviously, over time, this will come down. Which is why expectations are to get to 4% by early Q2 or abouts. So, if the Republicans' don't take the House, and the CPI report is hot. What does that mean for the markets? Well, we could head back down starting tomorrow or Friday. Either way, these are two possible outcomes that could play out. Plan for the Day: We're technically still in No Man's Land but with a slightly more Bullish lean right now. IF I decide to chase this up to 4000, or 4100, I will do so cautiously and wait for an exhausting point in the rally. We might just hang out here at 3800 today until all the results come in and then tomorrow we could see the true direction. I'll sit on my hands again and just watch the market. Be patient, stay disciplined and trade the market in front of you. Happy Trading!
SP:SPX
by MMOTA_
Fed WeekGood morning! Batteries are recharged for this week, as we have a very important day on Wednesday. THE FED SPEAKS. Not gonna lie, but Friday's action caught me off guard. As I watched the action, I still wasn't convinced. It still had the feeling of a hope rally. Now look, we can still push to about 3970ish to complete the ABC correction before rolling over. And did you see the VIX? JUst got crushed all the way back to 26 maybe even 25 at one point. Still too many mixed signals in the market with the DOW up almost 15% for the month, the NASDAQ showing more of a Bearish Chart set up and the S&P looking like it's ready to follow the DOW. So is this rally going to hold tech up? It's looking that way, but the FED can change all of that come Wednesday. 3900 is a key area of resistance so I wouldn't be surprised if we got some sideways movement the next two days before we see any real price action. Tomorrow might be interesting for the JOLTS Report. Why? Well the FED said in their last announcement that they wanted this number to come in lower. Forecast is somewhere around 9.5 million. So if tomorrow we see this number come in lower. Say, 9 million, it could be off to the races and continue higher. But at the end of the day, everyone is still going to want to hear from the FED. Will they admit the economy is slowing? I'm sure they will and the market is going to like that they acknowledge it. But is it enough? Remember that you get three moves on FED Days. You'll have the initial move, the retracement, then you'll see the direction of the market. So my plan is to just wait for Wednesday to determine if I should go bullish or stay bearish. I still think there are too many uncertainties and the FED will continue its efforts to bring inflation down even more. Either way, it doesn't matter. I need to trade the markets in front of me. Happy trading!
SP:SPX
by MMOTA_
Market Structure Identification ✅Hello traders! ✅ MARKET STRUCUTURE . Today we will talk about market structure in the financial markets, market structure is basically the understading where the institutional traders/investors are positioned are they short or long on certain financial asset, it is very important to be positioned your trading opportunities with the trend as the saying says trend is your friend follow the trend when you are taking trades that are alligned with the strucutre you have a better probability of them closing in profit. ✅ Types of Market Structure Bearish Market Structure - institutions are positioned LONG, look only to enter long/buy trades, we are spotingt the bullish market strucutre if price is making higher highs (hh) and higher lows (hl) Bullish Market Structure - institutions are positioned SHORT, look only to enter short/sell trades, we are spoting the bearish market strucutre when price is making lower highs (lh) and lower lows (ll) Range Market Structure - the volumes on short/long trades are equall instiutions dont have a clear direction we are spoting this strucutre if we see price making equal highs and equal lows and is accumulating . I hope I was clear enough so you can understand this very important trading concept, remember its not in the number its in the quality of the trades and to have a better quality try to allign every trading idea with the actual strucutre
Education
by Snick3rSD
MARKET THOUGHTS 10/14/22Grab a cup of coffee, wake up and read up lol ** (Not a Financial Advice, just sharing my own opinion and the process I do in the morning before I make a decision to trade.) ** As you guys are all aware the SPY went nuts yesterday, anything is possible in the market these days lol. Once the shorts got squeezed above 354 and FOMO kicked in it ran like it stole something :rofl: . Now as you get ready for todays play here are things you should consider based on the charts and technical analysis: - SPY, yesterday, just showed a possible sign of short term reversal from the divergence we've been talking about in the stream the whole week. - The bounce was larger than expected and larger than usual, when a move like this happens one direction, there's a possible consolidation day the next day or pullback, unless volume continues and breaks above key levels continuing to squeeze the shorts and FOMO continues as well. - If you are planning to go Gungho on going long, zoom out first and see the trendline on the daily and the pre-market action on SPY and where its at currently (See Chart Posted). - Break of that trendline upwards can mean retest of the next resistance and probably even retest the next trendline up, but SPY has done its weekly range as of yesterdays candle, so slight chance it will continue breaking to the upside and do another big run. If anything, possible pump then pullback. - The VIX on the weekly hit that trendline we talked about on the streams this week too causing the downward direction which usually does the opposite of the market, hence the run up yesterday. ** Scenario 1 ** VIX bounces above 9ema on the daily and stays above, market pullback. ** Scenario 2 ** VIX breaks below the 9ema on the daily, it will have about 1-2points max move today. Which can mean a pump in the market and will hit exhaustion, so pump and dump. (See VIX Chart Posted). SPY VIX
TVC:VIX
by rjhay22
NZDUSD on a 3-day winning streakThe US will release three high-impact economic indicators during the week's last session, bringing high volatility to USD pairs, particularly against other major FX currencies. In the morning, the US will announce Retail Sales YoY for September; they are expected to drop from a previous 9.1% to 8%. Retail Sales MoM is also expected to fall; the analyst's consensus is at 0.2%; a figure higher than anticipated will bring higher value to the USD as it suggests that economic activity is solid. However, this week we have seen other indicators show that the US economy might be finally slowing down. The US will also release Michigan Consumer Sentiment. The expert consensus is a slight increase from 58.6 to 59; a higher-than-expected figure will strengthen the USD exchange rate. The NZD is gaining ground over the USD; the pair is on a three-day winning streak but continues to be on a general downtrend as the price is trading below the short and long-term moving averages. The relative strength index is at 38%, which will allow the pair to continue moving upwards before entering an overbought status, a lot will depend on the results of the scheduled high-impact economic indicators, but based on pure technical analysis, the pair is likely to continue climbing. The Bollinger bands are wide enough to expect high volatility in the short term; still, they are starting to shrink, suggesting that the pair might enter a consolidation period in the medium term. The bands are moving downwards, strengthening the sell signals in the short term. Read more news.baxiamarkets.com This publication does not provide financial advice for traders, and its only purpose is education. Use all the available information from different analysts and develop your own trading strategy. Trading forex and cryptocurrencies is not for everyone. You should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not indicate future results.
by traderscolo-en
USDCNH is on a 6-day winning streakThe US will release a series of high-impact economic indicators related to inflation and the labor market during the trading session, which will bring high volatility to major Forex pairs. The US will release: Consumer Price Index, which is expected to increase from 296.171 to 296.43; a higher figure will be positive for the USD as it suggests high economic activity. They will also release the Inflation Rate YoY, which is expected to drop from 8.3% to 8.1%; higher inflation will be bullish for the USD but will negatively impact the US Stock market. The US Initial Jobless Claims indicator is expected to increase from 219K to 225K for the first week of October, suggesting that the labor market is finally giving in; however, we have seen surprisingly good numbers for the labor market in recent weeks. Later in the trading session, China will release the Inflation Rate YoY, which is expected to increase from 2.5% to 2.8%; a higher rate will be positive for the Yuan exchange rate against other currencies. China will also release the Balance of Trade for September; analysts anticipate an increase from $79.39B to $81B. China is a prominent exporter and has maintained a surplus since 1995; a higher figure than expected will be positive for the Yuan. USDCNH is on a six-day winning streak; the general trend continues to be upward as the pair is currently trading above the short and long-term moving averages. Our parabolic S A R indicator strengthens the long signals. The Bollinger bands are still wide and moving upwards, which suggests there will be high volatility and that the pair will continue moving upwards; however, the bands are starting to shrink, which indicates that the pair might enter a consolidation phase in the medium term. The relative strength index is at 64%, allowing the pair to continue climbing a bit before entering an overbought status. If this happens, there might be a temporary change in the market sentiment. Read more news.baxiamarkets.com This publication does not provide financial advice for traders, and its only purpose is education. Use all the available information from different analysts and develop your own trading strategy. Trading forex and cryptocurrencies is not for everyone. You should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not indicate future results.
by traderscolo-en
GBPUSD could test support at $1.0812 The pound is on a four-day losing streak against the USD, and the general trend is downwards once again; the pair is losing the gains it made during the previous weeks. The price trades below the short and long-term moving averages, suggesting that the price could sink further down. The Bollinger bands are wide, allowing high volatility in the short term; however, the upper band is starting to shrink, suggesting that the price could begin a consolidation phase in the medium term. The relative strength index is currently at 41%, which will allow the pair to continue falling in the upcoming sessions; we could expect a short-term sentiment change once it gets closer to 30%. The support level on our 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $1.0812 could be tested in the upcoming sessions. Upcoming Events The UK will release the Unemployment Rate economic indicator in the next trading session; it is expected to remain unchanged at 3.6%; a figure higher than expected will be bearish for the GBPUSD pair as it suggests economic deacceleration. Later in the day, the UK will also release Claimant Count Change, which gauges the number of people looking for unemployment benefits. Experts anticipate an increase from 6.3K to 10K this month. A higher figure will hurt the British pound against other currencies. Later in the week, the UK will also release Gross Domestic Product MoM and Goods Tarde Balance, which will significantly impact the GBPUSD exchange rate. GBP USD Read more news.baxiamarkets.com This publication does not provide financial advice for traders, and its only purpose is education. Use all the available information from different analysts and develop your own trading strategy. Trading forex and cryptocurrencies is not for everyone. You should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not indicate future results.
by traderscolo-en
AUDUSD on the moveAUDUSD lost 0.74% in the last trading sessions of the week, and it's on a four-day losing streak; the USD strengthened after the 10-year treasury yield climbed to 3.88%. The pair continues on a downward trend, and the price broke the support level at $0.63633, reaching a new low in over two years. The Bollinger bands are wide and moving downwards, suggesting that there will be high volatility and that price will continue to fall in the upcoming trading sessions. The RSI is about to enter the oversold status, which could change the market sentiment; fundamental news will be key to determining if the AUDUSD pair will continue moving downwards in the short term. Read more news.baxiamarkets.com This publication does not provide financial advice for traders, and its only purpose is education. Use all the available information from different analysts and develop your own trading strategy. Trading forex and cryptocurrencies is not for everyone. You should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not indicate future results.
by traderscolo-en
NZDUSD +1.37%NZDUSD is resuming the downtrend despite weak results from the US Initial Jobless Claims; the pair could find support at $0.55653. RSI is close to entering an oversold status which could change the market sentiment. Bollinger bands are wide and moving down, strengthening the short signals. The US dollar strengthened after Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated that the Fed is far from loosening the monetary policy. Hawkish remarks from other Fed officials also suggest that the rate hikes will continue during 2023, strengthening the USD during the trading session. Read more news.baxiamarkets.com This publication does not provide financial advice for traders, and its only purpose is education. Use all the available information from different analysts and develop your own trading strategy. Trading forex and cryptocurrencies is not for everyone. You should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not indicate future results.
by traderscolo-en
EURUSD +1.70% The euro is gaining ground against the USD, and it is up 3.95% in the last five trading sessions. The pair is getting close to reaching parity, currently at 0.99831. High-impact economic indicators suggest that the US economy is finally slowing down. The US released ISM Manufacturing PMI in the previous session; the result came short of expectations, which hurt the USD. This morning the US also announced JOLT Job Openings for August, which came out at 10.053M. Experts anticipated a higher figure by 772K. The labor market has been solid in the US in the last few months; however, there has been a notable economic deacceleration in the previous few days. This is an important week for the USD as they will announce S&P Global Services PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI tomorrow, Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday, and Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. The last two indicators will gauge the strength of the US labor market in the previous month. Tomorrow, the Euro Area will release S&P Global Services PMI; the previous figure was 49.8, and experts anticipate a drop for September; the analyst consensus is 48.9, which suggests industry contraction, which could benefit the USD. Later this week, the Euro Area will also release other high-impact economic indicators. Retail Sales MoM are expected to fall from -0.3% to -0.4%, while the Retail Sales YoY are expected to have a steeper decline from -0.9% to -1.7%, likely affecting the EURUSD exchange rate. The general trend is currently upwards as the price is now above the short and long-term moving averages; the uptrend is likely to continue if the fundamental news releases are unfavorable for the US labor market. The Bollinger bands are wide and starting to move upwards, suggesting that volatility will continue to be high and that the price will likely move upwards in the short term. The resistance at the parity level will be strong to beat from a psychological point of view. The relative strength index is at 55%, giving the EUR more than enough space to continue climbing before entering an overbought status. Our parabolic SAR indicator suggests that the price will continue to move upwards. Read more about EUR/USD news.baxiamarkets.com This publication does not provide financial advice for traders, and its only purpose is education. Use all the available information from different analysts and develop your own trading strategy. Trading forex and cryptocurrencies is not for everyone. You should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not indicate future results.
by traderscolo-en
Tuesday Market Outlook / Nifty Outlook For Reminder of the weekNifty is trying to break free from the bear grip on the basis of Global rebound seen around the indices across the globe. Real bullish break out in true sense will be when Nifty is able to break out and sustain above 17435 on weekly closing basis. Support for spot Nifty will be at 17026, 16888, 16749 and finally 16461. Resistance for spot Nifty on the upper side will be at 17270, 17435, 17646 and finally 17910.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment