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NZDUSD -2.15% The New Zealand Dollar lost the gains it made in the two previous trading sessions against the US dollar. The kiwi gained 1.76% when the US 10-year Treasury Note spiked earlier in the week. After the US released high-impact economic indicators, the NZD lost strength, and the USD is having a solid week against most major currency pairs. The US released the Personal Spending MoM economic indicator earlier today; the result came out at 0.4%, which is better than the analyst's consensus of 0.2%, strengthening the USD across most major currency pairs. The US also released Personal-Income MoM, and the result came out as experts anticipated at 0.3%, remaining the same as the previous month's figure. The US Michigan Consumer Sentiment was also released this morning, and the result came out at 58.6, which is short of analysts' expectations of 59.5. The result is worse than expected but slightly better than the previous figure of 58.2. The industry is still within the expansion area as it is above 50, suggesting that economic activity remains elevated. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will release an Interest Rate Decision next week; experts agree that the RBNZ will hike the rate by 50 basis points to leave the Interest rate at 3.5%. Annual inflation in New Zealand reached 7.3%, and the RBNZ is expected to continue rising interest rates until inflation drops significantly. Read more about NZD/USD news.baxiamarkets.com This publication does not provide financial advice for traders, and its only purpose is education. Use all the available information from different analysts and develop your own trading strategy. Trading forex and cryptocurrencies is not for everyone. You should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not indicate future results.
by traderscolo-en
USDCNH -0.92% The US dollar is losing ground to some currency pairs after the US 10-year treasury Note spiked in the previous trading session. The Chinese Yuan gained 2.44% after reaching a 14-year high yesterday. The US released Initial Jobless claims this morning, and the result came out at 193K, a better than the expected figure by 22K; analysts anticipated a 215K. The figure is not only better than expected but also better than the previous release, which strengthened the USD against four of the six major currency pairs. China will release N B S Non-Manufacturing PMI at an early stage of the new trading session. Analysts expect the figure to come out at 52.8, while the previous was 52.6. We could see a minimal improvement, but it is more important that the figure stays above the 50 level, which indicates industry expansion, the release of this economic indicator will create more volatility in the exchange rate of the Chinese Yuan against other currencies, mainly against the USD. China will also release N B S Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to come out at 49.6 from a previous 49.4. Although we could see the figure improve slightly, if it stays under 50, market participants will interpret it as an industry contraction and are likely to take action. The USD Index is 17% up this year, and we see very solid numbers in the labor market despite the Fed's efforts to slow down economic growth. It could be hard to beat the dollar this year. Currently, the US stock market negatively correlates with the US dollar. The pair continues on a general uptrend as the short and long-term moving averages are still below the current price; the pair is retracing, but after the release of high-impact economic indicators, the dollar could resume the rally. The Bollinger bands are wide and continue moving upwards, suggesting that volatility will continue to be high and that the pair will likely resume the uptrend. Our Parabolic S A R indicator strengthens the long signals. The relative strength index is recovering from an overbought status, currently at 62%. We could see the pair pull back closer to the support level at 7.061120 before the uptrend resumes. Read more news.baxiamarkets.com This publication does not provide financial advice for traders, and its only purpose is education. Use all the available information from different analysts and develop your own trading strategy. Trading forex and cryptocurrencies is not for everyone. You should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not indicate future results.
by traderscolo-en
USDCHF -1.61% The SwissFranc is gaining ground over the US dollar, but we could see the SwissFranc lose ground after the fundamental news release from the US. They are releasing Initial Jobless claims in tomorrow's trading session; the previous week's figure reached 213K, and analysts expect this week's number to increase to 215K. The US has a very solid labor market that has remained unaffected by the Fed's efforts to slow down economic growth; we have been surprised by the US labor market's numbers in recent months. Switzerland will release high-impact economic indicators on Friday; they will announce Retail Sales MoM, which is expected to increase from -0.5% to 0.6%, while analysts anticipate Retail Sales YoY to decline slightly from a previous figure of 2.6% to 2% in August, this economic indicator is an excellent way to gauge the economic activity in the country. Later in the day, Switzerland will also release the K O F Leading Indicators, where the K O F Swiss Economic Insitute gauges business leaders' confidence about the economy's performance and their organization's prospects. This indicator is expected to drop from the previous figure of 86.5; expert consensus is at 84.5. The US will release indicators on Personal Spending MoM, Personall Incomeme MoM, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Friday's trading session. These economic indicators will cause turbulence in the markets as they gauge how much people spend on goods and services, how much they make, and how they perceive the future for their financial situation. Experts anticipate Personal Spending MoM to increase from 0.1% to 0.2%. Personall Income is expected to grow from 0.2% to 0.3%, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment is also expected to increase from 58.2 to 59.5. This is not very good news for the Federal reserve as they continue intensifying the efforts to restore price stability by hiking rates, which is meant to slow down economic activity. This publication does not provide financial advice for traders, and its only purpose is education. Use all the available information from different analysts and develop your own trading strategy. Trading forex and cryptocurrencies is not for everyone. You should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not indicate future results.
by traderscolo-en
Some Honesty from a Pro Trader & #StockMarket Technical AnalysisHi all. Scroll down for the market analysis & skip all my anecdotal barf if you so choose! :) I have been trading a handful of years now, really for the last two full-time, and quite frankly, I'm just wondering how everyone is doing right now? I'm going to tell you how I'm doing, where I'm at for the year, a brief synopsis of how I arrived here, and then most importantly, where I think we're going. I'll start by saying, I wish everyone would start pointing at the giant elephant in the room.... the CHARTS. The technical charts. Those of us who trade using technical analysis have seen these markets rolling over for six months+ now... I am so TIRED of hearing economic pundits, Youtube "traders", "Wall Street betters", you name it, calling out everything BUT the charts! The fed hikes, "so and so got rid of 20% of employees", the whatever whatever report... Regular, working-class people with a 401k need to know the TRUTH. The CHARTS have looked dreadful for months, and when I scrolled my 2000+ something symbols saved here on TradingView today, looking for ANY ticker that had a price resting above ALL moving averages on ALL time frames, suffice it to say, I think I found TWO. So tell me "pundits/youtubers/twitter traders", does it get exhausting having to dole out new excuses every week to explain away another 8% drop here and there for all these companies, searching their product launch failures and which CEO is in a lawsuit from a s*x scandal? Start calling it like it is and give regular people a chance- the charts all look like death & have for a while now! So that said, here is where I am at, how I am up this year, my struggles, and what I think of the DOW chart (& the S&P & Nasdaq). I had a brilliant run from Nov 2020 - May of 2021, like a lot of you, I'm sure. As in, a 20000% gain, in that short eight month period. I am not kidding. Crypto was on a helluva run during that time. I failed to correctly identify the impending BTC drop (and everything else drop), and I lost a LOT. Like, almost everything I made, a lot. Not entirely, but real close. I lost the psychological trading game, in my desperation. I must have had 50 "a-ha" moments in the months that followed. Some new technical revelations. Some old, that I learned way back at the beginning but had forgotten about, all the way back from five years ago at the start of my studying. From Oct 2021 - March of this year, I dug in deep and wrote out what I can only describe as my "Trading Guide to the Galaxy"- a checklist of every single thing I'd ever learned regarding technical analysis, from all of my many mistakes. And then, I began to grind my trading account back up, in the riskiest way possible- Options. I do not recommend this, but it paid off. I hit an Options trade on March 29th, for HOOD, which was the start. Since then, a string of Options plays, grinding back up, slowly. COIN was a pretty solid gain. Yet another on HOOD. LMND. PTON. Little weekly pops here and there, grinding up. I'm up for the year, substantially, and I'm proud of that, but I am realistic- I took WAY more losing trades this year than winning ones. Like, it's probably 10 to 1 losers. Those few good ones erased my losses. That is not a thing I'm "proud" of, because it isn't sustainable. But honestly? Those little pops from options plays (and again, the pickins' were SLIM as hell) are the ONLY thing that has me up. I know I am LUCKY that my "skin of my teeth" strategy paid off this year. Again, I DO NOT recommend it. Sit it out completely, unless you're prepared to lose it all. Which I easily could have. I have carpal tunnel and upped my glasses prescription from the amount of time spent staring at these charts in the last six months. But now it's time to regroup, and start using everything I've learned in a way that is less risky, so that I can sustain and grow moving forward (aka: regular trades, not *just* options) ...which is what led me to scan over 2000 stock symbols today and want to weep. I am extremely frustrated- I do not want to sit in something for six months just to have it trade sideways. For those of us who have bills to pay, we're trying to make money in ANY market, naturally. So while I'm grateful that at least I'm up this year, I don't want to just stop here.. Surely SOMETHING has to be going up, somewhere, right?? And don't tell me "gold" or "bonds"!! Lol. VERY few stocks look "bottomed out" to me. And those that do are largely (not always) the ones that don't have a lot of volume in the first place. I am essentially trading inverse fibonacci patterns exclusively right now, searching for fib touches that have hit the extensions multiple times, and where I've seen a long term moving average cross as well. Some things that have caught my eye in the last couple months in this type of play: SQSP, AFRM, LMND, PTON, CZOO.. COIN! ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ One thing I've paid close attention to are the three month candle charts. In two days, we get a new 3 month candle on everything. It's an important one. Most importantly though, we get a new three month candle on the 3 Indices... and here is my analysis on that> If you look at the chart for the DOW (& Nasdaq & S&P, but really clearly the DOW), you can see how the DOW essentially pulled a move on a 3 month chart like that of one of the crypto charts had pulled on a weekly chart last year- it had a "blow out" move. A fibonacci "blow out". It's absolutely insane though, because unlike the crypto charts, the bottom fibonacci anchor on the DOW is all the way back in the freakin 1980's. So this means, a DECADES long pattern playing out, that just hit the completion (the 2 extension) last January. Then, we had another solid year of "pump pump pump", hovering above the top, making an irrational high, and now we've begun to topple. Given that the 2 is the top fibonacci extension... what happens now? Well of course, the price usually retraces the ENTIRE MOVE. Say even for the sake of a cleaner chart, we adjust our lower fib anchor to the 2009 low, a 50% retrace still brings the DOW down to $21.6k, 18k for a 618 retracement. I imagine the S&P & Nasdaq would essentially mirror these retracement moves. All this to say, this would be the absolute largest retracement the stock market has EVER seen. Again, it's wild to me, because it looks like a weekly XRP or DOGE chart or something from over a year ago- but it's been DECADES in the making. I am SO curious to see what happens. I am not even looking at the war, fed action, gov policy, etc. I am PURELY looking at these charts. Why I typed all this up for you all is because I'm not seeing a whole lot of this. I'm seeing a whole lot of "Doomsday" sounding rhetoric, and I get it, because omg these charts, but it's seldom based on technical analysis, and instead, all this other garbage. So I'm wondering, for the stocks that I do think are bottomed out (because they're literally hovering above $0), do we see those begin to pump, while everything else trickles down? Likewise for the crypto? I think BTC is going to 12k by the way, but that's another story. I am really wondering what my next move here is. What are you all doing? What does everyone think? Where is everyone's head at given this years trading, and are you up this year? And if so, on what? Surely my balls-to-the-wall option strategy is not the only one (which again, I do not recommend). I will add: I don't think it would be the worst thing (for traders, that is!), for this market to roll over and for this fibonacci pattern to play out- but some other things HAVE to start moving, and it's freaking me out that nothing else really has been, with the exception of these micro-pops that are quickly erased. Also, I am sure many of you have been shorting, and I know that is an option as well (and I have taken a few shorts), but generally, I like longs- no matter what :) So yeah, here's my analysis/my position/my rant/my musings. Feel free to throw your input into the mix. I think it'd take an earth-shattering amount of volume to overcome the rollover we see right now, especially in the next two days- so we shall see! Technical indicators alone, it does not look like that is what is going to happen. Happy trading!
TVC:DJIShort
by UnknownUnicorn1935796
6
AUDUSD -0.38% The Aussie continues losing ground to the USD; the pair is on a three-day losing streak, and it reached a level we had not seen since May 2020. AUDUSD is down 6.75% in the last eleven trading sessions; we could see the pair sink lower with the release of a high-impact economic indicator from AU later in the day. Australia will announce the Retail Sales MoM for August in the early stage of the new trading session; we expect a drop from the previous figure of 1.3% in July; experts anticipate a 0.4% for August. The decline in retail sales suggests that the economic activity in AU is falling, which will hurt the Australian dollar exchange rate against other currencies, particularly the US dollar. The US dollar continues strengthening across most major forex pairs while the S&P 500 fell to a two-year low as investors fear a global recession. The US economic activity is likely to slow down after the Fed hiked the rates; however, it could take some time before we start seeing a significant reduction in inflationary pressures in the US. The US released a number of economic indicators earlier in the session with a mix of good and bad results; Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM came out at -0.9%, while experts anticipated a 0.3%. New Home Sales MoM shocked us with a 28.8% result when analysts expected a -0.5%. Fed chair Jerome Powell expects this figure to drop significantly in the upcoming months after the Fed hiked interest rates 75 basis points to a total of 3.25%. Read more useful trading insights news.baxiamarkets.com Get a free crypto trading guide welcome.baxiamarkets.com This publication does not provide financial advice for traders, and its only purpose is education. Use all the available information from different analysts and develop your own trading strategy. Trading forex and cryptocurrencies is not for everyone. You should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not indicate future results.
by traderscolo-en
ALGO/USDT (Trend Line) As the name implies, trend lines are levels used in technical analysis that can be drawn along a trend to represent either support or resistance, depending on the direction of the trend. Think of them as the diagonal equivalent of horizontal support and resistance. Notice how shortly after breaking trend line resistance, the market came back to retest the trend line as new support and formed a bullish pin bar in the process. This allowed price action traders to buy just before the market rallied for up trend
Long
by majidalisabir
NASDAQ Index - monthly view The chart is pretty interesting here, on a monthly view.  During the covid crash in 2020, the total down move was around 32%. Today, in 2022, the correction move from the top is 33.85%, and it already made a nice bounce in June with the bullish engulfing candle.  So, there is a pretty good possibility, that the bottom was already set and we could enter the accumulation phase here. However, in case the current support is lost, we could easily drop to the prices before the covid crash. 
FOREXCOM:NAS100
by CryptoDrakkar
AAPL , Advanced Trade Setup - Apple Spread Option AnalysisFor Monday, Aug. 8th 📉 We are looking to position ourselves into Apple (AAPL) for short term DOWNSIDE MOVEMENT. - We will be most likely Selling Calls to benefit from this position. We would also consider a Bear-Call Spreads, or Bear-Put Spreads. (These are types of spread options, sometimes referred to as Vertical Spreads, and Credit/Debit Spreads. If you have never heard of these, they are similar to options, but lower risk with a set max profit. These differ from traditional Calls & Puts, by not needing to move for them to close successfully. If we use apple as an example, we are going to do a Bear-Call Spread for $164, with a day expiration. If apple is $164 on the dot, or less we close the trade with max profit. - 👨🏼‍🏫 These Spreads, both the Bear-Put & Bear-Call are placed the same way. You will sell a Put or Call for the lower stock value, and at the same time buy a Put or Call respectively, for the higher value stock price.) For this route, we are doing a Bear- Call Spread for August 26, for $162.5 - $165. ❗We will be closing the position, or putting a Stop-Loss to close in profit once the trade is at %50 ROI - For those deciding to go the Option Puts, we suggest going 30 days out, @ $162.5-$165 Strike. We suggest reading below and considering why an expiration up to 45-60 days away could lead to more profit if taking the Traditional Put route . 🛣️ For our route, we will be SELLING CALLS for the Strike Prices of $165 & $ 162.5, both EXPIRING August 26th . 📋 BREAKDOWN We feel that AAPL will be peaking and rounding out this weekend. We can see this happening Wednesday-Friday, but we are so confident in this trade succeeding, we will be putting half our position in on Monday. Apple we think has a high probability to fall a minimum of 4.8% over the next 3 weeks, with it initiating this week. With September being the worst trading month of the year, we can see this precipitating well longer than the 5 weeks we stated, and going further than our nearly 5 % predicted drop.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by VirlVideo
Crypto Market Update BTCUSDTMARKET ANALYSIS: Market Cap.: $1,035,399,793,513 24h Volume: $86,171,585,363 BTC Dominance: 39.8% ETH Dominance: 20.1% 🔸BK® Health Standard: 3.81 (1 to 10) 🔸BK® Sentiment: -31.28% (-100% to 100%) ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ BINANCE ANALYSIS (BTC pairs): Top Gainers 1. STG: +105% 2. SANTOS: +21% 3. RAD: +17% Top Losers 1. QLC: -12% 2. YFII: -11% 3. GTC: -11% BINANCE FUTURES: Top Gainers 1. TRBUSDT: +5.57% 2. KNCUSDT: +4.14% Top Losers 1. GTCUSDT: -18,73% 2. FILUSDT: -18.10% LARGEST VOLUME (24h) 1. ETH/BTC (10,277 BTC) 2. ETC/BTC (1,110 BTC) DAILY OUTLOOK Both BTC and ETH market dominance have dropped slightly, with the latest high volume drop in price action for most alts in the market. BTC and ETH have reached new higher time frame lows, and could be about to head lower if we don’t see bullish volume starting to kick in.
by MetaFutures
A Bearish Call On Financial Markets and The Global Economy China/Europe/EM: The UK and the entirety of Europe are in trouble. The UK now experiencing double-digit inflation and to make matters worse they are facing extreme weather and an energy shortage going into the winter. All the while Putin's war is complicating European energy supply and political ties even further. China is experiencing civil unrest, mostly thanks to an ugly property crisis. China also is experiencing lower-than-expected GDP growth. China's economy slowing has large implications given its massive presence in global trade. Emerging markets are struggling partly due to an incredibly strong dollar as well as a tight global food/energy supply. US: The US housing market is in a recession with 6 straight months of declining sales and more importantly a monthly decrease in median home prices for the first time in years (the housing market gets hit first by rising rates… remember 08?). US consumer credit I.e., debt levels, are through the roof. Signaling that the consumer might not be as strong as market commentators are saying. Layoffs are increasing steadily, while inflation is staying high. I am bothered to see the number of peak inflation calls after just ONE MONTH of zero gains in headline inflation. The FED is now in a lose-lose scenario where they can continue to aggressively tighten and bring down this wildly levered up global economy or back out and try to save the issue for a later date. The latter would cause additions to the size of their already immense balance sheet and create an ultra-severe recession later down the line. Either way, the recent rate hikes have not at all been fully felt by markets, and add on the possibility that the FED truly commits to QT, then a few quarters down the line we will start to see a serious weakening of market conditions across the board (equities, bonds, real estate, you name it). Forecast: Risk assets globally are going to get decimated during the next several months of trading, especially low-quality speculative names. Crypto investors should prepare to see some nasty losses, BTC to 9800, and ETH to 575 seem attainable in the medium-term. S&P 500 will NOT make any substantial or sustainable gains over the 4300 mark, 3500 is my next low target. Nasdaq 100, like crypto, is in for a large selloff, next target: 10,200. VIX will rise substantially, and could easily double from current levels. The dollar will stay higher as US rates rally upward, likely well higher than markets currently have priced in. Some commodities will make new highs- nat gas- while others like oil are poised to depreciate modestly but remain historically high. Low/non-profitable, high debt companies- Wingstop and its zombie cohorts - are at high risk of bankruptcy in the coming quarters. Widespread bankruptcies are on the horizon. Things look a little too good to be true right now in financial markets… well that's because they are. On the bright side, this bear market bounce of the past 60ish days has provided a good opportunity to exit risk assets, load up on cash and begin to add on to short positions. As always this is not financial advice. Good luck!
ECONOMICS:USCCR
by Gooby_Trades
3
Between BlackRock and a TornadoThe connection between traditional finance and crypto is more closely linked than ever before as institutional demand for our treasured asset class rises rapidly. Last week we saw BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager with approximately $8.5 billion under management, endorse bitcoin by offering a spot bitcoin private trust to their U.S-based investors. Being the largest asset manager in the world, it could be likely that all of their competitors will quickly follow suit to ensure they also offer the capability to their clients. To provide additional access, BlackRock also partnered with Coinbase to provide infrastructure for their institutional clients to invest in crypto assets. BlackRock’s industry leading portfolio management software, Aladdin, is used by over 200 of the world’s largest institutional investors and manages over $21 trillion in assets. Aladdin and Coinbase will combine forces to offer a seamless portfolio management system for crypto, with Coinbase handling the execution and custody of the assets whilst Aladdin will handle the portfolio management aspects all through the Aladdin interface. It could be argued this is a major step in proving the legitimacy of bitcoin, especially with BlackRock being the main influencer on ESG investing. It additionally showcases the demand for exposure to the asset from BlackRock’s institutional clients. Tornado Cash – the popular mixing service that enables on-chain privacy – came under heavy fire last week from governments globally. The US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) sanctioned the protocol – leading to any American using the site breaking sanction laws. The sanction was argued due to the allegedly high number of illicit funds being laundered through the protocol and to prevent hacker groups, such as the Lazarus Group, from laundering stolen crypto funds. Dutch authorities arrested one of the protocol’s developers and have stated they will take further action against DAOs that may enable money laundering. Could this be the start of the war on Decentralised Finance (DeFi)? The implications of being linked to, or seen facilitating on-chain activity, with a wallet in connection with Tornado Cash have also prompted “decentralised” protocols to ban addresses from using their services to remain compliant with regulatory bodies. Due to the transparency and accessibility of crypto, any individual can send anything to any wallet address, with the owner unable to stop their wallet from receiving transactions. The banning of Tornado Cash sparked an onslaught of withdrawals from the protocol to famous personas’ wallets, such as Jimmy Fallon and Dave Chappelle, leading to them having broken sanctions laws and being punishable for up to 30 years in prison… technically speaking. Aave, the popular lending and borrowing protocol, banned the wallet of the founder of Tron, Justin Sun, as he was sent funds from Tornado Cash by the same unknown entity. The act of Aave banning wallet addresses has created a stir in the crypto community, with many individuals doubting how decentralised these protocols actually are with their ability to intervene and ban wallet addresses. Some commentators have argued the act of government submission completely contradicts the ethos of crypto and DeFi. Coin Centre, the crypto privacy advocacy group, has stated they will challenge the sanction as it “exceeds statutory authority”. Ever since crypto began, nation-states using crypto for their own benefit was seen as the final boss before global adoption. Last week Iran funded an import worth $10 million using crypto. Their usage has been instigated due to them being the second most sanctioned country in the world behind Russia – limiting their ability to trade with other nations using the existing banking systems. One of the country’s ministers also stated that “By the end of September, the use of cryptocurrencies and smart contracts will be widely used in foreign trade with target countries.” The increased usage of crypto from states like Iran could be seen as a double-edged sword. It demonstrates the key tenets of sovereignty and impartiality where every individual should have the right to transfer value. However, depending on your geopolitical preference it could be deemed only useful by those not accepted into the system and arguably the wrong people. This use case increasing in prevalence could also give further credence to governments to ban and regulate crypto with the argument and trump card of national security. Conversely, Ukraine has used crypto to raise well in excess of $100 million in donations to aid their fight against Russia – which would likely be viewed as a positive by the same people who condemn its usage by Iran. As with any technology, the usage and the users define its morality, despite the technology always remaining impartial. When analysing price action, these developments have not had a major impact on the price of bitcoin. From a technical perspective, bitcoin is positioned between a rock and a hard place in an ascending channel, with the $24,500 level proving hard to crack. The 100-Day moving average is also hovering at this level. A higher timeframe close above this level could be a strong indicator that the rally could continue with the next target likely being the $28,000 level where 2021 yearly candle opened and where we consolidated over summer 2021. Rejection from here could see us retest lower levels and the 200-week moving average that is situated around $23,000. However, with fear and greed reaching the highest levels seen in the past 4 months and Dogecoin and Shiba Inu pumping hard, these are telltale signs that an interim market top may be forming. The S&P 500 is also touching some strong resistance around the $4,300 level and with even further institutional involvement and intertwined portfolio management systems, rejection from this level could be the catalyst for a return to lower levels – with crypto potentially taking the hardest hit.
by Coinrule
$IWM 280 by end of 2024?Market starting to show signs of a final melt up ? Just offering this bull case, of course we could certainly see 120 before 280, but 200 weekly MA has offered support in the past followed by strong moves up, less 2008 financial crisis and 2020 covid crash. So I guess real question for the bear case would be - what is the black swan event ? Because for certain Inflation, war , etc. are just headwinds. A true BLACK SWAN EVENT is needed it seems.. what will it be then ? My bias is long ... for now :)
AMEX:IWMLong
by FriscoTrades
Resistance to ChangeJuly was a reassuring month for crypto, and financial markets in general, stimulated by the Federal Reserve deciding a 0.75% rate hike was sufficient to slow inflation. They also stated the 2.25-2.50% federal fund rate is now neutral – no longer contributing to growth or contraction within the economy. This caused markets to rally on the expectation there may not be many further rate hikes and the possibility the worst may be behind us. Last year, July marked the bottom of the summer correction and the start of the rally that resulted in new all-time highs. This year, July saw a 16.6% monthly gain for bitcoin – the highest monthly gain since October 2021. This was outshone by ether’s monumental monthly gain of approximately 57% – the largest since January’s 2021’s 78% gain and the fifth best month over the past 5 years. The ETH/BTC chart conveys this spectacle well. Ether appreciated by 28% against BTC since the start of June – demonstrating the increased upside Ethereum has compared to its larger counterpart. However, last week it was Ethereum Classic (ETC), that saw the greatest gains. ETC saw a 94% surge within 4 days, with price still trading within 20% of the high. It is suspected this was caused by The Ethereum Merge that will result in Ethereum moving from proof-of-stake to proof-of-work (POW). This will render the Ethereum miners’ expensive equipment, used to solve the mathematical puzzles used in POW, obsolete and the miners’ $18 billion annual revenue disappearing. On the other hand, Ethereum Classic will remain proof-of-work, driving Ethereum miners to potentially put their equipment to use securing the Ethereum Classic chain. However, Ethereum Classic’s mining revenue amounts to only 3% of Ethereum’s. AntPool, one of the largest mining pools and an affiliate of Bitmain, a large mining equipment manufacturer, announced it would invest $10 million to develop and create new applications on the Ethereum Classic ecosystem in an attempt to increase the adoption of the blockchain, and the sales of their rigs. Bitmain also stated they will accept payments for their machinery in ETC. Will Ethereum’s fundamentalists win? On August 2nd, ETC total value locked (TVL) sat at $230,000 and transaction volume was $162 million compared to ETH’s $57 billion TVL and $3.8 billion transaction volume. The loyalists will require some serious network effects to capture any market share. Fidelity has stated that bitcoin will be the only 401(k) crypto product they will offer with a 20% allocation limit per portfolio. It could be argued that this is a huge step in the right direction with a behemoth asset manager, such as Fidelity, believing bitcoin is a suitable product for retirement plans. On the other hand, it also demonstrates the rest of the space is generally regarded as unproven and untrusted. This opinion was echoed by three anti-crypto American senators this week who deemed Fidelity’s move to include bitcoin as “immensely troubling”. Institutional hesitancy towards altcoins can be understood when considering institution’s risk aversion. The nature of the nascent crypto space where the “build fast and break things” approach, which can sometimes be taken advantage of, is also a hinderance. Incidents such as the $190 million exploit on popular token bridge Nomad that occurred this week is case in point. Solana also experienced issues this week with popular Solana wallets, Phantom, Slope and Trust Wallet, being exploited with their users’ funds being drained from over 8,000 wallets. After the collapse of CeFi and now these breaches on hot wallets, crypto asset security has become an even bigger priority for all crypto users. Ledger, the popular hardware wallet provider, has perfectly timed its rumoured discussions of seeking to raise an additional $100 million in funding. It is rumoured the round will be at a higher valuation than their previous $380 million raise at a $1.5 billion valuation last June – showcasing the growing demand for protecting crypto wealth even during this market downturn. Thankfully, resistance to change can provide profitable opportunities as the herd stays away from “risky” assets. Howard Marks details in his investment bible, “The Most Important Thing”, that the highest risk-adjusted returns are obtained when buying assets that are considered “not fully understood, fundamentally questionable on the surface, controversial, unseemly or scary, deemed inappropriate for “respectable” portfolios or recently the subject of disinvestment”. We wonder what asset class meets these criteria…
by Coinrule
Possible next move in SPXHi everyone. Today I'm gonna talk about SPX. In this moments the price have 2 posibilitties: Option A: We have a double bottom pattern and the price will go to the level of pattern and then we need to wait a intentional canddle who confirms the change pattern. In this point it's good enter to long (more risk) Option B: The price will go to te resistance and then will fall to the support (here we can enter with a short). In the support we need to wait if the price will go down or bounce to the resistance again (good opportunity to enter long) Thanks for read this and leave me a comments or questions and if you like this analysis, follow me. See you soon !
SP:SPX
by huraz
Bitcoin: market overview updateAs mentioned in our previous overview, there were 3 possible scenarios for market development. As we can see, 4 days later, the price is in the correction . This is scenario 2. This correction wave formed the new resistance level with the borders of $23,900 - $24,800. After the correction comes to an end, the buying opportunity will appear. It may happen even today. In this case the first target is that resistance, and if the market is strong, the price can move towards target #2 - the highs of June 7 - $31,965 - $31,400. If the correction continues, the market can move towards the nearest Daily support - $20,800 - $21,220. But the market is in the uptrend and we should look for buying opportunities.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by JIexa1701
The Merge Trade Ethereum’s rise from the ashes over the past two weeks has demonstrated why you should not underestimate bear market rallies. Prior to its explosive surge, covering over 50% in a week, the second largest crypto asset was tracking bitcoin’s moves closely. Now it appears to be the one leading the rest of the market and showcases the market’s shift to a more risk-on stance. Last week saw the second week of inflows to Ethereum crypto funds, investors predominantly being institutional investors, totalling $5 million. This is a major shift compared to the past three months where there were 11 consecutive weeks of outflows. The catalyst for Ethereum’s upside is assumed to be the news relating to the Ethereum Merge which includes the transition from a proof-of-work to a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism. A timeline was spoken during an open developer call, detailing the Merge could be expected September 19th. The Merge will result in Ethereum becoming deflationary due to annual issuance being slashed by 90%. This increasingly supports the narrative that ether is a growing store of value. Investors have caught onto this prospect, leading to the asset being argued undervalued as future supply is diminished. Overall, the market’s strength has been impressive, especially considering the higher-than-expected 9.1% CPI data prompting potentially further future rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. However, something to keep in mind is the ferocity of bear market rallies being created by short sellers getting squeezed. This leads to them being forced to buy back their short positions to prevent further losses causing further buying pressure and resulting in another cycle of short sellers buying back. Last week centralised exchanges recorded their lowest trade volumes since December 2020, leading to order book liquidity being thin and volatility being heightened - creating the perfect storm for a short squeeze. On Monday, Ethereum’s move to over $1,600 saw liquidations of nearly $500 million within a 24-hour period. However, Ethereum has increasing competition to be the chain leading the pack, in terms of global crypto adoption. In relation to active addresses, Solana has also been dominating the battle for layer one supremacy. In June, Solana registered 32.23 million active addresses compared to Ethereum’s 12.93 million. Over the past several weeks we have been seeing the question: How will crypto attract 1 billion users over the coming years? This has been answered with crypto-native phones – the first to be announced was Solana’s Saga followed by Polygon and HTC. These devices will be specifically designed to interact with decentralised applications, with the user experience of dealing with self-custody wallets and signing for transactions being substantially improved. Additionally, the current app store high fee infrastructure which disincentives developers to build apps will be overhauled with Solana’s Mobile Stack. This could lead to improved decentralised applications with further use cases, better refinement and increased accessibility - causing more people to participate in crypto. From a technical perspective, Ethereum has broken out from the month-long range of $1,050 to $1,250 and is facing resistance around $1,600. The true test will be penetrating the $1,700 key level that marked the summer 2021 lows. The 100-day moving average also looms around $1,900 and will be another test if there is sufficient demand to outweigh the uncertain macroeconomic environment and continue on our upward trajectory. If rejected from this level the move could be rendered a bearish retest of our once strong support and we could retrace lower back into an area of demand. News of Tesla liquidating some of their bitcoin position is not helping the bulls. Their earnings report detailed they sold 75% of their bitcoin holdings during Q2, totalling $936 million, at an average price of approximately $29,000. However, Musk emphasised this is not an indication of bitcoin's fragility but rather Tesla improving its liquidity in light of Covid shutdowns in China and other economic factors.   Reaching the fabled $1 Trillion total crypto market cap level is a strong indication of the resilience of the sector. $1 Trillion is also the market cap of silver, and when compared showcases how small crypto is relative to other asset classes. There are many bullish catalysts on the horizon for crypto, the Ethereum Merge, the Bitcoin Halving and crypto native mobile devices potentially accelerating global adoption to 1 billion users and beyond. Will these tailwinds be able to fight the macroeconomic headwinds of the likely incoming increased interest rates and recession? The past week has shown promising signs, but the real test will be if bitcoin can reclaim and hold the 200-week moving average - continuing to make higher lows. If you are long-term bullish on the space the reverse clause of whatever is ahead should be appreciated. Rejection and a return to lower prices meaning more time to accumulate at lower valuations, or more positively, the market recovering and portfolio values appreciating.
by Coinrule
Market Analysis - SPY PerformanceIn this post, I will attempt to analyze where the market currently stands, and present both a strong bull case and a strong bear case. Bull case: First, the chart: The chart above shows the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) on a 4h timeframe. The yellow and orange lines are exponential moving averages that represent the MA Exp Ribbon. As noted in a prior post, the MA Exp Ribbon acts as resistance when price hits it from below. In order to pierce through the ribbon, and make a bullish breakout, a candle must do so on high volume and with strong momentum. On the bottom is the Stochastic RSI oscillator, which helps measure momentum. For the first time, in a long time, the 4h chart of SPY has seen price near the top of MA Exp Ribbon with strong momentum building to push through it. It is quite likely that the price will break through. Second, the VIX: As the chart below shows, the VIX has broken down from the trend that it held during its most volatile period over the second quarter. Just be cautious and patient because the VIX has not yet broken below its weekly MA Exp Ribbon. Third, the Advance-Decline Line (ADL): The advance-decline line has broken out and is absolutely soaring. This is possibly one of the most bullish-looking charts out there. The advance-decline line is a technical indicator that plots the difference between the number of advancing and declining stocks on a daily basis. The advance-decline line is used to show market sentiment, as it tells traders whether there are more stocks rising or falling. It is used to confirm price trends in major indexes, and can also warn of reversals when divergence occurs. Right now there is a strong bullish divergence and the major indices have yet to break out. Seasonality: The current period (mid- to late-July) is typically bullish from a seasonality perspective: charts.equityclock.com . Indeed, there was a bull run during this period even in 2008 during the Great Recession. Bear case: (Warning this part is scary - but remember never to invest or trade based on emotion) Yield curve inversion: The 10-year minus the 2-year Treasury yield is used to detect an impending recession. When the 2-year yield rises above the 10-year yield that creates a yield curve inversion, which can often indicate that a recession is coming. In essence, it creates the presumption that shorter-term yields are higher than longer-term yields because we're in the late phase of an economic cycle when the economy is overheating, and that soon, the economy will slow down. Right now the yield curve inversion is very steep. In fact, just last week, the yield curve inversion actually steepened to a level that was even worse than what we saw before the Great Recession. Perhaps even more alarming is the extremely odd fact that the 10-year minus the 3-month Treasury is NOT indicating a recession. The federal reserve uses the 10-year minus the 3-month as a more reliable indicator for detecting an impending recession than the 10-year minus the 2-year. Right now that indicator is only showing a 6% chance of a recession in the year ahead: www.newyorkfed.org However, there's a major problem that throws into question the reliability of that indicator at the current time, and that problem is: The Rate of Change in the 10-year yield is off the charts. Look at the 10-year yield Rate of Change on a 3-month basis: There's no way the 3-month yield could possibly invert relative the 10-year yield when the latter's rate of change is off-the-charts, unless the former's rate of change was even more off-the-charts (as we see with the 2-year, which is why the 2-year was able to invert against the 10-year). Here's the 2-year yield rate of change: Therefore, the 10-year minus the 3-month may be showing no inversion, not because the chance of a recession is actually low, but more likely because the indicator itself is no longer working because the rate of change in the 10-year yield is so parabolic. The 10-year minus 3-month indicator only reliably works if the assumption that the 10-year yield rate of change will be relatively stable compared to the 3-month yield rate of change holds true. In the current environment, that assumption does not hold true. We've never seen this kind of rate of change in the 10-year yield during the period for which this indicator has been used to predict recessions. The 3-month yield would have inverted against the 10-year yield months ago, if the 10-year yield had remained relatively stable as it has during the past several decades. However, the 3-month yield cannot invert against something moving so fast to the upside. This is just simple math. This is extremely worrisome because many people are using this tool as a reason to believe that no recession will occur, when in fact, the tool has likely broken. In the scientific community, we know that a tool only works if its validity and reliability can be established. Validity refers to the extent to which the tool actually measures what it is being used to measure, and reliability refers to the extent to which the tool consistently makes accurate measurements. In this case, the reliability of the 10Y-3M tool has broken down because the assumption that the 10-year yield would always be more stable relative to the 3-month yield is not true this time around. This time is indeed different... So I leave you with these strong bull and strong bear considerations, and it is for you to determine how you want to play the market. Remember the rules of good trading!
AMEX:SPYLong
by SpyMasterTrades
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