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Possible next move in SPXHi everyone. Today I'm gonna talk about SPX. In this moments the price have 2 posibilitties: Option A: We have a double bottom pattern and the price will go to the level of pattern and then we need to wait a intentional canddle who confirms the change pattern. In this point it's good enter to long (more risk) Option B: The price will go to te resistance and then will fall to the support (here we can enter with a short). In the support we need to wait if the price will go down or bounce to the resistance again (good opportunity to enter long) Thanks for read this and leave me a comments or questions and if you like this analysis, follow me. See you soon !
SP:SPX
by huraz
Bitcoin: market overview updateAs mentioned in our previous overview, there were 3 possible scenarios for market development. As we can see, 4 days later, the price is in the correction . This is scenario 2. This correction wave formed the new resistance level with the borders of $23,900 - $24,800. After the correction comes to an end, the buying opportunity will appear. It may happen even today. In this case the first target is that resistance, and if the market is strong, the price can move towards target #2 - the highs of June 7 - $31,965 - $31,400. If the correction continues, the market can move towards the nearest Daily support - $20,800 - $21,220. But the market is in the uptrend and we should look for buying opportunities.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by JIexa1701
The Merge Trade Ethereum’s rise from the ashes over the past two weeks has demonstrated why you should not underestimate bear market rallies. Prior to its explosive surge, covering over 50% in a week, the second largest crypto asset was tracking bitcoin’s moves closely. Now it appears to be the one leading the rest of the market and showcases the market’s shift to a more risk-on stance. Last week saw the second week of inflows to Ethereum crypto funds, investors predominantly being institutional investors, totalling $5 million. This is a major shift compared to the past three months where there were 11 consecutive weeks of outflows. The catalyst for Ethereum’s upside is assumed to be the news relating to the Ethereum Merge which includes the transition from a proof-of-work to a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism. A timeline was spoken during an open developer call, detailing the Merge could be expected September 19th. The Merge will result in Ethereum becoming deflationary due to annual issuance being slashed by 90%. This increasingly supports the narrative that ether is a growing store of value. Investors have caught onto this prospect, leading to the asset being argued undervalued as future supply is diminished. Overall, the market’s strength has been impressive, especially considering the higher-than-expected 9.1% CPI data prompting potentially further future rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. However, something to keep in mind is the ferocity of bear market rallies being created by short sellers getting squeezed. This leads to them being forced to buy back their short positions to prevent further losses causing further buying pressure and resulting in another cycle of short sellers buying back. Last week centralised exchanges recorded their lowest trade volumes since December 2020, leading to order book liquidity being thin and volatility being heightened - creating the perfect storm for a short squeeze. On Monday, Ethereum’s move to over $1,600 saw liquidations of nearly $500 million within a 24-hour period. However, Ethereum has increasing competition to be the chain leading the pack, in terms of global crypto adoption. In relation to active addresses, Solana has also been dominating the battle for layer one supremacy. In June, Solana registered 32.23 million active addresses compared to Ethereum’s 12.93 million. Over the past several weeks we have been seeing the question: How will crypto attract 1 billion users over the coming years? This has been answered with crypto-native phones – the first to be announced was Solana’s Saga followed by Polygon and HTC. These devices will be specifically designed to interact with decentralised applications, with the user experience of dealing with self-custody wallets and signing for transactions being substantially improved. Additionally, the current app store high fee infrastructure which disincentives developers to build apps will be overhauled with Solana’s Mobile Stack. This could lead to improved decentralised applications with further use cases, better refinement and increased accessibility - causing more people to participate in crypto. From a technical perspective, Ethereum has broken out from the month-long range of $1,050 to $1,250 and is facing resistance around $1,600. The true test will be penetrating the $1,700 key level that marked the summer 2021 lows. The 100-day moving average also looms around $1,900 and will be another test if there is sufficient demand to outweigh the uncertain macroeconomic environment and continue on our upward trajectory. If rejected from this level the move could be rendered a bearish retest of our once strong support and we could retrace lower back into an area of demand. News of Tesla liquidating some of their bitcoin position is not helping the bulls. Their earnings report detailed they sold 75% of their bitcoin holdings during Q2, totalling $936 million, at an average price of approximately $29,000. However, Musk emphasised this is not an indication of bitcoin's fragility but rather Tesla improving its liquidity in light of Covid shutdowns in China and other economic factors.   Reaching the fabled $1 Trillion total crypto market cap level is a strong indication of the resilience of the sector. $1 Trillion is also the market cap of silver, and when compared showcases how small crypto is relative to other asset classes. There are many bullish catalysts on the horizon for crypto, the Ethereum Merge, the Bitcoin Halving and crypto native mobile devices potentially accelerating global adoption to 1 billion users and beyond. Will these tailwinds be able to fight the macroeconomic headwinds of the likely incoming increased interest rates and recession? The past week has shown promising signs, but the real test will be if bitcoin can reclaim and hold the 200-week moving average - continuing to make higher lows. If you are long-term bullish on the space the reverse clause of whatever is ahead should be appreciated. Rejection and a return to lower prices meaning more time to accumulate at lower valuations, or more positively, the market recovering and portfolio values appreciating.
by Coinrule
Market Analysis - SPY PerformanceIn this post, I will attempt to analyze where the market currently stands, and present both a strong bull case and a strong bear case. Bull case: First, the chart: The chart above shows the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) on a 4h timeframe. The yellow and orange lines are exponential moving averages that represent the MA Exp Ribbon. As noted in a prior post, the MA Exp Ribbon acts as resistance when price hits it from below. In order to pierce through the ribbon, and make a bullish breakout, a candle must do so on high volume and with strong momentum. On the bottom is the Stochastic RSI oscillator, which helps measure momentum. For the first time, in a long time, the 4h chart of SPY has seen price near the top of MA Exp Ribbon with strong momentum building to push through it. It is quite likely that the price will break through. Second, the VIX: As the chart below shows, the VIX has broken down from the trend that it held during its most volatile period over the second quarter. Just be cautious and patient because the VIX has not yet broken below its weekly MA Exp Ribbon. Third, the Advance-Decline Line (ADL): The advance-decline line has broken out and is absolutely soaring. This is possibly one of the most bullish-looking charts out there. The advance-decline line is a technical indicator that plots the difference between the number of advancing and declining stocks on a daily basis. The advance-decline line is used to show market sentiment, as it tells traders whether there are more stocks rising or falling. It is used to confirm price trends in major indexes, and can also warn of reversals when divergence occurs. Right now there is a strong bullish divergence and the major indices have yet to break out. Seasonality: The current period (mid- to late-July) is typically bullish from a seasonality perspective: charts.equityclock.com . Indeed, there was a bull run during this period even in 2008 during the Great Recession. Bear case: (Warning this part is scary - but remember never to invest or trade based on emotion) Yield curve inversion: The 10-year minus the 2-year Treasury yield is used to detect an impending recession. When the 2-year yield rises above the 10-year yield that creates a yield curve inversion, which can often indicate that a recession is coming. In essence, it creates the presumption that shorter-term yields are higher than longer-term yields because we're in the late phase of an economic cycle when the economy is overheating, and that soon, the economy will slow down. Right now the yield curve inversion is very steep. In fact, just last week, the yield curve inversion actually steepened to a level that was even worse than what we saw before the Great Recession. Perhaps even more alarming is the extremely odd fact that the 10-year minus the 3-month Treasury is NOT indicating a recession. The federal reserve uses the 10-year minus the 3-month as a more reliable indicator for detecting an impending recession than the 10-year minus the 2-year. Right now that indicator is only showing a 6% chance of a recession in the year ahead: www.newyorkfed.org However, there's a major problem that throws into question the reliability of that indicator at the current time, and that problem is: The Rate of Change in the 10-year yield is off the charts. Look at the 10-year yield Rate of Change on a 3-month basis: There's no way the 3-month yield could possibly invert relative the 10-year yield when the latter's rate of change is off-the-charts, unless the former's rate of change was even more off-the-charts (as we see with the 2-year, which is why the 2-year was able to invert against the 10-year). Here's the 2-year yield rate of change: Therefore, the 10-year minus the 3-month may be showing no inversion, not because the chance of a recession is actually low, but more likely because the indicator itself is no longer working because the rate of change in the 10-year yield is so parabolic. The 10-year minus 3-month indicator only reliably works if the assumption that the 10-year yield rate of change will be relatively stable compared to the 3-month yield rate of change holds true. In the current environment, that assumption does not hold true. We've never seen this kind of rate of change in the 10-year yield during the period for which this indicator has been used to predict recessions. The 3-month yield would have inverted against the 10-year yield months ago, if the 10-year yield had remained relatively stable as it has during the past several decades. However, the 3-month yield cannot invert against something moving so fast to the upside. This is just simple math. This is extremely worrisome because many people are using this tool as a reason to believe that no recession will occur, when in fact, the tool has likely broken. In the scientific community, we know that a tool only works if its validity and reliability can be established. Validity refers to the extent to which the tool actually measures what it is being used to measure, and reliability refers to the extent to which the tool consistently makes accurate measurements. In this case, the reliability of the 10Y-3M tool has broken down because the assumption that the 10-year yield would always be more stable relative to the 3-month yield is not true this time around. This time is indeed different... So I leave you with these strong bull and strong bear considerations, and it is for you to determine how you want to play the market. Remember the rules of good trading!
AMEX:SPYLong
by SpyMasterTrades
11
BTCUSD weekly chart analysis. Trying to identify crucial levels for a bounce. I do not know where the bottom is and I am not trying to guess it either. I am however trying to identify potential areas that could give the market a push up and take it from there. Trade 1 level at a time and see what the market gives us. I do not see how this can be a reversal point as the issues that drove the market down, are still in play and with potential for more downside in the near future. The direction of the trend is downwards. Will need to see a change of market structure to confirm a reversal. Take it one level at a time and identify support and resistance. Trade those levels until it breaks to the upside or downside. There is no need for any kind of FOMO. It is ok to miss a trade and I would prefer that to losing money. You do not have to trade everyday. Only if one presents itself. Capital Conservation is the most important factor in this market. DO NOT listen to the twitter crews that always scream bullish. Listen to real traders and analysts. Many out there that do free market analysis. You do not need to pay 1000s for courses or indicators. Everything you need is out there for free. If anyone needs material on charting, message me and I will be happy to share what I have with you. Very volatile market so capital preservation is the primary goal here. Take small profits and compound it. Find strong areas of support and resistance and trade accordingly. Trade the range and not the news. Inflation is high and so there should be no surprise each time to FED speaks, but there always seems to be some emotional sell off or pump each time. So watch out for those. The biggest transfer of wealth of our times is happening at the moment, so make sure you fall on the right side. Do not over complicate things. Stick to your levels and do not fall for "pumpamentals" Remember this: YOU DO NOT NEED TO FIND THE EXACT BOTTOM OR TOP. Just need to find a good entry to take some money out of the market each time. As a great trader once told me, when everything is bullish , look for a reason to be bearish (and vice versa) and you will never get surprised. Heard mentality will get you crushed in this market, so do not blindly follow any signals. Help yourself by learning some charting. Simply learning to identify support and resistance will save you some money. Take it one step at a time and you will get there. There will always be a new indicator or magical new tool that will promise the world. Remember this, most indicators are reactive tools and will give you a signal once a significant part of the move is already done for. Everything you need to trade can be found on tradingview and they are available for free. Many of your fellow traders have worked hard and have made many of their tools available to you for free. You do not need to spend 1000s to buy an indicator that will give you your dreams. If this is your first bear market experience, hold steady and preserve your capital at all cost. Do not guess the bottom or short the bottom. When you make it to the other side of this market, it will change your life. You would have learnt a lot of things that will help you understand the market and will help you make better financial decisions in the future. Final note. Everyone makes money in the market, but only a few manage to keep it. Be one of the few and not the many. Good Luck with your trades and lets try to find ways to help each other to find a life of financial freedom.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by MikePillai
The bearish scenario is still more likelyHello to all members of TradingView and my followers. Well, Bitcoin failed to breach the $20,500 resistance area and thus started the decline. There was immediate support on the downside near the $20,000 level, which failed to stop Bitcoin. Bitcoin's next major support is near the 50% retracement fib at $19,568. The price could now fall sharply due to the recent rise from $18,738 to $20,450. The price may drop to the $18,720 level. Thus, in my opinion, the bearish scenario is still more likely, and yesterday's green candle still does not give any confirmation of the immediate rise of the market. If it is helpful to you, please like it. If you have a comment, I'll be happy to know. Respectfully.
by MonoCoinSignal
59
DOA trading Strategy - SPY#SPY - For my long term people! I know a lot of yall are asking me about my personal long term positions. When I did my last long term projection of SPY back in March 2022 I said that SPY will hit $390 before June We hit $383 May 2022 then bounced hard ✅ I've been out of my long term since March 2022 most of you probably remember that I've been shorting the market since end of March 2022 when we caught the 2nd drop from double top back in March. I'm getting ready to enter on my long term if we hold at $360-$365 area From what I'm seeing now, we are currently getting ready for a 3rd impulsive wave, and just finishing the corrective wave. We should hit $360-365 before end of September Then if we hold, I'm going shopping for long term!
AMEX:SPYShort
by directoptionalerts
AKRO/USDTin the previous educational post, I posted about Rising Wedge patterns and in this post, I have explained Falling Wedge Patterns. ( Falling Wedge is the opposite of Rising Wedge pattern; for every chart pattern there are opposite patterns excluding some.) Falling Wedges are Bullish Patterns and it generates a bullish signal, Falling wedge patterns forms with Lower highs and lower lows. The Falling Wedge pattern forms in two shapes same as the Rising Wedge; If the Falling wedge pattern forms in an uptrend it will make a continuation and if the Falling wedge pattern forms in a downtrend it will make a reversal. The Lower highs and the lower lows along make a trend resistance and trend support. When a breakout occurs upside, the price breaks the trend resistance line. In a Falling wedge, a breakout occurs upside 60 to 70% of the time. To confirm a true breakout, we can take the help of Volume and other indicators. A true breakout will have a more significant volume than usual.
ALong
by majidalisabir
8
Terra FalloutArguably the number one saying to always avoid uttering in investing is “This time is different”. Usually, it is related to overly optimistic bullish expectations of future market highs due to global adoption finally taking place. Ironically, as this cycle continues it is proving to be different… In all prior market cycles, bitcoin never rested or went below the previous all-time high during following bear markets. Last weekend, however, we saw bitcoin cascade through the previous all-time high via a savage 6% decline within a 5-minute candle – reaching a low of approximately $17,600. A potential catalyst for the sudden drop was significant outflows from bitcoin funds on Friday 17th June, with the Canadian Purpose Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) experiencing its investors redeem approximately 24,500 bitcoin or 51% of its holdings. The majority of ETF investors are institutions, with the inflows and outflows from these funds giving a good gauge of the institutional sentiment around bitcoin and risk assets in general. The drop was also contributed to by the developing contagion from the Terra debacle. The demise of Terra has continued to claim victims who just a few months ago were renowned as being market leaders in their fields. Most notably this includes Celcius and Three Arrows Capital (3AC). These two previously regarded behemoths have come under heavy fire from the declining market prices. The depressed prices have further impacted their low liquidity and highly leveraged balance sheets. Celsius halted all $8 billion worth of deposits from being withdrawn from their platform and 3AC was allegedly liquidated by FTX, Deribit and Bitmex due to them failing to provide additional capital for their poorly performing leveraged positions. Voyager, a crypto exchange, was also affected by 3AC’s demise with them still being owed 15,250 bitcoin and $350 million by the fund. News of this caused Voyager’s stock to cascade 40% lower on Wednesday accompanied by their token depreciating by 25%. However, as one giant falls another grows. Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) has become somewhat of a liquidity-providing guardian angel for the crypto industry, with loans of $250 million to BlockFi, a centralised lending platform, and 15,000 bitcoin to Voyager via FTX and Alameda Research. Both of these entities SBF founded. FTX US has also utilised the depreciating market prices as an opportunity to sweeten their product offering through the acquisition of Embed Financial, an equities clearing firm that will provide custody and execution for FTX US’s newly launched feature to trade stocks – showcasing their eagerness to expand into alternative markets outside of crypto. Looking at the technical side, bitcoin appears to have found a range to consolidate within for the meantime, with support on the previous all-time high of approximately $19,800 and resistance around $21,300. Breaking out of the range, and making significant progress, may prove to be a challenge for bulls with the 200-week moving average looming overhead at around $23,300. The question on all traders’ minds is how long will this range hold and if $17,600 will be our local bottom for the foreseeable future? With the Federal Reserve’s Chairman Powell reiterating their hawkish stance and view for the increasing crypto regulation at Wednesday’s Senate Banking Committee hearing, it sounds like the potential relief we have seen over the past week should not be taken for granted. Additionally, further developments in the Terra fallout may be discovered further along the currently illiquid crypto path. This dark cloud will most likely keep all market participants with their tap-dancing shoes on and treading lightly as we further navigate these apocalyptic times.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Coinrule
future of BTC ( Is it possible to see zero? yes but...) I want to say that bitcoin may be zero, but let's use our previous data to see what is going to happen to bitcoin? We have to admit that we are in a downtrend that I think has come a long way but has not yet reached the end of the road and given the price history we can expect it to bother the holders again and it is normal when the BTC pair is The US dollar. In smaller timeframes, especially weekly with the loss of the moving average of 200, I, like many of you, am worried about the future of bitcoin, so I came to higher timeframes to see history in a bigger sight and the important prices (price ranges) that We have to be better able to monitor it. I do not give an opinion against the downward trend and I do not have a recommendation to buy yet, but within the limits specified in the chart, you can make your purchase with your own analysis, or if you have bitcoins, consider capital management in those areas. This cycle check is used only for estimation and has no signal for buying and selling. By starting to receive the signal in lower timeframes, you can decide to buy or sell in the specified ranges.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by parsajl1
6
Nifty hovering around critical support of 15050.Holding 15050 will be very critical for Nifty 50 in order to not fall totally into the bear grip. Not that Nifty isn't in bear grip already but falling below 15050 will be indication of real weakness which can take Nifty searching for supports which might be available only near 200 weeks EMA or there about. Critical Support Zone for Nifty or (Reversal zone 1) can be 15180 and 15050. Closing below 15050 would mean that critical support has been broken. Further Strong supports thereafter will be: 14692(Reversal Zone 2), 14356, 13945 and finally 200 Weeks EMA at 13767. (Reversal Zone 3). Once there is a strong reversal the resistances will be: 15949, 16529, 16912 and finally 17308. Whenever the next bull-run starts the new top will be around 20203. (Medium to long term out-look is still very positive).
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Cardano focus after support bounceWell, TradingView community, what an insane few days we have seen on the crypto markets. Some of the falls have just about been doomsday stuff. ETH, for instance, broke below 1100 today, and Bitcoin briefly moved below 21K. Solana's low retraced the entire 2020/21 run before buyers jumped back in today. So let's move to today's focus Cardano. The late May and early June price looked good, moving back above .66 before the latest bear raids kicked off. Five straight sessions saw 24% taken off the price and today looked no different as prices raced a further 9% lower. Buyers emerged into today's Asian session and, at this stage, have pulled 17% back since today’s low. This caught our attention from where the turnaround occurred, and it lined up very nicely with .4450 support. This could be a good sign as price continues to sit in its range and is not in a solid downtrend like many other top 10 coins. If buyers can hold out today and maintain a close above support, this could be good signs that buyers are trying to regain control. A close below support, and we will be back on the bear front. If buyers can hold support and a decent push higher, we will look for broader buying to show overall demand, and we will then look to see if buyers can break the top of the range to start suggesting that a new move higher could be developing. Good Trading
EIGHTCAP:ADAUSDLong
by Eightcap