Bitcoin (BTC) on the verge to break below $10kThe BTC/USD pair opened the new trading week with a volatile session during which we saw it moving in the $10,600-$10,200 range. It closed the day on Monday, September 9 at $10,297. On the next day we found it dropping even lower losing 2.4 percent of its value and closing at $10,070.
The $10,000 level was not quite stable during the past few weeks, still bulls were hoping to hold it for a longer period this time in order to consolidate and set the ground for further attacks of the mid-$10k and $11k levels.
The mid-week session on September 11 brought some stability as bitcoin erased some part of the loses from the previous session and climbed to $10,158.
If we fall below $10,000 I expect another test of $9,400. Given the fact we are already in September, returning to trading season I don't expect it to fall further down. The pessimistic scenario sees BTC at $9,100.
Marketanalysis
XAUUSD Longterm Outlook and ThoughtsJust testing out some new concepts, so I'm not 100% married to this outlook as it differs from my usual analysis, but regardless let's see what it tells us. Keep in mind when I make my targets (shown as BCD in pink), I expect the market to pivot within some range of that price (as indicated by the pink boxes), as is the case in all my charts.
We are currently in the midst of an uptrend which I see pivoting around $1665 (B in pink). So we can take some Buys up to around that price, but be weary of possibly at least one more small pullback on the way up that may take you out of your trade if your SL's are too tight. From here we can expect a leg down to around $1175 (C in pink). Since this itself will take a few years to play out, I don't think it's worth discussing the targets that are further out at this point in time. Let's see how it progresses.
Dax daily: 26 Aug 2019 Friday's session started relatively innocent. As per our expectations, Dax descended to hit our support zone of 11 759 and closed the gap. We also saw buyers attempting to regain control before the storm hit the markets. News had it that China retaliated on the US import taxes and to no surprise, Trump's swift reaction on Twitter caused even more havoc when he lifted the existing tariffs even more (including services industry) and ordered american companies to withdraw from China. Dax bears started to jump out of the window and retested the subject S/R zone after the initial plunge. Next bearish target was the following support at 11 560 which slowed down the price for a few hours just to drop even lower to close the week at 11 532.
Important zones
Resistance: 11 645, 11 707, 11 611
Support: 11 404
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
10:00 CEST - EUR - German Ifo Business Climate
All-day - G7 Meeting in France
Today's session hypothesis
For today, we estimate to see some correction of Friday's downfall. Ideally, the price could reach 11 611 - 11 645 levels which could work well for sellers to take the price towards the support around 11 404. Beware of today's news, especially some G7 Meeting after-tremors.
$AUD / $NZD 1DFinally broke out of the descending channel to test the bottom of the cloud. Turned the 50EMA into support. Will be setting an alert for when this breaks above the cloud for a LONG signal. Other indicators turning bullish, however I would like to see a positive "0-line" cross for confirmation after the cloud cross.
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Market structure retestSo we seen price breakout the low and then give us a retest at 0.69730 area on the 15min and failed to break back up above it meaning to me that price should still continue further down to previous market low @0.69200 and i have my stop loss at previous market WICK high which is at 0.69910 meaning my ratio is a is a 7:1 i will keep posting simplicit trades as they are key to my trading ideas and swinging for hours on end im anticipating on holding these trades till tp gets hit or i will have a trailing 200 pip tp @.69530 once price gets to 69.430 if price struggles to break the .69530 then i will move my sl to take profit. feedback is welcome
Dax daily: 23 Jul 2019 Yesterday's session was fully dominated by bulls. They managed to grab the momentum taking Dax slightly above the resistance level of 12 330 that we highlighted yesterday. This zone functioned with a slight delay as the price corrected shortly after. The session was closed in black numbers priced 12 293.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 380
Support: 12 234, 12 200, 12 330
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
The gap has 50 points and the statistical probability for closing is only 38%
Macroeconomic releases
London session - new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom will be announced. This might affect mainly GBP, EUR and potentially DAX too.
Today's session hypothesis
This morning started with an ascending gap. Sized 50 points, this one has a low probability for being closed as the statistics suggest the 38% rate chance from the historical occurrence. We can speculate to see rather a bullish domination. In such a scenario, we'll await the retest of 12 380 which could also function as the buyers target zone and the reversal level for sellers.
long set up on GbpJpyI saw a chart of someone going long on this pair, of course, this isn't a blind copy paste, I identified my own patterns and entry reasons. I'm looking for a complete reversal of the trend that began in early may to at least 50% of the original trend.
Risk
TP.1 1:1
TP.2 3:1
set up: identified pattern after the 2-month trend and now crossing above the 200 EMA
Short set up on EurGbpAfter a bull run that lasted 2 months, now may be the time for a correction or a reversal. although I am having conflicting thoughts about this trade. if price goes in my projected direction that would mean a strengthening of the Pound over the Euro which I don't see likely amits this whole Brexit situation.
Would be interesting to see how this plays out for the journal, technical analysis the move is waiting to happen, fundamentally......I don't think so at least.
Risk:
tp1- 2,2:1
tp2- 4:1
set up:
Correction/reversal of a 2-month bullish trend.
BTC Trend Moon or ....?If you follow some expert traders here or on twitter. A lot of them thinks if it cracks the 8700 resistance, then we are definitely mooning. If it falls to 8200 then we will see a retest of 7800.
If you are a cautious bull, you will wait for the 8700 confirmation before opening a position. If you are a cautious bear, you'd wait for the 8200 confirmation.
It is all psychological. What do you think would happen? 1, 2 or 3? Like and comment below.
EurGbp trade ideaafter this short uptrend on the eurgbp we are getting divergence on the macd. but this isn't our signal, ideally, we want the macd to prove itself and let price drop. if that happens ill expect price to try and retest the high and upon failure that would be our entry. if price keeps rising, or drops briefly and rises back up and break the high either way trade conditions would not be met effectively meaning I do not enter.
STILL BULLISH! LONG TERM CHART OF BTC! RELAX, I HAVE PROOF!Hello everyone! I have a fresh, juicy idea straight from the trees, its even greater than all my previous posts put together, and I mean it. However, I agree its tiresome to read, and I don't want every post to be like this, but this one is an exception because I have something really important to say.
As you know I have a habit of writing very long posts, I have too many thoughts in my mind, and I usually jam them all into 1 post, which is not good for you guys, so what I'll do in the future is write each idea separately and focus straight to the point.
This post will be looking at the entire history of BTC, from start to finish. We'll be looking at this chart from a birds eye view to truly understand the big picture of BTC. The future is bright and awaits us with many more phenomenal things to come, its exciting times, I can't stress that enough.
TECHNICAL POINTS
For reference, here's the legend for my chart:
Blue lines = Long term support & resistance
Pink lines = Short term support & resistance
Green patch = Bull market
Red patch = Bear market
Grey patch = Consolidation phase
Purple dotted line = BTC halvings
Black line = DNM Support
What you're seeing is a long term chart of BTC, I changed the view to log instead of auto, with this change we can clearly see that there is a massive yet gradual uptrend. We're bouncing off trend line supports and resistances on the weekly, the entire chart is going on an uptrend. If you look at the RSI, its telling us the same exact story. I don't see anything going to 0 here.
It can only go up, there's literally no indicator saying that we're heading down, this is why I'm extremely confident, if anyone tells you otherwise, ask them for proof, which they probably don't have, because they're most likely "when moon lambo kids" who don't understand a thing about markets. I'm not saying I'm 100% right, but if you disagree with me, then by all means feel free to challenge my idea, I'm always open to a civilised conversation, write what you guys think in the comments.
MARKET CYCLES
The entire history of BTC looks astounding, and it only gets better from here. If you just look at the chart, you can see patterns that are very repetitive and predicatable, in a very good way. What you're seeing is just the beginning of BTC.
Just like any market, BTC goes through cycles, we're currently on the 4th cycle, and its going to do the same thing as before. You see, every cycle goes through 3 stages, the grey stage, green stage, and red stage.
If you look at very start of the chart, BTC starts off as grey, which is known as the consolidation stage, its going through a build up moment. After the grey stage, the price gradually goes up, and transitions to the green stage, thus starting a bull run.
Once it reaches an all time high, it will create a resistance. The price will then pull back, cooling down from ATH and then begin its next phase, the bear market, also known as the red stage. The red stage is the end of every cycle.
So it goes grey, green, and red, and it repeats itself in that sequence, just like traffic lights, think of the market cycles as traffic lights. Its done the same thing 3 times in the past 10 years, we're currently in the 4th cycle as mentioned previously.
As of today, we're still in the grey stage, and according to my calculations, the grey stage will end at around October, Q4. Once October ends, we will see new highs, the market sentiment will change and we'll see a bull market emerging, this is the proof I'm talking about. You have to ask yourself, name me one bear market that wasn't followed by a bull market?
FUNDAMENTAL POINTS
To spice up my analysis, I'm going to talk about the fundamental side of things. You see, the purple dotted lines in the chart shows the date of the BTC halvings, every time there's a halving, a bull run triggers, fundamentally. Mining rewards get halved every 4 years, that means supply becomes low and scarce, causing the demand to increase, when demand increases, price increases. The coin is hard coded in the system to make itself explode every 4 years.
There's one more fundamental point I want to make, its about the black line. Now, say what you want about bitcoin but what I'm about to tell you is a hard cold fact, there's no denying this. BTC's history is infamous. Cyber criminals used BTC to buy and sell drugs, as well as other illegal goods and services back in the early days of silk road, and is still being used to this very day except operated with a different marketplace. With that said, 5% of the total market cap of BTC is used for the dark net markets. BTC's dominance is currently $93,639,254,464, and 5% of that is $4,681,962,723, if you divide by the circulating supply, you get 5% of the current price.
For reference, Here's my formula:
(BTC Dominance * 0.05) / (Circulating Supply) = Price of BTC in the Dark Net Economy
This is where the black line support comes from, when people say BTC is going to 0, they have absolutely no clue, its hilarious, they're just speaking from emotion with no solid evidence. Its literally impossible for it go to 0 when there's an underground economy happening right under our noses. If bitcoin magically dies, criminals will still use it with or without you, thus creating that black line for themselves. The Dark Net has been around for a very long time, good luck trying to take it down, because the FBI can't do it either.
So there you have it, my TA and FA in one post. I place my bets on October, thats the timeframe I see when we transition into a bull market, I can't really put a price tag on it now but I know the next bull market is going to be insane, like literally mentally insane. The facts and figures are all there, its up to you to guess what you want the price to be, and it doesn't really matter because we're all going to be rich either way.
Thank you for your time ladies and gentlemen, I wish you all a fantastic day!
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