Marketanalysis
Oh How History Rhymes... But So Quickly?I use historical analysis, not to base my decisions, but to see the options laid out on the table. The market is the magician; if you watch the trick unfold before your eyes - before you know it - you missed the slight of hand. FYI, I believe crypto will play a huge roll in our daily lives and I am long term bullish.
I make calls with big play(er)s. There is no shortcut. Trade the chart and do not try to outsmart the market. I'm posting, simply to see if there is value to gain a following or not. We'll see... but might be my one and only post. Those who have eyes should open them.
1. Fundamental Analysis: Crypto is pathetically hanging on with a prayer, in hopes of EFT or SEC approvals, flood of bullish news, and institutional money… literally the exact opposite of why crypto should grow. Most retail traders are bullish “HODL till I die”… Huge red flags.
2. Technical Analysis: The trend is your friend and the stock market is in full bull mode with no sign of reversal. Yet Crypto is in full bear mode with no sign of reversal. Crypto is not the exception to the rule and needs a correction before it can head back up to breaking "All Time High".
What Do I See?
Two large bear flags in a row (orange rectangles)
Low volume, and lower volatility
Bollinger is making a final squeeze at the end of each triangle with the basis (median) pointing up
shorts vs longs repeating
Bart formations = squeezing w/o volume
Overall sideways for 1.5 months (green box)
We have broken down on the (bearish pink) triangle
Purple grind line at the end of each triangle (currently forming)
Bulls have much resistance to break through. Bears can just wait it out...
I suspect we will make a wick to $6025 within a few days, then watch for the drop to ~$5900 = bubble has blown = lower lows/lower highs for a bit till we find a NEW bottom. COINBASE:BTCUSD
Alan Greenspan - You can spot a bubble. They're obvious in every respect. But it is impossible for the majority of participants in the market to call the date when it blows. Every bubble by definition deflates. But when that deflation occurs, it requires a point at which the vast majority of market participants do not expect it to happen. Almost everybody is bullish, expects the market to go up, and is fully committed. At that point if you took a survey of what the outlook was, you'd get an overwhelming positive response the day before it falls on its face.
-racethehair
Stock Market Analysis - 25th October 2018Stock Market Analysis
There was a pretty big selling on Wednesday 24th October 2018 on the DOW JONES, The DOW was down 600 points and as discussed previously see post from 22nd October 2018, we predicted a sell off previously on Monday morning.
We can see the selling on Wednesday with the long lower shadows below, the day looked pretty normal then suddenly the selling force came in a bit late in the day.
The confirmation of the sell off can be seen looking at the intra-day chart. The pattern shows the selloff occurred close to the end of the day with some buying creating the long lower shadow.
At the time of posting, the DOW JONES Futures are up and implies to open at over 100, S&P, Russell, and NASDAQ futures are all opening high. as we previously discussed, I suggest we are getting close in the series of selloffs. We have hit the first DOW JONES support at 24,500 points and the next support if the sell off continues is at 24,000points. There will be lots of support at 24,500 be aware of this.
I know there are a lot of concerns with news headline but the market did not sell off because of the news headlines or fundamental issue such as the pipe bombs etc. Take confidence in the fact that the sell off is almost over and the bright side is in view.
The moment the news becomes most bearish that is the time to start buying. There may be a rebound starting from Friday if we have a bullish candle during Thursday’s trading session.
Watch out for a rebound to resistance at 25,500points and then a sell off again giving a lower low, lower high. The point where we get such lower low and lower high is a place to worry. At this moment the support target to look out for are 24,500 and 24,000 points.
S&P 500
We are at support for the S&P 500 with trading closing at around 2650 and next support point is 2600 points. I expect Traders to hegde open positions during these natural moves. Similar to the DOW watch out for a bullish candle with extreme volatility.
In the VIX, volatility is expected to be lower than the February 2018 when we had the sell off. I expect you not to over react.
NASDAQ 100
The NASDAQ is also at support 7300 with next support at 7000 closing below 6800 maybe concerning. Our stochastic oscillators and a bullish candle on Friday in this manner results into a bullish divergence.
Conclusion
There will be further sell off in the coming week but November and December we will see rally with the bulls coming in and gives opportunity to buy. The market outlook is a below average risk and with seasonality October 24, 25 and 26 are historically bearish and then turns bullish afterwards from the 27th October. The month of November and December are historically bullish. I hope these raised your hope n the Market.
Be confident all hope is not lost in the market.
Happy Trading week and if I need to correct anything in my analysis I will do so as soon as it comes to my attention. I am reluctant to give trading tips because of the uncertainty in the market. So hopefully I will make up for this when the market is stable.
See you soon!
INFO Trade IdeaThe stock is consistently bullish but recent volatility shows substantial buying pressure.
Good opportunity to buy.
Earning in January.
Good option trade for calls.
Trade idea for DGAnother trade idea active on DG
Entry at $107.20
Target at $112.35 and 2nd target at $127.12
Stop at 102.77
DG bullish run on for months. Tis pullback set it up for a good buy opportunity, get it at a discounted rate.
Earnings in December so little time for the run.
it has the potential to achieve 6.52R at a target 3 of $136.15 be aware of the resistance at $111 and lock in profit as you go.
Trade idea CroxCrocs has been a nicely trending, bullish stock for many months. Having just completed a nice fibonacci retracement with Stochastic crossing up through 20, this is an interesting candidate for some continued upside potential.
Beware of earnings approaching November 7th.
Option value should increase going into that volatile event.
Trade idea CroxCrocs has been a nicely trending, bullish stock for many months. Having just completed a nice fibonacci retracement with Stochastic crossing up through 20, this is an interesting pick for some continued upside potential.
Beware of earnings approaching November 7th.
Option value should increase going into that volatile event.
Stock Market Update for 15th October 2018Good day trader, here we are ready to kick start another trading week. The retail sales data got released before markets opened in the US and seems softer because of the small negative; the market may interpret this positively given it mad slow some fed action.
Couple of nasty days last week and finished with a consolidated pattern, the Asian stocks put in a new low but we managed maintain our Friday predicted range, if we rewind to get perspective on our major indices we broke the trend line though we expected a retracement by touching the support and coming down to 25,000 points on the DOW which is a decent place to hold off and experience balance in the market.
The buying demand occurred at 25,972points before the breakout to the down, so for 15th October it probably will trade up to 26,000 points and if break up to the 26,500 points. This will be constrained at 26,000 points because the overnight distributed volume for the DOW is below the bulk of the transaction from the previous 2 trading days. However, of we have a break to the upside from the S&P 500, the DOW is likely alike.
S&P 500 came down to 2730 demand level below 2800 in a short order after breaking through 2800. On the S7P 500 we are not still at the previous corrective move from the crossing of the trend lines. Despite the magnitude of the selloff we are still not at the previous demand level of the previous sell off.
S&P 500 overnight volume occurred between 2740 points and 2770 points and the bands coming closer with a decent breakout. With the room above there is the possible sneak back up to 2842 and 2850 points with a tradable bounce and it is a smaller range than the NASDAQ. We need to be able to catch the momentum downwards if we cannot catch the trade up to 2842.
NASDAQ 100 is at a logical location to experience a possible balance but organisation like Microsoft have already started bouncing off from the lows likely around 5% while some have not caught up. The idea is we may be forming a bit of a logical reversal pattern; on the short term.
A similar overnight setup occurred with a more developed reversal in the NASDAQ 100. A resistance is at around 7,400.95 points in the short term with a possible buying pressure at 7204.67 points, this may be the high for 15th October in the NASDAQ 100 or can trade up to the 7400.95 at breakout.
Russell 2000 seems unhealthy because of the sell off and I may be taking a bearish positon for Russell because of the level of violation. The Russell touched the 200EMA and the trend lines violated increasingly. Market traded below the lower level of demand and seems weaker with the bears in control
We are experiencing weak dollar because of the retail sales number with a negative.
Conclusion
to action trades in these volatile times require traders to pay attention to the spread when trading especially options because they have widen. I will recommend traders to use the covered call strategies in this season of high or increase volatility.
Market Analysis 10.10.2018 - Stocks and Indices It was a very exciting trading week ended on Friday 04th October 2018, it just goes to show that what goes up must definitely come down.
Based on the last 2 trading sessions, the question we should be asking now is how far down will the markets be going? What does this new week bring? Some weeks it is difficult to technically forecast the market movement and I guess this is one of such week. There are lots of signals we can get into more like a month of bearishness but this does not look like a major reversal upheaval.
The nature of the market is up and down. To help you understand the market and give you confidence that in years to come the stock market will go up and down. Last week saw a size able sell off but it was not unexpected because it happens in the stock market every so often. Up and Down is the nature of the game, it is just like the natural cycle of the seasons, we just need to get ready and ride the season through.
Do not get caught up in the fake news, hyperbole and prevalent news occurrences be confident that up and down is the nature of the market. I am not worried about the future even though you were not set up for bearish market last week such things happen.
We will be taking a balanced look at this market trend. Don’t be worried about the future of stock trade. Just to let you know, I don’t trade the fundamentals or the news, I am a technical trader by looking at the big picture. Since May the market as gone up and at some point we need to come back down.
Since May 2018, the Moving Averages crossed and rallied with a little sell off on the DOW, this continued to move up and down and it happened last week. Interestingly same pattern on the S&P 500 -3.66% -3.43% and NASDAQ.
DOW JONES (DOW)
On Wednesday night the chart showed a shooting star and gravestone Doji candlestick occurred and it precedes a selling off (quite a reliable candlestick pattern) with such candlestick pattern you tighten your stops. We saw the warning and it happened because Thursday market we had a bearish day it gives a 3-day evening star reversal candlestick pattern which happened meaning a continuation of the bearing market and may probably lead to the DOW selling off to 26000 points.
On Thursday we sold off to the 10 period moving average and on Friday we had a long lower shadow which means buying pressure. On a 5-minute chart pattern to see the intra-day view, we notice the technical opening showed we traded down and close to the end of the day we traded back up. At the end of the day we had buying pressure despite the bearish market.
What Do We Expect?
The trending behavior setup is either bullish or bearish . Monday 8th October 2018 market is a coin toss because the trading set up is positioned for either a sell off or buy on.
We knew the bearish trend was coming in because it was all overbought and the candlestick splitting. In the event the bearishness continue we need to look for extreme ranges of maybe 25500 but 26000. However, a lot of buying pressure like we saw during the summer hopefully the correction will be done by Wednesday and we will be on the way to our bullish trend .
Sadly, Oscillator are heading down may enter the oversold region. None of the oscillator is supporting buy. RSI is back to 50% and with a full blow move to oversold we may end up to the 26,000 points index.
The Moving Averages are not compromised, the trend looks strong in the bullish picture. The Ebbs and Flows are natural.
S&P 500 -3.66% -3.43%
This is pulled back to a good support at 2885 and buying pressure coming in last week. There were lots of selling pressure for 6 days preceding the sell off last week to the 50 period moving average along with a buying pressure end of last week. There is an equilibrium leading to an unconvinced market. What gives me optimistic is we are on a support and if it doesn’t hold then aim for 2800.
Similar assessment on the S&P -3.66% -3.43% as the DOW. The sell off was fast, scary but not to be too concerned.
Oscillators pulling back and a bearish divergence on stochastic and a weak divergence on the MACH-D. with stochastic there seems to be a hold point at the 50 mark and may not go below to the oversold range. See the trend line and the horizontal line in the image above.
Bollinger band is in a squeeze. It is not a fully confirmed bear or bull market .
NASDAQ
This closed below the 50 period MA and it is alarming because it sold off to 7399. The buying pressure on Friday is a good sign to a bullish trend if not the NASDAQ could be a complete reversal.
Oscillators are bearish and the Bollinger band squeeze seems to be breaking bearish possibly down to 7250 and a bullish market continues. The Bollinger band squeeze breaks downwards happens with force but reverses also quickly from my experience. ADX is moving up which is sign of a bearish strength and the parabolic is bearish .
The NASDAQ is definitely the outlier.
Conclusion
I believe the big picture trend is still intact there is not enough to change our outlook on the market despite the sell off from the last two trading sessions. The market is 50 percent but we do not need to change our outlook on the market.
This seems to be the overall outlook on the market.
Market Analysis - 11th October 2018831 points down on 10/10/2018 what a bearish day but basically September – November months are volatile times of the year. From my previous update the idea for a bearish move was floated that the candlestick pattern last week especially with the long upper shadow and the evening star reversal afterward. We had buying pressure but it all gave out there was no buying pressure yesterday after the market closed.
Futures are also down 269 points and with this indication if the opens on Thursday it is likely to open at 25250.
Market Expectations
Let go back to February 2018, look at the big candlestick, the gap down followed by a huge candlestick next day and a huge bullish candle afterwards. This may be the model in play this very time but I cannot confirm it just a trader’s hunch. See the rally in January 2018 to all time high of 26500, the freaking gap down and a big bearish 500 point trading session followed by a gap down opening at 25347 just like we are seeing now to close at 24345 almost a 1000points on 5th February 2018. Following this 5th February session was a bullish candle, a Doji and a bearish candle and then the buying demand kicks in when you see the lower shadow.
My hunch is that Thursday is going to be bearish but there are alternatives.
Idea here is there will be a gap down with a bearish trade down to support levels 24,800. There are 3 primary pivot areas at 24,800, 24,500 and 24,000. It is scary but looking at February 2018 this could be the model of fizzles and rallies. Note that since July 2018 we have had a 2500 points move in the DOW JONES suggesting it is over bought.
Few months into the future we will look back and see the strong support at 24,000 and resistance at 26500. At this point in time I cannot with specificity state any fundamental reason for this move, I think the market is overbought and traders are taking profit so as not to get caught like the February 2018 move.
My hunch is the general sentiment is bearish and this may continue today but you may see an engulfing candlestick bullish because of the market volatility. It is scary but in hindsight it won’t be.
However, If we however a bullish Thursday then Friday will be a continuation to the downside as the bearish move is not completed.
The oscillators depict a downside potential.
Stochastic is downside with 47.57 and 62.95 we need to get to around 20.
RSI is oversold and MACD is currently crossing down.
The Bollinger band is a bearish breakdown.
Market Analysis for 10.10.2018 - US Indices It was a very exciting trading week ended on Friday 04th October 2018, it just goes to show that what goes up must definitely come down.
Based on the last 2 trading sessions, the question we should be asking now is how far down will the markets be going? What does this new week bring? Some weeks it is difficult to technically forecast the market movement and I guess this is one of such week. There are lots of signals we can get into more like a month of bearishness but this does not look like a major reversal upheaval.
The nature of the market is up and down. To help you understand the market and give you confidence that in years to come the stock market will go up and down. Last week saw a size able sell off but it was not unexpected because it happens in the stock market every so often. Up and Down is the nature of the game, it is just like the natural cycle of the seasons, we just need to get ready and ride the season through.
Do not get caught up in the fake news, hyperbole and prevalent news occurrences be confident that up and down is the nature of the market. I am not worried about the future even though you were not set up for bearish market last week such things happen.
We will be taking a balanced look at this market trend. Don’t be worried about the future of stock trade. Just to let you know, I don’t trade the fundamentals or the news, I am a technical trader by looking at the big picture. Since May the market as gone up and at some point we need to come back down.
Since May 2018, the Moving Averages crossed and rallied with a little sell off on the DOW, this continued to move up and down and it happened last week. Interestingly same pattern on the S&P 500 -3.66% -3.43% and NASDAQ.
DOW JONES (DOW)
On Wednesday night the chart showed a shooting star and gravestone Doji candlestick occurred and it precedes a selling off (quite a reliable candlestick pattern) with such candlestick pattern you tighten your stops. We saw the warning and it happened because Thursday market we had a bearish day it gives a 3-day evening star reversal candlestick pattern which happened meaning a continuation of the bearing market and may probably lead to the DOW selling off to 26000 points.
On Thursday we sold off to the 10 period moving average and on Friday we had a long lower shadow which means buying pressure. On a 5-minute chart pattern to see the intra-day view, we notice the technical opening showed we traded down and close to the end of the day we traded back up. At the end of the day we had buying pressure despite the bearish market.
What Do We Expect?
The trending behavior setup is either bullish or bearish . Monday 8th October 2018 market is a coin toss because the trading set up is positioned for either a sell off or buy on.
We knew the bearish trend was coming in because it was all overbought and the candlestick splitting. In the event the bearishness continue we need to look for extreme ranges of maybe 25500 but 26000. However, a lot of buying pressure like we saw during the summer hopefully the correction will be done by Wednesday and we will be on the way to our bullish trend .
Sadly, Oscillator are heading down may enter the oversold region. None of the oscillator is supporting buy. RSI is back to 50% and with a full blow move to oversold we may end up to the 26,000 points index.
The Moving Averages are not compromised, the trend looks strong in the bullish picture. The Ebbs and Flows are natural.
S&P 500 -3.66% -3.43%
This is pulled back to a good support at 2885 and buying pressure coming in last week. There were lots of selling pressure for 6 days preceding the sell off last week to the 50 period moving average along with a buying pressure end of last week. There is an equilibrium leading to an unconvinced market. What gives me optimistic is we are on a support and if it doesn’t hold then aim for 2800.
Similar assessment on the S&P -3.66% -3.43% as the DOW. The sell off was fast, scary but not to be too concerned.
Oscillators pulling back and a bearish divergence on stochastic and a weak divergence on the MACH-D. with stochastic there seems to be a hold point at the 50 mark and may not go below to the oversold range. See the trend line and the horizontal line in the image above.
Bollinger band is in a squeeze. It is not a fully confirmed bear or bull market .
NASDAQ
This closed below the 50 period MA and it is alarming because it sold off to 7399. The buying pressure on Friday is a good sign to a bullish trend if not the NASDAQ could be a complete reversal.
Oscillators are bearish and the Bollinger band squeeze seems to be breaking bearish possibly down to 7250 and a bullish market continues. The Bollinger band squeeze breaks downwards happens with force but reverses also quickly from my experience. ADX is moving up which is sign of a bearish strength and the parabolic is bearish .
The NASDAQ is definitely the outlier.
Conclusion
I believe the big picture trend is still intact there is not enough to change our outlook on the market despite the sell off from the last two trading sessions. The market is 50 percent but we do not need to change our outlook on the market.
This seems to be the overall outlook on the market.
Market Analysis for 8th Ocotber 2018 - Stock Market & Investing It was a very exciting trading week ended on Friday 04th October 2018, it just goes to show that what goes up must definitely come down.
Based on the last 2 trading sessions, the question we should be asking now is how far down will the markets be going? What does this new week bring? Some weeks it is difficult to technically forecast the market movement and I guess this is one of such week. There are lots of signals we can get into more like a month of bearishness but this does not look like a major reversal upheaval.
The nature of the market is up and down. To help you understand the market and give you confidence that in years to come the stock market will go up and down. Last week saw a size able sell off but it was not unexpected because it happens in the stock market every so often. Up and Down is the nature of the game, it is just like the natural cycle of the seasons, we just need to get ready and ride the season through.
Do not get caught up in the fake news, hyperbole and prevalent news occurrences be confident that up and down is the nature of the market. I am not worried about the future even though you were not set up for bearish market last week such things happen.
We will be taking a balanced look at this market trend. Don’t be worried about the future of stock trade. Just to let you know, I don’t trade the fundamentals or the news, I am a technical trader by looking at the big picture. Since May the market as gone up and at some point we need to come back down.
Since May 2018, the Moving Averages crossed and rallied with a little sell off on the DOW, this continued to move up and down and it happened last week. Interestingly same pattern on the S&P 500 -0.13% and NASDAQ.
DOW JONES (DOW)
On Wednesday night the chart showed a shooting star and gravestone Doji candlestick occurred and it precedes a selling off (quite a reliable candlestick pattern) with such candlestick pattern you tighten your stops. We saw the warning and it happened because Thursday market we had a bearish day it gives a 3-day evening star reversal candlestick pattern which happened meaning a continuation of the bearing market and may probably lead to the DOW selling off to 26000 points.
On Thursday we sold off to the 10 period moving average and on Friday we had a long lower shadow which means buying pressure. On a 5-minute chart pattern to see the intra-day view, we notice the technical opening showed we traded down and close to the end of the day we traded back up. At the end of the day we had buying pressure despite the bearish market.
What Do We Expect?
The trending behavior setup is either bullish or bearish . Monday 8th October 2018 market is a coin toss because the trading set up is positioned for either a sell off or buy on.
We knew the bearish trend was coming in because it was all overbought and the candlestick splitting. In the event the bearishness continue we need to look for extreme ranges of maybe 25500 but 26000. However, a lot of buying pressure like we saw during the summer hopefully the correction will be done by Wednesday and we will be on the way to our bullish trend .
Sadly, Oscillator are heading down may enter the oversold region. None of the oscillator is supporting buy. RSI is back to 50% and with a full blow move to oversold we may end up to the 26,000 points index.
The Moving Averages are not compromised, the trend looks strong in the bullish picture. The Ebbs and Flows are natural.
S&P 500 -0.13%
This is pulled back to a good support at 2885 and buying pressure coming in last week. There were lots of selling pressure for 6 days preceding the sell off last week to the 50 period moving average along with a buying pressure end of last week. There is an equilibrium leading to an unconvinced market. What gives me optimistic is we are on a support and if it doesn’t hold then aim for 2800.
Similar assessment on the S&P -0.13% as the DOW. The sell off was fast, scary but not to be too concerned.
Oscillators pulling back and a bearish divergence on stochastic and a weak divergence on the MACH-D. with stochastic there seems to be a hold point at the 50 mark and may not go below to the oversold range. See the trend line and the horizontal line in the image above.
Bollinger band is in a squeeze. It is not a fully confirmed bear or bull market .
NASDAQ
This closed below the 50 period MA and it is alarming because it sold off to 7399. The buying pressure on Friday is a good sign to a bullish trend if not the NASDAQ could be a complete reversal.
Oscillators are bearish and the Bollinger band squeeze seems to be breaking bearish possibly down to 7250 and a bullish market continues. The Bollinger band squeeze breaks downwards happens with force but reverses also quickly from my experience. ADX is moving up which is sign of a bearish strength and the parabolic is bearish .
The NASDAQ is definitely the outlier.
Conclusion
I believe the big picture trend is still intact there is not enough to change our outlook on the market despite the sell off from the last two trading sessions. The market is 50 percent but we do not need to change our outlook on the market.
This seems to be the overall outlook on the market.
Important week on the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto IndexI like to use the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index (BGCI) to get an overall View on where the Crypto Market is heading in general. If you aren't familiar with this index, please visit:
data.bloomberglp.com
Please take the time to follow Cryptorae on Twitter if you like this chart :-)
TradingView chartsetup: Credit @Cryptorae on Twitter
This week is really important for the cryptomarket in general - Bitcoin volatility is down to a minimum and everybody is keeping their breath - hopefully we will get a major move upwards - but as always in Crypto: Be prepared for the worst!