US30 Market breadth EMA200 [IAS]Introducing our Market Breadth Indicator, specifically designed for traders looking to gain a deeper understanding of the overall health of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). This indicator tracks how many of the 30 Dow Jones stocks are trading above their 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), giving you a quick snapshot of market momentum.
Traders typically use market breadth indicators to assess whether the market is broadly strong or weak. When more stocks are trading above their 200-day EMA, it suggests a healthy, bullish environment. Conversely, fewer stocks above this threshold could indicate a weakening market or a potential downturn. Our indicator takes this concept and visualizes it in an easy-to-read histogram, ranging from 0 to 30, where 0 represents no stocks above the 200-day EMA and 30 represents all stocks above this key level.
🔶Usage
Using the Indicator in your trading is straightforward, you can simply implement it by looking for:
1. Bullish Signals: When there are higher number of stocks highlighted in red (e.g., 25-30) trading above their 200-day EMA, it’s a strong signal that the market is in a robust uptrend.
2. Bearish Signals: When the histogram starts declining towards the lower end (e.g., 0-10, where below 6 is highlighted in green). This can be use as a warning sign that the market might be entering a bearish phase.
3. Confirming Trends: The indicator is also useful for confirming trends. For example, if the overall market is rallying but the histogram is showing a decline in stocks above the 200-day EMA, it could be a sign of underlying weakness. This divergence can alert you to potential trend reversals.
This indicator is versatile and can be adapted to various trading styles, whether you’re an intraday trader, or a longer-term investor.
Intraday Trading:
For intraday traders, this tool can be use to find short-term lows or peaks. As the histogram rises above the green zone in the session it may indicate increasing buying pressure, suggesting opportunities for quick long positions from the low. Conversely, if the histogram declines from a red zone, it could be a signal to explore short setups. Using this indicator alongside your usual intraday strategies can help you fine-tune your entries and exits, reducing risk and enhancing your trading precision.
Longer-Term Trading:
For longer-term investors or those looking to position trade on a weekly basis, Market Breadth is an excellent tool to assess the overall health of the market. A histogram consistently near its upper range (e.g., 25-30) over several weeks signals a strong, sustained uptrend, making it a good time to add to positions or initiate new ones. On the other hand, a gradual decline in the histogram over time may indicate that the market is weakening, suggesting a more cautious approach, such as rebalancing your portfolio or exploring defensive strategies. This longer-term perspective can help you stay aligned with the broader market trend, reducing the risk of being caught on the wrong side of a major market move.
By using the indicator across different timeframes, you can better align your trading strategy or even plan your risk management with the underlying market conditions, making more informed decisions whether you’re trading by the minute or planning for the months ahead.
Marketbreadth
Low Participation & High DivergenceAm I the only one worried about this? Big divergence between the market rally and percentage of stocks participating in it. This is what the end of 2021 looked like.
Another interesting fact: The % of S&P 500 stocks outperforming the index over the prior 1-year period hit a record low last month at 24%. This is the lowest reading since at least 1994.
SPY: FLUSH OR RALLY / MARKET BREADTH / MARKET MAKERS TIMINGDescription: In the chart above I have provided a semi-macro analysis of SPY that compares ongoing market rally and past rallies within the range of 420 & 360 Points.
Points:
1. Price Action is fast approaching 420 Resistance that has been indicative of a turn around for past 4 rallies that failed to break the 420 LEVEL.
2. First 2 rallies under the 420 Level showed signs of congruence when it came to market breadth and price action.
3. Last 3 rallies including current one has shown divergence with market breadth along with a distinct pattern of consolidation that is followed by a sudden drop in price action.
4. It is important for price action to have another leg even if current uptrend is continued.
First Price Target: 404.64 Bouncing Support
Second Price Target: 400 Critical Support
Market Breadth:
1. Showing strong signs of divergence with average price action continuing to rise. The Tech Sector is mainly responsible for the upholding of this rally with giants like AAPLE, NVIDIA, AMD, AMAZON, META, & GOOGLE fighting against bearish momentum.
2. For the majority of US INDICES Tech companies like AAPLE, NVIDIA, AMD, AMAZON, META, & GOOGLE represent a large majority of the holdings within many US INDICES. So it is no coincidence for why market breadth may appear weak when only a couple holdings are contributing to rallies meanwhile a large majority of the holdings are in the red.
3. Market Breadth Levels of 4200 have been indicative of volatile declines in price action in the past with an average incoming 10 POINT DECLINE over a day or two.
FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com
AMEX:SPY
Market Breadth 2023-01-24The main focus is on setups and scan outcome, that will provide viable opportunities.
Market Structure : Duration bearish market (stocks move in tandem, occasional oversold rallies)
Primary Indicator : Green (bullish continuation and bearish reversals are favorable)
Secondary Indicator : Breadth thrust 12 Jan / Countermove attempt 18 Jan. Current MMFI: 71.11
MR10 : No New Focus. SPY (55 MBC) - QQQ (83 Exuberance) - IWM (56 MBC)
20 percent study : +44/-8
Conclusion : Bullish last session with some excessive momentum to the upside. At the moment minor overextension in NQ as presented from MMFI and MR10, however not in terms of extreme. Market can continue but from intuition price action seems frothy. Will be considerate at initial 30-45 minute of open and act based on provided movement, expectation of consolidation or corrective move short term.
Market Breadth 2023-01-23The main focus is on setups and scan outcome, that will provide viable opportunities.
Market Structure : Duration bearish market (stocks move in tandem, occasional oversold rallies).
Primary Indicator : Green (bullish continuation and bearish reversals are favorable).
Secondary Indicator : Breadth thrust 12 Jan / Countermove attempt 18 Jan. Current MMFI: 67.70.
MR10 : Bullish Continuation - Midpoint. SPY (30 MBC) - QQQ (51 MBC) - IWM (35 MBC)
20 percent study : +27/-6.
Conclusion : Bullish expansion and acceleration in last session, which seems to indicate continuation. Move is not considered at the start, neither overextended as presented from MMFI and MR10. Will run 9 million and combination scan with a positive expectation. In terms of DT will be considerate at 30-45 min of open and observe whether momentum will accelerate or not; due to intact market theme and selective gaps.
Market Breadth 2023-01-20The main focus is on setups and scan outcome, that will provide viable opportunities.
Market Structure: Duration bearish market (stocks move in tandem, occasional oversold rallies).
Primary Indicator : Green (bullish continuation and bearish reversals are favorable).
Secondary Indicator : Breadth thrust 12 Jan / Countermove attempt 18 Jan. Current MMFI = 64.56.
MR10 : Focus is bullish continuation.
SPY: -22 None
QQQ: -2 bullish continuation + Mean
IWM: 0 bullish continuation + Mean
20 percent study : +22/-7.
Conclusion : Yesterday weakened acceleration in the downtrend followed with some upside momentum which also is represented in PM, possible bullish short term. Will run 9 million, combo scan and be selective. DT in case market indicate acceleration to the upside. Yesterday indecisive candle as break reference, observant first 30-45 min of open.
Market Breadth 2023-01-19Index : Duration bearish market (stocks move in tandem, occasional oversold rallies).
Primary Indicator : Green (bullish continuation and bearish reversals are favorable).
Secondary Indicator : Rare bullish breadth thrust 12 Jan. MMFI >72 (overbought or bullish acceleration in market turn). Countermove attempt 18 Jan.
MR10 : SPY (-4 None) / QQQ (21 bullish continuation) / IWM (25 bullish continuation) = Recommended new focus is None.
20 percent study : Up 43 (extended movers, indecisive candle) and down 10.
Conclusion : This bullish move happened unlike previous ones (without oversold condition / market new low). The breadth has been very bullish, was however inclined to hit a wall which happened 18 Jan, which in advance had a proper reversal indication. Whether we continue with a minor correction towards the mean and consolidate (rest of week) before upside or break into new lows are hard to tell at this point. Based on historic price action we will continue lower (bounce into breakdown), but this move happened outside these conditions so be attentive.
Actionable : Primary indicate bullish continuation / bearish reversal and most point toward the latter on the short term. Will focus on daytrading with decreased size and wider stops (fade risk has improved). Will only hold top quality setups from the 9 million scan.
ES: S&P Sector Performance YTDYou can clearly see that Energy has been the leader, and is in fact the only reason why ES isn't below 3600 right now.
Consumer discretionary has taken quite a beating all year, likely due to higher input costs. Worth noting is that consumer staples appears to now be joining consumer discretionary in this downtrend.
Utilities are behaving as the sector should be expected to behave during a bear market.
Rallies in ES all year have been hollow, with falling volume and open interest on the way up, and increasing volume and open interest on the way down.
I expect these trends to continue into the summer.
MMFI Is A Key Measure of Stock Market BreadthI recently updated my piece defining oversold and overbought conditions using MMFI or the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages (DMAs). Here is the key text from that post:
Above the 50, AT50, is overbought above 70%
Above the 50, AT50, is oversold below 20%
The Technicals of Converting from Above the 40 to Above the 50
Converting from Above the 40 to Above the 50 is relatively straightforward because the two measures are closely correlated. TradingView provides historical data back to January 2, 2002. Worden provides historical T2108 data back to 1987. The correlation over 8 1/2 years is 0.95. Over 20 years the correlation is 0.95. Thus, the relationship looks sufficiently consistent over time.
Above the 50, AT50 (MMFI) and Above the 40, AT40 (T2108) are highly correlated.
The correlation between AT50 and AT40 are highest at the extremes and worst in the middle. The correlation is better at the lower extreme than the higher extreme. Fortunately, the extremes of market breadth provide the most information for trading (overbought and oversold). The equation shown in the chart comes from the black diagonal trend line.
The linear approximation of the above scatter plot provides the new threshold values. AT50 overbought = ( – .3954) / 1.0007 = 70%. AT50 oversold = ( – .3954) / 1.0007 = 20%. So while wide variability exists in the relationship between AT50 and AT40 in the middle of the 0% to 100% range, the relationship works well at the extremes.
The Precision of the New Overbought and Oversold Thresholds
I examined the precision of the new overbought and oversold thresholds to add a layer of reassurance for this conversion.
Over the 20 years of data, the minimum value for AT50 for any AT40 overbought period is 55%. Accordingly, capturing any and all AT40 overbought periods requires triggering the overbought trading rules with AT50 above 55%. This conservative approach to eliminating false negatives for overbought provides 100% recall but poor precision. Using 100% recall would trigger overbought trading conditions 54% of the time based on the past 20 years of history. Something that happens the majority of the time is not an extreme! Thus, for trading extreme market conditions, precision is more important than recall.
The maximum possible value for AT50 for any AT40 oversold period was 42%. Even intuitively, traders can recognize that 42% is not low enough to define meaningful oversold conditions. Indeed, AT50 has traded below 42% for 25% of the trading days in the past 20 years.
Precision in Chart Form
The charts below provide a visual of these relationships. Each bar defines a “bin” which is a range of values. For example, think of the 70% bar as representative of all percentages starting with 70, like 70.1, 70.5, 70.9, 70.99, etc… The green bar marks the threshold for overbought in the first chart and oversold in the second chart. The yellow bars provide alternative thresholds based on the relatively high odds. The height of the bar represents the “odds” that AT40 is overbought (or oversold) given the value of AT50 on the x-axis. I calculated the odds as the percentage of time that AT40 is overbought (or oversold) given the value of AT50 over 20 years of data.
These charts show that the oversold trading period is more distinct than the overbought trading period relative to the AT40 definitions. Of course, if I started my work from AT50, this fuzziness would not be an issue. Regardless, traders should not treat the overbought and oversold thresholds as numbers fixed in stone. When the stock market approaches these thresholds, I use other data to identify when trading conditions are “close enough” to oversold or overbought. For oversold conditions, the volatility index (VIX) is useful. For overbought conditions, I look for signs of buying exhaustion as the stock market falls out of or away from overbought territory.
CWEB Weekly Options PlayDescription
CWEB has been working it down from its ATH since FEB of this year, and has gotten stopped up in the congestion pattern.
I have been watching it to pick a direction to enter a position and it looks like it finally has broken to the downside.
I have been using Long Puts in all my short positions because I do not want to cap my downside potential to leave it open for fat tail scenarios in the current market environment.
Call Debit Spread
Levels on Chart
SL > 17.5
This level marks an all-time low in the security.
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
12/17 16P
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill.
The long call is placed ATM for highest chance of profit at expiration.
12/17 is all I'm willing to go with for expiration because I do not want to pay the extra premium to push it out to January.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
BA Descending Triangle Weekly Options PlayDescription
BA has been working this Descending Triangle from its post-covid crash high around 278. There was one false breakout to the upside on 15NOV, which I traded, related idea linked.
Descending Triangles are bearish in nature, and the implied move carries BA down to 137.
Intermediate supports are at 194, 179 and eventually 144.5.
The immense amount of short triggers I am getting in this market is alarming, indicating institutional liquidation has been going on since around JAN - FEB.
The "new strain scare" from last Friday shows a perfect of example of investors looking for excuses to sell, not reasons.
In reality, the market is not worth its current valuation.
Good News = Rising rates = bad for earnings = bad for stock market
And bad news is just bad news.
Long Put
Levels on Chart
SL > 205.8
PT : 179
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
12/31 180P
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill.
The long put is placed at a reasonable midpoint between current stock price and eventual price target utilizing available strikes. I do not expect BA to reach this price target in a month.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
UBER Weekly Options PlayDescription
UBER began its bear market after the break in the major trendline July. It has now broken through major support established from the ascending triangle that was built in MAR - NOV timeframe of 20' and was also tested in SEP of 21'.
The break through 38 is the signal for the entry, and also the stop loss for the position.
Using long puts to leave the downside open.
The level of the VIX right now is my primary concern in opening long option positions. I consider all of my positions risky, and manage risk accordingly.
Long Put
Levels on Chart
SL > 38
PT : 33*
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
12/17 34P
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill.
*At 33 I will take profits, and roll to OTM puts.
The Long put is placed OTM for higher profit percentage, but before the target price for max chance of success by expiration.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
TMUS Weekly Options PlayDescription
TMUS began its bear market following the major trendline break in August. It has now broken through major support at 108.5 established SEP - OCT of 20'.
The break through 108.5 is the signal for the entry, and also the stop loss for the position.
Using long puts to leave the downside open.
The level of the VIX right now is my primary concern in opening long option positions. I consider all of my positions risky, and manage risk accordingly.
Long Put
Levels on Chart
SL > 108.5
PT : 92
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
12/31 100P
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
DUK Weekly Options PlayDescription
DUK has been working this patter that looks a lot like a head and shoulders, missing some volume indications. If so, the neckline has been broken here at 97.
As always, most patterns are not confirmed until they are already over.
The break through 97 is the signal for the entry, and also the stop loss for the position.
Using long puts to leave the downside open.
The level of the VIX right now is my primary concern in opening long option positions. I consider all of my positions risky, and manage risk accordingly.
Long Put
Levels on Chart
SL > 97
PT : 86
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
1/21/2022 95P
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill.
The January dated put is due to the limited amount of expiration dates to choose from.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
More pain to come?Top charts are the S&P, Nasdaq and Russell stocks above the 50DMA, below is the indicies themselves. Notice the divergences. The amount of stocks above the 50 are declining while prices moved higher. May lead to lower prices. Just something to keep an eye on until it gets itself worked out.
SP500 vs. SP500%ABOVE200DMABreadth indicator % SP500 STOCKS ABOVE 200DMA reaches the 50% level. Level that previously have acted like a solid support and has marked bottoms. CBOE P/C RATIO AND SPX P/C RATIO have reached levels where markets find bottoms.
"Buy when there is blood on the street" - they say
Market is overpesimistic and algos have sold quickly on the TW news. When little bit of optimism data starts to surprise to the upside we might see NEW ATH til YEAR-END.
3rd slowdown in the business cycle since 2009 have just finished.
Good Luck
$SPY - Weekly Chart Analysis Heading Into Easter Long Weekend$SPY - with its consistent grind for the month of April, we have finally found ourselves approaching ATH (All time highs) from back in October 18'. All indicators illustrating market breadth is exhausted and due for a pullback. With earnings and volatility arising in the majority of S&P names, we will be mindful of both directions the market can take. For healthy longs, we would like to see a slight pullback to $285-$290 level of consolidation to let the market catch it's breath and overbought sentiment.
Main focus for day trades have been day 2 continuation plays off highly correlated news-based plays moving irrelevant to the market conditions. Other focus setups have been on the earnings reports and pre-market gappers that also tend to more irrelevant to the market conditions.
Still keeping a mindful approach to how the $SPY is acting in conjunction with my watch-list. On gap up days, market tends to give less opportunities at the open and for longs. Key is to be patient, let the pullback/dip take place and base out, then look to attack the healthy long setups that have bullish support from the overall market.
If we do hit doomsday mode where media and major names start to tank during earnings season, will look to focus my watch-list on the inverse ETF's (UVXY, TVIX) as they are my bread and butter during volatile market dips.
Have a great long-weekend everyone and I will see you all Monday!
$SPY - Market Analysis and Game Plan Going Into The Week$SPY - still not seeing the strength I wanted to see in my watch-list last week. This is especially true in the smaller caps. Pre-Market gains are consistently getting faded off in the morning, making it tough for market open traders to see follow through on their momentum based gapper setups.
Some points for me going into the new week:
- Wait 10-minutes after market open to find the trend and wait for market to base out
- Refrain from trading small caps if possible, stick to higher priced names that are moving off earnings & PR news this week
- Be mindful everyday of $SPY gap's & volatility
- If market reverses, switch focus to TVIX & UVXY (inverse ETF's) to capitalize on the volatility and downside range of the market
- Patience, trade less (wait for A+ setups)
Have a great trading week everyone!
$SPY - Daily Chart Extreme Overbought & Parabolic Snapback Setup$SPY - our $283 level of resistance finally broke over with the market busting over and gapping up this week. Spy currently sitting at $288.26 at time of post. Highs of market are at $293.85. 7th green day in a row, constant gap ups making it hard to get day trades with market breadth sucked out before market opens. In individual names, I have been take about 30% less trades than normal. Longs my hold time is about 1/2 of what it was a few months ago. Always have to adapt and find the trend with market conditions.
$SPY - expecting a pullback sooner than later with stochastics now at 90.17. Market is due for a breather and pullback to at least 9ema, otherwise other notable level is $283 area again (for tap off support).
Have a great weekend coming up!
JSE:J200 Number of Stocks in Top40 Above Moving AveragesI coded this indicator for the JSE. The indicator gives the percentage of stocks above its moving averages. We see that the JSE has less than 20% of the stocks above its 200 Day SMA and about 50% around its 50 Day SMA. If we look at previous analogs at the start of the trading range there was a declining trend in the 200 SMA but inclining trend in the 50 SMA which lead to some recovery. However, currently the 200 SMA is declining but the 50 SMA is not printing higher highs which seems to indicated continued weakness.
STUDY OF MARKET BREADTH (Educational)Hello, to the great tradingview community.
Here is an article, which you might like...
Breadth analysis is one of the most valuable aspects in technical analysis. It introduces a new dimension to analysis, where it reveals the true strength or weakness of the targeted market. Such dimension is not attainable from the standard price and volume chart.
Breadth Analysis can be applied to any sector in the market or to a specific industry group as long as there is a way to determine their constituents and the components.
In the last few decades analysts have managed to develop some very sophisticated technical indicators based on market breadth. Some of which form a part of this article.
Market breadth indicators are sometimes referred to as broad market indicators, since they do not refer to individual stocks.
Did you know?
In 1901, Charles H.Dow commented in his June 23,1900, editorial in the wall street journal about the number of advancing and declining issues-” Of these 174 stocks, 107 advanced, 47 declined, and 20 stood still. ”
This gives us an idea that Market breadth analysis had been paid attention to long before the studies around such analysis came out.
CONTINUE READING: tradersworld.co.in