🔥 Predicting The Next Crypto Bull-Cycle Top And DateIn this analysis I want to make a prediction on where the next bull-market will top, and around which date we can expect it to top. Keep in mind that I only use the last two cycles in this analysis, so take this analysis with a grain of salt.
To make the prediction, I use the total marketcap of crypto (TOTAL), which is the value of all Bitcoin and altcoins combined.
As seen on the chart, it appears that the crypto market is following a multi-year rising wedge pattern with a clear support and resistance line. My assumption is that this support and resistance line will guide us during the next cycle.
In the previous two bull-markets, the market topped 77 or 78 weeks after the halving. With the halving being the 16th of April 2024, we can easily extrapolate the date for the next market top: between 13 October (77 weeks) and 27 October (78 weeks) of 2025.
Now that we have the date, we can combine it with the top resistance of the rising wedge pattern. My best guess is that the market will top at this same resistance like before, which will be around the 12 trillion dollar mark. This would indicate that the market will roughly do a 11x from this point onwards towards the top in October 2025.
With a Bitcoin & ETH dominance of exactly the same value as now, it would mean that BTC will top at ~330,000 and ETH at ~20,900. My assumption will be that the dominances of the two biggest cryptos will be much smaller in the future then they are now.
Do you think this analysis is valid? Where and when do you think that BTC will top? Share your thoughts below 🙏
Marketcap
Bitcoin to 1 million by June? What is needed? Have you heard about former Coinbase CTO Balaji Srinivasan's ludicrous bet that Bitcoin will reach 1 million by June due to the banking crisis? That's almost as crazy as late John McAfee's (RIP) bet back in the days.
But let's get to the real question, how much "money" would it take for Bitcoin to reach such a valuation? Hmm...a pop quiz seems fun!
How much money inflow is needed for Bitcoin to reach a 1 million USD valuation?
a) 5 trillion USD
b) 10 trillion USD
c) 20 trillion USD
d) nothing, hyperinflation will do the trick
e) it's not possible, Bitcoin won't reach a million
Put your answer in the comments right now, then come back and read on ... The answer might surprise you.
Okay, ready? Let's dig in...
Many folks might think that for Bitcoin to reach a 1M USD valuation, it's as simple as checking the current market cap and subtracting that from the total number of Bitcoins issued multiplied by 1 million. That would mean roughly 19,325,000 x 1,000,000 - 550,000,000,000 = 18,775,000,000 or 18.75T USD.
But hold your horses! There are a couple of things to keep in mind. Approximately 80% of all issued bitcoins are being HODLed right now, meaning they are illiquid, the most significant number ever. This means that only 20% of 19,325,000 BTC or approximately 3,865,000 BTC is liquid and available for purchase. The actual number of BTC available on exchanges is even lower.
Then there's the multiplier effect, averaging around 2.6 in the last 5 years. This effect means that for every $1 invested in Bitcoin, the market cap increased on average by $2.6, a fascinating side-effect of the supply and demand mechanism.
Now let's calculate buying those liquid Bitcoins, keeping in mind the multiplier effect using the following formula.
Inflow needed = liquid supply x 1,000,000 / 2.6
Calculated ► 3,865,000 x 1,000,000 / 2.6 = 1,486,538,461,538 USD or roughly 1.5 T.
Quite a difference compared to 18.75T, right?
This calculation, of course, is purely hypothetical and assumes that the current level of demand and supply remains constant. The actual price of bitcoin may vary due to a number of factors, such as changes in demand, supply, and market sentiment. Factors that could have a big impact:
Large market orders would increase the multiplication factor as it pumps up the price much faster
Certainly, some sell orders would be triggered at certain prices along the way, which increases the number of liquid BTC and thus the amount needed to pump to 1M
The calculation did not keep in mind the BTC that will be mined till June, so we need to add some additional BTC in our calculations.
Maybe most importantly, sell orders have the same multiplier effect, not to mention the panic selling that could occur if a large amount of BTC was sold at once.
Nevertheless, the calculation above proves that less money is needed than previously thought for BTC to reach a 1M valuation. While I don't believe that we'll see that happening by June and this bet is outrageously bold, it does show that there is a possibility that if the banking issues continue and people see Bitcoin as a safe haven, we could reach a 1M Bitcoin faster than expected, with less inflow than expected. The point is that the faster this would happen, the less inflow would be needed.
So there you have it! While Balaji Srinivasan's bet may seem outrageous and implausible, it's not as far-fetched as it might appear initially. With the right set of environmental circumstances, such as continued banking crises and increased adoption of Bitcoin as a safe haven asset, reaching a 1M valuation may be closer than we think. And now you know the (theoretical) calculation for how much money it would take to get there!
What do you think? Does his bet make sense? If not, what is your prediction?
Leave your thoughts in the comments and if you liked what you read here, pressing the little rocket (it really helps!) would be appreciated!
Oh, and while you're here, why don't you check the idea below as well, an actual analysis of what I personally expect to happen till the next halving. (And no, it's not as crazy as this bet). Enjoy!
🔥 Total Altcoin Marketcap Inverse Head & Shoulders: New Cycle?TOTAL3, the total crypto marketcap excluding BTC and ETH, has been trading significantly more bearish than Bitcoin and Ethereum. This can also be deduced from the vertical trend of Bitcoin dominance.
Still, there's some good news to be said about the altcoin market. As seen on the chart, the altcoin marketcap has formed an inverse head & shoulders pattern, which is classically a trend reversal pattern.
Keep in mind that the pattern is not yet confirmed. First we have to break through the top resistance (neckline). Nevertheless, it's a pattern that we definitely have to keep a close eye on since it can signal that great things are coming soon for alts.
If the pattern confirms, there's a decent case to be made for the idea that the bear market bottom is in and that a new bull-cycle for alts will begin.
Share you thoughts🙏
attention the BTC MARKET CAP DOMINANCE reach the first strong heavy resistance area
also we have to mention the divergence on the daily time frame
so the first scenario back to the HVN support to take more liquidity
second scenario break it and take it like support levels
so you have to watch this levels
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(USDT chart)
After June 3rd, it is showing a decline as it creates a gap for the second time.
If this decline continues, there is a possibility that the coin market will plunge.
(USDC chart)
The reason is that USDC's continued decline is believed to limit the current uptrend of the coin market.
Therefore, if even USDT shows a downward trend by creating a gap, it is expected that the rate of outflow of funds from the coin market will accelerate and the possibility of a sharp drop will increase.
However, USDT is currently in a state where it has renewed its previous high price (ATH), so it is not at risk yet.
If USDT falls below the previous high of 82.467B, i.e., below 81.839B-82.467B, a red flag is likely to be generated, so you should think about how to respond.
It is possible that these outflows were caused by the uptrend in the stock market.
If so, this phenomenon is likely temporary.
Since a lot of money is currently flowing into the investment market, I think that if an issue is created in any investment market, great volatility can occur.
The size and flow of funds in the investment market alone cannot determine the price fluctuations of individual stocks, coins, or tokens.
However, I think it will be a great reference for creating a trading strategy that can respond according to the importance of the current point or section by chart analysis of individual stocks, coins, and tokens.
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(BTC.D chart)
No matter what anyone says, BTC dominance is expected to remain on the rise.
The uptrend is expected to continue around 56.78-61.73.
Therefore, it is expected to confirm direction again around 56.78-61.73.
I think this phenomenon confirms that the current BTC price is located at the bottom.
Therefore, it is considered that the second wave of the rising wave is in progress for the BTC wave from a long-term perspective.
(USDT.D chart)
If USDT dominance is maintained in the 7.14-8.25 section, it is expected to continue its upward trend.
When that happens, it is expected to renew the declared price (ATH).
Therefore, for the next period of volatility, the move from around July 5 is expected to be significant.
If it falls below the 6.85-7.27 range, it is expected to escape the risk of a sharp decline in the coin market to some extent.
A full-fledged uptrend in the coin market is expected to begin with a decline around 4.97-5.53, so it is important to check for a drop below 6.21.
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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own.
** This is a chart created with my know-how.
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🔥 Crypto Marketcap On 3 Year Support: Perfect Time For EntryThe total crypto marketcap has seen weakness over the last two months. However, it appears that we've found support (for now) at a huge diagonal support line which goes from the COVID lows to the 2023 open.
This support falls in perfect conjunction with my Bitcoin analysis which discusses the idea that ~25k functioned as a spring for another leg up, see below.
So, the total marketcap is on a huge support together with BTC, and a lot of alts are currently oversold on the daily RSI, perfect conditions for bulls to step back into the market.
Do you think that the bottom is in, or that we're supposed to go lower in the near future? Share your thoughts🙏
Detect new changes in USDTHello?
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(USDT chart)
Looking at the 1D chart, the High indicator on the 1D chart was created with an increase, increasing the possibility of forming a new trend.
Accordingly, the key is whether USDT is maintained above the HA-High indicator on the 1D chart.
If this is not the case and falls below the HA-High indicator on the 1D chart and shows resistance, USDT is expected to fall to around 81.839B-82.467B.
(1D chart)
The Stochastic and RSI indicators, which are included in the 'Strength' sub-indicator, are showing signs of a decline (Stoch > RSI).
Therefore, it can be seen that the possibility of USDT declining is increasing.
Looking at the previous data, it can be seen that USDT recorded a sharp drop once it exited the overbought zone and fell.
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(USDC chart)
(1D chart)
The section 26.129B-27.456B is an important branching section.
Therefore, the key is whether you can touch the area around this section and make an upward transition.
If not, I think there is a high possibility of giving a serious blow to the investment products in the coin market.
However, since it is believed that the funds that move the coin market are being made through USDT, the coin market is expected to defend the price if there is no outflow of funds through USDT.
Since the outflow of funds through USDC is highly likely to accelerate the decoupling of the coin market and the stock market, caution is needed when using stock market indicators.
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(BTC.D chart)
Looking at the 1M chart, a new uptrend line has been created.
Therefore, it is necessary to check whether it can be maintained below the newly created uptrend line.
If not, I expect it to continue moving towards the 56.78-61.73 area.
The rise in BTC dominance will cause a phenomenon in which funds are concentrated towards BTC as BTC is leading the coin market.
As a result, BTC price fluctuations will have a great impact on the coin market.
However, if BTC dominance rises, we cannot tell if the BTC price will rise or fall.
It just tells you whether the flow of money is going towards BTC or towards altcoins.
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(USDT.D chart)
The overall trend of the coin market can be seen by the movement of USDT dominance.
When USDT dominance rises, the coin market is likely to show a downward trend.
Conversely, when USDT dominance declines, the coin market is likely to show an upward trend.
Therefore, I do not think it is correct to try to confirm the trend of the coin market, that is, BTC or other coins (tokens), with USDT dominance.
USDT dominance is also related to the flow of funds.
Therefore, it is better to recognize it as a flow of funds in the coin market.
If USDT dominance breaks out of the 6.21-8.25 zone, it is expected to break out of the sideways that BTC is currently showing.
So, if USDT rises above 8.25, there is a high chance that BTC will plunge.
Therefore, it is necessary to check whether the USDT dominance can be maintained by falling to or below the 6.85-7.27 range.
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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own.
** This is a chart created with my know-how.
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🔥 Altcoin Extermination: Worst Case Scenario ExplainedAfter Friday nights' massive drop, the total altcoin marketcap (TOTAL3) is hugging it's bear market lows of December 2022. Bitcoin is still holding up, but alts have been losing exponentially against Bitcoin, with no immediate end in sight.
In this analysis I'd like to explore my personal worst case scenario for the altcoin market. Where the alts dropped (on average) over 92% last bear market, they've 'only' dropped 75% thus far., see yellow dotted line This makes one believe that the bears still have more to ground to gain in the near future.
In my view, the worst case scenario would bring the altcoin marketcap all the way towards the lower dotted purple support. This would mean that the average altcoin will drop another 60% from it's current levels. One might think this is far-fetched, but I believe that this scenario is plausible if BTC will start dropping more.
However, we're not there yet. Some serious problems have to arise if we ever want to get at the worst case scenario. But, as we've seen last Friday, crazy things can happen randomly.
Do you think this is a possible scenario? What is your view on the altcoins? Share below 🙏
Winning or losing a trade depends on your state of mind (2)Hello?
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(USDT chart)
Looking at the 1D chart, you can see that after a short but long uptrend, it recorded a pullback, creating the first gap.
In the meantime, the HA-High indicator on the 1D chart rose and was created.
Accordingly, it is necessary to ensure that funds are maintained at 81.839B or higher.
Falling while creating a gap means that funds were outflowed through USDT, so we need to check the future situation.
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(USDC chart)
USDC is currently in a downtrend.
Therefore, it is necessary to check whether the trend turns upside down.
If not, and if it continues to show a downward trend, the coin market will not be able to maintain its upward trend and will likely fall sharply.
Currently, it is judged that the funds that have flowed into the coin market through USDT are defending the price, but if USDT shows a decline, it is necessary to be careful because the withdrawal of funds from the coin market can occur quickly.
The first thing to check is to see if USDC holds above the HA-Low indicator on the 1D chart.
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(BTC.D chart)
BTC dominance is good to look at to see if funds are concentrated towards BTC or towards altcoins.
This is because any other method of interpretation will rather complicate your thinking.
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(USDT.D chart)
An increase in USDT dominance can be interpreted as a high possibility of a downward trend in the coin market.
Therefore, it is highly likely that BTC, the number one coin market by market cap, will show a downward trend.
The reason is that when trading on coin exchanges, the USDT market is as large as the BTC market.
Because various coins (tokens) can be directly traded with USDT, changes in USDT dominance can be interpreted as reflecting the overall trend of the coin market.
Therefore, support and resistance points formed on the USDT dominance chart cannot be used to directly trade coins (tokens).
However, since you can know the flow of money in the coin market, you will eventually be able to see the chart of the coin (token) you want to trade and use it as a reference for creating a trading strategy.
This is because you can figure out whether the flow of funds is moving toward buying or selling, so you can find the timing of your trade accordingly.
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Following the DXY chart description, the same explanation is given to the USDT Dominance chart.
If you think these two explanations are different, we recommend that you read them several times in more detail.
The fact that your psychological state is starting to fluctuate due to price fluctuations means that the flow of funds is changing.
That's why, without knowing it, your own psychology starts to fluctuate.
In order to stabilize this psychological state, it can be stabilized through appropriate transactions.
Therefore, if you hold a coin (token), you can get some psychological stability by checking the movement at the support and resistance point and confirming the profit or loss by selling a certain amount.
If you do not own any coins (tokens), you can take your own psychological stability by purchasing a certain amount.
In order to trade, you must make your psychological state stable.
If you proceed with a transaction without achieving this, there is a very high possibility that the transaction will eventually fail.
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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own.
** This is a chart created with my know-how.
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XRP - Critical Zone 👀Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
XRP has been stuck inside a big range between our 0.3 support and 0.6 resistance.
📈 For the bulls to take over from a MACRO perspective , we need a weekly candle close above 0.6
In this case, a movement till the 1.0 resistance would be expected.
📉 Meanwhile , 0.6 zone is acting as a resistance, hence if we break below 0.5 , we will expect further bearish movement.
Which scenario is more likely to happen next? and why?
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Market Cap Chart: Money MovementHello?
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(USDT chart)
(USDC chart)
Looking at the USDT chart, it can be seen that a lot of money is flowing into the coin market, rising above the previous high of 82.467B.
However, if you look at the USDC chart, you can see that there is a constant outflow of funds.
I think this movement can be interpreted as individual investors' funds are constantly flowing into the coin market, but institutional investors are leaving their funds out of the coin market.
The reason why USDT is interpreted as an individual investor is that it is used as a channel through which individual investors can easily move funds because USDT supports trading pairs on exchanges around the world.
In particular, the main power of this USDT is expected to be Chinese funds.
USDC is still a stablecoin that has limited support for trading pairs on exchanges around the world.
Therefore, I think it is highly likely that the forces that move funds through this USDC are American funds.
I think the leadership of the coin market has shifted from Chinese capital to American capital.
This move is expected to make the coin market a transparent investment market.
However, as the possibility of being affected by movements in the capital market increases, the volatility is expected to gradually decrease.
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(BTC.D chart)
Looking at the BTC dominance chart, a volume profile is formed in the 47.64-48.80 section and the 56.78-61.73 section.
So, if it rises above 48.80, I would expect it to rise around 56.78-61.73.
I think that the reason why it starts to be affected by the movements of the world economy is because, as explained in USDT and USDC, American capital is leading the coin market.
The variable for this movement is that funds from individual investors are continuously flowing into the coin market.
This influx of funds is expected to drive the upward trend of the explosive coin market at some point.
This explosive rise will drive the rise in BTC price, which is expected to increase BTC dominance.
Therefore, I think we should observe the flow under the premise that BTC dominance will rise around 56.78-61.73.
It is actually unknown whether the price of BTC will rise or fall due to the rise in BTC dominance.
This is because BTC dominance can tell whether funds are concentrated in BTC or altcoins.
This is because the concentration of funds is relative, so if a lot of funds are withdrawn from the altcoin, BTC dominance may rise.
Therefore, I do not think it is correct to interpret that BTC price will rise as BTC dominance rises.
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(USDT chart)
I think the first chart you should come across to understand the Coin Market Cap chart is the USDT chart.
This is because USDT has the highest market cap among stablecoins and has become an important stablecoin that supports trading pairs on exchanges around the world.
Therefore, I think that the change in USDT dominance can be used to understand the overall trend of the coin market.
When USDT dominance declines, the coin market is likely to show an uptrend.
Thus, USDT dominance allows you to know how to proceed with a trade depending on whether it is a rising or falling candle.
Since these movements are likely to move against the BTC price chart, they can help interpret BTC price fluctuations.
If USDT dominance rises above the 7.86-8.25 range, the coin market is likely to plunge.
This is because the current section is an important section.
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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own.
** This is a chart created with my know-how.
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ALTCOINS - Stay away! It appears that the overall market is experiencing a weakening trend. Suppose BTC continues to decline from its current position; the Altcoin market cap is expected to break below its recent uptrend. This could potentially lead to a significant drop in the altcoin market cap, down to around 300B. Given these circumstances, it may be wise for individuals to avoid investing in ALTCOINS for now and instead wait for more favorable market conditions to emerge.
Note:
The US interest rate has reached the same level as it was during the onset of the 2008 Financial Crisis market decline. This should be taken into consideration. Despite this, on Twitter, someone claims almost every other day that BTC will reach 100k soon. However, in my opinion, this is complete nonsense. Given the current state of the financial market, it's not ready for a sustained uptrend.
Looking at the Market Cap chart, the coin market trendHello?
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(USDT chart)
The new high (ATH) continues to rise, creating a gap.
(USDC chart)
Contrary to USDT, USDC remains in a downtrend, still gapping.
Therefore, it is necessary to countermeasures against this as it can limit the rise of the coin market or cause a sharp decline.
The countermeasure against this trend is not to find a time to split and sell, but to find a time to buy and sell.
Misunderstanding this and proceeding with split selling or selling 100% and then buying when it fell will increase your psychological anxiety, and you should be careful as you may proceed with a wrong transaction and continue to regret it in the future.
BTC 29K or less is a buy zone from a mid- to long-term perspective.
However, since BTC rose above 29K and then fell below 29K, it is recommended to confirm the trend reversal before proceeding with the purchase.
Otherwise, if you proceed to buy when it is down, this will also increase your psychological anxiety.
In the process of trading, if you focus only on profits without considering your own psychological changes, you will eventually increase the possibility of trading in an erroneous way due to psychological factors.
Therefore, trading to obtain more profits is important, but more importantly, it is important to establish a trading strategy that can minimize the psychological anxiety and burden caused by trading.
(BTC.D chart)
We should think with a focus on the fact that BTC dominance will maintain its upward trend.
The reason is that there is a BTC halving next year.
Therefore, as more people want to trade BTC, it is expected that BTC dominance will rise regardless of BTC price fluctuations.
This uptrend is expected to meet volatility as it rises around 56.78-61.73.
If this volatility turns BTC dominance into a downward trend, it is expected that the coin market will face a period of altcoin pumping cycle.
If that is not the case, and continues to rise, I expect to see volatility again around 70.03.
(USDT.D chart)
It sits near 7.52 as it moves through the May 15-17 volatility period.
Therefore, it is necessary to check whether there is a movement out of the 7.27-7.86 section.
Since the USDT dominus once rose in the 6.85-7.27 zone, the key is whether it can be resisted around 7.86-5.25.
If it does not and rises, it is expected to renew the new high (ATH).
A rise in USDT dominance means a fall in the coin market.
At this time, the important thing is to be careful when trading altcoins as the price destruction of altcoins can be serious according to changes in the BTC price.
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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own.
** This is a chart created with my know-how.
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Total Market cap daily wave countingAs it is clear in the chart, a 5-wave impulse structure has been created, probably this 5-wave structure is either wave A or wave 1 of a larger structure.
So now we need the market to complete wave B or 2 and enter correction.
With time analysis calculations, the possible time levels of price return are:
8 Jun
25 Jun
12 Jul
4 Aug
5 Sep
Also, using the Fibonacci retracement, our possible price levels for the retracement end are:
1.022 B
958.50 B
900 B
In addition, with the formation of the head and shoulder pattern, the main target of the head and shoulder pattern overlaps with the second target of Fibonacci, i.e. 958.5 B, so this range is very important for reversal and support.
Money flooding the market, but...Hello?
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(USDT chart)
The declared price (ATH) has been updated.
Therefore, more funds are being concentrated in the coin market.
This concentration of funds will eventually increase the coin market.
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(USDC chart)
However, the problem is that USDC has no power to start an uptrend due to the outflow of funds.
USDT believes that individual investors' funds and Chinese funds account for a large proportion.
I think USDC is likely to be funds from American institutional investors.
Therefore, I think that the current coin market is being influenced by American capital.
Therefore, it is expected that the coin market will start to rise only when USDC turns upward.
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(BTC.D chart)
BTC dominance remains bullish.
This decline is starting to show that the Bollinger bands on the 1D chart are contracting.
Therefore, the trend is expected to be determined by whether it finds support or resistance around 47.64.
Since a lot of money is flowing into the coin market through USDT, the coin market is expected to rise.
That uptrend is expected to lead to an uptrend in BTC going forward.
Therefore, BTC dominance is expected to remain bullish.
Rising BTC dominance means funds are concentrated towards BTC, making altcoins more likely to move sideways or trend down.
Therefore, if you currently place a lot of weight on altcoins, you should think about countermeasures.
This phenomenon is expected to continue until BTC nears 43K.
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(USDT.D chart)
Whether funds flow in or out of the coin market, whether the inflow is concentrated towards BTC or altcoins, what matters now is whether USDT dominance is rising or falling.
USDT is supported by all exchanges in the world and is a stablecoin.
Therefore, USDT trading pairs have a great influence because most coins (tokens) are traded in the market.
In this sense, we believe that the rise and fall of USDT dominance reflects the influence of the overall flow of the coin market.
An increase in USDT dominance means that it is likely to proceed with a decline in the coin market.
Conversely, a drop in USDT dominance means that it is likely to lead to an uptrend in the coin market.
This movement can be useful when trading in the coin market.
The question is whether the volatility between May 15th and 17th can lead to a move out of the 7.27-7.86 zone.
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Summarizing the above,
The coin market appears to be on an uptrend.
However, you are not waiting for the starting signal at the starting line.
Therefore, you need to warm up well so that you can make a proper start when you are waiting for the starting signal at the starting line.
A bullish start is the rise of BTC, which will lead the coin market to an uptrend, which will cause most altcoins to move sideways or downtrend.
However, when BTC rises and moves sideways, it is expected that there will be an increase in altcoins, but be careful when trading altcoins because this upward trend is to buy more BTC.
If BTC continues its uptrend, you will naturally look towards altcoins because you think the BTC price is too high.
This mentality leads to buying altcoins, which is likely to result in losses.
This is because it is thought that only the altcoin I bought will not rise.
Therefore, in order to proceed with buying altcoins, you must be able to continue buying over a long period of time.
If not, buying an altcoin now means incurring a potential loss.
Well, if you can buy it and hold it until next year, it will be different.
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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own.
** This is a chart created with my know-how.
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Altcoin Apocalypse: Is This the End of the Crypto Revolution?Unfortunately, Altmarket cap isn't looking promising at the moment as we have just broken out of the head and shoulders neckline. This is a bearish signal for the market.
What can we expect next?
Based on the current price action, it is likely that we will retest the neckline as a resistance level. If the price fails to break above this level, it could confirm the validity of the breakout and lead to a further decline. In such a scenario, we might see the market cap dropping all the way back to the 501B level, which is a significant setback for the altcoin market.
It is crucial to monitor the 500B level closely. This level acts as a key support, and if it is breached, it could trigger a more pronounced downtrend, pushing the market into what some traders refer to as an "oblivion black hole."
To help you navigate these uncertain market conditions, I will provide periodic updates to keep you informed and minimize potential losses. Remember to trade cautiously and make informed decisions based on market analysis.
USDT: Funds focused on individuals (groups), USDC: Funds focusedhello?
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-------------------------------------
(USDT chart)
(USDC chart)
I think that USDT and USDC are used as a channel for the inflow and outflow of funds into the coin market.
Among them, USDT has a high market cap, so I think it has as much influence on the coin market.
Looking at the USDT chart, we can see that it has risen to near the previous high.
Therefore, it can be seen that the coin market is overflowing with funds.
However, if you look at the USDC chart, it has fallen a lot, making it look like the funds flowing into USDT are stagnant.
In other words, it can be interpreted that the money inflow through USDT is trying to lead the coin market to rise, but the outflow of money through USDC limits the rise or makes it fall.
Therefore, I think it is better to buy coins (tokens) that you intend to continue investing in until the BTC halving next year.
Otherwise, if you are going to trade in terms of day trading or short-term trading, I think you need to be very careful.
The inflow of new money is expressed as an increase creating a gap.
Therefore, the size of the candle does not matter.
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(BTC.D chart)
Looking at the BTC dominance chart, it is forming a rising channel.
However, the 1M chart has not yet created an upward channel and is showing an expansion.
Therefore, the possibility of a downtrend at any time still exists.
However, if it does not fall below 46.76-46.84, it is expected that it will lead to a move above 50.49 in the near future.
We believe this move is due to the BTC halving next year.
This is because the possibility that funds that are unable to find a place to go in the coin market will be concentrated toward BTC due to an event called BTC Halving next year is increasing.
However, what BTC dominance tells us is whether funds are concentrated in BTC or altcoins.
Any other interpretation can lead to confusion, so it's best not to think about it.
Concentration of funds towards BTC means that BTC is leading the coin market.
Since there is no guarantee that this lead will necessarily lead to a rise in the coin market, you should check the USDT.D chart to see if the coin market is rising.
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(USDT.D chart)
The USDT Dominance Chart is a chart that allows you to see the flow of funds flowing into USDT.
Therefore, when USDT dominance declines, the coin market is likely to show an uptrend.
If USDT dominance is trending down and coins (tokens) with large market caps, such as BTC or ETH, show sideways movements, it is likely that coins (tokens) with lower market caps will pump in the short term. .
If you are not comfortable with day trading or short trading in these markets, we recommend that you do not trade.
Because you may miss a better buying opportunity than this.
USDT dominance is moving sideways in the 6.85-7.27 range.
This means that the direction has not yet been determined.
If you look at the 1M chart, it is in a state where a proper trend line or channel has not been formed.
Looking at the 1W chart, it shows a breakout from the downtrend line, downtrend channel.
Therefore, it can be seen that we have not yet found a direction in the mid- to long-term perspective.
When you can't find a direction like this, I think it's better not to trade or to proceed with a split purchase according to a trading strategy for coins (tokens) that will continue to invest in the mid- to long-term.
The basis for proceeding with the purchase is the movement of the USDT chart mentioned above.
In other words, since a lot of money is flowing into the coin market, it is not strange to see an upward trend at any time.
If you do not take any action when the unit price has risen by 30% or more from the unit price you purchased for mid- to long-term trading, you may end up selling at a lower price level because you keep feeling regretful when the stock fluctuates up and down.
Therefore, you need a strategy to sell a certain portion according to the rate of return or some standard according to your investment style.
This selling strategy is an important strategy because it can lead to a better buying strategy.
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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own.
** This is a chart created with my know-how.
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Market Capitalization and Price Volatility in CryptocurrenciesIntroduction
The cryptocurrency market has grown substantially in recent years, not just in terms of its size, but also in terms of its complexity and the variety of investment options available.
One of the key aspects that investors consider when evaluating potential investments is the market capitalization of a cryptocurrency, which is calculated by multiplying the total supply of the cryptocurrency by its current price.
Another important aspect is price volatility, which refers to the degree of variation in the price of a financial instrument over time. The relationship between these two factors - market capitalization and price volatility - forms the basis of this article.
Understanding Market Capitalization and Price Volatility
Market capitalization provides an indication of the size and scale of a cryptocurrency, and it is a useful measure for comparing different cryptocurrencies.
Larger market-cap cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, have established a significant presence in the market and are generally considered more stable.
On the other hand, smaller market cap cryptocurrencies, often referred to as 'altcoins', have the potential for high returns but come with a higher risk.
Price volatility, on the other hand, is a measure of price fluctuations over a given period. High volatility means that a cryptocurrency's price can change rapidly in a short time, making it possible for investors to experience significant gains or losses. Cryptocurrencies are generally more volatile than traditional fiat currencies, which means that the potential for gains or losses can be high.
The Correlation Between Market Capitalization and Price Volatility
Existing literature and market analysis suggests that there is a negative correlation between market capitalization and price volatility in cryptocurrencies, meaning that cryptocurrencies with larger market caps tend to have lower volatility and vice versa. This makes intuitive sense, as larger market cap cryptocurrencies have a wider user base and more liquidity, which helps stabilize their prices.
For instance, Bitcoin, which has the largest market cap, has relatively lower volatility compared to smaller market cap cryptocurrencies. This lower volatility is due to the fact that Bitcoin, being the most established cryptocurrency, has a wider distribution and a large number of holders, which helps in maintaining its price stability.
Conversely, smaller market cap cryptocurrencies are more susceptible to price swings, often driven by speculation and sentiment rather than fundamental value. These cryptocurrencies can exhibit high volatility, leading to potential for large gains, but also high risk.
Implications for Investors and the Market
Understanding the relationship between market capitalization and price volatility is crucial for investors in the cryptocurrency market. It can help them tailor their investment strategies based on their risk tolerance. For instance, risk-averse investors might opt for larger market cap cryptocurrencies due to their lower volatility, while risk-tolerant investors might be attracted to smaller market cap cryptocurrencies due to their potential for high returns.
Furthermore, this relationship has implications for the stability and maturity of the cryptocurrency market as a whole. As the market matures and more capital flows into it, it is likely that overall volatility will decrease, making cryptocurrencies a more viable asset class for traditional investors.
Conclusion
The relationship between market capitalization and price volatility in cryptocurrencies is a key dynamic that has important implications for investors and the market as a whole. As the market continues to evolve and mature, it will be interesting to observe how this relationship changes and what that means for the future of cryptocurrency investing.
Trade with care.
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TSLA vs Ford - Market Cap Shifts may reflect Investor SentimentOn this weekly chart I have set up the running ratio of shares of TSLA to shares of Ford over
a time span dating back to pre-covid times. Added to the chart are a set of EMAs as well
as zero-lag MACD and Directional Index indicators. TLSA dominated early and the ratio steadily
increased. Given a choice between TSLA and F the longterm investor would buy the former.
However, at the beginning of 2021, things changed as can be seen on the chart and the
indicators. At this point, the ratio is over and under the weekly EMA200 and trending down.
Now an investor might liquidate the TSLA shares and buy Ford instead. Hard to say what the
the longer-term picture might be. TSLA is selling a hypergrowth narrative that may not come
to fruition. Ford is slowly steadily hanging in there with its broad product line including the
F-150 both Classic and Lightning. Time will tell........ So is it TSLA long or short ?