Market Cap Chart: Money MovementHello?
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(USDT chart)
(USDC chart)
Looking at the USDT chart, it can be seen that a lot of money is flowing into the coin market, rising above the previous high of 82.467B.
However, if you look at the USDC chart, you can see that there is a constant outflow of funds.
I think this movement can be interpreted as individual investors' funds are constantly flowing into the coin market, but institutional investors are leaving their funds out of the coin market.
The reason why USDT is interpreted as an individual investor is that it is used as a channel through which individual investors can easily move funds because USDT supports trading pairs on exchanges around the world.
In particular, the main power of this USDT is expected to be Chinese funds.
USDC is still a stablecoin that has limited support for trading pairs on exchanges around the world.
Therefore, I think it is highly likely that the forces that move funds through this USDC are American funds.
I think the leadership of the coin market has shifted from Chinese capital to American capital.
This move is expected to make the coin market a transparent investment market.
However, as the possibility of being affected by movements in the capital market increases, the volatility is expected to gradually decrease.
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(BTC.D chart)
Looking at the BTC dominance chart, a volume profile is formed in the 47.64-48.80 section and the 56.78-61.73 section.
So, if it rises above 48.80, I would expect it to rise around 56.78-61.73.
I think that the reason why it starts to be affected by the movements of the world economy is because, as explained in USDT and USDC, American capital is leading the coin market.
The variable for this movement is that funds from individual investors are continuously flowing into the coin market.
This influx of funds is expected to drive the upward trend of the explosive coin market at some point.
This explosive rise will drive the rise in BTC price, which is expected to increase BTC dominance.
Therefore, I think we should observe the flow under the premise that BTC dominance will rise around 56.78-61.73.
It is actually unknown whether the price of BTC will rise or fall due to the rise in BTC dominance.
This is because BTC dominance can tell whether funds are concentrated in BTC or altcoins.
This is because the concentration of funds is relative, so if a lot of funds are withdrawn from the altcoin, BTC dominance may rise.
Therefore, I do not think it is correct to interpret that BTC price will rise as BTC dominance rises.
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(USDT chart)
I think the first chart you should come across to understand the Coin Market Cap chart is the USDT chart.
This is because USDT has the highest market cap among stablecoins and has become an important stablecoin that supports trading pairs on exchanges around the world.
Therefore, I think that the change in USDT dominance can be used to understand the overall trend of the coin market.
When USDT dominance declines, the coin market is likely to show an uptrend.
Thus, USDT dominance allows you to know how to proceed with a trade depending on whether it is a rising or falling candle.
Since these movements are likely to move against the BTC price chart, they can help interpret BTC price fluctuations.
If USDT dominance rises above the 7.86-8.25 range, the coin market is likely to plunge.
This is because the current section is an important section.
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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own.
** This is a chart created with my know-how.
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Marketcap
ALTCOINS - Stay away! It appears that the overall market is experiencing a weakening trend. Suppose BTC continues to decline from its current position; the Altcoin market cap is expected to break below its recent uptrend. This could potentially lead to a significant drop in the altcoin market cap, down to around 300B. Given these circumstances, it may be wise for individuals to avoid investing in ALTCOINS for now and instead wait for more favorable market conditions to emerge.
Note:
The US interest rate has reached the same level as it was during the onset of the 2008 Financial Crisis market decline. This should be taken into consideration. Despite this, on Twitter, someone claims almost every other day that BTC will reach 100k soon. However, in my opinion, this is complete nonsense. Given the current state of the financial market, it's not ready for a sustained uptrend.
Looking at the Market Cap chart, the coin market trendHello?
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(USDT chart)
The new high (ATH) continues to rise, creating a gap.
(USDC chart)
Contrary to USDT, USDC remains in a downtrend, still gapping.
Therefore, it is necessary to countermeasures against this as it can limit the rise of the coin market or cause a sharp decline.
The countermeasure against this trend is not to find a time to split and sell, but to find a time to buy and sell.
Misunderstanding this and proceeding with split selling or selling 100% and then buying when it fell will increase your psychological anxiety, and you should be careful as you may proceed with a wrong transaction and continue to regret it in the future.
BTC 29K or less is a buy zone from a mid- to long-term perspective.
However, since BTC rose above 29K and then fell below 29K, it is recommended to confirm the trend reversal before proceeding with the purchase.
Otherwise, if you proceed to buy when it is down, this will also increase your psychological anxiety.
In the process of trading, if you focus only on profits without considering your own psychological changes, you will eventually increase the possibility of trading in an erroneous way due to psychological factors.
Therefore, trading to obtain more profits is important, but more importantly, it is important to establish a trading strategy that can minimize the psychological anxiety and burden caused by trading.
(BTC.D chart)
We should think with a focus on the fact that BTC dominance will maintain its upward trend.
The reason is that there is a BTC halving next year.
Therefore, as more people want to trade BTC, it is expected that BTC dominance will rise regardless of BTC price fluctuations.
This uptrend is expected to meet volatility as it rises around 56.78-61.73.
If this volatility turns BTC dominance into a downward trend, it is expected that the coin market will face a period of altcoin pumping cycle.
If that is not the case, and continues to rise, I expect to see volatility again around 70.03.
(USDT.D chart)
It sits near 7.52 as it moves through the May 15-17 volatility period.
Therefore, it is necessary to check whether there is a movement out of the 7.27-7.86 section.
Since the USDT dominus once rose in the 6.85-7.27 zone, the key is whether it can be resisted around 7.86-5.25.
If it does not and rises, it is expected to renew the new high (ATH).
A rise in USDT dominance means a fall in the coin market.
At this time, the important thing is to be careful when trading altcoins as the price destruction of altcoins can be serious according to changes in the BTC price.
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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own.
** This is a chart created with my know-how.
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Total Market cap daily wave countingAs it is clear in the chart, a 5-wave impulse structure has been created, probably this 5-wave structure is either wave A or wave 1 of a larger structure.
So now we need the market to complete wave B or 2 and enter correction.
With time analysis calculations, the possible time levels of price return are:
8 Jun
25 Jun
12 Jul
4 Aug
5 Sep
Also, using the Fibonacci retracement, our possible price levels for the retracement end are:
1.022 B
958.50 B
900 B
In addition, with the formation of the head and shoulder pattern, the main target of the head and shoulder pattern overlaps with the second target of Fibonacci, i.e. 958.5 B, so this range is very important for reversal and support.
Money flooding the market, but...Hello?
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(USDT chart)
The declared price (ATH) has been updated.
Therefore, more funds are being concentrated in the coin market.
This concentration of funds will eventually increase the coin market.
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(USDC chart)
However, the problem is that USDC has no power to start an uptrend due to the outflow of funds.
USDT believes that individual investors' funds and Chinese funds account for a large proportion.
I think USDC is likely to be funds from American institutional investors.
Therefore, I think that the current coin market is being influenced by American capital.
Therefore, it is expected that the coin market will start to rise only when USDC turns upward.
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(BTC.D chart)
BTC dominance remains bullish.
This decline is starting to show that the Bollinger bands on the 1D chart are contracting.
Therefore, the trend is expected to be determined by whether it finds support or resistance around 47.64.
Since a lot of money is flowing into the coin market through USDT, the coin market is expected to rise.
That uptrend is expected to lead to an uptrend in BTC going forward.
Therefore, BTC dominance is expected to remain bullish.
Rising BTC dominance means funds are concentrated towards BTC, making altcoins more likely to move sideways or trend down.
Therefore, if you currently place a lot of weight on altcoins, you should think about countermeasures.
This phenomenon is expected to continue until BTC nears 43K.
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(USDT.D chart)
Whether funds flow in or out of the coin market, whether the inflow is concentrated towards BTC or altcoins, what matters now is whether USDT dominance is rising or falling.
USDT is supported by all exchanges in the world and is a stablecoin.
Therefore, USDT trading pairs have a great influence because most coins (tokens) are traded in the market.
In this sense, we believe that the rise and fall of USDT dominance reflects the influence of the overall flow of the coin market.
An increase in USDT dominance means that it is likely to proceed with a decline in the coin market.
Conversely, a drop in USDT dominance means that it is likely to lead to an uptrend in the coin market.
This movement can be useful when trading in the coin market.
The question is whether the volatility between May 15th and 17th can lead to a move out of the 7.27-7.86 zone.
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Summarizing the above,
The coin market appears to be on an uptrend.
However, you are not waiting for the starting signal at the starting line.
Therefore, you need to warm up well so that you can make a proper start when you are waiting for the starting signal at the starting line.
A bullish start is the rise of BTC, which will lead the coin market to an uptrend, which will cause most altcoins to move sideways or downtrend.
However, when BTC rises and moves sideways, it is expected that there will be an increase in altcoins, but be careful when trading altcoins because this upward trend is to buy more BTC.
If BTC continues its uptrend, you will naturally look towards altcoins because you think the BTC price is too high.
This mentality leads to buying altcoins, which is likely to result in losses.
This is because it is thought that only the altcoin I bought will not rise.
Therefore, in order to proceed with buying altcoins, you must be able to continue buying over a long period of time.
If not, buying an altcoin now means incurring a potential loss.
Well, if you can buy it and hold it until next year, it will be different.
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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own.
** This is a chart created with my know-how.
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Altcoin Apocalypse: Is This the End of the Crypto Revolution?Unfortunately, Altmarket cap isn't looking promising at the moment as we have just broken out of the head and shoulders neckline. This is a bearish signal for the market.
What can we expect next?
Based on the current price action, it is likely that we will retest the neckline as a resistance level. If the price fails to break above this level, it could confirm the validity of the breakout and lead to a further decline. In such a scenario, we might see the market cap dropping all the way back to the 501B level, which is a significant setback for the altcoin market.
It is crucial to monitor the 500B level closely. This level acts as a key support, and if it is breached, it could trigger a more pronounced downtrend, pushing the market into what some traders refer to as an "oblivion black hole."
To help you navigate these uncertain market conditions, I will provide periodic updates to keep you informed and minimize potential losses. Remember to trade cautiously and make informed decisions based on market analysis.
USDT: Funds focused on individuals (groups), USDC: Funds focusedhello?
Traders, welcome.
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(USDT chart)
(USDC chart)
I think that USDT and USDC are used as a channel for the inflow and outflow of funds into the coin market.
Among them, USDT has a high market cap, so I think it has as much influence on the coin market.
Looking at the USDT chart, we can see that it has risen to near the previous high.
Therefore, it can be seen that the coin market is overflowing with funds.
However, if you look at the USDC chart, it has fallen a lot, making it look like the funds flowing into USDT are stagnant.
In other words, it can be interpreted that the money inflow through USDT is trying to lead the coin market to rise, but the outflow of money through USDC limits the rise or makes it fall.
Therefore, I think it is better to buy coins (tokens) that you intend to continue investing in until the BTC halving next year.
Otherwise, if you are going to trade in terms of day trading or short-term trading, I think you need to be very careful.
The inflow of new money is expressed as an increase creating a gap.
Therefore, the size of the candle does not matter.
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(BTC.D chart)
Looking at the BTC dominance chart, it is forming a rising channel.
However, the 1M chart has not yet created an upward channel and is showing an expansion.
Therefore, the possibility of a downtrend at any time still exists.
However, if it does not fall below 46.76-46.84, it is expected that it will lead to a move above 50.49 in the near future.
We believe this move is due to the BTC halving next year.
This is because the possibility that funds that are unable to find a place to go in the coin market will be concentrated toward BTC due to an event called BTC Halving next year is increasing.
However, what BTC dominance tells us is whether funds are concentrated in BTC or altcoins.
Any other interpretation can lead to confusion, so it's best not to think about it.
Concentration of funds towards BTC means that BTC is leading the coin market.
Since there is no guarantee that this lead will necessarily lead to a rise in the coin market, you should check the USDT.D chart to see if the coin market is rising.
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(USDT.D chart)
The USDT Dominance Chart is a chart that allows you to see the flow of funds flowing into USDT.
Therefore, when USDT dominance declines, the coin market is likely to show an uptrend.
If USDT dominance is trending down and coins (tokens) with large market caps, such as BTC or ETH, show sideways movements, it is likely that coins (tokens) with lower market caps will pump in the short term. .
If you are not comfortable with day trading or short trading in these markets, we recommend that you do not trade.
Because you may miss a better buying opportunity than this.
USDT dominance is moving sideways in the 6.85-7.27 range.
This means that the direction has not yet been determined.
If you look at the 1M chart, it is in a state where a proper trend line or channel has not been formed.
Looking at the 1W chart, it shows a breakout from the downtrend line, downtrend channel.
Therefore, it can be seen that we have not yet found a direction in the mid- to long-term perspective.
When you can't find a direction like this, I think it's better not to trade or to proceed with a split purchase according to a trading strategy for coins (tokens) that will continue to invest in the mid- to long-term.
The basis for proceeding with the purchase is the movement of the USDT chart mentioned above.
In other words, since a lot of money is flowing into the coin market, it is not strange to see an upward trend at any time.
If you do not take any action when the unit price has risen by 30% or more from the unit price you purchased for mid- to long-term trading, you may end up selling at a lower price level because you keep feeling regretful when the stock fluctuates up and down.
Therefore, you need a strategy to sell a certain portion according to the rate of return or some standard according to your investment style.
This selling strategy is an important strategy because it can lead to a better buying strategy.
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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own.
** This is a chart created with my know-how.
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Market Capitalization and Price Volatility in CryptocurrenciesIntroduction
The cryptocurrency market has grown substantially in recent years, not just in terms of its size, but also in terms of its complexity and the variety of investment options available.
One of the key aspects that investors consider when evaluating potential investments is the market capitalization of a cryptocurrency, which is calculated by multiplying the total supply of the cryptocurrency by its current price.
Another important aspect is price volatility, which refers to the degree of variation in the price of a financial instrument over time. The relationship between these two factors - market capitalization and price volatility - forms the basis of this article.
Understanding Market Capitalization and Price Volatility
Market capitalization provides an indication of the size and scale of a cryptocurrency, and it is a useful measure for comparing different cryptocurrencies.
Larger market-cap cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, have established a significant presence in the market and are generally considered more stable.
On the other hand, smaller market cap cryptocurrencies, often referred to as 'altcoins', have the potential for high returns but come with a higher risk.
Price volatility, on the other hand, is a measure of price fluctuations over a given period. High volatility means that a cryptocurrency's price can change rapidly in a short time, making it possible for investors to experience significant gains or losses. Cryptocurrencies are generally more volatile than traditional fiat currencies, which means that the potential for gains or losses can be high.
The Correlation Between Market Capitalization and Price Volatility
Existing literature and market analysis suggests that there is a negative correlation between market capitalization and price volatility in cryptocurrencies, meaning that cryptocurrencies with larger market caps tend to have lower volatility and vice versa. This makes intuitive sense, as larger market cap cryptocurrencies have a wider user base and more liquidity, which helps stabilize their prices.
For instance, Bitcoin, which has the largest market cap, has relatively lower volatility compared to smaller market cap cryptocurrencies. This lower volatility is due to the fact that Bitcoin, being the most established cryptocurrency, has a wider distribution and a large number of holders, which helps in maintaining its price stability.
Conversely, smaller market cap cryptocurrencies are more susceptible to price swings, often driven by speculation and sentiment rather than fundamental value. These cryptocurrencies can exhibit high volatility, leading to potential for large gains, but also high risk.
Implications for Investors and the Market
Understanding the relationship between market capitalization and price volatility is crucial for investors in the cryptocurrency market. It can help them tailor their investment strategies based on their risk tolerance. For instance, risk-averse investors might opt for larger market cap cryptocurrencies due to their lower volatility, while risk-tolerant investors might be attracted to smaller market cap cryptocurrencies due to their potential for high returns.
Furthermore, this relationship has implications for the stability and maturity of the cryptocurrency market as a whole. As the market matures and more capital flows into it, it is likely that overall volatility will decrease, making cryptocurrencies a more viable asset class for traditional investors.
Conclusion
The relationship between market capitalization and price volatility in cryptocurrencies is a key dynamic that has important implications for investors and the market as a whole. As the market continues to evolve and mature, it will be interesting to observe how this relationship changes and what that means for the future of cryptocurrency investing.
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TSLA vs Ford - Market Cap Shifts may reflect Investor SentimentOn this weekly chart I have set up the running ratio of shares of TSLA to shares of Ford over
a time span dating back to pre-covid times. Added to the chart are a set of EMAs as well
as zero-lag MACD and Directional Index indicators. TLSA dominated early and the ratio steadily
increased. Given a choice between TSLA and F the longterm investor would buy the former.
However, at the beginning of 2021, things changed as can be seen on the chart and the
indicators. At this point, the ratio is over and under the weekly EMA200 and trending down.
Now an investor might liquidate the TSLA shares and buy Ford instead. Hard to say what the
the longer-term picture might be. TSLA is selling a hypergrowth narrative that may not come
to fruition. Ford is slowly steadily hanging in there with its broad product line including the
F-150 both Classic and Lightning. Time will tell........ So is it TSLA long or short ?
10-05-2018 - 10-05-2023 MKR MC = 706M In five days it will be five years ago on the 10-05-2018 that Makerdao had the exact same marketcap of 706M dollars. 🙃
On the chart you can see the straight line with basicly no financial growth over the years, let's say the next 5 years will be better? It can't be worse then this in my opinion... 😆
10-05-2018 - 10-05-2023 MKR MC = 706MIn five days it will be five years ago on the 10-05-2018 that Makerdao had the exact same marketcap of 706M dollars.
On the chart you can see the straight line with basicly no financial growth over the years, let's say the next 5 years will be better? It can't be worse then this in my opinion...
Total Crypto Market Cap Chart Analysis: Key Levels to Watch Total Crypto Market Cap Chart Analysis: Key Levels to Watch and Future Price Predictions
Cryptocurrency has been on a rollercoaster ride in recent years, with market volatility being a common occurrence. In this article, we will analyze the total crypto market cap chart and identify key levels to watch, as well as provide future price predictions based on current trends.
Key Levels to Watch:
The total crypto market is currently trading within a parallel channel and has been rejected from a strong resistance level at $1.25T. The next support levels to watch are $1T and $960B, which could be potential retest levels.
If the market breaks the $1.50T level, it could hit a new all-time high, potentially reaching resistance levels at $2T and $3T.
Future Price Predictions:
Based on the current trends and market analysis, we can expect the total crypto market to continue its upward trend in the long term. The next bull market could see the total crypto market cap reaching around $10T, presenting a massive growth opportunity for long-term investors.
Conclusion:
As the crypto market continues to evolve, it is important to stay up-to-date on the latest market trends and key levels to watch. While volatility can be expected, investors who take a long-term view may find opportunities to capitalize on the market's growth potential. Keep an eye on the support and resistance levels mentioned in this article to stay informed and make informed investment decisions.
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Macro Bitcoin Market Cap Ratioed through Halving prices Bitcoins halving in 2020 was priced at 150 Billion dollars . Since the supply was cut in half, you could've expected 600 billion because that is 150 billion times two . We pumped double (150 to 600) and doubled from (600 Billion to 1.2 Trillion.) This was a big pump and we just bottomed at 300 billion and have just hit 600 billion . Notice the pattern in ratios . Send me your thoughts and comments below thanks for reading.
Identify the size or flow of funds in the coin marketHello?
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In order to find out the size or flow of funds in the coin market, I think you should pay attention to the movement of the four charts below.
Check the size of your funds: USDT, USDC
Check the flow of funds: BTC.D, USDT.D
It is best to view all four charts together if possible because you can find out the size or flow of funds from limited information.
If it is difficult to see all four charts, it is recommended to view at least the USDT.D chart, which shows the flow of funds best.
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(USDT chart)
(USDC chart)
It is important to check the USDT and USDC charts to find out the flow of funds in the current coin market.
USDT is a stablecoin backed by exchanges around the world.
Therefore, it is indispensable for most coin (token) transactions.
Therefore, the fact that USDT maintains an upward trend can be interpreted as meaning that funds are continuously flowing into the coin market.
However, the size of the candlestick is not very important because it is thought that new funds will flow in only when a gap occurs and rises on the USDT and USDC charts.
Although USDC maintains a high market cap, it is one of the stablecoins with little support for trading pairs on exchanges around the world.
However, since the market capitalization is maintained at a high level, it is less than USDT, but I think it exerts some influence on the coin market.
In particular, since USDC is likely to be composed of US investment capital, it is understood that it is being used as a fund warehouse by institutional investors.
Therefore, it is highly likely that USDC funds will be moved according to stock market fluctuations.
In that sense, if you look at the flow of the current USDC chart, you can see that a lot of money is flowing out of the coin market.
I think it is a disprove that funds are moving from the coin market to the stock market.
So, if the stock market shows a clear uptrend, the USDC chart is predicting a trend reversal.
Therefore, USDC's downtrend has the potential to limit or plunge the coin market's uptrend caused by USDT's uptrend.
We expect this move to act as an opportunity to increase new buying.
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(BTC.D chart)
(USDT.D chart)
It is recommended to look at the BTC.D chart and the USDT.D chart together, but if it is difficult, it is better to look at the USDT.D chart alone.
However, since the BTC.D and USDT.D charts show the overall flow of funds in the coin market, it is not possible to know the flow of funds for individual coins (tokens).
To see the individual money flow of a coin (token), it is recommended to look at the BTC market chart of the coin (token).
Since BTC is used as the key currency of the coin market, I think the BTC market chart best reflects the price fluctuations of coins (tokens) according to BTC price fluctuations.
However, coins (tokens) with too low market capitalization are the same regardless of whether they are on the same BTC market chart or USDT market chart.
Coming back to the BTC.D and USDT.D charts,
Since BTC is the number one market capitalization in the coin market, I think most of the fund size or flow in the coin market is related to BTC price fluctuations.
in that sense
The BTC.D chart and the BTC dominance chart are charts that allow you to see whether funds are concentrated toward BTC or altcoins.
Therefore, rising BTC dominance can be interpreted as meaning that funds are concentrated towards BTC.
Just because funds are concentrated towards BTC does not mean that the BTC price will rise.
If you don't understand this point, you should be careful because you can interpret it in the wrong direction.
When funds are concentrated towards BTC, if USDT dominance rises, the coin market is likely to show a downward trend.
The reason is that USDT is a stablecoin that supports trading on exchanges around the world.
This is because the increase in USDT dominance means that USDT is increasing through trading, which means that selling in the coin market is increasing.
Therefore, as a condition for trading altcoins, you must show a drop in BTC dominance and a drop in USDT dominance.
If not, it is because most altcoins are unlikely to make significant gains.
BTC dominance is expected to continue to rise.
The reason is that there is a BTC halving next year.
This is because as the BTC halving approaches, a lot of people will flock to the coin market.
And, if the BTC price starts to rise in earnest, funds will inevitably be concentrated towards BTC for the time being.
If you don't buy it now, it's because you will buy BTC with the thought that you can't.
This will cause altcoins to gradually lose their strength and move sideways or decline, despite the upward trend in BTC price.
I think this trend is likely to continue until the BTC price nears 43K.
As USDT dominance falls below the uptrend line (1), it becomes important whether it can touch around 6.21.
The important divergence of USDT dominance is in the 4.97-5.53 range, and if it falls below this range, the coin market is expected to start such an uptrend in which any coin (token) can be bought and profit will be made.
Before that, the question is whether it can fall below the 5.89-6.21 range.
I think the coin market must fall below the 5.89-6.21 range to go to a big bull market.
So, the next period of volatility on the USDT.D chart is around April 22nd.
After this period of volatility, we need to see if it stays below the downtrend line (2).
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I think that the coin market is open to many things that are different from the stock market.
In particular, I think it is attractive to be able to know the size and flow of funds.
Therefore, it is important to first check the four charts mentioned above rather than relying on all kinds of information to predict the prospects and trends of the investment market, that is, the coin market.
After that, I think checking the information going around reduces the possibility of making a wrong decision.
When CDBC becomes active, there is a possibility that the influence of existing stablecoins will be weakened.
The reason for this is that it is highly likely that direct transactions will be possible with CDBC, i.e. fiat currency.
In that case, the size or flow of funds in the coin market may not be known with the above four.
Then, an investment environment like the existing stock market will be created, and more individual investors than now will suffer losses.
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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own.
** This is a chart created with my know-how.
---------------------------------
Market Cap Analysis: BTC Dominance Rejected, Alt Season Ahead?Hello traders,
In this post, we will analyze the current state of the cryptocurrency market through the lens of market cap, BTC dominance, and major indices. We will also look at the potential for an alt season, the impact of the upcoming Bitcoin halving, and which coins are outperforming BTC in the long term. Finally, we will provide a short-term perspective on the price of Bitcoin.
First, let's have a look at market cap.
The BTC dominance was rejected by resistance at 49% with this reverted hammer candle on week of April 23. It could mean the market cap will flow into altcoins. And, on the right chart, the RSI is oversold and getting closer to the 50 mark which is, on this 2 weeks chart, an indicator of alt season.
Now, if we look at the Total market cap, we can see that it significantly grows after a bitcoin halving . The next one is just in 1 year, so be patient!
It's also important to look at major indices, since they can impact the price of the crypto market.
The S&P 500 is currently trading in a triangle, and seem to bounce on the top of it these last days. It could mean more action to the downside.
Here is my "BTC destroyers" chart, and right now, only ETH and BNB, and maybe MATIC are outperforming bitcoin on the long term.
Here is a bear's perspective on Bitcoin:
I like to compare Bitcoin and Nasdaq price as they are strongly correlated.
A double top is forming on Nasdaq price and could be bad news for BTC price.
Now on the short term for Bitcoin:
The 4 hour chart is printing a double bottom, it will be valid if price climbs back to 28 000$, the target will then be 28 880$.
However the bigger trend is bearish, price currently below all moving averages, if price breaks below the bottom of last few day's range at 27 100$, next target for the bears is 26 660 given by fibonacci levels.
Altcoins marketcap to hit $5.755T? Previously, altcoins formed a W pattern in 63 bars / 1124 days.
13 bars / 91 days before it hit new ATH.
Retrace, then created another new ATH and altcoins cycle ends.
If it repeats this, then I'm expecting Dec 2024 to retest ATH / 1.707T.
Jan 2025 - March 10, 2025, as possible pullback.
April to September 2025 as the final peak at estimated 5.755T marketcap.
Let's see.
Trade cautiously. Ingat!
🔥 Stable coin Landscape Changed Drastically In 2023In this analysis I want to shed some lights on the top 3 biggest stable coins and how their relationships changed in 2023.
First of all, it's natural for stable coin marketcaps to decrease during bear markets. Investors are leaving the space and exchange their stables for fiat. This is something we've seen for the better part of 2022.
However, things changed in 2023.
- 13th of Feb: Binance and PAXOS (the issuer of BUSD) got hit by the SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission), which led to no more BUSD being minted. In turn, this has led to BUSD holders to convert their stables to both USDT and USDC, which saw a significant up tick in their marketcap. Basically, BUSD is a dead coin at the moment and will inevitably go to a marketcap of zero.
- 10th of March: USDC depegged from HKEX:1 during the depths of the banking crisis because it had funds in SVB. USDC quickly repegged, but trust has been damaged to such an extent that investors dumped their USDC and moved to USDT.
In the end, I think that USDT is the big 'winner' of the stables. It was the first, the biggest and apparently the safest. In my eyes, there's little reason to have any other stable than USDT, since it has clearly shown resilience over other big stables. In addition, I think that the market will gradually move towards having only 1 stable coin, it being USDT.
What is your preferred stable coin, and why? Share your thoughts 🙏
The more liquidity, the more fuel BTC has to go upUSDT has been gaining more and more MarketCap and this liquidity is clearly helping BTC to continue performing.
See that last move as the correlation is close.
A lot of USDT entering the market.
This means that it will be very difficult to stop BITCOIN.
As long as this liquidity is present in the market, BITCOIN will continue to capture it and continue its parabolic rise.
It's printed money that generates inflation being used to buy a deflationary asset, funny but it's real
You are taking advantage of the pullbacks to buy.
🔴Disclaimer: The comments above reflect solely and exclusively my opinion, this is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Just a series of published studies, so that together with the community we can discuss tactics and operational techniques.