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Marketcrash

What on Earth Is a Circuit Breaker?!Every couple of days since April 2nd, everybody's been talking about a stock market halt all day. You're left there trying to Google it so you're not the only person in the group chat who doesn't know what's going on. But actually, nobody else in your group chat knows what's going on either. They're low-key Googling it under the desk. You don't have to know everything in the market to be a "seasoned" trader. What does get disappointing is when people guess instead of providing facts or a direct link to an article about market halts. So, this is your quick-but-detailed-read article/ guide to market halts and circuit breakers. Send it to your friends in that group chat. Why today's dump happened in the first place? More on that later. It's a long story. 🥹 What is a circuit breaker? It's simple: a circuit breaker is a 15 minute OR whole-day market-wide HALT when the market reaches 1 of 3 decline levels. It all depends on the level, how fast the decline is, and potentially other factors that we are not aware of. Keep in mind this is not something we have to deal with often. When does it happen? And what stock does it track? Good question. The halt is triggered following declines in the S&P 500 only . That is: AMEX:SPY SP:SPX $CME_MINI:ES1!. If these level 1 & 2 are reached before 3:25 PM EDT , there is a 15 minute market-wide trading halt. Meaning you cannot enter or exit positions. If level 3 is reached at any time in the day, the entire day's trading will come to an end. Level 1: -7.00% | 15 minute halt Level 2: -13.00% | 15 minute halt Level 3: -20.00% | Entire day halt So when the S&P 500 index reaches -6.98%, be sure a halt is coming very soon at -7.00%. Sure, like today, "they" might pump it and use that as support and prevent a halt (we got very close to -6.35% on CME_MINI:ES1! if I'm not mistaken). But it's good to be vigilant and make sure you're not in any daytrades. Does CME_MINI:NQ1! NASDAQ:QQQ CBOT_MINI:YM1! trigger the halt also? No. The halt is only triggered by the S&P 500. The Nasdaq Composite famously moves much more than S&P 500, so a 7% drop in S&P is way more dramatic than a 7% drop in Nasdaq and it's highly likely at -7% in S&P that Nasdaq would be at -8% or -9%. Although, both are undoubtedly decimating for any long positions. Why does this rule exist? This was introduced after Black Monday of 1987 where the market was free falling ( DJ:DJI dropped 22.6%) with no safety stops in place to prevent a market-wide disaster. This prevents further panic selling and massive stop loss raids, and also gives institutional traders time to zoom out and see the bigger picture. How close did we get recently? Today we got within 0.7% of getting a 15 minute halt. See for yourself: And the intraday 15 minute chart: FUN FACT: What if I shorted the top on CME_MINI:ES1! ? Assuming your time machine goes back 24 hours (some time machines only go back 10 years minimum), you'd have booked 1500 ticks at $12.50 per tick. So around $19k per contract. You know that's not too bad. It's almost a Toyota Camry per contract. Do better! 😆 How do I trade this? Do you really have to? Please do not FOMO & catch a falling knife. Trade light. The market is open for the rest of the year. Trade with a stop loss, and remember, if you FOMO'd and bought at -3% just because it's down 3%, you'd have gotten decimated. Use the charts not the % on your screen. 🔥 Hit the follow button for free educational content because knowledge is free. KD out.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by kingdips
1
BTC UPDATE: Flash Crash? Or Bullish Retest?🚀 Hey Traders! 👋 If you’re enjoying this analysis, smash that 👍 and hit Follow for high-accuracy trade setups that actually deliver! 💹🔥 📉 BTC just dropped nearly $10K in a single day, sliding from $84K to $74K amidst growing tariff tensions and broader market turmoil. But here’s the bullish twist—this dump might just be a healthy retest. BTC recently broke out of a strong inverse head & shoulders pattern, and what we’re seeing now looks like a classic neckline retest. 📌 Key Support: $72K As long as BTC holds above this level, there’s no reason to panic. Once the dust settles from this bloody Monday, momentum could shift back to the upside. 🟢 This could be a golden accumulation zone—low risk, high potential reward. ❌ Invalidation Level: Weekly close below $72K 💬 What’s Your Take? Will BTC bounce from this level, or is there more downside ahead? Drop your analysis and predictions below—let’s navigate this together and secure those gains! 💰🔥🚀
Long
by CoreCrypto1
Gold Short Setup: Targeting 3030 & 3015 from 2st Resistance ZoneGold (XAUUSD) is currently trading around 3049 after bouncing strongly from the highlighted support zone near 2950. Price is now testing the 2st resistance area, and a rejection here could lead to a bearish move toward the target zone just below. 🔻 XAUUSD Bearish Trade Plan Entry Zone: 3045–3050 1st Target: 3030 2nd Target: 3015 Stop-Loss: Above 3060 (just above recent highs and the edge of the 2nd resistance zone) 🛡️ Why 3060 as Stop-Loss? It's above both the 1st and 2nd resistance zones. If price breaks above 3060 with momentum, it could signal buyers are in control and invalidate the short setup. This gives you about 30–35 pips of risk for a potential 30–35 pips gain to the 1st target, and up to 60–65 pips to the 2nd — offering a solid risk-to-reward ratio.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by TRADE_CENTER_1
So here’s what I’m doing: Not Panicking.This analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research. Listen, the US has survived the depression of WWI, the Great Depression, the depression of WWII, oil shocks, the dot com bubble, the GFC, the COVID-sell off. It’ll likely survive this. In the scope of history, that $1 survived very well indeed. Panicking and running for the hills does not do so well. Winston Churchill was a great and flawed man but a terrible investor; he bought and sold shares prior to the 1929 crash in such speculative investments as mining companies, railways, and so on — most of them lost money (hence why Churchill continued to write at such a pace — to fund his Champagne-and-spec stock lifestyle). Hetty Green, on the other hand, (known as the “Queen of Wall Street”, managed to do very well her time — her quote? I buy when things are low and no one wants them. I keep them until they go up, and people are crazy to get them. Now, that’s something I can get behind. Nobody wanted Meta a few years ago. I wrote an internal memo, close to its plummet in ‘22 (it got to $99 or so a share!). I wrote this: ii) Yet what if we were to tell about about a company with this set of heuristics? Let’s call it “Company A” Company A has a 31% return on equity and a 20% return on capital. It has a net income margin of 37% and a FCF margin of 21% Its income has a compounded annual growth rate over the last 5 years of 41% If we add in numbers, now, let’s say the net income for 2020 was $29 billion, and $10 billion of that was used to repurchase stock from shareholders? Let’s say the unlevered FCF is around $6 billion per quarter, and let’s say the debt to equity ratio is about 9x. In other words, Company A is grows at a quick clip, and has done sustainably for the majority of its life. Its return on capital and return on equity would make any investor happy. Its FCF is an absolute machine. Would you buy Company A? Company A was Meta . You would’ve roughly made 4x or 5x’d your money if you’d bought around then. The point is, the fundamentals of a business matter, and right now there a quite a few exceptional businesses with good fundamentals trading at a good price. Alphabet (Google) trades at ~16x earnings. LVMH trades at ~18x earnings. And so on. Brown-Forman trades at ~15x earnings. These are all “inevitables” — Google will continue to be a dominant advertising platform, LVMH will continue to sell luxury, and Brown-Forman will continue to sell Jack Daniel’s and so on. I talked to my ma in the weekend. She is not really a share person. Her portfolio is a bunch of “inevitables”. It’s done very well. She said “aren’t you worried about this stock market?”, and I said “You love supermarket shopping, Mum. If you see something at a 25% discount you buy it. You come home, and you’re delighted that you found some mince on special²” She was like, “oh, that makes sense”. The problem is you have a lot of people looking at charts and catching worry that the world will end. The world, I am delighted to say, has a magnificent disposition to carry on.
SP:SPX
by BlackBull_Markets
2
SNP500 / SPX🔍 SPX/USDT Analysis: Daily Timeframe 📉 SELL IT! The SPX chart on a daily timeframe highlights significant upcoming dates where price movements may present trading opportunities. These should be analyzed in conjunction with higher timeframes for a comprehensive market view. • September 3, 2024 - Red Line: This date marks a potential local peak. Traders might consider this as a moment to take profits or reduce exposure, as the price could encounter resistance or a downturn. • December 6, 2024 - Red Line: This date is another potential local peak, signaling a possible moment to exit positions before a downturn. When working with this daily timeframe, remember to evaluate these movements within the context of the broader market trend, considering higher timeframes for a more global perspective. Note: The exact timing of these phases can vary by +/- a few days. All times are based on UTC-7 (Los Angeles).
SP:SPXShort
by trushkovskiy
Market Update: NASDAQ 100 Analysis📈 The NASDAQ 100 is currently trading at 18,075.00, which represents a -22.6% decline from the all-time high of 22,425.75 . This marks a significant drop from its peak, entering into what could be classified as a bear market by traditional standards. 📊The previous decline from the high of 16,800.00 in November 2021 saw a decline of 37.47% , eventually bottoming out at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (10,514.25), from which it staged a significant recovery to reach the all-time high of 22,425.75. 📊Current Demand Zones & Fibonacci Levels: These zones represent potential reversal areas where buyers could regain control. The Fibonacci retracement levels align well with historical price action, reinforcing their significance as support zones. DZ-1 (17,539.00-16,334.85): Approximately the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent bull rally DZ-2 (16,334.85-15,384.25): Approximately the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement - Historically a strong support level DZ-3 (15,384.25-14,557.00): Critical structural level with prior buyer interest DZ-4 (14,557.00-14,140.25): Deep support level - key psychological zone 📈 Recovery Potential To regain the all-time high of 22,425.7 5, the market would need to achieve the following percentage gains from each demand zone: From DZ-1 (Top: 17,539.00, Base: 16,334.85): 📈 +37.3% to all-time high From DZ-2 (Top: 16,334.85, Base: 15,384.25): 📈 +45.8% to all-time high From DZ-3 (Top: 15,384.25, Base: 14,557.00): 📈 +54.0% to all-time high From DZ-4 (Top: 14,557.00, Base: 14,140.25): 📈 +58.6% to all-time high The DZ-2 to DZ-3 range provides the most likely region for a significant reversal based on confluence between historical support levels and Fibonacci retracements. While DZ-4 aligns with the 37% historical decline. 🔑 Key Takeaways The NASDAQ 100 s is in a significant correction phase, down -22.6% from its peak. Price is approaching critical Demand/support zones (DZ-1 to DZ-4), which may act as reversal points. A return to all-time highs would require substantial gains, particularly if the market reaches the deeper demand zones. Investors should closely monitor price action around the DZ-2 to DZ-3 range (15,384.25 - 14,557.00) for signs of a potential reversal. Additionally, staying updated on developments related to the new tariffs is essential, as they may heavily influence market dynamics in the coming months.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by MESHANL
Crude OIL CRASH - OPEC & Trump - Recession Catalyst#Recession is here, Markets are bleeding. Crude #Oil is the kicker. I shorted TVC:USOIL on Friday. Hunting on this trade for a while now. Very #Bearish outlook on #WTI. MARKETSCOM:OIL Weekly #FundamentalAnalysis - #OPEC+ Output Hike (411K bpd) - #Trump #Tariffs & #TradeWar I'm looking at a #CrudeOIL #MarketCrash, similar to the #Covid era, when NYMEX:CL1! went in minus on #Nymex #Futures. TVC:USOIL & my BIG SHORT #Trading EASYMARKETS:OILUSD via CFDs with #Leverage. Executed my #Sell Position on #WTI at $64. * DYOR before, it's not a financial advice, I just share. #TechnicalAnalysis - #ElliottWave Impulse Cycle a (white) - #Correction in Primary ABC (red) - #LeadingDiagonal in Primary A (red) - #Descending Triangle in Primary B (red) Why will BLACKBULL:WTI Crash? #Bearish Primary C (red) has started. #Break-out below the Triangle Flat Line. Important Note: The #Bearish #Impulse will continue lower. After the short-lived pull-back, Sellers will dominate. $63-64 Range is the Entry. MARKETSCOM:OIL Daily TVC:USOIL #Short #TradeSignal - Entry @ $63-64 Range - SL @ $73 - TP1 @ $40 - TP2 @ $30 - TP3 @ $20 Stay in the green and many pips ahead! Richard (Wave Jedi)
TVC:USOILShort
by EW4X
DKNG Update | Crash AheadOne of the best fractal overlays I've seen with some Elliott Waves to go with it. Price is still in a uptrend but with growing sellers It'll come to an end similar to the last fractal. During the 3rd wave in the last pattern price experienced its first pullback at (B), and its second at correction wave 4 and the third after the last wave before we witnessed the last push in buyers. This current cycle price is in a similar stage with a swing low at (b) meaning that we could see another run-up towards major resistance ($63). This would be the final blow-off-top in general markets. TVC:RUT is already showing signs of weakness which works well with this TA example. When the time is right I'll do another TA for the downfall. For now I'm bullish but for the horizon I'm very bearish.
NASDAQ:DKNGLong
by Nathanl19
5
SPY, PCC & Percentage of S&P 500 Stocks Trading Above 20 SMASPY is in pink, PCC is in yellow and candles show S5TW (Percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 20 SMA) on this weekly chart. You will notice after a significant drop of over 5% on S&P 500, once S5TW start getting below 20%, a reversal isn't that far away. Relief rally rips can be dramatic, so it really isn't the time to get bearish. Need to put that bull hat on! For now I am leaning after this retrace pump to 590 area, conclusion of B wave, but we still will put in a C wave which will likely head lower than where we finished A, but after that it will be one more impulsive wave to finish this bull run which should take us to SPY 650 by mid next year. Won't want to miss that one!!!
INDEX:S5TWLong
by KingTrading999
BIGGEST ECONOMIC RESET: BTC!🚨 WHAT IF THE BIGGEST ECONOMIC RESET IS HAPPENING BEFORE OUR EYES? 🚨 We’ve seen governments manipulate markets before, but what if we’re witnessing the most sophisticated financial maneuver in history? Right now, the U.S. is drowning in historic levels of debt—over $35 trillion—with interest payments soaring to nearly $1 trillion per year. The system is unsustainable. But what if Trump, or whoever is pulling the strings, is playing the ultimate financial chess game? 🎭 🔹 The Playbook: 1️⃣ Crashing Bitcoin from $109K to $60K: • Market manipulation? Coordinated selling? Whatever it is, we see heavy downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price. • The Federal Reserve begins lowering interest rates, making money cheaper. • Institutions, possibly even governments, buy Bitcoin at $60K, accumulating billions—or even trillions—at a discount. 2️⃣ Pumping Bitcoin to $120K: • After accumulating at low prices, strategic moves (regulatory shifts, institutional adoption, positive media cycles) push Bitcoin up. • The U.S. government (or key financial players) now holds Bitcoin at twice the original value. • Instead of selling, they use Bitcoin as collateral to take out new loans at higher valuations—doubling their money on paper. 3️⃣ Paying Off U.S. Debt with Bitcoin Gains: • Now sitting on a $10T profit, the U.S. (or its financial arms) uses the capital to pay off a significant portion of its debt. • Trump, or whoever executes this plan, is suddenly praised as the savior of the U.S. economy. • The media calls it “the greatest financial turnaround in history.” 4️⃣ Dumping Bitcoin Again—Back to GETTEX:25K -$35K: • After securing profits and lowering debt, Bitcoin is strategically dumped back down. • The cycle repeats: Buy low, manipulate, sell high, control the financial game. • The next cycle? 2027. This could be the biggest financial fraud scheme—or the smartest economic move in modern history. 💡 What If This is the Plan All Along? • Bitcoin-backed national reserves become reality. • Debt cycles are no longer a problem—they become a trading strategy. • The Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury master market cycles instead of fighting them. • The average investor? Left chasing shadows in a manipulated system. 👀 Sounds insane? Maybe. But in a world where trillions are printed overnight, where governments engineer financial crises and solutions, and where crypto is no longer just “internet money” but a strategic asset, anything is possible. 🔥 What do you think? Is this the master plan, or just another conspiracy theory? Drop your thoughts below! #Bitcoin #Crypto #EconomicReset #Trump #FederalReserve #DebtCrisis #FinancialManipulation #Markets #Crypto2027
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by trushkovskiy
2
Russel 2000 Compared to General MarketTVC:RUT has continued to sell off since my last couple posts and I believe we could see a huge market correction this year if price doesn't look to stop selling. The next play on RUT I would like to see price pullback to the last breakout zone ($2,200) to confirm a continuation in trend This play also looks very familiar to the 2022 selloff with equal highs to our current price structure. Seeing that AMEX:SPY is at a higher high tells me there is market-wide divergence and a topping pattern could be in play. Now when we add CRYPTOCAP:BTC and $OTHER to the mix we can see bitcoin actually tops out first while Alts and SPX look to make one more leg up before crashing out. The Trend Reader at the lower tab has topped out and has a bearish crossing in the overbought zone indicating we can see a long term play to the downside.
TVC:RUT
by Nathanl19
RUS 2000 | Market Crash AheadDetailed analysis in regards to my latest video. Comparing RUS to the general markets we can see that SPX is overperforming which can be used as a leading indicator to prepare for a possible crash to come most likely mid year Q2 - Q4 and bleeding into 2026. I also added DJT to the mix and it also is underperforming to what the SPX is doing now days. What does this mean for crypto? We can see BTC attempt to make one more leg to the upside, no more than $300k and at least a 100% runup from current levels ~($108k). Altcoins will most likely look to rip Q2 - Q3 as BTC.D struggles to run any higher. DXY is also at a structural low ~(100) and will look to finish its goal to hit ~120. My original call since 2021 was to see BTC hit $300k by 2025 - 2026. We'll see if price action surprises me! My SPX call in 2023 also gladly hit $6,000..we'll see whats next to come👀
FX:US2000
by Nathanl19
Stock market correction in 2025??I personally believe we'll see a stock market correction in 2025. 1. 30yr treasury yield going higher while FED cut interest rates. Similar situation in 1970s and 1980s where we say a 50% correction in just 2 years in the 1970s (can't remember exact dates) 2. US 10yr/3m yield curve has turned positive. Last times it's done this has been 2000, 2008 and 2020. I'm guessing you know what happened each of those times. 3. Institutional investors increasing long contracts in the yen. The Japanese Yen is a 'risk-off' investment and investors tend to favour it when they don't have much faith in the stock market. 4. US have a volatile president in Trump. The power also seems to be getting to his head a bit - he disagrees with Fed Chair Powell over interest rates, despite not being as educated in economics. He has a lot of power right now and I don't think he will be able to stop a potential market crash for the first year or 2 of his presidency. 5. Back-to-back 20%+ years from the S&P500, could be due a pullback. These are some reasons, I have some more but I don't want to be sat here writing all day. Important to note that if you're a long term investor it's best to just ignore this. "Time in the markets beats timing the markets" as they say. But if you're a day trader I wouldn't be taking many long positions on stocks this year. Could be better to start looking at opportunities in the currency markets. Then again - you don't have to trust me. This isn't financial advice, just my opinion.
SP:SPXShort
by ciantrades
The worst case scenario for Ethereum!I'm gonna make it real simple. Inverted head and shoulders is the pattern in lower time frame, therefore the price can start going up from here, breaks 4k and there will be the ult season an all that and the price can go up to 5.5K. But If Ethereum loses the 3K support and fails to hold 2.8K we are doomed BUT you will get the chance to buy ethereum at 1K again but then imo the price will bounce back tries to break the 4K resistance and if it does then even 6-7K will be possible. if the worst case scenario happens alt coins won't drop that hard but many of them can form a double bottom pattern. So you might want to wait before buying and you might want to get yo $$$ ready to buy the dip.
by MISANTHROPE3
2
Nifty Weekend Update...alert!!!!Hey guys, currently nifty this week fall more then 4%, due to holidays FII are selling highly. If you see the chart you can see nifty currently just above of 50WMA after huge selling pressure it still above the 50WMA, if this will break next week onwards we will enter a bear market for short term period, so in my opinion this is now a crucial moment so keep cash in hand for buying in the dip. Another scenario if nifty will bounce break from this level or first breaking 50wma then trap all bears and then bounce back above 50WMA that will also good for nifty to continue its trend to 30K.
NSE:NIFTY
by finlabventure