Dow Jones and its Head and Shoulder May 5, 2020After its minor bull, Dow Jones is now at its resistance area and if we take a look at its 4 hour chart we could see the price is forming a head and shoulder pattern. If within several trading days the price break through its support area, there is a probability the index would continue its major bearish trend, and going back to around 18,000 or even lower.
Marketcrash
"Nobody Could've Seen this Coming" Is a Horse Sh1t Wall St. LieI was monitoring this ratio throughout 2019. Anyone following this could've seen that Gold was beginning to take US stocks's lunch money.
You can clearly see that US stock outperformance over Gold ended in late 2018. You can then see that a series of lower highs and lower lows were formed, and you can also see that multi-year rising trend support was violated with volatility behind it.
The trend already started, if you're late to the game, hop on now. Gold is going to outperform EM equities and US equities for YEARS.
It's my view that 1250-1300 (25%) is the max potential drawdown for Gold. For the S&P 500 and the Russell, the max drawdown is closer to 60-90%(!!!)
We are entering an extremely serious debt deflation. I like US Dollars and Gold as my two biggest allocations.
Also, if no one told you yet, stay the hell away from USO
Stock Market Crash 2020, begins this week.Don't get too excited, this is just a consolidation phase, i've done my homework and the market will fall to June 2013 lows.
$5,000 Mistake On SPCELet me walk you through one trade I took back in February. NYSE:SPCE
Waking up on Feb 25th, I noticed SPCE started tanking due to bad earnings. Recognizing this Head & Shoulder pattern wasn't difficult... At All!
Even though I had just started options trading the week before, I decided to trust my technical analysis opinion and took the trade. On Feb 25th I bought 3 $29 strike puts expiring 2/28 (2/28 the morning we bottomed out at $20).
Waking up the next day (Feb 26th) I sold all 3 contracts for a 80% return as I really didn't want to be greedy. Although as you see I should've trusted my TA and not let emotion come in between me and the bag.
Everything is a learning experience and part of the plan. Keep your head up, trade with confidence and let's get this bread.
Tata Motors - Still short. Really?As per my analysis there is no hope for tata Motors and it can be make more low. My Target is 49, 23 then 8 rupees. This stock is still a night mare for Investors
Are We At the TOP?!What are we in for?
Could this be the top of the market right now?
End of a market Cycle?
Maybe, seeing as the early warning signs are here. With similar structure to the previous cycle, at the top of a rising wedge/channel and the sell volume increasing... The signs do not look promising for continuation for sustained uptrend. The Market is always right, breaking the high and using as support on the weekly/monthly will prove this wrong no doubt.
How far can we see Dow Jones Drop? 15000?On market open Dow jones was trading around the 18000 level. It seems the coronavirus is really taking its effect. If we can see a drop into the 15000 level where the lows of 2015 are this will have erased 5 years of growth in simply weeks. Crazy movement we are seeing the past few weeks. If anyone is not familiar with dow jones it is an index containing 30 stock market companies in the United States. Index trading can be very volatile especially now but if we do see a pull back to the 15000 level i will be entering a long position as it is a great opportunity for the recovery period of the corona virus.
The 2020 Collapse (SP500)Self explanatory, moving at a rapid rate due to the catalyst known as COVID-19
Crash Comparison - 1929, 2000, 2008 and 2020
1929 - Crash
2000 - Crash
2008 -Crash
2020 - Crash
Which of the prior three major crashes most closely resemble the 2020 crash?
Certainly, not the 2000 crash, the initial drop is of equal magnitude, however the 2000 crash took over 365 days to reach that low from the highs, the 2020 crash has plumbed lower than 30% in just over 30 days.
Similar story for the 2008 initial crash, the final leg down in 2008 after the collapse of Lehman Brothers would be the closest match, but this is still not equal to the magnitude drop we are experiencing in 2020, when you consider that the post Lehman drop was 48% over 150 days, this equates to roughly 0.3% a day, the 2020 drop by comparison is closer to 3x times the rate of drop, at over 1.0% per day in decline.
Even the initial 1929 stock market drop, that eventually lead to the great depression took 3x times as long to reach the 30% range.
Yes, the macro environments for these drops were very different, i understand this.
But it is worth considering just how unique these markets are at present time, with a combination of automated trading, real-time news feeds, easier access for retail investors and far higher leverage than ever before, this creates a highly volatile trading environment that can pivot at a moments notice.
My personal belief is that the pain is not over, there will be a bounce at some point, however i will not be participating in that rally, i will be waiting to short.
I think the ultimate bottom will be between the three crashes highlighted here, not quite the 90% devastation of the 1929 crash, but also not a 'typical' crash of 50% either.
It may sound crazy now, but, i do believe that the SP-500 "COULD," emphasis on "COULD" be lower than at the 2008 peak before the market bottom, in other words, i believe that the last decade of market gains may very well be erased.
This will obviously be dependent on the handling of Covid19 by governments around the world, this is not due to the loss of life (although that would be a global tragedy), it is instead due to the wave of defaults and bankruptcies that could flow out of this crisis as a result of the social distancing policies that governments will HAVE TO, not may have to, but have to employ in order to flatten the curve.
This will include businesses closing for for several weeks, potentially even several months, this in turn will cripple airlines, cruise ships, hotels, casinos and a host of other industries. Many of which are currently looking to the federal government for a bailout, this is also not mentioning the small businesses and how they will be impacted, or the knock on effects that this will have on employment, or lack thereof.
In short, the economic impacts and the societal impacts that will flow from the Covid19 virus are far-reaching, the macro environment is nothing like 2000 or 2008, the system is MORE unstable, not less, couple this with the potential for 1929 style unemployment and you have a recipe for disaster.
-TradingEdge
#US30 Market Crash Or Buying Opportunity? (Cypher, Trend Line)Traders, there is blood on streets and this cam be good buying opportunity. We have trend line, cypher pattern completion in the zone. Target first 38.2 fib and take ti from there.
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Comment below and let me know what you think of this analysis and what is yours? I welcome all comments, feedback, ideas and sharing of knowledge.
Have a great trading week!
SP500 Top, 50% retrace back down to 2800Looks like we could be dropping down to $3000 fairly quickly and then settling down around $2800. I think that the Coronavirus in combo with a possible top being reached could result in a major retrace. This is forward thinking and doesn't have the usual evidence that TA should. You can consider this to be speculation at best, this is certainly not financial advice.
Are Markets Really Crashing? (An S&P500 Study) #SnP500Traders, If you have been following the news items on mainstream media or social media, people all over the world seem to be discussing recent fall in indices indicating another market crash and a possible recession. In this study lets look at S&P500 index from almost purely technical point of view.
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Comment below and let me know what you think of this analysis and what is your opinion in this matter? Are you trading S&P500?
Have a great trading week!
Dr. Copper Back at Key Zone. Recessionary Trends Incoming?Copper is back at the major 2.50 zone I have spoken about in the past. Here is a weekly chart to show you how crucial it is:
Copper of course is known as Dr. Copper due to it indicating the health of the world economy. And of course China consumes more than 50% of the copper supply.
On the daily, we had multiple swings on an uptrend but recently, had a big fall from the 2.86 zone back to this key zone of 2.50. We have yet to make our first lower high swing in this downtrend. This swing could be forming at 2.62, but it requires a break and close below recent lows, taking us below 2.50.
We know how coronavirus has impacted China, but perhaps copper has not priced in the recessionary trends that will come if this virus worsens. Less people travelling, less people spending money, supply chains getting disrupted all will lead to recessionary trends.
We could see this break here in Copper.
S&P and Many Markets to Make L-H Swing? Fed Cutting Rates 100%!Many equity charts look similar. Amazing how gains from October.3rd/2019- February 20th/2020 got erased in 6 days.
We are now in a downtrend, and we should expect a lower high to be made. I am looking for this swing as long as we remain below the break out zone indicated by the arrow at the 3230 zone. Have some fib targets to watch out for where I will await and see some sort of price action indicating a potential lower high swing.
Remember, a lower high swing is NOT confirmed until we make a lower low, meaning and break and close below recent lows at 2854. If you await that break, it means yes, your risk vs reward may not be the greatest, but the probability of success is higher. Whereas a red candle at just a fib level will give you a better risk vs reward, but a lower probability of success.
What I am watching closely is the Bond market. If I see stocks making a pullback, AND see Bonds go up as well, I would be dubious of markets holding onto gains. If stocks move up AND we see bonds falling, we are seeing money leave bonds and go back into stocks.
Of course bonds are now being traded for capital gains rather than yield lol. People are frontrunning Fed cuts. We now know the Fed is cutting 100%, with fed futures showing the probability of the Fed cutting this month by 50 basis points around 95%.
www.cmegroup.com
Goldman Sachs also came out saying they expect 75 basis points to be cut from now until June 2020.
If you follow my work, I have been saying this would happen, and that central banks and governments needed an excuse to save face. Enter coronavirus. Economy was already falling apart before this virus. Now they can say they have to cut rates and go back to QE even when they do not really want to because the economy was booming before until this virus came along.
Gold pullback to Resistance now turned Support ZoneGold is back at retesting the flip zone. Many are confused on why Gold fell as everything fell except Bonds and the VIX. This is likely to do with margin calls forcing traders to close positions even in safety assets.
I am still bullish on Gold going forward as it is a confidence crisis asset when people begin losing confidence in governments, in central banks, and in the fiat money. Gold breaking into all time new highs against many other currencies tell us what is coming.
Going forward this does not change. We will see Gold break up higher against the USD (and the USD CAN be moving higher at the same time-read idea linked below).
As long as Gold maintains above the swing shown by the arrow at the 1450 zone, we are still in a bullish trend.
THE Cryptocurrency HyperwaveRSI right now corresponds exactly with that of Feb 2016, just before the 16 halving.
Cryptocurrencies will signify the next DOTCOM boom x70.
Everything is possible, nothing is impossible.
In a few years, people will come back to see this chart and gasp.
Although I wish to see the future, I simply cannot.
This chart is a mirror of what the next few years will look like.
A complete paradigm shift. People sold their houses and cars in 2017 to buy Bitcoin.
People will be selling their bodies to get into the next cryptocurrency hyperwave.
Human greed will be on display like never before.
Do not forget, it will all come crashing and burning at some point.
Just it has always done. Just as it always will. This is how cycles work.
US30 Crash Course To 21555.55| Market Crash| 28th February 2020Market Crash 2020
We are in the state of anxiety. Traders left with disappointment after president Trump failed to reassure that the virus can contain through US.
This epidemic disrupted international trade and travel. Experts says it took one and a half year to develop the coronavirus vaccine while the disease spreading faster.
The latest slide began Wednesday night, after a news conference by President Donald Trump failed to reassure investors and more new cases of the disease were reported outside China than inside for the first time.
“The number of confirmed cases of coronavirus is on the rise, and so is the number of countries that have infections. Dealers are dreading a pandemic as they are afraid economic activity will be reduced as lockdowns will disrupt the business world.
For me, we are just in the starting period of apocalypse. This could be worse than market financial crisis 2008.
The global economy is on course for its weakest year since the 2008 financial crisis as efforts to contain epidemic has hit manufacturing activity in China and disrupted international trade and travel, Bank of America predicted. Earlier, Goldman Sachs cut its outlook for U.S. companies’ profit growth to zero.
Frankly at this stage after the coronavirus slow down in travel plans that has busted the global supply chain apart, it will be a miracle if we avoid a recession. If companies can’t get the parts, then they can’t produce the goods that make the economy hum.
The Dow Jones US30 prediction to crash to 21555.55.
To be continue..
Regards,
Zezu Zaza
When Is The Next Stock Market Crash?First of all, I have zero financial knowledge. I am not educated and finance is not my profession. I barely understand your language. I'm only a technical guy.
Looking at charts, I have predicted some possible targets of the next stock market crash. The worst scenario begins around $2600's. Hopefully this never happens. Maybe there's only 1% probability or maybe less. According to my analysis, S&P 500 is more likely going back $2600 any time sooner. And i think AMZN will crash more than 50%
Not all my predictions are accurate. Nobody is 100% accurate. But, what if I'm right? Are you ready for that?
Here are my targets
S&P current price: $3103 / 04-Dec-19
1. 3090 - Already hit and please ignore this
2. 3045 - 1.87% / 01-Nov-19
3. 2925 - 5.73% / 10-Oct-19
4. 2845 - 8.30 / 26-Aug-19
5. 2670 - 13.95% / 30-Jan-19
6. 960 - 69.0% / 23-Jul-09
Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice.
Trade safe,
Atilla Yurtseven
Is the market going to crash? An overview of the current marketDo you think the overall market sentiment/psychology is beginning to shift or change due to the current outbreak of the corona-virus?
The current chart you are looking at has a Gann Fan placed at the DJI's all-time low price from the year 1932 that was a result of the Great Depression that started in 1929. If you are unfamiliar with what a Gann Fan is - it shows a relationship between time and price and acts as a support and resistance, and it also shows the strength of an overall trend. W.D. Gann - The creator of all Gann Indicators etc., believes that the market is geometric and cyclical in nature - just like the saying, "History tends to repeat itself." and "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." Gann was much more complex than just this, but I am not here to fully explain all of his workings, however, I have found his indicators to be extremely useful and valuable.
With that being said, there is a "rule of all angles" that applies to the Gann Fan's Angles - The rule states that when the market (price) breaks one angle, it will move toward the next one, this can be applied to up and down-trends, and can happen over a long period of time. This has been respected through time, although, it is not "scientific" - as you can place the angles anywhere on a chart as you please. However, the best place to utilize them are on significant swing highs and lows.
It is very fascinating to see how this specific set of angles have been respected as both supports and resistances as time progresses (more specifically - as of the late 1980's to current for this example), you can see that is has been respected time and time again. Is it a coincidence that the market crashed in the year 2000 as it reached the 2/1 angle and was treated as a resistance - only later to find support on the 3/1 angle? And again being rejected by the 2/1 angle in 2008 and finding support on the 3/1 again in 2009? We know that a strong resistance typically doesn't break on the first time and that it may take a couple tries... Is that going to be the case now as we have recently reached the 1/1 angle? We are now in "the middle ground" and there is a large gap between the next support / resistance, which way will we go from here? Time will tell!
The overall purpose of this post is to raise awareness and provide a new perspective to consider and think about. As I mentioned earlier - History tends to repeat itself, and I am a firm believer that events in life (as well as the market) are cyclical.
If you like my content, please feel free to 'like' this post and 'subscribe' to my channel for more updates, trading set-ups, and more.
Do you agree or disagree with what was said, or if you would like to add a comment, please do so below!
* P.S. - You may also drag the map and check to see the origin / placement of the Gann Fan, it is very interesting to look back through history and see how the market played out!
Thank you
*This is not financial advice*
DJI retesting 200MA on dailyDow is retesting the 200MA on the daily. This has been support for over a year since the last major breakage in late 2018. If we can't hold, we will see more downside.
DOW 800 Points?? If SPY doesn't hold, we will see new lowsSpy moving down, if we break this support, things won't be looking good. Unless you entered EGO, TLT, and Gold with me before the weekend. If the fed cuts rates, TLT will bounce.
Puts on Roku and FB hit, took profits and now we are in the play for free.
DotcomJack
Always do your own research.
S&P Dead Cat Bounce?So I have shorted the S&P on the 4 hour due to this pattern:
Very nice break, and as you can see on the 4 hour we have YET to make a lower high swing in this downtrend move. Trends are composed of multiple swings.
I do like what I see on the daily chart. When an instrument has moved down close to 3% in a day, it is likely over extended. I can see a bounce here before a move down lower forming our first lower high swing on the daily chart and also a head and shoulder pattern. So a dead cat bounce perhaps on the cards here. But to me, it is just plain old market structure.
Use HG divergance to predicate US market crashing in 2007 In Oct 2007, Cooper RSI diverged from price, showed a downtrend.
This predicated us stockmarket crashing 9 months in advance.
In Dec 2008, Cooper RSI diverged from price again showing an uptrend.
This predicted the bottom of us market bottom.
